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5201. China and Taiwan: Uneasy Détente

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After drifting toward crisis for much of 2004, the outlook for stability across the Taiwan Strait has improved. Constraints on Taiwan pursuing pro-independence initiatives that risk conflict with China will likely remain strong through to the end of President Chen Shui-bian's term of office in 2008. These include a reinvigorated political opposition and Chinese initiatives that have won some poplar support in Taiwan and weakened the drive for independence. Most importantly, the U.S. appears determined to deter not only a Chinese attack but also provocative Taiwan independence moves.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, and Asia

5202. Afghanistan Elections: Endgame or New Beginning?

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Elections for Afghanistan's National Assembly and Provincial Councils are a critical opportunity to achieve a sustainable peace in a country that is still emerging from a quarter century of conflict, created and exacerbated by ethnic, sectarian, regional and linguistic divisions. A representative and functional National Assembly could prove a crucial step in stabilising Afghanistan by allowing diversity of voices in decision-making. Provincial Councils could also help extend the authority of central government by introducing legally approved layers of devolution.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

5203. Towards a Lasting Peace in Nepal: The Constitutional Issues

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal is in the grip of a constitutional crisis. The drafters of the 1990 Constitution hailed it as "the best constitution in the world", ending three decades of absolute monarchical rule by enshrining a multi-party system under a constitutional monarchy. But the nine- year-old Maoist insurgency has cruelly exposed the inherent weaknesses in that settlement, and the royal coup of 1 February 2005 has dealt it a near fatal blow. Constitutional change is a necessary, if not sufficient, element for producing lasting peace. The conflict's root causes can only be addressed by structural change in the state and its governance system. Constitutional issues and the political means by which they are dealt with are crucial to a peace process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Asia, Nepal, and Guinea

5204. Eurasian Alternative in Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:
Erel Tellal
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
One of the constant fundamental principles of Turkish foreign policy during the republican era has been its “Western orientation”. In spite of this fact Turkey faced an “Eurasian alternative” in the last decade. Turkey, after negligence for 70 years, has tried to develop (to have friendly relations) with Central Asian and southern Caucasian states after they had acquired independence. The attempt of the last ten years can be called as failure of the last ten years. Since the State and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs remained ineffective in the process of determining policy and implementing it, this vacuum was filled by extreme nationalists who are inclined to see themselves as “big brother” and also by religious fundamentalists. Moreover, reasons stemming from the region and international environment played a role in the failure of Turkish policies as well. In the second decade Turkey should determine the related factors and head toward to cooperate with regional countries and Russia in order to become successful in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Eurasia, Turkey, and Asia

5205. Turkish-Tajik Relations After the Independence

Author:
Pinar Akçali
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
This article aims to analyze the relations between Turkey and Tajikistan in the aftermath of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The relations between these two countries remained rather limited in the period of 1991-1994 because Tajikistan was not Turkic, faced negative economic conditions, went through a civil war, and had closer ties with Iran and Russia. Between 1995 and 2003, however, these relations improved as Turkey better realized the fact that Tajikistan was both an inseparable part of Central Asian geography and critical for regional stability. Furthermore, in this period, Tajik Civil War ended with an important political reconciliation. It is concluded that although there has been a relative improvement in Turkish-Tajik relations since Tajikistan's independence, it has not yet reached to a satisfactory level.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and War
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Central Asia, Turkey, Asia, and Tajikistan

5206. Why Do Poverty Rates Differ From Region to Region? The Case of Urban China

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper proposes a semi-parametric method for poverty decomposition, which combines the data-generating procedure of Shorrocks and Wan (2004) with the Shapley value framework of Shorrocks (1999). Compared with the popular method of Datt and Ravallion (1992), our method is more robust to misspecification errors, does not require the predetermination of functional forms, provides better fit to the underlying Lorenz curve and incorporates the residual term in a rigorous way. The method is applied to decomposing variations of urban poverty across the Chinese provinces into three components – contributions by the differences in average nominal income, inequality and poverty line. The results foreground average income as the key determinant of poverty incidence, but also attach importance to the influence of distribution. The regional pattern of the decomposition suggests provincial groupings based not entirely on geographical locations.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5207. Out of School and (Probably) in Work: Child Labour and Capability Deprivation in India

Author:
D. Jayaraj and S. Subramanian
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper explores the hypothesis that the phenomenon of child labour is explicable in terms of poverty that compels a household to keep its children out of school and put them to work in the cause of the househol d's survival. In exploring the link between child labour and poverty in the Indian context, the paper advances the view that the nature of the connection is more readily apprehended if both the variables under study are defined more expansively and inclusively than is customarily the case. Specifically, the suggestion is that it may be realistic to include those children who are conventionally categorized as 'non-workers not attending school' within the count of child labourers. It is also suggested that poverty is meaningfully measured in terms of a multi-dimensional approach to the problem, wherein the aim is to assess generalized capability failure—arising from want of access to elementary infrastructural facilities and essential amenities—with respect to a number of basic human functionings. The core of the paper's argument is presented by means of a simple analytical model of child labour and deprivation, and the issues emerging from it are studied in the Indian context with the support of bot h primary and secondary data.
Topic:
Education, Human Rights, and Poverty
Political Geography:
India and Asia

5208. Transforming Conflict with an Economic Dividend: The Sri Lankan Experience

Author:
Saman Kelegama
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Peace can generate an economic dividend, which can be further increased by appropriate economic reform. This dividend can in turn be used to raise popular support for conflict resolution measures along the road to achieving a final political settlement, a strategy that characterizes the recent period in Sri Lanka. However, despite an increase in economic growth following the cessation of hostilities between the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the government, no substantial dividend materialized for either government supporters in the South or LTTE supporters in the war-torn Northeast. The causes of this failure include delays in disbursing aid which would have eased adjustment to economic reforms—resulting in cuts to public spending that affected Southern households—and weak institutions that impeded the effective use of aid in the Northeast. The Sri Lankan experience highlights some important lessons for both government and donors on making use of an economic lever for consolidating a peace process and conflict resolution. It also highlights some of the dangers in relying too much on economic levers to consolidate a peace process when levels of mistrust are very high.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Asia and Sri Lanka

5209. Chechnya Weekly: Volume 6, Issue 40

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Russian media have been reporting over the past week that large-scale security operations are continuing in Kabardino-Balkaria and elsewhere in the North Caucasus following the October 13 rebel attacks in Nalchik. Gazeta reported on October 26 that Ramazan Tembotov, a local legislator from the village of Khasnya in Nalchik's suburbs and a member of the pro-Kremlin United Russia party, was arrested without explanation on October 23 and taken to the headquarters of RUBOP, the anti-organized crime directorate, in Nalchik. "People in masks came flying in, they [treated me] like a criminal, with obscene language. It is a disgrace for me—after all, the treatment of a deputy is special, like [the treatment of] an attorney; everyone knows me in the village," Tembotov told the newspaper. "I, unlike others, was not beaten: they lead me around the rooms, the cellars, and showed what they were doing to other detainees: they were torturing people like the Gestapo. No lawyers, no interrogations—simply beating to death, until they confessed or pointed to others." Tembotov said that the police personnel displayed particular animosity toward anything connected to Islam. He was released on October 24, the day after his detention, and told Gazeta that he thought the only thing that saved him was a telephone call he had managed to make to an acquaintance who works for the Federal Security Service.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Islam
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and North Caucasus

5210. Chechnya Weekly:Nalchik: The Official Stats Don't Add Up

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Kavkazky Uzel reported on October 19 that a total of 92 rebel gunmen were killed on October 13 during the attack on government and law enforcement buildings in Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkaria. RIA Novosti reported that day that a total of 24 law enforcement officers died in the attack along with ten civilians, while Ekho Moskvy radio quoted the press secretary of Kabardino-Balkarian President Arsen Kanokov as saying that the bodies of ten civilians killed in the attack had been identified while another two bodies remained unidentified.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Kabardino