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1. China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
China is expanding its potential to project power abroad. It includes legal changes, expansion of military infrastructure in other countries, and cooperation with partners in the Pacific. An example of their activity in the field of security is the operations of Chinese security companies, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. This should encourage NATO to further deepen cooperation with its members and partners, including with Pacific countries, as well as to strengthen the coordination of EU and U.S. policy towards developing countries.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Infrastructure, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Middle East, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

2. AUKUS and critical minerals: hedging Beijing’s pervasive, clever and coordinated statecraft

Author:
Ben Halton and Kim Beazley
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
AUKUS has a heavy focus on R&D of military capabilities. A number of departments, including defence, foreign affairs and prime ministerial equivalents are engaged. The science and technology to deliver those capabilities must resolve issues of insecure supply chains. Currently, supply chains for processed critical minerals and their resulting materials aren’t specifically included. Yet all AUKUS capabilities, and the rules-based order that they uphold, depend heavily on critical minerals. China eclipses not only AUKUS for processing those minerals into usable forms, but the rest of the world combined. Without critical minerals, states are open to economic coercion in various technological industries, and defence manufacturing is particularly exposed to unnecessary supply-chain challenges. This is where Australia comes in. Australia has the essential minerals, which are more readily exploitable because they’re located in less densely populated or ecologically sensitive areas. Australia also has the right expertise, including universities offering the appropriate advanced geoscience degrees, as well as advanced infrastructure, world-class resources technology and deep industry connections with Asia and Africa, which are also vital global sources of critical minerals. This paper outlines why Australia offers an unrivalled rallying point to drive secure critical-mineral supply among a wide field of vested nations, using AUKUS but not limited to AUKUS partners, how WA has globally superior reserves and substantial expertise, and why northern Australia more generally has a key role to play. The paper also explains why policy action here must be prioritised by the Australian Government.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, AUKUS, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:
Australia and Asia-Pacific

3. De-risking authoritarian AI: A balanced approach to protecting our digital ecosystems

Author:
Simeon Gilding
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI)–enabled systems make many invisible decisions affecting our health, safety and wealth. They shape what we see, think, feel and choose, they calculate our access to financial benefits as well as our transgressions, and now they can generate complex text, images and code just as a human can, but much faster. So it’s unsurprising that moves are afoot across democracies to regulate AI’s impact on our individual rights and economic security, notably in the European Union (EU). But, if we’re wary about AI, we should be even more circumspect about AI-enabled products and services from authoritarian countries that share neither our values nor our interests. And, for the foreseeable future, that means the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—a revisionist authoritarian power demonstrably hostile to democracy and the rules-based international order, which routinely uses AI to strengthen its own political and social stability at the expense of individual human rights. In contrast to other authoritarian countries such as Russia, Iran and North Korea, China is a technology superpower with global capacity and ambitions and is a major exporter of effective, cost-competitive AI-enabled technology into democracies.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
China and Asia-Pacific

4. Quad Technology Business and Investment Forum outcomes report

Author:
ASPI
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The Quad has prioritised supporting and guiding investment in critical and emerging technology projects consistent with its intent to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific. Governments cannot do this alone. Success requires a concerted and coordinated effort between governments, industry, private capital partners and civil society. To explore opportunities and challenges to this success, the Quad Critical and Emerging Technology Working Group convened the inaugural Quad Technology Business and Investment Forum in Sydney, Australia on 2 December 2022. The forum was supported by the Australian Department of Home Affairs and delivered by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). The forum brought together senior Quad public- and private-sector leaders, laid the foundations for enhanced private–public collaboration and canvassed a range of practical action-oriented initiatives. Sessions were designed to identify the key challenges and opportunities Quad member nations face in developing coordinated strategic, targeted investment into critical and emerging technology. Attendees of the forum overwhelmingly endorsed the sentiment that, with our governments, industry, investors and civil society working better together, collectively, our countries can lead the world in quantum technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology and other critical and emerging technologies. This report reflects the discussions and key findings from the forum and recommends that the Quad Critical and Emerging Technology Working Group establish an Industry Engagement Sub-Group to develop and deliver a Quad Critical and Emerging Technology Forward Work Plan.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Alliance, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific

5. Smooth sailing? Australia, New Zealand and the United States partnering in–and with–the Pacific islands

Author:
Joanne Wallis and Anna Powles
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Australia, New Zealand and the United States should help create an ASEAN-style forum for Pacific island nations to discuss security and manage geopolitical challenges. The call for a dialogue, modelled on the ASEAN regional forum, is one of several recommendations to improve security partnerships and coordination in the region, reducing the risk that the three countries trip over one another and lose sight of the Pacific’s own priorities as they deepen their Pacific ties out of strategic necessity amid China’s growing interest. While focussing on those three countries, this report stresses that wider partnerships should be considered, including with France, India, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and European Union. The report states that the three countries will have to get used to greater Chinese involvement in the Pacific, even if they don’t accept it, much less like it.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Alliance, ASEAN, AUKUS, and ANZUS
Political Geography:
Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

6. Washington Zeroes in on Manila

Author:
Catharin Dalpino
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
With an apparent renaissance in the US-Philippine alliance, spurred by rising tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, the Biden administration ramped up diplomatic activity with Manila as the two countries moved toward an official visit from President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., in May. At the same time, the 42nd iteration of Cobra Gold, which returned to full strength for the first time since the 2014 coup in Bangkok, suggested momentum in the US-Thailand alliance, albeit with a lower profile. While the international environment continued to be roiled by US-China rivalry, the Russian war in Ukraine, and high food and commodity prices, Southeast Asia’s own internal turmoil was evident. The junta in Myanmar extended the state of emergency and stepped up aerial bombing of areas held by the opposition and armed ethnic groups. As Indonesia takes up the ASEAN chair, prospects for implementing the Five-Point Consensus Plan are dim, if not dead. Vietnam and Thailand began leadership transitions—Hanoi with an anti-corruption purge and Bangkok with the launch of general elections—while Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen continued to eviscerate the opposition ahead of his near-certain re-election in July. As Southeast Asian leaders work to grow their economies in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, competition among them to attract foreign domestic investment is intensifying, particularly in technology and electric vehicles. In the meantime, the region awaits the conclusion of negotiations for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which will offer insight into Washington’s vision of an economic order for the region.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

7. Abrogating the Visiting Forces Agreement: Its Effects on Philippines’ Security and Stability in Southeast Asia

Author:
Renato Acosta
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
During much of 2022, the defense and security alliance between the United States of America and the Philippines, anchored on and reinforced by the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT, teetered on the brink of collapse. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte brought relations to the brink through attempts to scuttle the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). This move would only embolden Chinese challenges to Manila’s territorial integrity and its aspirations to dominate Southeast Asia and the South China Sea. While the Duterte administration recited parochial reasons to terminate the VFA, pundits from the security and diplomatic sectors viewed Duterte’s attempts as a pretext to steer the Philippines towards China under his own brand and definition of an independent foreign policy. During his term, Duterte reiterated that President Xi Jinping and other Chinese officials were his friends. He also publicly declared that the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG), a northeastern section of the Spratly Islands, was already in physical control and possession of Beijing due to the unchallenged presence of its military and maritime militia vessels there. Given these statements, Duterte has constantly received criticism over his defeatist stance towards China.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Politics, Armed Forces, and Instability
Political Geography:
China, Philippines, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

8. SOVEREIGNTY OVER THE PARACEL ISLANDS IN 1884-1945: AN APPROACH FROM THE RIVALRY BETWEEN FRANCE, CHINA, AND JAPAN

Author:
Quyet Luu and Nguyet Nguyen
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The Paracel Islands are situated in the South China Sea geographic center and have an important strategic location for the military and the economy. Since 1884, France has represented the Vietnamese state as a protectorate to manage the archipelago. In the context of France seeking to expand its influence into the Asia-Pacific region, disputes over sovereignty over the Paracel Islands occurred during the colonial period between France (representing Vietnam), China, and Japan. The article aims to analyze the importance of the Paracel Islands in the policies of France, China, and Japan in general. Moreover, the specific activities of France in the struggle with China and Japan to affirm and protect sovereignty over the Paracel Islands would also be analyzed. Based on primary and secondary data, along with historical research methods, research methods in international relations, and other interdisciplinary research strategies, the article concludes that the Paracel Islands play an important role in the strategies of France, China, and Japan. Hence, the Paracel issue in this period has gone beyond the framework of traditional territorial disputes, becoming "internationalization” with consequences that persist to the present day. France's policy to exploit and administer the Paracel Islands was persistent, thorough, and systematic in the military, economic, political, and diplomatic spheres.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Sovereignty, History, Territorial Disputes, and Internationalization
Political Geography:
Japan, China, France, Asia-Pacific, South China Sea, and Paracel Islands

9. A New Horizon in U.S. Trade Policy: Key Developments and Questions for the Biden Administration

Author:
Trevor Sutton and Mike Williams
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
This issue brief examines some of the key trade initiatives pursued by the Biden administration to date. It then sets out key questions facing U.S. trade policy in a global environment defined by volatility and renewed ambition to tackle the great challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change, inequality, and great power competition.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Inequality, Economy, Trade Policy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Americas

10. The Role of Umbrella States in the Global Nuclear Order

Author:
Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This paper focuses on countries under extended nuclear deterrence arrangements, or ‘umbrella’ states. The paper explores the ways in which umbrella states both in the Asia-Pacific region and in Europe have supported prevailing nuclear deterrence practices or distanced themselves from such practices. While there is a tendency for these countries to side with their nuclear-armed patron on matters related to nuclear weapons and nuclear disarmament norms, at times they have taken steps away from the allied mainstream position by advocating for anti-nuclear weapon policies. As long as extended deterrence has a nuclear dimension, allies will need to balance between normative pressures to support nuclear disarmament and alliance commitments that require at least passive support for nuclear deterrence practices.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia-Pacific

11. Campaigning to Dissuade: Applying Emerging Technologies to Engage and Succeed in the Information Age Security Competition

Author:
Bryan Clark and Dan Patt
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) presents the United States with its most comprehensive economic and security rival since Great Britain during the nineteenth century. Starting in 2018, US defense strategies have highlighted the threat that the PRC poses to US allies, and successive presidential administrations and Congresses responded by increasing defense budgets to expand US military capability and capacity. Despite these efforts, numerous assessments now show that modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has eroded—and in some missions overcome—US military superiority. Absent large and politically fraught increases in defense spending, continued expansion and improvement of today’s US force are unlikely to regain broad overmatch against the PLA in the Western Pacific. Instead, the United States will need new strategies and operational concepts to deter PRC aggression. Recognizing this imperative, the 2022 US National Defense Strategy (NDS) attempted to move in a different direction from its predecessors through two new lines of effort called “campaigning” and “integrated deterrence.” However, in unclassified documents and speeches by defense officials, both the essence of integrated deterrence and the mechanism of campaigning remain unclear. 1 Emerging technologies offer the US military a way to put these new concepts into action, sustaining its ability to prevent conflict and gaining an upper hand in the strategic competition with China despite the PLA’s “home team” advantages. The United States remains the world leader in operational and technological innovation, as evidenced by decades of advancements in networking and computing—marked recently by the rapid commercialization of artificial intelligence (AI). Building on the 2022 NDS, this report proposes a strategy for campaigning that would exploit information technologies to dissuade China from pursuing acts of aggression against allies such as Taiwan. The primary objective of the proposed campaigning model is to shape PRC government decision-making, especially that of the PRC military, in ways that are conducive to long-term regional stability and prosperity. A whole-of-government effort like that implied by the 2022 NDS would be the most effective form of campaigning because it could exploit the PRC government’s numerous vulnerabilities, from its appalling record on human rights to its loss of economic momentum and its growing demographic challenges. However, this report focuses on actions the US military can take by itself or with allied militaries to dissuade future PRC aggression. In the proposed approach, campaigning is an ongoing sequence of probing, signaling, adapting, and acting by the US military and intelligence community, coupled with and informed by instrumentation of the information environment. In addition to demonstrating US resolve, campaigning should enable the US to estimate competitor habits, preferences, and fears. These estimates would guide future campaigning activities and inform US force planners regarding a competitor’s uncertainty and areas of concern. Armed with increasing insight about adversary beliefs, campaigning actions would aim to shape an opponent’s preferences and priorities away from violent paths to their goals and toward scenarios that are more aligned with US interests. In offering an approach to dissuasion, this report diverges from the strategy of deterring war primarily through threats of denial or punishment. This construct has dominated US defense strategy since the Soviet Union collapsed because conventional dominance enabled the US military to credibly stop or reverse an act of aggression and nuclear weapons provided the capability to impose existential punishment. Today, the PRC’s status as a peer competitor makes denial and punishment less credible. The US government will instead need to prevent conflict before it becomes imminent.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, Science and Technology, Strategic Competition, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
China, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

12. EU-Pacific Talks: In-EV-itable future of automotive industry: what is the role of the Pacific region

Author:
Petra Pospíšilová
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In the last debate of the second series of EU-Pacific Talks, organised by EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, the guests focused on electric and fuel cell vehicles, which are envisaged as a way to decarbonise road transport. Read what our guests discussed in this report by Petra Pospíšilová.
Topic:
European Union, Transportation, Decarbonization, and Automotive Industry
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia-Pacific

13. EU-Pacific Talks: Be small and beautiful - future of nuclear energy?

Author:
Petra Pospíšilová
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
This year's third debate in a series of expert discussions on the EU's relations with the Pacific occurred online on Tuesday, 28 March 2023. The guests offered their views on nuclear energy trends, outlook, and small modular reactors' role in energy and industry sectors. Read more about this debate in the report by Petra Pospíšilová.
Topic:
Nuclear Power, European Union, Industry, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia-Pacific

14. EU – Pacific Talks: EU – Security Challenges for the Pacific, EU, and Russia

Author:
Tomáš Moudrý
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
If you missed the debate EU - Pacific talks: EU - Security Challenges for the Pacific, EU, and Russia, here you can read the report from the debate written by Tomáš Moudrý. During the debate, it was discussed, for example, that despite the considerable geographical distance, the EU and the Indo-Pacific region are now more interconnected than ever before and both sides are seeking to strengthen their partnership in many areas, with security policy now one of the most important due to many factors.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, Dialogue, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia-Pacific

15. Dangerous Straits: Wargaming a Future Conflict over Taiwan

Author:
Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Becca Wasser, and Chris Dougherty
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Until recently, U.S. policymakers and subject matter experts have viewed the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) forcible unification with Taiwan as a distant threat. But the mix of rapid Chinese military modernization, a narrow window for localized near-parity with the U.S. military, and growing pessimism about the prospects for peaceful unification may lead the PRC to perceive that it has the ability to pursue a successful operation against Taiwan. Beijing’s lessons learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could prompt the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to adjust its war plans for Taiwan to become more effective and deadly. Coupled together, these developments may suggest an accelerated timeline for seizing Taiwan. It is therefore urgent that the United States, in conjunction with its regional allies and partners, identify ways to deter the PRC from invading Taiwan and prevent a future conflict. To do so, the Gaming Lab at CNAS, in partnership with NBC’s Meet the Press, conducted a high-level strategic-operational wargame exploring a fictional war over Taiwan, set in 2027. The wargame sought to illuminate the dilemmas that U.S. and Chinese policymakers might face in such a conflict, along with the strategies they might adopt to achieve their overarching objectives. The game was intended to produce insights as to how the United States and its allies and partners could deter the PRC from invading Taiwan and could better position themselves to defend Taiwan and defeat such aggression should deterrence fail.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Conflict, and War Games
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

16. Identity and support for policies towards Indigenous people: Evidence from Australia

Author:
Astghik Mavisakalyan and Yashar Tarverdi
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper adds to knowledge on the role of politicians’ and voters’ identities in influencing policy-making in societies marked by ethnic inequality. The outcome we investigate is the initiatives and policies targeting Indigenous populations in the context of Australia. We ask whether and how politicians’ and voters’ identities, defined based on a range of their observable characteristics, shape initiation and support of Indigenous-focused policies. Drawing on data on the voting history of members of the two houses of the Australian parliament, we provide an analysis of law-making behaviour and show that political ideology, and to some extent politicians’ propensity to act rebelliously and diligently, are significant determinants of their agreement on Indigenous-focused policies. Our complementary analysis of voters’ attitudes and preferences on issues concerning Indigenous Australians points to the high relevance of political ideology, and in doing so, highlights the alignments in the behaviours of politicians and voters.
Topic:
Inequality, Domestic Politics, Voting, Indigenous, and Identity
Political Geography:
Australia and Asia-Pacific

17. Duterte’s pandemic populism: Strongman leadership, weak state capacity, and the politics of deployment in the Philippines

Author:
Julio C. Teehankee
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic undermined the populist legacy of Philippine president Rodrigo R. Duterte. Despite implementing one of the longest and strictest lockdowns globally, the country has struggled with controlling the pandemic. While Duterte looks to have triumphed in his attack on human rights and press freedom, his government’s record in combating the virus has been spotty at best. Yet Duterte’s populism has proven to be resilient. He has remained extremely popular, with a September 2021 national survey reporting 81 per cent approval of his government’s response to the pandemic and 91 per cent of respondents expressing trust in his leadership. The irony of Duterte’s populist resilience amid his poor pandemic response serves to highlight his mastery of political deployment within a weak state. Two significant inputs are required to deploy state capacity into a range of outcomes: political coalitions (including leadership, classes, and parties) and a balance of social forces. The ‘politics of deployment’ depends on the quality of decision-making of state leadership and the political coalitions forged to support such decision-making. Decisions, in turn, depend on the balance of social forces—the resistance or support of various sectors in society. This paper will unpack Duterte’s deployment of ‘brute force governance’ (which he earlier employed in his bloody ‘war on drugs’) in addressing the COVID19 crisis in the Philippines.
Topic:
Populism, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Rodrigo Duterte
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

18. Early Warning in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
Mark Stokes and Eric Lee
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Shows of force from China’s People’s Liberation Army exist on a continuum from peace to war and can be characterized as coercive or annihilative. In this report, Executive Director Mark Stokes and Associate Director of Programs Eric Lee examine kinetic and non-kinetic threats posed to Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army. The authors explore the history of Taiwan’s early warning infrastructure and radar order of battle. They then assess how these capabilities support Taiwan’s air sovereignty missions of surveillance and control around its territories. They conclude by suggesting ways the United States can bolster Taiwan’s early warning capabilities.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Surveillance, and Army
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

19. Drug trafficking in the Pacific Islands: The impact of transnational crime

Author:
Jose Sousa-Santos
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Pacific “drug highway” has spilled over into domestic markets for illicit drug consumption and production in the Pacific Islands region. Drug trafficking has evolved significantly with the rise of local actors in transnational criminal networks. Capacity shortfalls and a disconnect between regional law enforcement infrastructure and national law enforcement agencies undermine trust and are detrimental to intelligence sharing and interoperability in cross-border policing efforts. The deportation policies of Australia, New Zealand, and the United States are exacerbating crime and addiction within Pacific nations. They undermine the policy objectives of development partners in the region and will need urgent review.
Topic:
Crime, Non State Actors, Law Enforcement, Transnational Actors, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:
Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

20. The 2022 Philippine Elections Primer: A Democratic Citizenship Perspective

Author:
Anthony Lawrence Borja and Ian Jayson Hecita
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In regards to the 2022 presidential and vice-presidential elections in Philippines, Anthony Lawrence Borja and Ian Jayson Hecita, Assistant Professorial Lecturers at the Department of Political Science and Development Studies of De La Salle University, analyze the issue of democratic citizenship. The authors state that the prospects of democratization in the Philippines are weak due to resurgent illiberalism among citizens and chronic weaknesses among key liberal democratic institutions. Therefore the importance of promoting strong democratic citizenship is highlighted by the authors as they argue that the absence of an active citizenry, ability to effectively participate in the policy process, leads to the doom of democratization.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

21. The 2022 Philippine Elections: Religion and Politics amid Democratic Uncertainty Commentary·Issue Briefing | 2022-04-19

Author:
David T. Buckley
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The Philippines is the only Catholic country in Asia and as such, the majority of Filipinos are adherents to Catholicism. Professor David T. Buckley from the University of Louisville discusses the relationship between democracy and religion in the Philippines. It is evident from recent history that religious networks are seen as the main guardians of Philippine democracy, requiring candidates to be morally honest and serve the country. However, Professor Buckley states that, though not the only cause, religion also played an important role in democratic transition. He further suggests that religious networks must respond to a new political reality that has changed both religiously and politically since the mythologized days of the 1980s.
Topic:
Religion, Elections, Democracy, and Catholic Church
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

22. Australian views on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

Author:
Huon Curtis, Samantha Hoffman, and Gatra Priyandita
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Australian officials surveyed for this research view the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) as an opportunity to bring more investment into the Indo-Pacific region, shape standards setting, form collective solutions to supply-chain risks, and influence the direction of clean energy infrastructure. The IPEF is viewed as a potentially innovative way to boost regional investment rather than as a mechanism to strengthen the usual substance of trade agreements, such as market access into the US. While we note that the officials interviewed aren’t the ultimate decision-makers and that there’s a new government in Canberra with its own emerging priorities, this report offers insight into the potential opportunities for Australia to shape the framework.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Cybersecurity, and Economy
Political Geography:
Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

23. North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: views from The Strategist, Volume 5

Author:
John Coyne
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre’s latest report is a series of articles published in The Strategist over the last six months, building on previous volumes by identifying critical intersections of national security, nation-building and Australia’s north. This issue, like previous volumes, includes a wide range of articles sourced from a diverse pool of expert contributors writing on topics as varied as biosecurity, infrastructure, critical communications, cyber-resilience, maritime infrastructure, foreign investment, space, and Indigenous knowledge-sharing. It also features a foreword by ASPI’s new Executive Director, Justin Bassi. The 19 articles propose concrete, real-world actions for policy-makers to facilitate the development, prosperity and security of Australia’s north. The authors share a sense that those things that make the north unique – its vast space, low population density, specific geography, and harsh investment environment – are characteristics that can be leveraged, not disadvantages.
Topic:
Defense Policy and National Security
Political Geography:
Australia and Asia-Pacific

24. Northern sovereign maritime sustainment

Author:
John Coyne and Gill Savage
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
This special report explores the future of maritime sustainment in northern Australia through the lens of regional maintenance centres proposed under the Department of Defence’s Plan Galileo. Included in the report is consideration of the strategic environment and implications for the north, overview of the Australian Navy maritime sustainment, Plan Galileo, and discussion of US maritime sustainment model. Maritime sustainment in Australia’s north presents far-reaching opportunities and new challenges for the Department of Defence, industry and local governments. Traditional Defence and industry models used in Australia’s southern states have less utility in the north if they aren’t adapted to the region’s unique economic context. As such, a deeper understanding of industry capability in the north coupled with greater collaboration and partnering is needed to overcome those challenges and take advantage of the opportunities. In developing the report, the authors consulted a wide range of stakeholders. They included representatives from the Department of Defence, people representing the interests of the state, territory and local governments in northern Australia, port operators in Australia’s north, business organisations and the defence industry. The report highlights opportunities that could arise from improved collaboration between Defence, local governments, defence industry and SMEs. This report has again reinforced the need for the Australia government to articulate how it will utilise northern Australia’s strategic geography as a strength both now and in a future conflict if deterrence fails. The Australian Government needs to consider how to harness interests from different fields and identify points where the government may have to intervene with policies—and investments—that shape and enhance market forces. That’s a big shift from just thinking through how it ‘might’ take advantage of market forces and existing capacity and capability as circumstances change.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Sovereignty, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Australia and Asia-Pacific

25. Meeting Antarctica’s diplomatic challenges: Joint approaches for Australia and the United States

Author:
Evan T. Bloom
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
This report describes current security and environmental policy challenges related to Antarctica and proposes options for Australia and the United States to address them. It assesses the current and potential future actions of strategic competitors like China and Russia, and proposes policy responses. It suggests ways in which the US and Australian governments can work more closely to protect and promote the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), advancing support for an approach to governance that the two nations have felt for decades is in their respective national interests. This requires both countries (as well as others) to make a clear-eyed assessment of current and future fault lines and move more quickly to address political and environmental challenges that have implications well beyond Antarctica. In particular, this involves determining when it’s necessary to counter the ambitions of strategic competitors, such as China and Russia, in the Antarctic context, and when cooperation may be the more appropriate objective. The current Antarctic governance regime, while far from perfect... achieves a great deal that’s in the long-term national interests of Australia and the US. The ATS shouldn’t be dismissed as out of date; it can still be effective in addressing core regional concerns of both countries. Both countries can use their influence to insist on the implementation by all countries of ATS rules and can invoke those rules to fight for environmental protection and policies that support scientists. It’s unlikely that a more effective set of treaties could be negotiated today. Australia and the US should spend more time at both senior and working levels to coordinate positions and on outreach to other governments on Antarctic issues.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and National Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Antarctica

26. Producing policy-relevant China research and analysis in an era of strategic competition

Author:
Samantha Hoffman
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
This brief report explores the challenge of producing policy-relevant China research and analysis. Policy-relevant research is defined as work that drives action, affects decision-making, or both. It’s the kind of research think tanks seek to do, bridging the gap between academia and civil servants who work on policy. This paper focuses on two key findings: There’s a distinction between conducting policy-relevant research and the process of disseminating it in a way that will effectively shape and influence the policy process in particular places by particular policy- and decision-makers. In practice, the difference between the two isn’t always clearly understood and perhaps not clearly taught. There’s limited training that prepares the China analytical community to deal with the challenges of producing policy-relevant research under conditions of restricted access to China. Researchers require more support in navigating the research environment and filling skill-set gaps.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Cybersecurity, Strategic Competition, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

27. AUKUS Update #1: May 2022

Author:
Marcus Hellyer and Ben Stevens
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
On the 16th of September 2021, the leaders of Australia, the UK and the US announced the creation of a new trilateral security partnership called ‘AUKUS’—Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. The three national leaders stated, ‘We will foster deeper integration of security and defense-related science, technology, industrial bases, and supply chains. And in particular, we will significantly deepen cooperation on a range of security and defense capabilities.’ At a time of rapidly increasing strategic uncertainty, when it’s increasingly clear that authoritarian regimes are willing to use military power to achieve their goals, it’s important to monitor the implementation of AUKUS so that governments and the public can assess whether it’s achieving the goal of accelerating the fielding of crucial military technologies. To track the implementation of AUKUS, ASPI will publish regular updates on progress. This is the first of those updates.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Alliance, and AUKUS
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

28. The Offsetting Mechanism in Guangdong Province’s ETS: Lessons Learned and the Way Forward

Author:
Yang Shu
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
As one of the first low-carbon pioneering provinces in China, Guangdong launched its carbon market in 2013. An important design feature of the Guangdong Province emissions trading system (ETS) has been the use of offset credits. This brief, in both Chinese and English, explores the Guangdong ETS’s offset mechanism and its possible future evolution. The brief builds on discussions in an online research workshop on Guangdong Province’s ETS, conducted June 16 – 17, 2021 by the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements and the Research Center for Climate Change, Guangdong University of Technology, directed by Professor Zeng Xuelan. Information on the workshop, including the agenda, participant list, and most presentations, is here. The Harvard Project’s initiative on Guangdong Province’s ETS is supported by Energy Foundation China.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific

29. Increasing the Emissions-Reduction Efficiency of Carbon Trading Schemes in China Under the “30.60” Target: Reflection on the Carbon Markets of Guangdong Province, China

Author:
Chen Shaoqing
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Key Points: • Guangdong currently has two pilot carbon-emissions-trading markets (in Shenzhen — and in Guangzhou, for the remainder of Guangdong Province). The Guangdong—Hong Kong—Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) carbon market will be established in the near future. Therefore, Guangdong Province has regional advantages in innovation in the low-carbon field. • In September 2020, China announced its intention to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. To meet its responsibilities under the “30.60” target, GBA needs to choose a less costly and more efficient way to reduce emissions, build resilience to climate impacts, and promote green economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. • In terms of accounting methods, life-cycle accounting from production and consumption perspectives should be the methodological basis for cities, parks, and enterprises to participate in carbon trading. • Trading activity in China’s carbon markets needs to be increased. In the future, carbon markets can gradually be opened to small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals, and cross-border trade can also be included in carbon trading mechanisms, with proper risk management. • At present, carbon quotas in local pilots and the national market are allocated freely. In the future, a reasonable mix of auctioned allocation and free allocation can be considered to establish a transparent, fair, and dynamic carbon-quota-allocation mechanism. • After starting with the electricity industry, the national carbon market will continue to include other key high-carbon industries; China should seek balanced development between local pilots and the national carbon market to improve the efficiency of emission reduction.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Air Pollution
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific

30. Conflict in Two Theaters? European Misperceptions about the Asia-Pacific

Author:
Elisabeth Suh
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine is being heralded as a moment of strategic clarity for Europe about the return of revisionist power politics. While the immediate neighborhood remains the main concern, European strategists are worried about a second source of risk: violent revisionism in the Asia-Pacific. The United States has already shifted its center of strategic gravity to the Pacific, but conflicts brewing there also require a European response.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Political stability, Conflict, Violence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Asia-Pacific

31. Clean Energy Transitions in the Pacific Islands Present Opportunities for Strategic US Economic Partnerships

Author:
Kalim U. Shah
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Kalim U. Shah, Professor of Energy and Environmental Policy and Director of the Island Policy Lab, Joseph R. Biden Jr. School of Public Policy and Administration, University of Delaware, explains that with some locales "targeting as much as 100% renewables for their energy mix… [t]he modernization of the Pacific Islands’ energy sector promises to strengthen local economies and enhance the quality of life for residents"
Topic:
Partnerships, Economy, Renewable Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Oceania

32. Understanding the Political Anatomy of the “Forward Edge”: The Case of Guam

Author:
Kenneth Gofigan Kuper
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Kenneth Gofigan Kuper, Assistant Professor of Political Science and Micronesian Studies at the University of Guam and Director of the Pacific Center for Island Security, dissects the political anatomy of Guam and explores the interplay between the island's status as a US territory and key US strategic concerns in the Pacific.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Guam

33. A Micronesian Perspective on Migration to the United States: Salty Feet Among Fellow People of the Sea

Author:
James A. Naich and Mary Therese Perez Hattori
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
James A. Naich, East-West Center Diplomatic Consultant and former Federated States of Micronesia diplomat, & Mary Therese Perez Hattori, EdD, Interim Director, Pacific Islands Development Program at the East-West Center, examine the "western and indigenous terms used in discussions of migration to illuminate and facilitate inclusion of Micronesian perspectives in this dialogue."
Topic:
Migration, Indigenous, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Micronesia

34. NATO's Asia-Pacific Partners & Their Ukraine Response: Why Global Partnerships Matter for America

Author:
Kimery Lynch
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Kimery Lynch, a Projects Coordinator at the East-West Center in Washington, explains how NATO has been stepping up engagement with its four “Asia-Pacific partners” (Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand) in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Topic:
NATO, Partnerships, Engagement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, Ukraine, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

35. 75 Years of Philippines-US Relations: From Strategic Partnership to Multifaceted Relationship

Author:
Maria Elissa J. Lao and Severo Madrona Jr.
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Maria Elissa J. Lao, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Ateneo de Manila University, and Severo Madrona Jr., Lecturer, Department of History, Ateneo de Manila University, explain how US-Philippine Relations evolved "from a strategic military and economic partnership into a multifaceted relationship encompassing cultural, social, and governance cooperation."
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Strategic Interests, and Military
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

36. Challenges and Gains in Military Relations between the Philippines and the United States

Author:
Leslie V. Advincula-Lopez
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Leslie V. Advincula-Lopez, Development Studies Program and Institute of Philippine Culture Ateneo de Manila University, explains how, "changes in the global socio-political environment forced the Philippines and the United States to continuously re-calibrate the forms and mechanisms of their defense cooperation."
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Military
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

37. US-Philippine Defense Cooperation for Maritime Security

Author:
Jennifer Oreta
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Jennifer Oreta, coordinator of Ateneo Initiative for Southeast Asian Studies, and Asst Prof of the Department of Political Science, Ateneo de Manila University Philippines, explains that "[t]he chief maritime security concerns in contemporary Southeast Asia are piracy, terrorism at sea, and China’s seizure of contested islands in the South China Sea."
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and South China Sea

38. Philippine-United States Trade Relations: Looking Back and a Way Forward

Author:
Marissa Maricosa A. Paderon
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Marissa Maricosa A. Paderon, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics at the Ateneo de Manila University and current Commissioner at the Philippine Tariff Commission, explains how the two nations have forged relationships across many sectors of trade, especially electronics and agriculture, and discusses the importance of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) and US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in Philippine-US economic relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Agriculture, Economics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

39. A Proverbial Shot in the Arm: US Investment Is Key to Boost Philippine Economic Recovery and Resilience

Author:
Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, Director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development explains that "despite all the challenges faced by the Philippines, the United States continues to be a huge source of fresh equity capital (one of three components of FDI). Among 123 equity capital sources, the United States is the second largest..."
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Investment, Resilience, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

40. Running Out of Gas in the Philippines: A Boon or Bane?

Author:
Majah-Leah V. Ravago
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Majah-Leah V. Ravago, Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University, former Program Director of a USAID energy policy grant, and East-West Center Graduate Fellowship alumnae, explains that "[t]he COVID-19 pandemic and the anticipated depletion of the Malampaya proffer opportunities to facilitate an efficient transition to cleaner energy."
Topic:
Gas, Industry, COVID-19, and Energy
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

41. The Philippines-US Development Partnership

Author:
Diana J. Mendoza
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Diana J. Mendoza, Assistant professor of political science at the Ateneo de Manila University and director of the Ateneo Initiative for Southeast Asian Studies, explains how in the post-World War II era, US official development assistance (ODA) to the Philippines has undergone multiple shifts in emphasis in accordance with priorities determined by the US Congress.
Topic:
Development, History, Foreign Aid, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

42. The Complex History of US-Philippine Health Partnerships

Author:
Leslie V. Advincula-Lopez
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Leslie V. Advincula-Lopez, Development Studies Program and Institute of Philippine Culture Ateneo de Manila University, explains that, "[l]ong before the term, global health diplomacy (GHD) became a buzzword in international relations, an efficient Philippine public health system... was a focal point of US-Philippine relations."
Topic:
Diplomacy, Health, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

43. Consolidation, Contestation and Convergence: Revisiting American Influence on the Development of Philippine Social Sciences

Author:
Enrique Nino Leviste
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Enrique Nino P. Leviste, Associate Professor, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Ateneo de Manila University explains that "the emergence of specialized social science disciplines came about with the establishment of academic departments in the early American colonial period, circa 1900."
Topic:
Development, Education, and Social Science
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

44. Examining Philippine-US Cooperation Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic: Setting a Broader Agenda for Educating Filipino Children and Youth

Author:
Glenda Lopez Wui
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Ma. Glenda Lopez Wui, Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Ateneo de Manila University, explains that “[t]he US Government has been providing support to the Philippines to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on Filipino students,” including providing nearly $3 million in funds and equipment to support education delivery.
Topic:
Education, Bilateral Relations, COVID-19, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

45. No Time to Lose: Renew the Compacts of Free Association

Author:
Emil Friberg
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Emil Friberg, PhD., Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University, former Assistant Director/Senior Economist at US GAO, explains that "[a]nnual US Compact assistance is a strategic bilateral connection at a time of mounting security concerns."
Topic:
Security, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:
North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Micronesia

46. The COVID-19 Pandemic in Oceania: Health Policy Decisions Matter

Author:
Neal A. Palafox and Wilfred C. Alik
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Neal A. Palafox, MD, MPH, Professor, Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, John A. Burns School of Medicine, University of Hawaii, & Wilfred C. Alik, MD, Clinic Chief for the Kaiser Permanente Medical Center in Hilo, HI, Co-Founder of the Micronesian Health Advisory Coalition, and Chairman of Marshallese COVID-19 Task Force, "articulate a disparate range of pandemic experiences across Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), in terms of COVID 19 community transmission, cases, mortality, and vaccination rates."
Topic:
Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Oceania

47. EU – Pacific Talks: H2 – Hydrogen Hype

Author:
David Plhák
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Czechia is in many respects similar to Japan in its limited ability to rely fully on renewables. It is therefore in the interest of Czechia to increase hydrogen imports and its use in the energy mix. In order to ensure a steady supply of hydrogen the gas system operators of Czechia, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Germany launched in 2021 joined initiative to create a Central European Hydrogen corridor in an effort to create a supply of hydrogen from Ukraine. Unfortunately, given the Russian aggression on Ukraine, this project must be stopped, until Ukraine will be free of war again.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Economy, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:
Japan, Ukraine, Germany, Asia-Pacific, Slovakia, European Union, and Czechia

48. Biden’s Foreign Policy Casts a Long Shadow

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Upon taking office as US president, Joseph R. Biden vowed he would bring the United States back to the centre of the international stage after the erratic course followed by Donald Trump. One year later, it can hardly be said that he has been successful.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

49. Economic Security in Emerging Markets: A Look at India, Vietnam, and Indonesia

Author:
Matthew Goodman, Matthew Reynolds, and Julianne Fittipaldi
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
With the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chain resilience has emerged as a policy priority of the United States and its allies. The issue of supply chains has also raised the profile of emerging economies that offer possible alternatives to China as production platforms for multinational firms. This report surveys economic security policy developments in three major emerging economies: India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. It finds that all are attempting to take advantage of this new focus on supply chain resilience, while (to varying degrees) balancing the economic security risks posed by China’s rise. The United States and its allies have an opportunity to work with these emerging economies to shape their decisions about trade, investment, and technology policies in ways that promote mutual economic security and enhance international economic rules and norms.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Indonesia, India, Asia, Vietnam, and Asia-Pacific

50. The Emergence of African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement and Lessons from the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement

Author:
Samuel Igbatayo
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Africa’s regional integration agenda arrived at a cross roads in 2019, with the adoption of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. The AfCFTA framework came into force on 30th May, 2019, with its ratification by The Gambia, which brought the total number of African Union (AU) member state ratifications to twenty-two, the minimum threshold for AfCFTA implementation (Baker McKenzie 2019). As of May; 2022, forty-three of the 55 African countries have ratified the AfCFTA agreement (African Union 2018). The 12th Extraordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union in Niamey on 7th July; 2019, witnessed the launching of AfCFTA’s operational phase, which is governed by five instruments, namely: the rules of origin, the online negotiating forum, the monitoring and elimination of non-tariff barriers; a digital payment system and the African Trade Observatory. In addition, the beginning of trade under the terms of the agreement was set for July 1, 2020 (TRALAC 2020). A free trade agreement (FTA) can be aptly described as a pact between two or more countries on areas in which they agree to lift most or all tariffs, and other barriers to imports and exports among them (Barone 2019). Under a free trade framework, goods and services can be traded across international borders, with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitions to inhibit their exchange. The theory of free trade Agreements is rooted in classical economics, dating back to the era of Adam Smith. During this period, David Ricardo (1772-1823), a British political economist, was acknowledged with pioneering thoughts on free trade as a key instrument for wealth accumulation. The evolution of preferential trade agreements is traceable to the rise of European countries after World War II, with the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951, a development that eventually culminated in the creation of the European Union (EU) (Johnston 2019). Spurred by the success of regional bodies with free trade agreements and Africa’s poor trading performance; estimated at a paltry 3% of annual global trade, the African Union embarked upon the creation of the AfCFTA agreement as a tool for Intra-Africa trade and regional integration.
Topic:
Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Regional Integration, and Free Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia-Pacific