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Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Political Geography Asia Publication Year within 5 Years

1. The NewSpace market: Capital, control, and commercialization

Author:
Robert Murray
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Commercial opportunities in space-based technologies are expanding rapidly. From satellite communications and Earth observation to space tourism and asteroid mining, the potential for businesses to capitalize on these emerging technologies is vast and known as “NewSpace.”1 The NewSpace model is important for governments to understand because the dual-use nature of space, specifically its growing commercialization, will influence the types of space-based technologies that nations may leverage, and consequently, impact their national security paradigms. By capitalizing on the private sector’s agility and combining it with the essential research efforts and customer role played by the public sector, the NewSpace industry can play a critical function in addressing current and future national security challenges through public-private codevelopment. As the NewSpace industry expands, the role of government is evolving from being the primary developer and operator of space assets to facilitating their commercialization, while still prioritizing key advancements. US and allied governments can capitalize on this competitive landscape by strategically investing in areas that align with their national security objectives. However, it is crucial for them to first understand and adapt to their changing roles within this dynamic environment. Indeed, the benefits of the burgeoning NewSpace industry extend beyond the United States. International collaboration and competition in this area can lead to faster technological advancements and economic gains. The global NewSpace landscape is driving down costs, increasing access to space, and fostering innovation that can improve not only economic well-being, but also impact national security models. To that end, this memo will examine the broad state of the space market, discuss the industry drivers, and propose recommendations for US and allied policymakers as they consider future government investments in those enabling space-based activities that support wider national security ambitions.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, National Security, Science and Technology, European Union, Space, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Canada, Asia, and United States of America

2. Impact of economic sanctions on net commodity-producing and net commodity-consuming countries

Author:
Sergio R. Vale and Eduardo Viola
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine has had a marked economic impact. However, since Russia is a net producer of important commodities, the impact of sanctions on its economy was less than expected. But what would happen if there was a war involving a country that was a net importer of commodities? In the case of a possible China-US conflict over Taiwan, the impact on the world economy would be different, with a deeper recession around the world, but the impact on the Brazilian economy would still be positive on account of the possibility that would remain of agricultural exports to China.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Commodities, and Exports
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3. Trade Balances and International Competitiveness in Cyber-physical, Digital Task-intensive, ICT Capital-intensive and Traditional Industries

Author:
Alexandra Bykova and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
In this report, we analyse the international competitiveness of the EU in four industry groups over the period 1995-2018. The groups are delineated by specific factor intensities, where these intensities are assessed from digital tasks performed by labour services and ICT capital stocks. The EU’s positions relating to trade balances, revealed comparative advantages and unit value ratios are assessed relative to its main competitors, such as the US, China, Japan and South Korea. The trade specialisation patterns confirm EU advantages in traditional industries, which still represent the largest part of global trade, and in the group of digital task-intensive industries. In the cyber-physical group of industries, which are characterised by both high digital task and ICT capital intensities, the EU records a trade deficit, although this has been receding in recent years. Competitiveness indicators depict heterogeneity among EU countries. The loss of international competitiveness for some technology front-runners is a worrying sign. On the positive side, however, a reduction in trade deficits or an improvement in product quality and market shares is evident for certain EU countries, especially in the Central European region.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Trade, Digitalization, and International Competition
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

4. China as an International Lender of Last Resort

Author:
Sebastian Horn, Bradley C. Parks, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China’s overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into China’s growing role in the global financial system. A key finding is that the global swap line network put in place by the People’s Bank of China is increasingly used as a financial rescue mechanism, with more than USD 170 billion in liquidity support extended to crisis countries, including repeated rollovers of swaps coming due. The swaps bolster gross reserves and are mostly drawn by distressed countries with low liquidity ratios. In addition, we show that Chinese state-owned banks and enterprises have given out an additional USD 70 billion in rescue loans for balance of payments support. Taken together, China’s overseas bailouts correspond to more than 20 percent of total IMF lending over the past decade and bailout amounts are growing fast. However, China’s rescue loans differ from those of established international lenders of last resort in that they (i) are opaque, (ii) carry relatively high interest rates, and (iii) are almost exclusively targeted to debtors of China's Belt and Road Initiative. These findings have implications for the international financial and monetary architecture, which is becoming more multipolar, less institutionalized, and less transparent.
Topic:
Debt, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

5. Rewriting the Future of America’s Maritime Industry to Compete with China

Author:
Michael Roberts
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
For decades, companies outside the United States have dominated the international commercial shipping and shipbuilding industries. At various times since World War II, Japan, Korea, and certain European countries have been able to leverage their export-driven manufacturing economies and government support to become world leaders in commercial shipbuilding and major players in international shipping. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has taken that strategy to a new level and now produces more than half the large commercial ships delivered annually, controls scores of seaports in dozens of foreign countries, and owns almost one-fifth of the global commercial fleet. American commercial shipbuilders and US flag shipping companies have long faced fierce headwinds in international markets and have seen support from the US government dwindle. The US reset its maritime policies in the 1990s when America was the sole superpower and the security benefits of a robust commercial maritime industry were in doubt. By the end of 2022, Americans owned only 3 percent of the 55,000 ships in the global commercial fleet, including just 178 large US flag cargo ships, 85 of which are committed to international trade (see tables 1 and 2 below for a breakdown of US and global commercial fleets). The emergence of the PRC as a challenger to America’s global leadership has forced sweeping changes in US policy and spending priorities to boost America’s economic and military security. This report recommends that the US reform its policies governing America’s commercial maritime industries because shipping and shipbuilding are core components of national power. These industries remain especially crucial in the twenty-first century, as international trade is more important to a healthy American economy today than ever before. Yet Americans have almost no control over the maritime logistics systems that feed the US economy. The pandemic-induced supply chain crisis showed how much damage can be done when those systems break down.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, National Security, Maritime, Industry, Domestic Policy, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

6. China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Successful economic strategy or failed soft-power tool?

Author:
Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is part of China’s efforts to integrate its neighbouring countries into its economic sphere, thus increasing China’s security in its immediate neighbourhood while facing an increasingly hostile international environment due to its rivalry with the US. In reality, the BRI has evolved into an umbrella term for various infrastructure and development projects with no unified object or strategy. The projects should, in principle, increase goodwill towards China, and correspondingly boost its influence, but in practice they are mainly aimed at economic benefit. The results of the BRI, especially as a soft-power tool, are ambiguous. Its ideational basis is thin, consisting mainly of China’s critique towards the “hegemony of the West”. This reduces the BRI to a hollow slogan with little appeal apart from the pragmatic gains. However, the BRI is here to stay for the duration of Xi Jinping’s rule because China’s foreign policy is often driven by prestige. The BRI is enshrined in the Communist Party’s Constitution in order to both add weight to the initiative and to increase the Party’s prestige with its success, modest as it may be.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

7. New Dynamism in ASEAN and East Asia: The Role of the RCEP as a ‘Living’ Agreement

Author:
Shandre Mugan Thangavelu, Fukunari Kimura, and Dionisius Narjoko
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This policy brief highlights the importance of maintaining open regionalism and economic and regional integration for sustainable and inclusive regional and global growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia. With rising global uncertainties and global value chain (GVC) disruptions, the region requires a new economic and social agenda beyond trading arrangements, and the alignment of global, regional, and domestic policies and structural issues. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is expected to provide a new institutional framework under the built-in institutional feature (Chapter 18) of the agreement.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

8. The Indo-Pacific Partnership and Digital Trade Rule Setting: Policy Proposals

Author:
Lurong Cheh
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The idea of the Indo-Pacific was borne from a global trend that has (re)oriented the centre of the world’s economic gravity to the East. Accelerating digital transformation to harness gains from technology are in countries’ common interests. The launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity tends to supplement economic benefits to the Indo-Pacific. Becoming more deeply involved in the digital economy will require Indo-Pacific members to commit to new international norms on digital trade, of which trade liberalisation of electronic transmissions, free flow of data with trust, cybersecurity, and intellectual property rights protection must be prioritised.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Indo-Pacific

9. Japan and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

Author:
Mie Oba
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper aims to clarify the role of Japan in the process leading up to the establishment of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). While emphasising that respect for the centrality of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was a principle of RCEP, Japan played a leading role in the process of RCEP negotiations. For Japan, RCEP is one of the fruits of its strategy in East Asia/Asia-Pacific that began the mid-1990s to protect and increase the interests and advantages of Japanese business and retain Japan’s political leverage in the region. When substantial negotiations for RCEP began in 2013, its importance for Japan was secondary to other free trade agreements (FTAs) including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, China–Japan–Korea FTA, and Japan–European Union FTA. However, the Government of Japan and the business community had set a lot of economic and strategic goals in promoting RCEP. After the withdrawal of the United States (US) from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, RCEP was seen as an essential framework for establishing a rules-based regional order in the Indo-Pacific region. Although it was after India’s withdrawal from the RCEP negotiations, Japan further emphasised the importance of RCEP as the measure to sustain and foster the rule-based regional order and simultaneously pursued the conclusion of negotiations and the establishment of high-level rules, achieving some success. Ultimately, the havoc brought about by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the sense of crisis in the traditional liberal international order caused by the intensifying strategic competition between the US and China, drove the conclusion of RCEP. RCEP will be increasingly important for economic order in Japan and Asia in the coming years. Ironically, as the strategic competition between the US and China escalates and leads to a surge in protectionism, the economic and strategic importance of RCEP – an FTA that incorporates China – is becoming more significant as a measure to counter unilateralism and protectionism. In addition, RCEP needs elements that address globalisation’s adverse effects and pitfalls, in areas such as the environment, labour rights, and a reduction in the disparity between the rich and poor.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

10. RCEP Services Liberalisation: Key Features and Implications

Author:
Ramonette B. Serafica and Intan Murnira Ramli
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The Trade in Services Chapter of the RCEP Agreement establishes the rules for the progressive liberalisation of trade in the region and sets out regulatory disciplines to mitigate barriers to competition. Considered the most significant feature of the RCEP agreement compared to other FTAs of ASEAN is the scheduling of market access commitments using the negative list approach. Thus, an immediate challenge for members that initially adopted the positive list is the transition to the negative list scheduling approach. Furthermore, members will need to implement competitive and robust regulations in liberalising services. Developing countries, especially LDCs, might also face capacity constraints to fully take advantage of the market access given by the RCEP partners.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Liberalism, and Progressivism
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

11. International Production Network in the Next Generation and the Role of RCEP

Author:
Mitsuyo Ando, Fukunari Kimura, and Kenta Yamanouchi
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper attempts to discuss the potential role of RCEP from the perspective of two kinds of international division of labor, i.e., machinery international production networks (IPNs) and digital-related services trade. To consider the possible contribution of RCEP to the widening and deepening of IPNs, we first provide an overview of machinery IPNs in ASEAN and East Asia by employing international trade data, a value-added based index for global value chain (GVC) activities using international input–output tables, and a gravity equation exercise. Then, we focus on trade in two global innovator services – information and communication technology (ICT) services and other business services exports – to foresee the future of the new international division of labour and highlights some policy issues. RCEP should be an evolving, living one. In terms of liberalisation and facilitation as well as international rule-making, which cover the whole region, RCEP is expected to revise and upgrade the contents to support the dynamic international division of labour in East Asia. At the same time, RCEP may play an important role in reducing policy risks due to ad hoc trade policies based on political intension and defending the rules-based trading regime for the regional economy.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

12. Potential Impact of RCEP and Structural Transformation on Cambodia

Author:
Shandre Mugan Thangavelu and Vutha Hing
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the potential impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on the Cambodian economy in terms of trade, output growth, and employment. It also provides quantitative (structural gravity model estimation and simulation) and qualitative trade policy evaluation in terms of exports, output, and the structural transformation of the economy in global and regional value chains. The results highlight the importance of RCEP for the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery and the structural transformation of the Cambodian economy. The paper also provides key policy recommendations to fully maximise the benefits of RCEP for Cambodia for inclusive and sustainable growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Asia and Cambodia

13. The Implications of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) for Asian Regional Architecture

Author:
Shiro Armstrong and Peter Drysdale
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
East Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into force in 2022 as the world’s largest free trade agreement. RCEP was concluded, signed and brought into force in the face of major international uncertainty and is a significant boost to the global trading system. RCEP brings Australia, China, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand into the same agreement with the ten member ASEAN group at its centre. It keeps markets open and updates trade and investment rules in East Asia, a major centre of global economic activity, at a time of rising protectionism when the WTO itself is under threat. The agreement builds on ASEAN’s free trade agreements and strengthens ASEAN centrality. One of the pillars of RCEP is an economic cooperation agenda which has its antecedents in ASEAN’s approach to bringing along its least developed members and builds on the experience of capacity building in APEC and technical cooperation under the ASEAN Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement. There is an opportunity to create a framework that facilitates deeper economic cooperation that involves experience-sharing, extending RCEP’s rules and membership at the same time as strengthening political cooperation. The paper suggests some areas that might be best suited to cooperation — that is confidence and trust building instead of or before negotiation — and discusses how non-members such as India may be engaged and the membership expanded. Options such as multilateralising provisions and becoming a platform for policy convergence and coordinating unilateral reforms are canvassed.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Architecture
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

14. Restrictiveness of RCEP Rules of Origin: Implications for Global Value Chains in East Asia

Author:
Archanun Kohpaiboon and Juthatip Jongwanich
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This chapter aims to examine the restrictiveness of rules of origin (RoO) in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and other key multilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) in East Asia with a view to facilitating the operations of existing global value chains (GVCs). The analysis begins with dissecting PSRs in the RoO Chapter in these FTAs and quantifying them. The key finding is that product-specific rules in RCEP are the most flexible compared to the other multilateral FTAs and more facilitative to GVC operations. This is driven by RCEP-specific features, such as high intra-member trade and the member coverage. The main policy inference is that a full cumulation clause is needed in RCEP to allow a regional value content alternative to be in full effect. Harmonisation in RoO provision across these multilateral FTAs remains a challenge for ongoing negotiation. Monitoring the dynamics of RoO as well as the FTA utilisation is needed so that these multilateral FTAs could be a true stepping stone for trade liberalisation in the broader World Trade Organization multilateral trading system.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

15. Centrality and Community: ASEAN in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Author:
Soo Yeon Kim
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) role in the formation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement. The RCEP project proceeded as trade governance has shifted from the multilateral trade regime under the World Trade Organization to free trade agreements and where the geopolitics of Asia has cast a shadow on the progress of regional integration efforts. The analysis in this paper focuses on ASEAN centrality, both as a concept and practice, in influencing the launch and progress of RCEP. Conceptually, ASEAN centrality is about the capacity of the 10-member group to help launch negotiations for the RCEP agreement and to shape its provisions for governing trade. In practice, the RCEP agreement consolidates and significantly unravels the numerous overlapping trade agreements between ASEAN, 38 in all between individual ASEAN members and its five RCEP partners, Australia, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand. The paper also examines the relationship between the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and RCEP. RCEP provides for further tariff liberalisation between ASEAN members and its five RCEP partners and thus expands the zone of preferential treatment for goods exported from ASEAN and other RCEP members. RCEP also consolidates rules of origin requirements under one agreement, providing for diagonal cumulation and common rules of cumulation for agreement partners. The RCEP provisions can greatly facilitate production and trade along regional supply chains, thus accelerating the progress of the AEC as a single market and production base. Moving forwards, RCEP and ASEAN’s place in it, is likely to be shaped by challenges and opportunities from the Comprehensive and Progressive Transpacific Partnership and the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) initiative. The ASEAN members with overlapping membership in the IPEF and RCEP will be pivotal in determining areas of cooperation. Regional integration will thus continue to be shaped by ASEAN centrality, and its progress will shape the ASEAN community.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

16. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Economic Backgrounds of ASEAN and Its Dialogue Partners

Author:
Keita Oikawa, Fusanori Iwasaki, and Shujiro Urata
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
We overview the economic backgrounds of the countries participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations and two Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Dialogue Partners – the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) – to understand their economic relationships before the signing of the RCEP and their economic interests in the RCEP. We discover that the 16 countries participating in RCEP negotiations vary in terms of economic size, income level, growth pattern, share of trade in the economy, and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Additionally, both lower- and higher-income ASEAN Member States (AMS) have received a large amount of FDI, in contrast to Japan and the Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea), which have seen more FDI outflows from their countries than inflows. In terms of bilateral FDI inflows and outflows, as a centre for regional FDI, Singapore attracts FDI from developed countries (including the US and the EU) and reinvests it in India and other AMS. As an FDI hub, Singapore promotes liberalised regional markets to attract advanced country investors. By examining bilateral trade relationships, we find that as the centre of manufacturing in the world, ASEAN and China have participated in international production networks that also include Japan and Korea since 2000. Japan and Korea have maintained competitiveness in intermediate goods in the region’s production networks, while China notably exports final products to the US and the EU. Amongst the 16 countries participating in RCEP negotiations, India has not had a significant presence in the production networks. Indeed, India has expanded its bilateral trade deficit with China, which probably caused India to withdraw from RCEP negotiations to protect its manufacturing industry. Simulation results of the impacts of the RCEP, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (Global Trade Analysis Project model), show that the countries participating in RCEP negotiations – particularly the less developed AMS – would gain greatly from lowering services trade costs and investment liberalisation. India would also gain significantly from the RCEP. In contrast, countries not participating in RCEP negotiations (the US and the EU) would experience small negative impacts of the RCEP through trade diversion effects.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

17. Trade Facilitation in RCEP Countries

Author:
Weixiang Wang and Shandre Mugan Thangavelu
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The trade facilitation under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is critical for regional trade and economic cooperation amongst the 15 member countries. This chapter examines the trade facilitation under RCEP using the available datasets on the trade facilitation index and compares the current trends in trade facilitation across RCEP countries in terms of four dimensions: the World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement, digital trade streamlining, ease of doing business, and trade logistics performance. The study finds that RCEP countries have improved significantly in trade facilitation measures, but they vary across the countries. For example, China should further enhance its performance in cross-border paperless trade, whilst the Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries should improve their performance in the documentary compliance of trade, the infrastructure of trade, and trade logistics performance.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

18. Comparison of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Other Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)

Author:
Innwon Park
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study evaluates the desirability of RCEP by comparing it with other mega-lateral FTAs. Evaluating the member-specific scale effects of the FTAs, we find that RCEP will generate significantly larger gains compared with the CPTPP. Evaluation of the provision-specific depth effects of RCEP suggests the possibility of positive gains but these gains may not be significant compared with those derived from the CPTPP. The existing CGE model analyses reveal that RCEP will generate greater gains than the CPTPP. RCEP will be more desirable for China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea and the estimated gains for ASEAN will notably increase as the model explicitly specifies the diagonal ROO cumulation scheme. Considering the sequence of implementing FTAs, we find that the CPTPP will generate greater gains for dual members, but the marginal gains enjoyed by RCEP members will not be substantial.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Free Trade, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

19. Australia’s Interests in East Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Author:
Shiro Armstrong
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement was seen as important for Australia economically and politically from its inception. RCEP economies account for roughly two-thirds of Australia’s total trade and being part of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led initiative that progressed broader East Asian economic integration was consistent with the structure of Australia’s trade interests and with Australia’s support for the multilateral trading system. Australia has a track record of pursuing regional cooperation that supports multilateral trade and for supporting regional integration that is outward oriented. RCEP became more important economically, politically, and strategically throughout its negotiations. It furthered East Asian economic integration that avoided fragmentation but also to entrench the ASEAN Economic Community project. Concluding RCEP took on greater importance and urgency as a ballast against the rising protectionism globally in the latter half of 2010. The ASEAN–Australia–New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) included an economic cooperation agenda focused on capacity building that was seen as a success for its members and shaped Australia’s approach and support towards economic cooperation being a pillar of RCEP. Negotiations for RCEP were chaired and led by Indonesia and ASEAN. Australia played a proactive role in pushing for high standards – credible market access commitments and new rules – in negotiations. Australia was one of the RCEP member countries that was also negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in parallel. The interest in the TPP was to keep the United States productively engaged in the region and to further rule-making and liberalisation amongst the TPP members. Having overlapping membership between the TPP and RCEP would mean that there was less chance of significant divergence or inconsistencies between them, although the approach differed. The deterioration of Australia’s economic and political relationship with China makes the RCEP framework potentially more important for facilitating the rebuilding of trust and confidence.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia, Australia, and ASEAN

20. Changes in Trade and Investment Policies in Thailand and the Implications for Medium-term Growth

Author:
Archanun Kohpaiboon and Juthatip Jongwanich
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
his paper addresses the noticeable changes in trade and investment policies in Thailand in the new millennium and assesses their impact. These changes began with trade policy changes from the World Trade Organization to free trade agreement (FTA)-induced liberalisation, followed by changes in investment policies, all of which are to boost firms’ productivity and medium-term growth. Our results suggest that the policy changes are yet to produce the output the government expects. The signed FTAs’ impact on trade has been limited so far and has occurred selectively on certain product lines, as did the FTA-induced direct investment. Similarly, changes in investment policies had the impact of enticing direct investment but this varied across investors’ nationalities. The impact on firm productivity is also limited and found only for investment promotion policies. Our analysis highlights the role of traditional tools, i.e. trade openness, research and development, and skills upgrading, in fostering firm productivity. Whilst FTAs and investment promotion could be used as a catalyst for firms to enhance productivity, other supporting factors are also needed.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Investment, Free Trade, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

21. What Determines Interfirm Trade Credit? Empirical Evidence from the ASEAN

Author:
Sasidaran Gopalan and Ketan Reddy
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper empirically examines the link between the heterogeneity of firms and their probability of obtaining interfirm trade credit in Asia, with a specific focus on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc of economies. In doing so, the paper investigates the following three issues: to what extent firm size plays a role in obtaining trade credit, to what degree a firm’s integration into global value chains affects its probability of obtaining trade credit, and the impact of agglomeration on firms’ likelihood of obtaining trade credit.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Trade, Global Value Chains, and Credit
Political Geography:
Asia and ASEAN

22. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and Digital Trade in Southeast Asia

Author:
Andreyka Natalegawa and Gregory B. Poling
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In October 2021, the Biden administration announced the development of an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) with partner nations to “define our shared objectives around trade facilitation, standards for the digital economy and technology, supply chain resiliency, decarbonization and clean energy, infrastructure, worker standards, and other areas of shared interest.” Details on the framework are still being worked out, but it now seems that those six areas of focus have been distilled into four negotiating “pillars.” Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Sarah Bianchi said in early February that these would include “fair and resilient trade, supply chain resilience, infrastructure and decarbonization, and tax and anticorruption.” The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will likely lead negotiations on the first, while it appears that the Commerce Department will take the lead on the other three. The details of each pillar will be worked out in the months ahead, but the Biden administration is certain to face challenges and trade-offs across each, given the diversity of economies and political constraints across the region. USTR has said the trade pillar will be “high-ambition” and include binding commitments. But this will be complicated by the fact that the administration plans to roll out the IPEF through executive action rather than as a traditional trade deal requiring congressional approval. This pathway will help the framework sidestep political obstacles that agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership faced before Congress, but it also means that the administration cannot offer increased market access or any other concessions that would require changes to U.S. law. Moreover, moving forward with the IPEF through executive action has led to concerns among partners that the framework could be vulnerable to U.S. domestic politics or that a future administration may well roll back or abandon the framework. Given these self-imposed constraints, the administration will face headwinds trying to convince countries to sign on to high-standard provisions on digital trade, labor, and environmental standards that might run counter to their perceived short-term political or economic interests. One possible solution would have been to make the involvement in the other three pillars, where there are likely to be more tangible benefits for other countries, contingent on an agreement in the trade pillar. But that would run counter to the desire to get as many countries on board as possible. So, the administration has instead indicated that countries will be invited to engage in each pillar a la carte. And while like-mindedness in and of itself does not immediately guarantee their support for the IPEF, the likely result is that only Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and perhaps South Korea—the most developed economies which already share U.S. standards on digital trade, environment, and labor—will engage with USTR on the trade pillar. But a wider array of economies will likely join the talks with the Commerce Department on the other three.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Digital Economy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

23. Securing Asia’s Subsea Network U.S. Interests and Strategic Options

Author:
Matthew Goodman and Matthew Wayland
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
More than 1 million kilometers of submarine cables traversing the ocean floor, each about as wide as a garden hose, transmit up to 99 percent of international data, underpinning global trade and communication. This vital digital infrastructure faces myriad threats, from earthquakes and typhoons to fishing nets and saboteurs. The United States derives significant advantages from its centrality in Asia’s subsea cables, which contribute up to $169 billion to the U.S. economy annually and could benefit more U.S. workers and businesses as demand for digital products and services grows globally. But realizing those benefits will require the United States to step up its policy engagement on Asia’s cable networks, which are changing with China’s rise, the emergence of new regional hubs, and new transpacific routes designed to reduce risks and increase network resiliency.
Topic:
Security, International Trade and Finance, Communications, Maritime, and Commerce
Political Geography:
China and Asia

24. Biden, Israel, and China: Making a Difficult Threesome Work

Author:
Steven R. David
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It is wrong to expect Israel, a middle-level economy, to decouple from China when far wealthier countries (including the United States) show no signs of following suit. Israeli companies should not be subject to restrictions not placed on companies elsewhere, including the United States itself.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

25. Beyond Geopolitics: A Geoeconomic Perspective of China-Iran Belt and Road Initiative Relations

Author:
Seyedashkan Madani
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the largest regional development project in the history of global development. It is estimated that Chinese companies will invest up to $1.2 trillion in infrastructure development in Asia and elsewhere in the coming years. However, there are many obstacles to the successful implementation of this initiative in the host countries, including geographical factors, local culture, geopolitical contestation, public attitudes, institutional capacity, and governance quality. These challenges can substantially diminish the coherence of the BRI and prevent its effective implementation. This study aims to develop an analytical framework for exploring the risks associated with and challenges of executing BRI projects in Iran. To this end, all risks are categorized into three broad groups: operational, financial, and geopolitical. The results show that Iran generally faces many internal and external challenges in attracting foreign investment. The critical question is: Why is Iran receiving substantial investment from Chinese companies despite its unfavorable business environment? A geoeconomic approach is used to develop a theoretical framework to explain Iran-China BRI relations. In this context, Iran’s geoeconomic significance is the main factor encouraging the flow of Chinese investment into the country. The BRI comprises mostly functional cooperation between China and countries along the Silk Road based on a specific geospatial environment. Iran’s geospatial environment encourages Chinese investments in infrastructure, which is the main content of functional cooperation.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

26. Assessing the Effects of Trade Liberalization With Third Countries: The Case of the Eurasian Economic Union

Author:
Simon Sngryan
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The processes of objectively conditioned integration in the economic, political, legal, and institutional spheres of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) Member States took place step by step, starting from preferential trade agreements, passing to the customs union, the common market and other stages of integration. This process is accompanied by the gradual deepening of trade liberalization with potential partners. The selection of potential partners should be carried out through a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the structure and volumes of foreign trade of the EEU Member States (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia) with third parties, their markets structure, existing customs regulation, trade barriers, and possible export potential. The research evaluated the EEU's possible enlargement effects on the Member States' economic indicators. The research aimed to assess the possible consequences of EEU expansion and signing free trade agreements, considering Pakistan, Korea, and Malaysia as potential trade partners. Modeling the effect of an FTA assumes horizontal zeroing of tariffs between partners. Then, using the GTAP model, a new state of general equilibrium was calculated corresponding to the changed parameters of customs and tariff regulation. In this case, most variables, such as change in GDP, production output, and export-import volumes, were estimated, manifesting the economic effect of trade liberalization.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Trade Liberalization
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, and Asia

27. China's Geo-Economic Interest in Africa: A Short Overview

Author:
Jajati K. Pattnaik and Chandan K. Panda
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The article examines China’s geo-economic interest in Africa. China intends to exercise its leverage over both coastal frontiers for trade and defense and its hinterland for rich mineral, metal, and fossil deposits. Furthermore, the debt trap seems to be one of the methods through which China intended to bargain with Africa to bag as much advantage as it could gain. The question that emerges from this critical engagement with China-Africa relations is to look into how the reality of Africa’s narrative of development is projected both from outside and within and the contradiction embodied in that projection. China used the narrative of development to set its feet on African soil. This paper discusses China’s penetration into Africa by offering interest-free loans and its gradual emergence as a neocolonial power through expanding its network. The method used in the study to establish China’s monopoly and interfering streak in African affairs through BRI is the analysis of available data based on which the objectives and the conclusions are drawn.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Hegemony, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China and Asia

28. Cutting through the Value Chain: The Long-Run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West

Author:
Gabriel Felbermayr, Alexander Sandkamp, and Hendrik Mahlkow
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the US on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of doubling non-tariff barriers - both unilateral and reciprocal - between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing trade barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports. In addition, changes in price levels lead to higher imports and lower exports of the imposing country group from and to the rest of the world. The targeted country group increases exports to the rest of the world and reduces imports. Welfare falls in all countries involved, suggesting that governments should strive to cooperate rather than turning away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could inflict severe damage on the Russian economy because of the latter’s smaller relative size.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Conflict, Trade Wars, Protectionism, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

29. Digitalization of Special Economic Zones in China

Author:
Jie (Jeanne) Huang
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
Special Economic Zones (SEZ) have become the forefront in China to test legal and technological reforms for digital trade. This chapter explores three cutting-edge case studies in China’s SEZs: the Beijing blockchain-based Single Window deposit box; newly established big data exchanges in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai SEZs; and pilot projects in financial, medical care and automobile industries to flow data across the border in the Shanghai SEZ. It scrutinizes China's experiments in the context of its applications to join CPTPP and DEPA. It argues that the development of Chinese domestic law for digital trade is shifting away from the traditional paradigm that uses international commitments to push domestic reform or make domestic law according to international law. The development of Chinese domestic law for digital trade relies much more on China’s domestic needs than what FTAs negotiations require. FTAs are increasingly becoming a tool for China to shape international law rather than a benchmark for legislating domestic Chinese law.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
China and Asia

30. Economic Security in Emerging Markets: A Look at India, Vietnam, and Indonesia

Author:
Matthew Goodman, Matthew Reynolds, and Julianne Fittipaldi
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
With the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chain resilience has emerged as a policy priority of the United States and its allies. The issue of supply chains has also raised the profile of emerging economies that offer possible alternatives to China as production platforms for multinational firms. This report surveys economic security policy developments in three major emerging economies: India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. It finds that all are attempting to take advantage of this new focus on supply chain resilience, while (to varying degrees) balancing the economic security risks posed by China’s rise. The United States and its allies have an opportunity to work with these emerging economies to shape their decisions about trade, investment, and technology policies in ways that promote mutual economic security and enhance international economic rules and norms.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Indonesia, India, Asia, Vietnam, and Asia-Pacific

31. U.S. Strategy: Rebalancing Global Energy between Europe, Russia, and Asia and U.S. Security Policy in the Middle East and the Gulf

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine has already shown how dangerous it is for the U.S. to assume that it can rebalance its forces to one region and count on a lasting peace or detente in others. It now is all too clear that U.S. strategy must continue to focus on Europe as well as China. What is less clear is the extent to which the Ukraine War is an equal warning that the U.S. must have a truly global strategy – and one that continues to focus on other critical regions like the Middle East. The sudden escalation of the Ukraine crisis into a major regional conflict and the need for political and diplomatic support in the UN as well as for sanctions are warnings that much of the U.S. success in deterrence and defense lies in creating long-term global diplomatic and political support as well as true and lasting strategic partnerships.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

32. Green New Deal for Carbon-neutrality and Open Trade Policy in Korea

Author:
Jukwan Lee, Jongduk Kim, Jinyoung Moon, Jyun-Hyun Eom, Ji Hyeon Kim, and Jungmin Suh
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This study focuses on Korea’s Green New Deal policy and global response measures to climate change that affect international trade. A trade policy perspective and approach have been applied while reviewing the carbon-neutral policy pursued by the Green New Deal. We attempted through an empirical analysis to determine whether the expansion of openness helps reduce carbon emissions and simulate the impact of a carbon-neutral policy, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment, on the global economy under global production networks. In addition, the amount of financial support from Korea's Green New Deal needed to offset the negative economic effects of other countries’ independent carbon-neutral policies was derived. This study finally suggests that the effect of the Green New Deal can be expanded through the restoration of openness and global cooperation.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Economy, Trade, Carbon Emissions, and Green New Deal
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

33. Is South Korea vulnerable to EU and US carbon border restrictions?

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott and Megan Hogan
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
South Korean exports, especially carbon-intensive products like steel, are increasingly vulnerable to both the European Union’s proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM)—set to begin on January 1, 2023—and the proposed Clean Competition Act (CCA) before the US Congress. Schott and Hogan caution that Korean exporters should not count on Korea’s decade-old EU and US free trade agreements (FTAs), nor on the multilateral trading rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), to protect them from new carbon-based import barriers in key foreign markets. The WTO and the FTAs have broad and loosely defined exemptions for environmental protection. Nor is Korea likely to be shielded by its own cap-and-trade emissions trading system (the K-ETS), because of extensive use of free allowances and large differences between EU and Korean carbon prices. While the threat the EU CBAM poses to Korean exports is imminent, passage of the CCA faces major legislative obstacles. But US imports of Korean steel and other carbon-intensive goods are still subject to climate-related duties at the US border under US unfair trade statutes. The US Department of Commerce has ruled that free allowances issued under the K-ETS (and EU ETS) are implicit subsidies that can be offset by countervailing duties. These charges are in addition to the harsh tariff-rate quotas on imported Korean steel applied under the “national security” authority of Section 232 of US trade law, which are more restrictive than measures imposed against European and other steel exporters. The authors suggest relaxing these US barriers, as they have been for shipments from Europe, in return for Korean participation in the nascent US-EU talks to establish a “Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum.”
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Exports, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

34. Public responses to foreign protectionism: Evidence from the US-China trade war

Author:
David Steinberg and Yeling Tan
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
America's recent turn toward protectionism has raised concerns about the future viability of the liberal international trading system. This study examines how and why public attitudes toward international trade change when one's country is targeted by protectionist measures from abroad. To address this question, the authors fielded three original survey experiments in the country most affected by US protectionism: China. First, they find consistent evidence that US protectionism reduces Chinese citizens' support for trade. This finding is replicated in parallel experiments on technology cooperation, and further validated outside of the China context with a survey experiment in Argentina. Second, they show that responses to US protectionism reflect both a "direct reciprocity" logic—citizens want to retaliate against the United States specifically—and a "generalized reciprocity" logic that reduces support for trade on a broader, systemic basis.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Protectionism, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

35. The Evolution of the Global Trading System: How the Rise of Asia and Next Generation Trade Will Shape the Future Economy

Author:
Shay Wester
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Over the last seventy years, global trade flows have grown to an unprecedented level, facilitated by the lowering of tariffs and the creation of a shared set of rules. The Asia Pacific region has been central to this remarkable growth, with trade volumes nearly quadrupling in the last twenty years. Asian countries view trade as a critical tool to grow their economies, strengthen supply chain resiliency, create jobs, foster development, attract foreign direct investment, and promote innovation. As a result, they have been on the forefront of concluding trade agreements, and in the process tackling emerging issues through innovative approaches. In the meantime, many of the existing institutions, groupings, and approaches that have supported a strong rules-based trading system have not sufficiently stepped up to address emerging challenges. In particular, negotiating efforts at the World Trade Organization (WTO) have largely stalled with WTO members to date unable to forge consensus on pressing trade matters affecting climate, health, and digital, to name just a few. Additionally, as the scope of trade agreements has expanded over time, concluding comprehensive agreements has become more difficult. Finally, increased geopolitical tensions have impacted the multilateral trading system’s ability to function and thus respond effectively to new challenges. A new Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) report, The Evolution of the Global Trading System: How the Rise of Asia and Next Generation Challenges Will Shape the Future Economy, by ASPI's Shay Wester, explores next-generation trade challenges where new rules and new approaches will be needed. It concludes with observations on how these changes are reshaping the global trading system and examines how governments will need to adapt going forward.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, Economy, and Tariffs
Political Geography:
Asia

36. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes

Author:
Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, and Joschka Wanner
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential — the maximum welfare change attainable — when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 – 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Sanctions, Alliance, and Embargo
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

37. Economic Cracks in the Great Wall of China: Is China's Current Economic Model Sustainable?

Author:
Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Since Deng Xiaoping changed the trajectory of Chinese economic policy in 1978, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has amassed an impressive record of economic growth. Many economists and political analysts, however, have come to question whether the top-down, mercantilist economic system in the PRC is sustainable in the medium to long term. This report explores the long-term structural and short-term economic problems in contemporary China, and in particular considers whether the Xi Jinping regime can avoid a financial crisis and effectively manage a transition to a stable new equilibrium. Structural issues include a looming downturn in the population and in the workforce; associated problems with an underdeveloped and underfinanced social safety and welfare net; income and regional inequality; environmental degradation; and domestic shortages of raw materials, agricultural production, and energy resources. The acute economic problems analyzed in the paper are a real estate bubble, the accumulation of dangerous levels of debt, dependence on external markets and financing, a difficult transition to a more consumer-oriented and less investment-driven economy, a crackdown on dynamic digital and financial sectors, a return to dominance of low-productivity state-owned enterprises and manufacturing firms, and weak governance from an increasingly authoritarian and unaccountable regime. Many of these acute issues result from Xi’s changes in policy since 2013. Xi’s turn toward greater economic self-reliance while maintaining mercantilist trade relations signals an effective decoupling from the US and allied economies. Some historical examples of bubble economies and financial crises are discussed as possible analogies to the current situation in China. One conclusion is that the Middle Kingdom will see a much slower-growing economy, which makes addressing the structural issues much more difficult. Inability or lack of determination to address the large array of issues may also undermine the political legitimacy of the current regime, which has been buttressed since 1978 by a rapid growth model based on debt, real estate, and investment, including infrastructure. The concluding section of this report offers policy tools that the United States and its allies could deploy to induce China to be a more responsible stakeholder in the world economy and a more reliable contributor to global sustainability. The tools considered in the study include trade policy and export controls, expanded oversight of foreign investment (both direct and portfolio investment), cooperation with allies on China policy, and defense-related sanctions. The paper also suggests that deployment of these tools could be a factor in weakening China’s economy as well as a means to convince its leadership to pursue less mercantilist and authoritarian global strategies, which are harmful to the US economy and to global stability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Finance, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
China and Asia

38. Revisiting the Us-china Trade War: A Strategic Assessment

Author:
Zaeem Hassan Mehmood
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The relations among United States of America and People’s Republic of China have historically survived several bouts and rounds however the approach employed by the Trump Administration for a program involving reprisal hefty tariff-trade war against China has given a new face to the bilateral relations between the two states. The paper demonstrates that domestic and international agents played a vital role in initiating and nurturing the trade clash between Washington and Beijing since 2018 to date. The aim of the study is to ascertain that how the political climate and past pursuits of one country conditions policy outcomes in another, and how domestic political pressures on politician’s conditions their relations with foreign counterparts. The paradigm of rational choice theory is adopted to provide a conceptual understanding to the triggering of the trade war between the economic giants.
Topic:
Cold War, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Conflict, Trade Wars, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

39. Revitalization of Maritime Silk Road Based on the Security Implications and Cooperation

Author:
Hamsu Abdul Gani
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The revitalization of the Silk Road as a trade route, cultural exchange, religion, science and civilization based on the “Maritime Silk Road” (MSR) is the focus of strategic studies and international relations. ASEAN countries, including Indonesia in the MSR route and the contestation of the United States and China who are fighting for dominance in the Indo-Pacific region, face challenges and opportunities. The results of this research, which uses a normative approach, show that the revitalization of the MSR may give positive impacts to China’s foreign affairs for the good interaction and communication among people by economic trade.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Maritime, and Silk Road
Political Geography:
China and Asia

40. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Author:
Ali Haider Saleem and Arhama Siddiqa
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The term Silk Road is used by scholars to describe a network of trading posts and markets linking East Asia to the Mediterranean. In terms of geographical context, the editors of Baku Dialogues define the region as the “geographic space looking west past Anatolia to the warm seas beyond; north across the Caspian towards the Great Plain and the Great Steppe; east to the peaks of the Altai and the arid sands of the Taklamakan; and south towards the Hindu Kush and the Indus valley, looping down around in the direc­tion of the Persian Gulf and across the Fertile Crescent.” States falling under this parasol include China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, the five Central Asian republics, Azerbaijan, and Russia. China’s Belt and Road Initia­tive (BRI), which traverses several continents, is a long‑term, strategic investment plan with the objective of facilitating economic integration of countries in line with the historic Silk Road. In April 2015, China’s President, Xi Jinping announced the China‑Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which amounts to BRI’s flagship project. This en­terprise, which encompasses road, rail, and oil pipeline links, will help Beijing advance its influence across South and Central Asia.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Silk Road
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, and Asia

41. Hydrocarbon Energy Complexes Central Eurasian Keystone Triangles

Author:
Robert M. Cutler
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The editorial statement of Baku Dialogues posits a certain geographic defini­tion of what is called the “Silk Road Region,” namely “the geographic space looking west past Anatolia to the warm seas beyond; north across the Caspian towards the Great Plain and the Great Steppe; east to the peaks of the Altai and the arid sands of the Taklamakan; and south towards the Hindu Kush and the Indus valley, looping down around in the direction of the Persian Gulf and across the Fertile Crescent.” When I served on the Executive Board of the Central Eurasian Studies Society 20 years ago, its website provided a lengthy but useful geographic definition of “Central Eurasia.” This definition included “Turkic, Mongolian, Ira­nian, Caucasian, Tibetan, and other peoples in a broad area that geo­graphically extends from the Black Sea region, the Crimea, and the Caucasus in the west, through the Middle Volga region, Central Asia and Afghanistan, and on to Siberia, Mongolia, and Tibet in the east.” To clarify the term “Black Sea re­gion,” which appears in that defini­tion, I adopt the European Union’s characterization of that region as stretching from Romania and Bul­garia, through northern Turkey and on to Georgia, but including only a thin coastal strip some 20‑60 kilo­meters wide within the EU itself, in­cluding the Danube delta. From that definition, it would follow that the Silk Road Region is largely em­bedded in Central Eurasia. The name “Central Eurasia” was sometimes used in the 1990s as a shorthand for the 15 former So­viet republics together (Russia in­cluded), but this usage has faded away. The collapse of the Soviet Union did not assure the even­tual geoeconomic consolidation of Central Eurasia, but the condi­tions for that consolidation have now been established. This has oc­curred thanks to the confluence of international financial and indus­trial interest in the region’s energy resources, the political will of the United States (the only remaining superpower), and the freedom and rapidity of networked information exchanges made possible by the internet.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regionalism, and Silk Road
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

42. The Strategic Benefits of the Southern Gas Corridor

Author:
Vitaliy Baylarbayov
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
At the end of 2020, the Southern Gas Corridor became fully operational. This marked the completion of a journey that began a decade ago when the government of Azerbaijan and the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) took a strategic decision to launch a major natural gas export project. The Southern Gas Corridor is one of the largest and the most expen­sive gas supply projects in the world built to date. In December 2013, SOCAR and its partners signed a Final Investment Decision (FID) to establish a gas pipeline corridor from Azerbaijan through Georgia, Turkey, Greece, and Albania be­fore ending in Italy. A branch pipe­line is now under construction to Bulgaria, which is expected to be completed in the second half of 2021. In July 2018, the project supplied its first gas to the Turkish market and went on to change the dynamics of that country’s gas market, whereby Azerbaijan is now one of its top gas suppliers. On December 31st, 2020, inaugural commercial gas supplies arrived from the Caspian into Europe, signaling the commencement of the Southern Gas Corridor’s full operations. For Azerbaijan, the Southern Gas Corridor provides a major source of revenue unlinked to the global oil market; the project also strengthens Baku’s links with its neighbors and Europe. For SOCAR—as operator of components of the project and investor in all its segments—the project’s success represents a major step in the company’s transition from a national to an international energy company. The Southern Gas Corridor provides new gas supplies to Turkey, Georgia, and Europe and is a platform for in­creased supplies to these markets and also can be extended to reach additional markets in Europe. With the completion of the first stage of the Southern Gas Corridor, Azerbaijan and SOCAR, together with their partners, are examining strategies for the next phase of the corridor’s development.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Azerbaijan

43. Beijing’s Long Way to the Gulf Region Oil, Security, Geopolitics

Author:
Fuad Shahbazov
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Energy cooperation has been a key aspect of growing bilateral cooper­ation between China and the Arab states of the Gulf region for the past several years. Since 1996, China has become a net importer of crude oil and, as the second‑largest en­ergy consumer in the world after the United States, is now the third‑largest importer of oil after the United States and Japan. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that China is eying a deep and strategic partnership with the states of a re­gion that sits on top of the world’s largest proven crude oil and natural gas reserves. The deepening political and economic cooperation between China and the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has received increasing atten­tion from the region’s more estab­lished strategic players: foremost the United States, but also the UK as well as the EU and some of its member states. Indeed, the region’s apparent geopolitical challenges— such as the American withdrawal from the Middle East, the escalation of sectarian wars in the region, the outbreak and development of the Syrian conflict followed by the spread of Islamic radicalism and similar threats—have encouraged the Arab states in the Gulf (as well as Iran) to look more to the East for new reliable partners. This has pro­vided China with an opportunity to obtain a foothold in the region, which sits adjacent to the Silk Road region and is therefore of signifi­cant and lasting interest to readers of Baku Dialogues. With the rapid growth of its economy and consequent height­ened energy demands, China is viewed as a potential investor by the oil rich GCC states, each of which needs to diversify its economy. On­going Western sanctions directed against Iran also make China an attractive proposition for Tehran. Although the Chinese interest in, and policy towards, the region is increasingly complex, this new axis between the Gulf region (especially the Arab half) and China has not received much attention from the think tank and academic communities—at least in the West.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, Hegemony, and Energy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Gulf Nations

44. Development or Regression? Eurasia’s Investment Attractiveness

Author:
Stanislav Pritchin
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
In 2021 the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus—some call it Eurasia, other the Silk Road re­gion—will celebrate thirty years of independence. Theoretically, this period should have provided suffi­cient time for each to have formed a new economic model, set and at least partially attain long‑term de­velopment goals, and developed a foreign policy model for optimal interaction with investors, in­cluding foreign ones. However, the experience of the post‑Soviet republics under consideration in this essay, which does not aspire to be comprehensive but should rather be considered a prelimi­nary assessment, indicates that independence is neither a prereq­uisite for successful development nor one that centers of achieving a sustainable increase in popular welfare. Despite the fact that in 1991 standards of living and educational and economic attainment in the Soviet republics that are examined in this essay were approximately similar, after three decades of inde­pendent development the countries under consideration have been sig­nificantly stratified in terms of na­tional wealth, types of political and social systems, and the specifics of their economic activities.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regionalism, and Silk Road
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

45. The COVID-19 Pandemic and the World Trade Network

Author:
Kozo Kiyota
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Global trade is expected to suffer a significant contraction as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Did the relative importance of countries in the world trade network change as a result of the pandemic? The answer to this question is particularly important for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries because of their strong trade linkages with China, where the COVID-19 virus originated. This paper examines how the world trade network has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on ASEAN countries. Tracking the changes in centrality from January 2000 to June 2020, we find no evidence that centrality changed significantly after the pandemic started for most ASEAN countries. Our results suggest that the relative importance of the ASEAN countries in the world trade network is unchanged and will remain unchanged even after the pandemic.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

46. The COVID-19 Pandemic, Air Transport Perturbation, and Sector Impacts in ASEAN Plus Five: A Multiregional Input–Output Inoperability Analysis

Author:
Tamat Sarmidi, Norlin Khalid, Sufian Jusoh, and Muhamad Rias K.V. Zainuddin
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study simulates the sector impacts of demand-side perturbations on air transport sectors due to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on ASEAN members plus Australia, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand. This study involves (i) the generation of a multiregional input–output table from the latest Global Trade Analysis Project data, (ii) a network analysis to determine the importance of the air transport industry in each country, (iii) multiplier and linkages analyses, (iv) determinations of sector impacts from demand-side perturbations on air transport sectors due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and (v) simulation of the effect of fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the pandemic’s impact. This study demonstrates that the aviation industry is a key sector in domestic and regional economic activities, and the reduction in air transport consumer demand due to the pandemic is estimated to cause gross domestic product (GDP) reductions from 0.4% to 2.1%. Government intervention, through fiscal and monetary policies, has, however, mitigated severe impact, moderating GDP and value-added losses. Thus, a viable policy prescription for the aviation industry is of utmost importance.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

47. Facilitating Trade in Pharmaceuticals: A Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Ben Shepherd
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper reviews trade in pharmaceutical products, focusing on ASEAN countries. Trade in this sector is of singular policy importance as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, the paper shows that pharmaceuticals are traded within Global Value Chains, which in turn means that international linkages are complex. Second, the paper shows that policy reforms can help boost trade in the sector, which has important human development implications during the pandemic period.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, Global Value Chains, COVID-19, and Pharmaceuticals
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

48. East Asian Production Networks Amidst the COVID-19 Shock

Author:
Ayako Obashi
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In the East Asian context, previous studies showed that trade occurring through production networks remained relatively steady amidst an economic shock and recovered faster and stronger once the shock was over. Using finely disaggregated product-level monthly bilateral trade data, we examine whether network trade in the East Asian region has been robust and resilient in face of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as in normal times, by conducting a series of survival analyses. We find a new set of empirical evidence suggesting the robustness of East Asian network trade in normal times and its resilience even amidst the COVID-19 shock.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Production
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

49. The Effect of Non-Tariff Measures on Global Value Chain Participation

Author:
Upalat Korwatanasakul
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study examines the impact of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on global value chain (GVC) participation and the underlying mechanisms. Our study employs a novel approach using an additional compliance requirement indicator as a relative proxy for NTMs to measure their impact on GVC participation. We conduct a cross-sectional analysis at the industry level, spanning 19 industrial sectors in 30 countries in 2015. We combine our additional compliance requirement indicator dataset calculated from NTM data in the Trade Analysis Information System, with our dataset on trade in value added estimated from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Inter-Country Input–Output Table. Our analysis finds that, while NTMs and tariffs both negatively impact backward GVC participation, the impact of NTMs is greater than that of tariff measures. Moreover, the estimated results show that inward foreign direct investment is positively associated with backward GVC participation. Therefore, policies that reduce trade costs from policy barriers, especially NTMs, and attract more foreign direct investment can help promote GVC participation.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Industry, Global Value Chains, and Non-Tariff Measures
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

50. The Effects of SPSs and TBTs on Innovation: Evidence from Exporting Firms in Viet Nam

Author:
Duc Anh Dang and Vuong Anh Dang
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBTs) in destination markets may affect firms’ performance. In this paper, we examine how meeting foreign standards affects exporting firms’ innovation, reflected in the product quality, production processes, skills, and technological acquisition. The analysis relies on official regulations on non-tariff measures released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and panel data for manufacturing firms in Viet Nam during 2013–2015. To correct for the potential endogeneity of SPS measures and TBTs and measurement errors, we use the number of SPS measures and TBTs imposed on other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States as an instrument variable. Our results indicate that a higher number of SPS measures and TBTs applied by destination countries increases the probability of Vietnamese exporting firms’ skill acquisition. SPS measures also have higher positive impacts on product quality improvement and skill acquisition in the food processing sector. The SPS measures and TBTs have larger impacts on small firms than large firms. Foreign firms tend to acquire more technology and skills than domestic firms when facing SPS measures and TBTs by importing countries. Higher SPS measures and TBTs have more effects on the probability of acquiring skills by state-owned firms. However, the propensity of product quality and technological acquisition of non-state firms is much higher than that of state-owned firms when facing a greater level of SPS measures and TBTs.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Governance, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia