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61. The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

Author:
Tarek A. Hassan, Laurence van Lent, Stephan Hollander, and Ahmed Tahoun
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Using tools from computational linguistics, we construct new measures of the impact of Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world: the share of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on costs, benefits, and risks associated with the UK’s intention to leave the EU. Using this approach, we identify which firms expect to gain or lose from Brexit and which are most affected by Brexit uncertainty. We then estimate the effects of these different kinds of Brexit exposure on firm-level outcomes. We find that concerns about Brexit-related uncertainty extend far beyond British or even European firms. US and international firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty have lost a substantial fraction of their market value and have reduced hiring and investment. In addition to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment), we find that international firms overwhelmingly expect negative direct effects of Brexit (the first moment), should it come to pass. Most prominently, firms expect difficulties resulting from regulatory divergence, reduced labor mobility, trade access, and the costs of adjusting their operations post-Brexit. Consistent with the predictions of canonical theory, this negative sentiment is recognized and priced in stock markets but has not yet had significant effects on firm actions.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Brexit, Global Political Economy, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and European Union

62. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Superpowers

Author:
Ed Erickson, Christian H. Heller, T. J. Linzy, Mallory Needleman, Michael Auten, Anthony N. Celso, Keith D. Dickson, Jamie Shea, Ivan Falasca, Steven A. Yeadon, Joshua Tallis, and Ian Klaus
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
There are a variety of reasons to study geopolitical rivalries, and analysts, officers, and politicians are rediscovering such reasons amid the tensions of the last several years. The best reason to study geopolitical rivalries is the simplest: our need to better understand how power works globally. Power not only recurs in human and state affairs but it is also at their very core. Today’s new lexicon—superpower, hyperpower, and great power—is only another reminder of the reality of the various ways that power manifests itself. Power protects and preserves, but a polity without it may be lost within mere decades. Keith D. Dickson’s article in this issue of MCU Journal, “The Challenge of the Sole Superpower in the Postmodern World Order,” illuminates how fuzzy some readers may be in their understanding of this problem; his article on postmodernism calls us to the labor of understanding and reasoning through the hard realities. Ed Erickson’s survey of modern power is replete with cases in which a grand state simply fell, as from a pedestal in a crash upon a stone floor. Modern Japan, always richly talented, rose suddenly as a world actor in the late nineteenth century, but the Japanese Empire fell much more quickly in the mid-twentieth century. A state’s power—or lack thereof—is an unforgiving reality. This issue of MCU Journal, with its focus on rivalries and competition between states, is refreshingly broad in its selection of factors—from competing for or generating power. Dr. Erickson recalls that Alfred Thayer Mahan settled on six conditions for sea power, all still vital. Other authors writing for this issue emphasize, by turns, sea power (Steven Yeadon, Joshua Tallis, and Ian Klaus); cyberpower (Jamie Shea); alliances (T. J. Linzy and Ivan Falasca); information (Dickson); and proxies (Michael Auten, Anthony N. Celso, and others).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Islam, Terrorism, War, History, Power Politics, Military Affairs, European Union, Seapower, Cities, Ottoman Empire, Hybrid Warfare, Cyberspace, Soviet Union, and Safavid Empire
Political Geography:
Britain, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Lithuania, Georgia, North Africa, Syria, North America, and United States of America

63. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Gender Integration and the Military

Author:
Natalia Zalietok, Steven Merritt Miner, Ann Todd, William A. Taylor, María Concepción Márquez Sandoval, Bradford A. Wineman, Rebecca Jensen, and Shlomi Chetrit
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The past century has demonstrated a clear history of crossing lines and breaking down barriers. With each advancement, women were told “no further.” And with each subsequent generation, women pushed the boundaries to do more—until there were no more boundaries. In December 2015, thenSecretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter announced that all military occupational specialties were open to women. Carter declared that “they’ll be allowed to drive tanks, fire mortars and lead infantry soldiers into combat. They’ll be able to serve as Army Rangers and Green Berets, Navy SEALs, Marine Corps infantry, Air Force parajumpers, and everything else that was previously open only to men.”4 The history of women in the Marine Corps offers only one small part of the story. Women across the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) and the world have their own experiences, their own stories to tell. Few know these stories, as the focus usually remains on one’s own Service or country. A gap exists in understanding how other militaries have (or have not) integrated women successfully. This special issue is intended to fill that gap and provide differing perspectives on how other militaries have dealt with gender integration. Every Service and nation has walked its own path toward full integration of women. Some, such as the former Soviet Union and Israel, witnessed tremendous gender integration advances during wartime—World War II and the War for Independence, respectively—only to see those improvements nearly disappear during peace. Others made steady progress, experiencing full integration early on (e.g., Canada in the late 1960s). Still others advanced in some areas but waited decades for others (e.g., Australia integrated submarines in the 1990s but only opened infantry to women a few years ago). The authors here offer a variety of histories describing this journey of integration of women into the armed services of a variety of countries and cultures. From Mexico to Israel as well as the United Kingdom and the former Soviet Union, the diversity of experiences becomes clear. The reasons for integration (or not) are as diverse as the nations’ cultures and offer unique insights into how a nation views women and their contribution to their community and their country, for the integration of women reflects directly on their role in society.
Topic:
Gender Issues, History, Military Affairs, Women, Psychology, and World War II
Political Geography:
Britain, Israel, Soviet Union, Palestine, Latin America, and United States of America

64. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Training and Education in the Military

Author:
Scott Hamm, Rebecca Johnson, Brian S. Christmas, Bruce I. Gudmundsson, Rebecca Hannagan, Iain Farquharson, Tobias Roeder, William A. Taylor, Craig Stone, Timothy McCranor, David Todd, Paolo Tripodi, Lesley McBain, and Gregg Curley
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The current issue of Marine Corps University Journal devotes much of its content to the myriad aspects of educating and training military personnel in articles emphasizing institutional, pedagogical, and historical perspectives. The PME Round Table section looks principally at the efforts of select components within Marine Corps Training and Education Command to enhance the development of Marines through the employment of innovative instructional and career-management techniques. As Sergeant Major Scott Hamm notes in his leadoff essay, the modern battlefield is one typified by dispersed military formations; decision making within this milieu tends not to be performed by officers of high rank—as had been the case in the contests of centuries past—but rather by enlisted leaders. With this reality firmly in mind, MCU’s Enlisted Professional Military Education program seeks to place creative-thinking and critical-reasoning skills within the capable and ready hands of enlisted Marines, promoting such methods as historical case studies and cultural awareness training in conjunction with MCU’s Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning. Following Hamm, Rebecca Johnson discusses the Marine Corps War College curriculum, emphasizing its strategic field study initiatives, national policy wargames, and a rigorous student assessment program requiredto carry out its mission to cultivate the nation’s future senior military leaders. And Colonel Brian S. Christmas, in his round table contribution, focuses on Marine Corps Training Command’s Transformation Enhancement Program, a comprehensive effort performed across 90 schools that seeks to shape Marines through the career-long promotion of five core competencies, extending from values training and resiliency programs to introducing the young Marine to the tenets of maneuver warfare.
Topic:
Cold War, Education, History, Armed Forces, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Britain, Germany, and United States of America

65. European Policy after the Poisoning in Britain: Rhetoric or Action?

Author:
Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
In spite of the impressive international front against Russia following the former spy’s poisoning in Britain, its activity seems to be limited mainly to rhetoric and diplomatic gestures, which will not achieve Russia’s isolation
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Intelligence, and Assassination
Political Geography:
Britain, Russia, and Europe

66. Trump’s Promo?

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The American-British-French strike in Syria should be seen as an exercise in building Western deterrence and creditability in advance of the decision expected next month regarding the nuclear deal with Iran
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, Syria, North America, and United States of America

67. British–Russian Convention and Ottoman Empire in the Context of Polarization Politics

Author:
M. Volkan Atuk
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The British-Russian Convention of 1907 was seen as a joint effort by Britain and Russia to reconcile their areas of influence in Asia but apart from this purpose, it represented the last ring of the emerging tripartite blog that included France against Germany and its allies. The agreement, which mainly came into agenda for partitioning Iran, was handled by the Ottoman Foreign Affairs as a text about Asian affairs. The Ottoman statesmen, who considered only the part of this agreement concerning Afghanistan, Tibet and Iran, couldn’t realize that this was an important part of the polarization politics that pushed world to a general war.
Topic:
Politics, Treaties and Agreements, History, Ottoman Empire, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Britain, Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Iran, Eurasia, and Tibet

68. Global Social Fascism: Violence, Law and Twenty-First Century Plunder

Author:
Lara Montesinos Coleman
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
The intellectual authors of neoliberalism were aware of the lethal implications of what they advocated. For ‘the market’ to work, the state was to refuse protection to those unable to secure their subsistence, while dissidents were to be repressed. What has received less attention is how deadly neoliberal reforms increasing come wrapped in social, legal and humanistic rhetoric. We see this not only in ‘social’ and ‘legal’ rationales for tearing away safety nets in Europe’s former social democratic heartlands, but also in the ‘pro-poor’ emphasis of contemporary development discourse. This includes contexts where colonial legacies have facilitated extreme armed violence in service of corporate plunder. To expose these dynamics, I juxtapose the everyday violence of austerity in Britain with neoliberal restructuring in Colombia. The latter is instructive precisely because, in tandem with widespread state-backed terror, Colombia has held fast to the language and institutions of liberal democracy. It has, as a result, prefigured the subtle authoritarian tendencies now increasingly prominent in European states. The reconceptualization of law, rights and social policy that has accompanied neoliberal globalization is deeply fascistic. Authoritarian state power is harnessed to the power of transnational capital, often accompanied by nationalistic and racist ideologies that legitimize refusal of protection and repression, enabling spiraling inequality. Nevertheless, extending Boaventura de Sousa Santos’s discussion of ‘social fascism’, I suggest that widespread appeal to the ‘social’ benefits and ‘legal necessity’ of lethal economic policies marks a significant and Orwellian shift. Not only are democratic forces suppressed: the very meanings of democracy, rights, law and ethics are being reshaped, drastically inhibiting means of challenging corporate power.
Topic:
Human Rights, Social Stratification, Law, Fascism, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:
Britain and Colombia

69. Finding the good in EVEL: An evaluation of ‘English Votes for English Laws’ in the House of Commons

Author:
Daniel Gover and Michael Kenny
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Recent political developments have focused attention on the ‘English Question’. In response to the 2014 Scottish referendum result, the UK government initiated a procedural reform in the House of Commons known as ‘English Votes for English Laws’ (EVEL), which was formally adopted in October 2015. This report results from an in-depth academic research project into EVEL. It evaluates how the procedures fared during their first year in operation, and weighs arguments for and against such a reform. Based on this analysis, it makes a series of constructive proposals to improve the current system.
Topic:
Politics, Law, Elections, Democracy, Identities, and Voting
Political Geography:
Britain and United Kingdom

70. Britain’s party members: who they are, what they think, and what they do

Author:
Tim Bale, Paul Webb, and Polettim Monica
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Labour’s membership also comes nearer to gender parity than the other three parties’. Getting on for two-thirds of Lib Dems, and not far off three-quarters of Tory members are men. And, while it’s true to say that all four parties are disproportionately middle-class, it’s even more true of Tory and Lib Dem members, nearly nine out of ten of whom can be classified as ABC1.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Domestic Politics, Identities, and Voting
Political Geography:
Britain and United Kingdom

71. The Clarity Incentive for Issue Engagement in Campaigns

Author:
Chitralekha Basu and Matthew Knowles
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Although parties focus disproportionately on favourable issues in their election campaigns, it is also the case that parties spend much of the ‘short campaign’ addressing the same issues – and especially salient issues. This is surprising from the perspective of the theoretical literature, which has focused on parties’ incentives to campaign on ‘owned issues’ in order to increase the importance voters attach to these issues. We explain this behaviour by proposing that parties face an additional incentive to emphasise issues that are salient to voters: the need to clarify their positions on these issues for sympathetic voters. Leveraging the surprise election victory of the British Conservative Party in 2015—which prompted a hitherto unexpected referendum on EU membership—we show that, consistent with this hypothesis, voter uncertainty is especially costly for parties on salient issues. We formalise this argument using a model of party strategy with endogenous issue salience.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, and Global Focus

72. Issues & Insights Vol. 17 - No. 1 - 4th US/UK-Myanmar Nonproliferation Dialogue

Author:
Carl W Baker and Federica Dall’ Arche
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
There have been remarkable transformations in UK/US-Myanmar relations over the past few years with the signing of trade agreements, lifting of sanctions, and investments. Nevertheless, some issues such as the government’s alleged violations of the human rights of minority ethnic groups have prevented better relations. There is currently a fairly wide gap in perceptions regarding the issue of human rights violations in the Rakine State. While some outsiders accuse the government of genocide or ethnic cleansing, the Myanmar government has consistently portrayed its actions as justified based on the need for counterterrorism measures against international terrorists. An open dialogue over these
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, International Security, International Affairs, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Britain, America, and Myanmar

73. Making the 'Special Relationship' Great Again?

Author:
Tim Oliver and Michael Williams
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Even before Donald Trump won the US presidential election he left an indelible mark on US politics and on views of the US in Britain and around the world. his victory means those views will now have to be turned into policy towards a president many in Britain feel uneasy about. Current attitudes to Trump can be as contradictory and fast changing as the president-elect’s own political positions. They can be a mix of selective praise and horror. he has in the past been criticised by British political leaders from the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson to the Mayor of london Sadiq khan. In early 2016 a petition of over half a million signatures led Parliament to debate (and reject) banning Trump from entering the Uk. Yet he has also drawn the support of politicians such as UKIP leader Nigel Farage, and polling showed support amongst the British public for his 2015 proposal to ban Muslims from entering the US. After the presidential election British ministers were quick to extend an olive branch. Johnson himself refused to attend a hastily convened EU meeting to discuss Trump’s election. Instead he called on the rest of the EU to end its collective ‘whinge-o-rama’.
Topic:
International Relations, Political stability, Post Truth Politics, and Populism
Political Geography:
Britain and America

74. Brexit and the European financial system

Author:
Uuriintuya Batsaikhan, Robert Kalcik, and Dirk Schoenmaker
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
London is an international financial centre, serving European and global clients. A hard Brexit would lead to a partial migration of financial firms from London to the EU27 (EU minus UK) to ensure they can continue to serve their EU27 clients. Four major cities will host most of the new EU27 wholesale markets: Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and Amsterdam. These cities have far fewer people employed in finance than London. Moreover, they host the European headquarters of fewer large companies. The partial migra- tion of financial firms will thus have a major impact on these cities and their infrastructures. Banks are the key players in wholesale markets. United States and Swiss investment banks, together with one large German and three large French banks, will make up the core of the new EU27 wholesale markets. Some Dutch, Italian and Spanish banks are in the second tier. The forex, securities and derivatives trading markets are now in London. We map the current, limited market share of the four major cities that might host the EU27 client business. The expected migration of financial trading will lead to a large increase in trading capacity (eg bank trading floors). Clearing is the backbone of modern financial markets. A comparative overview of clearing facilities in the EU27 shows that Germany and France have some clearing capacity, but this will need to be expanded. The ownership of clearing is often intertwined with stock exchanges. Were the planned LSE-Deutsche Börse merger to go ahead, LSE would sell the Paris subsidiary of its clearinghouse. In terms of legal systems, there is an expectation that trading activities will be able to continue under English contract law, also in the EU27. A particular challenge is to develop FinTech (financial technology) in the EU27, as this innovative part of the market is currently based in London. We estimate that some 30,000 jobs might move from London to the EU27. This will put pressure on the facilities (infrastructure, offices, residential housing) in the recipient cities. The more the European Union market for financial services is integrated, the less need there will be for financial firms to move to one location, reducing the pressure for all facilities to be in one city (see Sapir et al, 2017, which is a companion piece to this paper).
Topic:
International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

75. Making the best of Brexit for the EU27 financial system

Author:
Andre Sapir, Dirk Schoenmaker, and Nicolas Veron
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union creates an opportunity for the remaining EU27 to accelerate the development of its financial markets and to increase its resilience against shocks. Equally, Brexit involves risks for market integrity and stability, because the EU including the UK has been crucially dependent on the Bank of England and the UK Financial Conduct Authority for oversight of its wholesale markets. Without the UK, the EU27 must swiftly upgrade its capacity to ensure market integrity and financial stability. Furthermore, losing even partial access to the efficient London financial centre could entail a loss of efficiency for the EU27 economy, especially if financial developments inside the EU27 remain limited and uneven.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Political stability, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

76. The US’ special relationships in Europe

Author:
Mikkel Runge Olesen and Matthew Hinds
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The election of Donald Trump as US president was met with considerable unease in Europe. This has not least been the case among those who, like the UK and Denmark, consider themselves among America’s closest allies. In the policy brief, Matthew Hinds and Mikkel Runge Olesen take stock of the US special relationships in Europe – large and small. In the policy brief they discuss both the classical “Special Relationship” between the US and the UK, as well as the US-Danish relationship, as an example of a small power that has chosen to give the relationship to the superpower premium priority. Hinds and Runge Olesen find that Trump may destabilize relations, but also that he may open up for new opportunities as well – especially for the UK.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Britain, America, and Europe

77. Faulty Towers Understanding the impact of overseas corruption on the London property market

Author:
Transparency International
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Transparency International
Abstract:
“Faulty Towers: Understanding the impact of overseas corruption on the London property market” assessed 14 new landmark London developments, worth at least £1.6 billion. It found 4 in 10 of the homes in these developments have been sold to investors from high corruption risk countries or those hiding behind anonymous companies. Less than a quarter had been bought by buyers based in the UK.
Topic:
Corruption and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Britain

78. Managing Conflicts of Interest in the NHS: A Consultation SUBMISSION FROM TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL UK’S PHARMACEUTICALS & HEALTHCARE PROGRAMME

Author:
Transparency International
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Transparency International
Abstract:
In this submission, Transparency International UK’s Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Programme provides a response to NHS England’s Managing Conflicts of Interest in the NHS: A Consultation. The UK spends 9.9% of GDP on public and private healthcare, with private expenditure only accounting for 1.5%.1 The NHS England annual budget alone is set to rise to £120 billion with the vast majority being spent on equipment and services.2 The complex nature of the health system, a lack of adequate oversight and this level of resources makes the health sector highly vulnerable to conflicts of interest. Improving the transparency of interactions between NHS staff and other individuals and organisations, and minimising the variation in conflicts of interest rules across the NHS, is vital to fighting corruption.
Topic:
Health and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Britain

79. What’s next after Theresa May’s spectacular own goal?

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This was meant to be a Brexit election to strengthen the Prime Minister’s hand. The result was precisely the opposite. Her management of the Brexit process has become a long sequence of own goals: quit the customs union and single market; watch EU agencies relocate to the continent, including importantly for medicines and banking; banking jobs begin to relocate; science, research and academia see their interests harmed; the budget settlement prospect becomes a big new negative; the Irish border question threatens; immigration from the EU is already declining and various sectors from fruit-picking to the national health service are at risk. Moreover, the UK’s economic growth has slowed down and is now forecast to drop to 1% in 2018; the pound has lost 13% since the referendum; inflation is up; and consumer spending is down. The only solace available to Mrs May is that the Scots seem to be having second thoughts about independence. But this election was her biggest own goal yet. The credibility of her Brexit negotiation method is shattered. She thought the British people could be satisfied with slogans about “Brexit means Brexit”, or “getting the best deal for Britain”, and the now notorious “no deal is better than a bad deal”. Above all there was the failure to define and communicate a credible negotiation strategy. The Brexit White Paper of February 2017 contained serious contradictions, insisting that the UK should get ‘seamless’ market access while still leaving the customs union and the single market.
Topic:
International Affairs, Political stability, Europe Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain

80. What Post-WWII Schoolchildren Learned about the World

Author:
Susan Douglass
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
A look at the role of textbooks in shaping worldviews, global literacy, and national pride. The middle of the twentieth century was a watershed period in history for many reasons, with one of the most significant being the rise of mass education systems across the world. As Britain shed its colonies, newly independent countries with influential leaders launched efforts to educate their masses—efforts that had been held back under colonial rule. India and Egypt, under Nehru and Abdel Nasser respectively, began using government schools to strive for social integration and mold their citizens’ worldviews to enlist them in national economic development and modernization. Britain, too, launched a much-needed expansion of its secondary education system and revamped its elementary schools to meet the demands of the postwar baby boom.
Topic:
Education, Nationalism, History, and Children
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, India, and Egypt