Political Geography: Asia / Publication Year: within 5 Years

1. Military Implications of PLA Aircraft Incursions in Taiwan’s Airspace 2024

Author:: Cheng-kun Ma and K. Tristan Tang
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In 2024, the number of days and sorties involving Chinese military aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line reached a peak, but the total sorties of Chinese aircraft around Taiwan and the number of peak incursion periods were not significantly higher than in 2023. While the number of Chinese military aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s airspace has surged, the operational capacity of the PLA Eastern Theater Command Air Force is likely already at its maximum peacetime readiness level. The sharp increase in Chinese military aircraft incursions targeting Taiwan is not solely aimed at President Ching-te Lai but also reflects changes in the scope and intensity of the PLA’s training and exercises around Taiwan. Unless new airbases are constructed or logistical support capabilities are significantly improved within the PLA Eastern Theater Command, the number of sorties into Taiwan’s airspace is unlikely to increase substantially in 2025.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Air Force, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

2. Dreams Deferred in Xi’s New Year’s Speech

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Xi Jinping’s New Year’s speech hinted at weaknesses in the People’s Republic of China. The speech emphasized the many hardships that people are currently facing at home while acknowledging fears about a turbulent external environment. Xi did not mention “national rejuvenation” and he conceded that the “China dream” was far from being realized. Doubling down on the ideology of struggle, a hard work ethic, and enforcing nationalist sentiment as crucial factors for escaping the current malaise, Xi’s speech suggested a shortage of tangible solutions for the country’s problems.
Topic:: Politics, Ideology, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

3. China: From Systemic Rival to Systemic Threat

Author:: Andrew Small and Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: For the United States and Europe, dealing with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now a challenge of such wide-ranging nature that it will cut across almost the entire transatlantic agenda of the incoming Trump administration. From addressing Beijing’s role as the “decisive enabler” for Russia’s war of aggression to rethinking the way that US-EU trade and technology ties need to be organized, China policy no longer occupies a separate silo but conditions every element of the security and economic landscape. Under the Biden administration, Europe and the United States undertook an unprecedented effort not only to coordinate their approaches to the PRC itself, but also to advance on other fronts where the China challenge was the main motivating factor, such as EU-US efforts to negotiate agreements on steel, aluminum, and critical minerals. The two sides’ analysis has grown much closer, and in some areas, this translated into tangible results—whether conveying common red lines to Beijing on the delivery of lethal aid to Moscow and the use of force against Taiwan or tightening controls on advanced semiconductor equipment exports. Overall, however, progress still fell short of the high stakes. Some EU member states treated the Biden administration’s partner-friendly approach as a holiday from difficult strategic choices on China rather than an optimal window in which to make them. EU-level efforts to build more effective approaches on economic security, trade defense, and cyber security were often slow-rolled or undercut by major capitals. There were also areas in which the Biden administration allowed domestic political considerations to undermine efforts to build a common strategic economic approach among US partners—particularly the use of national security tools against US allies, whether the blocking of Nippon’s takeover of US Steel or the initial retention (and suspension rather than lifting) of Section 232 tariffs against the EU. While the two sides are certainly more closely aligned and better coordinated, moving in the right direction is no longer enough. If Europe and the United States are unable to achieve results in several critical areas in the next few years, it will come at a growing cost to their security and economic interests, as well as to the broader transatlantic relationship. Success, on the other hand, would put a new set of foundations under it. Three issues are likely to loom over the agenda for the incoming Trump administration: the threat of the “Second China Shock” to US and European industry; Beijing’s deepening coordination with Russia and other authoritarian states; and intensifying PRC pressure on Taiwan.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

4. Shipment of a Controlled Vacuum Furnace to North Korea via Multiple States: An HS Code Case Study

Author:: David Albright
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: In tracking trade data and trade flows, Harmonized System (HS) codes are routinely used to aid searches for dual-use commodities and to help guide the identification of dual-use items that require a license or greater scrutiny. A recurring concern is shipper falsification of HS codes to evade detection or payment of duties. An illustration of such falsifications is a case we learned about via government sources from around 2022 that involved North Korea and a dual-use vacuum furnace suitable for uranium melting that wound its way from Spain to North Korea, via Mexico, South Africa, and China. Such a furnace is typically controlled under the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) Part 2 list and is banned for export to North Korea under United Security Council resolutions. This type of furnace is a mainstay of a nuclear weapons program, particularly one that uses weapon-grade uranium as the nuclear explosive material, as North Korea is known to do. With North Korea expanding its uranium enrichment program and producing greater quantities of weapon-grade uranium, this new furnace would be especially important.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Trade, and Dual Use Items
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

5. New Information on Shenyang Machine Tool Company’s Illicit Sales to North Korea and Russia

Author:: David Albright and Spencer Faragasso
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: Several years ago, the Institute reported about the relatively large, multinational Chinese company Shenyang Machine Tools Company supplying sophisticated computer numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools, equipped with Western controlled software, to North Korea in violation of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions and a supplier country’s trade control laws that banned re-export of this software. New information details the disingenuous way in which the Chinese government investigated this case, indicating nonetheless inadvertently that North Korea received these machine tools, while also demonstrating China’s utter disregard for enforcing UNSC sanctions or its own or others’ export control laws. This case serves as another of the many cases highlighting China as a long-time irresponsible trading partner that responsible companies should avoid when sensitive dual-use goods are involved, lest they be complicit in outfitting North Korea’s, Iran’s, or Russia’s military programs. Today, responsible suppliers are inadvertently facilitating Russia’s prosecution of an illegal war against Ukraine. Given Shenyang Machine Tools Company’s recent exports of goods to Russia with Harmonized Shipments (HS) codes found on the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Common High Priority List (CHPL), this company should be considered for sanctions.
Topic:: Sanctions, Trade, Illegal Trade, and Shenyang Machine Tool Company
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and North Korea

6. China’s Digital Silk Road: Outlines and Implications for Europe

Author:: Maria
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The Digital Silk Road (DSR) is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that encompasses infrastructure projects, trade and financial agreements, and cultural and defence cooperation with over 140 countries worldwide. Bringing the digital component into the BRI seamlessly advanced Beijing’s ambition of taking a leadership position in the technology sector. The DSR not only speaks across regions but also goes beyond the technology infrastructure, which raises two critical concerns by giving China leverage to advance the digital authoritarian governance model and jeopardizing data privacy. To mitigate these risks and reduce reliance on China, the EU must find alternatives by collaborating with trusted partners and diversifying supply chains. First, the EU can expand its technological landscape and engage nations in the Global South and the Indo-Pacific. Second, it must develop and enforce regulatory mechanisms to prevent Chinese state agencies from misusing sensitive data.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Infrastructure, European Union, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Information Technology, and Digital Silk Road (DSR)
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

7. State Goals, Private Tools: Digital Sovereignty and Surveillance Along the Belt and Road

Author:: Che Chang, Lian Huang, and Athena Tong
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Beijing promotes digital sovereignty in its engagements with other countries but with the caveat that it can maintain access to partner countries’ digital systems. Leaked documents from cyber contracting firm iS00N indicate a focus on One Belt One Road partner countries, targeting critical systems, including telecoms, government ministries, and financial institutions. A new paradigm of using nominally private firms allows Beijing to put distance between its inclusive rhetoric of “win-win cooperation” while companies hack partner countries’ infrastructure at the direction of its security services.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Surveillance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:: China and Asia

8. The Shapeshifting Evolution of Chinese Technology Acquisition

Author:: Matthew Brazil
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Smuggling, a critical tool of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to acquire technology to enhance its defense industrial base, is reemerging in the wake of the US Government’s technology controls. Diversion—falsifying the end-user—is another common tactic that the Party has successfully used to acquire critical technology, including dual-use items that it would have been otherwise unable to obtain. Talent attraction is an underrated part of technology acquisition that the CCP has promoted in academia as well as in the corporate sector to help advance its technology ambitions. Foreign businesses have been willing to engage in technology transfer in return for potential access to the PRC market. This tradeoff frequently has not paid off for these firms.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Trade, Smuggling, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: China and Asia

9. The Power Vertical: Centralization in the PRC’s State Security System

Author:: Edward Schwarck
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Centralizing reforms to the Ministry of State Security probably constitute the most important development in China’s civilian intelligence system since its establishment in 1983. These reforms instituted “vertical leadership,” under which the MSS is empowered to control local bureaus’ personnel affairs, budgets, and oversight. Structural changes that began in 2016–2017 mean that local state security bureaus are no longer subject to the authority of local party committees, and so are freer to impose a security-first agenda on other government agencies, leading to a more oppressive political environment. The ministry is now better able to direct joint operations between bureaus, exploit pockets of regional expertise, and ensure that local activities serve the strategic intelligence and security requirements of the central government. The reforms are part of Xi Jinping’s broader efforts to ensure that the “party center has supreme authority over state security.” The state security system’s further empowerment suggests it is likely to remain a powerful and durable interest group in PRC politics beyond the Xi era.
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Centralization
Political Geography:: China and Asia

10. The Art of War: PRC Weaponizes Culture to Galvanize the People

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The Party sees culture as a tool to achieve its strategic ambitions both inside and outside the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Speeches, articles, and conferences portray it as central to achieving national rejuvenation. Party discourse on culture is shot through with militaristic terminology. Not just echoing Mao-era rhetoric, this reflects Beijing’s desire to “engineer souls” in pursuit of a strong nation. Artists, culture workers, and academics are perceived as pawns in a project to present the PRC globally as peaceful and prosperous, but the Party is aware of the deficiencies of its soft power.
Topic:: Arts, Culture, Soft Power, Academia, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

11. Xi Jinping’s Quantitative Easing Unlikely to Save Economy

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In an apparent U-turn, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has initiated stimulus policies that have boosted the stock market and are attempting to jump-start key sectors and meet the annual GDP growth target of 5 percent. In the last week of September, the central bank announced a package worth at least 2 trillion Renminbi (RMB; $280 billion), cut the banks’ reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points, and hinted at further measures. The domestic and international response has been underwhelming, in part because the package leaves the economy even more overleveraged than before. President Xi Jinping’s attempts to enhance the PRC’s global stature, including through a recent ICBM test and by deepening support for Russia’s war in Ukraine and for other countries willing to denounce the United States and the West, will not help the domestic economic woes as they discourage foreign investment.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Economy, Economic Growth, Investment, and Quantitative Easing
Political Geography:: China and Asia

12. Understanding the PRC’s Selective Use of Military Hotlines

Author:: Augusto Leal Rinaldi
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to the present day. There is a recognition that hotlines offer tactical benefits, but they are not viewed as a solution to the broader challenges in US-PRC relations. The PRC is largely skeptical of military hotlines, believing that they lack utility and could potentially undermine its national security. Defense scholars fear that the existence of a mechanism to de-escalate crises could embolden adversaries to take more risks, and doubt that hotlines can help mitigate long-term mistrust in bilateral relations. Beijing also perceived some benefits of military hotlines. These include enhancing safety and crisis management, enabling the political signaling of intentions, and improving the PRC’s reputation as a responsible power, as well as allowing it to control narratives and influence other states’ actions.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, Crisis Management, and Deescalation
Political Geography:: China and Asia

13. Beijing’s Soft Power Push with African Nations

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has successfully used its hosting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation to burnish its soft power and its credentials to be seen as the leader of the Global South. Close political alignment on core issues, including African states affirming support for the PRC’s positions on Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and unification with Taiwan are indicative of the PRC’s diplomatic gains. Politics was central to the event, with the promotion of exchanges and cooperation announced between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and African political parties, between the PRC’s Supreme People’s Court and the Court of Justice of the African Union, and between the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and regional organizations, alongside numerous training programs in various domains. Africa joined a “community of common destiny,” which entails a rejection of the Western approach to modernization. The West in general and the United States explicitly were heavily criticized throughout the forum.The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has successfully used its hosting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation to burnish its soft power and its credentials to be seen as the leader of the Global South. Close political alignment on core issues, including African states affirming support for the PRC’s positions on Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and unification with Taiwan are indicative of the PRC’s diplomatic gains. Politics was central to the event, with the promotion of exchanges and cooperation announced between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and African political parties, between the PRC’s Supreme People’s Court and the Court of Justice of the African Union, and between the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and regional organizations, alongside numerous training programs in various domains. Africa joined a “community of common destiny,” which entails a rejection of the Western approach to modernization. The West in general and the United States explicitly were heavily criticized throughout the forum.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Global South, Soft Power, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

14. Kubernetes: A Dilemma in the Geopolitical Tech Race

Author:: Sunny Cheung
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: US-sanctioned Huawei has significant influence in the Cloud Native Computing Foundation and its open-source platform Kubernetes, which underpins US military platforms, including F-16 fighter jets and nuclear infrastructure. The use of open-source technologies in critical systems raises concerns. Despite US efforts to mitigate risks, Kubernetes remains tempting to exploit for attackers. Open source fosters global innovation, from which the United States benefits. But this same openness also strengthens US competitors. The United States should therefore develop a clear framework to understand and mitigate the challenges posed by open source.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Innovation, Strategic Competition, and Huawei
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

15. Kursk Incursion Draws Delayed Response From Beijing

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Official media in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has finally begun to comment on the Ukrainian operation in Russia’s Kursk oblast, which began on August 6. It gives Ukraine low odds of success, emphasizes Russia’s strength and successes elsewhere in the conflict, and has started amplifying Russian propaganda about US involvement and potential Ukrainian attacks on the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. For the two weeks after Ukrainian forces invaded Russia’s Kursk Oblast on August 6, PRC state media either ignored the developments or provided minimal reporting, mostly recycling statements from Russian officials and media. The PRC’s muted coverage follows a pattern of delayed responses to surprising events and volatile situations, also seen at the outbreak of the war and during Prigozhin’s mutiny in June 2023. This can be taken as evidence that authoritarian systems are not necessarily capable of responding quickly to developments, especially when decision making is highly centralized.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Propaganda, Russia-Ukraine War, and Incursion
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia

16. Economic and Technological Zones: Economic Strategy in the Tibet Autonomous Region

Author:: Devendra Kumar
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: New Economic and Technology Development Zones (ETDZs) in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) are focused on pockets of the Han population, which will exacerbate tensions within the region. The Tibetan economy is already largely under Han control (except for in the agriculture and livestock sectors), and Han people constitute the majority group in many of Tiber’s urban centers. The TAR government has set up the zones to import practices from elsewhere in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and shift the region’s economy away from traditional sectors and toward export-oriented industries, construction, and even high-tech manufacturing. The TAR’s external trade is currently limited to Nepal, due to ongoing border tensions with India. Meanwhile, infrastructural challenges hampering the development of the Sichuan-Tibet railway or national highways connecting the TAR with other provinces suggest that further integration with the rest of the PRC remains some way off. In a related policy, the PRC has developed border towns strategically located near land border ports that it has built along its borders with India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Infrastructure buildup on the border could also serve a dual-use purpose in the case of a conflict, as has been the case in India in recent years.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Trade, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Tibet

17. PRC Advances New International Order In Astana

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) sees the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an important part of a wider strategy to construct a new international order. Beijing projects soft power through promoting norms, discursive constructs, and policy preferences in the SCO which member states officially endorse. These include language about comprehensively reforming the UN and supporting all PRC efforts to achieve “national reunification” with Taiwan. Military exercises that take place via the SCO provide the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) unique opportunities to gain practical experience outside its borders and normalizes basing of Chinese forces in other countries through international treaties.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Military Affairs, Soft Power, and International Order
Political Geography:: China and Asia

18. PRC Transfer of Military and Dual-Use Technology: the Case of the International Conference on Defence Technology

Author:: Matthew Bruzzese
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The International Conference on Defence Technology (ICDT), held biannually since 2018, exemplifies an approach by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to leverage defense technology from Western researchers. The conference features participation from PRC defense entities and Western scientists, facilitating direct transfer of advanced defense technology insights to the People’s Liberation Army. The Military-Civil Fusion development strategy has increased the absorption of foreign S&T knowledge for military purposes. Research with any PRC institution operates under the premise that anything with potential military applications will be utilized for defense purposes. Despite increased awareness of PRC’s tech transfer efforts, Western researchers continue to attend PRC-hosted conferences with military affiliations, exposing them to risks of being probed for sensitive information and potential espionage activities.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Defense Industry, and Dual Use Infrastructure
Political Geography:: China and Asia

19. New Textbook Reveals Xi Jinping’s Doctrine of Han-centric Nation-Building

Author:: James Leibold
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Another cultural revolution is in full swing in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This is not the purported class revolution Mao advocated in the past, but rather a wave of Han cultural and racial nationalism. Xi’s new approach to ethnic minority policy repudiates the Party’s past promise to allow minority nationalities to exercise political and cultural autonomy, becoming “masters of their own house.” Following more than ten years of incremental change, a new textbook from scholar-officials articulates the discourse, ideology, and policies associated with a new Han-centric narrative of China’s past and future. In this conception, the sovereignties and homelands of the Tibetan, Uyghur, Mongol, and other indigenous minorities are erased and replaced with a seamless teleology of the Han colonial and racial becoming.
Topic:: Education, Culture, Political Parties, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:: China and Asia

20. Foreign Fixations at the Heart of Chinese-style Modernization

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: A new report from two high-end PRC think-tanks details the country’s path to modernization in anticipation of July’s Third Plenum but suggests that any shifts in policy direction will be muted. The report emphasizes the triumph of Chinese-style modernization over the Western model and provides substantial criticisms of the failures of the West. It also argues that the PRC’s model contains lessons for other developing countries. The report leverages Western individuals and institutions to buttress its arguments for the superiority of Chinese-style modernization, which suggests that the West is still perceived as (or can be instrumentalized as) a source of legitimacy by the PRC. The report asserts the core message that only Party-led Chinese-style modernization can bring about national rejuvenation, and that this will occur through an economic program that is focused on “seizing the commanding heights in a new round of global scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation.”
Topic:: Development, Modernization, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

21. Planned Obsolescence: The Strategic Support Force In Memoriam (2015-2024)

Author:: Joe McReynolds
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Strategic Support Force likely was designed principally as a transitional structure meant to provide a home for disparate space, cyber, and informatization forces until their force structure could be developed enough to stand as independent branches. The successor branches of the SSF, the new Space Force, Cyber Force, and Information Support Force, likely maintain the units, capabilities, and mission areas previously held under the SSF. These branches can be best understood as rough PLA equivalents to US functional combatant commands, non-geographically defined joint-force structures intended to support services and military theaters by providing critical capabilities and operations in strategic domains of warfare. The creation of the branches also has the benefit of bringing critical resources and capabilities under the direct oversight of the Central Military Commission. This design feature is likely motivated by a desire to have greater control and more closely shape broader PLA modernization. It is in part also a response to controversies and international incidents associated with the SSF’s current leadership.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Cybersecurity, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

22. Xi Signals Firm Strategy but Flexible Tactics at China’s Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference

Author:: Neil Thomas
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The readout from the Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference (CFAWC) at the end of December indicated an emerging strategy of countering US leadership by mobilizing the support of Global South countries while dividing the West on contentious global issues. Recent changes in official discourse and new language that now forms part Xi’s messaging to visiting politicians makes clear Beijing’s enhanced conviction of the need to actively shape and influence world events. The CFAWC meeting signaled a turn away from the more abrasive forms of “wolf warrior” diplomacy. Xi’s desired shift in rhetoric does not mean that PRC diplomats will be less assertive in communicating their preferences overseas.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Global South, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:: China and Asia

23. Foreign Intelligence Hackers and Their Place in the PRC Intelligence Community

Author:: Matthew Brazil
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Leaked files from iS00N reveal deep insights into the PRC’s intelligence operations, highlighting an intensified global security offensive as well as issues within the intelligence community. iS00N’s growth is tied to Xi Jinping’s aggressive policies and demonstrates the importance of private contractors in fulfilling the PRC’s increased intelligence and security needs. The leaks expose employee dissatisfaction and underscore iS00N’s critical role in intelligence gathering and job provision, reflecting the contractor’s complex relationship with the PRC government. The exposure raises questions about the role and regulation of hacking contractors in the PRC, potentially leading to investigations and reforms that could affect the PRC’s intelligence strategy and international relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Intelligence, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: China and Asia

24. National Defense Mobilization: Toward A Clear Division of Labor between the PLA and Civilian Bureaucracies

Author:: Yu-Ping Chang
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: As the result of the ongoing military reform, the military’s guiding and leadership role over civilian bureaucracies seems to be strengthened. Meanwhile, the responsibilities of the State Council and local governments on NDM have been substantiated, and the administrative work which the PLA used to undertake has been transferred to local governments. A clearer division of labor between the military and civilian bureaucracies allows the PLA to focus on the development of combat capabilities without being distracted by administrative work, while more attention and resources devoted to national defense projects by civilian bureaucracies are likely to improve NDM work. National defense mobilization is an area where the PLA and civilian bureaucracies need to cooperate closely during peacetime to allow an effective generation and mobilization of national resources during wartime. The national defense mobilization system (NDM system), composed of civilian bureaucracies and the PLA bureaucracies, used to be characterized by a bureaucratic structure in which the military sat above local governments and both guided and administered a significant portion of administrative work related to national defense development.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Reform, Bureaucracy, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

25. Implications of Article 23 Legislation on the Future of Hong Kong

Author:: Eric Y. H. Lai
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Hong Kong’s Article 23 legislation will integrate the PRC’s national security framework into Hong Kong’s legal system, impacting the city’s rule of law and foreign business interests. Broad and vague definitions of national security will create challenges for Hong Kong’s common law system. It will likely contribute to the erosion of legal certainty and judicial independence. Proposed offenses such as “theft of state secrets” and “espionage” are ambiguously defined, creating uncertainty. This may cause issues for foreign businesses collecting information for due diligence and will further chill freedom of expression in the city. The legislation aims to isolate Hong Kong further from the liberal democratic world, granting extensive powers to the government for political control and undermining public oversight and due process rights.
Topic:: National Security, Rule of Law, Legislation, and Due Process
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Hong Kong

26. Civil Society Defense Initiatives

Author:: Marco Ho Cheng-hui
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Civic groups are enhancing “social resilience” by forming self-training organizations focused on preparing for potential conflict impacts beyond just military engagement. These groups address a broad range of issues including civil defense, emergency rescue, disaster preparedness, cyberattack responses, and infrastructure maintenance. Civil society advocates for the use of civilian technologies in defense, such as drones and AI, reflecting a proactive stance on Taiwan’s security. Kuma Academy exemplifies practical action in civil defense education, offering courses and activities to thousands, alongside other groups focusing on specific preparedness aspects. Taiwan’s civil society is urging government and political parties to implement defense reforms, over concerns about the country’s level of defense in the face of threats from the PRC.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Civil Society, and Reform
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

27. PLA Personnel Shakeups And Their Implications

Author:: Ying Yu Lin
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Dong Jun’s appointment as Defense Minister and changes in the PLA Rocket Force leadership mark a strategic shift towards bolstering military diplomacy, particularly with Russia, and enhancing combat and technological readiness, reflecting Dong’s significant role in shaping future military strategy. The leadership overhaul within the PLA highlights a concerted effort to root out corruption, critical for maintaining the military’s operational integrity and effectiveness. This move is partly inspired by the need to avoid the operational pitfalls seen in the Russian military’s performance in Ukraine. The hiring of PLA officers from services outside the Rocket Force, as well as those with personal connections to Xi Jinping, indicates a desire to start afresh, while also suggesting the extent of corruption within PLARF. Analysts believe the ousting of officials like Li Shangfu will not necessarily directly weaken the PLA’s combat capabilities, given the defense minister’s primarily diplomatic role. However, it also suggests that Li, with his technical background, was perhaps not well-suited to his role. Nonetheless, it prompts speculation about future military diplomacy and technological focus.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Corruption, Military Affairs, Leadership, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

28. Japan’s Approach to the Global South

Author:: Tobias Harris
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, in a January 2023 speech in Washington, DC, stressed that if the G7 countries and their developed-world peers neglect the “Global South”, “we will find ourselves in the minority and unable to resolve mounting policy issues.” These remarks set the stage for a major theme of Japan’s G7 presidency that year, during which Tokyo continued to highlight the importance of more “humility” to strengthen relations between the group’s members and the “Global South”. The G7 leaders’ communiqué at their May 2023 Hiroshima summit did not refer explicitly to the Global South—the United States and other nations did not necessarily share Japan’s preference for the term, which risks treating as monolithic an enormously diverse array of countries—but the document stressed the importance of addressing the needs of middle- and low-income states, including a commitment to “continued efforts to scale up official development assistance (ODA)” and to adopting “innovative financing mechanisms”. This emphasis on outreach to the developing countries assumed greater urgency following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when they were often reluctant to support Western efforts to isolate and punish the Kremlin for its aggression. Japan’s approach to the “Global South” is not merely rhetorical. The Kishida government inherited a long-standing approach to developing nations, particularly those in Asia, that seeks to leverage Japanese ODA and public and private investment. The approach has two goals: to promote growth and strengthen economic ties with developing countries, and to foster trust and political credibility that can be translated into influence. The strategy is shaped by Japan’s national interests but seeks to address developing countries’ economic needs without drawing them into an anti-Beijing bloc. The approach has worked well in Southeast Asia, where, thanks to decades of efforts by successive governments, Japan is viewed particularly favorably. Tokyo now appears increasingly determined to pursue the same strategy in other parts of the “Global South”, including South Asia, the Pacific island states, and, to a lesser extent, Africa and Latin America. As Japan’s G7 peers seek to undertake their own initiatives to improve relations with the “Global South”, the key principles and successes of the country’s policies are worth examining.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Democracy, Business, Global South, and Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

29. Next-Generation Perspectives on Taiwan: Insights from the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program

Author:: Bonnie S. Glaser, Joshua Stone, Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, and Francesca Ghiretti
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The papers in this compendium were written by 11 members of the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) delegation: Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, Francesca Ghiretti, Heather Hwalek, Leland Lazarus, Lauren Racusin, Friso Stevens, Joshua Stone, Brian Volsky, Theresa Winter, Adrienne Wu. Transatlantic attention to Taiwan has surged in recent years for several reasons. First, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to increased concern in the United States and Europe that Beijing’s growing military capabilities and declining confidence in its ability to achieve peaceful reunification will soon lead the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attempt a takeover of Taiwan by force. The cost of such a war would carry a price tag of around $10 trillion, equal to about 10% of global GDP, according to Bloomberg Economics, far higher than the economic impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. The devastating impact of a Taiwan Strait conflict has provided a wake-up call for leaders in Europe who now echo the Biden administration’s warnings to PRC leader Xi Jinping to refrain from using violence to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, Taiwan is now a regular agenda item in the US-EU Consultations on the Indo-Pacific and the US-EU Dialogue on China. Second, intensifying US-China strategic competition has increasingly focused on technology with chips at the center. Taiwan produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the most advanced ones. A single company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), manufactures most of those chips. Recognition of Taiwan’s dominant role in the semiconductor supply chain has provided another reason to bolster deterrence. It has also sparked interest in “friendshoring” and “onshoring” semiconductor manufacturing. TSMC plans to start production at its first fab in Arizona in 2025 and will break ground on another in Dresden at the end of 2024 with an estimated completion date of 2027. Recognizing the rising geopolitical risks and their own strategic dependencies, the United States and the EU have made building resilient supply chains a priority, especially in semiconductors. In its 2021 Indo-Pacific Strategy, Brussels explicitly committed the EU to engaging with Taiwan in creating resilient supply chains. Third, rising concern in the United States and Europe about election interference and disinformation have sparked interest in learning from Taiwan’s experience in combatting such threats. In the run-up to the January 13, 2024, presidential and legislative elections, PRC attempts to interfere in Taiwan’s politics surged to unprecedented levels through economic coercion, direct political meddling, displays of military force, and manipulation of social media. As the United States and many European countries prepare for their own national elections this year, they are engaging with experts from Taiwan to better understand PRC tactics and the tools that Taiwan successfully employed to counter PRC interference. Fourth, the United States and Europe increasingly recognize that Taiwan’s vibrant and successful democracy is under threat from an authoritarian regime. Taiwan has received high marks for protecting political rights and holding free and fair elections. Taiwan’s democratic achievements are even more impressive when set against the backdrop of a deterioration in freedom worldwide. Like other industrialized democracies, Taiwan faces a multitude of challenges that are especially difficult to address in the face of PRC efforts that prevent Taiwan’s government and its people from interacting with the world. Taiwan’s exclusion from international organizations also hampers the world’s ability to develop effective solutions to myriad problems. The Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) was launched in 2017 to encourage young professionals from the United States to include Taiwan in their research and help Taipei expand its global networks. In 2022, TUPP was expanded to include young professionals from Europe in support of GMF’s mission of promoting transatlantic cooperation. TUPP enables future leaders to acquire a deeper understanding of Taiwan and its relations with the United States through meetings with officials and experts in Washington, DC, followed by a visit to Taiwan to gain first-hand exposure to its politics, culture, and history. Experiencing Taiwan influences how these future leaders approach their work and their writing. It impacts their worldview by imbuing them with an appreciation for Taiwan’s history and commitment to the principles of democracy and human rights that undergird the existing international order. It also reinforces the importance of maintaining robust bilateral relations and strengthening international support for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The 2024 TUPP cohort traveled to Taiwan in February for an intense week of meetings and activities. Each participant gained insights into Taiwan and its role in their respective fields. This year’s delegation comprised five Americans and five Europeans. Over time, TUPP seeks to create a body of global experts with firsthand knowledge of Taiwan who support sustaining and expanding its international ties. I am grateful to the Henry Luce Foundation, the Global Taiwan Institute, and the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy for their support of this goal. The contributions here, written by the entire 2024 TUPP delegation, underscore the importance of deeper study and understanding of Taiwan. I sincerely hope that they stimulate continued transatlantic and global interest in Taiwan and its future.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, Poland, Germany, Latin America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

30. Is the G7 still relevant?

Author:: Raffaele Trombetta
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In the first of our new Expert Analysis series, former Italian Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Raffaele Trombetta, draws on his career experience to answer the question of whether the G7 is still relevant in today’s international order. Detailing a narrative of the G7’s history, confronting its challenges, and addressing its common criticisms, this paper deals with the alternatives (G20 and BRICS), as well as where the G7’s interests should lie in future relations with China and the African nations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, G20, G7, BRICS, and International Order
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Europe, and Asia

31. China in Africa: The Nuanced Reality of Belt and Road

Author:: Hank Cohen
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: China’s growing presence in Africa has been the subject of significant criticism. The popular understanding in the US of China’s role on the continent has been that the People’s Republic, via the Belt and Road Initiative, has offered African countries a raw deal: shoddy infrastructure projects in exchange for loans they know their partners cannot repay. The approach is commonly described as debt-trap diplomacy, garnering unfavorable comparisons to organized crime behavior. But the reality of China’s presence in Africa is more nuanced.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

32. The Problem with Power: Taiwan in the Era of Great Power Competition

Author:: Joey Ching Aracena
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The United States and the PRC hold opposing positions on the “Taiwan Question.” The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act affirms U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s defense by providing weapons and services to promote Taiwan’s self-defense capability.” The Act also considers “any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means...a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.” Conversely, the PRC emphasizes that Taiwan “reunification” is a strategic priority that “cannot be dragged on generation after generation.” At the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), PRC President Xi Jinping stated, “We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification… but we will never promise to renounce the use of force.” Despite the PRC’s coercive behavior and sharpened rhetoric, Taiwan refuses to accept “reunification” under the PRC’s proposed “One Country, Two Systems” model. Nevertheless, the United States and the PRC both discourage Taiwan’s independence. Both states understand that if Taiwan were to formally declare independence, it would compel both parties to respond, potentially escalating towards military conflict. By attempting to influence Taiwan’s behavior, both great powers implicitly recognize Taiwan’s role in making or breaking their respective strategies. In this way, Taiwan maintains a powerful point of leverage in the “Triangular Relationship,” as it could take actions that trigger future conflict between the United States and the PRC.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

33. Chinese Export of Restricted High Priority Battlefield Items to Russia

Author:: Spencer Faragasso
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: The Institute for Science and International Security has reviewed more than 295,000 commercial import-export trade manifest records from May 2022 through the end of December 2023, detailing exports of restricted Tier One Harmonized System Codes (HS Codes) items on the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Common High Priority List (CHPL) being exported by Chinese companies to Russian importers. The BIS CHLP applies trade restrictions to Russia on the most sensitive and sought-after Western electronics and other commodities that Russia requires to build its war machine. Tier One covers key items that Russia cannot domestically produce and that have limited manufacturers and constitutes four HS Code chapter 84 codes (8542.31, 8542.32, 8542.33, and 8542.39) detailing the most important electronics which Russia needs to build drones, missiles, and other weapon systems. Russia depends on illicit import practices and networks to acquire these goods from overseas, mainly Western goods via China. Without these critical commodities, Russia would be crippled in its ability to produce the advanced missiles, drones, and other combat systems it needs to wage its war of aggression in Ukraine. More than $1.5 billion worth of restricted Tier One commodities were found being exported from China to Russia during the assessed period. The shipments contained electronics designed and produced by Western firms, but shipped by often obscure and little-known Chinese companies to Russian firms. Shipments containing Western brands found in the trade data include Texas Instruments, XILINX, Analog Devices, Intel, NVIDIA, ST Microelectronics, and other major sought-after designers and producers of electronics. Many of these companies’ products have been frequently found in Russian weapons used in Ukraine, especially in drone systems such as the Shahed 136 and the Lancet kamikaze drones, and Kometa anti-jamming equipment. For example, XILINX field programmable gate arrays (FPGA) and microcontrollers, all of which were found in the assessed trade data, are essential components in the Shahed 136, hundreds of which are being launched at Ukraine each month. 1 NVIDIA Jetson AI modules play a key role in how the Lancet—another drone launched by Russia at Ukraine in the thousands—autonomously identifies, tracks, and engages targets. 2 These amounts of drones, as well as other weapon systems like missiles and other drones, demand a huge quantity of Western Tier 1 goods to keep up production rates and meet the Russian military’s operational needs.
Topic:: Weapons, Exports, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

34. Beijing’s Passive-Aggressive Middle East Policy

Author:: Michael Singh
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The real threat to U.S. interests in the region isn’t rising Chinese influence, but the erosion of Washington's influence. Will China broker a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? It is a question nobody is asking, because the answer is obvious—not a chance. Yet after Beijing hosted Iran-Saudi talks that led those two rivals to re-establish diplomatic relations in March 2023, some observers wondered if China had supplanted the U.S. as the Middle East’s diplomatic broker. Since Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre, China has put such illusions to rest: its conduct shows that it is less interested in the success of its own initiatives than in the failure of Washington’s. The real threat to U.S. interests in the Mideast isn’t rising Chinese influence, but the erosion of our own...
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

35. China’s Assertive Foreign Policy and Global Visions Under Xi Jinping

Author:: Zekeriyya Akdağ
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: China, which has made a major economic breakthrough, has become one of the most important actors in international politics by increasing its military power in recent years. China's increasing power and influence in the international arena arouses increasing curiosity about the country's foreign policy. With Xi Jinping becoming president, China began to display a more assertive attitude or behavior on many issues. This study basically seeks an answer to the question of what differences Xi Jinping brought to Chinese foreign policy. What kind of changes do these differences lead to in Chinese foreign policy? In this study, the general tendencies and directions of Chinese foreign policy during the Xi Jinping period are discussed. The assertive foreign policy approach that Xi Jinping is trying to implement is analyzed. In this context, the visions of "Chinese dream", "new type of great power relations", "new type of international relations", “Belt and Road Initiative" and "a community with a common future for humanity", which reflect Xi's assertive foreign policy approach, are examined. At the same time, challenges to the assertive foreign policy implemented under Xi Jinping are discussed. The study mainly questions the extent to which Xi Jinping's assertive foreign policy approach is successful. The study concludes that Xi Jinping's active foreign policy approach has not increased China's sphere of influence in the international arena to the extent expected. As China becomes more visible in the international arena, the country's foreign policy challenges seem to be increasing.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Xi Jinping, and International Politics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

36. Populist Dichotomy in Homogenous Societies: Internal and External Others in South Korean Politics

Author:: Nurcan Ceyhan
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: This study aims to analyze populism in the scope of South Korean politics. It addresses the contexts in which political actors adopt dichotomous populist discourses and the implications of populist mentality on the social fabric of country. Populism can be defined in three different dimensions as an exclusionary, divisive and marginalizing ideology, discourse politics and a mobilization strategy. It is typically built on others that take on various forms. In this framework, the recent reflections of populism in the case of South Korea are discussed through the dichotomies and constructed perceptions of the other. It seeks to shed light on how political actors in South Korea which is assumed to have a homogenous social structure, point out the internal and external others that constitute the essence of populist politics. While populism’s understanding of the other is relatively uniform in different contexts, in South Korea the reflections of populism are differentiated and concretely understood through a range of internal and external others. South Korea, which is considered as one of the successful democracies in East Asia, is also affected by populist wave. The reflections of populism in South Korea are not severe and can generally be expressed as soft populism. Moreover, it is predominantly effective on discourse politics and is not observed in the form of concrete policies.
Topic:: Populism, Domestic Politics, Discourse Analysis, and Others
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

37. Elevating Consumer Confidence: Strengthening Legal Frameworks and Cross-Border Dispute Resolution in ASEAN’s Digital Marketplace

Author:: Mahirah Mahusin and Hilmy Prilliadi
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: ASEAN’s rapidly growing digital economy underscores the urgent need to safeguard online consumers. As internet and e-commerce usage soar, robust consumer protection mechanisms are essential to address the risks inherent in digital transactions. This Policy Brief explores the current state of online consumer protection in ASEAN, highlighting the critical need for comprehensive legal and policy frameworks that span all stages of online transactions. Drawing on the ASEAN Strategic Action Plan on Consumer Protection and existing legislative measures, it identifies significant gaps in coverage and enforcement. The analysis emphasises the importance of pre-contractual information duties in fostering transparency and consumer trust. Key policy recommendations include the establishment of minimum protection standards for digital platforms, the development of thorough pre-contractual regulations, and the creation of an interoperable ASEAN Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) network. These measures aim to enhance consumer confidence, ensure a secure digital marketplace, and align ASEAN’s practices with international standards.
Topic:: Digital Economy, ASEAN, E-Commerce, Digital Marketplace, and Consumer Protection
Political Geography:: Asia

38. Promoting E-Invoicing Interoperability in ASEAN: Overcoming Barriers to Trade Digitalisation

Author:: Mahirah Mahusin and Hilmy Prilliadi
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Electronic invoicing (e-invoicing) is a vital component of paperless trading, delivering substantial cost savings and efficiency gains for businesses. The ASEAN e-invoicing market has experienced notable growth, spurred by initiatives from tax authorities, public procurement agencies, and business digitalisation programmes. However, adoption across the region still faces significant challenges. To address these barriers, ASEAN has introduced initiatives to foster interoperability, develop common standards, and support regional integration. By prioritising standardisation, offering government support, and encouraging private sector adoption through financial incentives and capacity-building efforts, ASEAN can accelerate trade digitalisation and enhance economic integration across the region.
Topic:: Trade, ASEAN, Supply Chains, Digitalization, and Electronic Invoicing
Political Geography:: Asia

39. Securing Regional Solar Supply Chains: Determinants and Preparedness of the Northeastern Region of India and ASEAN

Author:: Prabir De, Komal Biswal, and Venkatachalam Anbumozhi
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Renewable energy contributes to the acceleration of the energy transition, supports global environmental mitigation, and helps meet sustainable development goals. Energy connectivity of India’s Northeastern Region (NER) with neighbouring countries particularly ASEAN assumes critical importance for accelerating economic integration. NER can play a three-dimensional role as power producer, exporter, and transit provider provided a quadrangular approach to build energy linkages and promote integration is consciously put in place. To understand whether the NER states are capable enough to take forward the solar supply chain development and bolster the ASEAN-India engagements in solar energy sector, this study has designed a state-level index of solar supply chain development by factoring in seven parameters, namely, (i) economic situations, (ii) environmental factors, (iii) spread of connectivity, (iv) financial enabling conditions, (v) mobility, (vi) human development, and (vi) social cohesion, which directly or indirectly influence the solar supply chain development in India. The results show that a clean and decent environment is must for development of solar supply chain. In addition, the study suggests that there is a need to improve the solar supply chain capability in the NER to enhance the economic growth. Leveraging policy support and reinvigorating existing institutions and creating new ones are imperatives for predicting the solar supply chain in the NER. This indexing may help track the trends, allowing for more informed decision-making in securing regional solar supply chain.
Topic:: Renewable Energy, ASEAN, Solar Power, Supply Chains, and Energy
Political Geography:: India and Asia

40. Urban Amenities and Trade Resilience During the Covid-19 Pandemic in Malaysia

Author:: Cassey Lee
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The main objective of this study is to empirically examine the role played by amenities in supporting growth and trade in Malaysia during the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery phases. The manufacturing sector has been an important factor in mitigating the negative impact of the pandemic. It has also been a positive driver of the country’s economic recovery. Transport, health and ICT-related amenities supported production, consumption, and trade activities during the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery periods.
Topic:: Trade, Cities, Resilience, COVID-19, and Amenities
Political Geography:: Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

41. Enhancing Plastic Reuse and Recycling with a Full Life-Cycle Approach

Author:: Aulia Salsabella Suwarno and Ivana Suradja
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Plastic pollution poses both environmental and economic challenges for Southeast Asia, underscoring the urgent need for a transition to a circular plastics economy driven by reuse and recycling strategies. Although AMS have incorporated these strategies within their National Action Plans, they are struggling to achieve the scale necessary to counteract rising plastic waste. This policy brief identifies key barriers hindering the growth of plastic reuse and recycling initiatives in the region and provides targeted recommendations based on a full life-cycle approach. By adopting this approach, AMS can maximise the economic potential associated with effective plastic waste management and pollution mitigation.
Topic:: Environment, Pollution, Recycling, ASEAN, and Plastic
Political Geography:: Asia

42. Strengthening ASEAN’s Cybersecurity: Collaborative Strategies for Enhanced Resilience and Regional Cooperation

Author:: Mahirah Mahusin and Hilmy Prilliadi
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: As ASEAN’s digital economy continues to expand, the region faces escalating cybersecurity risks with significant potential costs. This policy brief examines ASEAN’s current cybersecurity landscape, underscoring the need for enhanced cooperation and comprehensive strategies to address the rising threat of cyberattacks. The economic impact of cyberattacks in ASEAN is already substantial, affecting both public and private sectors. This brief reviews existing efforts such as the ASEAN Cybersecurity Cooperation Strategy 2021–2025 and the ASEAN Regional Computer Emergency Response Team (ASEAN CERT), recommending the establishment of a shared cybersecurity taxonomy, capacity-building initiatives, and legal framework updates to bolster cybersecurity. Key policy recommendations encourage robust multi-stakeholder collaboration at national and regional levels.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Cybersecurity, Regulation, Digital Economy, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Asia

43. Promoting Fair Competition in ASEAN’s Digital Economy: Strengthening Policies for a Level Playing Field

Author:: Mahirah Mahusin and Hilmy Prilliadi
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: ASEAN’s digital economy is growing rapidly, offering both significant opportunities and challenges. Ensuring a competitive digital market is essential for fostering innovation, reducing costs, and enhancing product quality and choice for consumers and businesses, particularly MSMEs. This policy brief assesses the current digital market competition landscape in ASEAN, emphasising the need for robust competition policies to mitigate anti-competitive behaviours and establish a level playing field. It discusses key initiatives like the ASEAN Competition Action Plan (ACAP) 2025 and the ASEAN Guidelines for Sharing Merger Cases, while examining the complexities of digital markets, including the influence of dominant platforms, algorithmic impacts, and data privacy considerations. Policy recommendations focus on aligning provisions in the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) with regional standards and international best practices, enhancing regulatory capabilities, fostering regional cooperation, and promoting consumer education and protection.
Topic:: Digital Economy, Innovation, ASEAN, Economic Competition, and Digital Marketplace
Political Geography:: Asia

44. Global Minimum Tax: Policy Impact on Investment Promotion and Incentives in ASEAN Member States

Author:: Sufian Jusoh and Intan Murnira Ramli
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States are some of the most important foreign direct investment destinations in the world. Investment in ASEAN Member States covers all four pillars of investment typology: natural resources, market-seeking, export oriented, and strategic assets. Key sectors – such as semiconductors, tourism, consumer products, e-commerce, banking, and commodities (e.g. nickel) – are expected to benefit from this trend. Many of the investors in ASEAN are multinational enterprises, and multinational enterprises earning €750 million or more in two of the four fiscal years, are now subject to the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) in more than 140 jurisdictions around the world. With the introduction of the GMT, ASEAN Member States must rethink their incentives and investment promotion strategies to maintain their competitive edge over other foreign direct investment destinations around the globe.
Topic:: Tax Systems, Investment, ASEAN, and Incentives
Political Geography:: Asia

45. Empowering Micro Businesses in Southeast Asia: Addressing Challenges and Harnessing Opportunities for ASEAN Economic Integration

Author:: Haris Zuan, Muhammad Falik Abd Razak, and Intan Murnira Ramli
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) form the backbone of Southeast Asia’s private sector, with microbusinesses comprising a significant majority. However, many operate informally, posing challenges for state recognition and assistance, particularly when youth manage these enterprises. More available data are needed to prioritise microbusinesses within economic policy. Nonetheless, microenterprises stand to benefit significantly from the region’s robust digital, transportation, and cultural connectivity, making enhancements in these areas crucial for their success. To address these challenges, policy recommendations focus on empowering youth in the micro-economy through digital inclusion initiatives and greater participation in decision-making processes. Additionally, enhancing cross-border payment systems is essential for promoting innovation and digitalisation in payment systems. Standard harmonisation, the adoption of shared data frameworks, and regulatory frameworks are necessary for facilitating faster cross-border transactions and minimising disruptions in payment systems.
Topic:: Business, Regional Integration, ASEAN, Economic Integration, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Asia

46. Impacts of Trade Diversion from China in the United States Market on Wages in a Third Country: Evidence from Thailand

Author:: Kazunobu Hayakawa and Sasatra Sudsawasd
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Since the latter half of the 2010s, China’s exports to the United States (US) have gradually decreased due to the US-China trade war and other factors, such as lockdown measures in China to combat COVID-19. This decrease has resulted in increasing exports from third countries, including Thailand, to the US market by substituting China’s exports, i.e. trade diversion. Against this backdrop, this study empirically investigates how the changes in exports to the US driven by the change in China’s exports to the US affect wages in Thailand. Especially, we examine the heterogeneous effects according to workers’ characteristics. To this end, we conduct regression analyses using individual-level quarterly data from the first quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2023. Our main finding is that the wage gap between low- and middle-skilled workers decreased, whilst the gap between middle- and high-skilled workers increased. Namely, the increased exports to the US caused ‘wage polarisation’ in Thailand. We also find that the increase in exports to the US contributed to expanding the wage gap by age but narrowing it by gender.
Topic:: Markets, Trade Wars, Exports, and Wages
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Thailand, and United States of America

47. Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Impact Firm GVC Participation? Microdata Evidence from India

Author:: Ketan Reddy, Subash Sasidharan, and Shandre Mugan Thangavelu
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: In this study, we examine the implications of economic policy uncertainty on global value chain (GVC) participation and the integration of Indian manufacturing firms using firm-level data. Using panel data from 2004 to 2021, we find that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impedes GVC participation and firm integration. Further, we find that the impact of EPU on GVC participation operates through the financial constraint channel with highly leveraged and low-liquidity firms. Using survival analysis, we also highlight that higher EPU results in higher exit from GVCs and reduces entry into GVCs.
Topic:: Economic Policy, Manufacturing, Global Value Chains, and Microdata
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

48. Good Regulatory Practice in Indonesia

Author:: Ridha Aditya Nugraha, Eri Yoga Sidharta, Luki Safriana, Dian Ayu Aryani, and Vicia Sacharissa
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This policy brief discusses the implementation and impact of the Online Single Submission (OSS) system in Indonesia, developed under the auspices of the Indonesian Investment Coordinating Board or Ministry of Investment (BKPM), which has streamlined the business licensing process and improved regulatory quality. The OSS system serves as a centralised platform for businesses to register and acquire licenses, particularly benefiting micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). The digital economy in Indonesia, especially the e-commerce sector, is experiencing significant growth, with projections indicating substantial increases in gross merchandise value (GMV). The OSS system has positively impacted Indonesia's regulatory quality and improved the perception of the government's competence in supporting the private sector's growth. This policy brief recommends enhancing the implementation of the OSS system, promoting public participation, facilitating interagency coordination, and conducting regular monitoring and evaluation to assess the impact of Good Regulatory Practices (GRP) as implemented within OSS system on e-commerce sector.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Regulation, Innovation, and Online Single Submission
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

49. Policy Recommendation to Achieve a Carbon-Neutral Economy: The Case of Corporate Governance and Carbon Performance in Malaysia’s Smart Cities

Author:: Siti Indati Mustapa, Noor Raida Abd Rahman, Amar Hisham Jaaffar, Nor Salwati Othman, and Syarifah Mardhiah Syed Salim
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This study explores the role of corporate governance in carbon-intensive and non-carbon-intensive companies within Malaysian smart cities. The paper aims to understand the challenges and impacts of corporate governance on carbon and financial performance. In the first stage, carbon emissions data from 51 Bursa Malaysia-listed companies were analysed, revealing that corporate governance had no significant impact on carbon and financial performance. However, variations were noted in carbon-intensive industries. Liquidity emerged as a key factor positively affecting carbon performance, while firm size and market-to-book value were the main drivers of financial performance. In the second stage, a survey of 256 firms highlighted a high level of awareness regarding the significance of carbon reporting practices. Challenges included complexity regarding carbon reporting and knowledge limitations. The study advocates for the centralisation of carbon accounting standards, sharing best practices, and fostering of global collaboration to bolster effective climate action. These findings offer empirical evidence crucial for informing policymakers, companies, investors, and regulators alike. Future research could expand with larger samples, explore digital technology’s role in smart cities, and compare carbon reporting practices globally.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Smart Cities, Carbon Emissions, Corporate Governance, and Energy
Political Geography:: Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

50. City Amenities and Internal Migration: Evidence from Chinese Cities

Author:: Karma Wangdi and Shandre Mugan Thangavelu
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This paper provides new empirical evidence of city amenities’ role in China’s internal migration using a unique city-level dataset. The results highlight the positive effects of city amenities such as education, public facilities, transportation, environment, and climate conditions in attracting migrant workers to cities. In our study, migrant workers are more likely to move to cities with better education, more public facilities, higher coverage of urban pensions, and a cooler climate with more precipitation. Moreover, they prefer to migrate and live in cities with larger service agglomeration and employment, higher average wages, more job opportunities, and lower house prices
Topic:: Development, Labor Issues, Cities, Internal Migration, and Amenities
Political Geography:: China and Asia

51. Urban Amenities and Regional Performance: Case Study of Indonesia

Author:: Titik Anas, Widdi Mugijayani, Estiana Cahyawati, and Muhammad Ridho
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The aim of this paper is to evaluate the importance of urban amenities to economic development using Indonesia as a case study. Indonesia has rich micro-level data on urban amenities, which we group in this paper into 12 categories, namely education, health, religious, and shopping facilities; accommodations; banks; historical sites; recreation sites; restaurants; public transportation stations; modern shopping facilities; and gas stations. Using panel data of 2007 and 2014, we test how urban amenities affect regional development, proxied by employment and population growth. We show that education and shopping facilities significantly affect the growth of employment and population. We also found that the effect of the availability of education facilities is stronger in the regions with industrial parks.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, Services, Productivity, and Amenities
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

52. Carbon Capture Storage and Utilisation (CCUS) Development in Thailand

Author:: Twarath Sutabutr
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Thailand is a developing country with a growing economy, which has led to increased energy consumption and carbon emissions. To tackle this issue, the Royal Thai Government has implemented several policies and initiatives to reduce the country’s carbon footprint and promote sustainable development. Carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) has just become one of Thailand’s policies to help push a low-carbon agenda and to enable net-zero emissions in 2065. The Thailand National Committee on Climate Change Policy approved the establishment of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Steering Committee, which initiated the technology applications for the country’s first CCUS. The committee’s mission is to accelerate the actions that can mitigate climate impacts by applying CCUS technology in the energy and industry sectors, leveraging the knowledge and experiences in the petroleum exploration and production industry. This first CCUS pilot project, originally initiated by a team in the PTT Group, is the Thailand CCUS HUB Project. This paper summarises the conceptual design and actions required to start implementing the project.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Carbon Emissions, and Carbon Capture
Political Geography:: Asia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

53. Regional Amenities, Services Offshoring, and Skilled Employment in the Republic of Korea

Author:: Ju Hyun Pyun
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This study empirically examines the effect of services offshoring and regional amenities on the composition of skilled employment for services firms. Analysing Korean firm-level data spanning from 2006 to 2019, we find that services offshoring, characterised by the import of services intermediate inputs, correlates with an increase in the proportion of skilled workers within firms. Additionally, the effects of this shift are nuanced based on different skill levels: services offshoring leads to an increase in the share of permanent headquarters workers to total workers. However, it does not affect the share of high-end skilled workers, such as headquarters’ share of management and research and development (R&D) workers. Moreover, regional amenities promote the positive effect of services offshoring on permanent headquarters workers’ shares. Lastly, the positive effect of offshoring on demand for high-end skilled workers in headquarters is significantly greater for firms with higher R&D intensity.
Topic:: Employment, Human Capital, Services, Skilled Labor, Research and Development, and Offshoring
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

54. Structural Transformation and Economic Resilience: The Case of Malaysia

Author:: Cassey Lee
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Exports have been a critical source for the resilience of the Malaysian economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic period. Long-term structural change in intersectoral production networks could have reduced this resilience. Stronger domestic intersectoral linkages and declining participation in backward global value chain participation are likely to reduce the impact of positive export shocks on the country’s economy. The services sector has become increasing important over time. Consumption in the services sector is clearly an important driver of growth. A positive export shock is enhanced by higher domestic intersectoral linkages in the services sector but not in manufacturing.
Topic:: Economy, Exports, Macroeconomics, Services, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

55. Have Dynamic Spillovers and the Connectedness of Trade Policy Uncertainty Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Sino–US Trade Frictions?

Author:: Chien-Chiang Lee and Farzan Yahya
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: In this paper, we examine the spillover and connectedness between the trade policy uncertainty (TPU) of the United States (US), China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea) under global geopolitical risk (GPR), infectious disease equity market volatility (EMVID), and GPR from North Korea (GPRNK) using a relatively novel time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach. Additionally, method of moments quantile regression is utilised to estimate the asymmetric effect of GPR, GPRNK, and EMVID on TPU. Our findings suggest that there is a high total and directional spillover amongst underlying variables during Sino–US trade friction that further elevated during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic period. The US is a net receiver of spillover from the TPU of all economies, while the Chinese TPU receives spillover from EMVID. The results further confirm that both the TPU of China (TPUCN) and the TPU of the US (TPUUS) are vulnerable to EMVID, but the effect is stronger for Chinese TPU in the higher quantiles. Although Japanese TPU is less vulnerable to GPR and EMVID, it is significantly exposed to GPRNK. Korean trade shows resiliency and immunity to pandemic-induced volatility and GPRNK.
Topic:: Trade Wars, Trade Policy, COVID-19, and Spillovers
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

56. The Effect of COVID-19 on Firms’ Behaviour: The Case of Japan

Author:: Yuting Chen and Bin Ni
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Since the onset of the coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) pandemic, social distancing practices and government‐mandated lockdowns have become the norm. These have cut off interaction amongst people, firms, and society, triggering an even larger decline in economic activity. In this study, we apply annual Japanese foreign affiliate data to quantify how COVID-19 has affected firms’ behaviour in various aspects. The estimation results show that both the revenue and purchasing behaviour of Japanese foreign affiliates were affected during COVID-19. This negative impact is mainly through the channel of stringent regulations imposed by host countries where affiliates are located. The general result we can derive from these findings is that COVID-19 negatively affects Japanese firms engaged in overseas activities. This leaves us with the question of when external shocks such as COVID-19 stand in the way of firms’ overseas activities, and what role the government should play to achieve a balance between safety and economic revival.
Topic:: Trade, COVID-19, Performance Evaluation, and Firms
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

57. COVID-19 and Firm Response: Evidence from China

Author:: Dongmin Kong, Chen Liu, and Mengxu Xiong
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This paper explores the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on firm response. Using a novel COVID-19 sentiment index, our estimation shows that the pandemic significantly reduced the overseas revenue and profits of firms listed on the Chinese A-share market. Moreover, we observe that an increase in loans, and a drop in debt financing cost and trade credit, were prominent during the pandemic. We contend that reduced cash flows, which damaged firm operations; government support, which provided more financing channels; and increased default risks, which placed barriers on trade credit, are the plausible mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic affects firm performance. Profit contraction was more pronounced for firms with a lower ratio of domestic content in exports and state-owned enterprises, while external financing was easier for firms subject to stringent financial constraints despite their lowered trade credit.
Topic:: Trade, COVID-19, and Firms
Political Geography:: China and Asia

58. Quantitative Analysis of Optimal Investment Scale and Timing for Flood Control Measures by Multi-Regional Economic Growth Model: Case Studies in Viet Nam

Author:: Hiroaki Ishiwata, Masashi Sakamoto, Makoto Ikeda, and Venkatachalam Anbumozhi
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This study aims to develop and utilise a multi-regional economic growth model that can take into account flood damage and investment in disaster risk reduction, and, through case studies in Viet Nam, quantitatively analyse the long-term effects of investment in disaster risk reduction on the national and local economy, as well as the optimal scale and timing of investments in flood protection, to gain a better overview of these factors. The results indicate that additional investment in disaster risk reduction could stimulate economic growth, and that the optimal range of the disaster risk reduction budget rate was around 0.3% to 0.5% of GDP, assuming a constant budget rate throughout the total 25-year calculation period. In the case of a variable disaster risk reduction budget rate, we observed that a variable budget rate that gradually reduces the disaster risk reduction budget rate from a higher level than the current rate could further promote economic growth than if the budget rate were fixed. In both cases, we verified that with excessive investment in disaster risk reduction, the high tax burden had the risk of reducing investment in production capital and lead to stagnating economic growth. By region, the long-term effects of investment in disaster risk reduction were most seen in the Central region, where the rate of flood damage is the highest.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Investment, Flood, and De-Risking
Political Geography:: Asia, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

59. Agricultural Production as a Coping Strategy during the Covid-19 Pandemic? Evidence from Rural Viet Nam

Author:: Hai-Anh Dang and Cuong Viet Nguyen
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: We examine the Covid-19 pandemic-induced negative effects on household welfare in rural Viet Nam. Analysing recent Viet Nam Household Living Standard Surveys spanning 2016–2021, we find robust evidence that lockdown measures resulted in a 3.9% reduction in per capita income and a 2.6 percentage-point increase in the headcount poverty rate of rural households. It also had severe effects on rural households’ wages and self-employed non-farm income, but rural households appeared to have relied on farm income to cope with the lockdowns. Each additional month under lockdown reduced wage income and non-farm income by 2.8% and 6.3% respectively but increased crop income by 9.5%, livestock income by 7.1%, and other farm income by 12.2%.
Topic:: Agriculture, Rural, COVID-19, and Production
Political Geography:: Asia, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

60. Blue Economy in Myanmar

Author:: Zaw Oo and Ngu Wah Win
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Myanmar’s commitment to the Blue Economy is driven by the Sustainable Development Goals, and it has developed a long-term plan to guide its efforts in reaching these goals. Myanmar’s vision of a Blue Economy involves various sectors, such as fisheries, tourism, and energy. However, the sustainable development of these sectors is facing many challenges, such as conflicts in coastal townships and the departure of foreign businesses. Myanmar must actively seek international cooperation with neighbouring countries and organisations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to form a stronger framework for sustainable use of ocean resources; invest in research, data collection, and capacity building; and strengthen the governance of Marine Protected Areas.
Topic:: Environment, ASEAN, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

61. Selective Migration Policies With Chinese Characteristics

Author:: Rey Koslowski and Sheng Ding
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: This article examines China’s recruitment of high-skilled migrants within a broader comparative analysis of selective migration strategies and adds the neglected Chinese case to the comparative immigration policy literature. China adopted certain selective migration polices from other countries, such as Canada and the United States, but its selective migration strategy does not fit established categories. Beginning in 2013, the Chinese communist government enacted new laws and issued new regulations to attract foreign talent and better regulate the entry, residence and employment of foreigners. The contours of China’s distinctive selective migration policy became more defined as Beijing established a point system combined with a job offer requirement; reformed the Z visa, which is issued to those with a college degree who intend to work in China; established the R visa for exceptionally high-skilled migrants; and adopted more liberal policies on permanent residency for the highly skilled. These policies, combined with the opportunities presented by China’s rapidly growing economy, attracted growing numbers of university graduates and propelled China, to become, for a brief period before the COVID-19 pandemic, a major destination for high-skilled migrants.
Topic:: Migration, Employment, Migration Policy, and Skilled Migration
Political Geography:: China and Asia

62. Rethinking Democracy ep. 4: China's growing presence in the Middle East with Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman

Author:: F. Gregory Gause, Jon B. Alterman, and Gonul Tol
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: About the series: This is a critical year for the future of democracy. Half the world’s population will go to the polls in 2024, at a time when citizens in America and across the globe are losing faith in democratic institutions. We often view the rollback of democracy and threats to the liberal international order as separate problems, but in reality they are closely interlinked. Through a new limited podcast series, MEI’s Gonul Tol seeks to examine the interplay between democracy’s domestic and international foes as well as how to counter them. In this episode: China has made significant inroads in the Middle East through diplomacy, trade, investment, and infrastructure projects. Beijing advertises the benefits of its authoritarian development model and presents itself as a responsible alternative to the United States. What does this mean for MENA autocracies? Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman join Gonul Tol to discuss China’s growing presence in the Middle East.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Institutions
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

63. Securitization of China Pakistan Economic Corridor Amid India China Rivalry

Author:: Muhammad Babar and Muhammad Umar
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI). The project has been considered the guarantor of Pakistan‟s economic development and has the potential to significantly improve the Pakistan gross domestic product and to transform Pakistan economy from import driven to export driven. Since the project has been under various impediments particularly in the domain of security, there have been several attacks on the Chinese personal working on the projects and its installations, majorly prompted by the Indian backed proxies and non-state actors in Pakistan. The Potential threats to the success of CPEC have been enhanced due the growing and intensifying India china rivalry. The securitization of the CPEC from all potential threats is a matter of national interest and ensuring national and economic security. This paper highlights the importance of CPEC for Pakistan‟s economy, potentials threats to the CPEC emanating from the Indian backed-proxies, discuss security measures taken to address these concerns and suggests a strategic path forward for the project securitization.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Non State Actors, Borders, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Exports, Economic Development, Rivalry, Securitization, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, and Asia

64. Effectiveness of United Nations Security Council Sanctions: A Case Study of North Korea

Author:: Saira Iqbal
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: In the absence of a governmental structure, associations, organizations, or groups oversee managing global affairs and preserving stability and peace. The United Nations was founded in the wake of World War II and the start of the Cold War to guard against the possibility of nuclear weapons and a third world war, because of the then-current nuclear race. Nonetheless, the organizational structure has rules and regulations, occasionally with penalties attached, to maintain that harmony. This paper examines the effectiveness of the UN Security Council sanctions by using the case study of North Korea. This research evaluates how sanctions affect North Korea's political and economic behavior by applying the coercive diplomacy theory and this study is analytical and descriptive in nature. Many books, articles, newspapers, books, journal articles, governmental publications and United Nations resolutions documents are used to read, explore and analyze the resolutions passed by United Nations Security Council regarding North Korea. The results imply that sanctions have not had much of an impact on North Korea's nuclear program, while having some success in reducing the country's trade and access to foreign capital. The report indicates that denuclearization is unlikely to be achieved by sanctions alone and suggests a comprehensive strategy that combines ongoing pressure, diplomatic engagement, and economic incentives. The paper offers insights for policymakers attempting to solve the North Korean nuclear development threat and adds to the continuing discussion over the efficacy of sanctions as a coercive diplomatic tool.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Sanctions, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

65. China's "Second Battlefield": Political Warfare in Combat Operations

Author:: Kerry K. Gershaneck
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article addresses how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will conduct political warfare against the U.S. Marine Corps in combat operations. The PRC has inextricably intertwined political warfare in its naval and maritime strategies to set the conditions for success in such a kinetic war. If the PRC perceives that political warfare alone will not achieve its goals, it threatens to achieve them through armed conflict, which may result in U.S. Marine Corps operations as a counter. This article examines key aspects of PRC political warfare in combat operations, to include a brief historical overview; goals, objectives, strategies, and tactics employed; targeting of U.S. and allied combat units, military base communities, and overseas Chinese; and the likely progression of political warfare operations throughout the combat campaign.
Topic:: Maritime, Gray Zone, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), political warfare, Hybrid Warfare, Coast Guard, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Cognitive Warfare
Political Geography:: China and Asia

66. Fires From the Shore: Supporting the Fight for Sea Control

Author:: Shaun Callahan
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The struggle to obtain, maintain, and exploit sea control during a campaign is an inherently Joint endeavor requiring a multi-Service, cross-domain application of firepower and maneuver. Maritime strikes from the land domain provide a critical offset to the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) growing strength at sea and enable Joint force maneuver in the Western Pacific. To have a meaningful impact on the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) surface action groups and contribute to a Joint force objective to gain sea control in the Western Pacific as part of a coordinated campaign, the U.S. Army’s maritime strike capability must be aggregated into effective salvos by the supported maritime component commander. If deterrence fails in a strategically near future, naval operations in the Western Pacific will need to incorporate the U.S. Army’s multidomain task forces and their maritime strike capability to defeat the PRC’s antiaccess, area-denial (A2/AD) strategy.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Army, People's Liberation Army (PLA), Sea Control, and Joint Force Maneuver
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

67. Oceans Are Now Battlefields: How the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps Can Counter North Korea’s Navy in an Evolving Age

Author:: Alan Cunningham
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The North Korean armed forces are one of the main threats in the Asian geographic region and consistently have been a thorn in the side of Western allied Asian nations and the United States. In such a conflict with the North Koreans, the United States would, alongside others, take a lead role in countering North Korean naval forces. Taking into account the Force Design 2030 and 2045 battleplans devised by the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps, it is imperative to explore how the United States could work to combat North Korean forces in the near future. With the Force Designs and stated modernizations and improvements being performed in sea-based warfare, there is much more to do to make a strong military force that can strike against the North Koreans.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Maritime, Marine Corps, Amphibious Operations, and Force Design
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, and United States of America

68. Kim Jong united How a Future North Korean ASAT Threat Makes Strange International Bedfellows and Novel Opportunity

Author:: Max A. Schreiber
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: While North Korea does not have a formal direct ascent antisatellite (DA-ASAT) weapon, its missile technology provides some baseline technology to make one, and a DA-ASAT program furthers the ruling Kim Jong Un regime’s strategic goals. Thus, the United States should prepare for this threat now. This article argues that North Korean DA-ASAT weapon is a unique political-military challenge, in that China and Russia—traditional North Korean allies but major space-faring nations—are also threatened by this weapon because of the indiscriminate space debris it creates. This creates aligned interests between the United States, China, and Russia to stop a North Korean DA-ASAT program, and as this article asserts, the best way to do that is to cooperate in slowly advancing the North Korean space program with nonthreatening technology in return for the country abandoning DA-ASAT research.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Space, Satellites, and Strategic Weapons
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, and Indo-Pacific

69. Marine Corps and Space Force Integration for a More Lethal Joint Task Force to Counter China

Author:: Josh Bringhurst
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The objective of this article is to highlight the unique capabilities of the Marine Corps and Space Force and how they can function as part of a Joint Task Force (JTF) operating within U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM). More importantly, it aims to discuss the need to establish a Joint force structure and package that minimizes the risk should the United States need to quickly shift from competition to a crisis or, worse, conflict with China. Determining command relationships, allocated resources, and authorities as part of a JTF structure and package will be critical to quickly transition such a force in response to a crisis or engage the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in conflict.
Topic:: Space Force, Strategic Competition, Joint Operations, People's Liberation Army (PLA), US Marine Corps, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

70. Military Spacesteading: Space-based Logistics Mediums for Future Beachheads

Author:: Robert Jr. Billard
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article explores the concept of spacesteading as it pertains to military operations. Specifically, it expands on both potential and emerging technologies that could enable logistics nodes to be positioned in geosynchronous and geostationary orbit above the Earth to enable to rapid deployment of equipment. This article proposes that space domain domination would allow for a superior alternative to existing expeditionary logistics caches such as maritime prepositioning force ships and the Marine Corps Prepositioning Program–Norway. A pair of vignettes help to illustrate the value in the military enabling logistics capabilities within the space domain. While this article largely focuses on space-based logistics applications for the U.S. Marine Corps, these efforts would have far-reaching impacts to the whole of the U.S. military and beyond.
Topic:: Maritime, Logistics, Space Operations, Space Elevator, and Carbon Nanotubes
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

71. Malaysia’s “Triadic Maritime Diplomacy” Strategy in the South China Sea

Author:: Bama Andika Putra
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The importance of safeguarding Malaysia’s Kasawari gas field in the South China Sea has reoriented Malaysia’s maritime diplomatic strategies vis-à-vis China’s growing assertiveness in this semi-enclosed sea. China’s increased sea infringements through its coast guards and maritime constabulary forces have led Malaysia to adopt what this article coins as “triadic maritime diplomacy,” a combination of coercive, persuasive, and co-operative maritime diplomacy. Malaysia’s maritime diplomatic strategies thus act more as a set of contradictory policies rather than a decisive attempt to defend Malaysia’s sovereignty at sea. This article engages in qualitative inquiry to address two central empirical questions: Firstly, how has Malaysia managed the delicate balance between safeguarding its sovereignty at sea and maintaining close economic ties with China? Secondly, what accounts for Malaysia’s persistent “downplaying” stance despite the escalating intrusions around the Luconia Shoals, particularly concerning the Kasawari gas field? The findings of this study reveal three key aspects: Firstly, Malaysia’s prioritization of developing the Kasawari gas field has necessitated the adoption of seemingly contradictory policies, employing coercive maritime measures utilizing its naval assets while simultaneously adopting rhetoric that downplays crises. Secondly, Malaysia’s maritime diplomacy can be aptly characterized as “triadic” strategies, encompassing the adoption of coercive, persuasive, and co-operative approaches. Lastly, these seemingly inconsistent policies are a strategic response aimed at accommodating both immediate and prospective economic opportunities involving China, all while signaling its nonaligned stance to major global powers.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Gas, Maritime, Energy, Kasawari Gas Fields, and Luconia Shoals
Political Geography:: China, Malaysia, Asia, and South China Sea

72. Cold War Case Studies and Chinese Perspectives

Author:: Raven Witherspoon, Jenna Wichterman, and Shivam Shankar Singh
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Rising Sino-American tensions have prompted widespread discussion of a “New Cold War,” and analysts increasingly worry that flashpoints in the bilateral relationship could trigger conventional war that could escalate to the nuclear domain. This research utilizes the Cold War analogy as a starting point for analyzing how nuclear war between the U.S. and China can be averted.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

73. The Widening Schism across the Taiwan Strait

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The new Taiwanese president has adopted a tougher stance on the island’s de facto autonomy from China. Beijing, in turn, has amped up its pressure on the island. To avoid a mounting escalation, Taipei should tone down its rhetoric and Beijing should curb its military intimidation.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, Military Affairs, Crisis Management, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and Taiwan Strait

74. Dammed in the Mekong: Averting an Environmental Catastrophe

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Hydropower, sand mining and other development projects are threatening the ecological balance in the Mekong basin and the livelihoods of its residents. Policymakers would better serve the public by anticipating the problems of over-exploiting the river than by reacting to the consequences.
Topic:: Development, Environment, Livelihoods, and Hydropower
Political Geography:: Asia, Southeast Asia, and Mekong River

75. The Next U.S. Administration and China Policy

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The world’s two most powerful countries – the U.S. and China – are increasingly at odds over several issues. The winner of November’s U.S. presidential election should strive to contain the tensions in this difficult relationship in service of stability in the wider world.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Elections, Donald Trump, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

76. Local Social Governance in China: Spatial politics and social welfare

Author:: David S. G. Goodman
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: The policy goal of establishing local social governance in the People’s Republic of China since 2021 highlights two somewhat contradictory tendencies in its spatial politics. One is increased social welfare provision through economic, social and governmental institutions cooperating to create self-sustaining communities. The other is greater city-district and county level local control by the Communist Party of China. Local social governance remains in its infancy with limited policy implementation. The evidence to date though from an examination of the settings for local social governance, its causes, and preliminary implementation does not suggest major changes in the longer-term balance between the Party-state’s undoubted centralist and decentralist tendencies. Moreover, while there may be the desire both to improve social welfare provision, and to extend the reach of the state and the Party, the proposed programme of change faces immense and probably intractable challenges.
Topic:: Governance, Public Policy, and Social Welfare
Political Geography:: China and Asia

77. Understanding Elite Politics Through Relentless Research: Warren Sun’s Hua Guofeng Nianpu, Chronology of Hua Guofeng (1971–1981)

Author:: Frederick C. Teiwes
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:: This Working Paper is a pre-publication review of an immense documentary collection prepared over the past 25 years by Warren Sun, Adjunct Associate Professor at Monash University and Affiliate Member of the Sydney CSC. It is based on the intellectual premise that elite politics in the CCP cannot be understood without deep penetration into the details of political decision-making and conflict. In its absence, simplistic narratives emerge and become widely accepted, especially when the Party itself is creating the basis for the narrative. This is most prevalent for the immediate post-Mao period as a Hua Guofeng-Deng Xiaoping struggle between different ideological lines and in the profound misunderstanding of Hua as a limited, merely transitional political leader. Hua nianpu uses a wide range of sources to uncover details that contest such views. These include: the contemporary PRC public record; official documentary collections; internal Party documents including unpublished speeches and compendia of circulars at major Party meetings; memoirs, oral accounts, and recollections published in the PRC by or about leaders; studies by Party history scholars in PRC journals; more-adventurous books published in Hong Kong by Party historians and former officials; interviews with scholars and retired officials; and unique interviews with officials who worked as secretaries or as aides to very senior figures and their family members, especially members of Hua’s family. However, these sources have limitations that must be considered critically and discussed in terms of what they can and cannot provide. Taken together the detailed information compiled in Hua nianpu undermines central features of the accepted narrative, most notably by showing that the 1978 work conference and the subsequent Third Plenum were joint Hua-Deng ventures to advance modernization, and when unanticipated developments weakened Hua, Deng did not act against him. Instead, he worked to lower tensions and to return the focus to their original joint plan. Hua nianpu is a major basis for our joint book project, Hua Guofeng, Deng Xiaoping, and the Dismantling of Maoism. But this nianpu is entirely Professor Sun’s creation and exacting work. The target for submission of both these projects to their respective publishers is early 2025.
Topic:: Politics, History, Elites, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Hua Guofeng
Political Geography:: China and Asia

78. China, The United States And Japan In A Changing International Order: Historical Foundations Challenged By The Rise Of China

Author:: Cem Yılmaz
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: This study analyses bilateral relations among People’s Republic of China (China), the United States (US), and Japan by comparing the impacts of historical foundations on the one hand and a prominent contemporary factor, which is the rise of China. The study aims to compare basic historical data and the resilience of these data in the face of a rising China. The relationships among the three actors demonstrate that the historical legacy continues to hold prominence in Chinese perspectives of Japan, while the rise of the actor is prominent in American perspectives of China. Both historical legacy and a rising China factor are dominant in Japanese perceptions of China. The Japanese foreign policy towards China is characterised by a mutual reinforcement of both dimensions, resulting in an overall enhancement of their strength. The study, in this instance, demonstrated that historical parameters become less relevant when a contemporary parameter has the potential to have a major effect on history. The rise of China, which has resulted in a fundamental shift in the international order, and the decline in the importance of the historical dimension in the relationships between the actors under examination are viewed as two phenomena that reinforce one another.
Topic:: History, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

79. Taiwan’s Offshore Islands: Assessments Of Support For Integration

Author:: Kristian McGuire
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Kinmen County (金门县) and Lienchiang County (连江县; also referred to as Matsu (马祖)) are a crucial site of activity for cross-Strait relations. Over the last year, Beijing has renewed its calls for using the islands to promote “cross-Strait integrated development (两岸融合发展)” (Taiwan Affairs Office, September 12, 2023). It has also expended considerable effort pushing to integrate the islands, which sit just off the shore of Fujian Province, with its own economy through a range of commercial and infrastructural initiatives (China Brief, July 2, 2021). Meanwhile, politicians in Taiwan who support a return to greater engagement with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have put forward plans to deepen ties between the islands and the PRC, while Taipei has stressed national security concerns (Taipei Times, August 23, 2023; Mainland Affairs Council, June 21, 2022). China will want to see greater cross-Strait engagement following Taiwan’s elections on January 13. This is a very real possibility, as all candidates have expressed openness to allowing some degree of increased cross-Strait integration. As such, the outcome of the election could herald changes for the islands, potentially advancing the PRC’s influence over these two Taiwan constituencies. The islands’ ties with the PRC and recent developments on further integration since the pandemic are therefore important to consider.
Topic:: Engagement, Cross-Strait Relations, and Islands
Political Geography:: Taiwan and Asia

80. Xi Demands Fealty Despite Domestic And Foreign Woes

Author:: Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The Politburo held a “democratic life meeting (民主生活会)” on December 21–22, 2023, in which President Xi Jinping gave an internal, unpublished speech. According to accounts provided to the author by three officials at the rank of department head or above, Xi admitted that he had repeatedly postponed the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee (which according to Party norms should have taken place in October) because he “could not offer any viable solution for the nation’s problems.” Xi, who is general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and commander-in-chief, went on to blame the other 23 Politburo members and other senior cadres, not only for failing to give him good advice but also for demonstrating signs of disobedience. Reports of Xi’s frank admission of the dire straits of the Party’s leadership were widely circulated on social media. The official Xinhua read-out of the Politburo meeting also cited Xi as demanding “unison of thought” among top-tier officials. This entails adhering closely to the instructions of the “core leadership”—in other words, to Xi himself (Xinhua, December 25, 2023). The supreme leader raised the “two safeguards (两个维护),” a slogan that refers to “safeguarding the authority of comrade Xi Jinping as core of the party” and “safeguarding Xi Jinping Thought on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era.” President Xi also admonished his close advisors to “take a firm grip on the internal laws of developments [of issues]; accurately distinguish between events and trends, crises and opportunities, and benefits and harms … and effectively combat risks and take action on the basis of stability” (People’s Daily, December 23, 2023). This instruction tallies with caveats given by Xi throughout the past year, in which he has warned that China faces unprecedented challenges and that the party-state apparatus must ready itself to tackle “black swans and gray rhinos.”
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Leadership, Xi Jinping, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Banking
Political Geography:: China and Asia

81. CCP Ideological Indoctrination, Part 2: The New Plan for Training Party Cadres

Author:: John Dotson
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On December 29, 2023, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping addressed a gathering of People’s Republic of China (PRC) diplomatic personnel in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. He instructed his audience to compose a “diplomatic iron army (外交铁军)” representing China’s interests. Notably, Xi emphasized the need for correct political thinking: asserting that they must “persist in our revolution (坚持自我革命),” “be steadfast in political conviction (政治信念坚定),” and “build a sturdy ideological line of defense (筑牢思想防线)” about themselves in the performance of their work (Yang Guang Wang, December 30, 2023). These comments are the latest example of an extensive series of efforts by the CCP leadership in late 2023 to reinforce ideological regimentation within the Party. On October 16, 2023, the CCP Central Committee promulgated a new document titled the National Cadre Education and Training Plan (2023-2027) [全国干部教育培训规划 (2023-2027年)] (hereafter “2023 Cadre Plan”), which laid out extensive new requirements for ideological study on the part of CCP officials (PRC Government, October 16, 2023). This move had been signaled at a CCP Politburo meeting at the end of August, which was reportedly convened to deliberate on new draft documents related to ideological training for Party members. The official coverage of the August meeting emphasized that forthcoming Party directives would further scrutinize “political judgment (政治判断力)”—signifying loyalty and obedience to the central Party leadership—and “strengthen political gatekeeping (加强政治把关)” for cadre reliability (PRC Government, August 31, 2023).
Topic:: Ideology, Political Parties, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Indoctrination
Political Geography:: China and Asia

82. Xi’s New Year’s Speech Dismisses Difficulties

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On New Year’s Eve, a prerecorded address from Chinese President Xi Jinping was broadcast across the Party’s global network of official media outlets (Youtube, December 31, 2023). The speech is an annual tradition, delivered from behind a wooden desk in rhetoric that is at once paternalistic and triumphalist, in which Xi surveys the high points of the outgoing year and looks to the year ahead. The form of this year’s set-piece was no different, but the content departed from previous years in ways that are indicative of Xi’s shifting priorities, and the Party’s growing concerns about the state of the nation. The most significant section of the speech addressed the economic difficulties that China has weathered in the last year: “On the road ahead, trials and hardships [lit. ‘wind and rain’] will be the norm. Some enterprises are facing pressures, some of the masses are encountering difficulties finding jobs and meeting basic needs, and some places have hit by floods, typhoons, earthquakes, or other natural disasters (有风有雨是常态。一些企业面临经营压力，一些群众就业、生活遇到困难，一些地方发生洪涝、台风、地震等自然灾害).”
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Ideology, Xi Jinping, and Rhetoric
Political Geography:: China and Asia

83. China’s Anti-Corruption Efforts Gain Momentum in Finance and Healthcare

Author:: Alexis Brown
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: On September 27, Chinese President Xi Jinping presided over a meeting of the Politburo, where he announced the end of the current round of finance inspections but suggested that more were to follow (Xinhua, September 27). The authorities may have chosen to focus on financial corruption to coincide with the restructuring of financial regulators in March, in which a central finance commission was created to give the Party center more direct control over the finance sector. This move indicates that the Party has taken a greater interest in the sector. So far in 2023, China’s anti-corruption organs, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI, 中国共产党中央纪律检查委员会) and the National Supervisory Commission (NSC, 中华人民共和国国家监察委员会), have intensified investigations across both the healthcare and finance sectors. Authorities have investigated at least 180 hospital chiefs and 80 senior employees in financial institutions between January and early September. [1] By comparison, the CCDI and NSC only targeted 12 hospital leaders from 2019-2022 (CCDI). Through the anti-corruption campaigns, the party leadership is likely to bolster support among certain demographics, eliminate political opponents, and address some real instances of graft. However, due to the absence of robust institutions and transparency, systemic corruption will persist after the current drives wind down. The Party and state organs carry out anti-corruption in healthcare regularly, but in 2023 they have elevated the importance of this work. This is the first time the CCDI and NSC were involved in the National Health Commission’s annual conference on anti-corruption, where a national centralized campaign to crack down on graft was launched. The campaign will continue until mid-2024 (National Health Commission, July 21). [2] One motivation may be to address public frustrations with healthcare from the COVID-19 pandemic. There was an uproar over incidents like hospitals turning away ER patients for not having negative Covid tests and testing centers generating huge profits but producing fraudulent test results (Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council, December 9 2022 Credit China, December 23 2022). Another reason may be to combat illegal healthcare charges in order to boost household consumption, one of the government’s top economic targets for 2023 (Xinhua, March 14).
Topic:: Corruption, Finance, Public Policy, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:: China and Asia

84. China’s Role in the Middle East

Author:: John Calabrese and Yun Sun
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss China’s role in the Middle East amid rising regional tensions and growing threats to both international security and the global economy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Security, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

85. The Party and the People: Chinese Politics in the 21st Century

Author:: Orhan Çifçi
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: In his book, The Party and the People: Chinese Politics in the 21st Century, Bruce Dickson, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University, thoroughly scrutinizes China’s domestic political system and the inner structure of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Dickson largely limits his primer to the post-Mao period, with each of the book’s sections answering specific research questions: “What Keeps the Party in Power?”, “How Are Leaders Chosen?”, “How Are Policies Made?”, “Does China Have a Civil Society?”, “Do Political Protests Threaten Political Stability?”, “Why Does the Party Fear Religion?”, “How Nationalistic Is China?” and “Will China Become Democratic?”. Each question he seeks answers to sheds light on the relationship between the CCP and Chinese society. Dickson argues that the CCP has exercised unopposed authority throughout the country since 1949 despite many elite conflicts, economic catastrophes and social unrests. Nevertheless, the party has not always resorted to repressive methods to stay in power. Rather, it is the author’s main argument that the main survival policy is the party’s ability to be responsive to the demands of Chinese people. For Dickson, the repression-responsiveness dichotomy is the core strategy that made it possible for the CCP to rule China as a single party for decades.
Topic:: Politics, History, Book Review, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: China and Asia

86. Japan’s Border Measures during Covid-19: How the Crisis Shaped ‘Others’ to Protect the ‘Stability of Self’

Author:: Vuslat Nur Şahin Temel and Zhao Xiru
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The Covid-19 pandemic has prompted countries to implement a wide range of specific cross-border security measures. The fear and anxiety induced by this crisis have rapidly expanded and contracted countries’ understanding of ‘self’ and ‘other’. This study examines Japan’s shift from liberal pre- Covid-19 border policies to the most stringent border closure measures among the G7 countries during the pandemic. In this study, we argue that the pandemic-induced fear increased anxiety in Japan’s public health safety identity, rapidly reshaping the conceptualization of the ‘self’ and ‘other’ in crisis scenarios. This shift aligns with Japan’s historical narrative of combating unprecedented threats to public health.
Topic:: Borders, Public Health, Human Security, COVID-19, Isolation, Ontological Security, and Anxiety
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

87. The Future of the Belt and Road in Europe: How China’s Connectivity Project is Being Reconfigured across the Old Continent – and What It Means for the Euro-Atlantic Alliance

Author:: Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has entered the twilight zone in the old continent, following a deterioration of bilateral relations between the EU member states and China over the last years. Italy’s official exit from the BRI at the end of 2023 was a further blow to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy. Yet, the BRI in Europe is being reconfigured rather than being terminated. In Western Europe, the BRI is moving away from physical infrastructure projects and investment in industrial assets – the latter being increasingly protected from Chinese takeovers by both national and EU legislation – to financial and monetary connectivity. This shift is welcomed by various European actors, including some policymakers at the national level, eurozone institutions and major banks. Concurrently, most of Eastern European countries continue to promote BRI projects and seek to attract Chinese investments, suggesting that there is a two-speed Europe when it comes to China, both in terms of geography and sectors.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Currency
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

88. China's Trade Strategies and Korea-China Cooperation Plans

Author:: Seung Shin Lee, Sang Baek Hyun, Su Yeob Na, and Young Sun Kim
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: As uncertainties in the global trade environment expand, China's trade strategy is changing, and these changes are expected to have a significant impact on our trade environment with China. This paper analyzed China's policies on new trade issues such as supply chain reorganization, digital trade, climate change response and proposed policy implications.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Trade, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

89. Korea-India Economic Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Era

Author:: Jeong Gon Kim, Kyunghoon Kim, Jonghun Pek, Yoo Jin Nam, and Wondeuk Cho
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: With the geopolitical and geoeconomic importance of the Indo-Pacific region in the spotlight, India's strategic value has come to the fore. The Korean government has included cooperation with India as a key task under its Indo-Pacific Strategy. This article aims to contribute to the establishment of economic cooperation with India from a medium- to long-term strategic perspective. Accordingly, this article analyzes the strategic changes of major countries towards India and India's response strategies, and the emerging agendas of economic cooperation between India and major countries. Lastly, this article proposes policy directions and key agendas for Korea-India economic cooperation.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: India, Asia, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

90. Assessing ASEAN Economic Integration Progress and South Korea’s Approach Focusing on TBT and SPS

Author:: Sungil Kwak
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: TBT (Technical Barriers to Trade) and SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures) have two attributes. They act as barriers to trade expansion by protecting producers, but their importance has grown in terms of consumer protection measures after the COVID-19 pandemic. Rather than eliminating related regulations, achieving harmonization within the ASEAN region can simultaneously serve two objectives: expanding trade between South Korea and ASEAN and improving consumer protection. We assess the level of regional economic integration by measuring regulatory distances among ASEAN member states. We also measure regulatory distances between South Korea and ASEAN, and between Japan and ASEAN. We estimate the impact of ASEAN's TBT and SPS on the export performance of countries exporting goods to the ASEAN region.
Topic:: Regulation, Exports, Trade, ASEAN, COVID-19, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

91. Japan’s Supply Chain Policy and its Implications for South Korea

Author:: Gyu-Pan Kim
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This WEB paper analyzed Japan's supply chain policy in line with the implementation of Japan's Economic Security Promotion Act in May 2022, and presented policy implications such as supply chain cooperation between Korea and Japan. First, this paper analyzed the US-led reorganization of the global supply chain and the Japanese government's response to it. In particular, the Japanese government's economic security policy was evaluated from the perspective of how Japan approaches the US-led the global supply chain reorganization. Second, the Japanese government's supply chain policy was analyzed, focusing on the supply chain policy for some critical materials under the Economic Security Promotion Act. Finally, this paper proposed ways for Korea and Japan to cooperate in reshaping the global supply chain led by the United States.
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

92. Korea’s Global Value Chain Strategies amid Rising Trade Disputes

Author:: Won Seok Choi
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This article explores the challenges and transformations in global economic governance, particularly in the context of China's rise, widening trade disputes, and the retreat of globalization. It discusses the reorganization of global supply chains and their implications for Korea, focusing on the policies of key countries like the United States, the European Union (EU), and China towards stabilizing and reorganizing supply chains, with an emphasis on transitioning to a green industrial structure and improving domestic industrial competitiveness, particularly in the semiconductor and secondary battery industries. Accordingly, this article analyzes Korea's dependency on imports for semiconductors and secondary batteries, noting significant increases in imports and the diversification of import sources. The analysis reveals Korea's high import dependence on specific countries for critical goods and materials, emphasizing the importance of supply chain cooperation with countries that have global export competitiveness.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Governance, Trade, Industry, and Value Chains
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

93. EU's “Open Strategic Autonomy” and its Implications for Korea

Author:: Youngook Jang
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This brief explores the shifting global trade landscape characterized by weakening globalization and rising protectionism, exacerbated by events such as the US-China trade disputes, COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It discusses how these factors have prompted a trend towards 'Open Strategic Autonomy' (OSA) in the European Union (EU), as evidenced by newly suggested industrial and trade policies. The EU's experiences during the pandemic and energy dependence on Russia have emphasized the need for resilient supply chains. The analysis draws from Jang et al. (2023) to examine how the EU's OSA has evolved in response to these changes, offering insights for policy implications for Korea.
Topic:: European Union, Trade, Supply Chains, Strategic Autonomy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

94. Analyzing South Korea’s Semiconductor Industry: Trade Dynamics and Global Position

Author:: Hyung-gon Jeong
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: U.S. sanctions on China's semiconductor industry are causing major shifts in the global supply chain, affecting South Korea's industry due to its reliance on Chinese manufacturing. The Biden administration's increased sanctions, combined with global trends towards semiconductor self-sufficiency, are putting South Korea's semiconductor position at risk. Countries such as the U.S., China, and Japan are building up their domestic semiconductor industries, potentially affecting South Korea's position in the global market. Deeply integrated with China, Korean companies, face the challenge of reducing this dependence and adapting to the evolving supply chain landscape. This paper examines the import and export trends of the South Korean semiconductor industry over the last five years to assess its global standing, identify challenges, and suggest strategic directions. Using data from the Korea Customs Service from 2019 to 2023, the study analyzes trade patterns and supply chain configurations within South Korea's semiconductor industry. The industry is divided into six main categories and 33 subcategories, based on the analysis of 381 semiconductor-related items categorized under the Harmonized System at the 10-digit level. This detailed classification allows for an in-depth examination of trade trends, supply chain structures, and associated risks within the South Korean semiconductor industry. Moreover, this research uses the classification method described and UN Comtrade statistics to create a dataset on global semiconductor trade. This dataset is used to analyze the international presence of the South Korean semiconductor industry and its market shares in China across different segments.
Topic:: Trade, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

95. North Korea’s 2023 Trade with China: Analysis and Forecasts

Author:: Jangho Choi and Yoojeong Choi
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This article analyzes North Korea-China trade trends and statistics in 2023 to evaluate the extent of North Korea's trade normalization and its performance. North Korea's trade with China increased by more than 120% compared to the previous year as the country declared a COVID-19 Endemic and gradually eased border controls, but did not recover to 2018-19 levels, the year before the outbreak of COVID-19. Imports to China recorded 2.00 billion, 124.1% higher than the 0.89 billion in 2022. North Korea's imports from China in 2023 are estimated to be the maximum achievable given the lack of a full resumption of over-land trade. However, as the negative impact of UN sanctions on the North Korean economy is ongoing, making it difficult to normalize industrial production. North Korea mainly imported raw materials for processing trade (textile and garment raw materials), staple foods (rice and sugar), agricultural materials (fertilizer), and construction materials from China in 2023. North Korea’s exports to China stood at 0.29 billion, up 118.4% from 0.13 billion in 2023. Exports remain at the 16.9% of the level before the tightening of UN sanctions on North Korea, as the country has failed to diversify its products and expand exports of major export items. Exports were highly dependent on specific products, wigs and false eyelashes, a labor-intensive industry, accounting for 57.1% of total exports. In spite of increasing wigs export, North Korea failed to further expand its amount and diversify the export items in the second half of the year. According to the analysis of trade statistics, the main goals of North Korea's 2023 US foreign economic policy are: (1) resuming smuggling trade in textiles and clothing, (2) building irrigation canals in preparation for summer floods, (3) implementing state-led grain distribution, (4) building living houses in a rural area, and (5) increasing metal production for Russian arms exports. Despite the increase in imports from China in the transition to the coronavirus pandemic, it is difficult to say that it has yet led to the recovery of industrial production and economic development. The future of North Korea's trade with the rest of the world in 2024 will be determined by whether North Korea fully opens its borders and improves its relations with China. In 2024, both North Korea's exports and imports are expected to be slightly higher than in 2023. North Korea's exports are unlikely to increase significantly, as North Korea-Russia military cooperation is expected to continue and China is likely to maintain its checks on the growing Sino-Russian alignment. Increased imports will lead to a larger trade deficit, but it will be within North Korea's ability to manage for one to two years.
Topic:: Economics, Border Control, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

96. Ensuring Energy Security and Carbon Neutrality: Implications for Korea

Author:: Jinyoung Moon, Seung Kwon Na, Sunghee Lee, and Eunmi Kim
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The international community faces two major challenges: securing stable energy supplies and achieving carbon neutrality. Concerns about energy security that aroused due to the oil crises in the 1970s are no longer limited to the stable supply of fossil fuels. The concept of energy security is changing in line with the need for transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. As energy prices have soared due to the recent Russia-Ukraine war, major countries are actively pursuing related policies and external cooperation to diversify their energy supply chain and decarbonize their economic structures. In order to appropriately respond to these challenges, continuous efforts are needed to gradually reduce the use of fossil fuels and in crease the use of clean energy in the medium to long-term. In particular, as the proportion of power generation from variable renewable energy sources increases, maintaining the stability of the power grid becomes a more important task. Demand for minerals essential for clean energy related technologies is expected to increase, however, production of these minerals is concentrated in specific countries. Major concerns related to carbon neutrality or clean energy investment include whether sufficient investment is being made, whether funds are being directed to countries or sectors in urgent need of financial support, and how to induce private investment through public funds. Accordingly, our study analyzed energy security from the perspective of energy transition, and derived key issues and notable cases of international cooperation to ensure energy security and carbon neutrality. Based on our findings, we suggested policy implications for Korea.
Topic:: Climate Change, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

97. Multidimensional Impact of COVID-19 on Education and Implications on Inclusive Recovery

Author:: Gee Young Oh
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This report aims to present the findings of Oh et al. (2023), which analyzes the post-pandemic inequality levels in developing countries and derives policy implications for Korea's international development cooperation (IDC) to help reduce inequality, especially in the education sector. The impact of COVID-19 on education is multidimensional, with varying levels of heterogeneity across countries, regions, households, and individual stakeholders, including students, parents, and teachers. To comprehensively understand this multidimensionality, the study compares situations in two countries to explore inter- and intra-country educational disparities. After identifying such multidimensionality, the study derives policy implications on how Korea’s IDC can better target post-pandemic inequality in education.
Topic:: Development, Education, International Cooperation, Inequality, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

98. Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait

Author:: Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Security, Deterrence, and Cross-Strait Relations
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

99. War with China: A View from Early 2024

Author:: Marco J. Lyons
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: US defense analysts are overdue for a fundamental reassessment of the strategic factors that would shape a future Sino-American war. The United States may lower the overall risk of sparking a war between Washington and Beijing by more formally committing advanced US capabilities in intelligence collection and targeting, long-range fires, and theater air and missile defense to Japan and South Korea and by initiating bilateral planning to introduce such capabilities in Taiwan in the future. The US defense community still lacks a broad and integrated national strategy for successfully managing the rivalry with China. A clear-eyed assessment of a possible United States-China war could lead to a national strategy.
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Taiwan, Asia, United States of America, and South China Sea

100. Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as a Pacing Challenge – 2023 PLA Conference

Author:: George R. Shatzer and Joshua Arostegui
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,” featured presentations on PRC global and regional strategy, and the PLA’s enabling role by experts from a wide range of academic, media, and government agencies and organizations. The conference papers better defined the notion of the PLA as a pacing challenge as evidenced by PRC strategies and activities in various regions to build a much stronger appreciation of how PLA operations in these locations matter to each other and the whole of the PRC’s broader national strategy. The event also included presentations on Chinese military deterrence and potential justifications for a cross-Strait conflict following US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. Specific topics included the PRC’s acceleration of military reforms and its extending reach; how the PRC can use various regional crises to justify military action against Taiwan; countering PRC military strength in Northeast Asia; and the PRC’s growing economic and security engagements with Latin America, Africa, South Asia, Russia, and Europe.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS