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1. Developing Nuclear Energy in Estonia: An Amplifier of Strategic Partnership with the United States?

Author:
Tomas Jermalavicius, Max Bergmann, Peter Crall, Thomas O'Donnell, Tomas Janeliūnas, and Tõnis Idarand
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Estonia’s climate neutrality commitments and its simultaneous pursuit of national security mean that it will need to develop and cultivate new zero- or low-carbon, affordable, secure and safe domestic sources of energy. Nuclear energy is increasingly regarded as one of the critical ingredients of successful transition to climate-neutral energy system and as a viable part of the future decarbonised mix of energy supply. Therefore, Estonia is officially considering the possibility to adopt nuclear energy generated by new-design Small Modular Reactors (SMR). This choice, however, is not purely environmental, economic or technical, but also has geopolitical implications. It would create new long-term inter-dependencies with foreign partners which could represent fresh opportunities for closer cooperation in security and foreign policy domain, but also could create some new political, reputational, and national security risks. This geopolitical dimension is of particular importance to countries such as Estonia that seek greater involvement of key allies such as the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany in the Nordic-Baltic area to counter the geopolitical pressure from Russia and, increasingly, China. The report assumes that Estonia might eventually opt for nuclear energy and would then choose the US as its SMR technology supplier. It explores how Estonia’s foreign and security policy interests would benefit from a potential adoption of nuclear energy and development of technological and commercial relations in this field with the US. The report also maps various potential risks in relations with several key fellow member states of the European Union that may arise from Estonia turning to nuclear power as a major source of energy and to the US for a technological solution. It considers how certain structural issues in national energy policies and divergent geopolitical perspectives of Germany, France, and Poland – as well as some persistent characteristics of intra-European relations manifest through the EU’s common policies – may impair or facilitate Estonian nuclear aspirations. The study also highlights that Estonia’s affirmative decision concerning nuclear energy is likely to draw the attention and actions of malignant actors such as Russia aiming to discredit nuclear energy in general, as a viable pathway to energy security and climate neutrality, and US SMR technology in particular; undermine trust – domestically and internationally – in the ability of the Estonian government and enterprises to ensure competent and responsible stewardship of nuclear energy, and pit Estonia against some key regional and European allies. The report articulates some recommendations on how to better exploit the opportunities related to the US involvement in the development of Estonia’s nuclear energy programme and mitigate the identified risks.
Topic:
Climate Change, National Security, Partnerships, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Estonia, North America, and United States of America

2. Are Small Modular Reactors Europe’s Energy Salvation?

Author:
Manuel Herrera
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Nuclear power has never lived up to expectations due to its enormous development, construction and maintenance costs, as well as safety concerns. However, governments committed to ambitious climate change targets have taken a second look at it. In Europe, for instance, in January this year, the European Commission added nuclear power to the list of projects eligible for green financing and, in July, included it in its taxonomy.[1] Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, meanwhile, has sent fossil fuel prices soaring and put energy security at the top of the political agenda in Europe.
Topic:
Climate Change, Nuclear Power, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

3. Russia’s Climate Action and Geopolitics of Energy Transition: The Uncertain and Unsettling Outlook following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Kamila Godzinska and Maria Pastukhova
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly altered the outlook for Russia’s energy transition and created uncertainties on the global path towards net zero. In response to global economic shifts, Russia had begun taking steps towards decarbonisation, albeit without plans to depart from its hydrocarbon-based economic model in any substantial way. The new political, trade and financial environment induced by Russia’s act of aggression has damaged its potential to maintain the once-emerging momentum. Russia’s actions and the Western response are also reconfiguring global energy relations, with profound economic and geopolitical consequences that may, unless managed, undermine international cooperation on the energy transition and slow down progress on climate change mitigation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Sanctions, Geopolitics, and Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

4. Sea Change for Europe’s Security Order: Three Future Scenarios

Author:
Christian Mölling, Tyson Barker, David Hagebölling, Afra Herr, and Kai Kornhuber
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The war of aggression that Russia launched against Ukraine in February has destroyed the European security order. The German government has defined this moment as a sea change (Zeitenwende) for its foreign and security policy. It still must envisage and shape a new order. Key factors are whether Europe will be united in strategic policy areas, and how Russia will position itself.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Science and Technology, European Union, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe

5. Energising EU enlargement? The prospects of the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans

Author:
Wouter Zweers, Giulia Cretti, and Kristina Naunova
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
With the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans, the 2050 climate neutrality goal of the European Union has been extended to the six countries in South-Eastern Europe that aspire to join the Union. The Green Agenda is a promising tool for fostering climate and energy policy measures in the Western Balkans, a region with high vulnerability to climate change risks and little energy diversification away from coal. But could the Green Agenda also be a catalyst for renewed interest and enhanced political engagement, leading to a much-needed impetus to the EU enlargement process? This policy brief asks how the Green Agenda can work in the interest of both the objective of a climate neutral continent and the EU accession of the Western Balkan countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Diversification
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

6. Stepping up the greenification Policy Brief of the power sector in the Western Balkans

Author:
Luuk Molthof, Giulia Cretti, and Aleksandar Macura
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This Clingendael series ‘The Green Agenda for the Western Balkans’ provides an inside perspective on the EU climate ambitions for the Western Balkan Six (Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia) and the challenges ahead. In this second contribution, we analyse the state of affairs with regard to energy diversification and greenification. The energy sector in most Western Balkan countries is characterised by a heavy dependency on coal and outdated production facilities, posing severe environmental challenges to the region. Possessing significant renewable energy potential, the Western Balkan Six (WB6) in theory have good prospects of making a successful energy transition. In terms of natural resources, the region is also well placed as Albania and Serbia possess solid reserves of metals and rare earths that are needed to develop energy transition technologies, such as batteries, smart grids, solar panels and windmills. Yet the transition is hampered by several economic and political factors, such as a highly centralised energy market with only a few large suppliers, dynamics of clientelism and controversial outside investment (such as from China). This policy brief analyses the current challenges that prevent energy diversification and greenification in the region and asks how the recently launched EU Green Agenda for the Western Balkans can address these challenges.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

7. The Green Agenda: Providing Policy Brief breathing space for Western Balkans citizens?

Author:
Paul Hofhuis, Wouter Zweers, Giulia Cretti, and Srdja Popovic
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This Clingendael series ‘The Green Agenda for the Western Balkans’ provides an inside perspective on the EU climate ambitions for the Western Balkan Six (Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia) and the challenges ahead. In this third contribution, we analyse the state of affairs with regard to pollution. Across the Western Balkans, air, water and soil pollution levels are incredibly high. Public health is continuously jeopardised by air pollution arising from local heating sources and energy production plants. The Green Agenda for the Western Balkans aims to assist the region in tackling pollution problems and aligning the countries’ environmental quality regulation with the European acquis. This paper analyses the state of affairs with regard to air, water and soil pollution in the WB6 and examines how it affects citizens’ health and socioeconomic prospects. The policy brief argues that countries in the Western Balkans need to address a coal phase-out while simultaneously tackling energy poverty. The EU could more actively support this, not only by providing a platform for dialogue, but through supporting programmes for renewable energy provisions and infrastructure, reskilling of workers and job creation. The Sofia Declaration, that sets out the Green Agenda, needs to be complemented with measures to ensure compliance with environmental regulations, preferably by involving civil society organisations in monitoring implementation and raising public awareness of the socioeconomic costs of pollution.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Pollution, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia

8. Latvia’s Climate Policy

Author:
Kinga Raś
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
At the end of January 2020, the Latvian government approved the country’s climate neutrality strategy until 2050, and in March it supported even more ambitious EU targets for reducing emissions. These declarations are connected with the need for a thorough transformation of the economy. The Latvian authorities combine these changes with the outlook for economic growth, including the development of the newest technologies in the energy sector. Latvia’s approach, subordinated to climate action, coincides with the policy of other countries in the region, but differs from the Polish vision of energy transformation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Government, Europe Union, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Poland, and Latvia

9. Our Europe: 15 Years of Poland in the European Union

Author:
Jerzy Wilkin, Joanna Konieczna-Sałamatin, Mirosława Marody, Maja Sawicka, Paweł Kaczmarczyk, Jan J. Michałek, Andrzej Halesiak, Stanisława Golinowska, Irena Topińska, Anna Fornalczyk, Richard Woodward, Grzegorz Gorzelak, Andrzej Kwieciński, Katarzyna Zawalińska, Przemysław Kowalski, Anna Malinowska, Wiesława Kozek, Magdalena Kąkol, Maciej Nowicki, Grzegorz Wiśniewski, Andrzej Cylwik, Tomasz Komornicki, Urszula Sztanderska, Jacek Liwiński, Dorota Ilczuk, Anna Karpińska, Przemysław Kowalski, Mateusz Szczurek, Stanisław Gomułka, and Paweł Wojciechowski
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report is the result of the joint work of a number of experts from various fields who have been - for many years – analysing the multidimensional effects of EU institutions and cooperation with Member States pursuant to European values and mechanisms. The authors summarise the benefits of Poland’s membership in the EU based on facts; however, they do not hide their own views and reflections. They also demonstrate the barriers and challenges to further European integration. This report was prepared by CASE, one of the oldest independent think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe, utilising its nearly 30 years of experience in providing objective analyses and recommendations with respect to socioeconomic topics. It is both an expression of concern about Poland’s future in the EU, as well as the authors’ contribution to the debate on further European integration.
Topic:
Climate Change, Demographics, Energy Policy, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Regional Integration, Social Policy, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

10. Policy uncertainty and renewable energy investments in Romania

Author:
Mihnea-George Filip
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Mobilizing private investments for the renewable energy transition requires credible policy support over the long-term. This Policy Brief discusses how Romania’s abrupt policy changes and inconsistent policy signals over the last decade have deterred private investments in the renewable energy sector. The example of Romania provides key policy lessons for other countries engaged in the energy transition. Romania has one of the highest renewable energy potentials in Europe (up to 71 GW), which is approximately six times higher than the country’s current renewable deployment (IRENA 2017). As shown in Figure 1, wind and solar PV energy experienced a significant boom between 2009 and 2013 followed by a more or less complete stagnation since 2014.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Green Technology, Investment, Economic Policy, Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Romania