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21. Is the COVID-19 Pandemic Recasting Global Value Chains in East Asia?

Author:
Nobuaki Yamashita and K. Fukasaku
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper assesses how the current COVID-19 pandemic is shaping global value chains in East Asia after the formidable disruptions inflicted by the health crisis. Some have expressed the view that global value chains would readjust and production processes would move home, i.e. reshoring, facilitated by the recent movement of protectionism measures in the post-pandemic world. We evaluate such concerns and examine the role of policy with a focus on non-tariff measures in East Asia.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

22. Impacts of COVID-19 on the Energy Demand Situation of East Asia Summit Countries

Author:
Shigeru Kimura, Ikarii Ryohei, and Endo Seiya
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has brought us a ‘New Normal’ life style and the lockdown has severely harmed economic growth, with many countries estimated to record negative economic growth in 2020. Due to the high correlation between energy demand and economic growth, energy demand is also affected. Against this background, ERIA analyses how energy demand has decreased as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic using East Asia Summit (EAS) energy outlook models that are regularly updated by ERIA and apply an econometric approach. The outlook models cover the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 10 countries plus seven countries – Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, and the United States. According to gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates for EAS countries in 2020, only three countries – China, Lao PDR, and Viet Nam – show positive growth, though less than 2%, and the others show negative growth. Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) of the EAS countries fell in 2020, but it is expected to rebound in 2021 and projected to return to the originally forecast trend of energy demand up to 2050. Once official energy statistics become available, a comparison between model results and actual statistics will be made to understand how the energy outlook models trace the impact of the pandemic on energy demand.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Models
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

23. The Trade Restrictiveness Index and Its Impact on Trade Performance in Selected East Asian Countries

Author:
Norlin Khalid, Muhamad Rias K.V. Zainuddin, Tamat Sarmidi, Sufian Jusoh, Faliq Razak, and Mohd Helmi Ali
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper aims to investigate the effect of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on trade in selected East Asian countries. In doing so, we first estimate the ad valorem equivalent (AVE) of NTMs and construct an augmented trade restrictiveness index (ATRI) by measuring the overall external regulations imposed by importing countries. Second, we analyse the effect of the AVE and trade restrictiveness index (TRI) of importing nations on the exports of various sub-sector products for each country in selected East Asian countries. Based on a standard gravity model framework, we perform a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) regression at the sectoral level (Harmonized System 2-digit) for total exports and major sub-sectors (agri-food, health, logistics, and manufacturing). The findings show that the ATRI has a negative and significant relationship towards bilateral exports for total exports, manufacturing, and logistics sub-sectors. The negative impacts of the ATRI also highlight that trade barriers play a significant role in bilateral exports. NTM restrictions (proxied by the calculated AVE of NTMs) imposed by importing countries have mixed results for technical and non-technical measures. Where technical measures have negative and significant impacts on bilateral exports for total exports, manufacturing, and health sub-sectors. This implies that implementation of technical NTMs such as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and technical barrier to trade (TBT) measures in importing nations adversely affect bilateral exports for these sub-sectors. This is in line with our hypothesis, as exporters may face difficulties in meeting the current NTM specifications, leading to lower bilateral exports. In addition, the results show that most trade agreements have a positive and significant relationship with ASEAN and East Asia countries’ bilateral exports, suggesting that free trade agreements enhance trade between countries.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Non-Tariff Measures
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

24. Divisions on US-China Policy: Opinion Leaders and the Public

Author:
Craig Kafura, Dina Smeltz, Joshua W. Busby, Joshua D. Kertzer, and Jonathan Monten
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Craig Kafura, Dina Smeltz, Joshua Busby, Joshua D. Kertzer, Jonathan Monten, and Jordan Tama analyze recent surveys of foreign policy professionals and the American public on the degree of threat posed by China and how the United States should respond. As President Joseph Biden returns to the White House, this time to sit behind the Resolute desk, perhaps no foreign policy question looms larger than that of US-China relations. The results of the 2020 Chicago Council Survey and the 2020 Chicago Council on Global Affairs-University of Texas at Austin survey of foreign policy professionals and the American public find there are significant partisan differences among leaders and the public on the degree of threat posed by China and how the United States should respond. When it comes to defending Taiwan, however, the divisions are not between partisans but between the public and opinion leaders, with the public in opposition and leaders in support of an American defense of Taiwan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
China, East Asia, North America, and United States of America

25. Preventing Nuclear Proliferation and Reassuring America's Allies

Author:
Ivo H. Daalder, Chuck Hagel, Malcolm Rifkind, and Kevin Rudd
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
In recent decades, the threat of nuclear proliferation has emanated primarily from the Middle East and from south and northeast Asia. But the proliferation threat wasn’t always concentrated in these regions. Long before countries like North Korea and Iran topped the list of nuclear threats, leaders in Washington and elsewhere worried about a different group of countries—America’s allies in Europe and Asia. Indeed, in the early 1960s, intelligence officials projected that by the mid-1970s there likely would be 10 to 15 nuclear powers in the world within a decade, as countries like Australia, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey would opt to join a growing nuclear club. The nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968 was designed to prevent this, and it did. But it succeeded in large part because of a concerted US effort since the 1960s to reassure its allies around the world that America’s nuclear umbrella would extend to their territory and ensure their security. Rather than developing their own national nuclear capabilities, key allies in Europe and Asia opted to rely on the US nuclear guarantee instead. Since the NPT entered into force in 1970, just four countries (India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea) have acquired nuclear weapons. More recently, however, questions about the credibility of the American nuclear guarantee have arisen again in Europe and Asia. Allies in both regions confront growing military threats from a resurgent Russia, a rising China, and a nuclear North Korea. At the same time, successive US administrations have sought to retreat from some longstanding commitments, leaving America’s allies around the world uncertain whether they can still rely on the United States for their defense and security—nuclear and otherwise. So far, the discussions about nuclear deterrence and reassurance have played out largely beyond public view. But the issue is becoming increasingly salient, given growing threats from Russia and China especially, and growing doubts about the United States. America and its allies cannot ignore this new reality. For if we are to prevent new nuclear proliferation among these allies, it is essential to acknowledge that what has long been unthinkable is becoming thinkable once more.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe, East Asia, North America, and United States of America

26. Americans, Japanese, and South Koreans Wary of China's Intentions

Author:
Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Dina Smeltz
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
American, Japanese, and South Korean publics see China as a more of a threat than a partner. Trilateral cooperation will be key to managing China's rise. Against a backdrop of growing regional rivalry, March and April 2021 surveys conducted in the United States, Japan, and South Korea show that publics in all three countries share similar views of China’s growing influence and intentions. But the data also show that internal divisions within the US-Japan-South Korea relationship will pose challenges to deeper cooperation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Japan, China, East Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

27. Cooperating, Competing, Confronting: US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral Cooperation as China Rises

Author:
Ichiro Fujisaki, Han Sung-Joo, and Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
The US-China relationship will be one of the most important in defining the international order in the 21st century. As the two countries enter an increasingly competitive phase in relations, both must manage the policy mix of confrontation, competition, and cooperation. If mismanaged, competition could quickly tilt toward miscalculation and armed conflict. For the United States, a poor mix of these policy elements could also lead to a hastened US decline, rapidly ceding the Asia-Pacific to China’s leadership, leaving regional allies at risk of coercion under the threat of China’s military and economic power. The nature of the challenge posed by China, the economic interdependence in the region, and serious questions about US leadership necessitate a fundamental reevaluation of trilateral cooperation. Effective US policy in the region hinges on getting policy right with the two most important US allies in the region—Japan and South Korea. While alliances are among the most important advantages the United States holds in its competition with China, South Korea and Japan hold particular importance given the values they share with the United States, as well as their dynamic economies, growing military capabilities, influence in the region, and geostrategic location. But the inherent advantages of these allies can only be drawn upon if the United States recommits itself to the region and to investing in and upholding these long-standing relationships. The persistent doubts about US commitment to and leadership in the region involve not only political will and competence but growing questions of economic feasibility as well. Doubts about the United States are leading Japan and South Korea to consider all options in terms of their security. Unlike the Cold War with the Soviet Union, the United States will not be able to draw a line in the sand, demand that its allies and partners toe that line, and still expect to compete effectively. Such an approach will further erode US credibility and confidence in US leadership. This reality will necessitate a deep mutual trust between the trilateral partners and greater tolerance for the distinct needs and interests of all three countries. A better understanding of how each country views its role in the region, its relationship with China, areas of cooperation, and the limits for each country in dealing with China is vital.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
China, East Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

28. Inclusive COVID-19 Relief Finance

Author:
Amanda Lenhardt
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has turned all countries’ attention to mitigating the impacts of the crisis, and with this attention has come a wave of finance to address the immediate health risks of the disease and the indirect effects on economies and on well-being. With this influx of spending on welfare and resilience, many have looked on with hope that this collective effort can be done in such a way that the world can ‘build back better.’ But, like any building project, the foundation is critical. This paper sets out to investigate whether countries are investing in the foundational social and economic structures that have led to the vulnerabilities currently upending people’s lives. Failure to address the structural inequalities embedded within societies and across the global political economic structure will ultimately leave the new structure vulnerable to collapse in the long term, and risks exposing marginalized groups to the harshest impacts of the crisis in the short term.
Topic:
Economy, Crisis Management, COVID-19, Marginalization, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
South Asia, East Asia, South Africa, and Latin America

29. Social Contracts: A Pathway for More Inclusive Societies

Author:
Erin McCandless
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
States and societies are in crisis around the world, as questions arise around the nature and quality of existing social contracts. COVID-19 has laid bare profound vulnerabilities within and across societies. The global pandemic is revealing deep failures in policy visions, institutional fragility, and incapacities of states to harness societal compliance where trust and a sense of national belonging is weak. At the same time, our interdependencies have never been so clear, as all countries, developed and underdeveloped alike, confront similar challenges. Crisis, however, offers opportunity to do things better, to build forward better – strengthening social contracts at all levels. How then, can social contracts, and compacting in times of crisis, offer pathways to address inequality and exclusion? This paper considers how social contracts can offer frameworks to foster new thinking and shape transformative policy to build more inclusive societies. Such frameworks should tie bold new policy visions to robust and resilient institutional arrangements that uproot harmful structural legacies with lasting effect for inclusive and peaceful societies. They must also offer means to address material conditions of inequality, and those related to recognition, identity, and dignity. The cases of South Africa, Tunisia, Colombia, and South Korea reveal that, while not easy nor predictable, such pathways exist. Key findings in this briefing include: Inequality and exclusion stem from policy choices and are fueled by corruption; they undermine foundations of inclusive and resilient national social contracts, e.g. trust in government and societal willingness to consent to difficult policy choices; Participation in formal electoral processes is declining while protest is rising, indicating a lack of faith in existing politics and institutional mechanisms for resolving conflict and fostering consensual politics; and Civil society movements in and across countries are advancing more inclusive social contracts that tackle vulnerability and risk through a variety of innovative means that deserve greater support.
Topic:
Peace, Justice, Social Contract, COVID-19, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Middle East, East Asia, South Africa, and Latin America

30. Reforming U.S. Export Controls to Reflect the Threat Landscape

Author:
Zach Weinberg
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Certain features of U.S. export controls fail to reflect the immediate threat from East Asia and the emerging threat from Europe as it relates to the theft of American defense and dual-use technologies. While both the Obama and Trump administrations made a concerted effort to better regulate the commercial sale and shipment of technologies deemed sensitive for reasons of national security, one critical component of the export controls regime—the U.S. Department of Commerce (USDOC) country-specific export control licensing requirements—has yet to be revised to account for European and East Asian industrial espionage. Imposing the most export licensing requirements on average to countries in Europe and East Asia would accurately account for the persistent attempts to illicitly acquire U.S. defense technologies. Instead, countries in the Near East and South and Central Asia are, on average, assigned the most reasons for control listed on the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Commerce Country Chart (CCC)—likely a carry-on objective from the U.S. Global War on Terror (GWOT) when military operations were heavily focused on these regions. Furthermore, BIS imposes a blanket set of export controls on countries throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, failing to recognize the varying risk profiles posed by different African states. These misallocated export controls demonstrate how specific trade barriers fail to move beyond an outdated GWOT mentality and result in over-regulating the Near East, South and Central Asia, and Africa. The following paper proposes the need for a thorough review of the CCC to ensure that it accurately reflects a country’s current risk profile and takes into consideration the consistent industrial espionage threat from East Asia and the emerging threat from Europe. As a result of this type of export control reform, there would be a relaxation of licensing requirements levied on regions that show little interest in illicitly procuring American defense technologies.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Exports, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Europe, East Asia, North America, and United States of America