Political Geography: Eastern Europe / Publication Year: within 5 Years and within 10 Years

1. What is Serbia’s “Project 5000” and why Should we be concerned?

Author:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the potential consequences and concerns surrounding Serbia’s “Project 5000,” emphasizing why it warrants attention not just from neighboring states in the Western Balkans but also from NATO. Given the geopolitical landscape, any escalation of conflict within this region directly impacts NATO’s strategic interests, considering its significant presence in the Balkans. Moreover, Russia’s overt military backing of Serbia and its advocacy for a militaristic approach towards Kosovo are of particular concern. This stance by Russia can be interpreted as an attempt to embolden Serbia to adopt a military intervention in Kosovo, serving dual purposes for Russia: shifting international focus from the brutal invasion of Ukraine and undermining NATO’s credibility and influence in the region. The unfolding situation underscores a broader strategy by Russia to exploit regional tensions, thereby challenging the Euro-Atlantic integration process. Such maneuvers not only threaten to destabilize the Western Balkans but also aim to fracture European unity and weaken NATO’s strategic coherence, particularly as it pertains to its eastern flank and broader engagement in conflict resolution and peacekeeping efforts.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

2. Little substance, considerable impact Russian influence in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro

Author:: Wouter Zweers and Niels Drost
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This Clingendael report explores the role of the Russian Federation in Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. It examines Russia’s objectives in its relations with the three countries, as well the various sources of influence the Kremlin holds in each of the three countries. The report places this analysis within the changed geopolitical circumstances resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s main objectives for the Western Balkans are threefold. First, the Kremlin seeks to project great power status globally. Second, it seeks to obstruct the Euro-Atlantic integration of the region by advocating against NATO and EU integration and by raising instabilities. Third, the Kremlin uses the Balkans, especially the Kosovo issue, as an argument for its foreign policy agenda elsewhere, particularly when it comes to defending its perceived dominance over its near abroad. Instead of building a sustainable, all-encompassing, and meaningful relation with Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), and Montenegro, Russia instead pursues an opportunistic approach depending on fragmented entry points for influence in each country. The Kremlin displays moderate ambitions for building positive relationships with the three countries, which is reflected also in the instruments it uses to influence the region. It nurtures contacts with, and influence through, a wide range of individual politicians, the Orthodox Church, the media and malign proxy groups, making use of energy links as well as local tensions and historical memories. Moscow pursues this approach deliberately, and it has proven relatively successful. At the political level, Russia’s clout stretches especially to (pro-)Serb politicians, who often make use of similar narratives and use Russia as an external supporter to promote their own ideas. In particular, its position on Kosovo, Russian support for Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and its Orthodox Church links remain important entry points for Russia’s political influence in the region at large. Of the three countries, entry points for Russian influence are most widespread In Serbia, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina. Economically, Russia’s influence is outperformed substantially by that of the EU, especially in terms of trade. Russia’s far-reaching influence in the energy sectors of BiH and Serbia, however, yield substantial political leverage, even if its investments often prove economically inviable. When it comes to military influence, Russia seeks to maintain its military cooperation with its main partner, Serbia, while also supporting the militarisation of Republika Srpska. Belgrade is satisfied with its current degree of cooperation with Moscow but seeks to avoid becoming Russia’s foothold in the Balkans. Factually, Russia is only one of multiple security actors in the Balkans, overshadowed by NATO and challenged by China. While presenting itself as a partner to Serbia and Republika Srpska in particular, Russia also resorts to malign instruments which have often proven to be effective in shaping the political environment of the Western Balkans. Lacking a military presence in the region, Russia supports far-right nationalist figures and organisations, which generally better resemble organised crime groups than paramilitary organisations, to attain its goal of destabilisation by stirring up polarisation and anti-Western sentiment. The Kremlin is perhaps most successful in the field of media and disinformation. Russian propaganda penetrates Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina through Russian-funded portals, local media and social media. Russian disinformation and narratives have penetrated the region to such an extent that considerable sections of society hold a positive image of Russia and its political leadership. In all these fields, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has moderately affected but not fully altered Russia’s approach towards Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro. While the invasion has led to sharper dividing lines between Russia and the West and decreases in Russian financial and diplomatic capacities, we observe continuity in terms of Russian strategies and objectives. Russia’s sources of influence in the three countries have been moderately strained, among other causes as a result of BiH and Serbia’s first steps to diversify energy sources and Western pressure to diminish their political and security links with the Russian Federation. For the time being, this has not yet affected Moscow’s ability to act as a spoiler to the Euro-Atlantic integration of the three countries. The extent to which the European Union and NATO are effective in countering Russian influence in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro will be part of a follow-up Clingendael report to be published in fall 2023. As part of the same research project, analyses of societal and political perceptions towards Russia in the three countries will be published in summer 2023 by Clingendael partners the Atlantic Council of Montenegro, the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia, and the Atlantic Initiative in BiH.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Disinformation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

3. Double-Edged Sword: How to Engage Returnee Networks in Migrant Reintegration

Author:: Victoria Rietig and Sophie Meiners
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Migrants increasingly have a say in migration policies. Diaspora and migrant associations rightfully step into the spotlight to bring their much-needed perspectives to policy development. But the work of associations of returned migrants has stayed in the shadows despite their having firsthand experiences that can guide the design of reintegration policies.
Topic:: Migration, Networks, Reintegration, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

4. Security Guarantees for Ukraine: Until NATO Membership, Extending the Joint Expeditionary Force Is the Best Option

Author:: Benjamin Tallis
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: There are no security “guarantees,” but NATO membership is as close as it gets – and has long proven its effectiveness in deterring Russian aggression. It is thus the only real option for Ukraine – and for wider European security. Addressing the lack of political will to recognize this, especially in Washington and Berlin, means finding an interim solution that provides credible, collective security in the meantime and fosters more durable, fairly delivered European security in the long term.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

5. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Rethinking the EU’s Eastern Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy

Author:: Guntram Wolff, Alexandra Gritz, Stefan Meister, and Milan Nič
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The stagnating EU accession process needs political will and procedural changes allowing eastern candidates to advance. In the meantime, they should be more supported to use the full potential of existing opportunities for gradual economic and sectoral integration with the EU. An upgraded Eastern Partnership needs a comprehensive security dimension linking resilience, connectivity, and defense policy, as well as cooperation in the area of the Common Security and Defence Policy. The protracted regional conflicts (in Moldova and the South Caucasus) require a more active EU engagement as existing OSCE formats continue to be blocked, and Russia’s role and military presence weaken. New openings for conflict resolution mean higher demand for the EU’s diplomatic, monitoring, and peacekeeping capacities. A new eastern Neighborhood Policy should be designed for the wider region, connecting the Black Sea and the South Caucasus with Central Asia and thus creating viable alternatives to the competing geoeconomic and governance “offers” of China, Russia, and Turkey.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Governance, European Union, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

6. CEFTA: Trade and Growth Patterns Fifteen Years since Establishment

Author:: Nina Vujanović
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This research report investigates the trade and growth benefits of the CEFTA agreement for its members. Although the countries have not reached their end goal of membership of the European Union, the report shows that CEFTA has supported their economic growth. However, there is trade heterogeneity in terms of the extent to which individual countries use CEFTA value added in their manufacturing exports. Less-developed economies seem to rely more on regional (CEFTA) supply chains, while manufacturing-based economies are increasingly coming to rely on EU supply chains. The countries have not built a strong export advantage abroad, as very little of their value added is used in EU exports.
Topic:: European Union, Economic Growth, Trade, Supply Chains, and CEFTA
Political Geography:: Moldova, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia

7. Women's Security in Local Communities

Author:: Lajla Leko and Sabahudin Harčević
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:: With the project "Improvement of Women's Safety and Security in Local Communities - AwareBiH", CSS aims to point out the state of security from the point of view of women, therefore it is necessary that some of the biggest cities, namely Mostar, Sarajevo and Banja Luka, are bearers of positive changes in the implementation of the project's results. In addition, the project aims to show the ability of women in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) to influence changes that would make their environment safer. This topic is not discussed in BiH as much as it should be, while the security sector is still perceived as a sector dominated by men. Therefore, this project will help society and decisionmakers to better understand the needs and feelings of women in BiH about their own security.
Topic:: Security, Law Enforcement, Women, Violence, and Survey
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

8. Anti-corruption Capacities of Public Procurement in the Security Sector: Report for 2020 and 2021 - Part I

Author:: Erdin Halimić, Dajana Bašić, and Aleksandar Maletić
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:: Investigations into corruption in the security sector are often focused on contracting, that is, on the stages of public procurement in which civil servants prepare and sign contracts with suppliers of equipment and services and manage their implementation. However, in order to discover the functioning mechanisms of public procurement and potential critical points for the emergence of corruption, we must investigate the entire public procurement procedure and then prepare appropriate conclusions and recommendations for its suppression. In our case, this implies an indepth analysis of relevant normative acts, practices and challenges in public procurement in the security sector. The report was made on the basis of qualitative and quantitative parameters based on which the anti-corruption capacities of 13 security sector institutions from different levels of government in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) were measured and evaluated. The time period covered by the research refers to two years, 2020 and 2021.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Government, Law Enforcement, Institutions, and Public Procurement
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

9. Anti-corruption Capacities of Public Procurement in the Security Sector: Report for 2020 and 2021 - Part II

Author:: Erdin Halimić, Ajla Popović, Haris Vejezović, Aleksandar Maletić, and Dajana Bašić
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:: Investigations into corruption in the security sector are often focused on contracting, that is, on the stages of public procurement in which civil servants prepare and sign contracts with suppliers of equipment and services and manage their implementation. However, in order to discover the functioning mechanisms of public procurement and potential critical points for the emergence of corruption, we must investigate the entire public procurement procedure and then prepare appropriate conclusions and recommendations for its suppression. In our case, this implies an indepth analysis of relevant normative acts, practices and challenges in public procurement in the security sector. The report was made on the basis of qualitative and quantitative parameters based on which the anti-corruption capacities of 12 security sector institutions from different levels of government in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) were measured and evaluated. The time period covered by the research refers to two years, 2020 and 2021.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Government, Law Enforcement, Institutions, and Public Procurement
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

10. A Year of War: A Reporter's View of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (3/23/23)

Author:: Joshua Yaffa and Keith Gessen
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year, Joshua Yaffa, who spent a decade living and reporting in Russia, has traveled across Ukraine—where he also has deep experience as a journalist—witnessing the war up close and publishing regularly in The New Yorker. He will share his impressions from his numerous reporting trips, which began in the early, fraught days in Kyiv, when the capital was the primary target of the Russian military; to Kharkiv, a historically Russian-speaking city that has faced relentless rocket and artillery fire; from the decimated towns of the Donbas to Zaporizhzhia, a regional capital in the south that became a waystation for Ukrainians fleeing the horrors of Mariupol and elsewhere. Yaffa will describe how the conflict looks and feels on the ground, whether for civilians trapped under bombardment or newly enlisted soldiers. He will also discuss a number of key questions at the start of the war's second year. What has been the role and effect of Western military aid? What sort of end to the fighting is possible? And how will both Russia and Ukraine be forever changed as a result?
Topic:: Conflict, Journalism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

11. Jewish Female Mental Health Professionals between Poland, the Nazis, and America (3/29/23)

Author:: Klara Naszkowska and Christopher Caes
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: The forced migration of the Jewish people from Europe to the United States in 1933-1941 is one of the most significant phenomena in twentieth–century intellectual history. However, close to nothing has been written on over eighty Jewish women mental-health professionals (mostly psychoanalysts) who fled Nazi persecution to the US, where they became “essential workers” in mental-health care when America joined World War II. Their professional contributions notwithstanding, they are now neglected, understudied, and at risk of being forgotten. The presentation introduces the diaspora of Polish Jewish mental-health professionals: psychoanalysts, social workers, child welfare workers, social psychologists, and body psychotherapists. It will discuss their personal and professional biographies, including family and religious backgrounds, education and career patterns, experiences of exile and (non)belonging, their relationships with the past, and the construction of national, spiritual and cultural identities, with a special attention to Jewish identity. The presentation is based on an ongoing research project located at the intersection of Jewish gender and women’s studies, personal and oral history, and immigration. The primary source of information on the women under investigation is archival personal accounts: unpublished memoirs, correspondence, interviews, diaries, remnants, memories, and post–memories, along with original interviews with family members, friends, and colleagues.
Topic:: History, Holocaust, Forced Migration, Jewish community, and Nazi Germany
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Poland, North America, and United States of America

12. A Conversation with Azovstal Defender Illia Samoilenko (2/24/23)

Author:: Illia Samoilenko and Elise Giuliano
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: 28 year-old Ukrainian Lieutenant Illia Samoilenko was the deputy commander of the National Guards of Azov. Days before the Azovstal surrender in May, Lieutenant Samoilenko held a news conference broadcast live from a bunker beneath the steelworks. At this press conference, he described for two hours the desperate conditions that wounded soldiers faced. He also said that he and all the others saw themselves as “dead men.” Samoilenko was held in solitary confinement as a prisoner of war by the Russian Federation for 120 days before he was released in a prisoner swap last month.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Azovstal
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Mariupol

13. Propaganda Addiction: How Russians Learned to Trust the Kremlin's Falsehoods

Author:: Anton Shirikov
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the world was shocked to learn how often Russians fell for the Kremlin’s pro-war propaganda pushed through loyal state media. Some citizens even trusted television reports more than they believed their own family members in Ukraine. In his talk, Dr. Shirikov will explain how authoritarian media can gain and cultivate such public trust, presenting evidence from surveys and experiments he conducted in Russia in recent years. He will discuss whether Russians are–as scholars often think–sophisticated and discerning news consumers, why they find propaganda messages credible, and why so few of them seek alternative information sources. This research offers insights into how Vladimir Putin’s regime manages public opinion and maintains acceptance of the war.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

14. THE IMPACT OF PUNISHMENT, BUDGET SPENDING, AND SOCIAL STIGMATIZATION ON FISCAL EVASION: THE CASE OF KOSOVO

Author:: Mentor Gashi and Ramadan Beqiri
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The purpose of this paper was to identify several factors that have an impact on tax evasion. Tax evasion is considered a problem for many different countries in the world, simultaneously attracting the curiosity of researchers. The study employed a convenience sampling technique and collected 221 questionnaires in Kosovo. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistical analysis, linear regression and are reflected in the matrix table of correlation coefficients. In this research, the statistical significance results appear the size of punishment, perception of spending of budget, and social stigma that has effected tax evasion. In this way, as lower the punishment for evaders effected non-encourage citizens to notify the tax evasion. Perception of non-spent properly of budget effected non-encourage citizens to notify the tax evasion. Also, when the lower was a social stigma for the evaders, it increased their willingness to tax evasion.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Budget, Tax Systems, and Tax Evasion
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

15. POLICY OF RAISING THE CAPACITY OF LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENTS FOR MANAGEMENT OF EMERGENCIES

Author:: Samed Karovic, Jasmina Brankovic, Sinisa Domazet, and Jelena Jesic
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Local self-governments (LSGs) cannot effectively manage emergencies. To overcome this problem, it is necessary to find action policies that would facilitate the increase of capacities of LSGs in such situations. The starting point for defining the policy was collecting data on the current abilities and capacities of LSGs in AP Vojvodina. The research covered 40% of the total number of LSGs and more than 64% of the population in the AP of Vojvodina. A combined open-ended survey questionnaire was constructed for data collection. The data was collected in field conditions through online procedures, direct sending of written surveys, and direct discussion of project implementation leaders. The statistical analysis of data identified that the legal aspect of LSGs and emergencies was not harmonized with other institutional documents at the level of LSGs. Most LSGs had serious difficulties in managing emergencies, especially civil protection. The platform is envisaged to facilitate raising the prevention capacity of LSGs by integrating all relevant information to provide early warnings and indications for implementing corresponding organizational, technical, and economic measures to deal with emergencies.
Topic:: Security, Law, Business, Knowledge Management, and Emergencies
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

16. EFFECT OF CORRUPTION ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT INFLOWS IN COUNTRIES OF THE WESTERN BALKANS

Author:: Artan Hajdini, Lum Collaku, and Safet Merovci
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of corruption on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Western Balkans countries, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Albania. Secondary data from The World Bank, Transparency International, and International Monetary Fund databases were utilized to complete this study for 2012-2020. The built model of multiple linear regression included four independent variables, namely: Corruption Perception Index (CPI), Western Balkan Corruption Ranking (WBCR), Exchange Rate (EXG), and Inflation Rate (INFL), as well as FDI as a dependent variable, and data effects were analyzed through the SPPS scientific research software program. The results found that if CPI and WBCR were to increase by one unit, FDI would decrease by 0.088, namely 0.624, while if EXG and INFL were to increase by one unit, FDI would increase by 0.165, namely 0.236. In order to fight corruption and potentially attract more foreign direct investment, the governments of these countries should work to harmonize their anti-corruption laws with those of the European Union. In order to prevent the negative consequences of FDI inflows, they should also maintain a balanced rate of inflation, which entails stabilizing exchange rate fluctuations.
Topic:: Corruption, Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Policy, and Inflation
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

17. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM NORTH MACEDONIA

Author:: Katerina Shapkova Kocevska
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: In this paper, we studied the impact of public education expenditure on GDP per capita in North Macedonia from 1991 to 2020. The main questions we examined were: 1) What is the relationship between public education expenditure and GDP per capita in the country in the short run?; 2) Does a long-term relationship between the aforementioned variables exist?; and 3) What are the policy implications? This research was based on the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, originally developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The empirical estimations produced interesting findings. In the short run, the relationship between public spending on education and GDP per capita in North Macedonia was negative and statistically significant. The long-term relationship between the variables remained negative but statistically insignificant. These results were robust and consistent with results from earlier empirical studies. The results suggested that government expenditures on education did not contribute to economic growth in North Macedonia in the analyzed period, ceteris paribus. From a public policy standpoint, we concluded that intervention in the education system's financing is necessary to facilitate the transformation of education expenditures into productive human capital and enhance the nation's economic development.
Topic:: Development, Education, Economic Growth, Human Capital, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and North Macedonia

18. BANK PROFITABILITY DETERMINANTS: EVIDENCE FROM KOSOVO AND ALBANIA

Author:: Vese Qehaja-Keka, Skender Ahmeti, and Muhamet Aliu
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This research aims to examine the factors that impact the profitability of commercial banks in Kosovo and Albania. Profitability is crucial in the financial sector as it directly affects policymakers, regulators, and bank management. The study focuses on several determinants of bank profitability, including the number of employees, loan interest rate, non-performing loans, and total loans. The study employed quarterly secondary data spanning from 2010 to 2020, resulting in 400 observations. The analysis used multiple linear regression, influenced by the huge number of observations and the applicability of ordinary least squares (OLS) for such studies. This method allowed for a thorough examination of the interactions between the dependent and independent variables, providing a more in-depth understanding of the factors driving bank profitability. The statistical significance was determined using software such as STATA and SPSS. The dependent variables in the analysis are return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). The findings reveal that the loan interest rate, total loans, and non-performing loans significantly influence the profitability of the analyzed banks in Albania and Kosovo. Furthermore, the total number of loans and employees are statistically significant determinants of ROE. These findings provide valuable insights for bank management and policymakers in enhancing bank profitability and stability.
Topic:: Economics, Management, Banking, and Loans
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania

19. EVALUATION OF THE PRINCIPLE OF TAX FAIRNESS IN THE TAX ON INCOME OF NATURAL PERSONS IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA

Author:: Sejdefa Dzafche
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The paper analyzed the development stages in the taxation of the income of natural persons in the Republic of North Macedonia through the prism of their compliance with the theoretical approaches in regulating the matter of income taxation. For this purpose, the initial stage of this research was the review of the impact of frequent amendments to the regulatory framework (relevant legislation) on the realization of the principles of vertical and horizontal justice. In the analysis of the normative-legal framework, the primary focus was the regulation’s influence on the realization of the principle of justice in taxation in the legal system of the Republic of North Macedonia (RNM). Additionally, the teleological method was used to identify the level of realization of the goals and functions of the RNM tax system. In that context, the effects of income taxation on the redistributive function were analyzed. The basic hypothesis from which the paper starts is that the frequent changes and modifications in income taxation concepts resulted in violating social-political principles in taxation. The research results indicate an inconsistency in the development of the system of income taxation of natural persons in RNM, which leads to a violation of the vertical and horizontal justice and the redistributive function of the income tax.
Topic:: Reform, Tax Systems, and Redistributive Function
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and North Macedonia

20. LEVERAGING EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT FOR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE: SATISFACTION AND WORK MOTIVATION MANAGEMENT

Author:: Faruk Ahmeti
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Companies must continually adapt to technological advancements to gain a competitive edge and enhance performance. Active employee engagement plays a crucial role in achieving and improving performance, necessitating promoting motivation and job satisfaction. This study explores the relationship between motivation, job satisfaction, and employee performance, with employee engagement as a mediator. Specifically, the research focuses on Information Technology (IT) companies in Kosovo and various locations across the European Union involved in different projects. The sample for this study comprises 112 respondents selected through convenient sampling. The research model is analyzed using Partial Least Square (PLS) analysis with SmartPLS 3.0 software. The empirical findings indicate that motivation positively influences employees’ engagement and performance in various IT positions. However, job satisfaction has no direct impact or exerts a relatively low influence. Nonetheless, employee engagement significantly enhances employee performance by mediating the effects of motivation and job satisfaction. The research findings have significant managerial implications, emphasizing the importance of actively promoting motivation, innovation, and job satisfaction to increase employee involvement and achieve desired outcomes.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Employment, Business, and Performance Evaluation
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

21. UKRAINIAN MIGRATION DURING THE FIRST YEAR AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE RUSSIAN ARMED CONFLICT IN 2022

Author:: Rossen Kostadinov Koroutchev
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study examines the evolution of Ukrainian refugees during the first year after the start of the full-scale armed conflict on 24 February 2022, which resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis and high levels of migration both within Ukraine and towards Europe. Using official statistics, the changes in border crossings from Ukraine to neighboring countries during the first year of the conflict are investigated. Additionally, surveys conducted with Ukrainian refugees in several European countries and author interviews conducted in Bulgaria, Spain, and Germany reveal the specific needs of refugees and the main challenges to successful integration into host labor markets and societies. The Temporary Protection Directives and other local protection programs are analyzed in this study, accompanied by a comprehensive discussion on similar initiatives. The primary conclusion drawn from this research affirms the presence of substantial challenges in the successful integration of Ukrainian refugees into host societies, despite the efforts made by the respective governments.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Borders, and Integration
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Eastern Europe

22. UNPACKING GENDER DYNAMICS IN ALBANIAN JOURNALISM: A POST-COMMUNIST PERSPECTIVE

Author:: Jonila Godole
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study provides evidence of the challenges faced by women journalists in Albania after the fall of communism based on a nationwide survey of 295 journalists. Despite an increase in the number of women journalists, their emancipation in journalism is not necessarily implied. Women journalists tend to be confined to reporting on “soft news” sections or cultural and social topics, reinforcing traditional gender roles. Many women journalists conform to societal expectations and adopt gender stereotypes to exert influence while facing obstacles such as a male-dominated hierarchy, self-censorship, and pressures from family and editorial supervisors. Female journalists who make a name for themselves often cover male-dominated topics, following a masculine logic to gain respect and struggling to maintain their femininity. The study sheds light on the challenges and complexities women journalists face in Albania, providing insights into the gender dynamics within the media industry.
Topic:: Women, Journalism, Censorship, Gender, and Soft News
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Albania

23. THE ROLE OF SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE PROCESS OF INFORMING THE PUBLIC ABOUT DISASTER RISKS

Author:: Vladimir M. Cvetkovic, Aleksandra Nikolic, and Aleksandar Ivanov
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Social media informs the public about the most important events and conveys important information. Before, during, and after disasters, social media are used to disseminate information about disasters and collect data relevant to the implementation of preparedness, response, and recovery activities and measures. Social networks are effective in disseminating information and warnings, as well as in educating the public. The subject of the research is examining the influence of demographic factors on the effectiveness of social media in informing the public about the risks of disasters. Using an online survey questionnaire and according to the snowball principle, a survey of 247 respondents was conducted in 2022. The research results show no statistically significant relationship between the respondents’ education level and the assessment of the effectiveness of social media reporting on disasters. Using social media can improve communication between stakeholders in disaster management and facilitate coordination of efforts, fostering communication and allocation of resources. To effectively use social media in disaster management, decision-makers in the disaster management system must be aware of new technologies, their disadvantages and advantages, and ways to collect and analyze data from social networks.
Topic:: Social Media, Risk, Disaster Management, Public Service, and Information
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

24. THE IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT ON ARMENIA'S FOREIGN TRADE: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Author:: Diana Galoyan and Diana Matevosyan
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This article aimed to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Armenia’s foreign trade. The research problem was to analyze how the conflict influenced Armenia’s export and import patterns regarding geographical directions and product structure. The objectives were to examine the changes in trade turnover and identify shifts in geographical trade directions and trade structure. The study employed various statistical analysis tools, including dynamic series indicators, structural analysis, time series modeling, trend and moving average approximation, and extrapolation. Through these methods, the study evaluated the effects of the conflict on Armenia’s foreign trade. The key results indicated a positive impact of the conflict on trade turnover, with increased trade activity in various geographical directions. Export diversification was also observed as a result of the conflict. Notably, re-export played a significant role in the unprecedented growth of Armenia’s trade turnover during this period. In conclusion, the findings suggest that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict had a discernible influence on Armenia’s foreign trade, leading to changes in trade patterns and increased trade activity. The study highlights the importance of the re-exports role in analyzing trade dynamics.
Topic:: Economy, Exports, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Armenia

25. LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENT, COMMUNITY, AND SOCIAL SERVICE DELIVERY IN KOSOVO

Author:: Ferdi Kamberi and Zeqir Hashani
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Community development is vital in networking and creating social capital. Local governments in Kosovo cooperate closely with their communities by offering public and social services, inclusivity, and social integration. This cooperation increases active citizenship, community development, social welfare, and local democracy. This paper aims to research and analyze the relationship between local governments and their communities, focusing on providing social services. The applied methodology included a quantitative survey of 300 respondents from three municipalities: Pristina, Fushe Kosove, and Obilic, targeting citizens aged 18 and above of both genders. The results show that local authorities in these municipalities offer community services and include their communities in policy-making and decision-making. While they also offer social services, community-based services should be restructured, and local authorities should pay more attention to empowering the community more comprehensively.
Topic:: Social Services, Community, Service Delivery, and Local Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

26. Pursuing justice for international crimes in Ukraine: A patchwork of multi-level and long-running efforts

Author:: Katja Creutz
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Russian aggression against Ukraine has triggered debates and initiatives on how to address crimes under international law committed in and against Ukraine, including war crimes and the crime of aggression. A single institution capable of dealing with all international crimes is nonetheless lacking. Tens of thousands of alleged war crimes have been reported and documented, part of which the Ukrainian courts themselves are handling. The massive caseload requires international assistance, in addition to which the ICC is also investigating alleged war crimes. The international community is divided in regard to the investigation and prosecution of the crime of aggression. As the ICC lacks jurisdiction with respect to this crime in this particular situation, European states are advancing a special ad hoc tribunal. Nonetheless, the majority of countries globally, particularly in the Global South, find it hard to support the initiative. The discussion on the best way to proceed with regard to addressing the crime of aggression committed by Russia is ongoing. Many problematic issues are being debated, ranging from political desirability to the issue of head of state immunities.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, United Nations, War Crimes, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

27. Russian blackmail and the Black Sea Grain Initiative: The (limited) impact of the war in Ukraine on global food security

Author:: Timo R. Stewart
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Ukraine and Russia are both major exporters of foodstuffs and fertilisers. Consequently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to fears of an impending food crisis, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. Prices did indeed rise steeply in March 2022 as Russia blockaded Ukrainian ports. Although global food prices remain elevated, they have fallen over the past year. This is partly due to mitigating measures, particularly the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). However, prices were already high before the war due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The BSGI was further extended in March until May 2023 at least. Each deadline gives Russia a new opportunity to press for concessions on sanctions, as Ukraine sorely needs the export revenues, and there is ongoing concern regarding world food prices. While a continuation of the BSGI is highly preferable, it is also important to note that the initial food crisis fears were somewhat overblown. Russia’s leverage is limited. Higher food prices do take a toll on the poorest, but world food markets also have a high degree of flexibility and thereby resilience. Scuttling the deal would also incur costs for Russia and is therefore unlikely to happen.
Topic:: Governance, Multilateralism, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

28. The war-induced exodus from Russia: A security problem or a convenient political bogey?

Author:: Margarita Zavadskaya
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since 24 February 2022, around 800,000 Russians have left Russia in reaction to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The largest proportion of new migrants was accepted by Kazakhstan, Georgia, Turkey, and Armenia. War-induced migration should be handled like any other migration, whether it involves asylum-seekers, economic migrants, or repatriates. Excessive politicization and fearmongering around migration, including political refugees and political oppositionists, is counterproductive, as it feeds into Kremlin propaganda and belligerent narratives. While there may be concerns about espionage or saboteurs, the primary focus should be on the socio-economic impact of Russian immigration. For the receiving states, especially in the post-Soviet space, the Russian migrants pose a socio-economic challenge rather than a political one. With an increasing probability of cross-border repression – persecution or intimidation of political migrants abroad – it is essential that the EU adopts a consistent response towards political migrants, including those from Russia.
Topic:: Security, Refugees, Borders, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

29. Nuclear deterrence in the Ukraine war: Diplomacy of violence

Author:: Jyri Lavikainen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Russia’s nuclear blackmailing has been the primary reason why NATO has not intervened in the Ukraine war. However, the US nuclear deterrence has allowed the West to resist Russia’s nuclear coercion, which has resulted in an unprecedented delivery of military aid to Ukraine. The US has reacted to Russia’s nuclear coercion by emphasizing its readiness to retaliate if Russia uses nuclear weapons. The war progresses in line with the historical tradition of limited wars where the opposing sides regulate the conflict by issuing threats in a game of nerves. Russia’s nuclear deterrence strategy is failing because it uses nuclear deterrence for something it is not suited for: as a coercive tool in a protracted war of conquest. As long as such threats can be countered with a threat to retaliate, their credibility is low because the benefits cannot outweigh the costs in the vast majority of circumstances. The deterrence dynamic still allows more room for manoeuvre for the supporters of Ukraine. The West should increase the military aid delivered to Ukraine with the goal of defeating Russia.
Topic:: NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and United States of America

30. La invasión rusa de Ucrania bajo el prisma de las teorías de control reflexivo

Author:: Arturo Esteban Ceballos
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: El presente artículo analiza las causas del fracaso de la fase inicial de la invasión rusa de Ucrania de febrero de 2022 desde el prisma de la teoría del control reflexivo. Esta teoría fue formulada en los años sesenta por el matemático y psicólogo Vladimir Lefebvre, y constituye hoy día una de las fuentes de inspiración de la moderna doctrina político militar de Rusia. Para ello, se ha utilizado un método hipotético deductivo sobre la base de una hipótesis que relaciona este fracaso con el manejo inadecuado de los marcos de información por parte de Rusia. Dado que la moderna doctrina militar de Rusia descansa en gran parte en las teorías del control reflexivo, el fracaso de este último provocó que no se alcanzasen las condiciones decisivas del enfrentamiento en las fases iniciales del conflicto. Ucrania había resistido las medidas activas rusas, lo que ocasionó un error de cálculo en el diseño estratégico inicial del Kremlin.
Topic:: Intelligence, Military Strategy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Reflexive Control
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

31. Dimensión digital de la guerra de Rusia contra Ucrania: perspectivas endógenas en situaciones de emergencia

Author:: Jacinto Gómez-López, Jesús Miguel Flores-Vivar, and Ángel Gómez de Agreda
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Los conflictos armados provocan disrupciones en las redes de comunicaciones y su empleo malicioso por parte del enemigo. Si bien las causas que lo originan son distintas, las consecuencias son, a menudo, similares a las que se producen en emergencias de la sociedad civil. El establecimiento de protocolos y mecanismos que fomenten la resiliencia de las redes y aplicaciones tecnológicas existentes y que prevean el uso de otras alternativas es una parte fundamental en el correcto funcionamiento de los servicios de emergencia. El artículo presenta algunas reflexiones y resultados preliminares para la mejora de estos servicios, basadas en las enseñanzas extraídas del conflicto en Ucrania-Rusia. Se recogen acciones para la mejora de las actuaciones en las redes sociales y en aquellos servicios que estas habilitan.
Topic:: Communications, Propaganda, Disinformation, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Emergency Services
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

32. International terrorism, a threat present in Kosovo

Author:: Fidan Haliti
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article deals with the threats posed by international terrorism to the security environment in Kosovo, with a particular focus on the period of the emergence of ISIS, when a large number of fighters from Kosovo joined terrorist organisations in the conflict zone of Syria and Iraq. This article attempts to explain the general factors leading to the rise of violent extremism and religious radicalism in Kosovo, as well as why Kosovar fighters joined ISIS. In particular, it examines the institutional responses to counter-terrorism in Kosovo, the elimination of conditions and factors conducive to extremism and radicalism, and the weaknesses of Kosovo institutions in countering terrorism.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

33. The social identity of the Ukrainian soldier in the conditions of the legal regime of martial law

Author:: Serhii A. Mul and Kostiantyn V. Hromovenko
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The purpose of the article is to study the social identity of the Ukrainian soldier under the legal regime of martial law. The social identity of a Ukrainian soldier under martial law determines his characteristics, perception of his role in society, sense of responsibility to it, and willingness to perform courageous actions in the interests of the country. This essential factor helps to raise the morale and motivation of a soldier in a military conflict. The concept of a soldier's social identity is used on the basis of the analysed literature and the survey conducted among military personnel. The authors propose and substantiate the thesis that the social identity of a Ukrainian soldier under martial law can be characterised by a sense of commitment to his nation and his essential role in the defence of the country.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Identity, Readiness, Russia-Ukraine War, and Martial Law
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Eastern Europe

34. Leaving Dayton for Brussels: Reviving Bosnia’s constitutional reform

Author:: Berta López Domènech
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In December 2022, the European Council granted Bosnia and Herzegovina candidate status. However, to make EU membership a reality, Bosnia needs to address several conditions and implement major reforms. Almost three decades since the end of the Bosnian war, the country continues to be governed along sectarian lines and is overseen by an internationally appointed authority, the High Representative. Moreover, the ethnic provisions of the Dayton constitution discriminate against parts of its citizenry. This Discussion Paper stresses the need to reopen the debate on Bosnia’s constitutional reform, arguing that the EU should accompany the country’s efforts to become a fully functional and democratic state. A new constitution is vital to improving institutional functionality, streamlining decision-making, and guaranteeing equality for all citizens – all of which would ultimately allow for the closure of the Office of the High Representative. The EU should use the granting of candidate status to Bosnia as an opportunity to advance the conversation on reforming Bosnia's constitution per European democratic norms.
Topic:: Democratization, Reform, Constitution, and European Council
Political Geography:: Bosnia and Eastern Europe

35. The Europeanisation of the Energy Transition in Central and Eastern EU Countries: An Uphill Battle that Can Be Won

Author:: Diana-Paula Gherasim
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the brutal decoupling from Russian fossil fuels, is a game changer for the Central and Eastern Europe region which was still heavily dependent on Russia for its energy supply. There are still a few oil, gas, and nuclear fuel supplies, but the sharp decline, and search for alternatives, lead to a shift in paradigm: deploying low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency is now a matter of national security and economic security. Hence, following the 2022 energy crisis, the understanding that the European Union’s (EU) energy security of supply means an acceleration in phasing out fossil fuels and deploying clean energies has become the newest European acquis in energy policy, increasing the importance of the Green Deal at EU, national and local levels. The risk that a carbon wall would be erected within Europe between the West and the Central and Eastern European Member States (CEECs) is no more valid. The concept of Europeanization is at the core of the analysis of the energy transition in the CEECs. The progress on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction observed in these Member States (MS) can be considered as a success of the Europeanization process in this region, as its timing coincides with the implementation of the 2020 agenda for climate and energy, to the establishment of which these countries were part of. Moreover, the Clean Energy Package and the Green Deal seem to have been successful in putting in place a mechanism of cognitive framing pertaining to the Europeanization toolbox, by setting a framework for all Europeans to move in the same direction, of a cleaner and healthier way of living, independently of their starting point. Given the status quo in the ten CEECs, the new ambitious objectives regarding transport decarbonization will translate into important transformation costs for the region, which in turn could increase the risk of renegotiation attempts, as the circular Europeanization theory predicts. The acknowledgment at the EU level that the transition must be just to succeed is one instance of bottom-up Europeanization, where the challenges brought forward by specific Member States shaped the European energy transition agenda and discourse. Large financial support for this end was a first condition for CEECs to support the climate neutrality agenda. The second condition is that CEECs plan to replace their coal fleet at least partially with nuclear power, be they reactor capacity expansions, lifetime extensions, large new reactors, or small modular reactors (SMRs). The third condition has been securing a role for the use of natural gas for the transition, which in 2022 turned out to be a costly choice. With the crisis, CEECs have all taken on board the necessity to boost renewables as a tool to rapidly decrease dependence on imported fossil fuels, to meet the 2030 targets, prepare for the progressive phase-out of free emission allowances while awaiting the new nuclear generation capacities due from 2035 onwards. This strategy is also supported by public opinion, while it remains to be seen how public acceptance of SMRs will be. This gives the CEE region a strong joint interest to push for the inclusion of nuclear energy in EU legislations, alongside France. On gas, countries have switched to liquefied natural gas (LNG) and diversified their pipeline supplies, and where possible, try to boost the domestic supply of natural gas and soon, biomethane. Although being relatively far from alternative gas entry points means that for some CEECs Russia remains, to a certain extent, a necessity, this cannot be used as an excuse for undermining EU unity and should push towards harder EU-level reflections on energy solidarity on which some progress was done during the 2022 energy crisis. It remains to be seen if a new line of fragmentation will not appear between Germany and Austria on the one hand and the CEEs on the other: following the Nord Stream betrayal and denial by Germany of Polish energy security concerns for example, CEECs are concerned about the extraterritorial outreach of Germany’s nuclear phase-out policies, and of Austria’s continued systemic opposition to nuclear. This plays in the hand of the United States, which is the ultimate gatekeeper to pressure Germany and secure the energy technology choices of CEECs through the export of US technologies. Of note is also the shared concern now over the dependence on Russian nuclear fuels and equipment, and efforts to reduce this. A last source of possible tensions comes from some new gas infrastructure investments which can strengthen resilience but risk locking in gas much longer than the EU trajectory allows for. Beyond nuclear energy, however, the interest in accelerating the deployment of renewables, and the concern over a just transition, the note shows that there is little in common between the CEECs which have all their specificities. Last but not least, this note argues that a new risk of fragmentation may emerge, related to the localization of innovation and the volume of state aids and subsidies to industries. While some CEECs appear to be a frontrunner in the deployment of battery cell gigafactories, their financial and budgetary capacities are much more limited compared to Western MSs, and their ability to develop comprehensive, coherent climate plans, and to mobilize EU tools and funding, is also limited. Without an EU Sovereignty Fund, the region will find it hard to keep pace with EU’s objectives in the Net-Zero Industry Act and the Critical Raw Materials Act due to limited fiscal space to be leveraged for state aid purposes, despite more favorable conditions.
Topic:: European Union, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, Transition, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

36. How Sweden Can Use its EU Presidency to Build the Civilian Security Dimension of the Eastern Partnership

Author:: Michal Baranowski, Mikołaj Bronert, Maximilian Kaminski, and Elene Kintsurashvili
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) lacks a security dimension and this is an urgent reform need. In particular, the EU should become the leading provider of civilian security support in the EaP countries, particularly Ukraine. But significant weaknesses in this policy field inhibit its capability to do so. Sweden’s long-term focus on the EaP, its experience in augmenting domestic cyber and hybrid resilience as well as in placing the civilian aspect at the heart of its national security, and it its leading contribution to the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) missions put it in a unique position to be a champion of the security dimension of the EaP during its presidency of the Council of the EU. Sweden can do so by pushing for: a EU-NATO memorandum of understanding on the EaP; the provision of a rapid financing mechanism to assist EaP countries in nonmilitary defense; a more coordinated training, planning, and implementing process for CSDP missions between EU actors and the EaP countries; a more targeted approach towards EaP countries; and prioritization of deepening of cooperation with EaP countries in the domain of hybrid threats.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Sweden, and Central Europe

37. Economic Priorities in Post-war Ukraine

Author:: Dmytro Boyarchuk
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Ukraine has been a stellar example of a little reform going a long way. First invaded by Russia in 2014, the Ukraine of 2022 was a different country, with more resilience, more ability, and more depth. As it pushes to repel the Russian aggressor, it is never too early to think about how Ukraine can continue its reform process and become a state that is free of Russia, economically strong, and a model for policy reform. The ways in which Ukraine can attain this goal are contained in the economic roadmap, “Economic Priorities in Post-war Ukraine,” produced by Ukrainian experts and world-class policy advisors under CASE-Center for Social Research and CASE Ukraine and funded by agencies from around Europe and the United States. This report focuses on the essential reforms that will help Ukraine with the post-war reconstruction, as well as enable progress in its efforts on the way to EU membership. Over 30 years of independence, Ukraine has launched almost all of the necessary reforms to build and develop a market economy. In 2014, Ukraine signed the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, and substantial progress has been demonstrated since then. However, the country fought against a legacy of start-stop reforms and inattention to major objectives such as building the rule of law and encouraging private sector competition. Before the full-scale Russian invasion, it had been making progress in institutional reforms but still had far to go. This report addresses many of the complex tasks that Ukraine needs to complete, with the main challenge being the rule of law, a problem lasting for three decades. Our team of experts propose specific mechanisms to make the transition to a country which respects the rule of law, including ways to improve the judiciary, respect property rights, and encourage private sector competition. The report also examines the question on how the Ukrainian government can attract funding and rebuild the country after the war is over, discussing ways in which the EU and the donor community can be involved. The eventual end of the war also provides Ukraine with a unique opportunity to leap ahead in the European integration process and to finish its institutional reforms. With Ukraine now a candidate for EU membership, the prospects of the integration process, the unprecedented support for integration with the EU in Ukrainian society and the continued support of the West, present Ukraine with a way forward and overcoming the obstacles that have delayed, stalled, or even caused the abandonment of reforms in the past.
Topic:: Development, Reform, Economy, Institutions, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

38. Russia's Influence in MENA After a Year of War in Ukraine

Author:: Matthew Czekaj, Iulia-sabina Joja, Alex Vatanka, Yörük Işık, Charles Lister, and Roger Kangas
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: MEI Managing Editor Matthew Czekaj speaks with scholars Iulia-Sabina Joja, Alex Vatanka, Yörük Işık, Charles Lister, and Roger Kangas on Russia's current standing in the Middle East a year since re-invading Ukraine. How has Russian aggression in Ukraine redrawn Moscow’s relationships in the MENA region? And as the Middle East increasingly becomes a key area of global great power competition, is Russia still a meaningful player there, politically, economically, militarily, and diplomatically?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Politics, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and North Africa

39. Let’s Learn Judo with Putin. Sport, Power and Masculinity in 21st-Century Russia

Author:: Leo Goretti and Sofia Mariconti
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Dedication to sport and physical prowess have been key elements in the construction of Vladimir Putin’s image since his rise to the Presidency of Russia. Domestically, the Kremlin has promoted a public representation of the President as a strong, energetic, decisive leader who is ‘fit for the job’. Constant emphasis has been placed on how sports – especially judo and those harking back to the Soviet past, such as sambo – forged the manly qualities of Putin, turning him into the living paradigm of Russian hegemonic masculinity. At the international level, Putin’s vigorous and masculine leadership has been turned into a proxy for Russia’s restored status: in the early 2000s, to mark a neat break from the ‘decadence’ of the 1990s; subsequently, to suggest the return of Russia to its great-power status. Hostility against human – especially LGBT – rights in sport has become central to this discourse, not only because they are suggestive of alleged Western decadence, but also because they threaten the gender norms and public image on which Putin’s leadership has been built.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Sports, Leadership, and Masculinity
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

40. Toward Inclusive Recovery in Ukraine: Engaging Women and Civil Society in Ukraine’s Relief, Recovery, and Reconstruction

Author:: Jess Keller
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: Women’s participation in the design and implementation of Ukraine’s recovery programs is critical to maximize the effectiveness of the reconstruction process, take into account differentiated needs, and bolster post-conflict development. Key recommendations: Promote women’s participation, leadership, and decision-making in Ukraine’s planning frameworks and recovery process. Ensure new funding enables women’s active participation in Ukraine’s recovery and advances gender equality. Establish a gender-sensitive monitoring mechanism for the Ukrainian government to report on recovery progress and collect and analyze sex-disaggregated data. Prioritize the re-establishment of critical social infrastructure and services. Integrate gender equality in Ukraine’s EU accession commitments.
Topic:: Civil Society, Reconstruction, Women, Recovery, Participation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

41. China-US Competition in the Balkans Impact, regional responses, and larger implications

Author:: Ivan Lidarev
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This strategic update from Sotirov Visiting Fellow Dr Ivan Lidarev analyses the competition between China and the US in the Balkans, striving to answer three broad research questions about its impact on the region. The paper analyses how the China-US competition has shaped the strategic framework in which Balkan states operate; how Balkan nations have responded strategically to this competition; and what the long-term implications of the regional US-China competition are.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and United States of America

42. Facilitating learning and discovery oriented industrial policy in Albania

Author:: Matt Andrews and Peter Harrington
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Industrial policy initiatives demand a lot of knowledge from policymakers. Knowledge is often limited, however, especially when policies emerge from top-down technical experts or outsiders with limited contextual experience. Such policies are prone to mistakes. These can, however, be avoided by developing policies through collaborative ‘discovery processes’. Establishing organizations to do ‘discovery’ work is challenging, however, especially when challenges are urgent, resources lacking, and corruption concerns rife. In such settings, it may be more practical and effective to build listening and response capabilities into incumbent policy systems through rapid, temporary discovery processes. This paper provides a case narrative of an experiment with this idea, recounting the story of a problem-driven learning and discovery-oriented approach undertaken to reinvigorate a struggling sector in Albania in 2014.
Topic:: Development, Industrial Policy, Economy, and Business
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Albania

43. Can Back Channels Prevent Direct Military Conflict Between Russia and NATO?

Author:: Yury Nadtochey
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Against the background of ongoing war in Ukraine few options remain to escape the worst scenario of tensions between Russia and the West in Eastern Europe and beyond. We might point out three possible ways on how this disastrous future can be avoided: 1) unilateral steps taken by the conflicting parties in order to de-escalate; 2) enhancing existing communication lines; 3) back channel diplomacy
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, Communications, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

44. Turkey’s Watershed Elections: A Matter of Leadership

Author:: Alessia Chiriatti
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: It has been said numerous times in the last months that the upcoming 14 May elections in Turkey will be a historical watershed for the country. A crunch point that has not yet been widely explored in these months, though, is that of leadership mechanisms and the consequences of a possible change at the helm of the country, for both its democratic transition and the trust that regional allies (EU and NATO countries above all) can place in the country. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s erratic leadership appears to be on a tightrope, challenged by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the head of the Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, CHP), the largest opposition party leading the Nation Alliance (Millet İttifakı). Due to the osmotic relationship between domestic (related to social cleavages) and regional (mainly securitised) dynamics, what the new leadership of Turkey will be, will also affect the future posture of the country and the willingness (or lack thereof) of other States to establish a trusting relationship with it.
Topic:: Elections, Leadership, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Domestic Policy, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

45. Can Alternative Sequencing of Actions Break the Deadlock in Implementing the Agreement on the Path to Normalization between Kosovo and Serbia?

Author:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The dispute between Kosovo and Serbia remains a major challenge to the security, stability, and prosperity of the entire Western Balkans region. In particular, the Banjska terrorist attack carried out by Serb militants against the Kosovo Police on September 24, 2023 (with the support from Serbia’s state apparatus, as per the investigation of Kosovar authorities) underscores the pressing need for a sustainable resolution to the ongoing dispute between Kosovo and Serbia. The most promising path toward such a resolution lies in the full implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization of Relations between Kosovo and Serbia (APN), which was verbally agreed in Brussels in February 2023, because the Serbian President Vucic refused to sign it.
Topic:: Security, Political stability, Normalization, and Disputes
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

46. Women Police Officers’ Perception of Gender Integration in the Kosovo Police

Author:: Adelina Hasani
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Kosovo has made significant strides in improving women’s political representation by implementing gender quotas to enhance the presence of women in its all state institutions. The enactment of Kosovo’s Law on Gender Equality in May 2015 marked a crucial milestone in strengthening the nation’s legal framework for promoting gender equality. However, despite progress, Kosovo still faces numerous gender equality challenges, particularly in the realms of women’s leadership positions, equal political participation, and ending violence against women. Traditional gender role mentalities, discrimination, and stereotyping have presented significant barriers to women’s involvement in decision-making at all levels, including within the security sector. Despite some notable improvements, the journey towards increased representation of women in the Kosovo Police remains a work in progress. Nevertheless, in many countries, likewise in Kosovo, security sector policies and programming have failed to analyze women’s security needs and priorities adequately and involve women and men equally by integrating their gender perspectives. In such cases, security institutions are often rife with equality gaps and may be unable to provide security for all community members. Efforts aimed at integrating a gender perspective into policies and practices of the security sector have predominantly focused on women’s representation rather than on their specific needs. The data conducted shows that Kosovo’s policies have demonstrated significant efforts to enhance the gender perspective within the Kosovo Police. However, challenges persist, stemming from factors such as the limited participation of women in managerial and decision-making roles, traditional male dominance, patriarchal mindsets, and the need for comprehensive integration of gender perspectives into all laws and regulations governing the Kosovo Police. This report highlights and analyzes women’s critical challenges in the Kosovo Police from the perspective of women police officers. Women’s issues are often not treated as a priority and do not receive the necessary attention. Through this report, we will examine the working environment for women in the Kosovo Police, the primary challenges they encounter, unaddressed issues that have not been taken seriously, policies that should promote gender diversity, and the impact and contribution of women within the the Kosovo Police. The report employs a qualitative methodology and relies on semi-structured interviews with experienced and high-ranking women in the Kosovo Police. These interviews have focused on gaining insights into the working environment, gender sensitivity within security institutions, and the primary challenges faced by women in the sector. Additionally, we have conducted seven focus groups with women in the Kosovo Police who do not hold high-ranking positions. The aim is to analyze and comprehend the dynamics and factors that hinder women’s advancement to higher ranks within the Kosovo Police. These focus groups were organized in Prizren, Prishtina, Mitrovica, Gjilan, Gjakova, Ferizaj, and Peje. Through these focus groups, we have collected comprehensive information about the working environment and gender integration within the Kosovo Police.
Topic:: Security, Women, Legislation, Police, Integration, and Gender
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

47. Has Kosovo understood the Sexual Integrity of Women?

Author:: Blenda Asllani
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The sexual integrity of women means their right to own and have full control over their bodies without any form of violence or coercion. Kosovo, like many countries in the world, has faced significant challenges in ensuring and fully respecting the sexual integrity of women. One of the most frequent forms of violation of the sexual integrity of women is sexual violence: sexual harassment, sexual assault, and rape. According to the database of the QIKA organization, from 2019 to 2022, 257 women reported that they were sexually assaulted and another 231 reported sexual harassment to the Kosovo Police. Violation of sexual integrity in Kosovo has not excluded even minor girls, where we recall the case of the rape of an 11-year-old girl by a group of 5 adult men in August, 2022. The recent data from the Information System of the Kosovo Police is a sobering reminder of the gravity of this situation: from January to May 2023, there have been 42 committed and 4 attempted rape cases. As Kosovo progresses towards enhanced national development and global integration, addressing sexual violence becomes crucial not just for individual well-being, but also as a fundamental matter of human rights, gender equality, public safety, and social cohesion.
Topic:: Human Rights, Women, Sexual Violence, Police, and Gender
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

48. Are Non-Governmental Organizations prepared to deal with Cyberthreats?- An analysis of perceptions of cybersecurity capacities among NGOs in Kosovo

Author:: Donika Elshani
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: NGOs in Kosovo are increasingly relying on digital tools to conduct their work. From online correspondence via different applications, storing important organizational data on electronic devices and establishing an online presence through social media accounts, they are leveraging technology to streamline processes, improve communication, and engage with stakeholders. However, with the benefits of these digital tools come certain challenges and risks that, if left unaddressed, can undermine the effectiveness and security of NGOs and potentially even threaten their very existence. Malign actors are increasingly using the online sphere to perpetrate malicious activities, including stealing sensitive data, committing financial crimes, spreading falsehoods and hate speech, to name but a few. The aim of this report is to provide a analysis of perceptions of key digital threats and digital capacity-building needs of the non-governmental sector in Kosovo. It seeks to fill the existing data gap by conducting an initial assessment of the key challenges faced by NGOs in terms of digital security and identifying their specific needs for enhancing their digital capacity. The report draws on a quantitative survey conducted among 48 NGOs to assess their cybersecurity landscape. The findings reveal that NGOs in Kosovo face significant challenges in terms of their capacity to identify, mitigate, and respond to cyber threats. The analysis highlights a lack of adequate resources, expertise, and cybersecurity measures within these organizations to effectively tackle potential digital threats in the future.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, NGOs, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

49. Kosovo's Take on Cybersecurity

Author:: Vesa Kroci
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: In 2014, there was a notable surge in cybercrimes in Kosovo. The advancement and widespread adoption of technology during this period brought about a more pronounced occurrence of cyber-related offenses. Fadil Avdyli, the head of the Cybercrime Investigation Sector in the Kosovo Police, reported that eight individuals were apprehended in 2012, eleven in 2013, and seven in 2014. The rising cyberattacks in Kosovo provided an impetus to build a new policy framework dealing with cyber security, resulting with the adoption by the Kosovo government of the National Cyber Security Strategy and Action Plan 2016 – 2019. Program of the Kosovo Government 2021-2025 notes that “cyber security is a growing problem, we will engage in professional capacity building for the prevention of cyber-attacks, completion of the legal framework and modernization of cyber protection equipment”. The Kosovo Security Strategy 2022-2027, puts significant relevance to strengthening cyber security capacities of Kosovo and notes that the government “will invest in the field of cybersecurity, critical infrastructure, innovation and technology and capacity-building”. The strategy also includes the Global Cybersecurity Index as an impact indicator, but Kosovo has not been included. In 2023 Kosovo Assembly adopted Law No. 08/L-173 on Cyber Security, which among others, foresees the establishment of the Cyber Security Agency as well as partially transposes Directive (EU) 2013/40 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 12 August 2013 on attacks against information systems.
Topic:: Security, Crime, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

50. What is Kosovo’s position in regional security cooperation?

Author:: Dorjeta Rukiqi
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Regional Cooperation is central to stability of the Western Balkans (WB), which is also recognized by the European Union (EU), and it is a key condition in the European integration process of all six countries of the region. Regional cooperation is included in different chapters of the acquis, including chapters 23 and 24 of the acquis. For Kosovo, regional cooperation is part of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU, which constitutes a contractual obligation. In the context of the European integration, the main platform for regional cooperation has been the Berlin Process, launched in 2014 and Kosovo has actively participated in this platform. In 2012, in the context of the normalization dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, the parties agreed with the so-called ‘’footnote agreement’’ which is meant to facilitate participation of Kosovo in regional cooperation initiative. However, the agreement is seen as controversial in Kosovo, and the country faces challenges to fully participate and integrate in regional cooperation initiatives. Of particular relevance for Kosovo in regional cooperation, is security. Kosovo's representation in regional security cooperation initiatives is limited, and often facilitated by organizations like NATO, EULEX, and UNMIK. In addition to the political hurdles for participation and integration in regional security cooperation initiatives, even in those organizations or initiatives that it has managed to secure membership, Kosovo is often under represented, particularly in leadership roles. For instance a study from 2021 shows that only nine percent of staff in regional organizations hailed from Kosovo. Consequently, despite being part of multiple regional security cooperation initiatives, Kosovo's position remains unequal compared to other member states of the WB.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Political stability, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

51. Kosovo citizens’ perceptions on EU integration, Kosovo-Serbia bilateral relations, and Regional Cooperation

Author:: Dea Fetiu and Gramos Sejdiu
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This report of Western Balkans Security Barometer analyzes the Kosovo citizens’ perceptions on EU integration, Kosovo-Serbia bilateral relations, and Regional Cooperation. Over the course of our measurement period, the public perception of EU integration has consistently maintained a high level of support. In 2020, 92.5 percent of citizens expressed support, followed by 92.3 percent in 2021, and 94.2 percent in 2022. These findings indicate a stable and high level of support for the integration process, with no significant changes observed over the last three years. Turning to the citizens’ perceptions of the Kosovo-Serbia bilateral relations and the dialogue process, the second part of the report highlights an increase in support for the dialogue among Kosovo citizens. In 2021, 74.3 percent expressed their support to the dialogue, which rose to 83 percent in 2022. Furthermore, the chapter touches upon the shift of citizens’ perspectives on the impact of the dialogue on Kosovo – Serbia relations, with 40 percent of the respondents believing it had improved in 2022 compared to 14.6 percent in 2021. A majority of respondents (68.8 percent) expressed support for regional cooperation in the Western Balkans, indicating a positive inclination among Kosovo’s population. Additionally, respondents consistently expressed support for free movement, information exchange, and the establishment of a common market for goods and workforce in the Western Balkans. When specifically asked about the Open Balkan Initiative, responses were very divided and varied over the years, with fluctuating levels of support and opposition. Overall, the findings highlight the strong aspiration for EU integration and the continuation of the Kosovo – Serbia dialogue, with citizens understanding the complexity and challenges of both processes and the challenges ahead.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, European Union, Regional Integration, Survey, and Perception
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

52. Citizens’ Perceptions on Foreign Actors Influence in Kosovo and Regional Cooperation

Author:: Dorjeta Rukiqi
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The general perception of respondents towards Western countries such as the USA (91 percent), Germany (90 percent), Austria (84 percent), and the United Kingdom (83 percent) is positive. Conversely, negative perceptions are held towards states that do not recognize Kosovo, such as Russia (86 percent), Greece (69 percent), China (65 percent), Spain (61 percent), and Iran (49 percent). The positive impact of Western actors in Kosovo is evident in their aid, assistance, and support throughout the state-building process of Kosovo. Their foreign agendas, aimed at promoting democracy and providing economic and financial support, have greatly facilitated Kosovo’s advancement as a young state. Conversely, perceptions of malign influences align with the hindrances posed by countries like Russia, China, and Spain. These nations have impeded Kosovo’s progress by obstructing its participation in crucial processes, blocking its membership in international organizations, refusing to acknowledge its independence, and disregarding its institutions. These actions have contributed to the negative perceptions of these countries among respondents, reflecting their adverse impact on Kosovo’s development. Regarding regional countries, 90 percent of the respondents view Albania as having the most positive impact, while Serbia is perceived as the regional country with the most negative impact. In terms of regional cooperation, 69 percent of respondents support it, while 24 percent oppose it. Similarly, 70 percent of respondents support the free movement of labor and goods within the region, while 24 percent hold an opposing view. However, only 31 percent of respondents support the so-called Open Balkan Initiative, while 52 percent are against it. The Open Balkan Initiative, a regional effort to promote cooperation in the Western Balkans, has elicited a mixed response among the public in Kosovo. The lack of a clear written statute and undefined objectives have led to confusion, with many perceiving the initiative as a means for Serbia to consolidate its dominance in the region. These factors contribute to the complex dynamics and uncertainties surrounding the Open Balkan Initiative in Kosovo. Respondents who support the Open Balkan Initiative argue that it improves regional cooperation, establishes freedom of movement in the region, generates employment, and fosters economic development. On the other hand, those who oppose it argue that it empowers Serbia, discriminates against Kosovo’s position in the region, and weakens Kosovo’s economy.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Public Opinion, Citizenship, Regional Integration, and Survey
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

53. Policy Brief on Women's Agency and Working Environment in the Security Sector

Author:: Dea Fetiu and Dorjeta Rukiqi
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The primary aim of the current research is twofold. Firstly, we aim to measure the agency of women within the security sector and evaluate the extent to which it is inclusive and accommodating towards a gender perspective. Secondly, our research focuses on evaluating the capacity of institutions within the security sector to address gender-specific challenges and to use gender lens within the security sector. Main findings of this report are: -The low application rates of women to join security institutions, primarily stems from the perception that this field is predominantly for men. This perception affects women working in the sector who encounter a patriarchal mentality undermining their knowledge and expertise compared to their men counterparts. Moreover, women often confront the pressure to conform to societal expectations, compromising their personal freedoms and authentic selves; -Women in the security sector are underrepresented in managerial positions and their ambition to pursue leadership roles is harmed by prejudice and perceived gender roles. The undervaluing and differential treatment of women within the security sector hinders their ambitions and self-esteem, leading to a belief that they are unfit for managerial positions. Moreover, gendered domestic responsibilities create substantial barriers for women in attaining managerial positions and assuming increased responsibilities within the security sector, hindering their career progression; This role significantly hinders women's ability to pursue extensive training programs necessary for career advancement, particularly in the military. -There is a trend of underreporting when it comes to bullying, harassment, or discrimination cases among women in the security sector. As this was described as lack of ‘’reporting culture’’, it refers to the discouraging atmosphere that deters women from coming forward and reporting such incidents. As well as reporting mechanisms are perceived as non-confidential. -There is reluctance to address issues of gender equality in Kosovo Police (KP), while there is continouos request from civil society organizations to cooperate and share data and insights regarding womens’ position and gendered working environment in KP.
Topic:: Security, Women, Representation, Institutions, Gender, and Work
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

54. Is the Law Interception of Electronic Communications in Kosovo, working?

Author:: Ramadan Ilazi
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Against the background of increasing concerns among the public of potential abuses with the interception of telecommunication and violation of citizens’ rights and privacy, in 2015, Kosovo Assembly adopted the Law No. 05/L-030 on Interception of Electronic Communications. Base on the first part of the law it purpose is to regulate “the procedures and conditions for interception of electronic communications carried out for criminal procedure needs by state institutions established by law, and procedures and conditions of interception for security needs of the Republic of Kosovo and its citizens established by Law.” Furthermore, the law establishes rules, obligations, and authorizations both for the private sector, including the network operators and service providers as well as the public sector, including state institutions. The law places significant emphasis on protection of privacy and human rights in the framework of interception of electronic communication. However, implementation in practice of the new law has been a challenge.
Topic:: Security, Communications, Law Enforcement, Privacy, Surveillance, and Telecommunications
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

55. How the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation IF IMPLEMENTED changes relations between Kosovo and Serbia?

Author:: Ramadan Ilazi and Adelina Hasani
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: • The Agreement on the Path to Normalisation between Kosovo and Serbia (APN), creates a possibility for a new state of relations between the two countries, albeit a new status-quo. Through the APN Serbia practically recognizes statehood attributes of Kosovo, by accepting national symbols, as well as the obligation to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Kosovo, and treat Kosovo on the basis of the principles of the Charter of the United Nations (UN), and the Treaty of the European Union (TEU). The APN also makes Kosovo and Serbia responsible to preserve the peace and “contribute to fruitful regional co-operation and security in Europe”. • The new state of relations (new status-quo), is dependent upon effective implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation. Without effective implementation, the APN becomes another conflict management tool, rather than an instrument for affirmative normalization of relations. The current trends are not optimistic for implementation and suggest that both parties, especially in Serbia, are focused on undermining the APN and its impact; • The Agreement on the Path to Normalisation between Kosovo and Serbia, while introduces significant affirmative changes in the Kosovo-Serbia relations – if implemented – it also includes elements that can potentially create legal and political hurdles for the Kosovo government. The APN marks the first time, that a Kosovo government accepts Serbia’s position on the status question. The preamble of the APN includes the following sentence: “[…] without prejudice to the different view of the Parties on fundamental questions, including on status questions”, but there is not reference to the ICJ advisory opinion on the declaration of independence of Kosovo. Based on the precedents set by previous agreements/arrangements between Kosovo and Serbia in the framework of the EU-facilitated normalization dialogue, whenever the phrasing “without prejudice to the status” was used, a reference to the ICJ advisory opinion on declaration of independence was also included; • The Agreement on the Path to Normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia has been welcomed by the European Council, which marks the first time that all 27 Member States of the European Union (EU) have endorsed an agreement from the normalization dialogue. The European Council conclusions note that APN puts “the relationship between both parties on a new and sustainable basis as a historic chance that should be seized by both parties” and urges implementation • In other words, if the optimistic scenario of all five recognizing Kosovo fails, then Spain and Cyprus should move towards the current Greek position on Kosovo, while Greece itself, alongside Slovakia and Romania, should move to formal recognition. In Kosovo there are concerns about the position of Romania, which is seen as moving further away from constructive engagement with Kosovo and recognition and closer to the position of Spain. • The role of the European Union (EU) as a facilitator in the dialogue for normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, has arguably evolved into an arbiter, as a result of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization (APN), and the implementation roadmap. This means that for Kosovo and Serbia implementation of the provisions from the APN is a contractual obligation towards the EU in the framework of the European integration process. This arrangement was necessitated by the refusal of Serbia to sign the APN, although it agreed to it verbally. In this context, when neither side has signed the APN, the role of EU as an arbiter is a must, in order to guarantee implementation by both countries. • The transparency of the process of the dialogue for normalization of relations with Serbia has declined in Kosovo. The Kosovo government has limited its reporting on the normalization dialogue both to the public as well as to the Kosovo Assembly. In addition to this, Kosovo government has acted against previous precedents of asking the Kosovo Assembly for consent when accepting a high-level agreement with Serbia, such as the case from 2013 with the “First agreement of principles governing the normalization of relations”. • The implementation annex to the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia agreed in Ohrid in March, is vague, and lacks concrete measures to ensure implementation of the agreement, including sequencing of actions.
Topic:: Security, Sovereignty, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

56. Is a compulsory military service feasible for Kosovo?

Author:: Gramos Sejdiu
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: During the general elections of February, 2021 in Kosovo, one of the commitments of the “Vetëvendosje!” (VV) party was to introduce a national conscription model based on 3+3 months of service. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with increasing tension with Serbia, who maintains very close ties with Russia, has brought the conscription model into spotlight in Kosovo. However, as the country aspires membership in NATO, the transition from a professional military force into the conscription model could potentially undermine that process. Currently, there are 13 countries in Europe that apply the conscription-based model for the armed forces, each facing different challenges with the system. According to the media reportings, it seems that Kosovo’s approach is based on the models of Switzerland, Israel and Norway. However, it is clear that while Kosovo can learn a lot from other countries, it needs to develop its own approach and model to conscription, and in this context certain social, political and economic aspects should be considered. In order to accommodate changing mission profiles and lowering military expenditures, European armies have been reduced in size, lessening the need for recruits. Despite the war in Ukraine, armies across Europe have focused on modernization and international cooperation such as NATO for national security guarantees. Due to the evolving modernization of army equipment, armed forces “require increasingly higher training standards”. As a result, several nations have shifted towards professional armies in an effort to standardize their militaries and improve overall operational preparedness.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Conscription, and Military
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

57. Kosovo COVID-19 Management

Author:: Plator Avdiu, Donika Elshani, and Shpat Balaj
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The purpose of this research is to provide a general overview of the manifestation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kosovo and the overall management of the pandemic by relevant institutions. The analysis is based on data collected through publicly available information, national statistics, news articles, as well as research reports by local non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and international organizations and missions in the country. The COVID-19 pandemic of the novel coronavirus was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. It quickly spread to other parts of the world, leading to the World Health Organization declaring a pandemic on March 11, 202012. Countries across the globe implemented various measures to control the spread of the virus, including lockdowns, travel restrictions and mask mandates. The COVID-19 vaccine was soon developed, and the vaccine roll out began in the first months of 2021, with many countries still being in the process of vaccinating their populations. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on Kosovo, as it has had in many countries around the world. The first cases of COVID-19 in Kosovo were reported in March 202014, and since then the country has implemented measures such as lockdowns, mask mandates, and travel restrictions to try to control the spread of the virus. Kosovo faced many challenges in its efforts to control the spread of the virus, including limited healthcare resources, vaccine hesitancy, political instability and economic hardship, to name a few.15 The COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in Kosovo began in the first months of 2021 and was implemented with a phased approach, whereby some groups, such as healthcare workers, the elderly, and persons with underlying conditions, were given priority, before vaccinating the rest of the population. AstraZeneca and Pfizer BioNTech were the two vaccinees administered in Kosovo. These vaccines were secured through various sources, including through the COVAX facility.
Topic:: Public Policy, Public Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

58. Safeguarding Critical Infrastructure in Kosovo

Author:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Critical infrastructure is a segment which is related to several other areas of security and defense, namely some strategic and legal documents which are in force as well as some new initiatives. This analysis provided a detailed overview of the protection of critical infrastructure in the Republic of Kosovo, becoming the first document published in this field. While the MIA has done a very good job in drafting the law on critical infrastructure, putting Kosovo one step ahead of other Western Balkan countries, the law remains unimplementable for almost 2 years following the date of its entry into force. Initially, strategic documents that are in the process of being drafted such as the draft National Security Strategy, the draft Defense Strategy, the draft Counter-Terrorism Strategy and the draft Cyber Security Strategy should include the protection of critical infrastructure by ensuring coordination of actions and by avoiding duplication or overlap of actions. The Strategic Planning Office within the Office of the Prime Minister should coordinate this process in cooperation with the relevant ministries. On the other hand, the draft law on cyber security should pay attention to the drafting of legal provisions which may cause overlap with the law on infrastructure, while the initiative for drafting the law on Security Measures for Networks and Information Systems needs to be reviewed. Moreover, the draft law on private security services should be finalized as soon as possible.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Infrastructure, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

59. Citizens perceptions of integrity of public institutions in Kosovo

Author:: Shpat Balaj
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The Kosovo Security Forces, the Kosovo Police, the President of Kosovo and the Municipalities are the most trusted public institutions in Kosovo, with over 50 percent of respondents declaring that they trust or completely trust these institutions. This is followed by the Kosovo Customs and the Kosovo Intelligence Agency with 45 percent of respondents sharing such an opinion. On the other hand, less than 40 percent of the respondents declared that they trust or completely trust Courts, Prosecution, Kosovo Correctional Services, the Government of Kosovo and the Kosovo Assembly. The results of the report show that citizens of Kosovo find the security institutions more reliable with a higher level of trust towards them, compared to other public institutions in Kosovo, such as the justice institutions which citizens perceive less trustworthy and with weak integrity. The citizen confidence in the institutions of the Courts and the Prosecution in Kosovo has been consistently in decline, and this is concerning. Citizens have higher confidence in the public institutions from the central level, especially when compared to the previous year (2020), however, the skepticism towards these institutions generally prevails.
Topic:: Security, Public Opinion, Survey, and Public Institutions
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

60. The Russia-Ukraine War and North Korea-Russia Relations

Author:: Seung-soo Hyun
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: What is the impact of the war in Ukraine on North Korea’s unprecedented military provocations? Seung-soo Hyun, a research fellow at Korea Institute for National Unification, points out that Moscow’s defense of Pyongyang at the UN Security Council has emboldened North Korea. However, considering the low economic compatibility between the two countries and tight international sanctions against Russia after it invaded Ukraine, the bilateral economic cooperation would hardly help Pyongyang to develop its economy. Dr. Hyun claims that conflicts between Northeast Asian countries show signs of polarization and highlights the importance of monitoring how the war in Ukraine will reshape global strategic dynamics among Russia, China, and the U.S.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Economic Cooperation, Denuclearization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and North Korea

61. Strict and Uniform: Improving EU Sanctions Enforcement

Author:: Kim B. Olsen and Simon Fasterkjær Kjeldsen
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: For as long as the EU has been using sanctions as a foreign policy instrument, countering violations has been a challenge. With the EU rapidly expanding the breadth and depth of its sanctions, its institutions and member states must find ways to ensure stricter and more uniform enforcement to deter violations, enhance efficiency, and ensure a more level playing field for economic actors. The stakes are high: the success of the EU’s response to Russia’s military aggression hinges largely on effective sanctions, and the long-term legitimacy of the tool itself depends on its enforcement.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Governance, Sanctions, European Union, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

62. Gas and Energy Security in Germany and Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Guntram Wolff and Alexandra Gritz
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Russia’s weaponization of gas supplies caused a shock to the energy security of Central and Eastern Europe. Countries responded by increasing alternative gas supplies and LNG import capacity. Gas flows shifted from the east-west axis to west-east and north-south axes. In the short term, the usage of coal is rising; in the longer term, renewable and nuclear energy. Mitigating the effects of this shock requires the EU to prioritize policies that foster the integrity and security of its energy market.
Topic:: Security, Natural Resources, European Union, Gas, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Germany, and Central Europe

63. From Kosovo to Ukraine: lessons from the humanitarian response to conflict and displacement in Europe

Author:: Margie Buchanan-Smith and Peter Wiles
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: While there are many differences between the conflicts in Kosovo and Ukraine, the international humanitarian response to both bears many similarities. For example, both crises triggered record levels of funding and most international humanitarian agencies on the receiving end had limited or no presence and experience in the countries affected. Protection is the dominant need amongst affected communities in both crises as well. This paper – written by Margie Buchanan-Smith and Peter Wiles – highlights key lessons from the international humanitarian response to the Kosovo crisis that could have relevance to the response in Ukraine. The lessons are drawn from the three-volume ‘Independent Evaluation of Expenditure of DEC Kosovo Appeal Funds’ and ALNAP’s meta-evaluation of the Kosovo response, from our 2001 Annual Review.
Topic:: International Organization, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

64. ARE RUSSIA’S THREATS CREDIBLE?

Author:: Stephen Shulman and Stephen Bloom
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: The current crisis in Europe is a head-to-head battle of policies of coercive diplomacy: compellence by Russia and deterrence by the West. Russia’s demands focus on permanently reversing the expansion of Western military power into Ukraine, backed by the threat of military attack on Ukraine in the absence of compliance. Western policy seeks to deter such an attack by threatening painful economic sanctions and arming Ukraine to make such an attack more costly to Russia. How credible is the Russian threat?
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Crisis Management, and Military
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

65. CAN ISRAEL REMAIN BOTH NEUTRAL AND PART OF THE WEST?

Author:: Michael Barnett
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Israel is getting some unwanted attention because of its reluctance to outrightly condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No one believes that the failure to condemn translates into support for the attack. But Israel’s reticence has placed it in an awkward situation—one that might, in fact, translate into a loss of support from Western countries when Israel needs it most.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Conflict, Neutrality, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, and Eastern Europe

66. WHY A SETTLEMENT IN UKRAINE REMAINS OUT OF REACH

Author:: Valerie Sticher
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: The Russian invasion and unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine show the limits of diplomacy. Despite warning of an impending invasion, efforts to stop the war failed. And despite the high costs on all sides, efforts to stop this horrific war remain elusive. Why is this the case?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, War, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

67. HOW HISTORICAL ANALOGIES WOKE UP THE WEST

Author:: Eric Mosinger
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Policymakers, activists, and ordinary people often make analogies between past and present, for example, by labeling 9/11 “the Pearl Harbor of the 21st century.” In doing so, people hope to better understand surprising events and develop a plan of action for themselves and others. Vladimir Putin employed historical analogies to justify his invasion of Ukraine, while Western leaders drew on their own understanding of World War II history to mobilize a surprisingly muscular response to Russian aggression.
Topic:: War, History, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

68. Advancing a framework for the stabilization and reconstruction of Ukraine

Author:: Patrick Quirk and Prakhar Sharma
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Russia’s illegal and unprovoked war on Ukraine has shattered peace on the European continent and created tectonic shifts in the transatlantic security architecture. The Kremlin’s invasion has decimated Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure, and left tens of thousands of innocent civilians wounded or dead as part of a war-crime ridden military campaign. At the time of writing, Kyiv is making slow advances in the South and East with the help of significant Western military and economic aid, yet the outcome of the conflict continues to hang in the balance. A prolonged stalemate and some variation of a negotiated settlement seem most likely, with a Russian victory remaining a distant possibility.1 Absent an absolute Kremlin victory, Ukraine will need to stabilize vast swathes of its territory and reconstruct the social and industrial infrastructure therein.2 Due to their proximity to Ukraine and long-standing economic, political, and social connections, transatlantic allies and partners will most likely be deeply involved in this effort and will be significantly affected by its end result. The purpose of this issue brief then is to help Ukrainian, North American, and European policymakers consider stabilization and reconstruction needs and have a playbook in place regardless of the circumstances or outcome.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Reconstruction, Economy, Business, Innovation, Resilience, Russia-Ukraine War, and Stabilization
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and United States of America

69. Sustaining Democratic Unity for Ukraine’s Victory and South Korea’s Roles in This

Author:: Yang Gyu Kim
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: The war situation regarding Russia and Ukraine seems to be changing, as Kherson has recently returned to Ukraine. Yang Gyu Kim, a principal researcher at the East Asia Institute, considers the Russia-Ukraine war a “war of value,” and stresses that Ukraine’s victory is highly important, since it involves the restoration of global governance and has strategic implications in various regions around the world. Considering the post-war measures, Kim argues that the most contentious issue to be addressed is the genocide committed by Russian troops toward Ukraine civilians. While various reports confirm the allegations of genocide, he explains establishing its allegations and filing the case to the International Court of Justice remain challenging. Finally, Kim suggests three things that the Korean government can consider to help Ukraine: closely cooperating with the United States and Japan to sanction Russia, providing further humanitarian aid to Kyiv, and supporting Ukraine to win the legal fight in proving the war crimes as genocide.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Genocide, Democracy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Asia, and South Korea

70. Economic and Social Impacts of FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe

Author:: Doris Hanzl-Weiss and Branimir Jovanovic
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This study assesses the economic and social impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 17 economies in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE). More precisely, we investigate how different FDI inflows have affected various economic and social indicators, such as GDP growth, labour market outcomes, and poverty and inequality, for the period since the fall of communism until 2020. We pay particular attention to FDI that originates from the EU, as well as FDI from Germany and Austria, in order to evaluate whether their effects are different from the effects of FDI from other places of origin. We also examine whether there are differences in the impacts of different types of FDI – equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company debt, as well as of FDI that goes to different sectors of the economy – the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. We find that FDI inflows have had, in general, a positive effect on economic growth in CESEE, and that this effect has been particularly strong for German and Austrian FDI. For total FDI, higher inflows of 1 percentage point (pp) of GDP are associated with 0.19 pp higher GDP growth. For FDI from Germany and Austria, this effect is five times higher – FDI inflows of 1 pp of GDP have led to 0.9 pp higher GDP growth. The positive GDP effects have come from the higher consumption and exports that the FDI has induced. FDI inflows have also reduced unemployment and increased wages, but have had no effects on labour productivity. Total FDI has had only limited effects on inequality and poverty, but FDI from Germany and Austria has been found to reduce both inequality and poverty, likely because they have benefitted mainly lower-income persons. There are differences in the effects of the different types of FDI, with reinvested earnings and equity capital having in general more beneficial effects than intra-company loans. Also, FDI in different sectors of the economy has had different effects, with inflows to the secondary and tertiary sectors having greater effects than inflows to the primary sector. The policy implications of these results are that CESEE economies should not give up on their efforts to attract more FDI, but also that their endeavours should be more targeted, focusing on investments that have greater economic and social impacts. Moreover, foreign investment should not be criticised for the perhaps unsatisfactory economic and social performances of the economies from this region. Instead, the reasons for this should be sought in domestic factors and in the modest growth of the European Union during the past two decades.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, Foreign Direct Investment, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Germany, and Austria

71. Panel I: Deconstructing the Parallels between Holocaust Distortion and Genocide Denial

Author:: Tanya Domi, Laura Cohen, Riada Ašimović Akyol, Hikmet Karčić, James Smith, and Robert Williams
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Genocide denial not only abuses history, including contemporary history, but it also insults the survivors and extends the impact of the original crimes. Denial is the final act that never ends for the survivors. This symposium examines some of the parallels of contemporary genocide denial in the Balkans with increasing Holocaust denial and distortion sweeping across Europe. What can we learn from Holocaust experts and scholars that is applicable to the present? And what are some ways that memory activists resist denial of the most brutal crimes?
Topic:: Genocide, History, Holocaust, Memory, and Activism
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

72. ECONOMETRIC EVALUATION OF PUBLIC DEBT ON INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM KOSOVO AND NORTH MACEDONIA

Author:: Ismail Mehmeti and Gazmeda Deda
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The nexus between public debt and inflation has been continuously investigated, but after the pandemic, it has returned to the center of researchers' courtesy. Consequently, this research examines the influences of public debt, interest rates, trade openness, GDP growth, and foreign direct investments on inflation. The study employs secondary data from 2008 to 2021 and incorporates a mixed econometric technique such as the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Arrellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond approach. The study's findings argue that public debt, interest rates, and trade openness significantly influence inflation, whereas GDP growth has a significantly negative impact. Because of the limited number of observations in the context of the research, we have not been able to evaluate the impact in the long term. The uniqueness and relevance of this research stem from its use of a combined approach, and in recent months, a continuous increase in inflation has been recorded throughout the world. The current findings and arguments inspire a productive discourse among academics, scholars, and policy-making entities.
Topic:: Inflation, Econometrics, and Public Debt
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and North Macedonia

73. MANAGEMENT’S PERCEPTION OF THE DETERMINANTS THAT INFLUENCE SMEs PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM KOSOVO

Author:: Sokol Krasniqi, Arta Jashari, and Ismail Mehmeti
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are now unquestionable contributors to economic development on the one side and employment creation on the other. To promote sustained growth, SMEs must meet specific prerequisites, particularly the leadership structures of this segment. Therefore, this research aims to investigate and identify the determinants that affect SMEs performance. The research employs a qualitative technique, using questionnaires containing 52 questions. The study surveyed 336 SMEs owners or managers from March to April 2022. The Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) empirical technique explored the influence of education level, previous experience, training attendance, business plan, consultation services, and employees' insufficient competency in SMEs performance. The research has revealed that the level of education and consultancy services positively impact SMEs performance. In contrast, neglect of training and employees' insufficient competence harm SMEs performance. The study encourages SMEs owners and managers to take advantage of professional training opportunities and to invest in existing personnel through training to acquire acceptable competence, which will be reflected in management performance. From the perspective of the contribution, it provides the most recent evidence in the context of Kosovo's economy, employing the logistic regression analysis.
Topic:: Business, Training, Management, Skills, and Influence
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

74. THE ROLE OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN FIGHTING CORRUPTION IN THE JUDICIARY SYSTEM: THE CASE OF 2016 JUDICIAL REFORM IN ALBANIA

Author:: Bojana Hajdini and Gentjan Skara
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Corruption in the judiciary system has been considered by Albanian citizens and international organizations as deeply corrupt. In 2016 Albanian Parliament, supported by the EU and USA, adopted a judiciary reform to increase transparency, accountability, impartiality and citizens’ access to information. One way of preventing corruption and increasing citizens’ access to justice is by using information technology. This paper analyses the role of information and communication technology in preventing corruption in the Albanian judiciary system. The main research question is how and to what extent digitizing the judiciary contributes to preventing corruption in the judiciary system. The paper argues that the use of ICT in the judiciary system has been limited due to several factors, such as lack of legislation on the use of ICT in the judiciary system, absence of a unified automated case management system, lack of appropriate education or training of judiciary staff to use ICT and lack of reinvestments on ICT equipment in courts. The 2016 judicial reform, for the first time, emphasized the importance of digitizing the judiciary system in Albania. The paper concludes that digitizing the judiciary will increase integrity and prevent corruption in the judicial system.
Topic:: Corruption, Reform, Judiciary, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Albania

75. EVALUATING THE ROLE OF TOURISM IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA AND OTHER MEMBER STATES OF THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION

Author:: Gayane Tovmasyan
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Tourism has a significant role in the economies of many countries. It creates jobs, brings money, promotes investments, decreases poverty, develops infrastructures, etc. Many research works try to evaluate the role of tourism development on the economy. The article evaluates the role of tourism development in the economy of Armenia and checks the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH). With the help of statistical methods, the article evaluates the connections between tourism total expenses (visitor exports, domestic spending, government spending, and capital investment), the number of tourists and tourism total contribution to GDP, employment and other indicators. Besides, the correlation analysis between these indicators was done for the Member States of the Eurasian Economic Union. The results show that the increase in tourism expenses and the number of tourists will increase GDP and employment. However, the change in tourism contribution to employment is not so high, which was explained by different reasons. The same is the case for other countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. The article results may be helpful for future studies, as well as for government agencies for evaluating tourism contribution to economic development and for elaborating tourism development policies.
Topic:: Development, Treaties and Agreements, Tourism, GDP, and Expenses
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Armenia

76. DEMOCRACY AND THE RIGHTS OF NON-MAJORITY COMMUNITIES AT THE LOCAL LEVEL IN KOSOVO

Author:: Besim Myrtezani and Ferdi Kamberi
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Democratic governance has to do with the majority's will, respecting the rights of communities and all citizens' well-being. In Kosovo, the rights of communities are regulated by the constitution and legislation, which guarantee the special rights of minority communities. One of the fundamental policies of governmental institutions was about decentralizing local self-government, designed to facilitate the creation of new municipalities of communities and their integration into the local institutions. Our purpose was to search and analyze the level of representation of communities in the local institutions, legal mechanisms that guarantee their rights, challenges in putting the rights of communities into practice, and the political steps that must be taken to achieve so. The methodology is based on quantitative research with 500 (five hundred) respondents in three municipalities: Pristina, Gracanica, and Dragash, where 59% of respondents are male and 41% are female. The results show that about 55% of the communities are somewhat satisfied with the constitutional guarantees, and 38% are represented in the institutional life of Kosovo. Implementing legal mechanisms has allowed the communities to have higher representation at institutional levels and be part of Kosovo society’s integrative processes.
Topic:: Democracy, Legislation, Institutions, Autonomy, and Community
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

77. “Russia’s war in Eastern Europe is a central threat to the international architecture”

Author:: Luca Niculescu
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: n the short, medium and long term, what dangers does Russia's attack on Ukraine pose to the European Union? Is there a different perception of these dangers/threats in Eastern Europe? The Russian aggression in Ukraine, which began more than three months ago, has come at a complex time at both European and global level. Dealing with the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic already required a great deal of effort, imagination and mobilisation on the part of states and citizens. Transformations and reforms have been launched to respond to the new reality and to allow for a sustainable, environmentally friendly recovery. It was in this context that we witnessed the return of war to the European continent after 77 years of peace, with unprecedented suddenness and violence. Russia's war in Eastern Europe is not a conflict relegated to the periphery of political reality, but in its present form is a central threat to the international architecture as we know it.
Topic:: NATO, European Union, Threat Perception, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Eastern Europe

78. In support of a new approach with the Western Balkans: Staged accession with a Pierre MIREL consolidation phase

Author:: Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: In his “Strasbourg Speech” to the European Parliament on 9 May 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron put forward the idea of a European Political Community, to organise Europe from a broader political perspective than the European Union. He was targeting the membership applications of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. He nonetheless created a stir in the Western Balkans, even though he made it clear in his press conference that "for the Balkans, the path is already mapped out", by which he meant membership. This concern is understandable given the European perspective they were offered twenty years ago at the European Council of Thessaloniki on 21 June 2003, and that many voices are now being raised in favour of granting the new candidates to the East this formal membership status, or even of opening negotiations already. The European Council of 23-24 June will be important for two reasons: what is the European future of the three new candidates? Will Bulgaria lift its veto on the opening of accession negotiations with Albania and Northern Macedonia? Maintaining it would further weaken the credibility of the European Union at a time when China and Russia are making their ambitions clear.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Regional Integration, and European Council
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

79. What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare

Author:: Sarah J. Lohmann, Chuck Benson, Vytautas Butrimas, Georgios Giannoulis, and Gabriel Raicu
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the United States and its NATO partners to be confronted with the impact of hybrid warfare far beyond the battlefield. Targeting Europe’s energy security, Russia’s malign influence campaigns and malicious cyber intrusions are affecting global gas prices, driving up food costs, disrupting supply chains and grids, and testing US and Allied military mobility. This study examines how hybrid warfare is being used by NATO’s adversaries, what vulnerabilities in energy security exist across the Alliance, and what mitigation strategies are available to the member states. Cyberattacks targeting the renewable energy landscape during Europe’s green transition are increasing, making it urgent that new tools are developed to protect these emerging technologies. No less significant are the cyber and information operations targeting energy security in Eastern Europe as it seeks to become independent from Russia. Economic coercion is being used against Western and Central Europe to stop gas from flowing. China’s malign investments in Southern and Mediterranean Europe are enabling Beijing to control several NATO member states’ critical energy infrastructure at a critical moment in the global balance of power. What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare will be an important reference for NATO officials and US installations operating in the European theater.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Economics, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Renewable Energy, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, Western Europe, and Southeast Europe

80. Systemic Geopolitical Analysis in the research of power distribution in Eastern Europe

Author:: Erwin Metera
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The article presents Systemic Geopolitical Analysis, which as a scientific method can be an important tool for studying the distribution of power in Eastern Europe, supporting the assumptions of structural realism with an element of quantitative research. This region, as a place where spheres of influence and the ensuing economic and potentially military conflicts meet, is an area where the knowledge of the most precise distribution of power may be a crucial element in the analysis of the genesis of conflicts, the shifts in power distribution during their course, as well as in the prediction of future flashpoints. Being the first attempt to correlate Systemic Geopolitical Analysis with the issue of conflicts in Eastern Europe, the paper contains a hypothesis that Systemic Geopolitical Analysis is a research method that enables an effective analysis of the geopolitical reality in the region because of: 1) the conflicts occurring in the system due to differences in power distribution; 2) the nature of the components of power, measurable by the means of Systemic Geopolitical Analysis. Confirming the above hypothesis, the article points to the economic aspect, linked to the Russian natural gas exports, and the military aspect, by taking into account the characteristics of contemporary tensions in the region, which reduce the role of supra-systemic reserves.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Gas, Conflict, Exports, Regional Politics, and Structural Realism
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

81. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Economic Consequences on Europe and the World

Author:: Philip Fwaldin Kasuwa
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: A number of international sanctions have been placed on Russia since it launched an attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in order to persuade the country to de-escalate the conflict. The sanctions imposed on Russia, while designed to harm the Russian economy, had unintended consequences on the world economy, primarily through the disruption of global supply chains. Energy supply shocks, commodities and trade supply shocks were all caused by the conflict. In many nations, this resulted in an increase in worldwide inflation. Despite the fact that Israel and Turkey were instrumental in mediating a peaceful end of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the economic fallout from the crisis continued to reverberate throughout Europe and beyond.
Topic:: Economics, Sanctions, Commodities, Trade, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

82. Role theory and Russia’s attempts to integrate the post-Soviet space: from internal to international duties

Author:: Damian Strycharz
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: With the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow’s foreign policy towards the post-Soviet space has become an even greater area of concern. In order to better understand Russia’s behaviour in the post-Soviet space, it is worth analysing what led to Moscow’s renewed interest in this area. There are numerous accounts explaining Russia’s policies towards its neighbourhood, but they often focus on material factors or Russian imperial complexes. To address the existing gap and examine changes in Moscow’s attitude towards the region, this paper will use role theory and analyse shifts in Russia’s national role conceptions. It argues that the combination of important external and internal factors led to changes in perception of Russia’s international duties and responsibilities between Putin’s rise to power and his return to the presidency in 2012. Consequently, these changes resulted in different understanding of Russia’s role in the post-Soviet space, which had implications for Russia’s increasingly aggressive actions in the region afterwards.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Integration, Post-Soviet Space, Russia-Ukraine War, and Role Theory
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

83. The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Turkish foreign policy towards the Western Balkans

Author:: Jan Niemiec
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The scientific aim of this paper is to analyse and evaluate actions taken by Turkey’s leading politicians with regard to the Western Balkan states (i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the Justice and Development Party came to power in 2002, Turkey has attempted to increase its international influence through diplomatic, economic and cultural measures. Western Balkans region, with which Turks have historical and ethnic ties, is one of the key areas in AKP’s doctrine. Adopting image theory in international relations as the theoretical foundation, this research examines implementation of Turkish foreign policy in the Western Balkans in times of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic. By employing available original Turkish sources (academic publications, public reports, press releases), the main objectives of Turkey’s political strategy towards the region have been determined. Detailed analysis of official statements and speeches of Turkish policy-makers was also fundamental for this study. In this context, the values and symbols to which the AKP government refers in its activities in the Western Balkans have been identified. Based on content analysis, comparative analysis and political discourse analysis, this research seeks to explain the rationale of Turkish actions in recent months. As a conclusion, future prospects for Turkey’s involvement in the Western Balkans have been presented and discussed.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, COVID-19, Policymaking, and Regional Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia

84. Time to Leave China’s “16+1” Influence Trap

Author:: Filip Jirouš
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Last week Estonia and Latvia followed Lithuania and quit what used to be known as 16+1, as the Czech Republic and other participating countries become increasingly vocal in their scepticism of the initiative. The 16+1 format, officially known as Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (中国—中东欧国家合作, Zhongguo-Zhong Dong Ou Guojia Hezuo), was launched in 2012 as a China-centric initiative incorporating 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. In 2019, Greece—which is heavily indebted to China—joined, and the platform was briefly renamed 17+1. While it is officially described as an economic cooperation platform, its real achievements and the PRC’s approach to it show that trade and investment were never its true focus. Rather, the PRC used it as a propaganda and influence tool, wasting CEE diplomatic capacity on activities that only benefited Beijing. The lack of benefits and abundance of risks have recently led several CEE countries to reassess their participation in the 16+1 format. The time has come for the rest of the participating countries to join their Baltic neighbours and ditch this PRC influence vehicle.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Soft Power, Propaganda, and Influence
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Estonia

85. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Western Military Assistance

Author:: Tony Lawrence
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The tenth Brief in the “Russia’s War in Ukraine” series concerns the Western military assistance to Ukraine. Tony Lawrence, the Head of the Defence Policy and Strategy Programme at the ICDS, examines donor dilemmas, and how the Western military assistance has changed the course of the war. He highlights the steps made by Western Allies even before the 24th of February, and their considerations regarding “offensive” and long-range weapons, as well as Russia’s efforts to discourage donors. He concludes that most weapons can be used for both offence and defence, and therefore the Allies earlier argued about self-imposed restrictions. He states that the offensive-defensive dilemma was largely resolved when the war shifted to the east. Donor dilemmas include fear of escalation, the apparently limited capacity of manufacturers to produce replacements, and ensuring that Ukraine is provided with what it needs. Lawrence concludes that the West’s military assistance, far from being historically unprecedented, has been uneven and broadly cautious. Ukraine’s victories are Ukraine’s alone, but they could not have been achieved without Western assistance. The outcome of the war will depend to a large extent on Western supply of weapons and equipment to Ukraine, as Russia’s military strength degrades.
Topic:: Conflict, Foreign Assistance, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

86. Developing Nuclear Energy in Estonia: An Amplifier of Strategic Partnership with the United States?

Author:: Tomas Jermalavicius, Max Bergmann, Peter Crall, Thomas O'Donnell, Tomas Janeliūnas, and Tõnis Idarand
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Estonia’s climate neutrality commitments and its simultaneous pursuit of national security mean that it will need to develop and cultivate new zero- or low-carbon, affordable, secure and safe domestic sources of energy. Nuclear energy is increasingly regarded as one of the critical ingredients of successful transition to climate-neutral energy system and as a viable part of the future decarbonised mix of energy supply. Therefore, Estonia is officially considering the possibility to adopt nuclear energy generated by new-design Small Modular Reactors (SMR). This choice, however, is not purely environmental, economic or technical, but also has geopolitical implications. It would create new long-term inter-dependencies with foreign partners which could represent fresh opportunities for closer cooperation in security and foreign policy domain, but also could create some new political, reputational, and national security risks. This geopolitical dimension is of particular importance to countries such as Estonia that seek greater involvement of key allies such as the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany in the Nordic-Baltic area to counter the geopolitical pressure from Russia and, increasingly, China. The report assumes that Estonia might eventually opt for nuclear energy and would then choose the US as its SMR technology supplier. It explores how Estonia’s foreign and security policy interests would benefit from a potential adoption of nuclear energy and development of technological and commercial relations in this field with the US. The report also maps various potential risks in relations with several key fellow member states of the European Union that may arise from Estonia turning to nuclear power as a major source of energy and to the US for a technological solution. It considers how certain structural issues in national energy policies and divergent geopolitical perspectives of Germany, France, and Poland – as well as some persistent characteristics of intra-European relations manifest through the EU’s common policies – may impair or facilitate Estonian nuclear aspirations. The study also highlights that Estonia’s affirmative decision concerning nuclear energy is likely to draw the attention and actions of malignant actors such as Russia aiming to discredit nuclear energy in general, as a viable pathway to energy security and climate neutrality, and US SMR technology in particular; undermine trust – domestically and internationally – in the ability of the Estonian government and enterprises to ensure competent and responsible stewardship of nuclear energy, and pit Estonia against some key regional and European allies. The report articulates some recommendations on how to better exploit the opportunities related to the US involvement in the development of Estonia’s nuclear energy programme and mitigate the identified risks.
Topic:: Climate Change, National Security, Partnerships, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Estonia, North America, and United States of America

87. Serbia on Edge

Author:: Richard Kraemer
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The time has come to openly regard the Republic of Serbia for what it is: A stalwart Russian and Chinese ally run by a semi-authoritarian government that proactively pursues ideologically irredentist territorial expansion in the Western Balkans. Today’s Serbia poses a threat to regional and transatlantic security. Under President Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), the Serbian government is rapidly building its military, overtly backing ultranationalist provocateurs in neighboring states, cementing Belgrade’s ties to Moscow, and consolidating partnerships with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Integral to its efforts to actualize the “Greater Serbia” ideology, Serbia’s and Russia’s Orthodox Church leadership cooperate closely and in concert with their political counterparts. Without a significant Westward shift in its orientation, Serbia will continue on an authoritarian trajectory aligned with U.S. adversaries. Contemporary Serbia presents a quandary for U.S. and European strategists and policymakers. A genuinely democratic and Euro-Atlantic-oriented Serbia has been sought by Brussels and Washington alike. Yet, decades after Yugoslavia’s violent dissolution and related North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) interventions in the 1990s, most Serbians reject NATO cooperation and are lukewarm towards the European Union (EU). Consequently, the U.S. and its democratic allies in Europe are less able to leverage prospective memberships as a means of transatlantic integration. Further complicating relations with Serbia is Aleksandar Vučić’s overt embrace of Beijing and Moscow. The depth of Serbia’s growing dependence on those powers jeopardizes U.S and European security on multiple fronts. The Vučić government’s enduring endorsement of ultranationalist narratives and their subversive purveyors continues to intensify discord in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. Its military build-up is gravely disconcerting; Belgrade responds only with specious explanations. The country’s ever-greater reliance on Russian oil and gas as a client and transit state for Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy giant, puts it at odds with Brussels, Washington, and several Central-Eastern European capitals. Belgrade and Beijing’s economic, technological, and increasingly military cooperation accelerates as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) further entrenches itself in southeast Europe. In sum: Serbia’s expanding alignment with authoritarian powers and regional anti-democratic forces reflects its illiberal worldview and disabling narrative of national victimhood. Western policymakers persistently view Belgrade’s government with the misunderstanding that, given the right incentives, Serbia will moderate, democratize, and gradually integrate into transatlantic institutions. This assumption is misguided. It diminishes, if not excludes, the need for a national reckoning among the Serbian people. As with post-war Germany’s Willy Brandt, Serbia needs courageous and sincere leadership to acknowledge past sins and move the nation forward. For example: A genuine Kniefall von Warschau event could spur an honest discussion among Serbian peoples about the atrocities committed during Yugoslavia’s dissolution. Whatever the catalyst, a broad acknowledgment of past crimes against humanity is categorical if Serbia is ever to become a democratic and open society. Without it, Serbs will remain disproportionately susceptible to domestic irredentist forces fed by malign foreign powers set on keeping the Western Balkans removed from the transatlantic community. Until such a national reckoning, Western decision-makers should adopt a more pragmatic approach to relations with a Belgrade government dismissive of genuine transatlantic partnerships. For as long as Pan-Serb ultranationalism is considered by Serbia’s leaders to be acceptable in political discourse, the kind of genuine democratic values and institutions shared within the transatlantic community will remain unrealized. Accordingly, the U.S. and its European allies should encourage Serbia to focus on itself, not its neighbors. In that vein, Western policymakers would be wise to stop expecting a breakthrough in Kosovo-Serbia status negotiations. It has become an empty dialogue that only keeps Kosovo locked outside of international institutions and other benefits of recognized statehood. A revised approach should also discontinue pushing an ineffective EU integration process as the primary means of democratically transforming Serbia.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Ideology, and Expansion
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Balkans

88. Questions Concerning Finnish Membership in NATO

Author:: Mike Sweeney
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Admitting Finland into NATO constitutes a permanent defense commitment by the alliance. In the case of the United States, it also entails a further extension of its nuclear umbrella. Such moves warrant a fulsome public debate, not a rush to action. Consideration of the defensibility of Finland must take into account a revitalized, long-term Russian threat, not just the force currently mired in a grinding war in Ukraine. More thorough discussion is needed about Finland’s capacity to defend itself and the level of outside support it would require from NATO and, specifically, the U.S. military. Regardless of whether it admits Finland, NATO should support it in any future crises with Russia. But the nature of that support changes depending on whether Finland is an alliance member or not, with attendant implications for the level of risk NATO incurs. U.S. forces cannot be everywhere at once. New, permanent security commitments in northern Europe need to be examined relative to other U.S. global priorities.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Finland, and Eastern Europe

89. Lessons for Taiwan from Ukraine

Author:: Sascha Glaeser
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The Russo-Ukraine war is analogous in several ways to a hypothetical war between China and Taiwan. Like Ukraine, Taiwan is a relatively weak state, threatened by a neighboring great power with a sizable nuclear arsenal who makes historical claims to its territory, and has some backing from the United States. Ukraine’s experience provides several lessons for Taiwan. War remains an instrument of statecraft that great powers use in pursuit of their perceived national interests; smaller, weaker states should plan accordingly. In Taiwan’s case, that means continuation of the status quo which has helped provide peace for decades. Taiwan should assume the United States will not engage in direct conflict with China on its behalf. This assumption should encourage Taiwan to focus its military strategy on securing an advantage by acquiring more anti-access, area-denial capability and reforming its reserve force to help it deter or resist an invasion. While Ukraine shows Taiwan could expect an outpouring of global humanitarian and military aid if attacked, its island geography and the likely course of the war means it might not manage to receive or access those supplies, and should therefore maintain strategic stockpiles of weapons, ammunition, food, fuel, and other supplies. The United States and others will likely impose economic sanctions on China. However, sanctions are unlikely to alter China’s behavior in any meaningful way if it has already committed to war.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Taiwan, and Asia

90. American Interests in the Ukraine War

Author:: Joshua Shifrinson
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Policymakers have poorly defined U.S. strategic interests in the Russia-Ukraine War. Those interests that have been defined—deterring future aggression and protecting the “liberal order”—do not stand up to scrutiny. Actual U.S. interests in Ukraine are essentially negative: preventing further escalation or spillover of the conflict and limiting a wholesale collapse in U.S.-Russian relations. The limited interests that the U.S. does have in Ukraine suggest that Washington should try to convince Ukraine and Russia to accept a negotiated settlement.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Liberal Order, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and United States of America

91. Prepare Ukraine for Victory in a Long War

Author:: Luke Coffey
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine for the second time in eight years. While many assumed that the war would be short, a stiff Ukrainian defense halted and then successfully counter-attacked against the Russian advances on Kyiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv. After capturing Kherson, Russia’s main advance from occupied Crimea in the south toward Mykolaiv also stalled. At the time of writing, Ukrainian forces are beginning a counterattack in that region and are located approximately 12 miles outside Kherson city center. Mariupol, on the Sea of Azov coastline, fell to the Russians on May 22 after Ukrainian forces made a heroic last stand in the Azovstal iron and steel works. This capture allowed Russia to create a land bridge from the Russian Federation to occupied Crimea. Mariupol’s capture also turned the Sea of Azov into a Russian lake.”1 In the Donbas, which is arguably Russia’s main effort at this stage of the war, Russian troops have made limited advances at a very high cost in equipment and manpower. In late June, Russian forces captured Sievierodonetsk after weeks of heavy fighting, leaving Russia in control of Ukraine’s Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainians are currently defending a front line that is approximately 1,250 miles long—this is equal to the straight- line distance from Washington, DC, to Houston, Texas. Russian public opinion still supports the war.”2 While Russia’s advancements in the Donbas have been slow and costly, there is no indication that Moscow will stop its offensive anytime soon. President Vladimir Putin knows that his legacy rides on Russia’s victory or defeat in Ukraine.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

92. Russia Can Still Be Defeated, But Time Is Short

Author:: Can Kasapoglu
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: At Davos last May, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger sparked a controversy when he argued that Kyiv must cede territory to Moscow to achieve peace. Kissinger may well be correct to assert that a stable balance between Russia and Ukraine will require some trade-offs based on the principles of Realpolitik. But we should not delude ourselves into thinking that Putin—a former KGB officer who considers the collapse of the Soviet Union to have been the greatest catastrophe of the twentieth century—launched this war simply to secure a border readjustment. Putin’s essay, published in April 2021, expresses his view with admirable clarity: Ukraine, in the eyes of the Kremlin, is Russia. In sum, he launched this invasion to subordinate Ukraine to Moscow—totally and permanently. We should also not conclude that Russia’s battlefield setbacks have been so severe as to deflect Putin from his original goal. After he failed to subordinate Ukraine swiftly with a quick knockout blow directed at the capital, Kyiv, he moved to Plan B: a strategy of exhaustion. He is now determined to grind Ukraine down slowly and deliberately with the expectation that eventually it will have no choice but to bow to his iron fist. For its part, the West should thwart Putin’s strategy by safeguarding Ukraine’s political and economic independence. Kissinger’s comments did not bring us closer to achieving that goal. If members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) follow his lead and attempt to cajole Kyiv into ceding territory now, while Russia still believes it has the upper hand on the battlefield, their efforts will only whet Putin’s appetite for expansion. Putin will begin to entertain compromises acceptable to the West only when he comes to believe that failure to do so will lead inevitably to catastrophic losses for Russia. The bad news is that the military balance on the ground right now will not lead him to such a conclusion. If NATO members act quickly, however, there is still time to shift the dynamic in Ukraine’s favor—but it will not be easy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Organization, National Security, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

93. Six Months after the Russian Invasion, the West Needs Better Clock Management

Author:: Peter Rough, Luke Coffey, and Rebeccah L. Heinrichs
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Ukraine’s status as a borderland between Europe and Russia has often confined it to the periphery of Western strategic thought. For many, Ukraine constitutes the southeastern edge of the European continent, but not its heartland. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, Ukraine sits at the center of his strategic vision for Eurasia. Far from a backwater, the country is the key to his imperial aims—a prize for which he has risked his army and bet his rule. In Putin’s mind, if Russia were to control Ukraine, Moscow would dominate the Black Sea—and so would be in a stronger position in every connected region, from Eastern Europe to the South Caucasus and from the Balkans to the Caspian Basin. Russia would also complete its breakout into the Eastern Mediterranean, long a priority of Moscow, by securing the connection between its warm water ports in the Black Sea to its new bases on the Syrian coast.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

94. Ten Myths about US Aid to Ukraine

Author:: Luke Coffey
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Ukraine is in a national struggle that will determine its geopolitical future: the country will either be a firm member of the Euro-Atlantic community or become a Russian colony. The outcome of this struggle will have long-term implications for America’s global interests, the future of the transatlantic community, and the notion of national sovereignty in the twenty-first century. Russia is a top geopolitical adversary for the United States. For Americans who believe in strong and secure national borders, the primacy of national sovereignty, and the right to self-defense, support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression is natural. Considering America’s other geopolitical concerns, such as a rising China and a healthy economic relationship with Europe that benefits the American worker, US support for Ukraine is an imperative. Ukrainians are not asking for, nor do they want, US troops to help them fight Russia. All they ask for is the equipment, weapons, munitions, and financial resources required to give them a fighting chance. Providing Ukraine what it needs to fight Russia effectively will not be cheap. So far this year, the US Congress has voted on three different supplementals for Ukraine: $13.6 billion in March, $40.1 billion in May, and $12.4 billion in September. The cost that American taxpayers incur to help Ukraine is money well spent and will pale in comparison to the cost of deterring a victorious Russia or an emboldened China on the global stage. As the war continues, Congress will likely pass additional spending. It is in America’s interest that Ukraine wins the war, and that Russia is decisively defeated. Even though polling overwhelmingly shows broad and bipartisan support for Ukraine, some in Congress are against further US aid for Ukraine.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Spending, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, North America, and United States of America

95. Legal Mobilisation for Minority Rights in Central and South-Eastern Europe: an agenda for action

Author:: Lilla Farkas and Zsolt Körtvélyesi
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: On September 2–3, 2021, a workshop was held at ELIAMEP at which participants discussed their prospective contributions to a collective volume with the working title “Legal Mobilisation for Minority Rights in Central and South-eastern Europe (CSEE)”. The contributions tracked rights-claiming by three large groups of minorities in areas historically ruled by the multicultural Austro-Hungarian monarchy and the Ottoman empire: Hungarian minorities living around their kin-state, Roma across CSEE, and Muslims in the Balkans, including Turks, Muslims, Albanians, and Bosniaks. The edited volume will be the first systemic study of minority-rights activism in its political and geographic context, with a focus on how ethnic minorities use law in practice. Rather than focusing on high-visibility international litigation, which is dominant in the extant scholarship, the volume tracks legal action from the national and local level up, assessing the impact of legal mobilization in terms of social change, not simply legal success.
Topic:: Human Rights, Law, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Activism
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Balkans, Hungary, and Central Europe

96. The Ukraine Crisis: There Is Still Room for Diplomacy

Author:: George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Confronting each other over the future of Ukraine, NATO and Russia are engaged in complicated diplomatic bargaining over security, power and the limits of the transatlantic alliance in Europe. Diplomacy can work toward a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis, in spite of the heated public rhetoric. The US and the EU share a common objective in preventing a war in the short term and reaching an understanding with Russia in the longer term. The EU may not be at the negotiating table, but it is still actively involved in the diplomatic discussions. It plays an important role via deterrence and diplomacy in several fora, while France is steadily upgrading its geopolitical standing and pursuing a modus vivendi with Russia. Greece is closely monitoring the Ukrainian crisis and supports all de-escalation efforts. The presence of Greek diaspora communities in Ukraine is an important factor. So are Turkey’s efforts to assume a mediating role between Ukraine and Russia with a view to upgrading its own NATO standing.
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, European Union, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and United States of America

97. Breaking Barriers to Women’s Participation in Politics in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine

Author:: Daryna Dvornichenko
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: For Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, the long road to EU membership requires not only economic convergence and approximation of their laws with the EU acquis communautaire but also the adoption of EU fundamental values, including progress toward gender equality. In the context of their efforts to pursue reforms and to build democratic institutions, these countries have no choice but incorporate a gender lens into their political discourse and practice. However, their common underlying characteristics, as well as a similar level of external pressure from donors and international organizations, are not necessarily leading to similar results for their gender-related reform attempts, in particular when it comes women’s participation in politics. This paper examines the barriers that still inhibit women’s political participation in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. It explains the main roots of women’s underrepresentation, first looking at public attitudes in the three countries regarding the efficiency of women politicians and the male-dominated political environment. Based on interviews with women politicians in the three countries, the research focuses on the use of gender quotas for participation in elections at the national and local levels. It describes the path to introducing gender quotas and explores the factors that determine the limits of their effectiveness. The paper then looks at other instruments for mainstreaming gender-balanced policies and their enduring limitations. The most tangible positive results related to these reforms are the introduction of gender quotas in elections in all three countries, a shift to full proportional representation in the electoral system that resulted in a rapid increase in the proportion of women in parliament in Moldova, and the introduction of a rule mandating the replacement of elected women by other women in case of leaving their seat early in Georgia at the local and national level. Women politicians continue to face many gender-related challenges. Non-transparent recruitment in political parties, loopholes in legislation that allow parties to circumvent gender quotas, and the weakness and ineffectiveness formal institutions intended to mainstream gender equality are key obstacles for women in starting and developing a political career. At the societal level, much of the public still holds deep-seated gender stereotypes that act as barriers to women taking more active part in the political decision-making process. The numerous persistent factors that hamper women’s political participation prove that Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine still have much to do to create a level playing field for men and women in politics. The paper offers recommendations for domestic and external actors—including lawmakers, political parties, the media, and foreign donors—on possible ways to enhance women’s participation with policy approaches concerning female leadership and gender-balanced decision-making.
Topic:: Elections, Women, Domestic Politics, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

98. Toward a New Youth Brain-drain Paradigm in the Western Balkans

Author:: Marjan Icoski
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Youth brain drain is one of the most worrisome problems for the Western Balkan Six countries (WB6)—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Serbia. The pace and intensity of youth brain drain, rank the WB6 among the top brain drain leaders in the world, with estimations to lose a quarter to half of its skilled and educated young citizens in the forthcoming decades. A situation that cast serious doubts on the democratic and economic progress of WB6, and their prospective membership into the EU. Youth brain drain is a historically rooted topic in the culture and tradition of the WB6, provoking huge sentiments and heated public debates. Due to its sensitivity, it is prone to politicization and misuse by the political parties that did not manage to find a compromise for its full acknowledgment as a separate policy field. Therefore, to date, the policy approach to youth brain drain is declarative and inconsistent, tackled as part of bigger policy areas such as youth employment, education, and diaspora engagement. Although formally, all WB6 countries have policies and institutional mechanisms in place, youth emigration and the desire to leave are constantly on the rise, underlining their limited scope and impact to keep youth home. This paper analyzes the conceptual shortcomings of the current policy approach. In line with the latest trends and tendencies of youth brain drain, it offers fresh policy options for utilization of the potential of the regional youth diaspora as the new WB6 development doctrine. The paper sees the youth diaspora not only as a source of remittances but also as a source of investments, know-how, skills, and connections as per the examples of several EU member states. The paper further announces the necessary paradigm change grounded in the shift of the public narrative and redesign of return and circulation policies through deepening regional cooperation and establishing a new migration deal with the EU under the framework of the WB6 accession processes.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Migration, Brain Drain, and Youth
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Central Europe

99. Designing Sanctions: Lessons from EU Restrictive Measures against Belarus

Author:: Yuliya Miadzvetskaya
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The effectiveness and impact of sanctions are predetermined by how they are designed. This paper looks at the different elements in the design of European Union sanctions on Belarus in its different stages, their main pitfalls, and their potential effects on the country and its citizens. Several key elements are important for the design of sanctions: the triggering situation, the type of sanctions, the clarity of objectives and targets, the evidence for listings, and the conditions for review. They are crucial for explaining the mismatch between the objectives of EU sanctions and their limited impact. The gravity of the situation that triggers the introduction of sanctions is closely linked to the type of restrictive measures that will be chosen by the EU. Threats to EU and regional security as well as to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of its neighbors result in more complex measures, including sectoral economic sanctions, export restrictions, and flight bans. In the case of Belarus, broader economic measures were enacted in response to growing security threats to the EU and its partners. An analysis of EU sanctions on Belarus, including their cyclical nature, suggests that they have been most effective when their objective is limited and achievable. The release of political prisoners, cosmetic reforms to the Electoral Code, and the partial solution of the migration crisis are the most obvious examples of concessions that were made by the Belarusian authorities following the imposition of sanctions. Overly ambitious sanctions objectives limit the EU’s room for maneuver and bargaining. Bringing to justice those responsible for forced disappearances and human-rights violations or holding new free and fair elections are inacceptable demands for the Belarusian regime because they endanger its survival as it relies on the law-enforcement institutions. The effects of sanctions also depend on whom can be added on sanctions lists. Listing or designation criteria define conditions under which someone can be targeted. Those for Belarus were significantly updated in 2021 and now target those responsible for violations of human rights and election falsification, entities and persons benefitting from the regime, and those responsible for the forced landing of a Ryanair plane, the instrumentalization of the migration crisis, and Belarus’s involvement in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The broadening of the listing criteria increases the sanctioning power of the EU and paves the way for the extension of sanctions listings. The EU enacts sanctions by providing a statement of reasons that must come under the listing criteria and be substantiated with sufficient evidence for each listing. Based on EU sanctions-related case law, sanctions are designed in a way that takes into consideration the due-process rights of targeted individuals and entities. The EU Council has deployed a degree of legal gymnastics in crafting its sanctions on Belarus to increase their traction, notably by using the broad concepts of “support” for and “benefit” from the regime’s actions. Conditions for the review of sanctions are construed as requirements addressed to the targeted state. The fulfillment of these or some variation in the behavior of the target could trigger the partial suspension or the lifting of restrictive measures. Those conditions in EU sanctions against Belarus are sometimes included in EU legal acts and sometimes in other political statements. Clear-cut conditions for reviewing sanctions would help in improving their effects. The paper concludes with suggestions regarding the EU sanctions policy toward Belarus, notably with respect to national bias and to the need for a proper prior impact assessment, realistic objectives, clear communication, and more leverage for the EU.
Topic:: Sanctions, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Society
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

100. The ‘Kosovo Precedent’: Russia’s justification of military interventions and territorial revisions in Georgia and Ukraine

Author:: Valur Ingimundarson
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this latest Strategic Update, Valur Ingimundarson explores Russia’s use of the ‘Kosovo precedent’, in order to instrumentalise its violation of international norms for geopolitical gain in the post-Soviet space. Ever since Kosovo’s 2008 unique and contested independence process, Russia has increasingly relied paradoxically on the Kosovo case to legally justify support for secession within, and now overt military expansionism into, post-Soviet territory: from its invasion of Georgia and support for South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to the incorporation of Crimea into the Federation, its invasion of Ukraine, and current effort to absorb the Donbass region.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Military Intervention, Expansion, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Georgia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS