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302. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Climate Change & Policy
- Author:
- Edward J. Erickson, J. Brooks Flippen, Michael Reis, Rebecca Pincus, Ralph H. Espach, David Zvijac, Ronald Filadelfo, Catherine M. Schkoda, Shawna G. Cuan, and E. D. McGrady
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- MCU Press (MCUP) proudly offers readers this special issue of MCU Journal (MCUJ) that focuses on the past, present, and future impact of climate change and policy. While it is not our intent to take a political or philosophical stance on the issue, we do intend to use this medium to inspire discussion on how U.S. agencies and Service branches address the subject based on operational demands, political pressure, and public opinion. Readers might wonder how this global topic impacts the U.S. Marine Corps; however, the two are not such disparate concepts, particularly when we consider the connection between climate change impacts and humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations the Corps has supported as early as 1895. This special issue of the journal also represents the strategic direction of the new editorial board and MCUP staff who intend to address topics of value to the Marine Corps, Marine Corps University, and the larger Department of Defense community. Our priority, in addition to timely and relevant content, is to engage civilian scholars and analysts, such as J. Brooks Flippen at Southeastern Oklahoma State University; Michael Reis at History Associates Inc.; our partners at CNA, Ralph Espach, David Zvijac, Ronaldo Filadelfo, Catherine Schkoda, Shawna Cuan, and E. D. McGrady; and professional military education instructors, such as Edward Erickson at MCU and Rebecca Pincus at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy. Future issues of MCUJ also will include articles written by military personnel who understand the value of their perspectives and the importance of that knowledge not being lost once a deployment or active duty ends. MCUJ offers readers truly engaged authors from a myriad of backgrounds, with a variety of professional experience, and whose perceptions are important in the policy world.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Government, Migration, National Security, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, Military Affairs, European Union, and History
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia-Pacific, Global Focus, and United States of America
303. Trading Down: Unemployment, Inequality and Other Risks of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement
- Author:
- Jeronim Capaldo and Alex Izurieta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Proponents of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited projections suggest modest GDP gains after ten years, varying from less than half a percentage point in the United States to 13 percent in Vietnam. However, these projections assume full employment and constant income distribution in all countries excluding some of the major risks of trade liberalization. In this paper, we provide alternative projections of the TPP’s economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model. Allowing for changes in employment and income distribution, we obtain very different results. We find that the benefits to economic growth are even smaller than those projected with full-employment models, and are negative for Japan and the United States. More important, we find that the TPP will likely lead to losses in employment and increases in inequality.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Inequality, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Unemployment
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, Vietnam, North America, and Asia-Pacific
304. On Political Forgiveness: Some Preliminary Reflections
- Author:
- Wendy Sherman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines political forgiveness, when countries or groups are able to reconcile or set aside historic enmities. The inability to overcome longstanding grievances—however justified and deeply rooted—often undermine a group’s or nation’s current core interests. This lack of forgiveness manifests throughout the world: tribal warfare in South Sudan, hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran, seemingly irreconcilable differences within the European neighborhood, and the failure to reach a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians. Deep animus often seems to take precedence over interests. What conditions are necessary for political forgiveness, and through what process is it achieved? How is it that some countries, like Germany, have been able to find their way through this thicket, while others, such as Japan, have not—or at least not to a comparable extent? And, in cases of genocide, such as Rwanda, where political forgiveness may well be impossible, should the international community more purposefully examine the social license extended to victims? Ambassador Wendy Sherman makes the case that insights from frameworks of personal forgiveness can help nations seize the moment when their interests align and, accordingly, move to achieve political forgiveness. First, the process of forgiveness requires a sense of justice—victims must feel that perpetrators have been held accountable and will no longer be able to hurt them. It must also be a deep, extended undertaking: when perpetrators offer only superficial acknowledgments of the victims’ pain and attempt to move on quickly, victims perceive those efforts as perfunctory, even disingenuous. Additionally, countries must reestablish genuine, ongoing contact to overcome narratives of “the other” that inhibit forgiveness. They should not assume, however, that political forgiveness will proceed as a linear, three-part process in which the perpetrator issues an apology, the victim accepts the apology, and the two subsequently cultivate their ties on the basis of aligned national interests. This examination finds that the process works best in the reverse order: only upon discerning that their strategic interests happen to align do conflicting countries begin to move toward reconciliation and forgiveness.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, International Security, and Forgiveness
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Asia-Pacific
305. A Pivot to What? Asia-Pacific Foreign Policy under Trump
- Author:
- Marc Lanteigne
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Despite the difficulty in making predictions about an incoming American administration even before the inaugural process has been completed, the first two months since the US elections in November 2016 have already generated a great deal of debate and concern, about uncharted new directions in US foreign policy under president elect Donald Trump. Certainly the new president faces a host of international challenges,including Middle East security and chaotic relations with Russia, but arguably the most critical tests for the incoming government will be found in the Asia-Pacific region. As within other areas of foreign policy, Trump as a candidate oscillated,at times wildly, between interventionism and isolationism in his approach to Pacific Rim affairs, and as the year came to a close there was much watching and waiting in policy circles to see which of these would dominate. In addition, Trump assumes the presidency with the dubious distinction of possessing the lowest amount of foreign policy background in the history of American politics, so there is also the question of his administration’s ‘learning’ curve in crucial areas including the Asia-Pacific, with China relations at the forefront.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Military Intervention, Donald Trump, and Isolationism
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
306. Paving the Way for Investment in Geothermal Power Deployment in Developing Countries
- Author:
- Thomas Adisorn
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and Peace
- Abstract:
- Geothermal power represents a unique source of electricity, for instance due to its low-carbon and base-load character. Some developing countries have a great potential for deploying geothermal power and, thus, for providing climate-friendly electricity to their economies and people. However, in order to reap the benefits of geothermal power substantial barriers must be overcome. By having screened the relevant literature, important hurdles to geothermal power deployment were defined: financing barriers, institutional barriers and uncertainty, lack of human resources, information barriers and social opposition. Through desk research carried out for Indonesia and Kenya, both of which are frontrunners in terms of installed geothermal power capacity, this study identifies options that contribute to overcoming aforementioned barriers. Hence, it offers recommendations primarily to developing countries in order to realize geothermal power production and, thus, to contribute to climate change mitigation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Renewable Energy
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, Indonesia, and Asia-Pacific
307. Unconventional Monetary Policy, Spillovers, and Liftoff: Implications for Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Unconventional monetary policy (UMP) has had predictable effects. How exit plays out is scenario-dependent. Quantitative easing has had the predictable effect of encouraging currency depreciation and some partner countries may have attempted to offset these exchange rate effects. Korea presents a particularly interesting case: it is relatively small and relatively open and integrated, in both trade and financial terms, with the United States and Japan, two practitioners of UMP. Authorities have acted to limit the won's appreciation primarily against the currency of China, not the US or Japan. Nevertheless, Korea's policy is a source of tension with the US. Under legislation currently being considered, the currency manipulation issue could potentially interfere with Korean efforts to attract direct investment from the US and create an obstacle to Korea joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Markets
- Political Geography:
- Korea and Asia-Pacific
308. El Niño Strengthens in the Pacific: Preparing for the Impacts of Drought
- Author:
- Victoria Keener, H. Annamalai, Matthew J. Widlansky, and Jan Hafner
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- A drought is moving through the Pacific Islands, brought by one of the strongest El Niño events since record keeping began 60 years ago. It started in the southwest Pacific, where it has brought famine to Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu. It is expected to reach the South Pacific, tropical West Pacific, and Hawaiian Islands between December 2015 and May 2016, potentially affecting 4.7 million people. While the effect of El Niño in the Pacific Islands receives little global attention, it has already proved severe, particularly among vulnerable island populations. Prolonged drought can compromise not only freshwater supplies and food security, but can also have cascading impacts on public health, economies, food distribution, and even trigger civil unrest. Past experiences with regional drought, current actions being taken, and the most current predictions for El Niño’s anticipated effects on the Pacific Islands, suggest strategies that governments and aid groups can take to prepare for this powerful climate event.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Disaster Relief, Human Welfare, and Natural Disasters
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific
309. Strategic Insights: If You Want Peace, Prepare for War: Reflections on China's V—Day Parade
- Author:
- Dr. David Lai
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The Chinese government conducted a military parade to commemorate the “70th Anniversary of the Victory of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War” on September 3, 2015. Although Chinese President Xi Jinping uttered “peace” 18 times in his brief opening remarks and Chinese government propaganda flooded China’s media with massive unqualified praise afterward, this show of force was by no means a blessing for peace. On the contrary, it arguably will cast a shadow over China’s outreach in the Asia-Pacific region for years to come.
- Topic:
- War, Governance, Peacekeeping, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia-Pacific
310. Duffer’s Shoal: A Strategic Dream of the Pacific Command Area of Responsibility
- Author:
- Colonel Russell N. Bailey, Colonel (NZ) Christopher J. Parsons, Elizabeth R. Smith, Lieutenant Colonel J. O'Malley, Lieutenant Colonel Bob Dixon, and Ms. Laura McAleer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This strategic assessment seeks to go beyond a traditional comparative analysis of the military, technological, political, cultural, and economic factors governing the relationships and capabilities of the Asia Pacific environment. To make sense of the intrinsic complexities unique to this region, we endeavor to broaden our view and rely on a tool often overlooked in government studies: imagination. Moreover, we aim to offer a strategic document that is readable, instructive, and provocative. Pulling from a well-referenced piece of military teaching, this assessment borrows a learning concept first employed in 1904 by Major General Sir Ernest Dunlop Swinton in "The Defence of Duffer’s Drift." This fictional story describes the plight of young Lieutenant Backsight Forethought as he commands a 50-man platoon tasked to hold a tactically critical piece of land called Duffer’s Drift. The story unfolds in a series of six dreams, where the blunders of the unwitting lieutenant lead to disaster. As the dreams progress, he harnesses the lessons of each of his failures, and by applying these lessons, his platoon ultimately defends Duffer’s Drift.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Governance, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Asia-Pacific
311. Full Issue: Money & War
- Author:
- Sarah Detzner, James Copnall, Alex de Waal, Ian M. Ralby, Joshua Stanton, Ibrahim Warde, Leon Whyte, Richard Weitz, Jessica Knight, John H. Maurer, Alexander Tabarrok, Alex Nowrasteh, Tom Keatinge, Emily Knowles, Karolina MacLachlan, Andrew Lebovich, Caroline Troein, and Anne Moulakis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- The Fletcher Security Review: Managed and edited by students at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, we build on the Fletcher School’s strong traditions of combining scholarship with practice, fostering close interdisciplinary collaboration, and acting as a vehicle for groundbreaking discussion of international security. We believe that by leveraging these strengths – seeking input from established and up-and-coming scholars, practitioners, and analysts from around the world on topics deserving of greater attention – we can promote genuinely unique ways of looking at the future of security. Each issue of the Review is centered around a broad theme – in this issue, we tackle “Money & War.” Money influences every aspect of warfare, conventional or unconventional. No nationstate military, insurgent group, terrorist network, trans-national criminal organization, or hybrid actor can be understood, or countered, without knowing where the money is coming from – as well as where, and how, it gets spent. Evolutions and revolutions in financial tools and practices quickly translate to transformations in military affairs, and some cases, vice versa.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, Governance, Sanctions, Military Affairs, Finance, Islamic State, Navy, Arab Spring, Maritime, Conflict, Multilateralism, Islamism, Drugs, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, China, Iran, Sudan, Darfur, Middle East, Asia, North Korea, Mali, Asia-Pacific, Sahel, United States of America, and North America
312. Enough to Go Around? Money Matters Complicate U.S. Strategic Rebalance to Asia-Pacific
- Author:
- Leon Whyte and Richard Weitz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- The U.S. Strategic Rebalance to Asia – also known as the “Asia Pivot” – has been a cornerstone of the Obama administration’s foreign policy since 2011. Hillary Clinton offered a detailed explaination of the concept in a 2011 Foreign Policy article.[1] The basic idea behind the Rebalance is that many U.S. core economic and security interests are increasingly centered in the Asia-Pacific region, so the United States needs to allocate more diplomatic, economic, military, and other assets towards the region. The Strategic Rebalance would do just that. The Defence Strategic Guidance relaeased by the Defence Department in January 2012 made supporting the rebalance a key Pentagon objective. The Obama Administration accordingly plans to increase the percentage of naval assets in the Pacific to 60 percent by 2020[2] in addition to stationing 2,500 Marines in Darwin, Australia, and 4 littoral combat ships in Singapore.[3][4] Given the region’s economic importance, this makes sense. The Asia-Pacific region accounted for 40 percent of global economic growth in 2013. In 2012, the U.S. exports to the region totaled $555 billion, which supported 2.8 million U.S. jobs.[5]
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific and United States of America
313. Embattled Superpowers
- Author:
- John H. Maurer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- On the eve of the Second World War, the noted journalist John Gunther could still maintain that: “Great Britain, as everyone knows, is the greatest Asiatic power.”[1] The British Empire in Asia controlled a vast territory and large population, sweeping in a great arc from New Zealand and Australia in the South Pacific, to Southeast Asia and South China, and on to India and the Middle East. Britain stood as a superpower with economic interests and security commitments stretching around the globe, much as the United States stands today. That position of leadership, however, was endangered. The emergence of major new industrial great powers was transforming the international landscape. These challengers, as they converted their growing economic strength into military power, confronted Britain’s leaders with uncomfortable strategic choices. In Asia, one of those rising challengers, imperial Japan, posed a dangerous threat to Britain’s standing as a world power after it embarked on a policy of expansion. We know the outcome of Japan’s challenge: war and the catastrophic breakdown of Britain’s standing in Asia. The collapse of British power was in part brought about by dynamic changes in technology and the lethality of modern weaponry, particularly the advent of naval aviation, which shifted the naval balance in Japan’s favor. On the eve of war, Britain sought to deter Japan by forming a naval force in the Pacific, known to history as Force Z, consisting of the battleship Prince of Wales and battle cruiser Repulse. Even as Force Z steamed eastward, the Admiralty could spare none of its aircraft carriers, to protect it from air attack. Nor did the Royal Air Force have enough modern aircraft based in the Far East to offer adequate protection for Force Z. Britain’s inability to control the skies meant the Royal Navy could not command the seas, and this permitted the Japanese to land ground forces in Malaya and seize Singapore, the strategic pivot of British defenses in Asia. Not since Yorktown had Britain suffered such a crushing setback. The world’s leading naval power had been bested by a challenger that exploited innovations in technology and doctrine to gain a marked qualitative edge in fighting power.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, History, Power Politics, Budget, and Navy
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Japan, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
314. Full Issue: Emerging Domains of Security
- Author:
- Meg Guliford, Thomas McCarthy, Alison Russell, Michael M. Tsai, Po-Chang Huang, Feng-tai Hwang, Ian Easton, Matthew Testerman, Nikolas Ott, Anthony Gilgis, Todd Diamond, Michael Wackenreuter, Sebastian Bruns, Andrew Mark Spencer, Wendy A. Wayman, and Charles Cleveland
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- The theme of this special edition is “Emerging Domains of Security.” Coupled with previously unpublished work developed under a prior “Winning Without War” theme, the articles therein honor Professor Martel’s diverse, yet forward-leaning, research interests. This edition maintains the journal’s four traditional sections of policy, history, interviews, and current affairs. Our authors include established academics and practitioners as well as two Fletcher students, Nikolas Ott and Michael Wackenreuter. Each of the articles analyzes critical issues in the study and practice of international security, and our authors make salient arguments about an array of security-related issues. The articles are borne out of countless hours of work by FSR’s dedicated editorial staff. I deeply appreciate the time and effort they devoted to the publication of this volume. They are full-time graduate students who masterfully balanced a host of responsibilities.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Intelligence, International Cooperation, International Law, History, Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, Cybersecurity, Navy, Conflict, Space, Interview, Army, Baath Party, and Norms
- Political Geography:
- China, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Taiwan, Germany, Asia-Pacific, Global Focus, and United States of America
315. The Asia-Pacific and the Royal Canadian Navy
- Author:
- Eric Lerhe
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Over the past five years, there have been repeated academic and media calls for greater Canadian engagement in the Asia-Pacific, with the Royal Canadian Navy taking the lead. Such engagement, it was claimed, was needed to reflect Canada’s increasing economic links, rapidly-growing personal ties to the area, and the deteriorating security climate, especially in the South China Sea. Despite government claims that Canada “gets it” as to the importance of the region, little of consequence has occurred and our Navy’s Atlantic dominance remains. For this and other reasons, Canada is now widely considered “absent” from the region. This paper argues that this cannot safely continue as both our security and our access to the rapidly growing Pacific economies will be at risk. The paper then examines our history in the area, the 2011 U.S. “Pacific pivot,” our own weak “mini pivot,” and the current security situation before providing detailed recommendations for greater Canadian naval engagement.
- Topic:
- International Affairs, Military Affairs, and Navy
- Political Geography:
- Canada, North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and South China Sea
316. Security ties or electoral connections? The US Congress and the Korea–US Free Trade Agreement, 2007–2011
- Author:
- Jungkun Seo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
- Institution:
- Japan Association of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Conventional wisdom is that trade policy is often guided by geopolitical security considerations. A growing body of research addresses the security–trade linkage as a plausible cause for executive negotiations over the Korea–US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) in 2007. Yet, the approval of a trade deal with the Asian ally by America's legislature in 2011 features not only ‘security ties’ but also ‘electoral connections’. This paper seeks to examine the question of whether alliance relationships would inevitably translate into domestic commitments. Bringing domestic politics into consideration, this article also fills the gap in the literature on Congress-focused research of the KORUS FTA and sheds light on how lawmakers strike a balance between the principle of US foreign policy and the reality of conflicting domestic interests.
- Topic:
- Security, Geopolitics, and Free Trade
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, Korea, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
317. Chinese Activities in the South China Sea: Implications for the American Pivot to Asia
- Author:
- Kelsey Broderick
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the background of the South China Sea dispute and the extent to which the American rebalance has influenced China’s actions in the Sea. Following an assessment of the legal definitions found in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and a look at China’s military developments, the paper concludes with a discussion on how the rebalance has failed to prevent China from unilaterally changing the status quo in the South China Sea and looks at ways the rebalance can become more effective in the future.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Military Affairs, and Law of the Sea
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and South China Sea
318. Human Rights Due Diligence through Stakeholder Engagement?
- Author:
- Brigitte Hamm and Anne Schax
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and Peace
- Abstract:
- The report examines to what extent stakeholder engagement as a form of private governance can contribute to a corporation’s human rights due diligence performance. It takes as the basis for investigation a case study of a stakeholder engagement program implemented by the oper- ating company SMI for a planned copper-gold mine in the Philippines during the project’s pre- operational phase. The analysis examines criteria for good stakeholder engagement set out by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and uses the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights as the conceptual framework. For the case investigated here, it is established that SMI’s stakeholder engagement program as well as the IFC’s guidelines evince several shortcomings from a human rights perspective, which in turn negatively affect other due dili- gence processes.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, United Nations, Governance, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and Global Focus