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12. The EU should prepare for all UK post-election scenarios
- Author:
- Larissa Brunner
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- With the UK elections imminent, Larissa Brunner lays out three different scenarios depending on the outcome. None offer any reason for the EU to be optimistic. If the Conservatives win, the Withdrawal Agreement will probably be passed, providing short-term predictability and certainty. But any long-term deal will probably be much worse than the status quo. A Labour victory would mean the opposite: further short-term uncertainty until the new government has renegotiated another Brexit deal and held a second referendum, but a possible closer relationship in the long run (assuming the Leave vote is confirmed). A hung Parliament would combine the worst of both worlds. And then there’s the Scottish question. Regardless of whether the new government needs SNP support or not, the political pressure on London to endorse a second independence vote is likely to increase. The EU should, therefore, not take its eye off the ball and use the current respite in the Brexit process to prepare itself for all of the possible post-election scenarios.
- Topic:
- Elections, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland
13. The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty
- Author:
- Tarek A. Hassan, Laurence van Lent, Stephan Hollander, and Ahmed Tahoun
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- Using tools from computational linguistics, we construct new measures of the impact of Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world: the share of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on costs, benefits, and risks associated with the UK’s intention to leave the EU. Using this approach, we identify which firms expect to gain or lose from Brexit and which are most affected by Brexit uncertainty. We then estimate the effects of these different kinds of Brexit exposure on firm-level outcomes. We find that concerns about Brexit-related uncertainty extend far beyond British or even European firms. US and international firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty have lost a substantial fraction of their market value and have reduced hiring and investment. In addition to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment), we find that international firms overwhelmingly expect negative direct effects of Brexit (the first moment), should it come to pass. Most prominently, firms expect difficulties resulting from regulatory divergence, reduced labor mobility, trade access, and the costs of adjusting their operations post-Brexit. Consistent with the predictions of canonical theory, this negative sentiment is recognized and priced in stock markets but has not yet had significant effects on firm actions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Brexit, Global Political Economy, and Economic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and European Union
14. Brexit: Everyone Loses, but Britain Loses the Most
- Author:
- Maria C. Latorre, Zoryana Olekseyuk, Hidemichi Yonezawa, and Sherman Robinson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper examines 12 economic simulation models that estimate the impact of Brexit (Britain’s exit from the European Union). Most of the studies find adverse effects for the United Kingdom (UK) and the EU-27. The UK’s GDP losses from a hard Brexit (reversion to World Trade Organization rules due to a lack of UK-EU agreement) range from –1.2 to –4.5 percent in most of the models analyzed. A soft Brexit (e.g., Norway arrangement, which seems in line with the nonbinding text of the political declaration of November 14, 2018, on the future EU-UK relationship) has about half the negative impact of a hard Brexit. Only two of the models derive gains for the UK after Brexit because they are based on unrealistic assumptions. The authors analyze more deeply a computable general equilibrium model that includes productivity and firm selection effects within manufacturing sectors and operations of foreign multinationals in services. Based on this latest model, they explain the likely economic impact of Brexit on a wide range of macroeconomic variables, namely GDP, wages, private consumption, capital remuneration, aggregate exports, aggregate imports, and the consumer price index.
- Topic:
- Economics, World Trade Organization, Brexit, and Multinational Corporations
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Europe, and European Union
15. How can the NHS recruit and retain migrant nurses after Brexit?
- Author:
- Georgia Spiliopoulos and Stephen Timmons
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- Non-British nurses working for the National Health Service (NHS) face a number of challenges, which must be addressed in the context of ongoing Brexit negotiations. Since the 2016 Referendum result to leave the European Union (EU), the number of EU nurses registering with the Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC) plummeted in 2017 by 96% – from 1,304 EU nurses registering with the NMC in July 2016 to just 46 in April 2017 (Siddique, 2017). This drop in numbers is also linked with the number of EU nurses leaving the UK (Matthews-King, 2017). A recent NMC report (2019) published a 1% increase, for the first time in three years, in the number of new nurse registrants, for the period between April 2018 and March 2019. This increase translates into 6,000 nurses from the UK, EU and overseas. These numbers, while encouraging, reflect the changes in international recruitment from EU and non-EU countries, and importantly the impact of Brexit on the retention of both EU and non-EU nurses. This paper recommends measures to support the retention of these nurses.
- Topic:
- Health, Health Care Policy, Brexit, and Public Health
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United Kingdom, and Asia
16. How can the NHS recruit and retain migrant nurses after Brexit?: Background Report
- Author:
- Georgia Spiliopoulos and Stephen Timmons
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- The UK Referendum decision to leave the European Union in June 2016 exacerbated some of the long-standing challenges the National Health Service (NHS) has been facing in recruiting and retaining nursing staff. In 2018, it was estimated that one in eight posts was vacant, which translates into 36,000 nursing vacancies (King’s Fund, 2018). Arguably, these challenges have been present since the founding of the NHS in 1948. Pre-established initiatives recruiting overseas nurses to deal with acute staffing shortages during the war effort, mainly from the Commonwealth, were also adopted by the NHS. Hence, the Nurses’ Act of 1949 relaxed the criteria for the registration of overseas nurses set up by the General Nursing Council (Solano and Rafferty, 2007). Therefore, we can trace historical developments in recruiting non-UK nurses, which reflect changing state regulations over time, connected to particular political and financial factors, xenophobic rhetoric and also problems in retaining British nursing staff (Bach, 2007; Ball, 2004; Cangiano et al, 2009; Simpkin and Mossialos, 2017; Solano and Rafferty, 2007). In the 1950s, for example, significant numbers of overseas nurses entered the UK as trainees, while an even higher number of British nurses emigrated abroad, fuelling concerns over training of overseas nurses but also bringing to the forefront anxieties over race (Solano and Rafferty, 2007). An illustrative example of political will influencing recruitment of overseas nurses was seen in New Labour’s push for a ‘modernization agenda’ in the late 1990s and subsequently, a push for international recruitment (Deeming, 2004). However, aggressive recruitment initiatives targeting nursing staff from developing countries such as Zimbabwe, Kenya and Zambia, led to the introduction of the NHS ‘Code of Practice’ on ethical recruitment in 2001 (Deeming, 2004), with calls for overseas recruitment to focus mainly on pre-existing agreements with countries such as the Philippines and India (Buchan, 2006).
- Topic:
- Health, Health Care Policy, Brexit, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United Kingdom, and Asia
17. The risk to biodiversity along China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Author:
- Alex Lechner, Hoong Chen Teo, and Ahimsa Campos-Arceiz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) poses a great risk to biodiversity, particularly as many of the infrastructure projects are due to take place in regions that are home to threatened and endangered species found nowhere else in the world. This policy brief makes recommendations for the UK government to develop a BRI Biodiversity Strategy.
- Topic:
- Environment, Brexit, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Ecology
- Political Geography:
- Britain and China
18. The role of Chinese finance in the City of London after Brexit
- Author:
- Sarah Hall
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- London is the largest western financial centre for financial transactions denominated in Renminbi (RMB) and has played an important role in shaping the rapid and recent internationalisation of Chinese finance. This policy brief discusses how to maintain this leading role post-Brexit.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, Finance, Brexit, and Financial Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Britain, China, and United Kingdom
19. The United Kingdom's Belt and Road Initiative strategy after Brexit
- Author:
- Benjamin Barton
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- As China’s President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy programme, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become one of the world’s most active infrastructure development drivers. The BRI is helping to meet the increasing demand for infrastructure development in emerging markets across the world. This policy is unlikely to change due to the importance that the Chinese government attributes to the BRI, with it now being formally enshrined into the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) constitution. For the UK, the BRI stakes are high; it matters both domestically and internationally. It is impacting the wellbeing of countries that are of strategic importance to the UK. It also contributes to the emerging geopolitical rivalry on infrastructure financing. The government should explore bilateral and multilateral venues to seek to cooperate with China on the BRI by developing a UK BRI strategy post-Brexit.
- Topic:
- Development, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Brexit, Multilateralism, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Britain, China, United Kingdom, and Asia
20. Brexit: the manifestos uncovered
- Author:
- Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- This is, according to several of the parties and at least one national broadcaster, a Brexit election. Assuming this is wholly – or even partially (as even Labour accept in their manifesto) – true, what the parties are saying about Brexit is therefore of crucial importance. This report represents our attempt to identify what they say, to compare the different pledges the parties make and to explain in straightforward terms what each of them is offering on Brexit. Our aim, simply stated, is to promote understanding so people can make up their own minds. Once again, we have been fortunate enough to be able to draw on the expertise of some of the country’s leading social scientists. Catherine Barnard, Matt Bevington, Charlotte Burns, Katy Hayward, Nicola McEwen, Jonathan Portes, Jill Rutter and Dan Wincott all contributed to this report. Alan Wager and John-Paul Salter edited the text. We hope you find what follows enlightening and informative. Election campaigns produce endless amounts of heat. We have attempted in what follows to shed at least a little light.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe
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