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22. A post-Western global order in the making? Foreign policy goals of India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa
- Author:
- Sinikukka Saari, Toni Alaranta, Bart Gaens, Katariina Mustasilta, and Lauri Tahtinen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa are striving for a more multipolar, post-Western world order in which they would not be seen merely as auxiliary powers to the bigger players, but as independent great powers. For them, a key foreign policy goal is to transform global governance institutions. They all call for a permanent seat for their country on the UN Security Council. To achieve that, the states need backing from more than the Western states – and this logically strengthens the multi-aligned logic of their foreign policies. India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa see Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and the Western countermeasures from their own perspective. They describe Russia’s invasion as a violation of international law, but see the war primarily as a Western concern, not theirs. Although these states are critical towards the West, they are not anti-Western and they all value multilateral institutions; their foreign policy goals and features offer opportunities for the EU to engage with them, but that needs to happen on a more equal footing than what has traditionally been the case.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, UN Security Council, Multipolarity, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Turkey, India, Asia, Brazil, and Latin America
23. Brasil-Estados Unidos-China en el orden global a principios del siglo XXI: Un análisis desde la perspectiva de la política exterior brasileña
- Author:
- Maria da Luz Ramos, Carla Guapo da Costa, and Gabrieli Gaio
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- Este artículo aborda las diversas orientaciones de la política exterior brasileña (PEB) en el siglo XXI teniendo en cuenta el contexto de las relaciones establecidas entre Brasil y dos importantes actores del orden geopolítico contemporáneo: Estados Unidos (EEUU) y China. Desde una lectura geopolítica Norte-Sur del orden global, se analiza la(s) forma(s) en que el PEB y sus actores construyen sus representaciones sobre dichos actores y estructuran, en consecuencia, su agenda externa en relación con ellos.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, History, Geopolitics, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- China, Brazil, South America, United States of America, Global South, and Global North
24. Cold War rivalry on Brazil’s and Argentina’snuclear programs: examining military and civilian intentions
- Author:
- André Luiz Cançado Motta and José Paulo Silva Ferreira
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Institution:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Abstract:
- The objective of this article is to investigate whether Cold War rivalry influenced the development of nuclear programs in Brazil and Argentina. The research employs a qualitative approach and bibliographic analysis of primary sources, including articles, books, and other relevant sources. The main hypothesis is to examine whether the culture of Cold War rivalry stimulated the development of nuclear programs in these countries, analysing the military and civilian intentions behind their nuclear technologies. While it is commonly reported that Latin America was under the influence of the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (USSR) during the Cold War, the cases of Brazil and Argentina show the opposite. Both countries adopted independent nuclear policies, seeking technological transfer through diversified and autonomous partnerships. Additionally, these divergent positions included arguments and actions regarding their respective nuclear policies. However, mutual distrust between Brazil and Argentina regarding the advancement and sophistication of their nuclear programs generated a dynamic similar to the Cold War in the Southern Cone region. This dynamic originated internally based on the logic of the two countries, despite the later creation of joint non-proliferation mechanisms.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, History, Rivalry, Military, and Nuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, and South America
25. Navigating through continuity and innovation: an analysis of Lula’s third term challenges involving migration policy
- Author:
- Matheus Felten Fröhlich and Veronica Korber Gonçalves
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Institution:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Abstract:
- This article addresses the first hundred days of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's third term as president of Brazil in the contextof international migration and refuge. The paper aims to analyse the “intermestic” characteristics of foreign policy and its relationship with the formulation of specific guidelines on migration. Using documentary sources and interviews, we examine the context in which Lula took charge, which was marked by the recognition of “prima facie” refugee status for Venezuelan citizens, the elaboration of a national migration policy, and the definition of the future of Operation Welcome. Our objective is to reflect on the main challenges faced by the new government concerning migration and refugee issues, considering the historical con-struction of the agenda in the last two decades. We conclude that the current focus is on revamping crucial policies to ensure the smooth operation of orderly migration within the country, as these practices have been gradually dismantled in recent years. Besides, we highlight that the future of Opera-tion Welcome remains uncertain at this stage.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Governance, Law, Refugees, Lula da Silva, and Migration Policy
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
26. Follow the money: connecting anti-money laundering systems to disrupt environmental crime in the Amazon
- Author:
- Melina Risso, Carolina Andrade Quevedo, Lycia Brasil, Vivian Calderoni, and Maria Fe Vallejo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Igarapé Institute
- Abstract:
- Environmental crime became the world’s third most lucrative illicit economy after drug trafficking and smuggling, with estimates of $110 to $281 billion in annual profits. Between 2006 and 2016, environmental crimes grew at a rate of 5% to 7% per year, a pace two or three times faster than that of global GDP growth. Money laundering is part of the criminal machinery that plunders the Amazon Rainforest. The study “Follow the Money: connecting anti-money laundering systems to disrupt environmental crime in the amazon” reveals the need for systems, agencies, and institutions responsible for preventing money laundering to turn their attention to the connections between this illicit practice and environmental crimes. The Igarapé study shows that the money laundering cycle follows three stages before the laundered funds can enter the financial system: placement, layering, and integration. However, not all proceeds from criminal activity are directly laundered into the formal financial system. Thus, informal diversification constitutes the process of moving illegal flows into the informal economy. It is estimated that 30% of the money to be laundered is used to pay the operating expenses of illicit economies. Cash transactions, divided into small amounts and deposited by “money mules,” are used to finance the hiring of precarious labor, accommodations, food, security, transportation, health services, leisure, and machinery, for example. The remaining 70% of illicit proceeds are formally inserted into the financial system. The study also recalls that the World Bank estimated in 2019 that governments lose between 6 and 9 billion dollars in tax revenue each year due to illegal logging. Similarly, other environmental crimes such as illegal mining, especially of gold and diamonds, generate between 12 and 48 billion dollars in revenue. In 2018, Interpol’s Global Illicit Flows Atlas found that illegal logging accounted for a percentage between 15% and 30% of the global timber trade, calculated between 51 billion and 152 billion dollars per year. The illegal logging industry is responsible for up to 90% of deforestation of tropical forests in African countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo. Combating illicit financial flows is a powerful tool for dismantling illegal economies. It becomes even more relevant when it is identified that illicit financial flows fuel an ecosystem of environmental crime composed of a convergence of environmental and non-environmental crimes, such as corruption, fraud, tax evasion, and others.
- Topic:
- Security, Environment, Financial Crimes, Money Laundering, and Illicit Financial Flows
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin
27. Trade Shocks and Social Mobility: The Intergenerational Effect of Import Competition in Brazil
- Author:
- Andrés César, Matias Ciaschi, Guillermo Falcone, and Guido Neidhöfer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates whether the impact of trade shocks on employment and wages persists across generations. Using an instrumental variable strategy on survey data with retrospective information on parental employment, we study the consequences of increased Chinese import competition in Brazilian industries on individuals with differently exposed fathers. Results show that several years after the shock, children of more exposed fathers have lower education and earnings, lower chances of formal jobs, and are more likely to rely on social assistance. These effects are substantial for children from disadvantaged background, indicating that the shock had a negative impact on intergenerational mobility.
- Topic:
- Trade, Imports, Economic Competition, and Social Mobility
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
28. The Impact of Robots in Latin America: Evidence from Local Labor Markets
- Author:
- Irene Brambilla, Andrés César, Guillermo Falcone, and Leonardo Gasparini
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- We study the effect of robots on labor markets in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, the major robot users in Latin America, during the period 2004{2016. We exploit spatial and time variations in exposure to robots arising from initial differences in industry specialization across geographic locations and the evolution of robot adoption across industries, to estimate a causal effect of robots on local labor market outcomes. We find that district’s exposure to robots causes a relative deterioration in labor market indicators such us unemployment and labor informality. We document that robots mainly replace formal salaried jobs, affecting young and semi-skilled workers to a greater extent, and that informal employment acts as a buffer that prevents a larger increase in unemployment.
- Topic:
- Unemployment, Robotics, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, and Mexico
29. The Technology Policies of Digital Middle Powers
- Author:
- Alice Pannier
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Digital technology is an element of power in the international system as well as an area for competition among countries. Considering the economic weight and political voluntarism of the U.S., China, and the EU, those three poles of power have received a lot of attention when it comes to their technology policies. This study aims to shift our gaze toward countries outside of the trio. Digital middle powers are those countries that are caught in the middle of the power play in an emerging multipolar international system where digital technology is a determining factor of power. It also refers to countries with established or growing clout in digital technology, and which are regional leaders or global ones in certain sectors. The study provides a qualitative comparison of the technology policies of nine of the digital middle powers: Brazil, India, Israel, Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, Russia, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. It seeks to reflect the diversity of national technology policies, as well as to identify those countries’ convergences and divergences with Europe, the United States, and China. Each case study introduces national technology and digital innovation ecosystems, data policies, and the state of digital infrastructure. These elements serve to examine the strengths of the country’s private sector in technology, the government’s regulatory capacity, and the degree of digital development. The chapters then look at how the digital domain is embedded in the broader dynamics of their bilateral relations with the U.S., the EU, and China. A first conclusion is that digital middle powers can usefully be differentiated between rising digital powers and established ones. Established digital powers have well-developed ecosystems, regulations, and infrastructure, but they are all having to renew and re-focus their technology policies to remain relevant. By contrast, rising digital powers tend to have budding ecosystems in digital services and mobile applications, and large ongoing infrastructure development projects, albeit with limited or patchy regulatory capacity. When it comes to foreign relations, the study confirms well-identified trends whereby the EU’s influence occurs chiefly through the elaboration of norms; the U.S.’s via the strength of its digital services and private sector investment, as well as strong bilateral security ties; while China’s growing influence is underpinned by large infrastructure projects. All the countries studied are attempting to balance their relationships with U.S., China, and the EU. None, save for Russia, has outrightly “picked a side” and severed ties with one or two of the blocs.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Strategic Competition, 5G, and Middle Power
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Russia, Japan, United Kingdom, India, Israel, South Korea, Brazil, and Nigeria
30. Amazonia on the Brink
- Author:
- Carlos Andrés Baquero Díaz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Our Summer 2023 issue of the NACLA Report brings movement voices together with research and analysis to lay out what’s at stake in the Amazon and how to avert a deeper crisis.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Human Rights, and Indigenous
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin
31. Transnational Guarani Land Defense and Solidarity
- Author:
- William Costa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Guarani community leaders from Brazil and Paraguay come together to strengthen alliances and share experiences of fighting for their ancestral territories.
- Topic:
- Solidarity, Land Rights, Indigenous, and Guarani
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Paraguay
32. Anarchists vs. the State
- Author:
- Kirwin Shaffer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- As Latin America swings left, activists keep alive a long anarchist tradition of critiquing the limits of state power. For them, the real alternatives are in communities, workplaces, and the streets.
- Topic:
- State, Anarchism, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Colombia, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile
33. Popular Organizing is the Only Way to Stop Bolsonarismo
- Author:
- Sabrina Fernandes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The essence of the phenomenon tied to Jair Bolsonaro’s rise is extreme, and it is a potent force for radicalizing people towards authoritarian and violent positions.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Radicalization, Violence, Jair Bolsonaro, and Community Organizing
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
34. “The Major Challenge to Brazilian Democracy Today Is Bolsonarismo”
- Author:
- Michael Fox
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the wake of the attack on Brasília, both the Lula administration and civil society have a major role to play in combatting the forces propelling Brazil’s far right.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Domestic Politics, Far Right, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
35. Brasília and Washington
- Author:
- Chris N. Lesser
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Beyond the parallels with the U.S. Capitol riot, the latest assault on Brazil’s democracy is marked by Washington’s long history of anti-democratic foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democracy, Jair Bolsonaro, January 6, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America
36. Brazil’s First-Ever Ministry of Indigenous Peoples Launched Amid a State of Emergency
- Author:
- Daniela Rebello
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Among the historic ministry's first challenges are a large-scale gold mining crackdown and an investigation of genocide against the Yanomami people.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Domestic Politics, Mining, Indigenous, and State of Emergency
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
37. Deadly Rio de Janeiro: Armed Violence and the Civilian Burden
- Author:
- Bhavani Castro and Julia Links Franciotti
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The public security situation in Brazil is complicated, and particularly in Rio de Janeiro state, which has high levels of violence and criminality. The presence of multiple different criminal groups fighting for territory, coupled with abusive government measures to tackle criminal activity, has created a deadly, high-risk environment for civilians in the state. In 2021, Rio de Janeiro registered 27 violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, a rate lower than states like Bahia and Ceará but significantly higher than the national average of 22. Rio de Janeiro also ranked first among Brazilian states in the number of deaths recorded during police interventions, with at least 1,356 people reportedly killed.1 In May 2021, for example, a police operation against drug traffickers in the Jacarezinho community in Rio de Janeiro city resulted in 29 reported fatalities. While authorities claimed that all those killed in the operation were linked to criminal groups, witnesses reported that police officers entered civilian houses and carried out extrajudicial executions.2 The Jacarezinho operation was the deadliest single event recorded by ACLED in Brazil in 2021. A year later, in May 2022, military and federal police forces clashed with the Red Command (CV) in the Vila Cruzeiro community in the Penha Complex, resulting in at least 26 reported fatalities, including civilians. These are not isolated incidents, but rather indicative of the increasing lethality of violence in Rio de Janeiro in 2021 and 2022, and the rising threat to civilians.
- Topic:
- Crime, Elections, Violence, Civilians, Militias, Gangs, and Public Security
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Rio de Janeiro
38. An imperative for women’s political leadership: Lessons from Brazil
- Author:
- Valentina Sader and Isabel Bernhard
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In politics and positions of power, the lack of equitable representation of women is striking. Women represent 49.7 percent of the world population, yet only twenty-seven countries have a female leader as of February 2023.2 Brazil, which elected its first and only woman president in 2011, has seen slow progress in ensuring greater female participation in politics. Political violence against women, among other factors, is a deterring factor for women’s political participation. Political violence is not a new phenomenon, nor it is exclusive to women. However, evolving analysis has identified differences between political violence generally and political violence against women. The latter is directed at women with the intent of restricting their political participation and active voice, while also generalizing women’s participation as “wrong.” In the Brazilian context, political violence against women is a “physical, psychological, economic, symbolic, or sexual aggression against women, with the purpose of preventing or restricting access to and exercise of public functions and/or inducing them to make decisions contrary to their will.” As such, political violence against women plays an important role in deterring women’s active participation in politics—and even more daunting for black, indigenous, or LGBTQI+ (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer) women. Brazil has a unique opportunity to adjust its legislation and reframe the incentives in the political sphere tackle this issue now, ahead of municipal elections in 2024. Doing so will ensure greater and more equitable political participation, enrich the political debate, strengthen the legislative agenda, and further solidify the country’s democratic ethos, even if other challenges to democracy remain. This report presents solutions Brazil could take to reach this more representative and resilient version of democracy.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Diplomacy, Politics, Elections, Women, Leadership, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Brazil, and Latin America
39. Fall 2023 edition of Strategic Visions
- Author:
- Debbie Sharnak, Gregory Urwin, Richard Immerman, and Beth Bailey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Strategic Visions
- Institution:
- Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
- Abstract:
- Contents: News from the Director……… 2 Note from the Davis Fellow…. 7 CENFAD Community Interviews Dr. Debbie Sharnak……. 8 Dr. Gregory Urwin……… 16 Dr. Richard Immerman.. 23 Dr. Beth Bailey……….... 33 Book Reviews Moral Majorities Across the Americas: Brazil, the United States, and the Creation of the Religious Right, reviewed by Lucas de Souza Martins…………………….. 41 Peruvian Foreign Policy in the Modern Era, reviewed by Casey VanSise…………………… 44 Freedom's Captives: Slavery and Gradual Emancipation on the Colombian Black Pacific, reviewed by Audrey Rankin............... 47
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, History, Slavery, Political Science, and Religious Right
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Colombia, and United States of America
40. Latin America and the ‘New Caucasus’: Linking Points Between Brazil and Azerbaijan
- Author:
- Roberto Rodolfo Georg Uebel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- For those arriving in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, after crossing the Atlantic Ocean and flying over war-torn Europe, in addition to the modern buildings along the Caspian Sea coast and the unique hospitality of its people, what stands out the most is the emerging ‘New Caucasus’ on the horizon. It is a region no longer constrained by the geopolitical, geoeconomic, and cultural ties to the old Eastern Europe and no longer overshadowed by historical hegemons like Russia (most recently) and Iran (previously). When I visited in 2022, I discovered a country, and a region, that masterfully coordinates a pragmatic foreign policy without relinquishing its Caucasian and Caspian values and roots, creating a unique political identity that, to some extent, resembles our Latin American political identity, of course bearing in mind the appropriate hemispheric and historical proportions. My observation is that Azerbaijan is emerging as a strategic actor in the Caspian Sea region as well as in the relations between Central Asia, the Caucasus, the European Union, and the Middle East.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Azerbaijan, Latin America, and South Caucasus