Number of results to display per page
Search Results
5752. Japanese Economic Stagnation: Still in Neutral
- Author:
- Edward Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- One of the discouraging problems in Northeast Asia over the past decade has been the lengthy malaise in the Japanese economy and the inability of government, business, and the public to forge effective solutions. In the decade since 1992, the average annual real (inflation-adjusted) economic growth rate has been only one percent—positive but very low and punctuated by four recessions in which gross domestic product (GDP) fell for at least two consecutive quarters. The financial sector is weighed down under an enormous amount of non-performing loans that has only grown larger over time. Meanwhile, Japan has become the first industrial country since the 1930s to experience deflation—a decline in the overall price level.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and Northeast Asia
5753. Chinese State, Chinese Society: Facing a New Century
- Author:
- Jae Ho Chung and Zhang Ye
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The Sixteenth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was convened during November 8-15, 2002. The Congress reconfirmed the Party's strong commitment to the three key tasks of achieving modernization, accomplishing national unification, and safeguarding world peace and development. The outgoing CCP General Secretary Jiang Zemin, on behalf of the Fifteenth Central Committee, emphasized the need for further political changes at the grassroots and presented the target of quadrupling China's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020. Jiang also projected that China's armed forces would possess fewer but better troops “ with Chinese characteristics. ”
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5754. Crisis on the Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- Richard Bush, Dean Nowowiejski, and Tomatsu Nakano
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Most signs during the late summer and early fall of 2002 pointed to progress on the Korean peninsula. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il had finally grasped, it appeared, the need for international moderation and domestic reform. The United States seemed ready to respond in kind. But with the visit to Pyongyang in October of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly – the first high-level contact since the Bush Administration came into office – the situation quickly unraveled. Instead of offering the “bold initiative” that was reportedly in the works, Kelly confronted his interlocutors with evidence that their government had mounted a new, clandestine uranium-based nuclear program. The North Koreans refused to disavow the program and insisted on their right to nuclear weapons. Kelly responded that the United States would not engage the DPRK unless and until it abandoned the program. The status of the 1994 U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework, which had capped North Korea's plutonium-based program in return for international assistance in meeting its civilian energy needs, was uncertain at best. The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), the mechanism for providing that aid, stopped heavy fuel oil shipments to North Korea at the end of 2002 at American insistence.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, Korea, and Sinai Peninsula
5755. Brookings Northeast Asia Survey, 2002-03
- Author:
- Catharin Dalpino and Richard Bush
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This is the third edition of the Northeast Asian Survey, sponsored by the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies of the Brookings Institution. Following this review of developments in the region during 2002, the bulk of the volume is composed of essays that provide mid-term perspectives on internal dynamics in China, Hong Kong, and Japan, on the crisis on the Korean peninsula, and on relations between China and Taiwan and on China and Southeast Asia. All the authors have been affiliated with the Brookings Institution during the 2002-03 year. Most were CNAPS Visiting Fellows or Brookings Federal Executive Fellows.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, Southeast Asia, Hong Kong, and Northeast Asia
5756. Reverse Course? The Fragile Turnaround in U.S.-China Relations
- Author:
- Michael Swaine
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- A remarkable improvement has taken place in U.S.–China relations during the past fourteen months, largely as a result of the 2001 terrorist attacks. Both sides have developed strong incentives to downplay their differences and seek common ground in a variety of areas, particularly the struggle against terrorism. If properly managed, this situation could lead to a more stable, mutually beneficial relationship during the next several years. However, the major obstacle to reaching this objective remains the Taiwan issue, which continues to exhibit highly destabilizing trends. In particular, political and social dynamics on Taiwan, Beijing's steady accumulation of military power, and the rapidly deepening U.S.–Taiwan security relationship could combine to increase the likelihood of conflict within the next five to seven years. To avoid this, and to establish a more sustainable basis for improved U.S.–China relations, the U.S. government must undertake policy changes, beginning with a serious effort to negotiate mutual arms reductions across the Taiwan Strait.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Taiwan, and Asia
5757. The China-Taiwan Military Balance: Implications for the United States
- Author:
- Ivan Eland
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- China's economy is four times the size of Taiwan's and apparently growing at a faster rate; that economic disparity between China and Taiwan could eventually lead to a military disparity as well. Nonetheless, even an informal U.S. security guarantee for Taiwan against nuclear-armed China is ill-advised. Taiwan is not strategically essential to America's national security. Moreover, China has significant incentives to avoid attacking Taiwan. Perhaps the most crucial is that hostile behavior toward Taiwan would jeopardize China's increasing economic linkage with the United States and other key countries.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, Taiwan, and Asia
5758. Options for Dealing with North Korea
- Author:
- Ted Galen Carpenter
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- North Korea's recent actions in violation of the clear intent of the agreement it signed in 1994 to freeze its nuclear program have ignited a crisis in northeast Asia. Unfortunately, all of the frequently discussed options for dealing with this crisis have major drawbacks.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
5759. Whither Europe?
- Author:
- Barry Eichengreen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Where I live, on the West Coast of the United States, and teach, at the University of California, Europe seems far away. Geographically we are closer to Latin America and Asia. Ethnically, Californians of Hispanic and Asian-American descent are increasingly numerous. Within 20 years, residents of European origin will be a minority; already they are a minority of the undergraduates enrolling at Berkeley. Economically as well, we look to Asia. It is in California where the largest number of container ships arriving from Asia are unloaded, and it is across the Pacific, and in China in particular, that most of those containers originate.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, Asia, California, and Latin America
5760. Institutions for Fiscal Stability (Financial Integration in Europe and Asia)
- Author:
- Barry Eichengreen and Yung Chul Park
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- One of the most striking aspects of Europe's recent development has been the growth and integration of financial markets. Bond markets have grown explosively since the advent of the euro. Cross border transactions in government bonds have risen sharply with the emergence of the German bund as a benchmark asset, while the volume of corporate bond issues has grown even more dramatically. Securities markets are consolidating around London and Frankfurt, which are competing for the mantle of Europe's dominant financial center. This rapid market integration has raised questions about the viability of Europe's traditional model of bank-based financial intermediation, causing commercial and investment banks to respond with a wave of mergers and acquisitions.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, London, and Germany
5761. Participation in a Decentralized Housing Allowance Program in a Transition Economy
- Author:
- Tatiana Lykova, Sergei Sivaev, Raymond J. Struyk, and Ekaterina Petrova
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- When Russia's housing allowance program, the country's first means-tested program, was introduced in 1994, it was truly innovative. But there were difficulties from the start, many arising from the division of authority for setting program parameters among different levels of government and the potential for variation in the treatment of similar households in different cities. In 1996, the program's original simple basis for benefit determination was seriously impaired by the introduction of different principles for very low-income households. Moreover, local governments have exhibited a willingness to vary benefits from year-to-year, depending on political and budgetary considerations. The analysis presented here documents the impact of these variations on participation rates in a sample of Russian cities. Large inequities are obviously present in the treatment of similar households from city to city. Indeed, it is questionable whether the program as currently configured is fulfilling the social safety net function envisioned for it in the original legislation.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
5762. Russia's Winter Woes: Tariff Setting for Local Utilities in a Transition Economy
- Author:
- Sergei Sivaev, Raymond J. Struyk, Valentin Andrianov, and Emin Askerov
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- During the past two winters, breakdowns in district heating services in Russia have grabbed international headlines. In Russia these services and water and sewerage services are the responsibility of municipal governments; these governments set the tariffs for these services. This article examines the tariff-setting process during 1997–2001 for these two services with particular emphasis on the decision process for considering tariff increases. We find that little progress has been made during the transition period in developing the legal base for rational tariff-setting procedures. Overall, tariff increases have been substantially less than the rate of inflation. Statistical analysis confirms that decisionmaking is highly politicized and that in times of extreme inflation tariff increases lag even further behind inflation, with the sector being used as a kind of shock absorber to cushion the full impacts of inflation on the population. There is an obvious acute need for leadership at the national level to address these problems.
- Topic:
- Development, Energy Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
5763. A Decomposition Analysis of Regional Poverty in Russia
- Author:
- Anthony Shorrocks and Stanislav Kolenikov
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper applies a new decomposition technique to the study of variations in poverty across the regions of Russia. The procedure, which is based on the Shapley value in cooperative game theory, allows the deviation in regional poverty levels from the all- Russia average to be attributed to three proximate sources; mean income per capita, inequality, and local prices. Contrary to expectation, regional poverty variations turn out to be due more to differences in inequality across regions than to differences in real income per capita. However, when real income per capita is split into nominal income and price components, differences in nominal incomes emerge as more important than either inequality or price effects for the majority of regions.
- Topic:
- Economics and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
5764. Illegal Immigration, Human Trafficking, and Organized Crime
- Author:
- Raimo Väyrynen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- It is important to make a careful distinction between illegal immigration, human smuggling, and human trafficking which are nested, but yet different concepts. This distinction is relevant because these different categories of the illegal movement of people across borders have quite different legal and political consequences. Human smuggling and trafficking have become a world-wide industry that 'employs' every year millions of people and leads to the annual turnover of billions of dollars. Many of the routes and enclaves used by the smugglers have become institutionalized; for instance, from Mexico and Central America to the United States, from West Asia through Greece and Turkey to Western Europe, and within East and Southeast Asia. More often than not flourishing smuggling routes are made possible by weak legislation, lax border controls, corrupted police officers, and the power of the organized crime. Naturally, poverty and warfare contribute to the rising tide of migration, both legal and illegal.
- Topic:
- Environment and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Turkey, East Asia, Greece, Asia, Latin America, Central America, North America, Mexico, Southeast Asia, Western Europe, and West Asia
5765. Quo Vadis? Inequality and Poverty Dynamics across Russian Regions
- Author:
- Ruslan Yemtsov
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses regional data on inequality and poverty in Russia during 1994-2000 using published series from the regionally representative Household Budget Survey. The paper finds that the share of inequality in Russia coming from the between-regions component is large (close to a third of the total inequality), growing, and accounts for most of the increase in national inequality over 1994-2000. The paper demonstrates an absence of interregional convergence in incomes across Russian regions using various techniques. On the other hand, the paper finds evidence of convergence in inequality within regions, trended towards an internationally high level. Based on these two findings, the paper projects dynamics of inequality and poverty in Russia over a ten-year time horizon. The projections show that if the observed trend continues, by 2010 the absolute majority of Russia's poor will be concentrated in a few permanently impoverished regions, while relatively more affluent regions will become virtually free of poverty. Finally, the paper relates fluctuations in inequality within regions to a set of factors classified into four broad categories: endowments and initial conditions, preferences, policies, and shocks. Among these factors short-run fluctuations of the unemployment rate are revealed as significant and strong signals of inequality.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
5766. Externalities in Rural Development: Evidence for China
- Author:
- Martin Ravallion
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper tests for external effects of local economic activity on consumption and income growth at the farm household level using panel data from four provinces of post-reform rural China. The tests allow for nonstationary fixed effects in the consumption growth process. Evidence is found of geographic externalities, stemming from spillover effects of the level and composition of local economic activity and private returns to local human and physical infrastructure endowments. The results suggest an explanation for rural underdevelopment arising from underinvestment in certain externality-generating activities, of which agricultural development emerges as the most important.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5767. Social and Economic Decline as Factors in Conflict in the Caucasus
- Author:
- Svetlana Glinkina and Dorothy Rosenberg
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We argue that the conflicts in the Caucasus are the result of the abrogation by the elite of the earlier, Soviet era, social contract. This process was accompanied by the collapse of the formal economy; evidenced by huge national income compression, falling public goods provision, and growing inequality and poverty. In the absence of state provision of basic amenities and governance, ordinary people are compelled to fall back on kinship ties. Declining standards of governance facilitate state-sponsored corruption and criminality in a setting where the shadow economic activity is increasingly important to individual survival strategies. Oil pipelines and the right to control the transit of goods both legal and illegal also underlie conflict in the region. Criminality has replaced ethnicity as the major motivation for conflict and conflict per se has become a lucrative source of income.
- Topic:
- Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
5768. Chechnya Weekly: New Questions Arise Over Hostage Rescue Mission
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Did the U.S. and Russian governments both know that, when Russian commandos stormed Moscow's Dubrovka theater in October of 2002, the Chechen terrorists inside it had already agreed to release several of their hostages, including U.S. citizen Sandy Booker? Booker's fiance, Svetlana Gubareva, says that the answer is Yes. Booker and Gubareva's 13-year-old daughter, Sasha, both died in the tragedy; Gubareva was also taken hostage but survived.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Moscow
5769. Chechnya Weekly: What do Kremlin Changes Mean For Chechnya?
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The recent upheavals in the Kremlin, including the resignation of Aleksandr Voloshin as President Vladimir Putinís chief of staff, could portend major changes in the Kremlinís policies on Chechnya. Voloshin was known as a key architect of those policies and especially as a political ally of Akhmad Kadyrov, whose inauguration he attended in person last month. Conversely, the so-called ìsilovikiîó—the hard-liners of the military and secret police establishment, widely seen as the winners in the latest Kremlin faction fightó—have often been hostile to Kadyrov, whom they see as unreliable.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya
5770. Chechnya Weekly: Chechen Security Sweep Victims Still Alive?
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Many of the Chechens who have disappeared in “zachistki” security sweeps are still alive in Russian captivity, in the view of human rights activist Kheda Saratova. The head of the Vozvrashchenie (“Return”) foundation told correspondent Aleksandr Kolesnichenko of Novye izvestia that the organization has assembled more than a thousand individual case files. Vozvrashchenie was created only a month ago in Grozny, for the purpose of finding as many of the kidnapped as possible.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya
5771. Chechnya Weekly: Election Resolves Few Tensions in Chechnya
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The purging from Chechnya's government structures of sup porters of the main opposition candidates in the recent election has apparently intensified since October 5. Marina Perevozkina of Moskovsky komsomolets reported in an October 21 article on her conversation with Salavat Gebertaev. He is the mayor of Urus-Martan, which lies southwest of Grozny, and was one of the leaders of the movement for the Urus-Martan district to secede from Dudaev's jurisdiction in 1994. Dudaev's army stormed his town four times. When Maskhadov came to power, Gebertaev was sentenced to death and for some time hid abroad; after returning he survived an assassination attempt that he believes was organized by Maskhadov's circle. “It would seem,” suggested Perevozkina, “that Moscow should be relying on precisely such people in Chechnya. But Gebertaev is a relative and friend of Malik Saidullaev [who tried to run for president against Kadyrov]. On top of that, he committed a terrible crime: He received from Saidullaev and distributed some 500 wheelchairs and 2,000 crutches. Because of this the head of the district administration told him on the day after the election: “From now on we will not work with you.”
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow
5772. Chechnya Weekly: Military Voting Yields Unexpected Result
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Among the few surprises to come from Chechnya's election day on October 5, so far the most interesting is the revelation that the Russian troops who took part voted overwhelmingly against Akhmad Kadyrov. A respected Moscow journalist, recently returned from Grozny, told Chechnya Weekly on October 14 that some 90 percent of the Russian troops who cast ballots chose the option (not available in American elections) of voting “against all” of the candidates. The journalist said that the servicemen must have done this under the direction of their commanders, which provides further confirmation of the deep alienation between Kadyrov and the Russian military.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow
5773. Chechnya Weekly: Shattering the al Qaeda–Chechen Myth
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell and Brian Glyn Williams
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In 1999, U.S. presidential candidate George Bush spoke for much of the American right when he warned the Russians that they “need to resolve the dispute (with the Chechens) peaceably and not be bombing women and children and causing huge num bers of refugees to flee Chechnya.”[1] If the Russians did not stop their brutal second war against the Chechens, which had begun in the fall of 1999, Bush threatened to cut off IMF and Export-Import Bank loans to the former superpower that the Republican right, led by Senator Jesse Helms, still saw as a dangerous manifestation of the USSR.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Asia, and Chechnya
5774. Chechnya Weekly: Putin Leveling Accusations at US Officials?
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In a remarkably under reported statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin has apparently accused lower echelon U.S. government officials of meeting with known Chechen terrorists. On September 20, a few days before flying to the United States for his summit meeting with President George W. Bush, Putin met with several U.S. television journalists. Asked about Chechnya, the Russian president gave a long answer that mostly repeated points that he and his spokesmen have made before. But toward the end of his response he said the following (as translated by Chechnya Weekly from the text placed on the official website Kremlin.ru): “The United States has now voted in the Security Council in favor of recognizing several individuals as international terrorists. The State Department has announced that it has included several figures in its list of international terrorists. But unfortunately we know that on the executive level there are continuing attempts at contacts with some people under the pretense that what's happening is only work with the opposition. Even with people who are included on the United Nations list. These people come, say that they are 'political activists' and present them- selves in all sorts of guises. But I assure you, I know about this precisely—they are maintaining connections with their allies in Afghanistan, including those who have gone there from the Northern Caucasus of Russia and who are fighting with arms in their hands against American soldiers. Such absurdities on the working level must be stopped, the sooner the better.”
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and North Caucasus
5775. Chechnya Weekly: No Evidence of Chechens in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Have Chechen separatist guerrillas been fighting against the United States and its allies in places such as Iraq or Afghanistan—and if so, how many have been captured or killed? The U.S. government has been strikingly passive in seeking to learn (or, at least, in publicly disclosing) the answer to that question. Chechnya Weekly began pressing for a precise, concrete answer months ago, but we have yet to get one from the White House, Pentagon, or State Department.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya
5776. Chechnya Weekly: Candidate Drops Out of Presidential Race
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In a surprising announcement, Khusein Dzhabrailov has with drawn his candidacy for the presidency of Chechnya. The Moscow businessman, who had managed to win such potent endorsements as those of Bislan Gantemirov and Ruslan Khasbulatov, failed to give any substantive explanation for his decision. As reported on September 2 by the Lenta.ru website, his office merely announced that he had “come to the conclusion that he can provide significantly greater service to society in his present role.”
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow
5777. Chechnya Weekly: Crisis For Refugees in Ingushetia
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Pressure against Chechen refugees in Ingushetia has intensified further in recent days, Aleksandr Podrabinek of the newspaper Russky kurier reported on August 18. Hooligans are throwing rocks at the tents during the night, he wrote, and the tents are also being besieged at night by cars that honk their horns so that the refugees cannot sleep. The Kadyrov administration's prime minister, Anatoly Popov, who is now serving formally as “acting president” while Kadyrov pursues his own candidacy, told the news agency Interfax on August 13 that all of the tent camps for Chechen refugees in Ingushetia must be closed by October 1. That is just four days before the election.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Ingushetia
5778. Chechnya Weekly: Questions Surround Mosdok Bombing
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Are the Russian authorities lying about the number of casualties caused by the August 1 bombing of the military hospital in Mozdok? According to the official figures, widely disseminated in the Russian and western media, fifty occupants of the hospital complex died and eighty-two were wounded. But the Moscow daily Kommersant has received conflicting versions regarding those figures from a source connected to the criminal-investigative team on the scene. According to this source, the hospital was filled to more than its planned capacity of 150 patients. Also, several tents had been deployed on its grounds, each containing an additional eight to sixteen people. The truck bomb that destroyed the hospital was so powerful that only one wall of the building was left standing and nearby buildings were also damaged.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow
5779. Chechnya Weekly: Maskhadov Representative Visits Washington
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- About 20 percent of the Kadyrov administration's gunmen are secretly loyal to the secessionist government of President Aslan Maskhadov, a key Maskhadov representative claimed during a visit to Washington last week. Salambek Maigov, Maskhadov's emissary in Moscow, told Chechnya Weekly that former rebel guerrillas constitute the majority of Kadyrov's ostensibly “pro-Moscow” militia. Many of those not now in contact with the rebels, he insisted, “would fight for us if we were to attack Grozny again,” as in 1996.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Washington, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow
5780. Chechnya Weekly: Putin Amnesty Proposal Raises Host of Questions . . .
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin's amnesty proposal, which last week received preliminary approval from the federal Duma, is intended in large part to serve the same purpose as his March constitutional referendum. That is to create the impression that peace, reconciliation and the rule of law are returning to Chechnya, with the support of all but a few separatist fanatics. But compared to the referendum, the amnesty has a key disadvantage: Most (though not all) of the key issues involve the proposed legislation's formal text, not the largely hidden process by which that text will be put into practice. Ever since the president formally presented his proposal to the Russian parliament on May 12, skeptics have subjected it to withering criticism—most of the specific points of which Putin and his circle have not even seriously tried to address.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya
5781. Chechnya Weekly: Terror Attacks Suggest Disturbing Trend
- Author:
- Lawrence Uzzell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In some few respects—indeed, fewer even than a year ago— Shamil Basaev remains a traditional Chechen rebel rather than a postmodern global terrorist. For one, he takes full, public and personal responsibility for his atrocities. That fact alone casts doubt on the Kremlin's attempts to create the impression that the Chechen separatist movement (of which Basaev in any case represents only a part) is simply an arm of al Qaeda. Another difference is that Basaev has not followed al Qaeda's recent switch to soft targets. A pair of mid-May attacks, which Basaev publicly claimed as his own on May 19, were directed against two of the most heavily defended entities in hyper-militarized Chechnya—a key regional headquarters of the Federal Security Service (FSB) secret police, and the person of the head of the republic's Moscow- appointed administration.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow
5782. When Wen Comes To Washington . . .
- Author:
- Yu Bin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- In the Chinese language, the character "wen" means moderation and modesty. This happens to capture the personality and policies of China's new premier, Wen Jiabao. In his first trip to the United States as premier, Wen will try to present the image of a rising China that is liberalizing at home, is confident abroad, and willing and able to work with the world's sole superpower. The U.S. side will also have a closeup look at the man who may well administer China for the next 10 years.
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Asia
5783. Taiwan Referendum: Waving a Red Flag
- Author:
- Ralph A. Cossa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- TAIPEI – Is President Chen Shui-bian trying to provoke a crisis with the PRC in the run up to the March 2004 presidential elections in Taiwan? Taiwan government spokesmen say no, but there is a growing perception among cross-Strait watchers that Taipei is purposefully baiting Beijing in hopes of provoking a hostile response (a la the 1996 missile “tests”) that will cause the island's public to rally around the flag (and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party) in the name of Taiwanese nationalism.
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Asia
5784. Six-Party Talks Prospects
- Author:
- Ralph A. Cossa
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- President Bush's recent offer to provide Pyongyang with written assurances that the U.S. does not intend to attack North Korea and the North's willingness “to consider” this offer provide the basis, however tentative and contentious, for a negotiated solution to the current nuclear stand-off on the Korean Peninsula. But even if the North really does return to the bargaining table – and this is by no means assured – a long and difficult road lies ahead in the search for common ground between the two primary antagonists in this six-party drama. The key to a successful outcome remains the willingness of the other four actors – China, Japan, Russia, and especially South Korea – to stand firmly behind Washington's central demand: that Pyongyang “fully, verifiably, and irreversibly” abandon its nuclear weapons programs.
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, China, Israel, and Asia
5785. A Bittersweet Win For Mr. Koizumi
- Author:
- Brad Glosserman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Tokyo – In the end, the weather just wasn't bad enough. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated politics since 1955, claimed victory in Sunday's national election as it and its coalition partners took a comfortable majority in the Diet. Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro's celebrations have been muted, however: The LDP's failure to win an outright majority in the lower house will embolden obstructionists within his own party who oppose his reform agenda.
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Asia
5786. South Korea Must Play Bigger Role In Defense
- Author:
- James J. Przystup and William M. Drennan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Fifty years ago, the United States and South Korea signed a mutual defense treaty designed to meet the "common danger" posed by North Korea to the survival of the South and to vital U.S. interests. The golden anniversary should be cause for celebration, but hold the applause. The alliance is in serious trouble, and possibly terminal decline, unless urgent steps are taken to revitalize it.
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Asia, and South Korea
5787. What's at Stake in Japan's Elections?
- Author:
- Takao Toshikawa and Richard Katz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- In a series of newspaper advertisements, a few of Japan's more cosmopolitan business leaders, including Kazuo Inamori, founder of Kyocera, pointed to what's really at stake in the November 9 elections for the Lower House of Japan's Diet. "We support a nation where a change of government is possible," they wrote.
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Israel, and Asia
5788. Deepening America's Response to Terrorism
- Author:
- Patrick M. Cronin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Hidden away in President Bush's trip to Asia, especially his short stopover in Bali, are clues that the administration may be finally broadening and deepening its counter terror strategy. Unveiled during the president's trip is an investment of $157 million over the next six years to improve the quality of secular basic education and moderate the influence of extremist views in Islamic day and boarding schools –madrasahs and pesantren, respectively. The president's trip to the world's largest Muslim-majority country may not be remembered for education, but it should be.
- Topic:
- Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Asia
5789. China's Manned Space Program
- Author:
- Dean Cheng
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- In recent weeks, there has been mounting attention paid to the Chinese space program, as China prepares to join the United States and Russia in launching one of its citizens into outer space. This has been a long-standing goal of the Chinese space program, since at least the founding of the Space Flight Medical Research Center by Qian Xuesen, in 1968 (two years before China's first satellite was orbited). Indeed, it has become clear in recent years that the Chinese seriously considered trying to put a man in orbit early in the 1970s. an array of satellites that fulfill a variety of military missions, including reconnaissance, meteorology, and communications. The addition of a manned program does not provide significant additional advantage.
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Asia
5790. China's Great Power Diplomacy: Implications for the United States
- Author:
- James J. Przystup
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- During the 1990s, much of U.S. strategic thinking focused on China's emergence as a great power in East Asia – on the process of its becoming a great power. That thinking is now passé. Today, China is East Asia's great power.
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Asia
5791. China-ROK-U.S. Relations and Regional Security in Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Scott Snyder and Ah-Young Kim
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Security relationships in Northeast Asia have remained largely unchanged since the end of the Cold War. In this year's Special Annual Issue of Comparative Connections [http://www.csis.org/pacfor/annual/2003annual.html], we argue that cracks are appearing in the Cold War façade. In the 21stcentury, China-ROK-U.S. relations will shape the future direction of Northeast Asia, the Korean Peninsula, and the prospects for cooperation, conflict, and competition.
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Asia
5792. A Thaw in India-China Relations
- Author:
- Pramit Mitra
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The July 2003 state visit to China by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee of India, the first by an Indian prime minister in a decade, represented a major step forward in New Delhi's relations with its giant neighbor and competitor. Dramatic increases in bilateral trade set the stage for nine bilateral agreements covering trade, education, easing of visa regulations, and development projects. The artful language of the agreements suggested progress on the long-standing Sino-Indian border dispute. More substantial relations between India and China are good news for regional stability, although this relationship will remain wary, and China's strong interest in Pakistan will continue to be a constraint.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, China, India, and Asia
5793. The Changing Face of Russia-South Asia Relations
- Author:
- Kavita Sangani and Teresita C. Schaffer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Russia is broadening its relations with South Asia, as illustrated in the recent visits by Pakistan's President Musharraf to Russia and Russia's President Putin to India. Russia's long-standing ties with India are still driven by important defense links and shared hopes to create a multipolar world. Both countries are trying to breathe new life into their much-diminished economic relationship. Russia's new interest in Pakistan is driven largely by concerns about Islamic extremism and Central Asia. At a time when Russia's priorities are to a large extent internal, South Asia is a relatively accessible area for engaging in global geopolitics, but Russia is unlikely to become a major player in India- Pakistan diplomacy in the next few years.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, South Asia, and Asia
5794. In the Shadow of a Cease-fire: The Impacts of Small Arms Availability and Misuse in Sri Lanka
- Author:
- Chris Smith
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Sri Lanka appears to be entering the final chapter of the 20-year civil war between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Although it may be too early to assess, and the peace process is currently stalled, it does seem that the LTTE is more serious about a sustained peace process than at any time since the violence erupted in 1983.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Sri Lanka
5795. Policy Recommendations for the Third Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD III)
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The world is now several years into the twenty-first century. However, Africa remains a place faced with many difficulties, from violent conflicts to poverty and disease. A cursory examination of Africa today shows that the majority of the people in this region are not able to raise their incomes, and that the number of Africans living in poverty continues to increase, despite the fact that their countries receive considerable aid from the international community.
- Topic:
- Development, Human Welfare, and Non-Governmental Organization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Asia
5796. Yemen between Democratization and Prolonged Power
- Author:
- Hiroshi Matsumoto
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to present my own views on Yemen's moves to democratize. In order to do so, I will analyze a variety of issues related to the electoral system in Yemen and Yemeni political parties.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Asia
5797. Sino-Japanese Relations Entering A New Stage- With the Trend of the Times, Broader Perspective as A Fresh Starting Point
- Author:
- Yang Bojiang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Relations between China and Japan have weathered 30 turbulent years since the normalization of diplomatic ties in 1972. This period of 30 years can be divided roughly in half into the first and second parts. From 1972 to the late 1980s, when the world had the bipolar polygenetic political and military structures, the two countries took down the barriers of the Cold War to restore normal exchanges between the states and their cooperative relationship achieved rapid development in areas of trade, finance and technologies. In the period between the end of the Cold War and the present day, the bilateral relationship has entered the new stage where friction and collaboration coexist as do competition and cooperation amid the progress in political multipolarization and economic globalization of the world.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5798. Went for Cost, Stayed for Quality?: Moving the Back Office to India
- Author:
- Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Will the next great wave of globalization come in services? Increasingly, components of back-office services, such as payroll and order fulfillment, and some front-office services, such as customer care, are being relocated from the United States and other developed countries to English-speaking, developing nations—especially India, but also other nations, such as the Philippines. Though moving service activities offshore is not entirely new, the pace has quickened of late. The acceleration of this business process offshoring (BPO) is intertwined, though not synonymous, with another phenomenon, namely an increasing willingness by firms to outsource what formerly were considered core activities. It is significant that a substantial number of service activities might move offshore, because it was once thought that service jobs were the future growth area for developed country economies. Manufacturing, by contrast, would relocate to lower labor cost regions offshore. Notably, the services commonly known as “business processes” (BPs) are among the fastest growing job categories in the United States (Goodman and Steadman 2002). Should these jobs begin to move offshore, a new tendency may be under way in the global economy that will be as or more important than the relocation of manufacturing offshore, and might necessitate a rethinking of government policies across a wide spectrum.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- United States, India, Asia, and Philippines
5799. Emerging Third Stage Peri-Urbanization: Functional Specialization in the Hangzhou Peri-Urban Region
- Author:
- Douglas Webster, Jianming Cai, Binyi Luo, and Larisa Muller
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Hangzhou Municipality is the provincial capital of Zhejiang, on China's east coast. It forms part of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. Hangzhou was “opened up” in the mid-1980s, following Deng Xiaoping's visit to the South, resulting in an almost immediate flood of foreign and domestic investment in manufacturing. This initial investment was significantly in the peri-urban areas, i.e., outside the built-up area. The authors have been following development in the Hangzhou extended urban region, with emphasis on peri-urbanization processes, since 2000. A previous APARC discussion paper describes findings of preliminary field research on the Hangzhou–Ningbo Corridor, conducted in August 2000 and March 2001. The present paper zooms in on two peri-urban clusters in the Hangzhou extended urban region, and assesses their development over time. The goal of the research is to better understand how a peri-urban region changes—particularly in terms of firm evolution, labor characteristics, and spatial dynamics—as it becomes more economically and demographically mature. This paper also examines such changes in the context of the increasing cost structures and emerging competitors, primarily from other areas in China, that the Hangzhou peri-urban region now faces.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Maryland
5800. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Urban Dynamics in Chengdu, 1975–2002
- Author:
- Douglas Webster, Jianming Cai, Binyi Luo, Annemarie Schneider, and Karen C. Seto
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Chengdu, the provincial capital of Sichuan, has undergone rapid transformation during China's post-reform period between 1978 and 2003. One of the leading cities in southwest China, Chengdu is second only to Chongqing in population. Chengdu anchors one end of the Chongqing-Chengdu urban corridor, the fourth most populous urban cluster in China. Although the upgrading of Chongqing Municipality to the equivalent of provincial status in 1997 has increased the city's profile and potential as an administrative, land transportation, and manufacturing center, it is expected that Chengdu's regional and strategic importance as a service and high-tech center will increase in the future. With increased economic specialization among Chinese cities, it is expected that Chengdu and Chongqing cities will increasingly complement each other in terms of function, both enhancing their developmental prospects as a result. Further, the development of western China is a major objective of the Tenth Five Year Plan. The “Go West” policy was introduced in 1999.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Chongqing, and Chengdu