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2. India’s Food Security Resilience: Some Tips for ASEAN?
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The IMF recently lauded India’s food subsidies in helping minimise COVID-19’s impacts on food and economic insecurity. What are the lessons for ASEAN member states, where extreme poverty increased by 4.7 million amid the pandemic?
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Pandemic, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
3. Ukraine War and Food Security: How Should ASEAN Respond?
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- ASEAN should come together and assess what regional mechanisms it can leverage in addressing the looming threat of food trade protectionism within the region, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Conflict, Violence, Regionalism, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, and ASEAN
4. Global Food Insecurity – Food Import: Reducing ASEAN’s Dependency
- Author:
- Paul Teng
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The current food insecurity caused by the three Cs — COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and conflicts — has highlighted the reliance of many ASEAN states on imported staple food and feed. ASEAN needs to seriously re-examine its priorities to reduce import dependency.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
5. Next Steps for Disaster Resilience in ASEAN
- Author:
- Alistair D B Cook and Christopher Chen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The challenges posed in responding to natural hazards during the global COVID-19 pandemic were felt across Southeast Asia. As travel restrictions and supply chain disruptions ease up, it is time to revaluate disaster management and not simply revert to old ways.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Resilience, COVID-19, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
6. Korea’s Regional Cooperation and ODA Policy in Asia: Performance and Challenges
- Author:
- Aila Yoo and Yul Kwon
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing geopolitical conflicts have deteriorated socio-economic conditions all around the world. As developing countries in Asia have made enormous progress in economic and social development based on the stable ground for growth, the development gap within the region has also been expanded. In addition, the region’s socio-economic conditions have become worse after the pandemic. Along with the pandemic crisis, there are several issues that have negatively influenced the region’s sustainable growth, such as climate change and climate-related natural disasters, and conflicts. These multiple crises change the development needs in the region, and cannot be solved through the efforts of any sole country but must be tackled through regional cooperation. While Korea strengthens its strategic approach for regional economic cooperation to expand its partnership with emerging countries and its Official Development Assistance (ODA) volume is highly concentrated in Asia region, Korea still focuses on cooperation with each country based on priority countries’ Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) without any integrated regional cooperation strategy. Strengthening inclusive partnerships would be a key to reduce the development gap in the region, by supporting regional programs such as the ASEAN Connectivity and Mekong Subregion development projects. To improve policy coherence and tackle the region-wide problems, Korea should adopt an integrated regional cooperation approach by reflecting the characteristics of Asia. This study analyzes changes in the socio-economic conditions and development environment in the Asia region and provides policy implications for preparing regional cooperation strategy for Asia.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, Partnerships, Economic Cooperation, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
7. Pakistan’s Hard Policy Choices in Afghanistan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Islamabad must tread carefully with its long-time Taliban allies back in power in Kabul. Pitfalls lie ahead for Pakistan’s domestic security and its foreign relations. The Pakistani government should encourage Afghanistan’s new authorities down the path of compromise with international demands regarding rights and counter-terrorism.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Asia
8. New Dynamism in ASEAN and East Asia: The Role of the RCEP as a ‘Living’ Agreement
- Author:
- Shandre Mugan Thangavelu, Fukunari Kimura, and Dionisius Narjoko
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This policy brief highlights the importance of maintaining open regionalism and economic and regional integration for sustainable and inclusive regional and global growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia. With rising global uncertainties and global value chain (GVC) disruptions, the region requires a new economic and social agenda beyond trading arrangements, and the alignment of global, regional, and domestic policies and structural issues. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is expected to provide a new institutional framework under the built-in institutional feature (Chapter 18) of the agreement.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Global Value Chains
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
9. The Indo-Pacific Partnership and Digital Trade Rule Setting: Policy Proposals
- Author:
- Lurong Cheh
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The idea of the Indo-Pacific was borne from a global trend that has (re)oriented the centre of the world’s economic gravity to the East. Accelerating digital transformation to harness gains from technology are in countries’ common interests. The launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity tends to supplement economic benefits to the Indo-Pacific. Becoming more deeply involved in the digital economy will require Indo-Pacific members to commit to new international norms on digital trade, of which trade liberalisation of electronic transmissions, free flow of data with trust, cybersecurity, and intellectual property rights protection must be prioritised.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Digital Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Indo-Pacific
10. Japan and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
- Author:
- Mie Oba
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to clarify the role of Japan in the process leading up to the establishment of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). While emphasising that respect for the centrality of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was a principle of RCEP, Japan played a leading role in the process of RCEP negotiations. For Japan, RCEP is one of the fruits of its strategy in East Asia/Asia-Pacific that began the mid-1990s to protect and increase the interests and advantages of Japanese business and retain Japan’s political leverage in the region. When substantial negotiations for RCEP began in 2013, its importance for Japan was secondary to other free trade agreements (FTAs) including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, China–Japan–Korea FTA, and Japan–European Union FTA. However, the Government of Japan and the business community had set a lot of economic and strategic goals in promoting RCEP. After the withdrawal of the United States (US) from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, RCEP was seen as an essential framework for establishing a rules-based regional order in the Indo-Pacific region. Although it was after India’s withdrawal from the RCEP negotiations, Japan further emphasised the importance of RCEP as the measure to sustain and foster the rule-based regional order and simultaneously pursued the conclusion of negotiations and the establishment of high-level rules, achieving some success. Ultimately, the havoc brought about by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the sense of crisis in the traditional liberal international order caused by the intensifying strategic competition between the US and China, drove the conclusion of RCEP. RCEP will be increasingly important for economic order in Japan and Asia in the coming years. Ironically, as the strategic competition between the US and China escalates and leads to a surge in protectionism, the economic and strategic importance of RCEP – an FTA that incorporates China – is becoming more significant as a measure to counter unilateralism and protectionism. In addition, RCEP needs elements that address globalisation’s adverse effects and pitfalls, in areas such as the environment, labour rights, and a reduction in the disparity between the rich and poor.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
11. RCEP Services Liberalisation: Key Features and Implications
- Author:
- Ramonette B. Serafica and Intan Murnira Ramli
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The Trade in Services Chapter of the RCEP Agreement establishes the rules for the progressive liberalisation of trade in the region and sets out regulatory disciplines to mitigate barriers to competition. Considered the most significant feature of the RCEP agreement compared to other FTAs of ASEAN is the scheduling of market access commitments using the negative list approach. Thus, an immediate challenge for members that initially adopted the positive list is the transition to the negative list scheduling approach. Furthermore, members will need to implement competitive and robust regulations in liberalising services. Developing countries, especially LDCs, might also face capacity constraints to fully take advantage of the market access given by the RCEP partners.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Liberalism, and Progressivism
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
12. Potential Impact of RCEP and Structural Transformation on Cambodia
- Author:
- Shandre Mugan Thangavelu and Vutha Hing
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the potential impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on the Cambodian economy in terms of trade, output growth, and employment. It also provides quantitative (structural gravity model estimation and simulation) and qualitative trade policy evaluation in terms of exports, output, and the structural transformation of the economy in global and regional value chains. The results highlight the importance of RCEP for the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery and the structural transformation of the Cambodian economy. The paper also provides key policy recommendations to fully maximise the benefits of RCEP for Cambodia for inclusive and sustainable growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Global Value Chains
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Cambodia
13. The Implications of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) for Asian Regional Architecture
- Author:
- Shiro Armstrong and Peter Drysdale
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- East Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into force in 2022 as the world’s largest free trade agreement. RCEP was concluded, signed and brought into force in the face of major international uncertainty and is a significant boost to the global trading system. RCEP brings Australia, China, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand into the same agreement with the ten member ASEAN group at its centre. It keeps markets open and updates trade and investment rules in East Asia, a major centre of global economic activity, at a time of rising protectionism when the WTO itself is under threat. The agreement builds on ASEAN’s free trade agreements and strengthens ASEAN centrality. One of the pillars of RCEP is an economic cooperation agenda which has its antecedents in ASEAN’s approach to bringing along its least developed members and builds on the experience of capacity building in APEC and technical cooperation under the ASEAN Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement. There is an opportunity to create a framework that facilitates deeper economic cooperation that involves experience-sharing, extending RCEP’s rules and membership at the same time as strengthening political cooperation. The paper suggests some areas that might be best suited to cooperation — that is confidence and trust building instead of or before negotiation — and discusses how non-members such as India may be engaged and the membership expanded. Options such as multilateralising provisions and becoming a platform for policy convergence and coordinating unilateral reforms are canvassed.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Architecture
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
14. Restrictiveness of RCEP Rules of Origin: Implications for Global Value Chains in East Asia
- Author:
- Archanun Kohpaiboon and Juthatip Jongwanich
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This chapter aims to examine the restrictiveness of rules of origin (RoO) in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and other key multilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) in East Asia with a view to facilitating the operations of existing global value chains (GVCs). The analysis begins with dissecting PSRs in the RoO Chapter in these FTAs and quantifying them. The key finding is that product-specific rules in RCEP are the most flexible compared to the other multilateral FTAs and more facilitative to GVC operations. This is driven by RCEP-specific features, such as high intra-member trade and the member coverage. The main policy inference is that a full cumulation clause is needed in RCEP to allow a regional value content alternative to be in full effect. Harmonisation in RoO provision across these multilateral FTAs remains a challenge for ongoing negotiation. Monitoring the dynamics of RoO as well as the FTA utilisation is needed so that these multilateral FTAs could be a true stepping stone for trade liberalisation in the broader World Trade Organization multilateral trading system.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Global Value Chains
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
15. Centrality and Community: ASEAN in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
- Author:
- Soo Yeon Kim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) role in the formation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement. The RCEP project proceeded as trade governance has shifted from the multilateral trade regime under the World Trade Organization to free trade agreements and where the geopolitics of Asia has cast a shadow on the progress of regional integration efforts. The analysis in this paper focuses on ASEAN centrality, both as a concept and practice, in influencing the launch and progress of RCEP. Conceptually, ASEAN centrality is about the capacity of the 10-member group to help launch negotiations for the RCEP agreement and to shape its provisions for governing trade. In practice, the RCEP agreement consolidates and significantly unravels the numerous overlapping trade agreements between ASEAN, 38 in all between individual ASEAN members and its five RCEP partners, Australia, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand. The paper also examines the relationship between the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and RCEP. RCEP provides for further tariff liberalisation between ASEAN members and its five RCEP partners and thus expands the zone of preferential treatment for goods exported from ASEAN and other RCEP members. RCEP also consolidates rules of origin requirements under one agreement, providing for diagonal cumulation and common rules of cumulation for agreement partners. The RCEP provisions can greatly facilitate production and trade along regional supply chains, thus accelerating the progress of the AEC as a single market and production base. Moving forwards, RCEP and ASEAN’s place in it, is likely to be shaped by challenges and opportunities from the Comprehensive and Progressive Transpacific Partnership and the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) initiative. The ASEAN members with overlapping membership in the IPEF and RCEP will be pivotal in determining areas of cooperation. Regional integration will thus continue to be shaped by ASEAN centrality, and its progress will shape the ASEAN community.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
16. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Economic Backgrounds of ASEAN and Its Dialogue Partners
- Author:
- Keita Oikawa, Fusanori Iwasaki, and Shujiro Urata
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- We overview the economic backgrounds of the countries participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations and two Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Dialogue Partners – the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) – to understand their economic relationships before the signing of the RCEP and their economic interests in the RCEP. We discover that the 16 countries participating in RCEP negotiations vary in terms of economic size, income level, growth pattern, share of trade in the economy, and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Additionally, both lower- and higher-income ASEAN Member States (AMS) have received a large amount of FDI, in contrast to Japan and the Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea), which have seen more FDI outflows from their countries than inflows. In terms of bilateral FDI inflows and outflows, as a centre for regional FDI, Singapore attracts FDI from developed countries (including the US and the EU) and reinvests it in India and other AMS. As an FDI hub, Singapore promotes liberalised regional markets to attract advanced country investors. By examining bilateral trade relationships, we find that as the centre of manufacturing in the world, ASEAN and China have participated in international production networks that also include Japan and Korea since 2000. Japan and Korea have maintained competitiveness in intermediate goods in the region’s production networks, while China notably exports final products to the US and the EU. Amongst the 16 countries participating in RCEP negotiations, India has not had a significant presence in the production networks. Indeed, India has expanded its bilateral trade deficit with China, which probably caused India to withdraw from RCEP negotiations to protect its manufacturing industry. Simulation results of the impacts of the RCEP, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (Global Trade Analysis Project model), show that the countries participating in RCEP negotiations – particularly the less developed AMS – would gain greatly from lowering services trade costs and investment liberalisation. India would also gain significantly from the RCEP. In contrast, countries not participating in RCEP negotiations (the US and the EU) would experience small negative impacts of the RCEP through trade diversion effects.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
17. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, ASEAN’s Agency, and the Role of ASEAN Members in Shaping the Regional Economic Order
- Author:
- Huong Le Thu
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – a mega free trade agreement comprising 15 countries – the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States and the dialogue partners (China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia, and New Zealand) was finalised in November 2020. This paper looks at the process of the RCEP negotiations as an example of an ASEAN exercising agency. This paper also argues that RCEP asserts the agency of smaller powers within the trade network – ASEAN and its member states – particularly the more active role of individual members, including Viet Nam and Singapore amongst the most diplomatically supportive of the deal. The circumstances under which RCEP came to life is not trivial. Under Viet Nam’s ASEAN chair in 2020, and amidst the global pandemic, RCEP was finalised. RCEP’s political and geo-economic significance arguably can overtake its economic role. In the time of great power competition where China becomes one of the key economic centres of the world, and the United States (US) competes with a vision of Indo-Pacific, the region’s middle and smaller powers are anxious about becoming ‘collateral damage’, particularly in the process of US–China ‘decoupling’. The ASEAN countries have emphasised the reluctance to ‘choose a side’. RCEP shows that they can show agency in carrying out trade liberalisation at the time when the global leader of the US in this field is missing. A mega-trade deal can be successfully led by smaller, and even developing, economies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, Social Order, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
18. Trade Facilitation in RCEP Countries
- Author:
- Weixiang Wang and Shandre Mugan Thangavelu
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The trade facilitation under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is critical for regional trade and economic cooperation amongst the 15 member countries. This chapter examines the trade facilitation under RCEP using the available datasets on the trade facilitation index and compares the current trends in trade facilitation across RCEP countries in terms of four dimensions: the World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement, digital trade streamlining, ease of doing business, and trade logistics performance. The study finds that RCEP countries have improved significantly in trade facilitation measures, but they vary across the countries. For example, China should further enhance its performance in cross-border paperless trade, whilst the Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries should improve their performance in the documentary compliance of trade, the infrastructure of trade, and trade logistics performance.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
19. Opportunities and Challenges for ASEAN and East Asia from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on E-Commerce
- Author:
- Jane Kelsey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a microcosm of the current tensions in negotiations on digital trade involving parties that have divergent positions on the digital economy, data, and regulation, including within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) itself. It adopts a prudent approach that recognises the state parties need flexibility and policy space at the national and regional levels to develop of policy and regulation in the rapidly changing digital ecosystem and seeks to advance their collective interests through dialogue and cooperation. This paper contrasts that approach with the disciplinary nature of binding legal obligations that are enforceable by other states and their investors, as in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and similar recent treaties. The analysis of key differences focuses on matters of particular importance to ASEAN, such as local content and government procurement, data rules and flexibilities, financial data, source codes, and transparency. RCEP’s cautious approach enables ASEAN members to deepen their national and regional understanding of the opportunities and challenges these agreements present, whilst developing and implementing their own digital development strategies. Yet those good efforts may be undermined through the binding and enforceable trade in services rules.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, Digital Economy, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
20. The Investment Chapter in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Enhanced Rules without Enforcement Mechanism
- Author:
- Henry Gao
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the legal rules in the investment chapter in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). It starts with an overview and summary of the main provisions in the chapter, followed by an assessment of the rules by comparing established free trade agreements (FTAs), especially the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership. In particular, it notes that the chapter, whilst largely following the established approaches to investment in other FTAs, also includes important twists to the common rules to favour the host states. The last part discusses the conspicuous absence of an investor–state dispute settlement mechanism, its pros and cons, and wider implications on regional integration, then concludes with some thoughts on future developments.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, Economic Cooperation, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
21. How Preferential are RCEP Tariffs?
- Author:
- Kazunobu Hayakawa
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This study discusses the extent to which the tariffs provided in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are preferential. RCEP does not necessarily adopt a common concession rule in tariffs, and the speed and depth of tariff reduction/elimination also differ by country. We show that RCEP tariffs become the best choice in trading some specific products with some specific countries in some specific years. Furthermore, there are some specific cases where the use of RCEP tariffs becomes beneficial even if RCEP tariffs are not lower. Therefore, we demonstrate that RCEP tariffs are beneficial in specific types of supply chains. In short, this study aims to enhance our comprehensive understanding of how preferential RCEP tariffs are compared with other types of available tariffs.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Tariffs, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
22. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement and Europe: Impact and Implications
- Author:
- Haans Gunther Hilpert
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- In the first 2 decades of the millennium, European Union (EU) trade policy underwent historic changes, amongst them an explicit pivot to Asia. Along with continued firm support of the rules-based World Trade Organization (WTO)-centred multilateral trading system, important new directions in the EU’s trade policy included a turn to competitive bilateralism, a strong focus on values, an ambition to protect and to promote European trade standards as well as the politicisation of trade policy. Asia’s outwards looking economic growth, the increasing trade interdependence in Asia as well as the various bilateral and multilateral trade agreements in the region, notably amongst them the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), attracted the EU’s attention, and have helped cause and drive these changes. There was no particular Asian influence on the EU’s own regionalisation, however. Meanwhile, trade and investment relations between Europe and Asia have intensified greatly over this period. But the EU has been slow and late to formulate a comprehensive strategy for the Indo-Pacific region. In spite of some notable successes, the EU’s trade policy remains fragmented with differentiated approaches for each trading partner. Opinions on the RCEP’s relevance and importance for Europe are divided. RCEP sceptics point to the overall shallow nature of the agreement. RCEP optimists emphasise the future potential of trade and investment integration within the newly established RCEP economic area and warn of the discriminatory effects for Europe’s economy and businesses. So, Europe’s business will have to invest in the new RCEP free trade zone to overcome trade diversion risks and to benefit from the RCEP market integration. More worrying from Europe’s perspective is RCEP’s potentially negative policy impacts: a relative loss in the EU’s trading power, the risk of Europe being sidelined in the make-up of future trade rules, and RCEP’s future impact on rules based multilateralism and the WTO. The EU has various trade policy options with regard to the Indo-Pacific trade area and RCEP in particular. The most promising options include the conclusion of free trade agreements with as many RCEP member countries as possible, with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as a group (as a region-to-region agreement), with other trading partners (from the Indo-Pacific or from other world regions), or with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Transpacific Partnership area.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
23. The Story of RCEP: History, Negotiations, Structure, and Future Directions
- Author:
- Aladdin D. Rillo, Anna Maria Rosario D. Robeniol, and Salvador Buban
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper is about the story of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), including the history, dynamics of negotiations, and structure of this multilateral framework. Issues related to ASEAN centrality, sensitivities of negotiations, and other challenges are also highlighted and analysed. Nearly a decade in the making, RCEP represents a significant achievement for the region. As an ASEAN-led process, RCEP supports not only the region’s market integration but as well as ASEAN’s economic relations with the rest of the world, particularly with the 5 RCEP FTA Partners. Beyond the impact of RCEP in supporting the multilateral trading system, it is also intended to address the current challenges in the region, including the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Thus, the narrative of RCEP provides a comprehensive overview of, and considers the potential implications for, trade in the region; for economic integration, and for the future of trade policy.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
24. Comparison of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Other Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)
- Author:
- Innwon Park
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This study evaluates the desirability of RCEP by comparing it with other mega-lateral FTAs. Evaluating the member-specific scale effects of the FTAs, we find that RCEP will generate significantly larger gains compared with the CPTPP. Evaluation of the provision-specific depth effects of RCEP suggests the possibility of positive gains but these gains may not be significant compared with those derived from the CPTPP. The existing CGE model analyses reveal that RCEP will generate greater gains than the CPTPP. RCEP will be more desirable for China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea and the estimated gains for ASEAN will notably increase as the model explicitly specifies the diagonal ROO cumulation scheme. Considering the sequence of implementing FTAs, we find that the CPTPP will generate greater gains for dual members, but the marginal gains enjoyed by RCEP members will not be substantial.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Free Trade, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
25. The Post COVID-19 and RCEP: Pandemic Recovery in East Asia
- Author:
- Shandre Mugan Thangavelu, Shujiro Urata, and Dionisius Narjoko
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The paper examines the impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on the COVID-19 pandemic recovery of the East Asian countries. Recent studies highlight the positive gains from the RCEP agreement for all 15 of its member countries (Itakura, 2022, Petri and Plummer, 2020; Park, 2022). However, the recovery will be not even across East Asia. The East Asian countries of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (CJK) are likely to have the largest gains, as these countries dominate the regional global value chain (GVC) activities. The ASEAN least developed countries of Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), and Myanmar also experience positive gains from RCEP, but need to undertake deeper structural reforms to fully benefit from the agreement. The RCEP framework has elements that will be crucial for the post-pandemic recovery and regional transformation: (i) accelerating and enhancing GVC activities through the single rule-of-origin framework for the 15 RCEP member countries and CJK (China, Japan, and Korea) effects; (ii) services liberalisation and digital transformation in the key services trade of e-commerce, financial, professional, and telecommunications services; (iii) economic cooperation amongst the 15 RCEP member countries to address key contingency issues such as mass vaccination and health infrastructure, protocols for the movement of people, and trade capacity building for ASEAN least developed countries; and (iv) the ‘living’ nature of the RCEP agreement will be able to create a wider regional integration agenda to address key contemporary issues such as environment and climate change, skills development, green transformation, and developing digital and smart urban centres. ASEAN centrality, as highlighted by the RCEP framework, is critical for the post-pandemic recovery and structural transformation of the region.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Recovery, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
26. Australia’s Interests in East Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
- Author:
- Shiro Armstrong
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement was seen as important for Australia economically and politically from its inception. RCEP economies account for roughly two-thirds of Australia’s total trade and being part of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led initiative that progressed broader East Asian economic integration was consistent with the structure of Australia’s trade interests and with Australia’s support for the multilateral trading system. Australia has a track record of pursuing regional cooperation that supports multilateral trade and for supporting regional integration that is outward oriented. RCEP became more important economically, politically, and strategically throughout its negotiations. It furthered East Asian economic integration that avoided fragmentation but also to entrench the ASEAN Economic Community project. Concluding RCEP took on greater importance and urgency as a ballast against the rising protectionism globally in the latter half of 2010. The ASEAN–Australia–New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) included an economic cooperation agenda focused on capacity building that was seen as a success for its members and shaped Australia’s approach and support towards economic cooperation being a pillar of RCEP. Negotiations for RCEP were chaired and led by Indonesia and ASEAN. Australia played a proactive role in pushing for high standards – credible market access commitments and new rules – in negotiations. Australia was one of the RCEP member countries that was also negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in parallel. The interest in the TPP was to keep the United States productively engaged in the region and to further rule-making and liberalisation amongst the TPP members. Having overlapping membership between the TPP and RCEP would mean that there was less chance of significant divergence or inconsistencies between them, although the approach differed. The deterioration of Australia’s economic and political relationship with China makes the RCEP framework potentially more important for facilitating the rebuilding of trust and confidence.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Australia, and ASEAN
27. China and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: An Economic and Political Perspective
- Author:
- Zhang Yunling
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper studies China’s policies and participation in East Asian economic integration and cooperation. The progress of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is remarkable in the time when global as well as regional economies are facing so many challenges. China as the largest economy in East Asia plays a key role in sustaining regional dynamism. China is active and constructive in initiating the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN+1) free trade agreements (FTAs) and an integrated framework of FTAs in East Asia. As RCEP was initiated by ASEAN and supported strongly by China it is essential to keep East Asian economic dynamism: the conclusion of the RCEP negotiations and the implementation has great effects. China’s gains from RCEP are not just economic, but also political. Whilst this paper focuses on economic gains for China, it also analyses the political gains for China, for example, against ‘decoupling’ and political division, which is harmful to East Asian integration and cooperation. The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is still ongoing, so the timely enforcement of RCEP is important as it gives confidence to the region to keep the region open and to work together to make East Asia dynamic in facing the challenges. Some challenges for East Asia are (i) how to rebuild the supply chains that are either weakened or broken by the pandemic; (ii) how to overcome the new barriers created by government policies in the name of ‘national security’ both in trade and investment areas; and (iii) how to overcome the new divisions created by the United States’ policy under its comprehensive strategic competition with China that leads to the exclusive arrangements in East Asia. East Asian economic integration and cooperation are based on two basic principles: openness and inclusiveness. As a region with great diversity, it is crucial to provide opportunities for all parties with difference. China will continue its open policy and actively participate in multilateral and regional arrangements, and as the largest economy in East Asia it serves as a key pillar to be a centre of the global economy. China will take RCEP as an essential framework to enhance its interest and role in East Asia, as well as in the Asia-Pacific against a politically oriented Indo-Pacific initiative.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Regionalism, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and ASEAN
28. Heyday of Asian Regionalism? The Implications of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership for the United States
- Author:
- Mireya Solís
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the implications of the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) for the United States (US). Traditionally, trade policy has been central to the United States’ aim to position itself as a Pacific power and architect of the evolving regional economic architecture. Over the years, however, US trade strategy has evolved in distinct ways: from an emphasis on bilateral trade negotiations and open regionalism (in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation [APEC] forum) to the pursuit of a high-standard transregional trade agreement (in the Trans-Pacific Partnership [TPP]); and more recently under the Trump administration the pursuit of unilateralism and the resort to tariffs as a form of leverage vis-à-vis competitors (China) and partners (allies in Europe and Asia) alike. When the RCEP negotiations launched, there was little concern in US policymaking circles that the emerging trade grouping in Asia could be disadvantageous for the US given that the TPP project was an effective vehicle to advance the US vision for quality economic integration and to cement its position in the dynamic Asian region. However, the US withdrawal from the TPP and the successful conclusion of the RCEP talks (even with the absence of India) have changed that calculus. This paper identifies three main implications of RCEP for the United States at this juncture: growing marginalisation from intra-Asian trade, diminished rulemaking capabilities as alternative standards disseminate widely in the region, and lessened diplomatic clout as the United States struggles to incorporate trade liberalisation into its Asia policy. A fourth possible consequence – a renewed interest in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive for Trans-Pacific Partnership – has not materialised. Instead, the Biden administration is developing an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework that will not include market access negotiations but will focus instead on issues such as supply chain resilience, infrastructure, and the digital economy. The ability of the United States to offer a compelling plan of economic engagement with the region is in question, raising the spectre of marginalisation whilst Asian regionalism makes strides.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, United States of America, and ASEAN
29. Changes in Trade and Investment Policies in Thailand and the Implications for Medium-term Growth
- Author:
- Archanun Kohpaiboon and Juthatip Jongwanich
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- his paper addresses the noticeable changes in trade and investment policies in Thailand in the new millennium and assesses their impact. These changes began with trade policy changes from the World Trade Organization to free trade agreement (FTA)-induced liberalisation, followed by changes in investment policies, all of which are to boost firms’ productivity and medium-term growth. Our results suggest that the policy changes are yet to produce the output the government expects. The signed FTAs’ impact on trade has been limited so far and has occurred selectively on certain product lines, as did the FTA-induced direct investment. Similarly, changes in investment policies had the impact of enticing direct investment but this varied across investors’ nationalities. The impact on firm productivity is also limited and found only for investment promotion policies. Our analysis highlights the role of traditional tools, i.e. trade openness, research and development, and skills upgrading, in fostering firm productivity. Whilst FTAs and investment promotion could be used as a catalyst for firms to enhance productivity, other supporting factors are also needed.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Investment, Free Trade, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
30. Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States, 1990‒2021
- Author:
- Masahito Ambashi, Fusanori Iwasaki, and Keita Oikawa
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- In this study, economic shocks on six selected Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States (i.e. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam) are analysed in three dimensions: global, domestic, and uncertainty. Annual actual and prediction values from 1990–2021 macroeconomic indicators – from international organisations such as the Asian Development Bank – were collected, and macroeconomic shocks were calculated based on prediction errors (i.e. actual values minus prediction values). The first finding is that if prediction errors of the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates are negative, on average, the countries were significantly subjected to negative economic shocks that were not anticipated. Second, according to a correlation analysis of the actual values and prediction errors of real GDP growth rates, economic fluctuations and shocks are highly synchronised within the countries as well as with the world, as previous literature has indicated. Finally, by conducting regression analyses regarding the prediction error of real GDP growth rates separately for each country, (i) variations of the global real GDP growth rate are positively associated with countries’ economic shocks; (ii) the previous estimates have different quantitative significance amongst the countries; (iii) residual variations approximate country-specific, domestic shocks; and (iv) global and country-level uncertainty indices are correlated with negative economic shocks in some countries. Based on this dataset, the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic is also reviewed, and economic and historical backgrounds are examined that caused past economic shocks to these ASEAN Member States.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, Macroeconomics, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
31. Gendering the Indo-Pacific Dialogue: Opportunities for India and Australia
- Author:
- Priyanka Bhide
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- Viewing the confluence of the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean as a distinctive and interdependent strategic and economic space is fundamentally changing the way both India and Australia think about and examine their relationship with the broader region.i The Indo-Pacific as a strategic construct has grown in prominence in global geopolitical discourse, especially over the last five years. The EU, USA, and several countries in Europe have in place or are developing their own strategies for engagement in the Indo-Pacific region. The European Union collectively advocates for a ‘Free and Open Indo- Pacific’, designed to foster a ‘rules-based international order, a level playing field, as well as an open and fair environment for trade and investment, tackling climate change and supporting connectivity.’ii For France, the Indo-Pacific is at the heart of its vision for a stable multipolar order, and the Indo-Pacific is listed as a ‘priority and essential partner’.iii Germany too is making an active contribution to shaping the international order in the Indo-Pacific, so that it is ‘based on rules and international cooperation, not on the law of the strong.’iv The significance of the construct is varied for countries that are part of the region. The scope of the conversation in the Indo-Pacific is widening, with more diverse and varied perspectives being brought to the forefront. In this paper, against the backdrop of global Feminist Foreign Policy conversations, we focus on how Australia and India view the Indo-Pacific; marking the shifts in both countries’ approaches, along with bringing in important aspects of their bilateral relationship, highlighting how the Indo-Pacific has grown in significance to become a foreign policy priority, how both India and Australia have incorporated a gender lens in their actions, and what could be the avenues for Australia and India to apply such a lens in their collaborations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Strategic Interests, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- India, Asia, and Australia
32. The Complexity Effect in U.S.-Turkey Relations: The Restructuring of the Middle East Regional Security
- Author:
- Devrim Sahin and Ahmet Sözen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This paper proposes a discussion of its core theoretical argument that the international order is more complex than the theories generated by traditionalist state-centric approaches and critical approaches, including the regional security complex approach. The complexity approach highlights the sensitive dependency of complex systems on the nonlinear feedback loops and dynamic interactions by which the longer term reactions to the behavior of actors could set off actions-reaction spirals. This path dependency is evident in the erosion of U.S.-Turkey relations which is a cause and a consequence of the realignment in the international system and the Middle East regional system.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Asia, North America, and United States of America
33. Small State Dilemma: Cambodia Between The Asean And China In The Indo-Pacific Context
- Author:
- Khath Bunthorn
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- As a small state, Cambodia viewed the ASEAN and China as almost equally important pillars of its foreign policy. Amid the intense strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, Cambodia faced the dilemma of how to maintain the ASEAN centrality without diplomatic cost to its key ally China, and how to balance its national interest with regional interest. In this context, the article aimed to explain the importance of the ASEAN as a cornerstone of Cambodia’s foreign policy, examine the motivations of Cambodia’s deep political embrace of the Asian giant, and underline its implications for the Indo-Pacific from the lens of small state foreign policy. The article was based on qualitative, empirical analysis that comprises primary and secondary data pertinent to the current topic. The article concluded that Cambodia leaned more towards China than it did towards the ASEAN, thus weakening its centrality in driving the broader regional architecture and that domestic politics was the primary driving force of Cambodia’s foreign policy towards that direction. At this juncture, Cambodia should step back from the present degree of its strategic engagement with China and look for ways to diversify its relations with other major powers while getting back on the democratic path and upholding human rights.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Cambodia, Indo-Pacific, and ASEAN
34. Assessing the Effects of Trade Liberalization With Third Countries: The Case of the Eurasian Economic Union
- Author:
- Simon Sngryan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- The processes of objectively conditioned integration in the economic, political, legal, and institutional spheres of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) Member States took place step by step, starting from preferential trade agreements, passing to the customs union, the common market and other stages of integration. This process is accompanied by the gradual deepening of trade liberalization with potential partners. The selection of potential partners should be carried out through a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the structure and volumes of foreign trade of the EEU Member States (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia) with third parties, their markets structure, existing customs regulation, trade barriers, and possible export potential. The research evaluated the EEU's possible enlargement effects on the Member States' economic indicators. The research aimed to assess the possible consequences of EEU expansion and signing free trade agreements, considering Pakistan, Korea, and Malaysia as potential trade partners. Modeling the effect of an FTA assumes horizontal zeroing of tariffs between partners. Then, using the GTAP model, a new state of general equilibrium was calculated corresponding to the changed parameters of customs and tariff regulation. In this case, most variables, such as change in GDP, production output, and export-import volumes, were estimated, manifesting the economic effect of trade liberalization.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Trade Liberalization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eurasia, and Asia
35. ‘Strasbourg’ in the South Caucasus: The EU’s Opportunities, Obstacles, and Incentives
- Author:
- Rick Fawn
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Implausible might be the hyperbole of “once in a generation.” Occasionally, overstatement is legitimate and necessary. Just as the Baku‑Tbilisi‑Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline revolutionized development and income in the South Caucasus a generation ago, so too (and more) are the prospects of reconstruction in the region due to Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War. The possibilities for win‑win progress and growth are truly unprecedented. Hyperbolic hope faces challenges, and they need reconciliation with the unprecedented opportunities now recasting the South Caucasus— with potential betterment of the peoples and countries of the region, and even for the wider world. This essay first considers the momentous changes already underway as well as the significances they portend. It then assesses obstacles, and thereafter suggests ‘Strasbourg’ as a multi‑faceted label for contributions both to overcome them and help to realize fully the ambitions for this region. To be precise: ‘Strasbourg’ here means the physical, technological, and financial involvement of the EU in regional infrastructural development, including linkages of the South Caucasus more widely, and also as a metaphor for deep‑seated, historically truthful reconciliation. (In the Summer 2021 edition of Baku Dialogues, elements of both meanings were put forward by F. Murat Özkaleli in an article titled “Winning the Peace” and are built upon here.) This thinking takes even greater significance as Euro‑Atlantic planning will concentrate on redefining relations in this region due to conflict over Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Caucasus, and Asia
36. Global Health Security COVID-19 and Its Impacts – Rebuilding Regional Economies: Role of Female Labour
- Author:
- Tamara Nair and Phidel Marion G. Vineles
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Increasing women’s participation in regional economies will result in ASEAN’s sustainable economic growth, as part of post COVID-19 rebuilding. Hence, greater efforts must be made to advance women’s broader economic participation to achieve dynamic, resilient, and inclusive regional economies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Gender Issues, Regional Cooperation, Labor Issues, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
37. Vietnam Tacks Between Cooperation and Struggle in the South China Sea
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Together with the Philippines, Vietnam is on the front line of maritime disputes with China. The risk of armed confrontation is low but growing. Hanoi should redouble efforts to build confidence, starting with less sensitive issues, and to establish an effective Code of Conduct.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Maritime Commerce, Maritime, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Vietnam, Philippines, South China Sea, and Oceania
38. Takeaways From a Time of Increased Friction: South Korea-Japan Security Cooperation From 2015 to Present
- Author:
- Naoko Aoki
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- South Korea and Japan share common challenges and liberal democratic values but have been unable to build a close security relationship, due mainly to their political differences. This paper examines the two countries’ defense cooperation in the bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral arenas over the past six years to explore how the external security environment, as well as bilateral political problems, have affected their joint activities. The paper’s analysis shows that defense cooperation between South Korea and Japan is not always a binary choice between full cooperation or no cooperation. The two countries not only weigh external threats and bilateral problems, but also ponder such factors as U.S. encouragement to adjust the scope of their cooperation. The paper also shows that while the main constraint for security cooperation between South Korea and Japan is their historical animosity, in recent years, frictions involving the countries’ armed forces have become a new reason for limiting cooperation. As a result, grassroots military-to-military exchanges between the two countries, which in the past continued despite political problems, have largely stopped since late 2018. The paper concludes by proposing that South Korea and Japan work to restore routine bilateral working-level exchanges. It also recommends that the United States continue to urge the two countries to cooperate, and that multilateral exercises be employed as forums for cooperation between the two armed forces, as that is an area that is least impacted by bilateral problems.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and South Korea
39. Takeaways From a Time of Increased Friction: South Korea-Japan Security Cooperation From 2015 to Present
- Author:
- Naoko Aoki
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- South Korea and Japan share common challenges and liberal democratic values but have been unable to build a close security relationship, due mainly to their political differences. This paper examines the two countries’ defense cooperation in the bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral arenas over the past six years to explore how the external security environment, as well as bilateral political problems, have affected their joint activities. The paper’s analysis shows that defense cooperation between South Korea and Japan is not always a binary choice between full cooperation or no cooperation. The two countries not only weigh external threats and bilateral problems, but also ponder such factors as U.S. encouragement to adjust the scope of their cooperation. The paper also shows that while the main constraint for security cooperation between South Korea and Japan is their historical animosity, in recent years, frictions involving the countries’ armed forces have become a new reason for limiting cooperation. As a result, grassroots military-to-military exchanges between the two countries, which in the past continued despite political problems, have largely stopped since late 2018. The paper concludes by proposing that South Korea and Japan work to restore routine bilateral working-level exchanges. It also recommends that the United States continue to urge the two countries to cooperate, and that multilateral exercises be employed as forums for cooperation between the two armed forces, as that is an area that is least impacted by bilateral problems.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
40. Trilateral Cooperation Between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Georgia
- Author:
- Dr. Richard Weitz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Georgia have achieved unprecedented levels of economic and security collaboration. Through this expanding cooperation, the three countries have established themselves as a collective hub of Eurasian energy extraction and multi‑model transportation. Their growing ties have accelerated since the opening of the Baku‑Tbilisi‑Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline in 2006 to extend to the construction of additional pipelines, the launching in 2017 of the Baku‑Tbilisi‑Kars (BTK) railway, the holding of regular trilateral military exercises, and the convening of frequent high‑level leadership meetings. The South Caucasus remains one of the world’s most complex geopolitical regions, with several external powers competing for regional influence.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Asia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, North America, and United States of America
41. The Philippines’ Dilemma: How to Manage Tensions in the South China Sea
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The maritime dispute between China and the Philippines is simmering against the backdrop of strategic competition between Beijing and Washington. To keep tensions below boiling point, Manila should push for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea as well as greater regional cooperation.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Philippines
42. Vietnam Tacks Between Cooperation and Struggle in the South China Sea
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Together with the Philippines, Vietnam is on the front line of maritime disputes with China. The risk of armed confrontation is low but growing. Hanoi should redouble efforts to build confidence, starting with less sensitive issues, and to establish an effective Code of Conduct.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, Maritime, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Vietnam
43. How ASEAN Can Improve Its Response to the Economic Crisis Generated by the COVID-19 Pandemic: Inputs drawn from a comparative analysis of the ASEAN and EU responses
- Author:
- Antonio Fanelli
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper conducts a comparative review of the evolution of the economic crisis generated by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the responses enacted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the European Union. It highlights differences and common elements in the strategic approaches, the intensity of the interventions, and governance structures. In the final section, it identifies short- and medium-term actions, inspired by the comparative analysis, which could contribute to improve the ASEAN response.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Governance, European Union, Leadership, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia
44. Economic and Emission Impact of Australia–China Trade Disruption: Implication for Regional Economic Integration
- Author:
- Xunpeng Shi, Tsun Se Cheong, and Michael Zhou
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This study examines the debates on supply chain resilience and the economic and emissions impact of supply chain rerouting using Australia and China trade as an example. The estimations demonstrate that, in both export and import cases, a trade embargo between Australia and China, despite being compensated by alternative supply chains, will cause gross domestic product loss and emissions increases for both countries. Moreover, even if all other countries gain from the markets left by China, many of them suffer from overall gross domestic product loss and emissions increase. The findings that ASEAN and China may also suffer from an Australia–China trade embargo, despite a gain in trade volume, suggests that no country should add fuel to the fire. The results suggest that countries need to defend rules-based trading regimes and continuously promote regional economic integration.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Economy, Global Value Chains, Carbon Emissions, and Economic Integration
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Australia, and Southeast Asia
45. East Asian Integration and Its Main Challenge: NTMs in Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, and New Zealand
- Author:
- Yan Lili Ing and Grace Hadiwidjaja
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- While East Asia has been moving forward with its regional integration agenda, one main challenge remains and is growing – non-tariff measures (NTMs). Animal, vegetable, and food products tend to be more regulated than other products, largely due to quality and safety standards. NTMs affect 66%–98% of total trade in those sectors. Our paper presents the frequency index, coverage ratio, and prevalence score to measure NTMs in the region. They are highest amongst food, vegetable, and animal products; and vary amongst other products, depending on the economy. We find that the high frequency index of NTMs does not necessarily translate to a high value of coverage ratio for trade. One explanation could be that countries tend to regulate imported goods which compete with the domestic products more than imported goods which they need.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Tariffs, Non-Tariff Measures, and Economic Integration
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, India, Asia, South Korea, Australia, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand
46. Gains Associated with Linking the EU and Chinese ETS under Different Assumptions on Restrictions, Allowance Endowments, and international Trade
- Author:
- Malte Winkler, Sonja Peterson, and Sneha Thube
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Linking the EU and Chinese Emission Trading Systems (ETS) increases the cost-efficiency of reaching greenhouse gas mitigation targets, but both partners will benefit – if at all – to different degrees. Using the global computable-general equilibrium (CGE) model DART Kiel, we evaluate the effects of linking ETS in combination with 1) restricted allowances trading, 2) adjusted allowance endowments to compensate China, and 3) altered Armington elasticities when Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets are met. We find that generally, both partners benefit from linking their respective trading systems. Yet, while the EU prefers full linking, China favors restricted allowance trading. Transfer payments through adjusted allowance endowments cannot sufficiently compensate China so as to make full linking as attractive as restricted trading. Gains associated with linking increase with higher Armington elasticities for China, but decrease for the EU. Overall, the EU and China favor differing options of linking ETS. Moreover, heterogeneous impacts across EU countries could cause dissent among EU regions, potentially increasing the difficulty of finding a linking solution favorable for all trading partners.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
47. The Long Search for Stability: Financial Cooperation to Address Global Risks in the East Asian Region
- Author:
- C. P. Chandrasekhar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- Forced by the 1997 Southeast Asian crisis to recognize the external vulnerabilities that openness to volatile capital flows result in and upset over the post-crisis policy responses imposed by the IMF, countries in the sub-region saw the need for a regional financial safety net that can pre-empt or mitigate future crises. At the outset, the aim of the initiative, then led by Japan, was to create a facility or design a mechanism that was independent of the United States and the IMF, since the former was less concerned with vulnerabilities in Asia than it was in Latin America and that the latter’s recommendations proved damaging for countries in the region. But US opposition and inherited geopolitical tensions in the region blocked Japan’s initial proposal to establish an Asian Monetary Fund, a kind of regional IMF. As an alternative, the ASEAN+3 grouping (ASEAN members plus China, Japan and South Korea) opted for more flexible arrangements, at the core of which was a network of multilateral and bilateral central bank swap agreements. While central bank swap agreements have played a role in crisis management, the effort to make them the central instruments of a cooperatively established regional safety net, the Chiang Mai Initiative, failed. During the crises of 2008 and 2020 countries covered by the Initiative chose not to rely on the facility, preferring to turn to multilateral institutions such as the ADB, World Bank and IMF or enter into bilateral agreements within and outside the region for assistance. The fundamental problem was that because of an effort to appease the US and the IMF and the use of the IMF as a foil against the dominance of a regional power like Japan, the regional arrangement was not a real alternative to traditional sources of balance of payments support. In particular, access to significant financial assistance under the arrangement required a country to be supported first by an IMF program and be subject to the IMF’s conditions and surveillance. The failure of the multilateral effort meant that a specifically Asian safety net independent of the US and the IMF had to be one constructed by a regional power involving support for a network of bilateral agreements. Japan was the first regional power to seek to build such a network through it post-1997 Miyazawa Initiative. But its own complex relationship with the US meant that its intervention could not be sustained, more so because of the crisis that engulfed Japan in 1990. But the prospect of regional independence in crisis resolution has revived with the rise of China as a regional and global power. This time both economics and China’s independence from the US seem to improve prospects of successful regional cooperation to address financial vulnerability. A history of tensions between China and its neighbours and the fear of Chinese dominance may yet lead to one more failure. But, as of now, the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s support for a large number of bilateral swap arrangements and its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership seem to suggest that Asian countries may finally come into their own.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Financial Crisis, Central Bank, IMF, Liberalization, Financial Globalization, and Financial Integration
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
48. Strengthening Regional Stability Through the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue
- Author:
- Bolor Zorigt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council on International Policy (CIP)
- Abstract:
- Mongolia strives to contribute toward strengthening global peace and stability through its active role in multilateral cooperation including the UN, Asia-Europe Meeting, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)-led mechanisms. Mongolia perceives itself as a part of the broader Asia-Pacific region. However, Northeast Asia has been prioritized in the past decade, with the goal of preserving balanced relations with its only two neighbours, China and Russia. Mongolia promotes engagement with countries with shared democratic values, such as the US, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK), while maintaining friendly relations with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). In 2013, Mongolia initiated a regional platform called the “Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on Northeast Asian Security” (UBD), which engages all the regional countries to find common ground and chart a joint way forward to attain peace and prosperity in the region and beyond. The ultimate goal is to make a tangible contribution toward fostering regional cooperation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Mongolia and Asia
49. The US is Refocusing its Foreign Policy Priorities on the Indo-Pacific: Recalibrating Alliance Politics in a Pivotal Region
- Author:
- Bart Gaens
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The United States under President Joe Biden is strengthening efforts to constrain China in the Indo-Pacific region. At least for now, a new US focus on the region is aimed primarily at reinforcing “minilateral” alignments, potentially at the expense of the EU and its member states.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, Multilateralism, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
50. NATO's China Problem
- Author:
- Blake Herzinger
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Institution:
- Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
- Abstract:
- The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s strategic minds are increasingly occupied with how to handle the People’s Republic of China’s rise as a maritime power in Asia, but this focus is misguided. China is already a maritime power in the North Atlantic, and its influence is rapidly growing. This influence does not represent a crisis for the Alliance but does require addition of China to the Alliance’s strategic considerations within its area of responsibility. Additionally, the Alliance must account for extraregional competition between the U.S. and the PRC which could draw in alliance commitments in the event of escalation between the two powers.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and North America