Political Geography: Asia / Topic: Climate Change

1. India's G20 Presidency: Opportunity to Resume Engagement in the Arctic

Author:: Anurag Bisen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The Arctic lies at the intersection of several issues with global consequences such as climate change, increased accessibility to and availability of resources, and global strategic contestation that have made the region increasingly relevant to the world. Temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at four times the global annual average, driving many of the changes under way there, most prominently sea-level rise and the thawing of permafrost, which impact both local ecosystems and the global climate system. International scientific cooperation and data monitoring and sharing are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change, counteracting its negative effects, and enhancing living conditions and economic activity. Apart from a few limited pockets of cooperation that still exist, cooperation between Russia and the West with regard to the Arctic has largely been put on hold since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. The current absence of research and data sharing among scientists is threatening to jeopardise scientists’ understanding of the warming trends in the Arctic, exacerbating the environmental emergency the region in particular is facing. One of the few channels that still exists for constructive dialogue on a range of Arctic-related issues is the GCSP’s “‘High North Talks”’, through which discreet exchanges on various important issues continue. Among other things, the G20 agenda includes climate change, sustainable development and the environment, all of which are under threat due to the cessation of Artic-related scientific engagement. The G20 also represents a rare platform where engagement between Russia and the West has not yet ceased. The suspension of dialogue and scientific exchange vis-à-vis the Arctic is driven by a deep distrust that needs to be overcome by an interlocutor that is acceptable to all stakeholders. India's theme for its G20 presidency resonates strongly with the Arctic and its impact on the world. The resumption of Arctic-related scientific exchange is an easy deliverable with global benefits that India, which has the necessary legitimacy, credibility and relevance, should use its G20 presidency to strive for.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, G20, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: India, Asia, and Arctic

2. Climate Change in Japan’s New Defence and Security Strategies

Author:: Alistair D B Cook
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Japan has taken concrete steps to integrate climate change into its defence and security strategy going forward, and to provide the necessary budget for implementing the relevant measures needed in mitigating the impacts of this threat. This may signal a more prominent leadership role for Japan on climate security in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, and Environment
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

3. Japan’s Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth Strategy

Author:: Gyu-Pan Kim
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Japan is mobilizing all its policy capabilities for energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy and hydrogen energy from the perspective of realizing carbon neutrality by 2050. Among them, the overseas development and return of hydrogen energy to Japan and the domestic green hydrogen development are making great progress since the announcement of the basic hydrogen strategy in December 2017. Japan promotes the green growth strategy (December 2020) as a national strategy to achieve the 2030 GHG reduction target of 46% (compared to 2013) (NDC) and to realize ‘carbon neutrality by 2050’. Japan's green growth strategy sets 14 areas as key development industries, including offshore wind power, hydrogen, nuclear power, automobiles and batteries, semiconductors, and information & technology. It also presents action plans in the key 14 areas such as R&D, demonstration projects, introduction expansion, and self-reliance/commercialization according to the growth stage of each area. In this WEB, we would like to explore which part of Japan's energy transition policy and green growth strategy the Korean government will refer to in order to achieve the task of realizing carbon neutrality by 2050, and cooperate with Japanese government.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economic Growth, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, Hydrogen, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

4. ASEAN's medium- to long-term trade strategies and the direction of RoK-ASEAN cooperation

Author:: Sungil Kwak, Seungjin Cho, Jaewan Cheong, Jaeho Lee, Mingeum Shin, Nayoun Park, and So Eun Kim
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In recent years, the U.S.-China hegemony competition has intensified, dividing the world into two blocs. ASEAN has long culti-vated its position on the international stage by maintaining a certain distance between the United States and China. In that sense, ASEAN is the best partner for Korea to ef-fectively respond to the divided world. Therefore, this study seeks the directions of cooperation with ASEAN in supply chain, digital trade, climate change response, and health and development cooperation in line with changes in the international order.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, Trade, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5. Analysis of India's New and Renewable Energy Market and Policies and Implications for Korea-India Cooperation

Author:: Hyoungmin Han
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The importance of new and renewable en-ergy has been drawing attention since the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted in 2015. In response to the Paris Climate Agreement, the Korean government declared carbon neutrality by 2050 and announced policy plans to create a low-carbon ecosystem in 2020. However, the domestic new and re-newable energy market is limited, making it difficult to mass-produce power generation devices. In addition, the international community's transition to a low-carbon ecosys-tem is rapidly taking place. To achieve 2050 carbon neutrality, it is necessary to secure Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) through various overseas cooperation pro-jects. Thus, it is believed that energy cooperation with developing countries is needed to expand domestic markets and to achieve overseas NDC reduction targets. Considering India's recent market expansion and active policy in the area of renewable energy, India can be a good partner for Korea in the renewable sector. To have a clear understanding of India’s renewable energy market, we conduct the analysis on India’s renewable energy market and policy, which we will explore in this article.
Topic:: Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Renewable Energy, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

6. Southeast Asia Aid Map - Key Findings Report

Author:: Alexandre Dayant, Grace Stanhope, and Roland Rajah
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Official development finance plays an important role in financing Southeast Asia’s development, equivalent to around 10% of total government development spending in the region. China is Southeast Asia’s single largest development partner and leads infrastructure financing. Yet, implementation problems have seen the scale of China’s financing decline in recent years. Traditional development partners collectively still dominate development financing in Southeast Asia at 80% of the total. The multilateral development banks lead the way, followed by Japan, Europe, and South Korea. The United States and Australia are mid-sized players. India and the Middle East have become notable sources of non-traditional development finance, with the Islamic Development Bank playing an important role. Climate development finance is increasing, but Southeast Asia will need more support if it is to transition towards resilient, low-carbon development. Intraregional development cooperation is growing, but only makes up a small part of development finance in Southeast Asia.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

7. Why Democracies Implement Better Climate Actions: Case Study of India, the Philippines, and Japan

Author:: Niranjan Sahoo and Jisoo Park
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Asia is the most populous and one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world. Long coastline, vast low lying areas comprising many small island nations make it highly susceptible to climate change such as rising sea level and extreme weather events like floods, landslides. For many critics, democracies' response to climate change is much impeded due to their slow decision-making process and short-termism governed by electoral compulsions. Some analysts go as far as to claim that authoritarianism is needed to tackle the crisis more effectively. However, close examination of different governance structure's climate actions strongly supports that democracies are inherently better at handling climate crisis compared to authoritarian regimes. This article explores the multifaceted impact of climate change to democracy and delves into the case studies of India, the Philippines, and Japan to identify strengths as well as areas of improvement that democracies should consider to establish meaningful climate actions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Japan, India, Asia, and Philippines

8. General Equilibrium Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness and Distributional Impacts of China’s Nationwide CO2 Emissions Trading System

Author:: Xianling Long, Da Zhang, Lawrence Goulder, and Chenfei Qu
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: China introduced the world's largest emissions trading system in 2021 which is intended to help cost-effectively achieve its pledges of reaching a peak in CO2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. The system is a tradable performance standard (TPS) with a bottom-up intensity-based emissions cap, unlike a top-down absolute cap approach commonly used globally. General Equilibrium Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness and Distributional Impacts of China’s Nationwide CO2 Emissions Trading System developed and applied a multi-sector, multi-period general equilibrium model to assess the emissions, energy mix, and economic impacts of a series of options for the future development of this policy. These included cap-setting, benchmark design, auction design, and sectoral expansion, with valuable insights provided on the potential future evolution of this policy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

9. The Transition From an Intensity to an Absolute Emissions Cap in China’s National Emissions Trading System

Author:: Duan Maosheng
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: The unique characteristics of China's economic development and electricity marketization have resulted in the implementation of a bottom-up intensity-based emissions cap in China’s national emissions trading system (ETS) in its early stages. However, the efficacy of the bottom-up cap-setting approach remains controversial, particularly with regard to achieving emission reduction goals and cost-effectiveness. In response to China's "dual carbon" targets and updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), China’s national ETS shall gradually shift towards a real cap-and-trade system, with a transition period when a hybrid system, which has an absolute control cap beside the intensity cap, is implemented. The Transition from an Intensity to an Absolute Emissions Cap in China’s National Emissions Trading System examines the cap-setting approaches used in ETSs in China, the underlying reasons for choosing intensity caps in China, and major issues related to the transition from an intensity cap to an absolute cap in China’s national ETS.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

10. Getting Asia to Net Zero

Author:: Asia Society Policy Institute
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: In March 2023, the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a key report stating that the Earth has already warmed by 1.1°C and that no additional fossil fuel infrastructure can be built and used while still holding warming to under 1.5°C. In response, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for countries to hit “fast-forward” on their net zero commitments, with developed economies to aim for net zero by 2040, and emerging economies to target 2050. The Getting Asia to Net Zero report from the High-level Policy Commission on Getting Asia to Net Zero presents another compelling reason for the Asia-Pacific region to align behind achieving net zero emissions by mid-century: taking more ambitious climate action and reducing emissions sooner could enhance the region’s economic and social development. The report draws on new modeling commissioned from Cambridge Econometrics that examines the costs, benefits, and trade-offs of the Asia-Pacific’s options to implement its current and more ambitious mitigation targets, as well as how variations in the power sector mix could enhance development while meeting climate goals. According to the analysis, hitting net zero emissions by 2050 could increase the Asia-Pacific's gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 6.3 percent above projected levels and generate as many as 36.5 million additional jobs by the 2030s, as compared to the 5 percent GDP boost and 25.1 million additional jobs that current climate commitments could generate. A net zero 2050 pathway could also lead to energy cost savings of $270 billion for local households and improve the region's trade balance by as much as $827 billion, largely due to a reduction in fossil fuel dependence. Prioritizing low-cost renewable energy sources like solar and wind power could help the Asia-Pacific avoid $2.2 trillion in investment requirements. The report also recognizes potential challenges associated with the transition to net zero and proposes solutions, such as facilitating the flow of international finance to mitigate adverse impacts on household spending and developing comprehensive plans to help displaced fossil fuel workers take advantage of new employment opportunities. In 2023, Asia has another compelling opportunity to globally step up on climate. A confluence of major multilateral processes will take place in the Asian region, including the G7 in Japan, the G20 in India, and the 28th UN Climate Conference (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates on behalf of the Asia-Pacific Group. Moreover, the first Global Stocktake at COP28 in December 2023 will assess the global state of progress and remaining gaps to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals. The commissioned modeling shows that aligning the Asia-Pacific’s climate ambition with a 1.5°C trajectory is not only possible — it could also be the more beneficial path forward for the region.
Topic:: Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: Asia

11. China, climate change and the energy transition

Author:: Professor Xu Yi-Chong
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This report surveys China’s enormous energy transition to renewables. It begins by sketching the energy challenges China faces and its climate-change-related energy policies, in the context of the global geopolitics of the energy transformation. Next the report focuses on conventional energy sources (oil and natural gas), followed by electricity, and energy technologies. Although the report is intended primarily to survey developments to date, it concludes with some brief observations about the considerable energy challenges China faces in the years ahead.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: China and Asia

12. China, climate and conflict in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Anastasia Kapetas
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This paper surveys the current reporting and analysis on climate and security to explore the implications that climate change may have for China’s ability to prosecute its security goals in the region’s three major hotspots: the SCS, Taiwan and the India–China border conflict. Those three hotspots all involve longstanding border and territorial disputes between China and other nations and may draw in various levels of US involvement should China continue to escalate tensions.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

13. Updating Estimates of Methane Emissions: The Case of China

Author:: Zichong Chen and Daniel Jacob
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Harvard Initiative to Reduce Global Methane Emissions released its first publication in May 2023: a research brief titled “Updating Estimates of Methane Emissions: The Case of China.” The Initiative is one of five interdisciplinary research clusters funded by the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University. The Harvard Project on Climate Agreements collaborates in the implementation of the Initiative. The brief summarizes research by Professor Daniel Jacob and postdoctoral fellow Zichong Chen, atmospheric scientists at Harvard University, with their colleagues. Jacob and Chen use high-resolution data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), onboard a satellite launched in 2017, to estimate national and sectoral methane emissions more accurately than has been possible in the past. They draw upon atmospheric transport models to invert the satellite observations of methane concentrations, using advanced statistical methods, and infer emissions quantities and locations from the observed atmospheric concentrations. This method has yielded generally higher estimates of emissions than in previous reports, including in the case of China. Future methane-initiative briefs will address similar research the authors and their colleagues are conducting in the United States, Latin America, North Africa, and other countries and regions. An accurate picture of aggregate and sector-level methane emissions is important to better target mitigation policies. It is hoped that the results of the research described here and in subsequent briefs will advance national efforts and international collaboration aimed at reducing methane emissions. The Harvard Initiative to Reduce Global Methane Emissions seeks meaningful and sustained progress in global methane-emissions reductions through research and effective engagement with policymakers in government and key stakeholders in business, nongovernmental organizations, and international institutions. Reduced methane emissions can significantly reduce, in the near term, the magnitude of climate change and its associated impacts. The Initiative’s objectives span the full range of disciplines and topics associated with this challenge. Among its objectives are to build on scientific research on measurement and attribution of emissions; understand legal, regulatory, and political opportunities and constraints to methane-emissions reductions in the United States; design policies that might best contribute to methane emissions reduction; work effectively through existing international venues, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; and define roles that business and international and multilateral organizations can play in this effort.
Topic:: Climate Change, Methane, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

14. Military capabilities affected by climate change: An analysis of China, Russia and the United States

Author:: Adaja Stoetman, Dick Zandee, Ties Dams, Niels Drost, and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of the present and the future. Rising temperatures and sea levels, as well as extreme weather events are manifestations of climate change that also influence military capabilities. Increased attention for the climate change-security nexus is visible both at the national and the international level: nationally through the incorporation of climate change in security strategies and internationally through incorporation in important strategic documents such as the EU’s Strategic Compass and NATO’s Strategic Concept. Given its transnational nature, governments around the world have a shared responsibility to face climate change. A particular role is laid down for the global powers, China, Russia and the United States, given their position in the world. It is, however, questionable whether the global powers’ interests align. They differ in their approaches to address climate change, and even more so in their views on how it affects the armed forces. China and particularly Russia are more reluctant towards depicting climate change as a matter of international security. This is for example visible in international forums, such as the UN Security Council. In contrast, in the US, support for climate action is subject to political preferences, but climate related security risks are widely recognised within the defence establishment. This report reviews various aspects of the relationship between climate and security, with a particular focus on the military. It discusses the role of climate change in a country’s security and defence strategy and, vice versa, the changing tasks and deployment of the armed forces in response to climate change, the effects of climate change on military infrastructure, and measures to realise a greener defence sector.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, European Union, and Military
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

15. Korea Matters for America/America Matters for Korea (2023)

Author:: East-West Center
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The 4th edition of Korea Matters for America/America Matters for Korea, part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, maps the trade, investment, employment, business, diplomacy, security, education, tourism, and people-to-people connections between the United States and South Korea at the national, state, and local levels. This publication and the AsiaMattersforAmerica.org website are resources for understanding the robust and dynamic US-Indo-Pacific relationship.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Environment, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Population, Public Health, and Travel
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

16. Japan Matters for America/America Matters for Japan (2023)

Author:: East-West Center
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The 4th edition of Japan Matters for America/America Matters for Japan, part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, maps the trade, investment, employment, business, diplomacy, security, education, tourism, and people-to-people connections between the United States and Japan at the national, state, and local levels. This publication and the AsiaMattersforAmerica.org website are resources for understanding the robust and dynamic US-Indo-Pacific relationship.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Population, Public Health, and Travel
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

17. Time to say goodbye? The impact of environmental regulation on foreign divestment

Author:: Haiou Mao, Holger Görg, and Guopei Fang
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We look at divestments by foreign firms – a topic that has received comparatively little attention in the literature – and investigate how changes in the regulatory environment in the host country may impact on such divestment decisions. We use the implementation of China’s Two Control Zone (TCZ) policy as a “quasi-natural experiment”, using detailed firm level combined with city level data for the empirical analysis. Our results show that the implementation of TCZ policy has led to higher probabilities of divestments by foreign firms in targeted TCZ cities and industries. The mechanism behind this seems to be a TCZ-induced increase in discharge fees and efforts to reduce SO2 emissions. Allowing for heterogeneity of effects, we find that the effect is particularly strong for firms from source countries with less stringent environmental regulation, and those using less advanced technology. We furthermore show that firms using intermediates from polluting industries also experience a higher probability of divestment.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Foreign Direct Investment, Regulation, Business, and Divestment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

18. Water diplomacy analysis for Central Asia: Dynamics of insecurity and sources of resilience

Author:: Emma Hakala, Katariina Mustasilta, and Mohammed Hadi
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Climate change, geopolitical tensions and other global crises emphasise the need for water diplomacy, which refers to the prevention and resolution of political tensions with the help of water expertise and diplomatic tools. Disputes over water can contribute to instability, but fair and well-governed management of water resources can serve as a platform for cooperation and peacebuilding. In Central Asia, water has a crucial role as a precondition for economic and social development, but also for relations between the countries in the region due to the largely transboundary and shared character of resources. Questions about water use have been intertwined in disputes about other unresolved issues between the countries in the past. As the impacts of climate change become increasingly visible and are likely to further reduce water access, it is important to better understand the water conflict and resilience dynamics. This analysis traces the potential for water diplomacy in Central Asia. It identifies major conflict factors, peace enablers, regional dynamics and the role of water resources. The analysis takes an anticipatory, forward-looking approach, particularly focusing on sources of resilience and potential points of cooperation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Water, Governance, Crisis Management, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Asia

19. Is there Eurasian Connectivity without Europe?

Author:: Niva Yau
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Tucked between Russia, Iran, and China, Central Asia is now desperately looking for solutions to cushion the impacts of global tension on its fragile economies, which are deeply tied to sanctions against Russia and a local production slowdown as China recovers from its zero COVID policy. While European diplomacy has come at a crucial time, its Central Asian policy is ambiguous, and commitments misplaced. Central Asia is continuously perceived by the EU as a region in need of developmental assistance, which leads to European regional policies that focus on digitalization and climate issues. What Central Asia needs is the establishment of concrete logistical connectivity that will enable efficient flow of products across Eurasia.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Economics, European Union, Connectivity, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, Eurasia, and Asia

20. Contradictions Within The PRC’s Climate Strategy

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The 28th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) drew to a close earlier this week (UNEP, December 13). The COP meetings always produce a mixture of successes and disappointments, and only constitute a portion of the myriad processes that impact the global energy transition and race to stabilize the planetary system. This year’s conference was no different. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) was actively engaged throughout, hosting a variety of events at their pavilion reflecting the breadth and depth of the country’s critical engagement with the issues (National Climate Strategy Center, November 28). However, the PRC’s is still appraised as falling far short of what is required to meet the Paris climate goals and is not commensurate with its position in the international system (Climate Action Tracker, November 22). This year, the PRC ranks first in the world for total annual emissions, and second in both cumulative (historical) emissions and GDP. Meanwhile, it has failed to advance its ambitions or provide leadership to match its rhetoric of being—to use Xi Jinping’s words from his Party Congress speech—an “important participant, contributor, and torchbearer” in addressing climate change (Xinhua, November 3, 2017). The PRC delegation constituted the joint-third largest at the conference, and was led by Zhao Yingmin (赵英民), vice-minister at the Ministry of Environment and Ecology (MEE). Also present were minister Huang Runqiu (黄润秋), special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua (解振华), and UN under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs Liu Zhenmin (刘振民), who is expected to replace Xie as he steps down after 25 years as the PRC’s top climate negotiator. Crucially, Executive Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang (丁薛祥), a Politburo Standing Committee member who holds real power over China’s climate policy (in a way that the MEE officials do not), also attended.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

21. The Chinese Steel Industry: Three Pathways to Green Steel

Author:: Chin Hsueh
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On February 6, the China Meteorological Association (CMA) published the 2022 China Climate Bulletin (中国气候公报) (China Climate Bulletin, February 7). The annual report provides an overall analysis of China’s climate conditions and tracks significant meteorological disasters and major climate events from the previous year (CMA, February 24). The newly released China Climate Bulletin noted that the country recorded its second-highest annual mean temperature in history last year. In fact, last year’s spring, summer and autumn temperatures were the highest since record keeping began (China Climate Bulletin, February 7). During the press conference for the release of the bulletin, Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of China’s National Climate Center, stressed the importance of remaining alert to those “low probability, high impact” (小概率, 高影响) climate events, such as the heat wave that hit China in 2013, driving temperatures above 104 degrees Fahrenheit in at least 40 cities and counties (China News Service, February 7; Sohu, July 30, 2013). No plausible path to mitigating global climate change exists without China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, greatly reducing its carbon footprint. Among China’s major GDP drivers, few play a more critical role in the country’s decarbonization efforts than the steel sector (International Energy Agency, September 13, 2021). The steel industry is second only to power generation in terms of its carbon footprint, generating about 17 percent of China’s annual emissions (China Dialogue, May 23, 2022). In fact, the state-owned conglomerate China Baowu Steel Group (中国宝武),which is the world’s largest steel producer, put more CO2 into the atmosphere in 2020 than Pakistan (Jiemian, August 21, 2020).
Topic:: Climate Change, Manufacturing, Industry, Carbon Emissions, and Steel
Political Geography:: China and Asia

22. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from State-Owned Enterprises: A Preliminary Inventory

Author:: Alex Clark and Philippe Benoit
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play a major role in the production of goods and services across many of the world’s largest economies, particularly in electricity generation, oil and gas, and heavy industry. SOEs (defined in this report as companies for which 50 percent or more of voting shares are held by a government) are also major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The governments that control these SOEs are also signatories to the Paris Agreement on climate change. State ownership provides these governments with a major direct point of control over the climate and energy outcomes of these companies, both in terms of reducing emissions and directing future investment into low-carbon technologies and infrastructure. Improving the measurement of SOEs’ contribution to both national and global-level emissions provides important information to help understand to what extent SOEs should be targeted and to design strategies to maximize their potential role in the broader energy transition. This report provides an accounting of direct emissions associated with SOEs globally. It is challenging to comprehensively identify every SOE, as the total is estimated at well over 100,000. In addition, most identified SOEs do not disclose their emissions nor are estimates of these emissions available in the public domain. Despite these limitations, data compiled for this report covering almost 300 major SOEs suggest that SOEs globally are responsible for at least 7.49 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) annually in direct (Scope 1) emissions. While the true scale of SOE-related emissions is likely to be substantially higher, particularly when accounting for national oil companies and iron and steel manufacturers that do not currently report their emissions, this figure is over 1 GtCO2e greater than various previous estimates, and larger than the total annual emissions of any country except China.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global Focus

23. Japan on the Front Line

Author:: Noah Sneider, Philip Lipscy, and Daniel Smith
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: From population aging, to national security threats, to climate change and natural disasters, Japan is at the forefront of challenges that will soon confront many societies. What can the world learn from Japan’s experience? Noah Sneider and Phillip Lipscy will offer their perspectives on Japan as a “harbinger state,” a country that experiences many challenges before other countries in the international system. This event is sponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Study Center.
Topic:: Climate Change, National Security, Natural Disasters, and Aging
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

24. Green New Deal for Carbon-neutrality and Open Trade Policy in Korea

Author:: Jukwan Lee, Jongduk Kim, Jinyoung Moon, Jyun-Hyun Eom, Ji Hyeon Kim, and Jungmin Suh
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study focuses on Korea’s Green New Deal policy and global response measures to climate change that affect international trade. A trade policy perspective and approach have been applied while reviewing the carbon-neutral policy pursued by the Green New Deal. We attempted through an empirical analysis to determine whether the expansion of openness helps reduce carbon emissions and simulate the impact of a carbon-neutral policy, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment, on the global economy under global production networks. In addition, the amount of financial support from Korea's Green New Deal needed to offset the negative economic effects of other countries’ independent carbon-neutral policies was derived. This study finally suggests that the effect of the Green New Deal can be expanded through the restoration of openness and global cooperation.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Economy, Trade, Carbon Emissions, and Green New Deal
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

25. Mine Action and the Environment in Karabakh

Author:: Emil Hasanov
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The now‑liberated areas of Azerbaijan are contaminated by mines and explosive remnants of war (ERW), the clearance thereof being one of Baku’s highest post‑conflict priorities. Before proceeding any further, we must provide proper definitions of these terms, since they are technical in nature and thus may not be familiar to the general reader. According to the Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti‑Personnel Mines and on Their Destruction that was adopted in Oslo in 1997 and entered into force in 1999 (it is colloquially called the AntiPersonnel Mine Ban Convention, or APMBC), an anti‑personnel mine “means a mine designed to be exploded by the presence, proximity or contact of a person and that will incapacitate, injure or kill one or more persons.” An antivehicle or antitank mine is effectually the same thing, except that it is designed to explode when triggered by a vehicle. Together, they fall under the catchall term mine, which the same document defines as a “munition designed to be placed under, on, or near the ground or other surface area and to be exploded by the presence, proximity, or contact of a person or a vehicle.” Furthermore, explosive remnants of war (ERW) are defined as explosive munitions left behind after a conflict has ended. They include unexploded artillery shells, grenades, mortars, rockets, air‑dropped bombs, and cluster munitions. If such weapons fail to detonate as intended for whatever reason, they are called unexploded ordnance (UXO); if, on the other hand, they have not been used during an armed conflict and have been left behind by the party that brought them to the battlefield, they are called abandoned explosive ordnance (AXO). Lastly, cluster bombs or cluster munitions, which are defined as weapons containing from several to hundreds of explosive submunitions. They are dropped either from the air or fired from the ground and are designed to break open in mid‑air, releasing submunitions and saturating an area that can be as wide as several football pitches. Based on past practice, the failure rate of cluster munitions to explode as intended stands at between 10 and 30 percent.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Mining, and Recovery
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Asia, and Azerbaijan

26. Climate change and food prices in Southeast Asia

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Southeast Asia’s climate has become warmer, wetter and more unpredictable over the past decade. Our bespoke analysis finds that these changes in weather conditions have had a significant impact on the cost of food production in levels terms and in increased food price volatility. Specifically, a 1% increase in temperature versus a year ago is found to increase food production costs by 0.5-0.8% across Southeast Asian economies, and extreme heat events in Thailand and Vietnam in recent years have driven price spikes of 5-6%. Climate futures in which temperatures rise fastest and weather volatility increases most have the potential to generate ever-faster food price growth and greater price spikes. More stable food prices are, therefore, one key incentive for governments in the region to do their part to help the world transition toward net zero. But the sector’s intensive use of energy and logistics to produce and distribute food will mean the shift to low-carbon energy could also have major cost implications for the sector. So while prices may be more stable in a net-zero world, they will nevertheless face pressures from the transition. Fortunately, the government can explore a range of policy options to ease the cost of transition and mitigate the impact of food price volatility. These policy options encompass agricultural policy, energy efficiency, social policy, and trade and investment policies. Together with Food Industry Asia, Oxford Economics looks forward to developing this debate in the months and years ahead, building on the foundations presented in this report.
Topic:: Climate Change, Food Security, Weather, and Price
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

27. US-Korea Cooperation on Climate Change

Author:: Troy Stangarone
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Troy Stangarone, Senior Director and Fellow, Korea Economic Institute of America, explains that "the United States and South Korea have taken steps domestically to reduce their emissions, while making climate change an important part of their efforts to expand the US-Korea alliance beyond traditional security and economic issues."
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

28. Taiwan’s Big and Clean Bets: Towards Green Cooperation

Author:: Wen-Yu Weng
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Wen-Yu Weng, Clean Energy and Climate Response Expert at PA Consulting, explains that "the future of Taiwan’s energy transition lies in making big bets in highly creative and highly technical approaches" and green energy "policy needs to embrace the fundamentally decentralized and democratized nature of solution-generation, agenda-setting, and experimental models."
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Taiwan and Asia

29. A Primer on the 2022 National Security Strategy

Author:: Peter Juul and Heba Malik
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The 2022 National Security Strategy introduces new ideas on navigating strategic competition with China and Russia, investing at home, and a renewed focus on the fight against climate change.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, National Security, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

30. Building a Quad-South Korea Partnership for Climate Action

Author:: Kristi Govella
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Climate change is a pressing global problem that requires action at the local, national, and international levels. While most policy has logically focused on creating international pacts to address and mitigate climate change, interest in regional or minilateral cooperation among smaller groups of countries has also grown in recent years. When the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—more commonly known as the Quad—convened its first leader-level summit in March 2021, its member countries Australia, India, Japan, and the United States identified climate change as a priority for the grouping and for the Indo-Pacific. They established a Quad Climate Working Group to strengthen implementation of the Paris Agreement and to cooperate on climate mitigation, adaptation, resilience, technology, capacity building, and finance.1 Since then, the Quad has continued to expand its climate activities. In September 2021, the grouping added the formation of a green-shipping network and the establishment of a clean-hydrogen partnership to its goals.2 In May 2022, the four partners took the additional step of launching the Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP).3 Why have the Quad countries decided to include climate change on their agenda? They share serious concerns about climate change, which poses a significant threat to themselves and to the Indo-Pacific as a whole. In recent years, climate change has risen in prominence on the domestic political agendas of the four Quad partners, and there are gains to be achieved through coordination and cooperation of their separate national efforts. At a time when many countries feel that international institutions simply are not working quickly or effectively enough, minilateral initiatives such as the Quad have gained appeal as a more flexible way to facilitate joint action.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Partnerships, Quad Alliance, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

31. Global Food Insecurity – Food Import: Reducing ASEAN’s Dependency

Author:: Paul Teng
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The current food insecurity caused by the three Cs — COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and conflicts — has highlighted the reliance of many ASEAN states on imported staple food and feed. ASEAN needs to seriously re-examine its priorities to reduce import dependency.
Topic:: Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and ASEAN

32. Expanding the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Technology and Climate Change Adaptation: Opportunities and Challenges

Author:: Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: While ongoing debates on the critical role of nuclear power plants in achieving the goals established in the 2015 Paris Agreement remain unsettled, the peaceful applications of nuclear technology in climate change adaptation have been expanding in recent years. The peaceful uses of nuclear technology cannot be excluded from innovative approaches to addressing the world’s most pressing and complex challenge─ climate change. This NTS Insight examines how nuclear technology can be deployed to strengthen climate adaptation measures and presents case studies from several Southeast Asian countries that have nuclear research and scientific programmes. Nuclear technology is being utilised in adopting climate-smart agriculture, modernising water management, enhancing greenhouse gas emissions analysis, and combatting plastic pollution. This Insight offers agendas for action by Southeast Asian countries to address key challenges to expanding the role of nuclear technology in addressing climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Asia

33. ndonesia’s 2060 Net-Zero Ambition: The Challenges Ahead

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Recent developments in Indonesia’s sustainability outlook that includes a net-zero goal by 2060 are pointing to stronger commitments to reducing carbon emissions from energy use. At the same time, short- to medium-term realities, and a lack of public trust may derail the long-term sustainability vision.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Asia

34. Tackling the Challenges of Climate Change Adaptation in Central America: Can Korea Contribute?

Author:: Seungho Lee
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Climate change adaptation has long been established as a regional and national priority in Central American countries. Korea, as a responsible middle power in global governance, should not hesitate to play a more active role in tackling their adaptation challenges. This brief summarizes a number of findings and policy suggestions from Lee et al. (2021), which identifies promising cooperation areas in the field of climate change adaptation between Korea and four Central American countries and proposes cooperation schemes in each area.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Governance, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and Central America

35. Nuclear energy in a low-carbon future: Implications for the United States and Japan

Author:: Stephen S. Greene
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Nuclear power has received renewed global interest as a secure source of carbon-free energy. In the context of worsening climate change and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and resultant energy market constrictions, many countries are actively pursuing conventional and advanced nuclear development, while others are canceling or postponing scheduled shutdowns. As climate change continues to impact both energy supply and demand, nuclear energy is poised to play a major role in the reliability of the future clean energy mix. Challenges to nuclear rollout will require solutions. Construction timelines remain extended, as do licensing processes. Social constraints also hinder development prospects. These potential stumbling blocks require steadfast coordination between allies like the United States and Japan, especially as other nuclear energy heavyweights like Russia and China avoid many of those same bottlenecks in their pursuit of domestic buildout and export. Despite those issues, though, nuclear energy is forecasted to play a major role in the later stages of the energy transition, in which countries look to decarbonize the more difficult parts of their economies. The advent of advanced technologies and the completion of large-scale projects portends the arrival of nuclear energy’s reliability and versatility just as the global energy sector needs it.
Topic:: Climate Change, Nuclear Power, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

36. Climate finance in Asia: Assessing the state of climate finance in one of the world’s most climate vulnerable regions

Author:: Christopher Roy
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Asia is particularly vulnerable to climate hazards including extreme temperatures, flooding, droughts, cyclones, and sea level rise. The most vulnerable communities need financial support to help adapt to the climate crisis – they cannot do so alone. Developed countries have promised $100 bn in climate finance to developing countries every year until 2025. This promise has not been met. Asian countries have outlined the support they require and delivering on these needs is integral to bringing climate justice to those most vulnerable to – yet least responsible for – the climate crisis. We find that the climate finance provided to Asia is woefully inadequate to support the necessary adaptation actions and vulnerable communities are suffering as a result.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Finance, and Climate Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

37. China's Course to Carbon Neutrality

Author:: Cory Combs
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: China is in the midst of a wholesale economic transformation, driven by the central government’s pursuit of sustainability in all its forms: economic, social, and environmental. At the heart of this transformation sit Xi Jinping’s “dual carbon” targets: one to peak emissions before 2030, and the other to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. However, such straightforward guiding targets belie the monumental complexity of unraveling and then rebuilding the fossil fuel–driven economy that enabled China’s rapid rise as a global economic power. The difficulties of moving China’s economy up the value chain – particularly from low-grade, emissions-intensive industrial manufacturing toward high value-add, green and low-carbon production – are compounded by the immense political frictions posed by entrenched interests and bureaucratic inertia. In this context, it is imperative for observers – particularly those keen on engaging with China during its grand green transformation experiment – to understand the many pieces, players, and problems involved. To this end, this report takes stock of China’s planning and reform efforts across the domains of climate, energy, and industrial upgrading since the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) was adopted. It then assesses the key drivers and constraints shaping these efforts, with the aim of elucidating the most likely path ahead – even as Beijing itself continues to map it out.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Economy, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

38. China’s National ETS and the Power Market: How the ETS Can Achieve Significant Emission Reductions

Author:: Yan Qin, Alistair Ritchie, and Yi Chen
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: China’s newly established national emissions trading system (ETS) is intended to serve as the primary tool in assisting China in meeting its "dual carbon" target of CO2 peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. It is the largest ETS globally, accounting for 40 percent of China's CO2 emissions and more than 10 percent of worldwide emissions, with the potential to double its current size once industrial sectors are added. In its initial phase, it covers the power sector, particularly more than 2,000 enterprises operating coal- and gas-fired power stations. However, some critical challenges need to be overcome before the ETS can fulfill its emissions reduction potential in the power sector by driving fuel switching away from coal and toward renewables and low-carbon fuels through the carbon price. China's National ETS and The Power Market: How the ETS Can Achieve Significant Emission Reductions examines these challenges in relation to both the ETS itself and its interactions with the power market. It also proposes a policy pathway to address these challenges and unlock their potential to drive significant and cost-effective CO2 emissions reductions in the power sector and raise large amounts of revenue to fund the transition to carbon neutrality across the expanding ETS sectors.
Topic:: Climate Change, Markets, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

39. The EU’s Proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Its Implications for Asia

Author:: Hubert Fallmann, Alistair Ritchie, and Yi Chen
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: To achieve a climate-neutral European Union (EU) by 2050 in line with the Paris Agreement, the EU needs to more ambitiously reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the coming decade and update its climate and energy policy framework. The recently adopted European Climate Law sets a new EU target for 2030 of reducing GHG emissions by at least 55 percent compared to 1990 levels. To deliver this, the European Commission has proposed a “Fit for 55” package containing, among other initiatives, legislative proposals for a revision of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) with a more stringent emissions cap and a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The CBAM will put a carbon price on imports of a targeted selection of goods with the aim of 1). ensuring that ambitious climate action in the EU does not lead to carbon leakage, and 2). encouraging partner countries to implement similar carbon-pricing policies. This policy, even at its proposal stage, has created a significant impact worldwide in supporting the uptake of carbon-pricing policies and in encouraging consideration of similar carbon border adjustment policies. The EU’s Proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Its Implications for Asia investigates the details of the EU’s proposed CBAM and its specific implications for companies and governments in Asia.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

40. Taiwan Matters for America/America Matters for Taiwan

Author:: East-West Center
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The inaugural edition of Taiwan Matters for America/America Matters for Taiwan, part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, maps the trade, investment, employment, business, diplomacy, security, education, tourism, and people-to-people connections between the United States and the Taiwan at the national, state, and local levels. This publication and the AsiaMattersforAmerica.org website are resources for understanding the robust and dynamic US-Indo-Pacific relationship.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Environment, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Culture, Population, and Travel
Political Geography:: Taiwan and Asia

41. New Opportunities for the United States-Kingdom of Thailand Alliance in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Lance D. Jackson
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In March 2022, the East-West Center in Washington (EWCW), in collaboration with the Royal Thai Embassy, Washington, DC, convened a two-day seminar in which experts from Thailand and the United States discussed issues and opportunities for the US-Thailand alliance. The workshop included a diverse array of discussants hailing from government, military, academic, think tank, and private sector backgrounds. This report, which adheres to the “Chatham House Rule” under which observations referred to in the report are not attributed to any individual participant, is a summary of the group discussions and the key themes from the seminar. The recent signing of the United States-Thailand Communique on Strategic Alliance and Partnership and a memorandum of understanding (MOU) focused on promoting supply chain resilience on July 10, 2022, highlight the pertinence of this report and the associated seminar. The topics detailed in this report aligned with many of the pressing issues addressed in the Communique and MOU, including expanding law enforcement cooperation, deepening cybersecurity collaboration, supporting resilient transportation corridors, advancing military modernization, and catalyzing Thailand’s bio-circular-green (BCG) economy. The report also covered topics and key themes from a series of jointly produced public webinars and an Asia Pacific Bulletin series of policy briefs on US-Thai affairs.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Environment, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Population, Leadership, Public Health, and Travel
Political Geography:: Asia, North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

42. Natural Gas in South-east Asia: Key Trends and Long-term Outlook

Author:: Luca Franza and Beni Suryadi
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Given the increasing gas demand and declining domestic supply, countries in South-east Asia are bracing themselves to become net gas importers and are studying ways to enhance their security of supply. LNG will be the preferred source of gas, thanks to its flexibility and widespread availability at competitive prices in global markets. However, concerns related to excessive gas import dependency might reduce appetite for additional gas usage in South-east Asia. This could mean that coal would have a larger role, which is bad news for climate change. Countries in the ASEAN region need policies to achieve balanced, reliable, secure and cost-effective energy supply, a pre-requisite for the region’s ambitious economic development plans. A combination of solid local policies, investment by international players in the region and stability in global gas markets would enable gas to play a positive role in South-east Asia, which is a fast-growing region and an increasingly important catalyst of global energy market developments. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, May 2021.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

43. Climate Variability and Steppe Empires: New Findings and Future Directions

Author:: Nicola Di Cosmo
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Nicola Di Cosmo, Henry Luce Foundation Professor of East Asian History, Institute for Advanced Study; Associate Member at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University Moderated by: Gray Tuttle, Leila Hadley Luce Professor of Modern Tibetan Studies, Department of East Asian Languages and Cultures, Columbia University Three decades of climatological research in Mongolia and neighboring regions have transformed our knowledge about the environmental history of Inner Asian empires. The processes that gave rise to these political formations, many of which have played a distinct and crucial role in Chinese history, are still very poorly understood. High-resolution climatic reconstructions, when placed in historical contexts, provide clues about the nomads' responses to climatic variability, and thus illuminate critical nexuses between economic production, social structures, and political change. By illustrating a range of representative historical cases studies, this lecture will explore both the nature of the data and the methods that historians and climatologists have adopted to gauge the impact of climate upon pre-modern nomadic peoples.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Politics, History, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Mongolia, and Asia

44. Developing Effective Benchmark-Based Allocation for Industrial Sectors: The Case of the Korean ETS

Author:: Dong-Hyeok Kwon and Alistair Ritchie
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: Emissions trading systems (ETS) are increasingly being introduced as a way of cost-effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions to meet ambitious national climate change targets, including Nationally Determined Contributions and net-zero long-term goals under the Paris Agreement. A key concern for governments and industry, however, is how to protect industry’s global competitiveness and prevent “carbon leakage”, that is, the transfer of production to world regions with less ambitious climate policies that would lead to an increase in total emissions. To address this concern, ETS allowances are typically allocated for free to greenhouse gas (GHG)-intensive or trade-intensive industries at risk of carbon leakage. The type of free allocation design is important because it directly impacts on the financial performance of companies. It also determines how companies are rewarded. Those that have invested more in GHG reduction technologies will be rewarded better under a benchmark (BM)-based allocation approach, where allocation is based on the level of production multiplied by an emissions intensity benchmark. Those that have invested less in such technologies will be rewarded better under a grandfathered approach, where allocation is based on historic emissions. However, while BM-based allocation is generally regarded as a fairer method, it is also considered more difficult to design and implement. This Asia Society Policy Institute issue paper, Developing Effective Benchmark-Based Allocation for Industrial Sectors: The Case of the Korean ETS, shows how BM-based allocation has been successfully implemented for some of Korea’s most important industrial sectors, steel and petrochemicals. It provides valuable insights and recommendations for other countries to develop an effective allocation system in a timely and efficient way.
Topic:: Climate Change, Trade, Carbon Emissions, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and Korea

45. ASPI NOTES for the Biden Administration

Author:: Wendy Cutler, Anubhav Gupta, Nathan Levine, Richard Maude, Elina Noor, Jing Qian, Alistair Ritchie, Kevin Rudd, Daniel R. Russel, and Thom Woodroofe
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: The Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) Notes for the Biden Administration is designed to offer creative and practical ideas for how the United States might re-engage in the Asia Pacific, particularly in the critical first six months of the new administration. The administration will immediately face a range of challenges and opportunities in this important region, including on climate change, public health, and the global economy. President-elect Biden and his team have signaled the need for the United States to lean into and deepen its engagement with friends and allies. This will mean leveraging the Asia Pacific’s multilateral architecture as well as using global forums such as the G20 and international organizations. Trade policy will also figure importantly in any effort to renew and expand America’s engagement. Additionally, the U.S.-China relationship will loom large from the outset. Tensions with China will surely linger, whether in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait, complicating the task of establishing a new framework of “managed strategic competition” – a combination of each side's "red lines," continued competition, plus agreement on areas of mutually beneficial cooperation. ASPI Notes for the Biden Administration provides a diverse package of 20 actionable proposals to address specific risks or objectives in reconnecting with the Asia Pacific. These notes carefully reflect the views, perspectives, and expectations of the region itself – a hallmark of ASPI’s approach.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Economy, Trade, Public Health, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

46. How Green is China’s Belt and Road Initiative?

Author:: Alice Politi
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been described as the largest infrastructure project in history, affecting around 60 per cent of the global population. Whilst promoting a narrative of connectivity, growth and “win-win partnerships”, the project has received opposing assessments regarding its wider impact, particularly in the environmental domain.
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, Green Technology, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

47. Gains Associated with Linking the EU and Chinese ETS under Different Assumptions on Restrictions, Allowance Endowments, and international Trade

Author:: Malte Winkler, Sonja Peterson, and Sneha Thube
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Linking the EU and Chinese Emission Trading Systems (ETS) increases the cost-efficiency of reaching greenhouse gas mitigation targets, but both partners will benefit – if at all – to different degrees. Using the global computable-general equilibrium (CGE) model DART Kiel, we evaluate the effects of linking ETS in combination with 1) restricted allowances trading, 2) adjusted allowance endowments to compensate China, and 3) altered Armington elasticities when Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets are met. We find that generally, both partners benefit from linking their respective trading systems. Yet, while the EU prefers full linking, China favors restricted allowance trading. Transfer payments through adjusted allowance endowments cannot sufficiently compensate China so as to make full linking as attractive as restricted trading. Gains associated with linking increase with higher Armington elasticities for China, but decrease for the EU. Overall, the EU and China favor differing options of linking ETS. Moreover, heterogeneous impacts across EU countries could cause dissent among EU regions, potentially increasing the difficulty of finding a linking solution favorable for all trading partners.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

48. China vs. US: The Green Energy Race

Author:: Katharine Klačanský
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: In her policy paper, Katharine Klačanský, Research Fellow at EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, discusses the role of climate in geopolitics and provides an overview of the Chinese and American green investment plan and its implications for the future of fossil fuels.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Geopolitics, Green Technology, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

49. The post-Covid city: the ongoing spatial and technological reconfiguration in China and the world

Author:: Philip Yang, Carlo Ratti, Kamila Aben Athar, and Yung Ho Chang
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: Considering the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on our everyday life, the XXV China Analysis Group Meeting focused on the organization of large cities and the reordering of urban agglomerations. According to the participants, the maintenance of this model and the rearrangement, focused on urban sprawl, are valid alternatives, each with its own set of advantages and disadvantages. Another issue discussed was the impact of technologies on how cities are shaped in the 21st century, to which participants responded by mentioning the role of artificial intelligence and big data in making the architecture behave like a living organism. However, they also warned about the importance of developing a balance between the natural and the artificial world. Finally, the participants said that for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, it is necessary for each city to adopt specific policies that suit its own reality, because there is not a universal formula.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Science and Technology, Cities, Carbon Emissions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global Focus

50. Understanding Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau: Climate Data and Community Knowledge

Author:: Emily Yeh, Huatse Gyal, Kelly Hopping, Hung Nguyen, Boniface Fosu, and Brendan Buckley
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: The Tibetan Plateau spans more than one million square miles at the center of Eurasia with an average elevation of over 12,000 feet - by far the most extensive high-altitude region on Earth. Resulting from the collision of continental plates more than 50 million years ago, the Tibetan Plateau continues to play a major role in determining the climate that we experience today. More recently, the Tibetan Plateau has seen more significant warming than surrounding regions due to its higher altitude. As such, Tibetan communities are at the forefront of experiencing the impacts of climate change and their knowledge of such changes may contribute to better understanding the effects of a changing climate on this most significant region. This round table brought together social science researchers working with Tibetan pastoralist communities on the Tibetan Plateau and climate scientists who have worked in the Himalayas and Asia to discuss how interdisciplinary approaches might enrich understandings of climate change on the Tibetan Plateau and contribute to our knowledge of global climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Pastoralism, and Social Science
Political Geography:: Asia and Tibet

51. Increasing Global Climate Ambition and Implications for Korea

Author:: Jinyoung Moon, Soo Hyun Oh, Youngseok Park, Sunghee Lee, and Eunmi Kim
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, wider and decisive actions to tackle climate change and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been called for in the international community. Many countries are seeking a sustainable economic recovery plan that reflects climate change and environmental considerations. The private sector has also been trying to expand environmentally sustainable investments and disclose relevant information on climate change. In particular, major GHG emitters such as China, the United States (U.S.), European Union (EU), Japan and Korea have pledged to move forward carbon neutrality. For this goal, the EU has established action plans for the European Green Deal, including a plan for introducing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). In this context, this study aims to propose policy recommendations for Korea by analyzing measures to strengthen reduction targets and the economic impact of the EU's CBAM. The following implications can be derived. First, it is necessary to support low-carbon transition efforts in industries. Second, it is also important to support low-carbon technological innovation. Third, monitoring and response measures for the CBAM should also be prepared. Fourth, the private sector should expand voluntary efforts to reduce emissions and environmentally sustainable investment. Lastly, it is necessary to actively engage in international cooperation, not only in terms of reducing GHG emissions but also responding to climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Science and Technology, Sustainability, Carbon Emissions, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

52. Climate, State, and Sovereignty: Self-Determination and Sea Level Rise

Author:: Christina Hioureas and Alejandra Torres Camprubi
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: Climate change and sea-level rise are existential threats to low-lying island States, which face the looming submergence of their territory and the correlative depopulation and severe restrictions on their governmental capacity, at a national and international levels. Four States are particularly endangered because they are exclusively (or almost exclusively) composed of coral islands and atolls below 10 or even five meters of altitude. They are Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean, and the Maldives in the Indian Ocean. In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change foresaw an average rise of sea level of 98 cm by 2100. This prospect, often regarded as conservative, in fact represents a possible death sentence for these States. As a result, low-lying island States are considering and deploying legal and physical strategies to protect their continuity as States, sparking new debates on the potential evolution of the law on Statehood and the international law of the sea.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Sovereignty, Governance, and Self Determination
Political Geography:: Asia, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Maldives

53. Ambitious Plans and Economic Pragmatism - China in the Face of Climate Change

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China’s policy on climate change mainly serves to improve its international image, increase the competitiveness of its economy, and strengthen the legitimacy of the Communist Party’s (CPC) power. China’s activities include the development of green technologies and the announcement of a plan to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by around 2030. However, the plans are unevenly implemented, sometimes even contrary to expectations, as evidenced by the construction of new coal-fired power plants. The problem of satisfying the country’s energy needs while protecting the environment means that the EU and the U.S. should treat China’s pro-climate declarations with caution.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, European Union, Green Technology, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

54. The Southern Gas Corridor and the New Geopolitics of Climate Change

Author:: Morena Skalamera
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: It has been argued that the U.S. shale revolution, the Trump Administration’s energy policies, and the global shift towards low‑carbon energy sources and renewables have contributed to shape a new energy order—one that challenges the market power traditionally enjoyed by petro‑states. Nowhere are these developments more relevant than in Azerbaijan, as the country’s expensive investments in the Southern Gas Corridor come under increasing pressure. Unless Azerbaijani gas can be decarbonized at a competitive cost, it may risk becoming redundant within a couple of decades as Europe embraces a greener future. Geopolitics and Geo‑economics The Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is a $45bn mega‑project ($25bn for the development of the Shah Deniz II field and at least $15bn for the delivery system) to supply natural gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe and, by so doing, reduce reliance on Russian imports. This is a priority that has taken on urgency in the wake of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and the sharp deterioration in relations between Moscow and Brussels that ensued. Currently, the SGC is made up of two pipelines to deliver gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz II field to Turkey and Europe—one called TANAP that is already operational and runs the length of Turkey, and another known as TAP stretching from Turkey’s border with Greece across Albania to Italy, which started pumping gas in late 2020. This is how a leading ADA University policy expert described the situation to me in October 2020, in light of technical delays in the pipeline’s inauguration and the big changes in energy markets described above: “the TAP pipeline is 90 percent completed and will be inaugurated soon. Unlike oil pipelines, whose flexible delivery to the end‑consumer can be sorted out once they are built— as oil travels via tanker, rail, etc.— gas pipelines are more rigid investment endeavors. [...] You don’t agree on a gas pipeline unless you have secured a buyer on the other end.” While natural gas supplies from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field are already contracted, the project has seen numerus twists and turns since it was signed with great fanfare at the end of 2013. The SGC is an expensive endeavor and the institutions that lined up to finance it are a testament to the degree of strategic importance it carries for the EU. The project has, indeed, been designated as one of the EU’s “priority projects.”
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Azerbaijan

55. Climate Politics and the Crisis of the Liberal International Order

Author:: Felipe Leal Albuquerque
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The election of Donald Trump brought disarray to the climate change regime. The changes in what was up to then a promoter of the liberal international order (LIO) exacerbated existing tensions while creating new ones. This paper investigates how that challenge impacted the behaviours of Brazil, China and the European Union (EU) by comparatively analysing their dissimilar positions with respect to three indicators before and after Trump’s coming into power. These indicators are individual pledges and climate-related policies; approaches to climate finance; and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The analysis first shows how the US started eroding the broader LIO and the climate change regime to then delve into the behaviours of the three respective key players concerning climate talks. I sustain that the EU, despite its inner divisions, is already counteracting Washington, whereas China is combining a pro-status quo position based on a rhetorical condemnation of the United States. Brazil, in turn, had a transition towards a climate-sceptic government, shifting from being a cooperative actor to abdicating hosting the COP25.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Liberal Order, Multilateralism, and International Order
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

56. EU – Japan Strategic dialogue: climate change cooperation as a pathway to the future

Author:: Peter Václavík
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Our intern Peter Václavík wrote a report on enhancing the relationship between the EU and Japan, which were discussed in the debate EU – Japan Strategic dialogue: climate change cooperation as a pathway to the future.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, and Asia

57. Planetary Health and Triple Planetary Crisis: Relevance for Multilateral Cooperation on Biodiversity Protection and Conservation in Southeast Asia

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a search of its causes. Among the various theories available, nature decline offers a compelling explanation for the outbreak and the spread of the disease. This coincides with the formulation of the term ‘triple planetary crisis’ which refers to simultaneous issues of pollution, climate change and biodiversity loss confronting the world today. These propositions give biodiversity protection a stronger focus and gain planetary health concept greater traction. In this regard, biodiversity protection and conservation measures at the regional level are particularly important given their transboundary coverage. Despite existing initiatives, they have yet to yield to outcomes sufficient to address triple planetary crisis. The rise of planetary health concept amidst this pandemic time could potentially
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Multilateralism, Conservation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia

58. Domestic Coal: A Hindrance to Renewable Energy Development?

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Low carbon transition is an important climate change mitigation measure. It entails a switch from fossil fuels to renewable sources. The presence of cost-competitive domestic coal in coal-producing countries like Indonesia is often cited as a major stumbling block to renewable energy development. This article aims to probe the cheap domestic coal argument. It does so by examining the changing share of renewable energy sources in electricity production over a certain timeframe. The study finds mixed observations across important coal-producing countries. It thus argues that there is a need to go beyond the low-cost domestic coal axiom and examine deeper underlying factors that support or hinder renewable energy development in coal-producing countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Coal
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

59. How to Design a Co-benefit Framework Between Air Quality Improvement and Climate Policy: The Case of South Korea

Author:: Tae Yong Jung
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: The South Korea case study indicates the co-benefits of air quality and climate change policy, by designing relevant legal and institutional frameworks in a more comprehensive and holistic way.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology, Law, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

60. Adapting to Climate Change in Southwestern Bangladesh: Need for Transformational Measures?

Author:: Shababa Haque, M. Feisal Rahman, and Saleemul Huq
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: While climate change continues to threaten all nations, the full severity of its impacts is yet to be understood. A range of root factors including geographic location, socioeconomic conditions, and political landscape will determine the particular risks and hazards faced by different countries and communities. The southwestern coast of Bangladesh, for example, is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Salinity increases in the region continue to threaten local livelihoods and may render traditional adaptation strategies unsustainable in the long run. This article first discusses how increasing salinity affects existing adaptation strategies in coastal Bangladesh. It then argues that adaptation approaches without consideration for long-term impacts or system-wide change will ultimately be insufficient.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Bangladesh, South Asia, and Asia

61. Transforming the power sector in developing countries: Geopolitics, poverty, and climate change in Bangladesh

Author:: Robert F. Ichford
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Governments across South Asia face many challenges as they seek to improve the lives of the more than 1.8 billion people that live in the region. Increasing geopolitical competition—especially between and among China, Russia, and the United States—is one factor that is affecting progress. This “great power competition,” including over the South China Sea, is intertwined with regional rivalries (e.g., India and Pakistan, India and China, and the United States and Iran) and has important economic, military, technological, and environmental consequences. Energy is a key strategic sector in this competition as China pursues its expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure and trade vision, Russia uses arms sales and nuclear energy to expand its regional presence, and the United States confronts Iran and gears up its free and open Indo-Pacific Strategy and Asia EDGE (Enhancing Development and Growth through Energy) initiative. This issue brief considers the transformation of the electricity sector in Bangladesh. It is the fourth country analysis in the Atlantic Council’s “Transforming the Power Sector in Developing Countries” series. This issue brief applies to Bangladesh the analytical framework developed in the first report in the series, which presents general challenges and strategic priorities for developing countries in the context of their implementation of electric power policies and reforms following the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Governance, Geopolitics, Gas, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, and Transition
Political Geography:: Bangladesh, South Asia, and Asia

62. Eyes wide open: Managing the Australia-China Antarctic relationship

Author:: Anthony Bergin and Tony Press
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Given recent broader tensions in the China–Australia relationship, China’s global ambitions, lack of progress on key Antarctic policy initiatives and the potential for significant geopolitical consequences for the future of Antarctica and for Australia’s strategic interests, it’s important that Australian policymakers reconsider our long-term Antarctic policy settings. The report found no clear evidence that China is violating the Antarctic Treaty. But it argues we should apply a more sharply focused assessment of the costs and benefits of cooperation, given China’s more assertive international posture and increasing interests in Antarctica. The recommendations in the report are designed to maximise the value and mitigate the downside risks of China engagement for our Antarctic and broader national interests. Overall, we should adopt a more transactional approach in our Antarctic engagement with China, making it clear what we require from cooperation and what we expect from China. Given the track record Beijing has in moving rapidly on a broad front, as it’s done in the South China Sea, we need to be prepared to respond to a rapid increase in the speed and scale of China’s actions in Antarctica.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, National Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Antarctica

63. Evaluating the impact of fossil fuel vehicles exit on the oil demand in China

Author:: Ziru Feng, Tian Cai, Kangli Xiang, Chenxi Xiang, and Lei Hou
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Vehicle ownership is one of the most important factors affecting fuel demand. Based on the forecast of China's vehicle ownership, this paper estimates China’s fuel demand in 2035 and explores the impact of new energy vehicles under the scenarios of slow, medium, and rapid substitution. The main contribution of this paper is making a more detailed estimation on the main parameters such as the saturation level and growth rate of the vehicle ownership by taking into account the heterogeneity of provinces when using the Gompertz model to forecast the future vehicle ownership. On that basis, the fuel demand of each province in 2035 is calculated. The results show that: ①The vehicle ownership rate of each province conforms to the S-shape trend with the growth of real GDP per capita. At present, most provinces are at a stage of accelerating growth. However, the time for the vehicle ownership rate of each province to reach the inflection point is quite different. ②Without considering the replacement of new energy vehicles, China's auto fuel demand is expected to be 746.69 million tonnes (Mt) in 2035. Guangdong, Henan, and Shandong are the top three provinces in fuel demand due to the economic and demographic factors, with the expected fuel demand of 76.76, 64.91 and 63.95Mt respectively. ③Considering the replacement of new energy vehicles, China’s fuel demand in 2035 will be 653, 615 and 578 Mt respectively under the scenarios of slow, medium and fast substitution. Even under the scenario of slow substitution, the reduction in fuel demand will be 94 Mt, accounting for 26.3% of China's net oil imports in 2016. Therefore, the withdrawal of fuel vehicles will greatly reduce the oil demand and the dependence on foreign oil of China. Faced with the dual pressure of environmental crisis and energy crisis, the forecast results of this study provide practical reference for policy makers to rationally design the future fuel vehicle exit plan and solve related environmental issues.
Topic:: Climate Change, Oil, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

64. Sustainable Energy through Green Bonds in India

Author:: Olaf Weber and Vasundhara Saravade
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Emerging economies, such as India, will need significant international investment in climate action in order to transition toward a future that is low-carbon and climate-resilient. India needs fossil fuels at an affordable price and needs to protect itself against price fluctuations. It can meet these needs by investing in Canadian oil companies, given the country’s political stability and rule of law. As an emerging economy, India could attract greater foreign direct investment into its economy through green bonds, a climate finance debt instrument that addresses environmental and climate-related challenges. Not only are green bond issuances linearly increasing over the years, but they also seem to be driven by institutional pressure, provided in part by the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s regulation, as well as by the informal advocacy efforts of market stakeholders. These findings are consistent with institutional theory and contribute to it by introducing the regulatory perspective of the green bond market.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: India and Asia

65. Three Ways to Explore the BRICS (Possible) Impact on the Future Global Order

Author:: Francesco Petrone
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: In a moment of great global uncertainty, the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are increasing their standing worldwide. Despite several areas that still undermine their credibility on the world stage and which make them appear to seem irrelevant as a group in the view of some scholars, we try to analyze and evaluate if they are really accountable as a group and what impact they could have on global governance and, in general, on the global order. We depart from previous research accomplishments and, following certain classical theories of International Relations such as those of Critical and Dependence, we consider three aspects of the BRICS growth that could influence the current international framework: 1) the emergence of institutions outside the Bretton Woods system; 2) an interest in improving their “soft power” (for example, climate change may play a decisive role here); 3) the growth of their presence in different parts of the world which have so far experienced a subordinated or marginal role. The paper considers both the limitations of and the potential for BRICS countries in the reshaping of the international framework. Moreover, we provide some interpretations to the current situation, especially in light of the prospective impact that COVID-19 may have on these three fields.
Topic:: Climate Change, Emerging Markets, Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, India, Asia, Brazil, South America, and South African

66. Bridging the Gap: Progress and Prospects for Accelerating South Korea's Move Towards a Carbon Neutral Scenario

Author:: Francesca Frassineti and Francesco Sassi
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The Moon administration in South Korea has implemented rapid changes to accelerate the decarbonization of the energy sector. While seeking to embrace renewables, Seoul has been relying on the bridging capacity of natural gas—of which it is the world’s third largest importer. In this context, President Moon is also confronted with public discontent over weak emissions goals and inadequate policies to curb the negative effects of climate change. Besides, the socio-economic fallout from the pandemic could hinder the enforcement of environmental measures and loosen restrictions for the sake of an immediate recovery. As Seoul attempts to secure more environmentally-friendly and economically sustainable energy sources, this paper examines the advances and major drawbacks of this policy agenda. By shedding light on the dynamics within the gas sector, the analysis also assesses the viability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as the pillar of this pro-environmental policy shift, including the potential of some LNG-related projects. The paper finds the feasibility of the current goals is challenged by the realities of energy supply stabilization, particularly due to the simultaneous phaseout of coal and nuclear power and the persistent capacity obstacles for renewables to fill this gap. In light of this, the paper advocates for integrated policy measures aimed at improving consistency in implementing national energy policy in tandem with climate change mitigation efforts.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Gas, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

67. Managing US-China Rivalry in the Arctic: Small states can be players in great power competition

Author:: Luke Patey
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Many fear that strategic competition between the US and China threatens longstanding regional cooperation and stability in the Arctic. But if they recognise their own political and economic significance and work collectively, the Nordic states and Canada can still play an instrumental role in steering the region’s future away from confrontation. Recommendations: Recognise how US–China strategic competition represents a false binary for policy choices in the Arctic. Understand how economic connectivity provides room for manoeuvre against big power pressure. Encourage participation of non-Arctic states with similar economic and political norms on natural resource and infrastructure development.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Oil, Power Politics, Gas, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

68. U.S. and China Climate Goals: Scenarios for 2030 and Mid-Century

Author:: Asia Society Policy Institute and Climate Analytics
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced new goals for China to reach carbon neutrality before 2060, as well as to strengthen its existing 2030 commitments under the Paris Agreement. With these announcements, China has signaled a move to join the European Union—as well as the United States under a Biden administration—in leading long-term climate action among the big emitters. Our analysis demonstrates that if China’s new long-term goal covers all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and not just carbon dioxide (CO₂), this could bring the country within reach of the emissions reductions required by mid-century for its actions to be in line with the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of limiting average global temperature increases to 1.5°C. However, if President Xi’s announcement is only meant to cover CO₂, then China would need to achieve carbon neutrality around 2050 for this to be compatible with the Paris Agreement.1 Either way, China’s short-term actions will also need to be quickly brought into line with its new long-term trajectory. This includes doing more than simply peaking CO₂ emissions before 2030 as President Xi foreshadowed. Instead, our analysis demonstrates that China would need to peak its emissions by 2025 and rapidly reduce these thereafter to be compatible with the Paris Agreement. This also implies a need for significant adjustments to the other quantifiable targets identified in China’s existing Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement and the ramping up of action to achieve these. Reducing coal-fired power generation quickly and phasing it out entirely by 2040 would be an important step toward achieving this early peak and rapid reductions. Under the Trump administration, the United States has reneged on past climate action promises and rolled back existing policies resulting in an increase in emissions compared with the Obama administration. As a result, this report highlights that even under a Biden administration, the United States is likely to miss its previous 2025 target under the Paris Agreement. However, a Biden administration means that the United States now has the potential to reverse the Trump administration’s rollbacks and make a significant contribution to closing the Paris Agreement’s ambition gap in a new 2030 NDC. Indeed, by taking the initiative to reboot U.S. action in line with the Energy and Climate Package touted by President-elect Biden during his campaign, including its goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, U.S. emissions could be reduced substantially by 2030.2 For example, our analysis indicates that if the Biden campaign’s policies were to be fully implemented with the support of Congress (see below), and continue to be supported by strong subnational action, they could bridge more than half of the U.S. share of the global ambition gap by 2030 through reducing emissions by up to 38%–54% below 2005 levels (GHGs, including land use, land-use change and forestry)3. This would also reduce estimates for average global temperature increases in 2100 by 0.1°C, on top of the 0.2°C–0.3°C reduction achieved by China’s recent announcement. As this report shows, President-elect Biden’s plan to decarbonize the U.S. electricity system by 2035 would represent by far the biggest contribution to this effort and is in line with the Paris Agreement temperature goal. It would result in savings of ~1,350 MtCO₂ out of a total abatement potential of ~1,810 MtCO₂e [1,630–2,100] in 2030 across his Energy and Climate Package. However, this report also estimates that potentially only half of this potential could still be achieved through Executive Authority in the event of Congress not supporting action, although this estimate carries a large degree of uncertainty. We also outline how additional emissions reductions could come from action in other areas, including freight transport and industry—with the electrification of end-use sectors and green hydrogen important opportunities to achieve this. If the United States and China fully implement these ambitious goals and are able to achieve net-zero GHG emissions around mid-century, it would be a monumental step forward toward bringing the Paris Agreement goals within reach. It would also mean that for the first time more than 60% of the world’s emissions are in countries with a clear pathway to decarbonize their economies. However, achieving the goals will require bold action in all sectors of the economy, with an early coal phaseout being paramount for both countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, Paris Agreement, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

69. China’s Response to Climate Change: A Study in Contrasts and a Policy at a Crossroads

Author:: David B. Sandalow
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: China is the world’s leading emitter of heat-trapping gases, by far. In 2019, Chinese emissions were greater than emissions from the United States, the European Union, and Japan combined. There is no solution to climate change without China. China’s response to climate change is a study in contrasts. China leads the world in solar power, wind power, and electric vehicle deployment, but also in coal consumption. The Chinese government has adopted some of the world’s most ambitious energy efficiency and forest conservation policies, but is financing a significant expansion of coal-fired power plant capacity at home and abroad. China’s leaders are strongly committed to the Paris Agreement, but appear to attach less priority to climate change than in years past. This Issue Paper explores these contrasts. It does so at an important time in Chinese climate change policy. During the next 18 months, the Chinese government will spend heavily on economic stimulus measures, release its 14th Five-Year Plan (for 2021–2025), and develop short- and long-term climate action plans (known as its “updated nationally-determined contributions” and “mid-century strategy” in the terminology of the global U.N. climate process). Decisions by the Chinese government will reverberate globally, including in the United States. A Biden administration’s ambition in addressing climate change would be reinforced by ambition in China. This Issue Paper provides an up-to-date snapshot of China’s climate policies, drawing on data from 2019 and the beginning of 2020 (during the height of the COVID-19 economic lockdown), as well as recent remarks by Chinese leaders. It starts by examining Chinese emissions of heat-trapping gases. It then discusses China’s principal climate policies, explaining the main tools the Chinese government uses to address climate change and related topics. The Issue Paper concludes with a discussion of processes that will shape Chinese climate change policy in the years ahead.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Economy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

70. Water Security and Disaster Management in Asia

Author:: Farwa Aamer
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: On March 2-4, the EastWest Institute (EWI) and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS), in concert with the Institute of National Security Studies Sri Lanka (INSSSL) and Consortium of South Asian Think Tanks (COSATT), convened a high-level dialogue entitled: “Water Security and Disaster Management in Asia” in Colombo, Sri Lanka. The dialogue, second in the project series, brought together experts from both the public and private sectors in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives to jointly analyze threats to water security in Asia in the face of worsening hydro-meteorological disasters due to climate change. The two-day dialogue consisted of six panel discussions on varied topics related to the politicization of water security, including the economic vulnerabilities of the water crisis and stakeholder engagement, among others.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Water, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:: Asia

71. COVID-19 Pandemic’s Impacts on China’s Energy Sector: A Preliminary Analysis

Author:: Kevin Tu
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is inflicting high human costs in China and around the world. The stringent quarantine measures imposed by the Chinese government have severely affected the country’s economic activity, with profound energy and climate implications
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

72. Is China Still a Developing Country? And Why It Matters for Energy and Climate

Author:: Philippe Benoit and Kevin Tu
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: China’s dramatic economic growth in the 21st century has made it not only the second largest economy in the world but also a powerhouse in the global energy system. Now, as the top energy consumer and the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, China is being closely watched and judged as its impact on energy markets and climate grows more profound. Looking forward, many issues are expected to shape the evolution of China’s energy sector, not least of which is its development status. While China’s economic might makes it a superpower alongside the United States, it still faces many of the major challenges of a typical developing country, such as widespread energy poverty, including 400 million people without access to clean cooking, significant air pollution, and dependence on increasing energy use to fuel future economic growth. Its modest income per capita qualifies it as a middle-income developing country. Evaluating China’s development status is not just an academic exercise. How China views itself and its challenges and how the international community classifies it carry real-world consequences that can significantly impact how the country manages its energy needs going forward, what fuels it uses, how it interacts with energy and other partners, and the level of its contributions and commitment to climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts worldwide. Understanding the nature and implications of China’s development situation can help in designing energy policies and fostering an international framework that better promote sustainable growth both within the country and globally. This paper examines how the usual criteria employed by international organizations to determine a country’s development standing have become increasingly difficult to apply to China, given the dramatic changes it has undergone over the past several decades, notably from an energy perspective. The paper finds that China combines significant characteristics of both developing and developed countries and examines the energy and environmental implications of this hybrid status.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

73. Green Stimulus Proposals in the United States and China

Author:: David B. Sandalow and Xu Qinhua
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On June 14, 2020 New York time and June 15, 2020 Beijing time, the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and Center for International Energy and Environment Strategy Studies at Renmin University convened a joint Zoom workshop on green stimulus programs in the US and China. The workshop offered a chance for scholars from the two universities to explore the recent economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, stimulus measures adopted to date and green stimulus proposals in both countries. Participants also discussed other measures to promote clean energy and low-carbon development in the US and China.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Green Technology, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

74. How the US and China Could Renew Cooperation on Climate Change

Author:: Aimee Barnes, Fan Dai, and Angela Luh
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Averting global climate catastrophe depends in large part on progress by the world’s two greatest powers and emitters: the United States and China. However, relations between these two countries—particularly on climate action—have deteriorated over the past four years. With a new presidential administration set to enter the White House in January 2021, there is an opportunity for the US and China to build trust and cooperation on climate change in a way that supports a cooperative and dynamic bilateral relationship more broadly. This commentary takes a close look at the Biden-Harris presidential platform with respect to climate action and China, and assesses China’s domestic and international climate efforts, particularly with respect to the status of its 14th Five-Year Plan. Importantly, what emerges from this examination is a starting point for China and the US to improve their relationship through climate action and collaboration. China’s announcement that it would seek to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is an important step towards such cooperation.[1] The most promising potential areas for US-China cooperation fall into three broad categories: renewing a shared commitment to global climate governance under the Paris Agreement; building trust to enable renewed bilateral cooperation, such as on technology innovation and investments; and supporting subnational leaders' progress in both countries through platforms where they can productively convene. Recognizing that a climate-safe future is bound up in our mutuality, these two world powers can promote a new era of climate action and resiliency.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Environment, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

75. Integrating Climate Change into Development Cooperation – Korea's Experience

Author:: Jione Jung and Jihei Song
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Korea has reached milestones in development cooperation over the past two decades. At the same time, it has sought for various measures to better incorporate climate consideration in its cooperation activities. However, a number of challenges remain and further action is required in improving the system and practices to better integrate climate change into Korea’s development cooperation. We aim at providing an overview of Korea’s progress in integrating climate change into its development cooperation to share the experiences and to highlight some achievements. In doing so, we first review how other developed countries have promoted climate change integration. Through comparison with Germany, the United States, and Switzerland, we summarized several achievements made by Korea in the area of development cooperation. In addition, we identified areas for further improvement to better integrate climate change into development cooperation, as well as projections for the next phase of Korea’s development cooperation to begin in 2021.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

76. Prospects of a Hydrogen Economy with Chinese Characteristics

Author:: Kevin Tu
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: This study assesses the prospects of a hydrogen economy with Chinese characteristics. Against the backdrop of an escalating US-China trade war and the ongoing novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, key Chinese stakeholders become increasingly interested in moving the hydrogen economy agenda forward. During the first six months of 2020 alone, 37 policies in support of the hydrogen economy have been published by various level governments, including 7 by central government authorities, and 30 by local governments. Shandong alone issued 6 hydrogen supporting policies, followed with 5 by Guangdong. In sum, hydrogen economy development not only gains traction in China, but also is in great danger of overheating. The ambition in China is to expand hydrogen production and create new end-uses: in the transport segment (e.g. 1 million fuel cell electric vehicles – FCEVs – and 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations by 2030), but possibly also, in other hard-to-abate sectors such as steel and cement manufacturing or in the electricity storage segment (Power to X). Hydrogen production from low carbon electricity could bring many benefits, notably to address curtailments of renewable electricity from wind, solar and hydro. It could also be blended into the nation-wide gas grid especially for low-concentration hydrogen (e.g. 5-10%). Until recently, China’s interest in developing the hydrogen economy has not been primarily triggered by the decarbonization objective. Nevertheless, on September 22, 2020, Chinese president Xi Jinping announced that China aims to peak national carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Given the significant amount of carbon emissions reduction implied by the above announcement, hydrogen is now expected to play a much more important role to drastically decrease the country’s greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) over time. China’s very large hydrogen production from fossil fuels, mainly coal, would make it quite challenging to consider decarbonizing the current uses of hydrogen. What decisively drives the current interest into hydrogen is innovation and technological leadership on the one hand, which China can achieve through industrial clusters and economies of scale, and energy security on the other: reducing dependence on imported oil and gas, with rising importance of air pollution control- and decarbonization-related considerations. It remains to be seen whether China can avoid the shortcomings of its electric vehicles (EV) supporting policies as it aims to boost a hydrogen economy with Chinese characteristics. A simplified SWOT analysis presented in the report identifies the most important strength, weakness, opportunity and threat for hydrogen economy development in China: Strength - ability to significantly bring down unit manufacturing cost through industrial network clustering and economy of scale. Weakness – lag far behind advanced economies in key hydrogen-related technologies. Opportunity – enthusiasm on hydrogen economy by local governments against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic. Threat - looming danger of global supply chain decoupling caused by an escalating US-China trade war. In order to move the hydrogen economy agenda forward, a preliminary “to do list” for Chinese decision-makers in this field would include: A coordinated national mechanism should be established at the central government level to lay out principles for moving the hydrogen economy agenda forward in China. Comprehensive and transparent statistical reporting and accounting throughout the Chinese hydrogen value chain should be established. In the hydrogen production segment, renewable hydrogen should be prioritized for intensive Research and Development (R&D) and deployment in the near future, and greening China's existing hydrogen flow should be on the Chinese government's policy radar especially in the longer term. In the hydrogen storage and transport segment, national and local government should continuously direct subsidies towards hydrogen refueling stations, and also consider to encourage low concentration blending of hydrogen into China’s natural gas network. In the hydrogen consumption segment, China should selectively focus on R&D and deployment of advanced hydrogen end-use technologies notably for cement and steel, ideally coupled with expansion of the horizon of national energy planning framework. Opening up the Chinese market to better integrate technology innovations in advanced economies and manufacturing-related competitive advantages of the Chinese economy, aiming to create a win-win situation between China and the international community.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Decarbonization, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:: China and Asia

77. New Powers: How India’s Smart Cities are Governing and Transitioning to Low-carbon Energy

Author:: Ankit Bhardwaj, Federico De Lorenzo, and Marie-Hélène Zérah
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Despite the potential of cities to foster a low-carbon energy transition, the governance of energy in India broadly remains within the purview of central and state governments. However, the Smart Cities Mission, a new urban scheme launched in 2015, gives Indian cities new powers to govern energy, a surprising departure from previous urban and energy policies. We argue that this shift is significant and we therefore raise three questions: 1) what kind of energy projects are planned and what does it reveal about the cities’ vision towards energy? 2) does the Smart Cities Mission foster a low-carbon energy transition and if so, how is this transition envisaged? 3) and finally, what are the rationale and the drivers behind this apparent shift? To address these questions, we build on a database of projects and financing plans submitted by the first 60 cities selected in the Smart Cities Mission. We find that cities have earmarked an immense 13,161 INR crore (~1.4 billion GBP) for energy projects, with most funds dedicated to basic infrastructure, primarily focused on enhancing the grid and supply. Cities also proposed projects in solar energy, electric vehicles, waste to energy and LED lighting, indicating their appetite for low-carbon projects. While cities were given institutional space to prioritise certain technologies, their interventions were conditioned by centrally sources of financing which were limited to certain mandated technologies. A focus on technology, rather than planning, undermined the role of cities as strategic decision-makers. What emerges is a dual faced reading of the Smart Cities Mission, indicating the potential and pitfalls of contemporary decentralized energy governance in the Global South.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Social Policy, and Urban
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

78. 2019 Guide to Chinese Climate Policy

Author:: David Sandlow
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: In 2018, China was the world’s leading emitter of heat-trapping gases by a wide margin. Its policies for limiting emissions will have a significant impact on the global climate for decades to come. From a historical perspective, China’s status as the world’s leading emitter is relatively recent. During most of the 19th and 20th centuries, Chinese emissions were modest. Then, in the early part of this century, as the Chinese economy boomed, Chinese emissions began to skyrocket, overtaking those from the United States around 2006. China’s cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution are roughly half those from the United States. (Carbon dioxide, the leading heat-trapping gas, stays in the atmosphere for many years once emitted.) China’s leaders have declared that the impacts of climate change “pose a huge challenge to the survival and development of the human race” and that China is “one of the most vulnerable countries to the adverse impacts of climate change.”[11] The Chinese government has adopted short- and medium-term goals for limiting emissions of heat-trapping gases and a wide-ranging set of policies that contribute to meeting those goals. Those policies are shaped in part by other objectives, including promoting economic growth, cutting local air pollution and developing strategic industries. This Guide examines Chinese climate change policies. It starts with a review of Chinese emissions. It then explores the impacts of climate change in China and provides a short history of the country’s climate policies. The bulk of the Guide discusses China’s principal climate policies, explaining the policy tools the Chinese government uses to address climate change and related topics. Appendices provide background on institutions that shape climate policy in China. What are “climate policies”? Monetary and fiscal policies affect emissions and could therefore qualify, as could policies on many other topics. This Guide does not catalog all policies that could affect emissions or the climate, but instead focuses on policies most directly related to climate change, including those on energy, transportation, urbanization, forestry, climate adaptation and climate diplomacy. In choosing policies to focus on, I am guided in part by international convention and in part by governments’ extensive reporting on this topic. The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted by more than 160 nations to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change show a broad international consensus that policies on energy, transportation, urbanization and forestry, among others, are considered “climate policies.” The Chinese government’s official documents on climate change show the same.[12] Several official documents are important resources for anyone interested in China’s climate policies. Every year the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) publishes a report on China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change.[13] These reports provide detailed information on a range of topics. Other key sources for understanding China’s climate policies include: China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in June 2015;[14] Work Plan for Controlling Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the 13th Five-Year Plan, issued by the State Council in October 2016;[15] China’s First Biennial Update Report on Climate Change, submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2016;[16] China’s Second Biennial Update Report on Climate Change, submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2018;[17] and China’s Third National Communication on Climate Change, submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2018[18] Several themes run through these documents, including strong commitments to low-carbon development, cutting coal use, scaling up clean energy sources, promoting sustainable urbanization and participating actively in climate diplomacy. Implementation is fundamental to any policy. This is especially true in China, where policy implementation can be a considerable challenge. Key ministries may fail to coordinate. Resources for enforcement may be lacking. Policies designed to achieve different objectives may conflict. The priorities of provincial leaders may not align with policies from Beijing. For these reasons and more, stated policies—while important—are just part of the picture when it comes to understanding the Chinese response to climate change. The organization of this Guide reflects that. Most chapters start with a section of background facts. This background provides context and can help in forming judgments on the impacts of policies to date and potential impacts of policies in the years ahead. Where implementation has been especially challenging or successful, that is highlighted. This Guide can be read in parts or as a whole. Individual chapters are designed to stand alone and provide readers with information on discrete topics. The Guide as a whole is designed to provide an understanding of China’s response to climate change and the implications of that response for China and the world. The Guide can be accessed in three ways: by purchasing it as a book on Amazon.com by visiting the Guide to Chinese Climate Policy website at https://chineseclimatepolicy.energypolicy.columbia.edu/, and by downloading it for free from the website above or the website of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy—http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/ This is a “living document.” Many of the facts and policies it describes will change in the months and years ahead. As that happens, this Guide will be updated. New editions of the Guide will be released regularly.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: China and Asia

79. Direction of Energy Strategy for the Sustainable Development of China’s Economy — Clean Utilization of Coal

Author:: Bai Yunfeng, Yi Peng, Du Shaozhong, and Wang Ying
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pangoal Institution
Abstract:: China is at the stage of urbanization and industrialization. The Chinese economy, which is mainly based on a large consumption of energy and resources, is growing extensively with an increasing demand for energy. Resources are exhausted, and a series of environmental problems occur with the rapid development of the economy. At present, China has surpassed the United States as the country with the highest carbon dioxide emission. As the world’s second largest economy, China is under a considerable amount of pressure to save energy and reduce its carbon emission. The persistent and severe large-scale smog in the country deeply affects people’s daily lives. Coal is the main source of air pollution. The extensive development and utilization of coal has largely caused pressure on the ecological environment and has directly influenced the socioeconomic development of the country. China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. Coal accounts for 68% of China’s energy consumption structure. The characteristics of resource endowment and the current industrial structure of China indicate that the dominant role of coal in China’s energy structure will not change for a quite a long time. Therefore, clean and efficient methods of energy utilization should be adopted to promote the sustainable development of China’s economy. The clean utilization of coal will be the strategic choice and landing point of the sustainable development of China’s economy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Economy, Coal, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: China and Asia

80. China’s Quest for Blue Skies: The Astonishing Transformation of the Domestic Gas Market

Author:: Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: China’s gas industry has been moving into a new era. China’s natural gas demand has skyrocketed amid a state campaign that encourages coal-to-gas switching. In just two years, China added 75 billion cubic meters (bcm) to global gas demand, the equivalent of the UK gas market, the second largest European market. Despite steadily rising, Chinese gas production has not been able to cope with such a huge increase in demand and gas imports have also surged.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Gas, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

81. Designing High-seas Marine Protected Areas to Conserve Blue Carbon Ecosystems: A Climate-essential Development?

Author:: Cameron S. G. Jefferies
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The high seas are a critical biodiversity reservoir and carbon sink. Unfortunately, the oceans, generally, and the high seas, in particular, do not feature prominently in international climate mitigation or climate adaptation efforts. There are, however, signals that ocean conservation is poised to occupy a more significant role in international climate law and policy going forward. This paper argues that improved conservation and sustainable use of high-seas living marine resources are essential developments at the convergence of climate action and ocean governance that should manifest, at least in part, as climate-informed high-seas marine protected areas.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Water, Maritime, and Conservation
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Asia, South America, Australia, North America, and Global Focus

82. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Great Power Competition

Author:: Christopher C. Harmon, T. J. Linzy, Jack Vahram Kalpakian, Bruce I. Gudmundsson, Ryan Burke, Jahara "Franky" Matisek, Zsofia Budai, Kevin Johnston, Blagovest Tashev, Michael Purcell, David McLaughlin, Kashish Parpiani, Daniel De Wit, and Timothy Chess
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: In this issue of MCU Journal, the authors discuss various concepts of power and great power competition. For generations, scholars have debated changes in power and how that evolution could potentially impact the United States, its allies, and those hovering on the edge of greatness in whatever form that may take. The concept of power has taken on many meanings as the character of warfare has adapted to the time—hard power, soft power, sea power, airpower, space power, great power, combat power, etc. So how do we define such an abstract concept as power? The Department of Defense (DOD) defines combat power as “the total means of destructive and/or disruptive force which a military unit/formation can apply against the opponent at a given time.” Clearly, power must be projected; and for our purposes, that means an entity has the “ability . . . to apply all or some of its elements of national power—political, economic, informational, or military—to rapidly and effectively deploy and sustain forces in and from multiple dispersed locations to respond to crises, to contribute to deterrence, and to enhance regional stability.”
Topic:: Security, NATO, Climate Change, International Cooperation, Migration, History, Power Politics, Armed Forces, Navy, Populism, Grand Strategy, Alliance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Strategic Competition, Geography, Ottoman Empire, Information Technology, and Clash of Civilizations
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Sudan, India, Norway, Asia, France, North America, Egypt, Arctic, United States of America, and Antarctica

83. A Specter is Haunting the West (?): The BRICS and the Future of Global Governance

Author:: Francesco Petrone
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Western countries are living a period of fragmentation that is (probably) undermining their leadership in dealing with an accountable global governance. Regarding global governance, it has received some criticisms such as the one that identifies it with a theoretical and unclear definition of an illusory enlarged participation to global decision-making, but in practice an attempt to impose Western policies. Furthermore, emerging powers like the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) may undermine this dominance, and the very meaning of global governance itself, inaugurating initiatives that tend to promote their presence in Global South, the creation of parallel institutions, their soft power and the (apparent?) engagement in global issues, such as climate change. In this article, we first analyze the acquired weight of the BRICS, then we highlight the weaknesses of global gover
Topic:: Climate Change, Globalization, Governance, International Institutions, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

84. Global Energy in Transition: How the EU Should Navigate New Realities and Risks

Author:: Andreas Goldthau
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Global energy demand is shifting to Southeast Asia. This new trade flow is altering market power because it not only follows natural economic development, but also results from strategic trade and investment policies that promote national interests. In this context, the EU needs to account for the geo-economic side effects of the new European Green Deal.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, European Union, Risk, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia

85. Addressing China's Exported Emissions

Author:: Amy Namur
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Once known as the world's top carbon polluter, China has recently recommitted itself as a leader in sustainability and renewable energy. Moving to fill the gaps left by the United States at the Paris Climate Talks, China has ramped up its renewable energy commitments, including plans to cap its CO2 emissions, drastically increase forest stocks, and expand its non-fossil fuel market share to 20 percent, all by 2030. This move has been highly favorable for Chinese diplomatic relations with its Southeast and Pacific Island neighbors who have labeled climate change as a top priority. Domestically the extensive health impacts of air pollution in China has rallied public opinion against the pollution industry, making the move to green energy both a wide berth of support. While still the highest CO2 emitting country in the world, China has made significant investments in renewable energy development and currently leads the planet in renewable investments abroad. China’s domestic commitment to sustainability has been ambitious; however, meeting these goals has created one of the biggest energy paradoxes of the 21st century.
Topic:: Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

86. The Arctic Council and US domestic policymaking

Author:: Elana Wilson Rowe and Helge Blakkisrud
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: One widely recognized achievement of the Arctic Council and its various working groups has been the production of collectively generated assessments on Arctic problems. Assessment reports such as the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) provide an important baseline of shared knowledge for making collective circumpolar policy recommendations. But how does the knowledge produced through Arctic Council working groups figure into the policymaking of the Arctic states? This is an important question for understanding Arctic politics and the relationship between national decisionmaking and international relations more generally. Much of what the Arctic Council produces is in the form of recommendations, declarations of intent, and commitments to "best practices" in areas of shared interest and activity. While in recent years the Council has produced three binding agreements covering specific functional areas—search and rescue (2011), oil pollution preparedness and response (2013),and science cooperation (2017)—much ongoing Arctic collaborative work falls outside of these areas. This policy brief explores how science/policy outputs of and discussions at the Arctic Council fit into the Arctic political discourse of the USA, with an emphasis on key actors within the executive branch: the White House, the Department of the Interior, and the Environmental Protection Agency.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Domestic Policy, and Arctic Council
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Asia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

87. The Neoliberal Attack on Rural India

Author:: P. Sainath
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: This dossier features two stories on India’s agrarian crisis. The first story is about the harsh impact of the changing climate on top of an already battered rural economy in Andhra Pradesh, where farmers are growing for seed companies in the most adverse conditions. The second story takes us to Kerala, where we find the Kudumbashree women’s cooperative, which has resiliently resisted the devastation of the worst floods in the state in nearly a century.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Farming, and Agribusiness
Political Geography:: India and Asia

88. Integrating Urban Development and Climate Objectives: Insights from Coimbatore

Author:: Ankit Bhardwaj and Radhika Khosla
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Indian cities routinely make decisions on land use, housing, water, transport, economic growth and waste management that have implications for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Aligning these sectoral actions with climate goals involves understanding how infrastructural systems interact and how these choices address both development and climate objectives. City governments, as managers of these various infrastructure systems, can co-ordinate such decision-making. However, so far, this is largely ad hoc. We show how cities can use a ‘multiple objective’ approach to systematically examine, and make explicit, the linkages between local objectives, climate change mitigation and adaptation across their planning portfolio.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Water, Economic Growth, Urban, and Sanitation
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

89. Plugging In Energy Demand in Indian Residences

Author:: Radhika Khosla
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: India is poised at the edge of an energy transformation. This shift is shaped in large part by the country’s ongoing economic, social, and technological transitions. Indian cities will host an influx of 200 million more people by 2030. Most of these people will come from a low base of development, and will demand modern fuels, appliances, and vehicles for improved quality of life. Demographically, at least 10 million people are expected to enter the Indian job market annually for the next two decades (India’s Half-A-Billion Jobs Conundrum 2017). In addition, two-thirds of India’s buildings that will exist in 2030 remain to be built (McKinsey Global Institute 2010). Managing these transitions is a significant challenge in itself, further complicated by the need to address their immense energy and climate implications. This policy piece examines an important driver of India’s energy future—electricity demand in households—and argues for why a broader consideration of energy consumption is central to Indian energy and climate debates.
Topic:: Climate Change, Demographics, Development, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Electricity
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

90. Energy Access and Affordability Voluntary Action Plan for Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: Philippe Benoit
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Argentina, President of the G20, recently released the “Energy Access and Affordability Voluntary Action Plan for Latin America and the Caribbean”, prepared by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) & Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE). CGEP Scholar Philippe Benoit served as the lead author of the report (on assignment from the IDB). The report builds on the previous G20 reports prepared for Africa and Asia-Pacific. The LAC Region enjoys access levels that are relatively high compared to other developing zones, but it faces important challenges in connecting the “last mile”. The Region also faces repeated extreme weather events which present the special challenge of access recovery (a major issue for Central America and the Caribbean, as well as Puerto Rico). One of the report’s innovations is that it extends the access effort beyond electricity and clean cooking to residential heat. The report also focuses on the importance of improving affordability of energy for the poor, as well as for other households and businesses.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Recovery, and Electricity
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and Puerto Rico

91. Power of the River: Introducing the Global Dam Tracker (GDAT)

Author:: Johannes Urpelainen, Wolfram Schlenker, and Alice Tianbo Zhang
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Dams are a major source of electricity globally, with hydropower generating 16 percent of the world’s total electricity and 71 percent of all renewable electricity in 2016. Many developing countries possess great untapped hydropower potential. Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, is estimated to have tapped less than 8 percent of its hydropower potential. Proponents of dams praise them as a source of low-carbon electricity, estimated to reduce annual emissions by about 2.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. Dams also provide wide-ranging benefits in terms of flood control, irrigation, navigation, and job creation. But harnessing the power of the river comes with concentrated costs, from fragmenting the river system and destroying natural habitat to triggering ecological hazards and displacing millions of people. As the world is undergoing an energy system transformation toward renewable sources to combat climate change and meet emission reduction targets outlined in the Paris Agreement, understanding the costs and benefits of dam construction has important policy implications. In this project, the authors compiled a global geospatial database of dams, the GDAT, to enable rigorous research on the costs and benefits of dam construction. The project was motivated by the absence of a comprehensive, reliable, real-time, easy-to-use database on global dam construction. Such data could allow policymakers to make informed decisions on the use of hydroelectric power in the future, based on systematic evaluations of the costs and benefits of hydroelectric dams along the dimensions of energy access, climate change mitigation, water supply, ecological preservation, and population displacement. Below is a summary of findings: Globally, the authors identify 36,222 dams that are spatially concentrated along major river basins in Asia, North America, South America, and Europe. Compared to two widely used datasets, AQUASTAT and Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD), GDAT has not only 144 percent and 419 percent more dam observations, respectively, but also more comprehensive attribute information, such as completion year, geographic location, main purpose, and reservoir and generation capacity. Dams are used for a variety of purposes, with considerable heterogeneity across continents. Worldwide, dams are mainly used for irrigation and hydroelectricity, representing 34 percent and 25 percent of the data, respectively. There are notable differences in the distribution of dam completion year across continents. While most developed countries in North America, Europe, and Oceania have witnessed a decline in dam construction since the 1970s, developing countries in Africa, Asia, and South America are experiencing a continued increase in the number of dams currently planned or under construction. GDAT makes three important contributions: First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, no prior effort has been made to consolidate official records with existing datasets such as AQUASTAT, GRanD, and World Resources Institute (WRI). By collecting and compiling primary data from administrative sources and secondary data from existing databases, the authors have offerred the most comprehensive geo-referenced data on worldwide dam construction to date. Second, through extensive cross-checking and manual validation, the authors fill in important data gaps on key attributes and correct erroneous observations in previous datasets. Third, existing datasets are often static and not frequently updated. Efforts are underway to develop a framework for making the data collection and compilation process easily reproducible, so that it can be updated on a reasonable time interval to facilitate intertemporal analysis. Upon publication of academic research papers, the authors are planning to release the entire dataset and documentations to the public, free of charge.
Topic:: Climate Change, Water, Displacement, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Dams
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Asia, South America, and North America

92. Climate Change: Conflict and Cooperation (Full Issue)

Author:: Meagan Torello, Rafael Leal-Arcas, Caitlin Werrell, Francesco Femia, Carmel Davis, Ziad Al Achkar, Ang Zhao, Buddhika Jayamaha, Jahara "Franky" Matisek, William Reno, Molly Jahn, Therese Adam, Peter J. Schraeder, Juan Macias-Amoretti, and Karim Bejjit
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:: In the first issue of our 20th volume, the cooperative and conflictual nature of climate change in international relations is explored. Rafael Leal-Arcas analyzes the necessity of a symbiotic relationship between bottom-up and top-down negotiations to implement clean energy consumption. Following, Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia begin this issue's dialogue on climate change and security. Carmel Davis discusses the effects of climate change on Sub-Saharan Africa's ability to develop and subsequently mitigate conflict. Similarly, Ziad Al Achkar outlines the economic, environmental, and security threats in the Arctic as its ice continues to melt. Zhao Ang then discusses China's ability and incentives to pursuing a greener economy. Following, Buddikha Jayamaha, Jahara Matisek, William Reno, and Molly Jahn discuss the security and development of climate change implications in the Sahel region. The main portion of this issue proudly concludes with the Journal's interview with former Swiss Ambassador Therese Adam on climate change negotiations and the great potential for civil society engagement. Following the climate change portion of this issue, we feature a special sup-topic: Africa Rising. Here, Peter Schraeder discusses the effects of President Donald Trump's foreign policy in Africa. Juan Macías-Amoretti analyzes the role of Islam in Moroccan politics, while Karim Bejjit concludes with a discussion on Morocco's growing relationship with the AU.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Islam, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Europe, Asia, North Africa, Switzerland, Morocco, Sahel, and Global Focus

93. The Reality of Updating China’s Nationally-determined Contributions:Effects of Long-term Economic Growth and Global Carbon Emissions Budget

Author:: Ang Zhao
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:: In June 2015, prior to the COP21 talks in Paris, China committed to peak its carbon emissions around 2030. For many, China’s commitment was an aggressive move to combat climate change, demonstrating its leadership in the global climate engagement. Yet, more critical voices questioned whether China’s commitment adequately considered global average temperature increase target of 2 degrees Celsius within this century. As the upcoming COP24 talks in Katowice, Poland draw closer, participating countries delegations may focus on the main negotiation objective, an implementation plan of the Paris Agreement. However, in this conference there will be plenty of discussion on how big economies, like China, set Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) targets, not only according to their own economic and technological capacities but also based on the precondition of meeting the global carbon emission goal suggested by the Paris Agreement. The following piece will investigate economic factors behind China’s predicted carbon emissions (including GDP, urbanization, and energy consumption), as well as global predicated carbon emissions in 2030 and 2050 to discuss whether China can promise to peak much earlier and begin decreasing its total carbon emissions around 2025.
Topic:: Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Economic Growth, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

94. Resourcing Green Technologies through Smart Mineral Enterprise Development

Author:: Salem Ali, Perrine Toledano, Nicolas Maennling, Nathaniel Hoffman, and Lola Aganga
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Much has been written in recent years about the urgency to develop new technologies that meet ambitious targets for more efficient energy infrastructure with reduced reliance on fossil fuels. There has also been growing recognition that mineral scarcity can hamper the speed of key technologies being developed. The dominance of China as a global supplier of many technology minerals and the Chinese government’s ability to constrain supply has led to a focus on the international trade dimensions of the challenge. The United States, Japan, the European Union and South Korea have all been keenly focused on securing mineral supply for their domestic industries through a range of initiatives. These efforts have included the World Trade Organization dispute resolution mechanism; research investment in alternative and more widely available materials where possible; and considering strategic stockpiles of minerals from internal sources that harken back to Cold War era strategies for material security. In this report, we argue that a neglected area in addressing the mineral scarcity challenge is the private sector’s current trajectory for geological mineral exploration of key minerals and innovative initiatives on material efficiency and recycling where possible. We term this approach Smart Mineral Enterprise Development (SMED) which entails a partnership between public and private entities to consider pathways whereby public sector data sharing on geology can be coupled with research innovations in the private sector both upstream and downstream of mineral supply. Just as smart energy grids harness efficiencies in electricity supply and demand through a dynamic process of communication, SMED processes can do the same for key technological bottlenecks in mineral supply. We focus on cobalt to highlight the bottlenecks; identify alternative supply sources based on current exploration and recycling technologies; propose ways in which the international legal framework could be adapted to promote investments in critical minerals; and consider ways by which the public sector can assist the private sector in developing a SMED process that would bring forth more efficient and effective entrepreneurial activity to meet our green technology needs.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, European Union, Green Technology, and Electricity
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, Asia, and South Korea

95. Responses to Climate-related Security Risks: Regional Organizations in Asia and Africa

Author:: Florian Krampe, Roberta Scassa, and Giovanni Mitrotta
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The transnational character of climate-related security risks often goes beyond the capacity of national governments to respond adequately. As such, it creates challenges for and increases the relevance of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). It is, therefore, not only important to understand the climate-related security risks that regions are experiencing but also to analyse how regional IGOs are developing their capacities to deal with these risks. This SIPRI Insights presents a concise analysis of four regional IGOs—two in Asia and two in Africa. The main findings show that, in various ways, climate-related security risks have found their way into the IGOs’ policy frameworks and institutional discourse. Furthermore, it was found that both the regional security context and the regions’ vulnerability to climate change affect the framing of climate-related security risks.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, and Risk
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, Asia, West Africa, and Southeast Asia

96. Climate Change and Violent Conflict: Sparse Evidence from South Asia and South East Asia

Author:: Florian Krampe and Pernilla Nordqvist
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The impacts of climate change are increasingly viewed as global security risks, which will have far-reaching implications for both human and renewable natural systems. Most climate–conflict research has focused on East Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. This SIPRI Insights explores and summarizes the findings from a systematic literature review of climate–conflict research on South Asia and South East Asia. Although these regions have been greatly affected by both climate change and conflict, there have only been a small number of rigorous academic studies that focus on the climate–conflict relationship. While this constrains the ability to draw general conclusions, there is context-specific evidence that climate change can have an effect on the causes and dynamics of violent conflict in the region when: (a) it leads to a deterioration in people’s livelihoods; (b) it influences the tactical considerations of armed groups; (c) elites use it to exploit social vulnerabilities and resources; and (d) it displaces people and increases levels of migration. In acknowledging that these mechanisms are often interlinked and more noticeable in some climatic, conflict and socio-economic contexts than in others, the need for more research in both regions is clear.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Conflict, and Risk
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia

97. The Trump-led Trade War with China: Energy Dominance Self-destructed?

Author:: Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe and Jean-François Boittin
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Under particular US legal rationale, such as calling foreign imports a “national security threat”, President Donald Trump has started imposing tariffs and/or quotas and has launched national security investigations on a growing number of imported goods from US allies and others alike.In March and June 2018, the US imposed tariffs or quotas on steel and aluminium on all trading partners, but Australia. In July and August 2018, the US began imposing tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese industrial goods on the ground of unfair trade practices. As China has retaliated with tit-for-tat measures, President Trump has imposed tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods from 24 September 2018 onwards, and in an unprecedented escalation of his trade war with China, he has also threatened to impose tariffs on an additional $267 billion in Chinese goods. If eventually carried out, Trump’s latest threat could result in tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the US. China has retaliated and imposed tariffs on $60 billion in US goods, including a 10% duty on liquefied natural gas (LNG). For the time being, trade tensions have had a limited impact on the energy market. But the new round of US tariffs and retaliation measures by China suggest that this is going to change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Gas, Renewable Energy, and Coal
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

98. Xi Jinping’s Institutional Reforms: Environment over Energy?

Author:: Thibaud Voïta
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: During its two sessions (lianghui) in March 2018, the National People’s Congress (NPC) announced China’s most important institutional reforms in the last 30 years. These changes occurred right after Xi Jinping consolidated his power and at a time when stakeholders working in the energy field were expecting more clarity on policy orientations. Though the reforms are in line with those initiated since the 2000s, the energy sector is likely to be deeply affected by the new institutional setting, which reflects China’s energy policy path with a strong emphasis towards low-carbon technologies and a rise in importance of environmental issues, alongside Xi’s institutional modernization through greater centralization and control. Nevertheless, it is too early though to judge whether this will effectively impact the balance of power with the fossil fuel related institutions and policies. The day Environment became more important than energy The environment sector is at the core of the reforms, which probably reflects the will to put environmental protection ahead of energy issues. The latest reforms established a Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) which gathers climate and environment responsibilities, that used to be spread between a number of bodies. Unveiled in April, the MEE is now in charge of managing most environmental issues, and theoretically able to draft and empower regulations. In addition, it now represents China in international climate negotiations. In order to manage these new duties, MEE staff increased from 300 to 500.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Governance, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:: China and Asia

99. The Future of Nuclear Power in China

Author:: Mark Hibbs
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: China is on course to lead the world in the deployment of nuclear power technology by 2030. Should it succeed, China will assume global leadership in nuclear technology development, industrial capacity, and nuclear energy governance. The impacts will be strategic and broad, affecting nuclear safety, nuclear security, nonproliferation, energy production, international trade, and climate mitigation. Especially critical is whether China achieves an industrial-scale transition from current nuclear technologies to advanced systems led by fast neutron reactors that recycle large amounts of plutonium fuel.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Governance, Nuclear Power, Nonproliferation, and Industry
Political Geography:: China and Asia

100. China’s Carbon Market: Accelerating a Green Economy in China and Reducing Global Emissions

Author:: Yifei Zhang, Jonathan Harris, and Jim Li
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:: The National Carbon Emission Rights Trading Market (ETS) Construction Plan (Power Generation Industry) was released in Beijing on December 19 , 2017 by China’s government. As promised during COP23 held in Bonn, Germany in November 2017, this is a key step to fulfilling China’s commitment to the Paris Agreement. The performance of ETS pilot projects in seven provinces of China have been evaluated since October 2011. The supporting policies were also thoroughly analyzed at both local and central government levels. Analysis of the pilot projects shows that the national ETS just initiated in China will not only strengthen supply-side structural reform and carbon-saving patterns of economic growth, but it will also contribute to poverty alleviation by introducing ecosystem valuation into the market. This is a practical application of the “Two Mountain Theory” suggesting that the economic and ecological systems can work in harmony, as proposed by President Xi and emphasized in the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on development, poverty alleviation and environmental protection in October 2017. Policy suggestions in terms of economic characteristics, industrial development and regional differences were developed to improve the effects of ETS in China. Taking advantage of differences in the costs of reducing emissions and expanding the size of the trading market are key to success.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: China and Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS