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2. Belarus: Country outlook
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
3. Belarus: Briefing sheet
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, Outlook, and Briefing sheet
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
4. Belarus: Political structure
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, and Political structure
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
5. The defeat of Russia in Ukraine will herald the defeat of the Lukashenko regime.
- Author:
- Svetlana Tikhanovskaia
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- What is the domestic political situation in Belarus? Has the government been weakened by its brutal and incessant repression? How is the population responding? The government has been weakened by the protest movement of the Belarusian population. It has chosen the path of repression instead of meeting the demands of the people and holding fair elections. It has been weakened. The government now has a very small toolbox. Only repression remains. Any easing in its stance will be a signal for people to launch further protests, even bigger than before. Because life has not improved. When you are at war with your own people all the time, your position is a weak one. And the gains here for the so-called government are not visible.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Authoritarianism, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Belarus
6. Trade Flows Between the European Union and the Eastern Partnership Countries: Dynamics and Prospects
- Author:
- Tomasz Grodzicki
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- The Eastern Partnership is a part of the European Neighbourhood Policy focusing on the EU’s Eastern neighbours. Its main objective is to deepen the political and economic integration of the EU with six countries in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The aim of this paper is to assess the development of EU trade relations with Eastern Partnership Countries from 2002 to 2021 and to indicate its prospects. The results show that the EU is in a group of main trading partners of the Eastern Partnership countries. The EU noticed both: a trade surplus with Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and Armenia (except in 2005); and a trade deficit with Azerbaijan. The volumes of imports and exports had increased over the years which also led to better economic integration with the EU. However, the future EU-Eastern Partnership trade characteristics and dynamics remain unknown due to the Russian invasion on Ukraine that caused troubles in trade flows in Ukraine and economic sanctions on Russia and Belarus.
- Topic:
- European Union, Partnerships, Exports, Trade, and Imports
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus
7. EU Security and Defence After Ukraine
- Author:
- Tony Lawrence and Louis Pernotte
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine has had profound impact on European and transatlantic security organisations. NATO has taken steps to strengthen its own deterrence and defence posture but, recognising the risk that the war may become or be portrayed as a NATO-Russia conflict, has carefully avoided a direct institutional response. The EU Member States have, by contrast, acted collectively against Russia, notably in implementing robust EU-wide sanctions and in using EU instruments to finance the delivery of lethal weapons to Ukraine. Through these actions, the EU has gone some way towards strengthening its geopolitical posture as envisaged in its most recent strategy document, the Strategic Compass. In this short series of briefs, we examine some aspects of the EU’s response to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The first brief looks at the Union’s immediate response to the war: its direct assistance to Ukraine and its sanctions against Russia and Belarus.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Sanctions, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Belarus
8. Designing Sanctions: Lessons from EU Restrictive Measures against Belarus
- Author:
- Yuliya Miadzvetskaya
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- The effectiveness and impact of sanctions are predetermined by how they are designed. This paper looks at the different elements in the design of European Union sanctions on Belarus in its different stages, their main pitfalls, and their potential effects on the country and its citizens. Several key elements are important for the design of sanctions: the triggering situation, the type of sanctions, the clarity of objectives and targets, the evidence for listings, and the conditions for review. They are crucial for explaining the mismatch between the objectives of EU sanctions and their limited impact. The gravity of the situation that triggers the introduction of sanctions is closely linked to the type of restrictive measures that will be chosen by the EU. Threats to EU and regional security as well as to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of its neighbors result in more complex measures, including sectoral economic sanctions, export restrictions, and flight bans. In the case of Belarus, broader economic measures were enacted in response to growing security threats to the EU and its partners. An analysis of EU sanctions on Belarus, including their cyclical nature, suggests that they have been most effective when their objective is limited and achievable. The release of political prisoners, cosmetic reforms to the Electoral Code, and the partial solution of the migration crisis are the most obvious examples of concessions that were made by the Belarusian authorities following the imposition of sanctions. Overly ambitious sanctions objectives limit the EU’s room for maneuver and bargaining. Bringing to justice those responsible for forced disappearances and human-rights violations or holding new free and fair elections are inacceptable demands for the Belarusian regime because they endanger its survival as it relies on the law-enforcement institutions. The effects of sanctions also depend on whom can be added on sanctions lists. Listing or designation criteria define conditions under which someone can be targeted. Those for Belarus were significantly updated in 2021 and now target those responsible for violations of human rights and election falsification, entities and persons benefitting from the regime, and those responsible for the forced landing of a Ryanair plane, the instrumentalization of the migration crisis, and Belarus’s involvement in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The broadening of the listing criteria increases the sanctioning power of the EU and paves the way for the extension of sanctions listings. The EU enacts sanctions by providing a statement of reasons that must come under the listing criteria and be substantiated with sufficient evidence for each listing. Based on EU sanctions-related case law, sanctions are designed in a way that takes into consideration the due-process rights of targeted individuals and entities. The EU Council has deployed a degree of legal gymnastics in crafting its sanctions on Belarus to increase their traction, notably by using the broad concepts of “support” for and “benefit” from the regime’s actions. Conditions for the review of sanctions are construed as requirements addressed to the targeted state. The fulfillment of these or some variation in the behavior of the target could trigger the partial suspension or the lifting of restrictive measures. Those conditions in EU sanctions against Belarus are sometimes included in EU legal acts and sometimes in other political statements. Clear-cut conditions for reviewing sanctions would help in improving their effects. The paper concludes with suggestions regarding the EU sanctions policy toward Belarus, notably with respect to national bias and to the need for a proper prior impact assessment, realistic objectives, clear communication, and more leverage for the EU.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Belarus
9. Before the Invasion: The Russian-Belarusian Allied Resolve Exercises
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 10-20 February, Belarus hosted the active phase of the Belarusian-Russian manoeuvres Allied Resolve, after which Russian troops remained in the country. The drills preceded the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started on 24 February. The scenario was an extension of last year’s Zapad exercises and simulated actions against the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank and Ukraine. The manoeuvres showed Russia’s ability to deploy units over long distances (more than 10,000 km) and the high interoperability of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces. The growing military integration of Belarus and Russia, along with the decision to leave Russian military units in Belarus, is a challenge for NATO in the context of defending its Eastern Flank and its policy towards Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Conflict, and Military Exercises
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Belarus
10. Austrian Migration Policy and the Events in Afghanistan and Belarus
- Author:
- Łukasz Ogrodnik
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Contrary to the government’s rhetoric about restrictive migration policy, Austria remains open to the settlement of people from outside the EU. The takeover of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 and the intensifying crisis on the border between EU countries and Belarus stimulated the Austrian government in international forums in the field of migration. The prospects for cooperation with the V4 countries in this regard were heightened after interior minister Karl Nehammer was elevated to Chancellor.
- Topic:
- Government, International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, Austria, and Belarus
11. Belarus's Reaction to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- From the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities have sided with Russia, supporting it politically and militarily, including making its territory available to the Russian troops. In this way, Belarus is also an aggressor and, as a consequence, the EU and the U.S. have imposed further sanctions on it. Regardless of the attempts to engage in Ukrainian-Russian negotiations, Belarus will be negatively affected by the consequences of its government’s policy and the country, although formally sovereign, has ceased to be perceived as an independent entity in international relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Sovereignty, War, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus
12. Stolen decades: the unfulfilled expectations of the Belarusian economic miracle
- Author:
- Aleś Alachnovič and Julia Korosteleva
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- The case of the Belarusian economy has puzzled many academic scholars for years. Belarus has often been referred to as a transition outlier, given its relatively fast recovery in 1996 and spectacular growth prior to the global financial crisis without much transformation of its economy. Three decades after gaining its independence, the state control of the economy still remains considerably high. Subsidized financing of state-owned enterprises allowed to preserve production capabilities over the first decade, to achieve some productivity gains in the late 1990s–early 2000s, and to avoid social destabilization. However, with a delay in structural reforms, this economic model, also heavily dependent on the Russian subsidies and foreign debt, has become fatigue, driving the economy into stagnation in the 2010s. The Covid-19 pandemic, the 2020 post-presidential political crisis and Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022 put further strains on the economy, calling for change. This working paper gives an overview of the Belarusian economic developments before the presidential elections to have a better understanding of how various rigidities of the Belarusian economic model have amplified the detrimental effect of the political unrest for the economy and the Belarusian society overall, and discusses the anticrisis and mid-term economic reforms Belarus will have to undergo.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Labor Issues, Economy, Social Policy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Belarus
13. Quo Vadis, Belarus?
- Author:
- Zoran Meter
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- Year 2021 was one of the most turbulent for Belarus since its independence after the collapse of the USSR. In the West Belarus is sometimes called the “European North the global economic crisis in 2008 without too many problems and internal turmoil. Belarus has also successfully overcome problems with its neighbor the Russian Federation caused by Korea” and its longtime president Alexander Lukashenko, whom the West no longer recognizes, is dubbed “Europe’s Last Dictator.” Although this country is still to a large extent dug in its communist past, it has overcome disputes related to the content and dynamics of the implementation of the establishment of a Federal State between Belarus and Russia to which they previously committed.
- Topic:
- Economics, Governance, Leadership, Dictatorship, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
14. Mid-Year Update: 10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2021
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In ACLED’s special report on 10 conflicts to worry about at the start of 2021, we identified a range of flashpoints and emerging crises where violent political disorder was likely to evolve or worsen over the course of the year: Ethiopia, India & Pakistan, Myanmar, Haiti, Belarus, Colombia, Armenia & Azerbaijan, Yemen, Mozambique, and the Sahel.1 Our mid-year update revisits these 10 cases, tracking key developments in political violence and protest activity during the first half of 2021 and analyzing trends to watch in the coming months.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Conflict, Protests, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, India, Yemen, Colombia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Haiti, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Belarus, Sahel, and Global Focus
15. Biden and Belarus: A strategy for the new administration
- Author:
- Anders Åslund, Melinda Haring, John Herbst, and Alexander Vershbow
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- United States President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has an historic opportunity to bring Europe together and reverse the tide of dictatorship by building an international coalition to support democracy in Belarus. In 2020, Belarusians unexpectedly called Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s legitimacy into question in the country’s August presidential election. Lukashenka brazenly rigged the results, claiming that he took 80 percent of the vote, but neither the United States nor the European Union (EU) recognizes his victory. A months-long protest movement has coalesced that demands new elections under the supervision of the international community. Recent years have seen no better chance for US leadership to facilitate lasting positive change in Europe than the crisis in Belarus. But how to secure democratic change in Belarus is not simple given internal resistance and Moscow’s determination to prevent another “color revolution.” Lukashenka is likely finished, unable to restore any authority or legitimacy. But he is seeking to hang on despite Moscow’s efforts to arrange a pliable replacement who would preserve Minsk’s pro-Russian orientation. Managing Moscow’s efforts to prevent an aroused citizenry from choosing their own leader is no easy task. Russia remains the key geopolitical player in Belarus, often plays the long game, and may be willing to countenance military options that the United States cannot. Perhaps the key fact is that Belarusians have made it amply clear that they want accountable leaders that they can choose and dismiss for themselves. More than thirty thousand peaceful protesters have been detained since August, more than three hundred and fifty police officers have defected, and ordinary Belarusians are no longer afraid to voice their opposition to the regime. Kremlin support for the ongoing repression risks turning the Belarusian people—historically friendly toward Russia—in a pro-European direction. These changes in Belarus are something that Moscow cannot ignore, and the United States and its allies must nourish and strengthen them in consistent ways that avoid and deter a Kremlin overreaction. Biden, with his long experience promoting US values and interests and his determination to strengthen transatlantic relations, is ideally situated to promote clear support for the people of Belarus that does not directly challenge Moscow’s security interests.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, Sanctions, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Belarus, and United States of America
16. Belarus in Turkey's Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Karol Wasilewski
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s actions towards Belarus show that the country plays a greater role in Turkish foreign policy than bilateral relations might suggest. It would be beneficial for Turkey’s Western allies, including Poland, to take this factor into account in the dialogue with their Turkish partner on the political use of the migration through the Belarusian-Polish border by Alexander Lukashenka’s regime and on the political situation in Belarus.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Bilateral Relations, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Poland, and Belarus
17. Russian and Belarusian Disinformation and Propaganda in the Context of the Polish-Belarusian Border Crisis
- Author:
- Agnieszka Legucka and Filip Bryjka
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia and Belarus are consistent in their narrative regarding the recent border crisis. They accuse EU and NATO members, mainly Poland and Lithuania, of failing to respect international law and lacking humanity. This is aimed at discrediting Euro-Atlantic structures and weakening Polish and Lithuanian influence on NATO and EU eastern policy. The Belarusian-Russian propaganda particularly invokes charges of hypocrisy and “double standards” on the part of the EU, which challenges the management and resolution of the border crisis.
- Topic:
- NATO, Migration, Borders, Propaganda, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Belarus
18. The Belarusian Revolution of 2020: Afterword
- Author:
- Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Belarusian Revolution challenged the Lukashenka regime but did not bring it down. It is, however, clear that the structural factors behind the revolution have been sustained. The West should increase efforts to achieve political and economic transformation in the country.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Revolution, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
19. Belarus Goes Nuclear: Context and Prospects of the Astravyets NPP
- Author:
- Yuri Tsarik
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- On 7 November 2020, the president of Belarus, Aleksander Lukashenko, visited the Astravyets Nuclear Power Plant (Astravyets NPP) and dubbed its pending commissioning a “historic moment” for Belarus. Despite several incidents during the tests in late 2020 and early 2021 that prompted shutdowns of the reactor, the first unit was reconnected to Belarus’s power grid at full nominal capacity on 21 January 2021. The Astravyets NPP launch took place amid the worst political crisis in the country’s history. Following a rigged presidential election in August 2020 and violent suppression of the ensuing protests, the Belarusian authorities found themselves lacking legitimacy domestically and facing mounting political and economic pressure internationally. These events, and the choices made in response to them, are reshaping the geopolitical and geoeconomic context in which the plant will operate and thus are affecting the prospects of the entire project.
- Topic:
- Economics, Nuclear Power, Elections, Geopolitics, Legitimacy, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Belarus
20. Rosatom in Europe: Russia’s Trojan Horse?
- Author:
- Tomas Janeliūnas, Yuri Tsarik, and Andrea Bonelli
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- The national security aspects of nuclear energy have long been sidelined, overshadowed by the much larger geopolitical interest in gas and oil. However, Russia’s state-owned nuclear corporation, Rosatom, which is pursuing various opportunities in Europe and globally, has become part of Russia’s broader strategy to rebuild its geopolitical influence. According to some recent estimates, Russia has spent over $92 billion to support this prong of its strategy over the last ten years. The European Union (EU), however, is not fully cognisant of or properly postured to address the geopolitical and security risks accompanying Moscow’s use of Rosatom to advance its strategic interests.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, European Union, Resilience, and Hybrid Threats
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Lithuania, Belarus, and Baltic States
21. Zapad 2021 and Russia’s Potential for Warfighting
- Author:
- Johan Norberg and Natalie Simpson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- According to press information, on 10 September 2021, the Russian Armed Forces plan to start the one-week-long active phase of this year’s annual strategic-level exercise (STRATEX), Zapad (West) 2021, a bilateral large-scale Russo-Belorussian strategic-level exercise, primarily in Belarus and Russia’s Western Military District (MD, see map 1). Large-scale Russian exercises understandably attract much attention and speculation both in Russia and abroad. Most Western comments about Zapad 2017 addressed Russian and international political aspects and detailed several capabilities employed in the exercise and its scenarios or steps and phases. Few, if any, addressed what it meant for the potential of Russian forces to fight wars, which these exercises are all about actually. Russia’s warfighting potential is important for the West writ large for several reasons. Tensions between Russia and NATO are increasing. Russia perceives a growing military threat in its west. Russian strategic documents re-emphasise the importance of military power. Russia actually uses military force to achieve its geopolitical goals, such as in Eastern Ukraine and in Syria.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and Belarus
22. Migration, Borders, and the EU’s Capacity to Act
- Author:
- Roderick Parkes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- This in-depth monitoring study assesses the EU’s capacity to handle migration. Why does the European Union respond so badly to migration crises? And why does it repeatedly allow itself to be blackmailed by neighboring states which extract concessions in return for holding back migrants? The ongoing situation at the EU’s border to Belarus is no isolated incident. It reveals vulnerabilities resulting directly from the way the EU regulates its borders and international migration. Over the past decade, a pattern has emerged: the more the EU tries to defend the Schengen Area, its passport-free travel zone, the more vulnerable it makes itself.
- Topic:
- Migration, European Union, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
23. To Grow or Not to Grow: Belarus and Lithuania
- Author:
- Thorvaldur Gylfason and Eduard Hochreiter
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- We compare the economic growth performance of Belarus and Lithuania since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Our interest in this country pair is driven by the two countries´ interwoven histories as well as by the fact that Belarus remains autocratic and strongly tied to Russia, while Lithuania has reinvented itself as a democratic market economy fully integrated into the EU. Our aim is to better understand the extent to which the growth differential between the two countries can be traced to increased efficiency, i.e., total factor productivity, in the use of capital and other resources via, inter alia, better institutions (intensive growth) as opposed to sheer accumulation of capital (extensive growth), the hallmark of Soviet economic growth. To this end, we compare the development of some key determinants of growth in the two countries since the 1990s. A simple growth accounting model suggests that advances in education at all levels, good governance, and institutional reforms have played a more significant role in raising economic output and efficiency in Lithuania than in Belarus, which remains marred by problems related to weak governance as well as autocratic rule. Further, as in Estonia and Latvia, the EU perspective has made a significant contribution to growth in Lithuania. The Russian connection has done less for Belarus. Finally, we touch upon the impact of the corona virus on the economies of the two countries.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, Post-Soviet Space, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Lithuania, and Belarus
24. Belarus’s Weaponization of Migration Should Make Us Reevaluate the Extent of Crimes Against Humanity and Human Rights
- Author:
- Peter Pinto
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on International Policy (CIP)
- Abstract:
- Facing temperatures below freezing and bitter winter conditions, thousands of Middle Eastern and African migrants currently remain trapped between the tumultuous borders of Belarus and its EU neighbors. Many humanitarian groups have warned of imminent danger to the migrants if this humanitarian crisis, which has seen nearly 30,000 migrants attempt to illegally cross the Polish border since August, is not quickly resolved. Despite genuine reasons for their journey, the migrants have become unsuspecting pawns in an ever-growing political chess game between Belarus and its EU neighbors. More specifically, Belarus and its President Aleksander Lukashenko are being accused of facilitating and weaponizing such migration in an attempt to punish their geopolitical rivals in the EU. The accusations are relatively well-founded considering the litany of different immigration policies adopted by Belarusian authorities in recent months, including granting visas to migrants upon arrival and escorting migrants to the Polish border. Furthermore, many view this targeted influx of migrants as political retaliation for EU sanctions against Belarus for election fraud and repression of civil rights. Perhaps in hopes of destabilizing his enemies or deterring future sanctions, President Lukashenko is using migrants and their pursuit for safety as weapons in his geopolitical war against the West. Despite his already lackluster record in humanitarian governance, this blatant indifference for migrant safety represents an escalation in his disregard for human rights. If we are to deter other authoritarian leaders from employing such inhumane tactics in the future, then we must recognize the weaponization of migration streams as a crime against humanity and a violation of human rights.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Crimes Against Humanity, Humanitarian Crisis, and Migrants
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
25. The Future of the Eurasian Economic Union
- Author:
- Katia Glod
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) was established in 2015 and incorporates five countries of the former Soviet bloc—Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The declared goal of the project was to create a common market with 180 million consumers, coordinate economic policies, and eliminate non-tariff barriers. The idea behind the EAEU was to revive the economic ties that had broken down when the Soviet Union dissolved by facilitating better growth and more trade. Its member states claimed that the EAEU would emulate the European Union (EU) by adopting a system based on clear and transparent rules to promote free trade. The reality, however, is proving different. So far, the EAEU has failed to transform into a full-fledged economic union. Many outstanding issues require greater political will from the member states to work out common approaches and practices.
- Topic:
- Economics, Tariffs, Free Trade, and Soviet Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Belarus
26. In search of new opportunities. Circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic
- Author:
- Agnieszka Kulesa, Piotr Kaźmierkiewicz, Ivan Lichner, Šárka Prát, Marek Radvanský, and Andrei Yeliseyeu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- We are pleased to present the report on circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. It is the product of a fruitful collaboration between four research institutions – Warsaw-based CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, CASE Belarus, the Institute for Politics and Society (Czech Republic), and the Institute of Economic Research, SAS (Slovakia). The partners teamed up to implement the project “CIRCMIGR: Improving circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia”. Additionally, Youth Labour Rights, an NGO based in Belarus, was responsible for launching and maintaining a website addressed to Belarusians interested in working in Poland, Slovakia, or the Czech Republic. The implementation of this project was possible thanks to co-financing from the governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The report examines the social and economic drivers and impact of circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. The core question the authors sought to address was how managing circular migration could, in the long term, help to optimise labour resources in both the country of origin and the destination countries. In the pages that follow, the authors of the report present the current and forecasted labour market and demographic situation in their respective countries as well as the dynamics and characteristics of short-term labour migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, concentrating on the period since 2010. They also outline and discuss related policy responses and evaluate prospects for cooperation on circular migration. Circular migration flows between the countries examined in the report were affected by two events that occurred in 2020. The first was the COVID-19 pandemic. The worldwide spread of the coronavirus caused three major shocks – to public health systems, to states’ economies, and to the global financial system. The pandemic also temporarily closed borders and essentially stopped international migration. These measures, together with the border restrictions and lockdown measures which followed the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, have affected circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic as well. Surprisingly, in the case of Poland, however, this influence was limited in time and related only to the first months of the pandemic (March-April 2020). In fact, 2020 was the sixth consecutive year since 2014 during which the number of documents issued to Belarusian nationals as part of the simplified system of employing foreign nationals in Poland increased. Longer-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on circular migration patterns and related policies are yet to be seen, but preliminary observations are presented in the respective chapters. The second event that occurred in 2020 which affected circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic was the Belarusian presidential election held in August. The announcement of the official results, according to which Alexander Lukashenko could commence his sixth term in office as the president of Belarus, provoked political demonstrations and mass anti-government protests across the country. As a result, officially due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Belarusian government closed land border crossings for people wishing to leave the country from 21 December 2020 until further notice. This issue, as it is rather recent and thus difficult to evaluate fully, is just signalled in the report. The report is divided into five main parts. It starts with the executive summary, which discusses the concept of circular migration and synthesises the main findings of the country chapters. The country-specific section includes a chapter concentrated on Belarus, followed by chapters dedicated to the Visegrad Group countries under study – Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Each country chapter ends with a set of recommendations addressed to policy makers. Notes on the contributors can be found at the end of the report.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Migration, Labor Issues, Social Policy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Belarus
27. The State and Future of U.S.-Belarus Relations
- Author:
- Andrzej Dąbrowski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The development of U.S.-Belarus relations has been hampered by the events following the Belarusian presidential election in August 2020. In response to the Lukashenka regime’s violation of human rights, the U.S. extended a set of sanctions against the country and will most likely reinstate suspended economic restrictions. At the same time, the Biden administration will expand support for civil society, which creates a point of cooperation with Poland and the EU to coordinate aid activities and build international support for democratic changes in Belarus.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, North America, Belarus, and United States of America
28. Belarus: Half a Year of Protests
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since the rigged presidential elections in August 2020, the public protests against Alexander Lukashenka have continued. The Belarusian authorities have responded with repression, detaining protesters and independent journalists. Despite Lukashenka’s calls to reform the constitution, he also tries to postpone this process. The European Union should increase its support to civil society and keep demanding the Belarusian authorities respect human rights.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Rights, European Union, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Belarus
29. The Eastern Partnership: Three dilemmas in a time of troubles
- Author:
- Bob Deen and Wouter Zweers
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- In early 2021 a new Eastern Partnership (EaP) Summit will take place between the European Union and the six countries in its eastern neighbourhood: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. After over a decade, the ambitious objectives of the EU’s Eastern Partnership policy to deliver ‘stability, security and prosperity’ to the region remain far from reality. Democratization and good governance reforms have been stalled by vested interests in Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, while Azerbaijan and Belarus have remained outright autocratic, and the latter faces sustained domestic protests. The EaP faces geopolitical pushback by an increasingly assertive Russian Federation and the region is further affected by multiple protracted and ongoing conflicts, including the recent bitter war over Nagorno-Karabakh. But despite its shortcomings, the EaP is not without successes, especially but not only in the economic sphere. The EU has also managed to keep the door open for conversation, spurred lower-level reform and provided civil society support. As such, the EaP has an important role to play in the policy of the Netherlands towards the region, especially in light of recent requests by the Dutch Parliament to formulate an Eastern Europe strategy. But many thorny questions remain in the run-up to the summit. This report assesses three policy dilemmas that need to be considered by the Netherlands and the European Union in order to make the EaP more effective. First, the EU needs to reconcile its geopolitical interests with its normative aspirations. Second, the added value of the EaP’s multilateral track should be deliberated with consideration of the differentiation in bilateral relations with EaP countries. Third, the EU will need to consider how to deal with protracted conflicts, hybrid threats, and other security challenges in the EaP region.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Governance, Authoritarianism, Reform, European Union, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus
30. An Ever Closer Union? Ramifications of further integration between Belarus and Russia
- Author:
- Bob Deen, Sam Roggeveen, and Wouter Zweers
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Union State of Russia and Belarus was forged in the 1990s through a series of bilateral treaties but has largely remained a paper tiger – at least until now. For well over two decades Belarusian President Lukashenko has had a complicated love-hate relationship with the Kremlin, milking the Russian Federation for energy subsidies and other economic benefits while simultaneously zealously guarding his country’s sovereignty and shielding its state-owned enterprises from Russian takeovers. Although co-operation in the military domain has advanced considerably, the more far-reaching provisions of the Union State, such as a joint constitution, monetary union and a single energy market, have never materialized. While Belarus has generally aligned its foreign policy outlook with the Russian Federation and acceded to the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, at various moments Lukashenko tried to keep his geopolitical options open as his relations with the Kremlin deteriorated. Among other things, he sought closer relations with the European Union following the 2008 Georgia conflict and the 2014 Ukraine crisis. The EU, in turn, has alternated between defending its democratic values by imposing sanctions on Lukashenko and his regime for human rights abuses, and then lifting those again a few years later, hoping to lure Belarus away from Russia’s sphere of influence. These hopes proved to be in vain. The Presidential elections of August 2020 and their repressive aftermath have again led to a turning point in Belarus’ relations with the West and with the Russian Federation. Relying on Russian support to remain in power and facing a series of European sanctions, Lukashenko is now again under pressure by the Kremlin to make far-reaching concessions and to advance the integration of Belarus and Russia within the Union State framework. As both the stability of the Lukashenko regime and the outcome of the integration process remain uncertain, this report identifies six scenarios for the future of Belarus and further elaborates the consequences of four of them.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Military Affairs, European Union, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and Belarus
31. The impact of EU sanctions on Belarus will be limited
- Author:
- Izabela Surwillo
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The current Belarusian crisis was set off by a disputed presidential election on 9 August 2020, which gave Alexander Lukashenko his sixth term in office. Once again, the EU’s capacity for leadership was put to the test. When faced with the escalating post-election crisis in Belarus, the EU acted relatively fast, and after attempts to establish a dialogue failed, first sanctions followed in October 2020. The sanctions policy sent a signal to the Belarusian regime that EU member states can reach a common agreement. However, according to regional experts, the sanctions should have been broader and implemented earlier to show support for Belarusian society. Tougher sanctions were introduced when a Ryanair flight was forced to land in Minsk in May 2021. The extended sanctions package that followed increased the targeting of financial assets and state companies that are important contributors to the Belarusian state’s budget. Broader personal and sectoral sanctions hit Belarusian national industry and Alexander Lukashenko’s immediate political circles. In response, he has engineered a migration crisis on the EU’s external border in Poland, Lithuania and Latvia that is destabilising the security situation in the region. The effectiveness of the new sanctions remains limited, as even those high state officials who have been targeted generally do not travel extensively or hold assets abroad. Moreover, while some of the sectoral sanctions are particularly aggravating to, for example, Belarusian transportation and logistics sectors (e.g., banning air carriers such as Belavia), they have sometimes targeted companies that do not have very strong trading links with the West, but that cooperate extensively with Russia (e.g., the production of machines for exports to the east). There are also numerous loopholes in the sanction’s regime (e.g., exceptions made for imports of potash fertilizers) that undermine its effectiveness and have been blamed on certain lobby groups in Europe connected to businesses that trade with the Belarusian regime. Furthermore, loopholes seem to have been left in place intentionally to leave room for future dialogue with Belarus.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
32. World economy: Liquidity injections buy time for vulnerable economies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Finance outlook
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Japan, China, Sudan, Indonesia, Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova, Canada, India, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Kuwait, Tajikistan, France, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Yemen, Sri Lanka, Germany, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, Romania, Hungary, Australia, Albania, Italy, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Mexico, Jordan, Bahrain, Singapore, Tunisia, Chile, Oman, Angola, Zambia, Ghana, New Zealand, Ecuador, Malawi, Namibia, Mauritius, Panama, Belarus, United States of America, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Seychelles, Democratic Republic of Congo, UK, Russian Federation, Syrian Arab Republic, Tanzania, United Republic of, Venezuela, and Bolivarian Republic of
33. Belarus without Lukashenko: How it became a realistic scenario
- Author:
- Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Alexander Lukashenko’s “victory” in the election cannot bridge the gap between the president and the modern part of Belarusian society. Turbulent times may lie ahead for Belarus. This will require the West to revise its current approach and invest more in supporting forces that want reforms and the country’s Europeanization.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Europeanization, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Belarus
34. Under Pressure: Can Belarus resist Russian coercion?
- Author:
- Anaïs Marin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Belarus is traditionally considered to be Russia’s closest ally, and their alliance is a cornerstone of post-Soviet integration projects, both military (the Collective Security Treaty Organisation - CSTO) and economic (the Eurasian Economic Union - EAEU). But bilateral relations have entered a different and more conflictual phase. The paradigm shift started in 2014, when Belarus invoked its constitutional neutrality pledge to refuse to side with Russia in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine and the West. Playing this card allowed President Lukashenka to appear as a security guarantor both in the eyes of Belarusians and the West. Irritated by such autonomy, Moscow indicated that it now wants more for its money. Russia is no longer ready to subsidise the Belarusian economy in exchange for its neighbour’s fleeting geopolitical loyalty. In linking, in 2018, the resumption of economic privileges to ‘deeper’ political integration within the Union State that the two countries nominally established 20 years ago, Russia stepped up the pressure. Yet Vladimir Putin made Belarus an offer he knew Aliaksandr Lukashenka would refuse: the Belarusian president had repeatedly stated that Belarus’s sovereignty was ‘not for sale’. Given its dependence on Russia and current economic hardships, Belarus might not be able to resist Moscow’s ‘coercion to integrate’, however. Its capacity to uphold its sovereignty is being challenged from outside, while Lukashenka’s regime survival is under stress from within: in the wake of the 9 August presidential election, unprecedented opposition forces emerged which the Belarusian regime started cracking down on.1 Should repression intensify, leading the West to reintroduce sanctions, Minsk’s efforts of the past years towards normalising relations with Brussels and Washington would come to nothing. Yet renewed (self-)isolation of Belarus is exactly what Russia needs to reach its strategic goal of keeping Belarus in its orbit, and extract more concessions from its fragile leadership. This presents the EU with a dilemma it knows all too well: how can it support Belarus’s efforts to preserve its independence, without increasing the resilience of Lukashenka’s authoritarian regime or making Russia more assertive?
- Topic:
- European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Belarus
35. China’s policy towards Belarus and Ukraine: A limited challenge to Sino-Russian relations
- Author:
- Ryhor Nizhnikau and Marcin Kaczmarski
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China traditionally pursued a pragmatic foreign poli- cy in the post-Soviet region, which was never seen as a priority in Beijing. It primarily based its policies on economic engagement with the local elite, who sought sources of politically unconditional loans and invest- ment, as well as the possibility to hedge their foreign policies vis-à-vis other regional powers. A growing economic presence promoted Chinese core interests in the region without challenging Russia’s political pre-eminence in the region and jeopardizing Rus- sia-China relations. However, in recent years, two factors have afect- ed the status quo and have led to greater engagement in the region by China. First, the region became an important part of China’s Silk Road Economic Belt, and Belarus and/or Ukraine became a transport hub between China and the EU. Second, Russia’s policies turned more assertive towards its neighbourhood, whereas the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood policies lost steam after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine confict in 2014. Te new regional environment and domestic instabilities duly increased the importance of China for local elites. This Briefing Paper overviews the evolution of China’s cooperation with Belarus and Ukraine since 2013. One of the results has been a growing contrast in Chinese relations with Belarus and Ukraine. While China-Ukraine relations were driven by economic co- operation and a tremendous growth in bilateral trade, their political relations stagnated. China-Belarus rela- tions, on the other hand, have increasingly prioritized enhanced political and defence cooperation, despite consistent attempts by the Belarusian side to build up a Chinese economic presence in the country. Te paper argues that China deliberately opts to steer clear of power competition in the region and chooses to recognize both Russian special interests in the region and countries’ own foreign policy choices, be they integration with the EU or Russia. In Belarus and Ukraine, Beijing seems to exercise self-restraint in its policy, taking Russia’s interests into consider- ation. However, its growing presence in economic and cultural spheres as well as local elites’ increasing interest in engaging China in manoeuvring in the EU-Russia confict creates a window of opportunity for Beijing to apply its increasing economic and po- litical resources for political ends in the long-term perspective.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Belarus
36. The Structure of Government Elites within the Regime of Alaksandar Lukashenka
- Author:
- Francisak Viacorka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- Belarus under the authoritarian rule of President Alaksandar Lukashenka claims the status as the last free country in Europe1. In contrast to neighboring Ukraine, Russia, and the Baltic States, no structural reforms have been implemented in Belarus: the system of power remains strictly centralized; the government replicates the Soviet vertical system with its multiple bureaucratized ministries and departments; the economy is mainly state- owned, and the opposition is excluded from all state institutions and the government. The personalistic dictatorship of Lukashenka who has uncompetitively remained in power since 1994, lets neither politicians nor officials accumulate sufficient economic or political power. The bureaucracy in Belarus is formed primarily of people who demonstrate full loyalty to the regime. This makes the cabinet of ministers a purely technical, not political body. However, could not this be the evidence of its unprofessionalism? The research statement of the current paper is that Belarus government appointees and bureaucrats take their offices according to their experience and competence, not only because of their personal or political ties. In particular, I assume that for an absolute ma- jority of ministry staffers their way to power was paved with specialized education and professional careers in their area, and later they were appointed to leading positions in the Government or state-building institutions without building political careers.
- Topic:
- Governance, Authoritarianism, Reform, Leadership, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
37. The Impact of the EAEU-Iran Preferential Trade Agreement
- Author:
- Amat Adarov and Mahdi Ghodsi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- The preferential trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Iran on mutual trade entered into force in October 2019. In this report we estimate its expected impact at aggregate and sectoral levels using the gravity model of trade based on the global sample of bilateral trade flows at the HS 6-digit level. The analysis suggests that the implementation of the agreement will boost mutual trade for both trading partners, with relatively greater gains expected for the EAEU’s exports to Iran. On aggregate, the total gains in mutual trade are estimated to reach almost USD 46 million, with exports from the EAEU to Iran expected to increase by 9.7%, compared with a rise in exports from Iran to the EAEU of up to 4%. The difference in the impact will also be significant across the five EAEU countries as well as across sectors, with the major export gains expected to accrue in the chemicals and agri-food sectors, especially trade in miscellaneous fruits and vegetables, as well as in the textile, polymer production and metals sectors.
- Topic:
- Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Global Political Economy, Exports, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Belarus
38. The evolution of Belarusian public sector: From command economy to state capitalism?
- Author:
- Aliaksandr Papko
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- Belarus was among the few post-communist countries to resign from comprehensive market reforms and attempt to improve the efficiency of the economy through administrative means, leaving market mechanisms only an auxiliary role. Since its inception, the ‘Belarusian economic model’ has undergone several revisions of a de-statisation and de-regulation kind, but still the Belarusian economy remains dominated by the state. This paper analyses the characteristic features of the Belarusian economic system – especially those related to the public sector – as well as its evolution over time during the period following its independence. The paper concludes that during the post-Soviet period, the Belarusian economy evolved from a quasi-Soviet system based on state property, state planning, support to inefficient enterprises and the massive redistribution of funds to a more flexible hybrid model where the public sector still remains the core of the economy. The case of Belarus shows that presently there is no appropriate theoretical perspective which, in an unmodified form, could be applied to study this type of economic system. Therefore, a new perspective based on an already existing but updated approach or a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates the duality of the Belarusian economy is required.
- Topic:
- Reform, Economy, Economic Growth, Public Sector, Trade, and State Capitalism
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Belarus
39. 30 Years of Economic Transformation in CEE: Key Five Lessons For Belarus
- Author:
- Aleś Alachnovič, Andrzej Raczko, Izabela Styczynska, Jarosław Neneman, Kateryna Karunska, Krzysztof Głowacki, Pawel Swianiewicz, and Sierž Naŭrodski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- Belarusian economy has been stagnating in 2011-2015 after 15 years of a high annual average growth rate. In 2015, after four years of stagnation, the Belarusian economy slid into a recession, its first since 1996, and experienced both cyclical and structural recessions. Since 2015, the Belarusian government and the National Bank of Belarus have been giving economic reforms a good chance thanks to gradual but consistent actions aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and economic liberalization. It seems that the economic authorities have sustained more transformation efforts during 2015-2018 than in the previous 24 years since 1991. As the relative welfare level in Belarus is currently 64% compared to the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries average, Belarus needs to build stronger fundaments of sustainable growth by continuing and accelerating the implementation of institutional transformation, primarily by fostering elimination of existing administrative mechanisms of inefficient resource allocation. Based on the experience of the CEE countries’ economic transformation, we highlight five lessons for the purpose of the economic reforms that Belarus still faces today: keeping macroeconomic stability, restructuring and improving the governance of state-owned enterprises, developing the financial market, increasing taxation efficiency, and deepening fiscal decentralization.
- Topic:
- Economics, Governance, Economic Growth, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Belarus
40. Public Relations and Realities of the Belarusian Crisis
- Author:
- Grigory Ioffe
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Popular narrative tropes are not always accurate predictors of how a story will ultimately develop. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the former presidential hopeful and a person believed by many to have won the presidential elections of August 9, is widely seen as a positive character in the unfolding Belarusian drama. Courageous and likable, she does her best to rally international support for the protest movement in her home country.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Elections, Protests, and Public Relations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Belarus
41. Compounded Crisis in Belarus: Drivers, Dynamics, and Possible Outcomes?
- Author:
- Pal Dunay and Graeme P. Herd
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Until 2014, Belarus had embraced its Soviet legacy identity. After the Russian annexation of Crimea and its subsequent support for the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, elite discourse in Minsk favored a geopolitical shift away from Moscow and emphasized Belarus’ independent statehood and strategic autonomy. Elites tolerated and even co-opted a more nationalist agenda (including re-interpretations of history and the increased visiblity of nationalist symbols) and a clearer delineation emerged between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian public groups in Belarus, inspired also in part by the Ukrainian reform process, though this was not clearly reflected in institutional politics. Belarusian national identity lacks the deeper anti-Russian sentiment inhrerent in that of Ukraine. Russia responded by enhancing its profile in Belarus through increased Russkiy Mir and Rossotrunichestvo activities to positively shape public opinion, even as it distanced itself from Lukashenka. In the last few years, Russia more publicly challenged Lukashenka to make good on his pledges by signing and implementing the thirty-one roadmaps for Union State integration. The Wagner debacle of July 29 further strained relations, not least as President Alyksandr Lukashenka instrumentalized the arrests to suggest that Russia was the greatest threat to Belarusian sovereignty and only he could defend its statehood. The current political crisis can also be attributed to a number of accumulating internal proximate factors, which eroded support for an incumbent president seeking a sixth five-year term after twenty-six years in power: the mismanagement of COVID-19 responses; a lost economic decade in which recovery shackled the IT sector and entrepreneurship and initiated the 2017 “parasite tax” protests; the rise of “autocrat fatigue”; a generational change with those under forty years old not identifying with Lukashenka’s Soviet era models and mentality; and a generalized resistance to the idea that the election could be rigged as usual. The existing social contract was at breaking point.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
42. Economic Challenges for Belarus
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Overdependence on cheap Russian energy resources, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a lack of reform are the biggest challenges that could lead to the collapse of the Belarusian economy. Russia may use economic problems to make Belarus more dependent on it. Poland, other EU countries and the U.S. can support the Belarusian authorities in diversifying sources of crude oil supplies, negotiations on joining the World Trade Organisation, and possible efforts to obtain a loan from the International Monetary Fund.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economy, Crisis Management, Trade, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Poland, Belarus, and United States of America
43. Ukraine’s Response to the Political Crisis in Belarus
- Author:
- Maciej Zaniewicz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Alexander Lukashenka has so far been seen in Ukraine as a guarantor of Belarus’ independence from Russia. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities initially avoided condemning the electoral fraud to avoid weakening the Belarusian president. That have since tightened their positions in response to Lukashenka’s accusation that Ukraine helped initiate the protests. However, Ukraine will not become actively involved in resolving the crisis in Belarus and will limit itself to reacting to Belarusian provocations and supporting EU policy towards that country.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Crisis Management, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Belarus
44. Four Scenarios for the Crisis in Belarus
- Author:
- András Rácz, Cristina Gherasimov, and Milan Nič
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- As protests continue to galvanize Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko is consolidating his grip on power. Volatile domestic dynamics – and Russia’s reactions to them – will shape the discredited regime’s future. This paper outlines four possible scenarios for Belarus up to one year from now. They include options for Russia and the EU, whose strategic objectives differ, but whose short-term interests align: preventing bloodshed, avoiding open geopolitical conflict, and preparing for a post-Lukashenko transition.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, European Union, Geopolitics, Protests, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus
45. Lessons from Belarus: How the EU can support clean elections in Moldova and Georgia
- Author:
- Andrew Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The European Union was largely on the sidelines when the Belarusian regime rigged the 2020 presidential election, but upcoming votes in Georgia and Moldova pose a different challenge. The EU should make use of its significant leverage in Georgia and Moldova to counter their ruling parties’ extensive repertoire of electoral dirty tricks. The bloc will need to account for the obstacles created by the coronavirus crisis, not least the difficulty of conducting large-scale monitoring missions. The EU will also need to adjust to the ruling parties’ use of pandemic assistance for political gain, and their efforts to prevent citizens abroad from voting.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, Elections, European Union, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Moldova, Georgia, and Belarus
46. City Diplomacy: The EU’s Hidden Capacity to Act
- Author:
- Roderick Parkes
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Under the auspices of the EU, mayors are beginning to act like diplomats, brokering deals and defusing geopolitical disputes. On the one hand, such “city diplomacy” offers benefits: cities are reaching spots that the EU ordinarily cannot, flipping conventional hierarchies and making big issues seem small. On the other, it is potentially destabilizing in an era in which the exercise of power can have far-reaching consequences. Harnessing the activism of cities will be difficult, but not impossible.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Political Activism, European Union, and Cities
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Belarus
47. Presidential Election in Belarus Tensions Are Likely to Prevail
- Author:
- András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The impending presidential election in Belarus on August 9, 2020, is highly likely to result in the smooth victory of incumbent Alexandr Lukashenko. Despite this fact, the unprecedented – and still growing – politicization of Belarusian society constitutes a challenge to the regime that will not fade even after a clear-cut election. The resulting tensions will require more diplomatic attention from Germany and the European Union.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, European Union, Society, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Germany, and Belarus
48. Poland’s New Foreign Minister: Orbiting Closer to the Center of Power
- Author:
- Adam Traczyk
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Zbigniew Rau, who was appointed foreign minister on August 26, will help align the trajectory of Polish diplomacy with the government’s general line. His appointment fits into the logic of a larger government reshuffle, expected this fall, which aims for a greater centralization of power. His higher standing in the governing PiS party may, however, halt the gradual loss of relevance of Poland’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, and Belarus
49. Emerging from the political crisis in Belarus: with or without the intervention of external actors?
- Author:
- Ekaterina Pierson-Lyzhina
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- The protests against Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, which have continued beyond the August 9 presidential election, have been surprising in terms of their scale and level of politicization. The protest promises to be long-lasting bringing together people of all ages and professions, but the authorities are refusing to recognize it and are not satisfying any of its demands: to organize new this time democratic elections, to stop repression, to release detainees and political prisoners, to investigate crimes committed by the representatives of law enforcement agencies. Quite the opposite is happening: the crackdown orchestrated by Lukashenka’s regime, after a certain lull between August 12 and 16, is intensifying with hundreds of arrests per day, the repression against the emerging leaders and journalists (from the private media) who report the facts. What are the scenarios of the development of this crisis which seems to have reached an impasse? Can Belarus emerge from it without resorting to foreign mediation? What role could the European Union play?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Belarus
50. Belarus: Economic structure
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic structure, Charts and tables, and Annual indicators
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
51. The Structure of Government Elites within the Regime of Alaksandar Lukashenka
- Author:
- Francisak Viacorka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- his paper reveals the structure and trends within Belarus government elites in the period between 1994 and 2017. Belarus remains one of the least free and under-reformed post-Soviet countries yet it seems to have a strong functional bureaucracy. Seventy-еight per- cent of ministers and state committee chairs are employed according to their professional ca- reer background. The share of appointees with specialized education rose from 71.9% to 86% during Lukashenka’s presidency. So the author assumes that in the case of unrest or political transition, a bureaucratic apparatus composed of specialized professionals could play a stabi- lizing role. This research also shows slight indigenization1 and westernization of Nomenklatura2. The number of officials born in Belarus increased from 71.9% to 81.4%, and those from the west- ern Horadnia region increased from 4% to 20%. At the same time, the research revealed, that the Government continues to have an inadequate representation of women (<5%), and other parties (<11%); meanwhile, it has an increasing presence of professional military (from 15% to 20%).
- Topic:
- Government, Minorities, Transition, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Belarus
52. China-Belarus Cooperation Under “Belt and Road Initiative”
- Author:
- Weihong Xu
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pangoal Institution
- Abstract:
- As the programmatic strategy of China’s economic reopening, “Belt and Road Initiative" has gained more and more recognition from abroad. Belarus, as it sits at the core of the New Silk Road Economy Zone, is also coming to the stage. Belarus has a good geographic location and advantageous natural conditions, but the difficulty of seeking Western assistance in developing its real economy has been constantly rising after Brexit, isolationist Trump, and the rising of anti-globalism in Europe. Consequently, Belarus has been responding positively to China’s BRI. Especially in the cooperation of production capacity, Belarus industries are sincerely looking at China, as China is the only great economy that transcends from planned economy to market economy.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China, Eurasia, and Belarus
53. Fundamental Design Principles of Confidence-Building Defense
- Author:
- Carl Conetta and Lutz Unterseher
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- A selection of slides prepared for seminars held in Holland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Belarus in 1994. The seminars were organized and co-sponsored by the Study Group on Alternative Security Policy (SAS) and the Project on Defense Alternatives (PDA). Twenty-five years later the principles of Confidence-Building Defense remain relevant to the efforts of North and South Korea to construct a “peace regime” after many decades of enmity and military standoff.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, National Security, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, North Korea, Hungary, Czech Republic, Holland, and Belarus
54. Towards a happy twentieth anniversary? Future thinking on the Eastern Partnership’s 3Ds: dilemmas, design and deliverables
- Author:
- Andriy Tyushka
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
- Institution:
- Slovak Foreign Policy Association
- Abstract:
- The Eastern Partnership’s tenth-anniversary celebration in May 2019 by the European Union and its Eastern neighbors was anything but grandiose and festive. Internal EU developments, the overall political dynamics in the region and the indeterminacies of the Eastern Partnership project were the main cause. As the EU’s flagship policy initiative towards its Eastern European neighborhood is currently undergoing auditing and revision, this article seeks to cast a look back at how the Eastern Partnership has functioned over the past decade – and to think forward to its future(s) with regard to design and deliverables in face of the enduring and imminent policy dilemmas in this highly contested region.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus
55. Ten years of EaP: successes but also new challenges
- Author:
- Petra Kuchyňková
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
- Institution:
- Slovak Foreign Policy Association
- Abstract:
- According to Petra Kuchyňková, assistant professor at Masaryk University in Brno, the Eastern Partnership has been relatively successful, despite the frequent political instability in EaP countries. However, the EU has not always been consistent in its neighborhood policy. This is easily understood if we look at the heterogeneity of the EaP countries and the differences in the extent of Russian influence in the region. According to Kuchyňková, the EU should not abolish the sanctions on Russia unless there is visible progress in the Minsk process, so as to avoid damaging its reputation as normative actor. Cooperation between the EU and the EEU seems unlikely due the atmosphere of mistrust and suspicion. EU neighborhood policy could receive new impetus as a result of it being given more attention in the new multiannual financial framework.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Public Policy, and Trade Liberalization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus
56. Real integration – impact of the DCFTA on trade between Ukraine and the European Union
- Author:
- Slawomir Matuszak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
- Institution:
- Slovak Foreign Policy Association
- Abstract:
- The paper analyzes the first years of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union, focusing on the economic part: the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreement (DCFTA). It describes the causes and results of changes in the flow of goods, and the implications of these for Ukraine’s policy. The DCFTA was one of the key tools that allowed Ukraine to survive the difficult period of economic crisis. The aim of this article is to show to what extent, starting from 2015, Ukraine has begun to integrate with the EU market and at the same time become increasingly independent of the Russian market and more broadly the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. It can be assumed that this process will only accelerate. It is just the first stage on the pathway followed by the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the 1990s. To achieve full integration requires an increase in investment cooperation, currently at a fairly low level.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Free Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus
57. Eastern Partnership and Moldova: recent trends
- Author:
- Iurie Gotişan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
- Institution:
- Slovak Foreign Policy Association
- Abstract:
- The article attempts to outline the main trends and dynamics in Moldova’s development over the ten years since it became part of the EU’s Eastern Partnership. This article analyzes the main dimensions in Moldova’s relationship with the EU, in particular the essential elements are emphasized vis-à-vis the EU–Moldova Association Agreement, Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and the dialog on abolishing the visa regime with the EU. Moreover, it attempts a regional comparison of the EaP member states, from an interdisciplinary analytical perspective offered by some civil society entities in Moldova.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus
58. The Belarusian paradox: A country of today versus a president of the past
- Author:
- Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Belarus is undergoing important societal changes – public attitudes are evolving, the private sector is expanding, and the national culture is experiencing a certain revival – but the country’s old command and repressive model of governance shows no signs of change. This widening disjuncture is a race against time. At some point in the future, the societal transformations will require a significant ideational and structural reform in the system of governance. The longer the reform is postponed, the more costly it will be for the country. The end of Alexander Lukashenko’s personalist rule, whenever that happens, is likely to put a succession problem and, possibly, even a question about the country’s political independence on the agenda. A principal aim of the Western policy towards Belarus should be pushing the country’s regime in the direction of market reforms, political liberalization, independent identity-building and all other means that strengthen the country’s resilience.
- Topic:
- Governance, Reform, Liberalism, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
59. Belarus politics: Quick View - Ministry of Information blocks access to opposition website
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, News Analysis, Forecast, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
60. Belarus politics: Quick View - Lukashenka fires top official media managers
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, News Analysis, Forecast, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
61. Belarus/Ukraine politics: Belarus: torn between Ukraine and Russia
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, News Analysis, and Recent developments
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Belarus
62. Russia/Belarus politics: Quick View - Belarus and Russia make little progress on visa-free issue
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Belarus
63. Belarus politics: Quick View - Makei—Belarus's best shot to improve ties with the West
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
64. Belarus/Ukraine politics: Ukraine in 2018: not so quiet on the eastern front?
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Belarus
65. Electoral System of the Republic of Belarus after 25 Years of Independence
- Author:
- Anna Kuleszewicz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to present a case study analysis of the condition of the electoral system in the Republic of Belarus after more than a quarter of a century of independence. The main purpose of the paper is to explain the discrepancies between legislation and prac- tice. The author intended to note a real situation that dominates the country’s political scene in comparison to theoretical establishments. A Constitution of the Republic (created in 1994, with minor changes in 1996 and 2004) is the legal ground of the electoral system, how- ever, procedural details were drawn up in the Electoral Code. The principles of Belarusian electoral code consist of some statements known from democratic models, such as universal suffrage, direct suffrage, secret ballot and equality. There are different types of elections in Belarus but the most important ones are presidential and parliamentary elections. Despite the detailed legal rules for conducting these elections, in fact, the principles of democracy, as well as the internal rules in Belarus, are not respected. Both presidential and parliamentary elections have shown this in recent years. Independent observers for a long time have been alarming about worrying electoral practices in Belarus. It is also worth emphasizing that since 1994, one man has been in power uninterruptedly, and Parliament has in fact a sym- bolic function. In the source materials, the author used Belarusian legal acts, analyses and reports, press notes as well as scientific papers.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, Independence, and Post Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
66. Looking into Eurasia - A review of 2017: the year in politics
- Author:
- Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, David Cadier, Isabelle Facon, Clémentine Fauconnier, Marie-Hélène Mandrillon, Anaïs Marin, Dominique Menu, and Ioulia Shukan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, Nationalism, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Territorial Disputes, Global Markets, Finance, Europeanization, Memory, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus, and European Union
67. The Chinese People’s Republic Investment Engagement in Belarus and Ukraine after 2010
- Author:
- Patrycja Rutkowska and Adam Adamczyk
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this article is to present and compare China’s economic, political and military involvement in Ukraine and Belarus, with particular emphasis on their role in the global expansion of the PRC. China after the opening of the economy to the world in the early 1980s, immediately became one of the most important elements of the global economy. The article will attempt an analysis of Chinese investments on the Dnieper, but also the political and military aspects of this cooperation.
- Topic:
- Politics, Economy, Investment, and Army
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Asia, and Belarus
68. Crimea 2.0: Will Russia seek reunification with Belarus?
- Author:
- Arkady Moshes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- While speculation about whether Russia may repeat the Crimean scenario in Belarus should not be totally dismissed, exaggerated alarmism would not be appropriate either. Rather, Moscow’s policy is aimed at making sure that Belarus and its leadership remain critically dependent on Russia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Empire, and Annexation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Belarus, and Crimea
69. Russia/Belarus politics: Quick View - Zapad military exercises end (almost) uneventfully
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Belarus
70. Belarus politics: Quick View - Russia asks Belarus to ship oil through Russian ports
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
71. Europe politics: Quick View - CIS council meeting to boost military co-operation
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, and Belarus
72. Belarus politics: Quick View - Government appoints new information and culture ministers
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, News Analysis, Forecast, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
73. Europe politics: Can Poland strengthen its ties with Ukraine and Belarus?
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, News Analysis, and Recent developments
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Poland, and Belarus
74. Belarus/Russia politics: Is Russia a credible threat to its western neighbours?
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, News Analysis, and Recent developments
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Belarus
75. Russia/Belarus politics: Quick View - Lukashenka goes to Brussels
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Belarus
76. Europe politics: Quick View - Ukrainian and Belarusian presidents meet in Abu Dhabi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus
77. Europe politics: Quick View - Belarus adopts less friendly stance towards Ukraine
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus
78. Europe politics: Eastern Partnership delivers little (except for Armenia)
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, News Analysis, and Recent developments
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and Belarus
79. Americas politics: Quick View - Belarus and Venezuela: military allies, with Russia's help
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Venezuela, and Belarus
80. Belarus/Ukraine politics: Quick View - Belarus arrests two high-profile Ukrainians
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Belarus
81. Belarus/Ukraine politics: Quick View - Belarus arrests two high-profile Ukrainians
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Belarus
82. Belarus-West Relations: The New Normal
- Author:
- Dzianis Melyantsou
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Eastern Voices: Europe's East Faces an Unsettled West." The new geopolitical environment formed after the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas, together with emerging threats and challenges, are pressing both Belarus and the West to revise their policies in the region as well as their relations with each other. In this new context, Belarus is seeking a more balanced foreign policy and, at least towards the Ukrainian crisis, a more neutral stance.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, War, Territorial Disputes, Foreign Aid, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Belarus, Crimea, United States of America, and European Union
83. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L’année politique 2016
- Author:
- Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, François Dauceé, Laure Delcour, Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, Aude Merlin, Xavier Richet, Kathy Rousselet, and Julien Vercueil
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Sovereignty, War, International Security, Regional Integration, and State
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Belarus, and European Union
84. Pension reform in Belarus in the shadow of Social Europe: vulnerability issues of people aged 50+ and points for improvement
- Author:
- Sierž Naŭrodski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- The policy brief by Sierž Naŭrodski presents a review of potential effects of parametric pension reform in Belarus starting in 2017 for the population aged 50 and more in terms of unemployment, alcohol consumption, and poverty. It concludes that, despite the fact that raising the retirement age is overdue in Belarus to address demographic challenges, it may have a negative impact on the quality of life of people close to retirement age as well as a poorer GDP effect within current conditions on the labor market in Belarus. The paper presents a set of public policy improvement directions in Belarus, which could help mitigating vulnerability of the group 50+ during the pension reform.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Labor Policies, Public Policy, and Aging
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
85. Belarus politics: Quick View - Pro-Russian journalists arrested
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
86. Azerbaijan/Belarus/Armenia politics: Quick View – Blogger's extradition leads to tensions
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Belarus
87. Russia/Belarus politics: Quick View - Russia to partially re-erect border control zones
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Belarus
88. Belarus politics: Despite rising risks, protests continue
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
89. Belarus politics: Protests do not signal opposition's unity
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
90. Belarus politics: Quick View - Police crack down violently on protests
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
91. Belarus/Russia politics: Quick View - Russia releases new loans to Belarus
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Belarus
92. World politics: Progress and next steps for China's Belt and Road Initiative
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Russia, China, Iran, Sudan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Ukraine, India, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Greece, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Poland, Lithuania, Vietnam, Philippines, Djibouti, Sri Lanka, Estonia, Armenia, Cambodia, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Nepal, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Tanzania, Croatia, Latvia, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, Singapore, Thailand, Rwanda, Oman, Hong Kong, United Arab Emirates, Laos, Myanmar, Slovenia, Slovakia, Belarus, and Brunei
93. Belarus politics: Quick View - Government claims to have foiled an armed plot
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
94. Belarus politics: Mr Lukashenka's Turkish gambit
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
95. Belarus politics: Quick View - Two opposition figures win seats in parliamentary election
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Belarus
96. Will Belarus fully benefit from the Eurasian Economic Union?
- Author:
- Sierž Naŭrodski and Uladzimir Valetka
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- Eurasian Economic Union, an ambitious project intended to benefit the countries in the post-soviet zone, evokes questions about its future. Is pulling together regional cooperation and tightening its relationship with Russia beneficial to Belarus in the long run? Having analyzed the recent trends in trade, labor and capital flows, Sierž Naūrodski and Uladzimir Valetka shed light on the highly questionable nature of potential benefits the Union could bring to Belarussian economy within its current macroeconomic and institutional framework.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Economic Growth, Regional Integration, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eurasia, and Belarus
97. Authoritarianism Goes Global (II): The Leninist Roots of Civil Society Repression
- Author:
- Anne Applebaum
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Democracy
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- In the early part of the twentieth century, the small group of revolutionaries who became the Russian Bolsheviks developed an alternative theory of civil society. Burke, Tocqueville, and even Russian intellectuals believed that civil society was fundamental to democracy; Lenin believed that the destruction of civil society was crucial to totalitarian dictatorship. But by attempting to control every aspect of society, totalitarian regimes would eventually turn every aspect of society into a potential source of dissent, as in the cases of Czechoslovakia and Poland. Yet in many other societies heavily influenced by Soviet ideology—those in Belarus, Central Asia, China, Cuba, parts of Africa, and much of the Arab world—those in power remain attached to the old Bolshevik idea that independent civic institutions are a threat to the state.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Authoritarianism, Media, Repression, and Dictatorship
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Europe, Central Asia, Middle East, Asia, Cuba, North America, and Belarus
98. Civil Society Voices: How the EU Should Engage Its Eastern Neighbours
- Author:
- Iskra Kirova and Sabine Freizer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Open Society Foundations
- Abstract:
- The EU’s “eastern neighbourhood” is an increasingly complicated and contested space. The challenge of Russia’s resurgence and regional elites’ resistance to reform are forcing the EU to reevaluate its policies. With the launch of its Eastern Partnership six years ago, the EU was ready to offer its neighbors to the east—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—integration into the EU market, mobility of people, and close political ties in exchange for rule of law and democratic and economic reforms. Today, it questions whether this policy has secured its strategic interests and political influence. The Eastern Partnership reinforced domestic constituencies for change in at least three partners—Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—that in 2014 signed association agreements. It has not lost the potential to contribute to democratic processes and support reformers in the other three: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Belarus. The Eastern Partnership remains the EU’s most effective foreign policy instrument to build accountable and stable institutions and states, and uphold the EU’s commitment to its neighbors’ sovereignty and right to make independent foreign policy choices. This policy paper—the result of extensive discussions with experts and civil society leaders—highlights local concerns and expectations about the EU’s role in the region and its support for stability and democracy. As the EU rethinks its policies in the area, this paper offers recommendations on how to make the Eastern Partnership more effective and relevant to people, societies, and government, and to secure the EU’s interests in an increasingly polarized and unstable region.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Nationalism, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Democracy, Economic Policy, Elites, and Economic Integration
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus
99. Tableau de bord des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale et d’Eurasie 2014 (Volume 2 : Eurasie)
- Author:
- Jean-Pierre Pagé, Anne De Tinguy, Jacques Sapir, Julien Vercueil, Vitaly Denysyuk, Raphaël Jozan, David Teurtrie, and Faruk Ülgen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Le lecteur ne s’étonnera pas de ce que, en 2014, le conflit en Ukraine soit au cœur des préoccupations des pays d'Europe centrale, orientale et de l'Eurasie, même si ses incidences sont diversement ressenties selon les régions considérées. Les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale sont divisés dans leur appréhension politique des événements, et leurs économies ne sont pas directement concernées par les retombées du conflit en Ukraine. On pouvait craindre en revanche qu’elles subissent l’atonie de la zone euro, et son incapacité à retrouver des taux de croissance stimulant la demande extérieure. Cependant – et c’est là une heureuse surprise –, plusieurs d’entre elles ont trouvé la parade en tirant parti des fonds que l’Union européenne leur destine généreusement pour relancer leur demande domestique. Et les effets positifs de cette tactique portent des fruits spectaculaires, d’autant qu’elle se combine avec les incidences de la faible hausse des prix sur le pouvoir d’achat des consommateurs. Il y a là des enseignements à tirer pour la politique économique de l’Europe Occidentale ! Les pays de l’espace eurasiatique sont eux directement aux prises avec les développements du conflit ukrainien. Les incidences en sont multiples : les sanctions et contre-sanctions entre la Russie et l’Union européenne influent grandement sur les économies périphériques, de grands projets comme le gazoduc South Stream sont annulés, les relations des pays d’Asie centrale et du Caucase avec l’Union européenne sont observées avec vigilance par la Russie… La crise ukrainienne, c’est un fait, porte son ombre sur le grand projet de Vladimir Poutine d’instauration d’une Union économique eurasiatique.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, International Organization, Markets, Political Economy, War, Natural Resources, Finance, Regional Integration, Transnational Actors, and Emerging States
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, and Belarus
100. Democratization and Instability in Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus
- Author:
- Robert Nalbandov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This monograph analyzes the interconnections between the democratic institutionalization of the newly independent states of Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus, their political (in)stability, and economic development and prosperity. By introducing the concept of regime mimicry into the field of public administration, this monograph extends the epistemological frameworks of the democratization school to the phenomenon of political culture. Successes and failures of the democratic institutionalization processes in these countries largely depend on the ways their institutional actors reacted to internal and external disturbances of their domestic political, econmic, and cultural environments. While Georgia's political culture revealed the highest degree of flexibility in accepting the externally-proposed institutional frameworks and practices, the bifurcate political culture in Ukraine impeded its democratic institutionalization, while the rigid political culture in Belarus completely stalled the process of institutional transformations.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Asia, Georgia, and Belarus