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2. Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future in Turkey and India, and Iran and Russia
- Author:
- Hugh Sandeman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- The institutions and practices necessary for open and fair competition for political power are eroding across the world. In some countries, such as Turkey and India, the democratic dividend of electoral competition has been steadily undermined by majoritarian autocrats who have proved adept in campaigning for office and winning elections. In others, such as Russia and Iran, political leaders have marginalised or suppressed electoral processes, reducing them to closely managed performances that seek to demonstrate public consent. At least some traces of the mechanisms of electoral competition often remain in place, however, even where genuine public consent has been almost extinguished. This leaves open the possibility that the trend away from competitive electoral politics could be at least partially reversed in future, in the context of political succession or the electoral defeat of incumbents. In June 2023, LSE IDEAS brought together experts from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and other institutions to examine the potential for restoring the democratic dividend of competitive politics in four major countries. Turkey and India were selected for their timeliness—national parliamentary and presidential elections were held in Turkey in May 2023, and national parliamentary elections are due in India in April 2024—and for their similarities: both political systems are characterised by powerful elected leaders with a strong record of performance in national elections, each backed by large political parties based on an appeal to national and religious identity. Iran and Russia were chosen as examples of two states where competitive electoral politics had been temporarily enabled by significant political change—respectively, an impasse in Iran’s theocracy in the 1990s, and the end of the Soviet Union—only to be undermined by the reassertion of autocratic power. Two assumptions underlay the planning of this discussion on ‘Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future’. The first is that the characterisation of political systems as either democratic or autocratic provides an insufficient basis for explaining many differences in the workings of political institutions, or for guiding policy. The second assumption is that while certain institutions and practices appear to be essential to maintaining open competition for political power—including for example, freedom and diversity of comment in major channels of communication like broadcast television, radio, newspapers, and social media—there is no useful empirical example or theoretical formulation of an ideal or perfect democratic political system. The exclusion from the discussion of countries with longer established forms of competitive politics, such as the United States or the United Kingdom, was not intended to suggest an implicit comparison with ideal types of functioning democracies. On the contrary, there are grounds for concern about the maintenance of open competition for political power in every country professing to be a democracy. As David Runciman has said of the future of democratic practices: ‘The question for the twenty-first century is how long we can persist with institutional arrangements we have grown so used to trusting, that we no longer notice when they have ceased to work.’ He warns that ‘democracy could fail while remaining intact’.
- Topic:
- Elections, Political stability, Autocracy, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, India, and Asia
3. Why Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential Election is Wide Open
- Author:
- Matthew Fulco
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Shortly after Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered the worst loss in its 37-year history, Nikkei Asia Review published an article entitled “Taiwan’s KMT has a mountain to climb for 2024 presidential race” that cautioned not to read too much into the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) success in the local elections last November (Nikkei Asia, November 29, 2022). The piece argued that voters still perceive the KMT as being too close to China, a liability in a national election focused on cross-Strait relations, and hamstrung by uncertainty about who should serve as its presidential candidate next year. Although the KMT confronts significant challenges heading into Taiwan’s 2024 elections, the difficulties the party faces should not be overestimated. Rather than a mountain, the KMT has a modest hill to climb. Over the past 22 years, Taiwan’s national politics have swung like a pendulum, favoring the DPP from 2000-2008, the KMT from 2008-2016 and the DPP again since 2016. Taiwanese voters, like their counterparts in other thriving democracies, sometimes vote for change even if they are not enamored with a particular candidate. Since Taiwan fully democratized in 1996, no political party has won three consecutive presidential terms, with DPP and KMT presidents alternating every eight years. President Tsai Ing-wen has avoided the kinds of issues, corruption scandals and major popular demonstrations against her policies that undid the presidencies of her predecessors, Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou, leading to opposition wins in the 2008 and 2016 presidential elections, respectively. Nevertheless, Tsai has been dramatically weakened by the DPP’s crushing defeat in the November 2022 local elections (Jamestown Foundation, November 29, 2022). She stepped down as DPP party chair after the elections as the party has taken a hit for its many pandemic missteps, a flagging economy and a contentious cross-Strait policy (United Daily News, November 27, 2022). The DPP’s likely candidate in the 2024 election, current Vice President Lai Ching-te, while personally popular, would represent continuity with Tsai’s policies (China Brief, March 3). Together, these factors will likely make the 2024 race the closest since 2004, when the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian and Annette Lu eked out a victory against the KMT’s Lien Chan and James Soong of the People First Party (PFP) by a margin of just 0.22 percent (Taipei Times, March 21, 2004).
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
4. The Future of U.S.-North Korea Relations After the 2022 U.S. Midterm Elections
- Author:
- Jungkun Seo
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Jungkun Seo, Professor at Kyung Hee University, claims that with the results of the midterm elections in favor of Biden and the Democrats, Biden could likely run for re-election. Added to this, he expects that there will be no innovative strategy to tackle North Korea as Biden would have no choice but to take a hardline stance ahead of the 2024 election if North Korea's provocations make a prominent security threat to the United States. Professor Seo emphasizes that it will be extremely difficult for the U.S. to find a new breakthrough to the stalled peace process on the Korean Peninsula.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
5. COVID-19 and Voter Turnout in Europe and in Korea
- Author:
- Dong-Hee Joe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Even while we are suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic, cyclical events arrive mercilessly as scheduled. While some of them are held virtually (i.e., online), some cannot be completely virtualized, at least as of now, including national elections. A major risk in holding an election during a pandemic is the increase of contagion due to the gathering of people in polling stations and campaign events. The opposite direction of causality, that is, from contagion to voter turnout, is another serious, but much less recognized, risk, because voters may refrain from voting due to health concerns. This Brief reviews some of the empirical studies on the relation between the prevalence of COVID-19 and voter turnout in recent elections in Europe and Korea. It also discusses their implications for election administration during pandemic.
- Topic:
- Elections, Voting, COVID-19, and Turnout
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, and South Korea
6. Taiwan’s Local Elections: Defeat of the Ruling DPP Amidst Negative Campaigns
- Author:
- Kai-Ping Huang
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Taiwan held “nine-in-one” local elections on November 26, 2022, and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) lost many seats amidst negative campaigns, while the KMT emerged as the winner of the election. However, Kai-Ping Huang, an Associate Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University, evaluates the biggest losers are voters who were not offered quality campaigns. Professor Huang defines the campaign’s major issues as Scandals of Plagiarism, Poor Quality of Infrastructure, Discredited Pandemic Control Performance and Economic Difficulties and Anti-China Campaign Backlash. In addition, she states that it is too early to say whether the KMT will have an advantage in the upcoming presidential election. The KMT must clarify its position on national identity. The Taipei voters don`t appreciate what the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has done to the capital, and most voters do not believe that the TPP is a credible alternative to the two mainstream parties. Therefore, TPP needs to coordinate with the KMT to defeat the ruling DPP can be an option.
- Topic:
- Education, Elections, Democracy, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan and Asia
7. Taiwan Update: Local Elections and Cross-Strait Relations
- Author:
- Hungdah Su Dean, Yeong-Kang Chen, Min-Hua Huang, Eric Yu, Yeh-Chung Lu, Andrew Nathan, and Thomas J. Christensen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- A high-level academic delegation will update our audience on current political events in Taiwan and developments in cross-strait relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
8. South Korea's Critical Moment in Digital Currency Policymaking: Between Regulating Cryptocurrencies and Launching a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)
- Author:
- June Park
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- Why is South Korea pilot-testing its Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), and what made it shift from non-issuance to consideration? This paper investigates the Bank of Korea (BOK)’s CBDC-related developments amid the geopolitical contest between the U.S. and China. It examines the Moon Jae-in administration’s defiance of decentralized finance (DeFi) and the BOK’s sudden shift from non-issuance to potential issuance, which led to expedited research, development, and pilot-testing of CBDCs. As in the case of the digital yuan, the BOK envisions a hybrid architecture for the digital won, wherein central banks and associated partner institutions are CBDC distributors, though they are distinguished by placing the digital won on distributed ledger technology rather than by centrally controlling it. However, South Korea’s previously rash decision to forego DeFi under an undemocratic process has deprived the country of the time and opportunity to develop new innovations as a leading country in the digital frontier. By sticking only to digitalizing centralized finance, the country now aims to be in “standby” mode for its CBDC launch if and when required, so as not to fall behind in digital financial architecture. This paper scrutinizes the South Korean government’s moves on crypto and CBDCs and argues that 1) the Moon administration has shown incapability in addressing DeFi amid the crypto boom and bust, and 2) the BOK’s shift from non-issuance to potential issuance of the digital won is driven by its interest to uphold central bank independence amid swaying geopolitics between the U.S. and China and an unpredictable upcoming presidential election in South Korea.
- Topic:
- Economics, Elections, Finance, Cryptocurrencies, and Digital Currency
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
9. China’s Role in Korean Security Issues
- Author:
- Gordon G. Chang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- China’s great power over North Korea eroded when COVID-19 control measures ended most trade with the Kim regime. Moreover, China’s conflicts with various countries mean Beijing cannot afford to alienate any friend, and Kim Jong Un knows that. Beijing is still influential in Seoul, but it lost much of its clout when the conservative-leaning candidate prevailed in the March 2022 presidential election. China will also suffer a loss in standing because it is paying less attention to Korean affairs and is closing itself off to the world.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Elections, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
10. How Authoritarian Legacies Play a Role in Shaping Electoral Volatility in Asia
- Author:
- Don S. Lee and Fernando Casel Bertoa
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- High electoral volatility can result in the disillusionment of the democratic system, allowing illiberal politicians and anti-political-establishment parties to gain a foothold. In this briefing, Don S. Lee, an Assistant Professor in the School of Governance and the Department of Public Administration at Sungkyunkwan University, and Fernando Casal Bertoa, an Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham, evaluate the impacts of different authoritarian legacies on electoral volatility across Asia. Their study also analyzes the effect time has on the electoral stability of democracies across varying authoritarian legacies. Finally, they explain how through deliberate routinization of political behavior, political leaders can protect democracy and stabilize party politics, regardless of their country’s authoritarian history.
- Topic:
- Politics, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Asia
11. South Korea’s 2022 Presidential Election: A Vox Populi that is Evenly Divided
- Author:
- Jung Kim
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- During the recent March election, presidential candidate Suk-yeol Yoon of the opposition party overtook candidate Jae-myung Lee of the current ruling party by a close margin. Jung Kim, Professor at the University of North Korean Studies, points out that upon entering office, present-elect Yoon will be faced with the challenges of a divided cabinet, divided government, and divided public. He explains that this is due to extensive partisan mobilization and that the future of Korean democracy lies in the Yoon administration`s response to such multi-level challenges.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
12. Parliamentary Elections in Sri Lanka During COVID-19
- Author:
- Krystle Reid Wijesuriya, Lasanthi Daskon, Shehara Athukorala, Silja Paasilinna, and Supriya Ramanathan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems
- Abstract:
- Sri Lanka’s most recent parliamentary election was held Aug. 5, 2020, after two postponements due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the district level, 196 members were elected through a proportional representation (PR) system, and 29 were appointed through a national list. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa was sworn in as prime minister Aug. 9 after his party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), secured 59 percent of the popular vote and 145 seats in Parliament. Overall, election observers commended the Election Commission of Sri Lanka’s (ECSL) efforts in conducting safe elections during the pandemic. Despite this success, challenges in election implementation also underscored changes that the ECSL should consider to ensure high level of participation and electoral integrity in future electoral cycles during crisis situations. To assess adaptive measures taken by the ECSL, challenges and key lessons learned, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) published Parliamentary Elections in Sri Lanka During COVID-19: Case Study on Crisis Management in Elections, which includes in-depth literature reviews from various sources, examination of the Sri Lankan national legal framework, assessments of international and national election observer reports, examination of public health guidelines issued by the Ministry of Health in Sri Lanka (MOH) and regulations and guidelines issued by the ECSL for voters, poll workers and other stakeholders. IFES gathered information based on the firsthand experience of providing technical support to the ECSL on a series of election operation efforts in the 2020 electoral period. The paper informed the identification of good practices implemented by the ECSL during the 2020 parliamentary election and lessons learned for future elections during times of crises.
- Topic:
- Elections, Voting, Political Crisis, and Political Participation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Sri Lanka
13. Women’s Political Representation in Sri Lanka
- Author:
- Shehara Athukorala, Supriya Ramanathan, Meredith Applegate, and Sarah Bibler
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems
- Abstract:
- Sri Lanka has taken some positive steps to address significant gaps in women’s electoral representation and achieve greater gender equality. One such step is the introduction of a quota at the local government level, and a new electoral system with a quota at the provincial level. However, women in Sri Lanka continue to face serious barriers to political representation, and the country ranks among the lowest in the world for the percentage of women in national legislatures. For example, the most recent parliamentary elections in 2020 resulted in just over 5 percent of elected women representatives in Parliament. This persistent underrepresentation of women combined with other recent trends — such as negative impacts of the global COVID-19 pandemic that further exacerbated gender inequalities — underscore the need for targeted action. To help inform stakeholders’ efforts to sustainably promote women’s political leadership and participation in Sri Lanka, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) published a research paper, Women’s Political Representation in Sri Lanka: Electoral System Analysis and Recommendations, which analyzes the current standing of women’s representation and the main reasons behind the underrepresentation of women in politics, and offers recommendations for how to address the underlying and persistent barriers.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Elections, Voting, and Political Participation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Sri Lanka
14. The Vote for Cambodia: Australia's Diplomatic Intervention
- Author:
- Richard Broinowski
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Australian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Under the supervision of the United Nations, Cambodia held its first democratic elections on the 23rd May 1993, an event which was hailed as a monumental victory for democracy. Australia played a prominent role in the lead-up. However, optimism that free and fair elections would continue to be held as a matter of course was eroded during the following years, and finally ended following the forced dissolution of Cambodia’s major opposition party, the Cambodian National Rescue Party, in 2017. Reflecting on his own experiences as a diplomat in the Department of External Affairs, Richard Broinowski AO dissects the impact of Australia’s contribution to the emergence of contemporary Cambodia. Whilst Australia played a prominent role in supporting the United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia to stabilise the region, it’s efforts to build a lasting democratic system is proving to be in vain. In this first-hand account, Broinowski strings together archival documents and private conversations with senior officials to recount Australia’s role in Cambodia’s tumultuous rise and evaluate the future of peace and stability in the country.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, United Nations, Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Election Observation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Cambodia
15. Assessing China and Russia’s Influence on the German Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Didi Kirsten Tatlow and András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- China and Russia want to maintain Germany’s political status quo: Centrist, at times mercantilist policies, have often worked in their favor. Now, with the Green Party ascendant and public opinion shifting, neither Russia nor China can be sure that classic "centrism” will emerge after September. Russia and China will increase their influence and interference efforts in the run-up to the election and beyond, using informational, political, and cyber tactics, and economic and political networks.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Public Opinion, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia
16. Digital Marketing of Political Parties in Turkey
- Author:
- Ramazan Aslan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- The only legitimate way for the political parties to get power in democratic countries is to achieve victory in the elections. In order to get more votes than the rival parties and thus win the election, political parties must offer political products that will meet the needs of the voters. In terms of determining the right political products, political parties need to be in constant communication and interaction with the voters to understand the needs of the voters. With the developing technology, new communication channels have emerged. Digital marketing channels, which are widely used mainly in marketing, attracted the attention of political parties over time and started to be used to communicate with their voters. Digital marketing channels, used extensively, present a significant opportunity for political parties to reach current and potential voters. In this study, digital marketing channels used by all political parties represented in the Turkish Grand National Assembly will be examined by the content analysis method. Thus, the usage rates of digital marketing in the political field will be comparatively revealed.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Elections, Digital Economy, Digital Culture, Digitization, and Party System
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
17. Japan's 2021 Elections: What Happened, What's Next?
- Author:
- Yusaku Horiuchi, Yesola Kweon, Charles McClean, and Daniel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- This event will take the form of a one-hour roundtable (~10 minutes for each speaker plus Q&A) of experts’ views on the main takeaways from the 2021 Japanese general election, which was held on October 31st, 2021. This roundtable of experts will explain the results of the election, and what they might signify for Japan’s domestic and foreign policy going forward. This event is cosponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and the APEC Study Center.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
18. The Aquino Legacy: Implications for 2022 Elections
- Author:
- Mely Caballero-Anthony and Julius Caesar Trajano
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The visible outpouring of public grief and support across the country’s political spectrum shows that the Aquino legacy endures despite the popularity of the firebrand President Duterte. This could have significant impact on the much-awaited campaign season for the 2022 national elections.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Leadership, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Philippines
19. Myanmar’s Generals Recoup: The recurrence of military-defined “disciplined democracy”
- Author:
- Bart Gaens
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Myanmar’s generals cited election fraud as the motive behind their coup. However, as the country’s transition during the past decade has been rooted in military-orchestrated “disciplined democracy”, the real drivers behind the coup are likely different.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, Coup, and Military Government
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Burma, and Myanmar
20. Kishida’s Onerous Task After the General Election: The Promotion of Democracy in Domestic and World Politics
- Author:
- Jaeun Yun
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- On October 31, the general election was held in Japan. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a comfortable majority in the lower house, winning 261 seats. Professor Jaeun Yun states this election shows that the majority of Japanese people tend to approve of the Kishida administration. He also points out that the Kishida administration, albeit securing a comfortable majority, needs to address two issues: to recover democracy in domestic politics and to carry out realistic foreign policy for the promotion of democracy in world politics. In order to promote and contribute to democracy domestically and internationally, he suggests that “reluctant realism” could turn out to be “realistic proactive pacifism.”
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
21. The Role of Korea’s Election Commission and the Quality of Elections
- Author:
- Woo Chang Kang
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- According to the Varieties of Democracy Institute, the freedom and fairness of South Korea’s elections have improved dramatically since the country first democratized. Figure 1 below shows how the quality of South Korea’s elections has changed between 1948 and 2020 (“election was free and fair” is indicated in blue) and the country’s rating on the Electoral Democracy Index (indicated in red). There was little change in election quality and the democracy index in the 40 years that followed the constitutional election of 1948. With the change to a direct election system implemented in 1987, the freedom and fairness of South Korea’s elections shot up, and the country’s rating on the democracy index increased greatly as well.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
22. Iran’s foreign policy: Buying time until the US presidential elections
- Author:
- Mariette Hagglund
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- A key issue dominating Iran’s foreign policy agenda is the future of the Iran nuclear deal with regard to the next US president. Non-state armed groups mark the core of Iran’s leverage in the region, but Iran is currently looking into diversifying its means of influence. Although Iran considers its non-aligned position a strength, it is also a weakness. In an otherwise interconnected world, where other regional powers enjoy partnerships with other states and can rely on external security guarantors, Iran remains alone. By being more integrated into regional cooperation and acknowledged as a regional player, Iran could better pursue its interests, but US attempts to isolate the country complicate any such efforts. In the greater superpower competition between the US and China, Iran is unlikely to choose a side despite its current “look East” policy, but may take opportunistic decisions.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and North America
23. Is China preparing to invade Taiwan? The time may be opportune, but the overall situation is not
- Author:
- Jyrki Kallio
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Speculation is rife that China could take advantage of the potential confusion during the US presidential election and invade Taiwan. Although China has never relinquished the military option for resolving the Taiwan issue, there are sound reasons to downplay the risk of a military confrontation at the present time.
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, Elections, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, and North America
24. Key Issues in the Myanmar November 2020 Elections
- Author:
- Erik Martinez Kuhonta, Franque Grimard, and Kai Scott
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
- Abstract:
- On 8 November 2020, Myanmar will hold its second election since the country’s gradual liberalization began. Despite presenting itself as a force for liberal democracy five years ago, the National League for Democracy (NLD) has demonstrated its unwillingness to commit itself to the protection of civil freedoms and the expansion of federal governance. It has fallen short of campaign promises by failing to enact meaningful constitutional change, improve economic performance, and address the protracted peace process. Notably, the government has created a climate that represses dissidents and undermines ethnic pluralism. Yet, the NLD’s support base remains strong, in part as a result of Aung San Suu Kyi’s continued ability to appeal to a Bamar-majority voter base by opposing the military cronyism of past and rooting herself in ethno-nationalist values, as witnessed in her decision to respond to charges of genocide at the International Court of Justice at the Hague. As a result, the NLD’s continued dominance over the Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP) is expected to continue. In the ethnic states, the situation is different—here, the ethnic political parties are expected to make gains on the NLD, as their recent merging place them well to take advantage of anti-NLD sentiment that has grown within ethnic minorities over the years because of the NLD’s perceived Bamar-centric governance. In addition, a lack of trust in the Union Elections Commission and complications due to covid-19 are significant sources of risk in the running of the 2020 election.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Human Rights, Elections, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar
25. Taiwan's 2020 Elections
- Author:
- Natasha Kassam and Richard McGregor
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- China has lost the battle for public opinion in Taiwan. Saturday’s elections are likely to reflect strong anti-Beijing sentiment China is already looking past the elections to weaken the island’s democracy through overt and covert means Whatever the result, Beijing will increase pressure on Taipei to open talks on unification
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
26. The Pushback Against Populism: Running on “Radical Love” in Turkey
- Author:
- F. Michael Wuthrich and David Ingleby
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Democracy
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- Drawing from the 2019 mayoral elections in Turkey, this paper highlights a path that opposition parties might take to defuse polarized environments and avoid playing into the political traps set by populists in power. The particular type of moral and amplified polarization that accompanies populism’s essential “thin” ideology builds a barrier between a populist’s supporters and the opposition. Yet the CHP opposition in Turkey has recently won notable victories with its new campaign approach of “radical love,” which counteracts populism’s polarizing logic and has exposed Erdoğan’s weakness.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, Populism, and Authority
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
27. Democracy under siege: Advancing cooperation and common values in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Kharis Templeman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Over the past three decades, democracy has put down roots in many seemingly unlikely places across Asia, from Mongolia to Indonesia. At a time when democracy is in global retreat, the majority of these Asian regimes have demonstrated surprising resiliency, though many continue to suffer from glaring flaws: weak state capacity and accountability institutions, the absence of impartial rule of law, and uneven protection of political rights and civil liberties. This issue brief, “Democracy under Siege: Advancing Cooperation and Common Values in the Indo-Pacific,” by Dr. Kharis Templeman, examines challenges and opportunities for advancing cooperation and common values in the Indo-Pacific as the region faces an increasing challenge from China.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Corruption, Diplomacy, International Organization, Politics, Reform, Elections, Democracy, Rule of Law, Norms, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Taiwan, East Asia, Asia, Australia, Korea, and Indo-Pacific
28. Taiwanese Attitudes toward the Political Newcomers in 2016
- Author:
- Anna Rudakowska
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan (LY) is commonly seen as an institution comprised of career politicians. In fact, candidates without prior experience in elected seats of the island’s political structures are no strangers to the LY. Moreover, in the 2016 parliamentary elections, the political novices enjoyed unprecedented support and achieved relative success. The New Power Party (NPP), which only formed in early 2015 and popular mainly due to the several debutants it fielded, including Freddy Lim, Hung Tzu-yung and Huang Kuo-chang, emerged as the LY’s third-largest party. Although it garnered only five of the 113 seats (4.4%), it was a great win for the fledgling party, ranking it third behind the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which have reigned over the island’s political scene for the past several decades. This article examines the phenomenon of Taiwanese novices. It looks at them from the voters’ perspective. It surveys the demographic profiles and political preferences of Taiwanese who support the newcomers’ engagement in the political process, and compares them with citizens who express negative attitudes toward the newcomers.
- Topic:
- Politics, Communications, Elections, and Narrative
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan and Asia
29. Moon Jae-in: Putting North Korea at the Center
- Author:
- Kathryn Botto
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- While President Moon Jae-in has a calmer demeanor than his mentor and friend, former President Roh Moo-hyun, there can be no doubt that his vision for transforming Northeast Asia is as far-reaching. While Moon has been more careful to assuage the U.S. president, less abrasive in his language toward Japan, and more strategic in reaching out to leaders in China and Russia, his strategy of putting North Korea at the forefront of regional realignment has similar geopolitical ambition. The objective is the rejuvenation of a reintegrated peninsula with the capacity to steer actions by all of the great powers rather than falling prey again to their machinations that are not in Korea’s interest.
- Topic:
- Politics, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
30. Taiwan's 2020 Election and Its Implications for the New Southbound Policy
- Author:
- H. H. Michael Hsiao and Alan H. Yang
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The elections in January 2020 marked a new era for Taiwan, clearly demonstrating citizens’ resistance to China. The results showed that incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was re-elected with a landslide victory of 8.17 million votes (57.1%) which is higher than the previous record high of 7.65 million votes obtained by the Kuomintang (KMT) President Ma Ying Jeou in 2008. Michael Hsiao and Alan Yang, Chairman and Executive Director, respectively, of the Taiwan‐Asia Exchange Foundation in Taiwan, explain that “The Taiwanese people firmly defended Taiwan’s sovereignty and cherished democracy through free and open elections.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Sovereignty, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
31. Parliamentary Oversight of Constitutional Bodies in the Maldives
- Author:
- Alexandra Brown, Erica Shein, and Katherine Ellena
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems
- Abstract:
- After decades of power centralized in the executive, the Maldives’ 2008 Constitution introduced separation of powers and created “independent institutions to monitor the three branches of power and safeguard human rights.” The Election Commission, Anti-Corruption Commission and other independent institutions must have sufficient autonomy to operate effectively and carry out their mandates without susceptibility to undue influence. However, they are not immune from corruption, poor leadership or partisan behavior, and still require oversight to ensure accountability. Finding the correct balance between accountability and autonomy can be challenging, but it is essential to ensure that the institutions appropriately fulfill their mandates. In response to a request from Parliament, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) conducted an extensive literature review, analyzed comparative practices and consulted stakeholders to develop a set of recommendations for effective parliamentary oversight of independent institutions. The resulting paper, Parliamentary Oversight of Constitutional Bodies in the Maldives, explores how parliamentary tools and mechanisms can be effectively tailored to provide the appropriate level of oversight. The paper has recommendations and lessons that are broadly applicable outside the Maldivian context, and helped inspire the development of IFES’ Autonomy and Accountability Framework. Because constitutional bodies have a unique role to play in bolstering good governance, any improvement to their performance will improve the quality of democracy as a whole and help prevent corruption, improve service delivery and increase transparency and rule of law. IFES’ Autonomy and Accountability Framework helps countries achieve this in practice.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, Constitution, Transparency, Autonomy, and Parliamentarism
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Asia, and Maldives
32. Exposure to Violence and Voting in Karachi, Pakistan
- Author:
- Mashail Malik and Niloufer Siddiqui
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Pakistan’s 2018 elections marked just the second time in history that power transferred peacefully from one civilian government to another after a full term in office. Although the initial months of campaigning were relatively free of violence, the two weeks before polling were dangerous for campaigners and voters alike, and the elections provided a platform for some parties to incite violence, particularly against Pakistan’s minority sects. This report provides a deep examination of how exposure to political violence in Pakistan’s largest city affects political behavior, including willingness to vote and faith in the democratic process.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Minorities, Elections, Violence, Peace, and Voting
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, Asia, and Karachi
33. Capturing Anti-Jokowi Sentiment and Islamic Conservative Masses: PKS 2019 Strategy
- Author:
- Adhi Priamarizki and Dedi Dinarto
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the Prosperous and Justice Party (PKS)’s strategy in the 2019 Indonesian general elections. Among the Islamic-based political parties, PKS gained the most significant increase in votes. We aspire to understand the breakthrough by looking at the party’s strategy. On the one hand, our findings confirm the existing studies that correctly noted the moving of Indonesian political parties towards a “catch-all” direction by which they aim to garner wider support beyond a specific type of voter base. On the other hand, our research notes that PKS has started to exploit the phenomenon of rising Islamic conservatism in Indonesia. Despite solely maintaining an inclusive electoral strategy, this research asserts that the party has adjusted its campaign strategy to fit in with the trend of rising Islamic conservatism while concurrently exploiting the anti-incumbent president (Joko Widodo) sentiment. This paper aims to enhance discussion on Indonesian politics as well as Indonesia’s political parties, particularly the PKS.
- Topic:
- Islam, Religion, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Conservatism
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
34. Reforming Indian Agriculture
- Author:
- Ashok Gulati, Devesh Kapur, and Marshall M. Bouton
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for the Advanced Study of India
- Abstract:
- Following an overwhelming election victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new government has a golden opportunity to bring about historic reforms in the agricultural sector to improve farmer livelihoods and national food security. The sector affects the economic well-being of half the Indian population and the access to affordable and nutritious food for all Indians. Fundamental reforms can achieve sustainable and broadly distributed agricultural growth that will add to India’s GDP, increase export earnings, help conserve increasingly scarce resources of land and water, and enable the more orderly movement out of agriculture and into other productive sectors. Reforms in four areas should be the priority if Prime Minister Modi’s bold goal of doubling farmer incomes is to be accomplished in the coming years. First, the focus of agricultural policies must shift from production per se to farmers’ livelihoods. Second, policies to improve the allocation and efficiency of land and water are essential if the critical resources of water and land are to be conserved. Third, reforms are needed to help farmers cope with the growing risks of weather and price volatility. Fourth, agricultural markets must be opened to greater competition and provided with better infrastructure if farmers are to realize better returns for produce while ensuring nutritional security for low-income consumers. Agriculture is a state subject but where the Central government has had—and will continue to have—a large role. Reforms can only succeed if the Central and state governments work closely together in a spirit of “cooperative federalism.” Many of the important levers of change—water, power, irrigation, extension, agri-markets, etc.—are controlled by the states. Going forward, it would be helpful if the government created an Agri-Reforms Council on the lines of GST Council for a somewhat longer term than is currently done (for two months). The focus for the Government of India will need to be twofold: actions that it can unilaterally take to raise agricultural incomes; and second, actions to influence state government efforts to improve agriculture with its sustainability at the core. The steps listed should be thought of as a package, which will have an impact if most are implemented and not one or two in isolation. Reduce cereal procurement and keep MSP price increases for rice and wheat below inflation, and not exceeding border prices, while encouraging the private sector to develop robust markets in less water intensive crops like pulses and oilseeds by removing controls on stocking, trading, exports, etc. This will also have a beneficial impact on depleting water tables in certain regions, notably in north-west and southern India. Implement income transfers scheme for farmers in tandem with reductions in the subsidies for power, water, and fertilizer that distort incentives and hinder change. This will have large positive environmental effects and help toward better natural resource management. Keep the real prices of subsidized grains under the National Food Security Act, 2013 and link them to the MSP to incentivize the production and consumption of non-cereals. Scrap the Essential Commodities Act and other laws designed fifty years ago for conditions of scarcity. Those conditions of scarcity have long since disappeared. India is trying to cope more with the problems of surfeit than scarcity. Focus on income from livestock to help marginal farmers (<1 ha). Change laws and more importantly the political and social climate that have been so detrimental to the livestock sector lately. Eliminate or reduce dramatically export restrictions and export taxes on agricultural products. Trade policies that have been arbitrarily and pro-cyclically imposed (increasing tariffs and import restrictions when world prices come down, and imposing export bans and taxes when domestic prices rise)—must become stable and predictable by setting “trigger levels” well in advance. Accelerate the effort to create a single agricultural market by introducing assaying, grading, setting standards, bringing “Uber-type” logistical players on e-platforms to move goods from one region to another, and setting dispute settlement mechanisms so that farmers and farm organizations can transact with any buyer, anywhere in India, and at any time of their choosing. Support the creation of public mandis as a viable alternative to private trade. Most importantly, across the board, increase marketing options available to farmers while subsidizing market infrastructure improvements. End support for the rehabilitation of inefficient urea plants and create a plan for closing the most inefficient plants. Incentivize the passing of state laws to allow easy leasing/renting of agricultural land and relax restrictions on conversion of agricultural land for other purposes. At present, these restrictions keep the value of agricultural land low and raise the barriers to exit from agriculture. Finally, even as these reforms are undertaken, it needs to be recognized that growth and employment opportunities outside agriculture are critical for long-term improvements in farmers’ incomes. Relentless population pressures have meant that most Indian farms are too small to provide viable incomes. The long-term future of Indian farmers fundamentally depends on getting many people out of farming. Ironically, that future will come about more reliably if policies to improve agricultural production and incomes are pursued today.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Reform, Elections, and GDP
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Asia
35. Beijing’s Reactions to November Developments Surrounding the Crisis in Hong Kong
- Author:
- Elizabeth Chen and John Dotson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The year 2019 has seen a gradually escalating crisis in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The territory has seen continuing unrest since mass protests first broke out in June, in response to a draft extradition law that would have allowed Hong Kong residents to be arrested and sent to mainland China for prosecution.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Elections, Democracy, State Violence, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Hong Kong, and United States of America
36. How Beijing is Shaping Politics in Western Australia
- Author:
- Wai Ling Yeung and Clive Hamilton
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Political organizations with links to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are active inside Australia’s two main political parties and using their growing influence to promote Beijing’s interests.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Multiculturalism, Elections, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific
37. The EU in Search of Itself
- Author:
- V. Chernega
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- ELECTIONS to the European Parliament that took place on May 23-26, 2019 reflected the far from simple processes that have been unfolding in the European Union for several years now. They confirmed the desire of a fairly big number of voters to see new people among the political elites. The Right and Left centrists that had dominated the parliament for many years lost their traditional majority and, therefore, the chance to elect the chairman among themselves. This was not the only surprise. First, in their zeal the mainstream media controlled by the liberal elites devoted to the ideas of European integration that demonized the Eurosceptics as dangerous populists forced the voters to mobilize and close ranks to a much greater extent than before (51.2% against 42% in 2014). Second, unexpectedly, the Greens, the majority of which belonged to the Left camp, demonstrated good results: they came second with 20.5% of votes in Germany and third in France with 13.5%. It should be said that they partly owed their success to the United States that had left the 2016 Paris Agreement. Contrary to expectations, however, it was not a breakthrough even if Eurosceptics gained more seats than in 2014: 173 against 140 (24% of the total number of 751 seats). This means that even if they manage to form a faction, the decisive impact on the political course of the European Parliament will remain outside their reach. In an absence of a clear major- ity, however, they got a chance to influence new laws and decisions. Theoretically, they might form temporal alliances with other forces. So far, deputies of other parties who look at them as a threat to unfolding integration reject the very idea of such alliances. It seems that they are determined to close ranks to prevent Eurosceptics from filling the impor- tant posts of deputy chairman and chairs of the main commissions. They became even more determined in demonizing the movement.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Elections, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
38. Turkey’s Republican People’s Party and the EU: Preconditions for EU-Turkey relations in the secular-nationalist vision
- Author:
- Toni Alaranta
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- After 17 years of the Islamic-conservative AKP’s electoral hegemony, the secular-nationalist Republican People’s Party (CHP) achieved significant success in the recent municipal elections on March 2019, and is now increasingly challenging President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The secular-nationalist political discourse has traditionally advanced the idea of making Turkey a modern nation-state closely attached to the West, yet the West is also seen as a potential threat. The CHP identifies itself as a social-democratic party, and is now trying to build a wide pro-democratic platform based on a social market economy and fundamental rights. The party’s strong secularist and Turkish nationalist core has made it difficult for the CHP to gain support among the Kurds and religious conservatives, and this remains challenging. Strong nationalism and suspicion about the West are deeply ingrained in Turkey’s political culture. On the other hand, in order to be inherently coherent, the secular-nationalist vision requires an ideological attachment to the Western world. Stemming from these premises, under the CHP’s government, Turkey’s foreign policy would likely prioritize good relations with the West, and re-invigorate the country’s EU prospect.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Hegemony, Elections, and Local
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
39. India’s Communists and the Elections of 2019. Only an Alternative Agenda Can Defeat the Right-Wing.
- Author:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Abstract:
- Ahead of the 2019 elections in India — the largest exercise of electoral democracy in the world– Brinda Karat of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) discusses the current political context in the country and the left-led resistance to the deepening assault on basic human rights led by India’s right-wing.
- Topic:
- Communism, Elections, Political Parties, and Leftist Politics
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
40. The Election in Karnataka: Caste, Class, and Regional Complexity
- Author:
- Pranav Kuttaiah and Neelanjan Sircar
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Policy Research, India
- Abstract:
- Pranav Kuttaiah and Neelanjan Sircar discuss the complexities of the Karnataka election before vote counting the following day.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Ethnicity, Class, and Caste
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, Asia, and Karnataka
41. Doubling Down on the U.S.-South Korea Alliance: Olympics Diplomacy Did Not Breach Trust, but TrumpMoon Confidence Is in Jeopardy
- Author:
- Leif-Eric Easley
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The U.S.-ROK alliance faced a quickening pace of North Korean provocations in 2016-17, with Pyongyang violating UN Security Council resolutions dozens of times. Those violations included a fourth nuclear test in January 2016, fifth in September 2016, and sixth in September 2017, as well as numerous missile tests of various trajectories from different platforms. North Korea tested intermediate-range missiles overflying Japan and missiles of intercontinental range on lofted trajectories, while developing road-mobile and submarinelaunched ballistic missiles. As policymakers in Seoul and Washington coordinated responses to those provocations, changes in national leadership and domestic political preferences brought into question the bilateral trust the alliance needs to deter conflict, reassure publics, and promote regional cooperation. Elections have consequences, even before votes are cast. Enduring international security alliances are based on shared national interests and a track record of diplomatic commitments and military cooperation. For allies with highly integrated defense policies, such as the United States and South Korea, it is natural for policymakers and citizens to keenly observe the national elections of the other country. Will the next government be a reliable partner, or will it fail to honor existing agreements? Will the incoming leadership improve relations, or will it downgrade cooperation? These questions were being asked before Donald Trump and Moon Jae-in were elected. The search for answers inevitably involves speculation, feeding expectations that are often overly optimistic or pessimistic. Ahead of Trump’s election, his campaign rhetoric questioned the terms and intrinsic value of the alliance to an extent not seen since Jimmy Carter’s 1976 campaign promise to withdraw U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula. President Moon came to power on the heels of conservative president Park Geun-hye’s impeachment and removal for corruption. Moon’s politics are notably more progressive than Park’s or Trump’s, including a record of pro-engagement policies toward North Korea. Against this backdrop, Kim Jong-un delivered his 2018 New Year’s Day address claiming that North Korea has the ability to hit any U.S. city with a nuclear-armed missile, but that Pyongyang is ready to re-engage Seoul via participation in the Winter Olympics.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, Alliance, Olympics, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, Korea, and United States of America
42. Burma: Suu Kyi’s Missteps
- Author:
- Zoltan Barany
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Democracy
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- Following the victory of the National League for Democracy (NLD) in November 2015 elections, many vested their hopes in the NLD’s leader, Nobel Peace Prize–laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, whom they saw as a force that would propel Burma toward democratic transition. Constitutional constraints have severely limited Suu Kyi’s power to transform Burma’s political life, with the military continuing to be the most politically influential institution. Even given these limitations, however, Suu Kyi has thus far disappointed her supporters at home and especially abroad. Economic reforms have come slowly, democratic standards have slipped, and Suu Kyi and her government have faced international condemnation for their treatment of the Rohingya Muslim minority.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Burma, and Myanmar
43. The Integrity of Elections in Asia: Policy Lessons Applied
- Author:
- Kyle Lemargie and Silja Paasilinna
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems
- Abstract:
- In response to a recent study by Max Grömping entitled The Integrity of Elections in Asia: Policy Lessons from Expert Evaluations, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) produced a briefing paper with some examples of policy lessons applied in practice across Asia. IFES has worked in Asia for the past three decades supporting election management bodies, civil society and other electoral stakeholders in their efforts to promote electoral integrity.
- Topic:
- Law, Elections, Transparency, and Campaign Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia
44. Cambodia and the Asian Values Debate
- Author:
- Alvin Cheng-Hin Lim
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Review of Human Rights
- Institution:
- Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
- Abstract:
- In the run-up to the 2018 general elections, the Cambodian government severely restricted political and human rights, including dissolving the primary opposition party—the Cambodia National Rescue Party. Supporters of the government have articulated defenses of these restrictions, including a line of argument, which echoes the long-standing Asian values debate. This article will examine the purge of political and human rights in Cambodia in 2016-17, and will also assess the justifications for these restrictions.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia
45. Doubling Down on the U.S.-South Korea Alliance: Olympics Diplomacy Did Not Breach Trust, but Trump- Moon Confidence Is in Jeopardy
- Author:
- Leif-Eric Easley
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The U.S.-ROK alliance faced a quickening pace of North Korean provocations in 2016-17, with Pyongyang violating UN Security Council resolutions dozens of times. Those violations included a fourth nuclear test in January 2016, fifth in September 2016, and sixth in September 2017, as well as numerous missile tests of various trajectories from different platforms. North Korea tested intermediate-range missiles overflying Japan and missiles of intercontinental range on lofted trajectories, while developing road-mobile and submarinelaunched ballistic missiles. As policymakers in Seoul and Washington coordinated responses to those provocations, changes in national leadership and domestic political preferences brought into question the bilateral trust the alliance needs to deter conflict, reassure publics, and promote regional cooperation. Elections have consequences, even before votes are cast. Enduring international security alliances are based on shared national interests and a track record of diplomatic commitments and military cooperation. For allies with highly integrated defense policies, such as the United States and South Korea, it is natural for policymakers and citizens to keenly observe the national elections of the other country. Will the next government be a reliable partner, or will it fail to honor existing agreements? Will the incoming leadership improve relations, or will it downgrade cooperation? These questions were being asked before Donald Trump and Moon Jae-in were elected. The search for answers inevitably involves speculation, feeding expectations that are often overly optimistic or pessimistic. Ahead of Trump’s election, his campaign rhetoric questioned the terms and intrinsic value of the alliance to an extent not seen since Jimmy Carter’s 1976 campaign promise to withdraw U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula. President Moon came to power on the heels of conservative president Park Geun-hye’s impeachment and removal for corruption. Moon’s politics are notably more progressive than Park’s or Trump’s, including a record of pro-engagement policies toward North Korea. Against this backdrop, Kim Jong-un delivered his 2018 New Year’s Day address claiming that North Korea has the ability to hit any U.S. city with a nuclear-armed missile, but that Pyongyang is ready to re-engage Seoul via participation in the Winter Olympics.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Elections, Alliance, and Olympics
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
46. Salvaging the Sunshine Policy
- Author:
- David Straub
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- Shortly before his election as South Korea’s president in May 2017, candidate Moon Jaein issued his most detailed North Korea policy statement. As president, he declared, he would “inherit” the engagement-based, inducements-oriented Sunshine Policy approach of Korea’s only other progressive presidents, Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003) and Roh Moohyun (2003-2008)1. Moon judged the North Korea policies of his immediate predecessors a failure; Presidents Lee Myung-bak (2008-2013) and Park Geun-hye (2013-2017), both conservatives, had disagreed with key aspects of the Sunshine Policy and suspended the major inter-Korean projects undertaken by Kim and Roh. Moon’s emphasis on incentives to Pyongyang contrasted with United Nations Security Council resolutions adopted during the preceding decade; far from offering inducements, the UNSC had imposed increasingly stringent sanctions on the regime in response to its accelerating pursuit of a full-fledged nuclear weapons capability. Moon also struck quite a different tone than the new Trump administration in Washington, which had only recently concluded a North Korea policy review and characterized its approach as one of “maximum pressure and engagement. This chapter assesses Moon’s North Korea policy, its implementation during his initial year in office, and its prospects under difficult circumstances. It begins by reviewing the Sunshine Policy concept, its practice by previous progressive governments, and the significantly different approach of South Korea’s succeeding conservative administrations. It then argues that Moon and many progressives continue to believe in the basic Sunshine Policy approach, even though, unlike when the policy was first formulated, North Korea now already has a limited nuclear weapons capability and may soon be able to credibly threaten the United States homeland with nuclear attack. It reviews how Moon, as president, has attempted to salvage the policy and how North Korea and other concerned countries have responded. The chapter concludes by considering the prospects for Moon’s North Korea policy and offering recommendations to modify it to maximize the interests of both the ROK and the international community as a whole.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
47. Journal of Public and International Affairs 2017
- Author:
- Bethany Atkins, Trevor Pierce, Valentina Baiamonte, Chiara Redaelli, Hal Brewster, Vivian Chang, Lindsay Holcomb, Sarah Lohschelder, Nicolas Pose, Stephen Reimer, Namitha Sadanand, and Eustace Uzor
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- From the United States to the Switzerland, this year’s Journal draws on a diverse range of authors’ experiences and studies to analyze a varied—yet timely—set of current issues. By spotlighting topics such as climate change, voting rights, and gender issues, JPIA contributes to the debates that are occurring today. The strong use of quantitative analysis and in-depth study of resources ensures that this year’s Journal adds a select perspective to the debate that hopefully policymakers will find useful and actionable.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Development, Narcotics Trafficking, Law, Prisons/Penal Systems, Elections, Women, Brexit, Multilateralism, Private Sector, Carbon Tax, Carbon Emissions, and Gerrymandering
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Afghanistan, Africa, China, South Asia, Central Asia, Asia, and Nigeria
48. Is the BJP in Trouble? Caste, Class, and the Urban-Rural Divide in Gujarat
- Author:
- Ashish Ranjan and Neelanjan Sircar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Policy Research, India
- Abstract:
- After 22 years in power, the BJP is feeling the heat this year in Gujarat's election campaign. This paper analyses the reasons for this sudden frustration with the BJP – with a particular focus on caste mobilisation, urban-rural division, and emerging class politics in Gujarat.
- Topic:
- Politics, Urbanization, Elections, Class, Rural, and Caste
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Asia
49. CANDIDATE SELECTION PROCESS AS A TOOL TO SHAPE A PARTY'S DOMINANT COALITION: THE CASE OF THE AKP IN TURKEY
- Author:
- Gül ARIKAN AKDAĞ
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Alternative Politics
- Institution:
- Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
- Abstract:
- Since its first incumbency after the 2002 general elections Turkish politics has witnessed considerable changes in the policies of the AKP in economic and political realms. Academics have tried to understand the nature and possible causes of these policy changes mostly focusing on the electoral concerns. This study provides a different dimension to the debate by focusing on the party organization as a possible dynamic preventing / enabling this kind of a policy change. As such, it relates the policy changes of the AKP to the changes in the inner structure of the party organization. This kind of change is tracked through the analysis of the social and political backgrounds of the members of the party's main decision organ-the Central Decision and Administrative Committee.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, Political structure, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Asia, and Ankara
50. The Referendum in Turkey: A Pyrrhic Victory and Continuous Crisis
- Author:
- Athanasios Manis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- There is no doubt that the Turkish referendum of 16 April 2017 marks a sea change for Turkey’s political system. Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) have narrowly won the referendum that turns his de facto hegemonic presidency into de jure. 51.28% of Turkish citizens approved the 18 proposed constitutional amendments, while 48.72% opposed them. However, the provisions of the constitutional amendments and the statements made by the main political protagonists and antagonists give little hope that the referendum result will bring political stability or economic prosperity; or allow Turkey’s leadership to play a constructive role in Syria and Iraq - at least in the short-term. Furthermore, it is unlikely to enhance the level of cooperation with the EU and the US over the war against the Islamic State (IS) and the refugee crisis.
- Topic:
- Elections, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Turkey, and Asia