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552. One Foot in the Region; Eyes on the Global Prize
- Author:
- Matias Spektor
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- Read any Brazilian foreign policy college textbook and you will be surprised. Global order since 1945 is not described as open, inclusive or rooted in multilateralism. Instead, you learn that big powers impose their will on the weak through force and rules that are strict and often arbitrary. In this world view, international institutions bend over backwards to please their most powerful masters. International law, when it is used by the strong, is less about binding great powers and self-restraint than about strong players controlling weaker ones. After finishing the book, you couldn't be blamed for believing that the liberal international order has never established the just, level playing field for world politics that its supporters claim. This intellectual approach is responsible for the ambiguity at the heart of Brazilian strategic thinking. On one hand, Brazil has benefited enormously from existing patterns of global order. It was transformed from a modest rural economy in the 1940s into an industrial powerhouse less than 50 years later, thanks to the twin forces of capitalism and an alliance system that kept it safe. On the other hand, the world has been a nasty place for Brazil. Today, it is one of the most unequal societies in the world. Millions still live in poverty and violence abounds. In 2009, there were more violent civilian deaths in the state of Rio de Janeiro alone than in the whole of Iraq. No doubt a fair share of the blame belongs to successive generations of Brazilian politicians and policymakers. But some of it is a function of the many inequities and distortions that recur when you are on the “periphery” of a very unequal international system. The result is a view of global order that vastly differs from perceptions held by the United States. Take, for instance, Brazilian perceptions of “international threats.” Polls show that the average Brazilian worries little about terrorism, radical Islam or a major international war. Instead, the primary fears concern climate change, poverty and infectious disease. Many Brazilians, in fact, fear the U.S., focusing in particular on the perceived threat it poses to the natural riches of the Amazon and the newfound oil fields under the Brazilian seabed. Perceptions matter enormously. It is no wonder that the Brazilian military spends a chunk of its time studying how Vietnamese guerrillas won a war against far superior forces in jungle battlefields. Nor should it be a surprise that Brazil is now investing heavily in the development of nuclear-propulsion submarines that its admirals think will facilitate the nation's ability to defend oil wells in open waters. But Brazil is nowhere near being a revolutionary state. While its leaders believe that a major transition of global power is currently underway, they want to be seen as smooth operators when new rules to the game emerge. Their designs are moderate because they have a stake in preserving the principles that underwrite Brazil's emergence as a major world player. They will not seek to radically overturn existing norms and practices but to adapt them to suit their own interests instead. Could Brazilian intentions change over time? No doubt. Notions of what constitutes the national interest will transform as the country rises. Brazil's international ambitions are likely to expand—no matter who runs the country. Three factors will shape the way national goals will evolve in the next few years: the relationship with the U.S., Brasilia's strategies for dealing with the rest of South America, and Brazil's ideas about how to produce global order. When it Comes to the U.S., Lie Low Brazilian officials are used to repeating that to be on the U.S. “radar screen” is not good. In their eyes, being the source of American attention poses two possible threats. It either raises expectations in Washington that Brazil will work as a “responsible stakeholder” according to some arbitrary criteria of what “responsible” means, or it turns Brazil into a target of U.S. pressure when interests don't coincide. As a result, there is a consensus among Brazilians that a policy of “ducking”—hiding your head underwater when the hegemonic eagle is around—has served them well. Whether this judgment is correct or not is for historians to explore. But the utility of a policy based on such a consensus is declining fast. You cannot flex your diplomatic muscle abroad and hope to go unnoticed. Furthermore, being a “rising state” is never a mere function of concrete things, such as a growing economy, skilled armies, mighty industries, a booming middle class, or a functional state that is effective in tax collection and the provision of public goods. The perception of other states matters just as much. And nobody's perception matters more than that of the most powerful state of all: the United States. Brazil's current rise is therefore deeply intertwined with the perception in Washington that Brazil is moving upwards in global hierarchies. Securing the acceptance or the implicit support of the U.S. while maintaining some distance will always be a fragile position to maintain. But as Brazil grows more powerful, it will be difficult to accomplish its global objectives without the complicity—and the tacit acceptance—of the United States. For Brazil this means that the “off the radar” option will become increasingly difficult. Not the Natural Regional Leader Brazil accounts for over 50 percent of South America's wealth, people and territory. If power were a product of relative material capabilities alone, Brazil would be more powerful in its own region than China, India, Turkey or South Africa are in theirs. But Brazil is not your typical regional power. It has sponsored layers of formal institutions and regional norms, but its leaders recoil at the thought of pooling sovereignty into supranational bodies. Yes, Brazil has modernized South American politics by promoting norms to protect democracy and to establish a regional zone of peace, but its efforts at promoting a regional sense of shared purposes have been mixed and, some say, halfhearted at best. Brazilian public opinion and private-sector business increasingly doubt the benefits of deep regional integration with neighbors, and plans for a South American Free Trade Zone have gone asunder. And yes, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), from 1998 to 2007, Brazil spent far more on its armed forces than Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Venezuela combined. Yet, Brazil's ability to project military power abroad remains minimal. The end result is that many challenge the notion that Brazil is a regional leader. From the perspective of smaller neighboring countries, it remains a country that is too hard to follow sometimes. If you are sitting on its borders, as 10 South American nations do, you find it difficult to jump on its bandwagon. This is problematic for Brazil. As a major and growing regional creditor, investor, consumer, and exporter, its own economic fate is interconnected with that of its neighbors. Crises abroad impact its banks and companies at home as never before. Populism, ethnic nationalism, narcotics trafficking, guerrilla warfare, deforestation, unlawful pasturing, economic decay, and political upheaval in neighbors will deeply harm Brazilian interests. Whether, when and how Brazil will develop the policy instruments to shape a regional order beneficial to itself remains to be seen. But curiously enough, Brazilian leaders do not normally think their interests in South America might converge with those of the United States. On the contrary, Brazil in the twenty-first century has geared its regional policies to deflect, hedge, bind, and restrain U.S. power in South America to the extent that it can. This is not to say that Brazil is a stubborn challenger of U.S. interests in the region. That would be silly for a country whose success depends on the perception of economic gain and regional stability. But it means that future generations of Brazilians might discover that if they want to unlock some of the most pressing problems in the region, perhaps they will have to reconsider their attitude towards the United States...
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Law, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Washington, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, South America, Venezuela, and Chile
553. The Opportunities and Challenges for President Dilma Rousseff
- Author:
- Roberto Setubal
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- Gradually and firmly over the past 15 years, Brazil has consolidated a stable democracy, broken free from macroeconomic instability, and taken remarkable steps toward alleviating poverty and reducing a historically high level of income inequality. The country that welcomed Dilma Rousseff as its new president on January 1 is also the country that will host the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics. Ms. Rousseff has a chance to push Brazil further along the road to development. To get there, she must maintain the achievements of the past and persevere in making the changes that Brazil needs. The opportunities are big—so are the challenges. Brazil's political, economic and social advances have paved the way for the development of a large consumer market. This puts the country in a position to benefit from today's global marketplace. Consumer spending in advanced economies is flattening out. At the same time, with their large potential consumer markets, emerging markets are becoming “consumers of last resort,” attracting an increasing share of global resources. Brazil is one of them. A new, larger middle class is now emerging. From 2003 to 2009, about 35.7 million people joined Brazil's middle-class income bracket. By 2014, Brazilian economists and business leaders estimate that another 30 million will have made that move. This development will have far-reaching implications for businesses, but also for society as a whole. Investment is very likely to rise in the years ahead. New projects now follow the expected consumer patterns of this new middle class. Investment is spurred by macroeconomic stability and other developments that have increased confidence and enabled a slow but steady decline in real interest rates. This has lowered the cost of capital and stimulated credit and capital markets. Investments will also increase for more specific reasons. First, the new deepwater oil fields will require vast financial resources and new technology, allowing Brazil's oil production to double by 2020. Second, pent-up demand for housing will be a catalyst for investment, since a significant number of Brazilians still live in sub-standard homes. Third, the World Cup and Olympics will require investments on a considerable scale. Preparing for these large sports events will benefit diverse sectors of the economy, through spending on ports and airports, urban transportation, sports facilities, hotels, telecommunications, energy, and security. Tourism is likely to benefit during the games, and also afterward. Nevertheless, with public and private domestic savings at their current low levels, Brazil will need to continue tapping external savings to finance growth. That means a larger current-account deficit and an exchange rate appreciated by capital inflows. Brazil will have to make the most of its available resources. It will be essential to create an environment that is conducive to private sector saving and investment. Ensuring stable macroeconomic conditions is critical. Remaining market-friendly in a well-regulated environment is also crucial for healthy and abundant financing. A well-established institutional design for regulatory agencies, which instills the necessary confidence that the private sector can undertake major, long-term projects, is indispensable. A great deal can be achieved through small but focused changes, instead of ambitious but often unrealistic regulatory agendas. The advance in credit regulation in Brazil is one such example. Developing a deeper market for private, fixed-income securities is important, but there needs to be a liquid secondary market, so that families have more confidence in extending the maturities on their investments. Just as we have such a market for equities, we can have one for fixed-income securities...
- Topic:
- Security and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
554. Puncturing the 4 Myths about Latin America
- Author:
- Raul Rivera
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- Most people have grown used to thinking about Latin America as a region of marginal global importance: painfully poor, violent, politically and economically unstable and, to top it all, fragmented into some 20-odd countries, each one different from the other. So when Jerry Wind, founding editor of Wharton School Publishing, invited me to speak on Latin America at a Wharton conference aimed at senior U.S. executives, I wondered what a group of U.S. businesspeople would be interested to hear about the region. Who, after all, would want to do business in a place like that? But how accurate are those perceptions? As I prepared for my talk, my conclusion was: not much. Let's address the four principal myths about the region one by one. Myth 1: Latin America Really Does not Matter Economically To start, the territory of continental Latin America is larger than the U.S. and China combined, four times larger than the European Union, and seven times larger than India—a country roughly the size of Argentina. With almost every ecosystem represented, it is in fact the world's most biodiverse region, containing five of the world's ten most biodiverse countries. The region's bio-capacity (the biological productivity of the land measured in hectares per capita) is also larger than any other's. Witness the region's role in the global food chain: it is the largest producer of soybeans, coffee, sugar, bananas, orange juice, a leading fishmeal producer, and a major grain and meat exporter. Its mineral riches keep world industry running: silver, gold, copper, zinc, lead, tin, bismuth, molybdenum, rhenium, telurium, borium, strontium—you name it. And it produces one out of every six barrels of oil. In fact, much of the global community depends on Latin America's vast riches for its prosperity—indeed, for its survival. To that point: the Amazon basin plays a crucial role in the recycling of atmospheric carbon, absorbing one fourth of all global emissions. Latin America's population, now approaching 600 million, is twice that of the U.S. and significantly larger than the combined population of the European Union. Those numbers do not include some 50 million U.S. permanent residents and citizens who trace their origins back to the region (and keep close ties with it). By 2050, the region's population will have risen to an estimated 800 million. Latin America is not poor either. It boasts a per-capita GDP similar to the global average: $10,000. It is no richer or poorer than the rest of the world. In fact, 400 million people, or two-thirds of all Latin Americans, already belong to the global middle class, with their purchasing power fueling much of Latin America's growth. With some 200 million people still living in poverty, Latin America's poor are still numerous. But their ranks are declining fast, at a rate of 5 million a year over the past decade. As a result, its Gini coefficient improved by 10 percent between 2002 and 2008. In brief: the world's poor are now elsewhere—mainly in Asia and Africa. A population this large combined with average income levels have turned Latin America into the fourth largest economy in the world, with a regional GDP of some $6 trillion (purchasing power parity). That is larger than that of Russia and India's combined—larger, in fact, than that of any country or region other than the U.S., the EU and China. Not bad for a “region of marginal importance.” You could argue that Latin America's fragmentation into small, separate markets makes all the difference. But you would be wrong. As a result of the free-market reforms of the past decades, Latin America's economy is now the most open to trade in the developing world, with average tariffs down to 10 percent or less. Intraregional trade is booming. Most significantly, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru have signed bilateral free-trade agreements (with both the EU and the U.S., though Colombia's is waiting for the U.S. Congress' approval). These agreements are giving rise to a free-trade zone of some 200 million consumers, larger than Brazil and fully open to global trade. Surprisingly, it does not yet have a name—or a space among the BRICs. It will, though. Let's name these four countries the L-4 for now...
- Topic:
- Economics and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, India, Brazil, Colombia, Latin America, Mexico, Chile, and Peru
555. What Happened to the North American Idea?
- Author:
- Robert A. Pastor
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- Two decades ago, the leaders of Canada, Mexico and the United States forged an agreement that transformed North America from just a geographical expression to the world's most formidable economic entity. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) eliminated most of the trade and investment barriers that had segmented the continent. Within a decade, trade among the three countries tripled and foreign direct investment (FDI) quintupled. By 2001, the three nations of North America accounted for 36 percent of the world product—up from 30 percent in 1994. And while many economists have waxed enthusiastic about the growing power of Brazil, U.S. trade with Mexico today is more than six times larger than its trade with Brazil. Unfortunately, since 2001 regional cooperation has stagnated. NAFTA, designed to expand trade and investment, has proven too limited in addressing the current issues facing the three countries. The time has come for the leaders of North America to recommit to regional integration if they want to effectively address the policy issues facing the region. For example, in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, NAFTA can play a major role in job creation. A revamped agreement can potentially double exports and allow North America to once again compete with integrated markets in Asia and Europe. Beyond jobs, enhanced coordination and information sharing among NAFTA partners will allow for better control of immigration and the flow of illicit drugs across our borders. Finally, strengthening ties will begin to close the development gap between Mexico and its two neighbors, fortifying the economic and political bloc. The Rise and Fall of North America Though NAFTA has long faded from the headlines, the agreement's first years showed much promise. When the North American market was created in 1992, the impact was almost immediate. Contrary to the claim by U.S. presidential candidate Ross Perot that American jobs would be “sucked” into Mexico, the dramatic increase in North American trade coincided with the largest wave of job creation in U.S. history. Between 1992 and 2000, roughly 22 million jobs were added in the U.S., while trade with and FDI in Canada and Mexico grew more than 17 percent each year. The combination of expanded trade and investment meant that the three countries were actually making products together rather than just trading them. By combining U.S. capital and technology with Mexico's cheaper labor and Canada's abundant resources, the enlarged North American market experienced rapid growth, while Europe stagnated. From the onset of the U.S.-Canadian Free Trade Agreement in 1988 to 2001, trade among Mexico, Canada and the U.S., as a percentage of their trade with the world, leapt from 36 percent to 46 percent. The decline of the integration idea could be dated to the spring of 2001, when Presidents Vicente Fox of Mexico and George W. Bush of the U.S. met Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien in Québec. Fox and his Foreign Minister Jorge Castañeda arrived with a suitcase filled with proposals, such as a North American Commission, a “cohesion” fund to reduce the development gap, a customs union and an immigration agreement. But Chrétien was not interested in including Mexico in Canada's talks with the U.S., and Bush rejected any new multilateral institution or fund. The opportunity for progress was lost. The share of trade among the three countries as a percentage of their trade with the rest of the world dropped from 46 percent in 2001 to 40 percent in 2009—almost to pre-NAFTA levels. The average annual growth of trade among the three countries declined by two-thirds, while growth of foreign direct investment decreased by one-half…
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, Brazil, North America, and Mexico
556. Ask the Experts: The New Brazil and The Changing Hemisphere
- Author:
- Kevin P. Gallagher, Arturo Sarukhan, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Kurt G. Weyland
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- Do traditional models of international relations apply in Latin America?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Environment, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Latin America, and Mexico
557. Leftist Governments in Latin America: Successes and Shortcomings edited by Kurt Weyland, Raúl L. Madrid and Wendy Hunter
- Author:
- Eduardo Silva
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- At the turn of the twenty-first century, the Latin American Left experienced an extraordinary revival, especially in South America. By 2009, eight South American countries and two Central American nations had elected left-wing governments. Is this revival a harbinger of a progressive renaissance or a throwback to failed experiments? Leftist Governments in Latin America: Successes and Shortcomings attempts to answer this question by analyzing the extent to which these governments have improved the livelihoods of their citizens. The seven essays that make up the volume, written by distinguished U.S. and Brazil-based scholars, provide a sharp, scholarly comparison of the outcomes achieved by governments of the moderate left and what coeditor Kurt Weyland of the University of Texas at Austin calls the “contestatory” or more radical left, in an introduction that lays out the theoretical framework. This book, which was also edited by Raúl L. Madrid and Wendy Hunter of the University of Texas, fills a critical gap in the burgeoning literature on the subject.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Brazil, and Latin America
558. Looking for Help: Will Rising Democracies Become International Democracy Supporters?
- Author:
- Thomas Carothers and Richard Youngs
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The emergence of a multipolar world gives Western democracy advocates cause for both optimism and anxiety. China's success sparks fears of the spread of an autocratic development model. Yet democratic states such as Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa, and Turkey are also gaining ground. These countries serve as powerful examples of the universal appeal of democracy and possess unique experiences with democratization. The United States and Europe understandably hope that rising democracies will use their growing prominence to defend democratic values abroad, potentially revitalizing international democracy support.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Human Rights, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Indonesia, Turkey, India, South Africa, and Brazil
559. Integration in the Global South: What Role for IBSA Dialogue Forum?
- Author:
- Mehmet Özkan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- Recently we have seen that the middle-sized states are coming together in several forums. The WTO meetings and India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) dialogue forum are among those to be cited. Such groupings are mainly economy oriented and whether they will have political output needs to be seen, however, in the future if globalization goes in a similar way as today, we might see more groupings. Those groupings should be seen as reactions to unjust and exclusive globalization. The IBSA Dialogue Forum members have enhanced their relations economically by signing bilateral trade agreements and acting together on economic issues in global forums. If they can hold together, they are creating a market more than ¼ of global population and, if successful, it has a chance to be the engine of growth in the South. Moreover if they can create the biggest market in the South, they would also be influential in the being of the voice of the South. In that sense, this paper addresses the possible ways to develop relations between the IBSA members and economic development in the South, furthermore, implication of the IBSA on global governance and development can be as critical as its contribution to economic development, since the global governing bodies have legitimacy crisis.
- Topic:
- Cold War and Economics
- Political Geography:
- India, South Africa, and Brazil
560. Political Appointments and Coalition Management in Brazil, 2007-2010
- Author:
- Sérgio Praça, Andréa Freitas, and Bruno Hoepers
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Studies on coalition management in presidential systems usually focus on two types of goods used by the president and formateur party to hold together coalitions: exchange goods (such as individual budget amendments) and coalition goods (such as ministries). This research notes analyzes, with an original dataset of party members and political appointees in Brazil, a different type of good: presidential political appointments. Our study shows that partisan political appointees vary greatly among Brazilian ministries and within them. We also found that there is a disconnect between how many seats a political party holds in Congress and the number of political appointment offices it controls. This has implications for the literature on bureaucracy and politics and the literature on coalition management.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
561. Germany as a Geo-economic Power
- Author:
- Hans Kundnani
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Berlin's March 2011 abstention on the UN Security Council vote on military intervention in Libya has raised questions about Germany's role in the international system. By abstaining on Security Council Resolution 1973, Germany broke with its Western allies and aligned itself with the four BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Whether or not the decision signals a weakening of what Germans call the Westbindung, it illustrates the strength of Germany's ongoing reluctance to use military force as a foreign-policy tool even in a multilateral context and to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe. Over the past few years, as the number of German and civilian casualties has increased in Afghanistan, the German public has become more skeptical about the mission of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in particular and about the deployment of German troops abroad in general. Like Germany, other EU member states such as France and the United Kingdom are cutting their defense budgets, but Germany shares few of their aspirations to project power beyond Europe.
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, China, India, Libya, Brazil, Germany, and Berlin
562. The Genesis of the GATS (General Agreement on Trade in Services)
- Author:
- Petros C. Mavroidis and Juan A. Marchetti
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- The Uruguay Round services negotiations saw the light of day amidst pressures from lobbies in developed countries, unilateral retaliatory actions, and ideological struggle in the developing world. The final outcome, the GATS, certainly characterized by a complex structure and awkward drafting here and there, is not optimal but is an important first step towards the liberalization of trade in services. This article traces the GATS negotiating history, from its very beginning in the late 1970s, paying particular attention to the main forces that brought the services dossier to the multilateral trading system (governments, industries, and academics), and the interaction between developed and developing countries before and during the Uruguay Round. We will follow the actions, positions, and negotiating stances of four trading partners – Brazil, the European Union, India, and the United States – that were key in the development of the GATS. Finally, we will, indicatively at least, try to attribute a 'paternity' (or, rather, a 'maternity') to some key features and provisions of the agreement.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, India, and Brazil
563. Brazil's Long To-Do List
- Author:
- Andrew Zimbalist
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- Can Brazil build the massive infrastructure it needs to host the Olympics and the World Cup?
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
564. Hearts, Minds and Bottom Lines
- Author:
- Simon Wardle
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- Fans and profits.
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
565. Ask the Experts: Sports—Business, Integration Social Change
- Author:
- Larry Rohter, Mick Cornett, Robert A. Baade, and Marty Markowitz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- Does hosting sporting events promote social and economic development?
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and New Delhi
566. Deforestation's Challenge to Green Growth in Brazil
- Author:
- Benjamin S. Allen, Charles Travers, and Louise Travers
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- Understanding Brazil's green growth and emissions story requires a second look. Brazil's energy matrix is approximately 46% renewable, so when one compares the share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy in Brazil to that of most OECD countries, Brazil is doing relatively well (IPEA 2010, 133). However, looking at energy alone misses the core GHG story in Brazil: The principal drivers of GHG emissions in the country are not energy production or heavy industry, but rather deforestation and agriculture. Deforestation is responsible for about 55% of Brazil's GHG emissions, and agriculture for another 25% (McKinsey Company 2009, 7). In fact, the two areas of emissions are intimately linked: deforestation is principally a problem of agriculture. Cattle ranching and soybean and sugar cane farming are the major industries contributing to Brazil's emergence today as an agricultural and agroenergy superpower – and are directly and indirectly responsible for deforestation in Brazil's largest forests, the Amazon and Atlantic (Banco Mundial 2010, Barros 2009, Margulis 2004, McAllister 2008b, Nassar 2009, Nepstad et al. 2008, Sennes and Narciso 2009). By extension, because Brazil's large and growing renewable energy sector is principally based on agriculture, it has ties to deforestation and may not be as green as it first appears.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
567. Land Titling as Women's Empowerment: Critical Observations from Recife Brazil
- Author:
- Regina K. Pritchett
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Development literature overwhelmingly argues in favor of formal property ownership (titling) as a practical intervention for poor women's empowerment and to address urban poverty. In this body of literature empowerment is equated with financial, social and politic al gains but it lacks a rigorous definition. Luke's three-dimensional power framework provides a methodology for critical assessment of empowerment. The chapter structures Luke's analysis around a case study from a center city slum in Recife, Brazil. Ultimately the chapter demonstrates how a critical definition of empowerment can move thinking and practice towards re-engineering titling process for gender equity in urban land markets.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Gender Issues, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
568. Good Sports: Lionel Messi, Albert Pujols, Marta Vieira, and other star athletes from the hemisphere highlight their favorite causes.
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Development and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States and Brazil
569. Brazil's Long To-Do List
- Author:
- Andrew Zimbalist
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- Can Brazil build the massive infrastructure it needs to host the Olympics and the World Cup?
- Topic:
- Corruption, Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
570. Sports Populism
- Author:
- Simon Kuper
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- Fans like their teams—but not necessarily the politicians who support them.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Latin America, and England
571. Is the OAS Irrelevant?
- Author:
- Anthony DePalma
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Brazil
572. Is Indonesia Bound for the BRICs?
- Author:
- Karen Brooks
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Indonesia is in the midst of a yearlong debut on the world stage. This past spring and summer, it hosted a series of high-profile summits, including for the Overseas Private Investment Corporation in May, the World Economic Forum on East Asia the same month, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in July. With each event, Indonesia received broad praise for its leadership and achievements. This coming-out party will culminate in November, when the country hosts the East Asia Summit, which U.S. President Barack Obama and world leaders from 17 other countries will attend. As attention turns to Indonesia, the time is ripe to assess whether Jakarta can live up to all the hype. A little over ten years ago, during the height of the Asian financial crisis, Indonesia looked like a state on the brink of collapse. The rupiah was in a death spiral, protests against President Suharto's regime had turned into riots, and violence had erupted against Indonesia's ethnic Chinese community. The chaos left the country -- the fourth largest in the world, a sprawling archipelago including more than 17,000 islands, 200 million people, and the world's largest Muslim population -- without a clear leader. Today, Indonesia is hailed as a model democracy and is a darling of the international financial community. The Jakarta Stock Exchange has been among the world's top performers in recent years, and some analysts have even called for adding Indonesia to the ranks of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). More recent efforts to identify the economic superstars of the future -- Goldman Sachs' "Next 11," PricewaterhouseCoopers' "E-7" (emerging 7), The Economist's "CIVETS" (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa), and Citigroup's "3G" -- all include Indonesia.
- Topic:
- Economics and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Indonesia, India, East Asia, Brazil, and Island
573. Reducing Inequality: The Role of Reforms in Brazil
- Author:
- Phillipe G. Leite
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Government programs have significantly reduced inequality in Brazil over the past fifteen years. Much work remains, however, to ensure these initiatives remain sustainable.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
574. Regional Powers in Growing Dialogue: The Brazil-Turkey Strategic Partnership and its Implementation
- Author:
- Elena Lazarou
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- With a new government in Brasilia, and with Dilma Roussef appearing to distance herself somewhat from some of the most controversial aspects of Lula's foreign policy, speculation abounds regarding how Brazil will follow up on its decisive steps in the Middle East. Iran is a telling, albeit extreme, example. Already, Mrs. Roussef has shown herself to be far more critical of the regime in Teheran, and Antonio Patriota, the new Foreign Minister, has manifested his skepticism with regards to Iranian sincerity, a notable departure from Lula's stance in late 2009 when he publicly asked European leaders to show patience concerning the Iranian case. While we may well be witnessing a change in Brazil's policy towards Iran, this by no means suggests a shift of Brazilian foreign policy interests away from the Middle East. In fact, all signs seem to be suggesting that under Patriota, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry's involvement in and interaction with the region is likely to increase. And while ties with Iran may never reach the level of "warmth" that the Lula-Ahmadinejad handshake suggested, the forecast for Brazil's relations with its real key partner in the region, Turkey, is, if nothing else, promising and likely to endure well beyond the coming year.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Strategic Interests, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Brazil, and South America
575. India-Brazil: Combating the double disease burden
- Author:
- Mohit Nair and Abhijeet Deshmukh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
- Abstract:
- Today, both India and Brazil face the risk of an increase in communicable and non-communicable diseases, given the inefficient healthcare delivery systems. How can these nations help each other implement policy changes – to weed out hiccups to healthcare systems – and serve as a model for developing nations? When the term BRIC was first coined in 2001, Brazil and India were reputed as two leading emerging markets with tremendous growth potential. While both nations have sustained high growth rates for almost a decade, both are increasingly facing the onerous double disease burden that could prove to be economically and socially crippling if left unchecked. The double disease burden refers to the rise of communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Inefficient healthcare delivery systems and high rates of urbanization have contributed to periodic rises in communicable diseases such as tuberculosis, malaria and HIV. At the same time, as life expectancy increases in both nations, there has been a concomitant hike in the prevalence of NCDs such as cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. This double disease burden is a common characteristic of developing nations and the increasing morbidity and loss of economic activity has the risk of hampering economic growth. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the estimated loss in income from heart disease, stroke and diabetes alone was $8.7 billion in India and $2.7 billion in Brazil in 2005. This is expected to increase to $54 billion in India and $9.3 billion in Brazil by 2015. By implementing proper policy measures, both Brazil and India can avoid a health care catastrophe and serve as a model for developing nations.
- Topic:
- Development, Health, World Health Organization, Infectious Diseases, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, Brazil, and South America
576. India-Brazil: Combating the double disease burden
- Author:
- Mohit Nair and Abhijeet Deshmukh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
- Abstract:
- When the term BRIC was first coined in 2001, Brazil and India were reputed as two leading emerging markets with tremendous growth potential. While both nations have sustained high growth rates for almost a decade, both are increasingly facing the onerous double disease burden that could prove to be economically and socially crippling if left unchecked. The double disease burden refers to the rise of communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Inefficient healthcare delivery systems and high rates of urbanization have contributed to periodic rises in communicable diseases such as tuberculosis, malaria and HIV. At the same time, as life expectancy increases in both nations, there has been a concomitant hike in the prevalence of NCDs such as cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. This double disease burden is a common characteristic of developing nations and the increasing morbidity and loss of economic activity has the risk of hampering economic growth. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the estimated loss in income from heart disease, stroke and diabetes alone was $8.7 billion in India and $2.7 billion in Brazil in 2005. This is expected to increase to $54 billion in India and $9.3 billion in Brazil by 2015. By implementing proper policy measures, both Brazil and India can avoid a health care catastrophe and serve as a model for developing nations. There is no doubt that Brazil has outperformed India in terms of controlling the spread of communicable diseases. Yet, challenges remain. While rates of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis are comparatively lower in Brazil than in India, rates of dengue fever in Brazil are six times higher than they were in the 1990s, with 3.5 million cases in the last decade and no available vaccine (Barreto et. al, 2011). Control of neglected tropical diseases such as visceral leishmaniasis is also currently very poor. India has an even more unsettling disease profile with major diseases like tuberculosis responsible for more than 300,000 deaths per year. In addition, while the government boasts a reduction in prevalence rates of HIV/AIDS, it is still home to over 2.4 million HIV/AIDS patients. Equally worrying is the monumental rise in rates of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. According to the WHO, non-communicable diseases currently cause 35 million deaths per year and 80 percent of these occur in low- or middle-income countries (World Diabetes Foundation 2010). India will incur an accumulated loss of over $200 billion due to non-communicable diseases by 2015, and Brazil will see an estimated loss of $49.2 billion due to diabetes and cardiovascular disease alone (World Diabetes Foundation 2010). It is clear that Brazil and India will not be able to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015 unless the double disease burden and associated challenges of alleviating the rising economic and human costs are addressed. Overall, Brazil’s efforts and programs have been more effective than India’s. Brazil’s acceptance of health care as a constitutional right for all citizens in 1988, regardless of their ability to pay, has led to groundbreaking health care reforms by the Brazilian government. Its HIV/AIDS program has served as an exemplar of government intervention. In the 1990s, the World Bank had estimated that 1.2 million people would be living with AIDS in Brazil by 2000, but in reality, the actual figure was less than 600,000 due to effective government intervention (Avert n.d.). India however, still struggles with a lack of effective communication between federal, state and municipal governments and woeful implementation of health coverage across sectors. Since India has a disproportionate share (21 percent) of the global disease burden, it is essential that it learn from Brazil a country that has achieved several significant milestones in addressing the health care needs of its citizens who are below the poverty line. India could adopt similar health care strategies to promote collaboration between the two nations to combat the double disease burden.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Infectious Diseases, Health Care Policy, and Public Health
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, Brazil, and South America
577. Explaining the Energy Consumption Portfolio in a Cross-Section of Countries: Are the BRICs Different?
- Author:
- David M. Arseneau
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper uses disaggregated data from a broad cross-section of countries to empirically assess differences in energy consumption profiles across countries. We find empirical support for the energy ladder hypothesis, which contends that as an economy develops it transits away from a heavier reliance on traditional fuel sources towards an increase in the use of modern commercial energy sources. We also find empirical support for the hypothesis that structural transformation--the idea that as an economy matures, it transforms away from agriculture-based activity into industrial activity and, finally, fully matures into a service-oriented economy--is an important driver for the distribution of end-use energy consumption. However, even when these two hypotheses are taken into account, we continue to find evidence suggesting that the patterns of energy consumption in the BRIC economies are importantly different from those of other economies.
- Topic:
- Development, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Services, and BRIC
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, Brazil, South America, and Global Focus
578. Liquidity and Reserve Requirements in Brazil
- Author:
- Patrice Robitaille
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The international reform initiative that followed the global financial crisis of 2008-09 has resulted in the introduction of liquidity requirements for banks. Under one requirement, the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR), banks will need to hold enough highly liquid assets to survive for a month in a stress scenario. Banks' required reserve balances can be used to fulfill this liquidity requirement and this may be seen as an attractive option for emerging market economies, where financial sectors are often underdeveloped. In this paper, I examine the Brazilian experience prior to and during the global crisis as a case study that can shed light into the challenges of using reserve requirements as a liquidity management tool. Brazilian reserve requirements did not ensure adequate liquidity, in part because the smallest banks were exempted from the requirements. Financial innovations were also used by banks to circumvent reserve requirements. In Brazil, the use of reserve requirements as a liquidity management tool is often justified by the argument that reserve requirements fulfilled a critical liquidity provision role in the fall of 2008. I argue that Brazilian reserve requirements did not actually serve well the liquidity provision goal.
- Topic:
- Finance, Investment, Banking, and Liquidity
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
579. Determinants of Economic Growth in BRIC Countries
- Author:
- Rajeev K. Goel and Iikka Korhonen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
- Abstract:
- We study economic growth in four emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC). Questions addressed are: (a) How do medium term growth determinants differ from short term determinants? (b) What are differences between growth effects of aggregate versus disaggregated exports? And (c) Does lower institutional quality hinder growth? Results show that while BRIC nations have higher growth, there are significant within-group differences. China and Russia mostly showed higher growth, while India sometimes showed positive growth, and Brazil did not outperform the rest. Policy implications are discussed.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Economic Growth, Institutions, Exports, and BRIC
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, and Brazil
580. Where was united Africa in the climate change negotiations?
- Author:
- Jean-Christophe Hoste
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- A political commitment was reached in Copenhagen between five countries: US, China, India Brazil and South Africa. The rest of the conference simply “took note of it”, most with resignation, many with anger. This policy brief will have a closer look at the climate change negotiations from an African perspective. It will try to answer three questions to see whether the outcome of the negotiations was as unacceptable as South Africa said it was. First, what was the African Common Position and what were some of their demands? Second, how did the negotiating strategy to defend the African Common Position on climate change evolve? Third, why did South Africa call the agreement it negotiated with the US, China and India unacceptable but did it not decline to be part of that deal?
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Globalization, International Cooperation, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil
581. Significance of Turkey-Brazil Nuclear Deal with Iran
- Author:
- Mehmet Ozkan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of Foreign Policy Studies, University of Calcutta
- Abstract:
- With the participation of the foreign ministers of Turkey and Brazil along with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Iran has signed a joint declaration on May 17, 2010 with Brazil and Turkey "in which Iran agreed to send low-enriched uranium to Turkey in return for enriched fuel for a research reactor.” This joint declaration was considered a very serious one by specialists closely following the nuclear negotiations. However, instead of responding positively to the agreement, the US and the overall reaction of the West had fixated on making sanctions against Iran a reality, although the content of the deal was what the US sought from Iran. This has materialized itself with the new UN Security Council decision which brings new sanctions on Iran. On June 9, 2010, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1929, imposing a complete arms embargo on Iran, travel bans on certain Iranian figures, banned Iran from any activities related to ballistic missiles, the freezing of all assets to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and Iran Shipping Lines, and to inspect all Iranian cargo or financial institutions, such as banks, on their territory.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Brazil, and Latin America
582. Not Ready for Prime Time: Why Including Emerging Powers at the Helm Would Hurt Global Governance
- Author:
- Jorge G. Castañeda
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Few matters generate as much consensus in international affairs today as the need to rebuild the world geopolitical order. Everyone seems to agree, at least in their rhetoric, that the makeup of the United Nations Security Council is obsolete and that the G-8 no longer includes all the world's most important economies. Belgium still has more voting power in the leading financial institutions than either China or India. New actors need to be brought in. But which ones? And what will be the likely results? If there is no doubt that a retooled international order would be far more representative of the distribution of power in the world today, it is not clear whether it would be better.The major emerging powers, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, catchily labeled the BRICs by Goldman Sachs, are the main contenders for inclusion. There are other groupings, too: the G-5, the G-20, and the P-4; the last -- Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan -- are the wannabes that hope to join the UN Security Council and are named after the P-5, the council's permanent members (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States). Up for the G-8 are Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa. The G-8 invited representatives of those five states to its 2003 summit in Evian, France, and from 2005 through 2008, this so-called G-5 attended its own special sessions on the sidelines of the G-8's.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, and Brazil
583. Cautious Optimism for Peace in Colombia
- Author:
- Virginia M. Bouvier
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The new Colombian administration that took office in early August faces a unique set of peacemaking challenges and opportunities related to the country's internal armed conflict. Following a spate of tensions with neighboring countries regarding the presence of illegal armed groups along Colombia's border areas, newly-inaugurated President Juan Manuel Santos moved quickly to create new mechanisms with his neighbors to ensure that contentious regional issues are addressed before they reach the boiling point. In a surprising video released just before the president-elect was inaugurated, the top leader of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces-People's Army (FARC-EP), called on Santos to enter a dialogue without preconditions, thereby opening a new window of opportunities to pursue peace. President Santos responded that “the door to dialogue is not locked,” insisting however that the guerrillas must lay down their weapons and meet a series of other pre-conditions before talks could occur. Former mediators differ over whether such preconditions will pose an obstacle to talks. In the final days of August, Brazil and Ecuador rejected a FARC-EP request for meeting with the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) to discuss a political solution to Colombia's conflict. UNASUR leaders said they would not engage in mediating the conflict in the absence of an express invitation from the Colombian government. The Colombian government has rejected UNASUR mediation and underscored its preference to negotiate directly with the FARC-EP once the latter meets the government's preconditions. Concrete good faith efforts—both public and private—will be required from the government and the guerrillas to build confidence, address the legacy of distrust created by decades of violence and set the stage for future talks.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Colombia, and Latin America
584. Verschiebungen der globalen Machtverhältnisse durch den Aufstieg von Regionalen Führungsmächten. China, Indien, Brasilien und Südafrika im Vergleich
- Author:
- Robert Kappel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- A number of regional powers are becoming important international actors and are changing the coordinates of world politics and the global economy. The political and economicshift in favor of these regional powers has been accompanied by the relative loss of importance of the US, Japan, and the EU. The latter countries are increasingly challenged by the economic growth and the geostrategical actions of the regional powers. As the conception of and debates on regional powers have been led by political science, this paper aims to contribute to the discussion from an economics perspective. Based on the discussion of different concepts of economic power–such as those of Schumpeter, Perroux, Predöhl, or Kindleberger–concepts of technological leadership, and the global value chain approaches, the paper develops a research framework for the economics of regional powers. This framework is then tested using descriptive statistics as well as regressions analysis, with a focus on the four regional powers Brazil, China, India, and South Africa. As economic power is relational, the relationship of regional powers to other nations in the region is analyzed. According to the findings, only limited conclusions on the economics of regional powers are possible: a regional power can be described as an economy with a relatively large population and land area which plays a dominant role in trade within the region and in the regional governance. The regional power develops its technological capacities, and its businesses act regionally and globally with increasing strength.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, India, and Brazil
585. Eurasian Bargaining, Agriculture, and the Doha Round
- Author:
- Sarita D. Jackson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
- Institution:
- The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This article explores the participation of the Eurasian countries that have recently joined the World Trade Organization and are thus a part of the Recently Acceded Members (RAMs) coalition. The author argues that the active participation of these countries with small economies deserves attention in the WTO agricultural talks. Most studies focus on the leverage of the larger economies among the developing nations such as Brazil, China, India and South Africa. The article goes further to highlight that Eurasian countries have the ability to continue to push for flexibility provisions and can benefit from China's classification as a RAMs country. On the other hand, these same countries face the challenge of becoming more competitive in the international agricultural market. However, those challenges can be addressed through developing infrastructure, technology and skills to allow for smaller Eurasian WTO members to become efficient producers and competitive exporters.
- Topic:
- Agriculture
- Political Geography:
- China, Eurasia, India, South Africa, and Brazil
586. No Country for Leftists? Clientelist Continuity and the 2006 Vote in the Brazilian Northeast
- Author:
- Alfred P. Montero
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Building upon recent studies of the electoral effects of social policy and President Lula da Silva's coattails in the 2006 Brazilian elections, this article explains the performance of leftist and conservative candidates in elections for governor during that cycle in the Northeast region. The study assesses three systemic factors: the conditional cash transfer program, Bolsa Família, economic growth, and Lula's coattails on support for right-wing incumbents and left-wing oppositions in the states of Bahia, Maranhão, and Ceará. Based on the analysis of an original municipal-level dataset and a survey of partisan elites, the findings underscore the importance of urban-based party building strategies across the three states and patterns of elite alliances specific to each state. Alliances made in the capitals coupled with divided conservative establishments, facilitated leftist victories in the examined states. At the same time, variations in alliance patterns and leftist party development across the three states reveal that conservative clientele networks remain vibrant bases of right-wing support, especially in the interior, and despite either social policy or Lula's coattails.
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
587. The Institutional Feasibility of National-Local Policy Collaboration: Insights from Brazil and Argentina
- Author:
- Tracy Beck Fenwick
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- The goal of this paper is to suggest that municipalities can facilitate the central government's ability to carry out its desired policy goals. Using three institutional variables that provide internal evidence for each case, I will argue that within some institutional configurations the center may seek uniformity of outcome by trying to circumvent governors and/or regional intermediation and forge a direct relationship with municipalities. Based on research from the area of social protection policy in Brazil and Argentina, I suggest that direct national-local collaboration contributed to the ability of the Brazilian central government to bypass governors and evenly spread non-contributory welfare goods across its territory and alleviate poverty. I argue that such policy collaboration is less likely to be institutionally feasible in a federal system like Argentina's, where such equivalent collaboration is impeded by the ability of its provinces to directly capture local units of government and undermine national policy outcomes and executive preferences.
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Argentina
588. Haiti: The Stakes of the Post-Quake Elections
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Haiti votes in a month's time – on 28 November 2010 – for a new president and nearly an entire legislature in perhaps the most important elections in its history. The government that emerges will need to manage a major part of the decade of recovery from the worst disaster ever in the Western Hemisphere. To do so, it requires the legitimacy that can only come from credible elections. But the historical obstacles – such as low turnout, suspicion of fraud and campaign violence – not only persist but have been greatly exacerbated by the 12 January earthquake that killed a quarter million people and left the capital in ruins and its government in disarray, as well as by the current outbreak of cholera. Polarising politics and a body organising the balloting that lacks full public confidence in its integrity add to the challenge. If the electoral process is to be as transparent, non-violent and widely participated in as it needs to be, the government must meet a higher standard than ever before, and the UN, regional organisations and donors like the U.S., Canada, the EU and Brazil must urgently press for this and expand support.
- Topic:
- Democratization, United Nations, and Natural Disasters
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Canada, Brazil, and Caribbean
589. Can Asia Learn from Brazil's Agricultural Success?
- Author:
- Paul Teng and Margarita Escaler
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Over the last four decades, Brazil has transformed its agricultural sector to become the first tropical agricultural giant and the first to challenge the dominance of the world's major food exporters. This paper examines the secrets of Brazil's success and ponders whether Asia should try to emulate the Brazilian model to help achieve food security for its people and contribute to an increased level of selfsufficiency in the region.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Brazil, and Latin America
590. Sustainable security in Latin America and the Caribbean
- Author:
- Ben Zala
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- This report summarises the analysis from a consultation of specialists on Latin America and the Caribbean applying the concept of sustainable security at a regional level. Hosted by Oxford Research Group (ORG) and the Norwegian Peacebuilding Centre (Noref), the recommendations include: Addressing political fragmentation in order to provide the capacity to respond effectively to the security challenges of climate change, militarisation and increasingly marginalised populations. A number of regional powers - particularly Brazil - are well placed to provide leadership but it would require a national consensus on a regional leadership role at a time when Brazil's focus is on developing a stronger global role; Initiatives such as the South American Defence Council should be given top priority in foreign and defence policies and their institutionalisation should be adequately funded and supported by all member states; New policy options are needed in the short-medium term to combat increasing environmental stresses and resource depletion; States across the region need to regain public confidence in relation to their ability to meet the security needs of their populations without resorting to military force. This will need to include steps to de-militarise the police, intelligence agencies and policies to limit the general remit as well as specific missions of the armed forces; Over the next 5-10 years, a radical shift towards sustainable approaches to security will be hugely important. If there is no change in thinking, security policies will continue to be based on the assumption that an elite minority can maintain its position, environmental problems can be marginalised, and the lid can be kept on dissent and insecurity.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, and Crime
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Caribbean
591. Dilemmas of Brazilian Grand Strategy
- Author:
- Hal Brands
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This monograph analyzes Brazilian grand strategy under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. During Lula's nearly 8 years in office, he has pursued a multipronged grand strategy aimed at hastening the transition from unipolarity and Western economic hegemony to a multipolar order in which international rules, norms, and institutions are more favorable to Brazilian interests. Lula has done so by emphasizing three diplomatic strategies: soft balancing against the United States, building coalitions to magnify Brazilian negotiating power, and seeking to position Brazil as the leader of a more united South America.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Brazil, South America, and Latin America
592. Energy Innovation: Driving Technology Competition and Cooperation Among the U.S., China, India, and Brazil
- Author:
- Adam Segal, Elizabeth C. Economy, Michael A. Levi, and Shannon K. O'Neil
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- If governments are to respond effectively to the challenge of climate change, they will need to ramp up their support for innovation in low-carbon technologies and make sure that the resulting developments are diffused and adopted quickly. Yet for the United States, there is a tension inherent in these goals: the country's interests in encouraging the spread of technology can clash with its efforts to strengthen its own economy of particular importance is the spread of low-carbon technologies from the United States to the major emerging economies—China, India, and Brazil. Washington's strategy to promote the spread of low-carbon technologies to these countries must combine efforts to grow and open markets for low-carbon technologies with active support for accelerating the innovation and diffusion of these technologies. Its strategy will also need to reflect the unique challenges presented by each of the three countries.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Washington, and Brazil
593. La influencia de los actores domésticos en la política exterior brasileña durante el gobierno de Lula da Silva La influencia de los actores domésticos en la política exterior brasileña durante el gobierno de Lula da Silva
- Author:
- Clarisa Giaccaglia
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- La preponderancia de la corriente realista en el ámbito de las relaciones internacionales relegó a un plano secundario la consideración de los factores domésticos en el análisis del comportamiento externo de un Estado. No obstante, a partir de la post-Guerra Fría, la preocupación por cuestiones internas ha ido en aumento. En el caso de Brasil, el advenimiento de la globalización y de la redemocratización en el plano regional hicieron que la política externa se tornase más permeable para la sociedad brasileña. Cabe entonces preguntarse: ¿quiénes son los principales agentes involucrados actualmente en la formulación y ejecución de la política exterior brasileña? ¿Qué factores políticos, sociales y económicos de la estructura doméstica influyen en el proceso de toma de decisiones?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
594. Turkey's Iran Policy: Between Diplomacy and Sanctions
- Author:
- Kadir Üstün
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed the fourth round of sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 9, 2010. Turkey, along with Brazil, voted in opposition to sanctions while Lebanon abstained from the vote. Turkey and Brazil's votes were particularly critical because they demonstrated a lack of unity within the international community. The rationale behind Brazil and Turkey's votes derived from the fact that the nuclear swap deal signed by Iran is, so far, the only concrete deal. It represents the only legal basis that the international community can build upon and hold Iran accountable. Although both countries' “no” votes were consistent with their diplomatic efforts, many analysts are criticizing Turkey in particular for not voting with its traditionally strong allies such as the US. Turkey's vote against the new round of sanctions represents an important milestone not because Turkey is abandoning its long-time allies but because Turkey is learning to make its own foreign policy calculations and decisions.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Turkey, Brazil, and Lebanon
595. Brazil on $300 a Year
- Author:
- Jeb Blount
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- World Policy Journal
- Institution:
- World Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- RIO de JANEIRO—My wife and I got used to Lourdes' annual departures. Our maid's happy chatter would transform into vague grumblings and complaints about dores nos ossos—the pain in her bones. She'd start in on her cachaça-drinking husband, the alcoholic, and her many humiliations at the hands of the mouthy, pregnant teenage girls who roam Caju, the drug gang-dominated Rio de Janeiro slum, or favela, where she lives. Lourdes would say she missed her elderly mother in Paraiba, a poor state in Brazil's northeast. She'd say it was time to retire. Then we'd pay her and chip in a few extra hundred reais for the four-day bus ride to Paraiba and she'd leave.
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
596. Currency Wars?
- Author:
- William R. Cline and John Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- A widespread currency war is in prospect. The term was first introduced by Guido Mantega, the finance minster of Brazil. He envisaged the International Monetary Fund (IMF) developing an index that measures whether currencies are held artificially low to boost exports (popularly referred to as “currency manipulation”). If that IMF exercise did not lead to an easing of such exchange market intervention, he suggested that an undervalued exchange rate could eventually be considered a commercial subsidy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
597. Irresponsible Stakeholders?
- Author:
- Stewart Patrick
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- A major strategic challenge for the United States in the coming decades will be integrating emerging powers into international institutions. To hold the postwar order together, the United States will have to become a more consistent exemplar of multilateral cooperation.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Brazil
598. The Fertile Continent
- Author:
- Roger Thurow
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- With one billion people already going hungry and the world's population rising, global food production must urgently be increased. The countries that managed such surges in the past -- Brazil, China, India, the United States -- cannot do so again. But Africa can -- if it finally uses the seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation methods common everywhere else.
- Topic:
- Agriculture
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, China, India, and Brazil
599. A New Global Player
- Author:
- Julia E. Sweig
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Brazil's rapid economic growth has transformed the country into a new global heavyweight, but Brazil must not let an overly ambitious foreign policy agenda distract it from lingering domestic challenges.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
600. Knowing Left From Right: Ideological Identification in Brazil, 2002-2006
- Author:
- Barry Ames and Amy Erica Smith
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Ideology, typically defined on a left-right spectrum, should provide a means of communication between elites and masses. After years of leftist party rule, have Brazilian voters internalized ideological divisions? Longitudinal surveys conducted from 2002 to 2006 reveal high nonresponse and instability in ideological self-identification. We find that the capacity to think ideologically is in part a function of political and social context. This capacity has real political consequences. A Heckman selection model reveals that those who refuse to take an ideological position or who exhibit high instability in self-identification tend to be latent rightists and to choose rightist presidential candidates. Moreover, they interpret the ideological spectrum differently from those who are more consistent in ideological self-placement. We thus make two contributions, showing how contextual factors influence ideological thinking and how low levels of ideological thinking affect the measurement of Brazilian public opinion.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Brazil