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1. Britain, Germany, and the Rise of Competitive Virtue Signaling

Author:
Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
In 2016, British and German officials were clear: they wanted quickly to put Brexit behind them and cooperate on big ticket items like the international rule of law. Now, in 2022, the pair in fact seem to be competing more than they cooperate. Germany wants to shine in comparison with Britain, and the UK sees advantages for its own standing if Germany falls short. This “competitive virtue signaling” defines Germany and the UK’s post-Brexit rivalry, and – oddly – might lead to tighter relations.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Rivalry, Cooperation, and Competition
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, and Germany

2. Labor Market Impact of Immigration in the European Union

Author:
Dong-Hee Joe
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Immigration is one of the factors often considered as the causes of Brexit. Researchers find evidences that regions with more immigrants from the new member states of the European Union (EU hereinafter) in eastern Europe tended to vote more in favor of Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Similar relations between the size of immigrant population and anti-immigration attitudes or far-right voting are found in other richer EU member states. A common explanation for this relation is the concern that immigrants negatively affect the outcome in the host labor market. Immigration is drawing attention in Korea too. Although immigrants' share in population is still substantially smaller in Korea than in the EU, its increase is noticeable. Also, certain industries in Korea are known to be already heavily reliant on immigrant labor. Recently, as entry into the country was tightened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, firms and farms are reported to have faced a disruption in production. This trend of increasing presence of immigrants in population and in the labor market, vis-à-vis the low fertility rate and rapid aging in Korea, is raising interest and concern on the socioeconomic impact of immigration. To offer some reference for the debates related to immigration in Korea, KIEP researchers (Joe et al. 2020 and Joe and Moon 2021) look at the EU, where immigrants' presence was much higher from much earlier on, and where the greater heterogeneity among the immigrants allows for richer analyses. This World Economy Brief presents some of their findings that are salient for Korea.
Topic:
Immigration, European Union, Brexit, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, Asia, and Korea

3. Gauging the Gravity of the Situation: The Use and Abuse of Expertise in Estimating the Economic Costs of Brexit

Author:
Christoph Semken and Colin Hay
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
HM Treasury’s estimation of the economic consequences of Brexit – using standard macroeconomic models – during the EU referendum campaign represents a remarkable intervention in a highly politicized public debate. It raises a series of questions about the use of economic expertise. Through a detailed theoretical and empirical critique of the Treasury’s methodology – and a reassessment of the likely effects of Brexit in light of this – we cast doubt on the utility of their approach, highlighting methodological issues, unrealistic assumptions, and misrepresentations of established facts. In the process we seek to identify some of the wider implications for the use and potential abuse of economic expertise in highly charged political contexts, such as the EU referendum debate.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Methodology
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

4. The implications of a no-deal Brexit for the EU

Author:
Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
As the end of the transition period nears, the EU must prepare for a fundamentally different and more conflictual relationship with the UK. Whatever the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, there will be profound economic, political and geopolitical implications for the EU. While the EU as a whole might be better placed than the UK to absorb the economic shock of a no-deal, the fallout within the EU will be uneven, resulting in winners and losers. The asymmetrical impact and differential capacity and willingness of national governments to mitigate the shock could exacerbate regional disparities and unbalance the EU’s internal level playing field. As such, it might become more difficult to maintain the same level of EU unity post-no-deal.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

5. Brexit and the British in Spain

Author:
Karen O'Reilly
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This report is based on findings from the BrExpats research project, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council through UK in a Changing Europe Initiative (Grant Number ES/R000875/1). This was a longitudinal study of Brexit and its implications for UK nationals living in other European Union member states. From May 2017 until January 2020, the project team tracked the Brexit negotiations and what they mean for the political rights, social and financial entitlements, identity, citizenship and belonging of Britons living in the EU-27. In particular, the project team documented how the protracted uncertainties about what Brexit means for citizens’ rights—the rights and entitlements derived from exercising Freedom of Movement—were experienced by UK nationals living across the EU-27, and with what consequences for their ongoing emotional and practical choices.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Negotiation, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Spain

6. Brexit and the British in France

Author:
Michaela Benson
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This report is based on findings from the BrExpats research project, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council through the UK in a Changing Europe Initiative. This was a longitudinal study of Brexit and its implications for UK nationals living in other European Union member states. From May 2017 until January 2020, the project team tracked the Brexit negotiations and what they mean for the political rights, social and financial entitlements, identity, citizenship and belonging of Britons living in the EU-27. In particular, the project team documented how the protracted uncertainties about what Brexit means for citizens’ rights—the rights and entitlements derived from exercising Freedom of Movement—were experienced by UK nationals living across the EU-27, and with what consequences for their ongoing emotional and practical choices.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, and Freedom of Movement
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, and France

7. Britain’s Reckoning with the Future

Author:
Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Brexit talks have entered extra time. If the UK is to leave the EU in an orderly manner, it needs a deal in the next four weeks. The trouble is that, as the prospect of leaving becomes more concrete, the government has finally recognized that it needs to honor the promises it has made to voters. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is struggling to reconcile his vague pledges with real world constraints – both internationally and domestically.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Brexit, Negotiation, and Boris Johnson
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

8. The EU should prepare for all UK post-election scenarios

Author:
Larissa Brunner
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
With the UK elections imminent, Larissa Brunner lays out three different scenarios depending on the outcome. None offer any reason for the EU to be optimistic. If the Conservatives win, the Withdrawal Agreement will probably be passed, providing short-term predictability and certainty. But any long-term deal will probably be much worse than the status quo. A Labour victory would mean the opposite: further short-term uncertainty until the new government has renegotiated another Brexit deal and held a second referendum, but a possible closer relationship in the long run (assuming the Leave vote is confirmed). A hung Parliament would combine the worst of both worlds. And then there’s the Scottish question. Regardless of whether the new government needs SNP support or not, the political pressure on London to endorse a second independence vote is likely to increase. The EU should, therefore, not take its eye off the ball and use the current respite in the Brexit process to prepare itself for all of the possible post-election scenarios.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

9. Prospects for a closer relationship with Indonesia after Brexit

Author:
Jacqueline Hicks
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
Abstract:
As the United Kingdom considers post-Brexit trade opportunities outside the European Union, this briefing looks at the potential for greater cooperation with Indonesia. It finds that there are some sectoral and trade and investment opportunities between the two countries. Developing a long-term strategy that signals commitment is key to participation in Indonesia’s promising growth trajectory. The UK can mitigate its reduced bargaining power outside the EU by providing targeted, practical trade facilitation measures in exchange for increased investment opportunities. Becoming an agile and dynamic economic partner in comparison with the EU’s bureaucratic approach chimes well with the small business background of Indonesia’s President Widodo.
Topic:
International Cooperation, European Union, Economic Growth, Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Indonesia, and Asia

10. Brexit: the manifestos uncovered

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This is, according to several of the parties and at least one national broadcaster, a Brexit election. Assuming this is wholly – or even partially (as even Labour accept in their manifesto) – true, what the parties are saying about Brexit is therefore of crucial importance. This report represents our attempt to identify what they say, to compare the different pledges the parties make and to explain in straightforward terms what each of them is offering on Brexit. Our aim, simply stated, is to promote understanding so people can make up their own minds. Once again, we have been fortunate enough to be able to draw on the expertise of some of the country’s leading social scientists. Catherine Barnard, Matt Bevington, Charlotte Burns, Katy Hayward, Nicola McEwen, Jonathan Portes, Jill Rutter and Dan Wincott all contributed to this report. Alan Wager and John-Paul Salter edited the text. We hope you find what follows enlightening and informative. Election campaigns produce endless amounts of heat. We have attempted in what follows to shed at least a little light.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Society
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

11. Naturalisation and (dis)integration for Euro families in Brexiting Britain

Author:
Nando Sigona
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The share of applications for naturalization by EU27 residents in the UK has increased from 5% in 2007 to 26% in 2017. More than 80,000 EU residents have applied for naturalization since the EU referendum. Many more are still uncertain on their legal status and ponder their options. Attitudes towards naturalization vary significantly among EU nationals, with more well off and educated EU nationals and EU14 citizens displaying more resistance to apply to become British on moral and political grounds. Others, instead, take a more pragmatic approach to acquiring a British passport.
Topic:
European Union, Naturalization, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain and Europe

12. High Hopes, Long Odds: On the False Promises of Brexiteer Deals with the EU and US

Author:
John Ryan, Gabriel Felbermayr, Clemens Fuest, Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, and Daniel Stöhlker
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This report explores a No-Deal Brexit which would leave the UK economically, politically and diplomatically weakened and isolated. It further examines the relationships with its two main allies - the European Union and the United States - which would become more difficult and complicated.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, and United States of America