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1. Lending to Defaulters: The IMF Updates Its Lending into Arrears Policy

Author:
Gregory Makoff
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) “lending into arrears” policy outlines the criteria used by the IMF in deciding whether to loan to a country in default. This policy brief focuses on one of the conditions a country must meet when seeking debt relief from the IMF: it must engage in good faith negotiations with its creditors (known as the good faith criterion). The country must also implement significant financial reforms and provide assurances that it will be able to meet its financial obligations. This policy brief looks at the history of the lending into arrears policy, the controversy surrounding its use during Argentina’s 2005 debt restructuring and the May 2022 update to the policy.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

2. An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of COVID-19 NPIs in Argentina

Author:
Adolfo Rubinstein, Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, Alejandro López Osornio, Federico Filippini, and Adrian Santoro
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We added a multi-sectoral economic framework to a SVEIR epidemiological model, combining the economic rationale of the DAEDALUS model with a detailed treatment of lockdown fatigue and declining compliance with Public Health and Social Measures reported in recent empirical work, to quantify the epidemic and economic benefits and costs of alternative lockdown and PHSM policies, both in terms of intensity and length. Our calibration replicates key features of the case and death-curves and economic cost for Argentina in 2021. The model allows us to quantify the short-term policy trade-off between lives and livelihoods and show that it can be significantly improved with targeted pharmaceutical policies such as vaccine rollout to reduce mainly severe disease and the death toll from COVID-19, as has been highlighted by previous studies.
Topic:
Economics, COVID-19, and Epidemiology
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

3. Gender and Extractive Governance: Lessons from Existing Legal and Policy Frameworks

Author:
Aubrey Menard and Elizabeth Moses
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Greater gender equality accompanies economic advancement. However, in countries rich in oil, gas and minerals, economic advancement has not served women and gender minorities as well as men. On the contrary, gender inequality is more pronounced in countries significantly reliant on the extractive sector. The negative impacts of overreliance on the extractive sector appear at both the national level and the sites of major extraction projects. While the gendered issues related to the extractive sector have been broadly acknowledged, efforts to address them are not well developed. This report focuses on gender and governance of the extractive industries, and is part of the larger Gender and Extractives project, funded by the Open Government Partnership (OGP) and the World Bank Multi-Donor Trust Fund, and executed by the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) in partnership with the World Resources Institute (WRI). It aims to inform a new generation of gendered OGP commitments in relation to the extractive sector, building on the momentum created by the Break the Roles campaign and the growth in attention now paid to advancing gender equality in the extractive sector. The research examined the legal and policy frameworks in 12 OGP countries: Argentina, Canada, Colombia, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, Morocco, Mongolia, Nigeria, Peru, Sierra Leone and Tunisia, identifying 62 laws, policies, regulations, guidelines and other official documents that referenced the extractive sector and gender or women.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, and Gas
Political Geography:
Kenya, Indonesia, Canada, Mongolia, Argentina, Colombia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Peru, and Ghana

4. A decomposition method to evaluate the ‘paradox of progress’ with evidence for Argentina

Author:
Javier Alejo, Leonardo Gasparini, Gabriel Montes-Rojas, and Walter Sosa-Escudero
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The ‘paradox of progress’ is an empirical regularity that associates more education with larger income inequality. Two driving and competing factors behind this phenomenon are the convexity of the ‘Mincer equation’ (that links wages and education) and the heterogeneity in its returns, as captured by quantile regressions. We propose a joint least-squares and quantile regression statistical framework to derive a decomposition in order to evaluate the relative contribution of each explanation. The estimators are based on the ‘functional derivative’ approach. We apply the proposed decomposition strategy to the case of Argentina 1992 to 2015.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Inequality, Quantile Regression, and Paradox of Progress
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

5. Wage effects of employer-mediated transfers

Author:
Santiago Garriga and Dario Tortarolo
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We explore how the way in which tax credits are disbursed affects employer’s behavior, wages, and employment. We exploit a change in the payment system in Argentina that was gradually rolled out between 2003 and 2010. Under the old system, employers were in charge of delivering family allowances to their employees together with the monthly salary, and the transfer was deducted from employer social security contributions. For transparency purposes, the government eliminated the intermediary role of firms and started depositing the transfer directly into workers’ bank accounts. Using employer-employee administrative data and an event-study approach, we show that the way tax credits are disbursed matters for the final economic incidence. Our evidence suggests that employers shift part of the incidence of the transfer by paying lower wages. We document larger wage effects in small and less unionized firms and we do not find evidence of pay equity concerns (e.g., effect mostly driven by new hires rather than incumbent workers). Our findings are therefore in line with the hypothesis that transfers are not all captured dollar for dollar by workers. These results raise questions about the use of employers as intermediaries to disburse the transfer; where less salient schemes may lead to capture by employers.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Work Culture, and Economic Inequality
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

6. It takes two to tango: Labour responses to an income tax holiday in Argentina

Author:
Dario Tortarolo, Guillermo Cruces, and Victoria Castillo
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We exploit a large, quasi-randomized, 2.5-year-long income tax holiday to identify intertemporal labor responses of high-wage earners to net wage changes. In August 2013, the Argentine government exempted a group of wage earners from the income tax for 2.5 years while leaving in place the tax on other high-wage earners. Eligibility was based on whether past wage earnings were below a fixed threshold, thus levying sharply different marginal and average tax rates—effectively 0% for workers below the threshold. Using rich population-wide administrative data and a regression discontinuity design, we estimate a precise and very small wage earnings elasticity of 0.017 for this large, salient, and temporary income tax change. Responses are larger for more flexible outcomes (overtime hours) and for more elastic groups (job switchers and managers). We also find avoidance responses from new entrants who faced no tax if their first monthly wage was below the fixed threshold. This strategic entry below the threshold to dodge taxes required coordination with employers. Our findings indicate rigidities in the labor market that require employer-employee cooperation to be overcome for wage earners to be able to respond to tax changes.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Income Inequality, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

7. Tax Audits as Scarecrows: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment

Author:
Ricardo Perez Truglia, Matias Giaccobasso, Guillermo Cruces, Rodrigo Ceni, and Marcelo Bergolo
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The canonical model of Allingham and Sandmo (1972) predicts that firms evade taxes by optimally trading off between the costs and benefits of evasion. However, there is no direct evidence that firms react to audits in this way. We conducted a large-scale field experiment in collaboration with Uruguay’s tax authority to address this question. We sent letters to 20,440 small- and medium-sized firms that collectively paid more than 200 million dollars in taxes per year. Our letters provided exogenous yet nondeceptive signals about key inputs for their evasion decisions, such as audit probabilities and penalty rates. We measured the effect of these signals on their subsequent perceptions about the auditing process, based on survey data, as well as on the actual taxes paid, based on administrative data. We find that providing information about audits had a significant effect on tax compliance but in a manner that was inconsistent with Allingham and Sandmo (1972). Our findings are consistent with an alternative model, risk-as-feelings, in which messages about audits generate fear and induce probability neglect. According to this model, audits may deter tax evasion in the same way that scarecrows frighten off birds.
Topic:
Economics, Global Political Economy, Tax Systems, Economic Policy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
United States, Argentina, and Global Focus

8. Intra-Household Inequality and Child Welfare in Argentina

Author:
Miriam Berges, Federico Perali, Martina Menon, and Lucía Echeverria
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Are two parents and single parents allocating household resources to children in the same way? Which factors affect intra-household inequality? Do mothers re-distribute more income to children as they are more empowered? We focus on child welfare in the context of two parent and single parent families, which is relevant for policy recommendation. We model households behavior in a collective framework, which allows us to understand the rule governing the allocation process between adults and children. Using consumption data from Argentina from three consecutive expenditures surveys (1996, 2004 and 2012) we analyze intra-household behavior over three different socio-economic contexts. We estimate a collective quadratic demand system following a structural approach to identify the fraction of total household expenditure that is devoted to children and adults, exploiting the observability of assignable goods. We provide the first evidence of intra-household inequality and individual poverty levels for Argentina. Our results indicate that family structure matters in the intra-household distribution. We find a positive gender bias in expenditure when children are females for both types of families, and we document that children fare better when mothers have a higher bargaining power in the allocation process, measured by their employment status. Further, we find several features of intra-household behavior which are persistent in time.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Children, Income Inequality, Child Poverty, and Family
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

9. The Paths of Political Change in Argentina

Author:
Bartlomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 10 December, Alberto Fernández from the centre-left Everyone’s Front took over as the president of Argentina. His main challenge will be to end the economic crisis. His government will give up on the pro-market policies of its predecessors and try to renegotiate the foreign debt terms and attract investors. Argentina’s position on regional cooperation may lead to tension, in particular, within Mercosur. While the new government will seek stronger cooperation with the EU, its scepticism of the EU-Mercosur agreement may complicate the document’s ratification in Argentina.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

10. Global and Local Challenges in Argentina and Brazil

Author:
Guillermo Calvo
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The last presidential elections in Argentina (2015) and in Brazil (2018), represent a change from populism towards more orthodox economic policies in two important countries in the region. This shift is not only economic but also reflects other fundamental changes in the electorate, in particular the growing dissatisfaction of the population with issues such as weak security and growing corruption in political institutions. In both countries, there are significant fiscal problems and adjustment is needed. But in modern democracies, the success or failure of economic policy is closely tied to political developments. Notably, both countries face their macroeconomic challenges under a parliamentary minority; a situation that is common to many countries in the region at present. Economies highly integrated into the international capital markets, with macroeconomic imbalances inherited from populist governments, face a particularly difficult challenge. On the one hand, the required fiscal tightening entails the execution of policies that may result in greater social unrest, thus encouraging a gradual approach. On the other hand, a gradual approach requires a greater funding stream of financial funds thus exposing the economy to higher financial risk. The dilemma of choosing between a shock adjustment and a gradual approach has been central to understanding what has happened in Argentina and is essential to assessing the options available to the next government in Brazil. The dilemma about the optimal speed of fiscal adjustment has been faced by other countries in the region in the past. In some successful cases of gradualism, the presence of a clear commitment mechanism over the fiscal path, including the implementation of goals agreed with the IMF, has played a decisive role in mitigating the credibility gap typically linked to gradual approaches. One question that the Committee puts forward throughout this statement is to what extent does Argentina's experience entail relevant lessons for Brazil? In order to thoroughly understand these possible lessons and the challenges that both countries face, it is important to consider the similarities and differences between Argentina and Brazil. There is no doubt that both countries are dealing with formidable fiscal challenges. In both countries, there is a primary fiscal deficit and public debt levels are high in relation to GDP. Also, both economies face low or negative growth rates, partly because of cyclical or temporary factors and partly because of low productivity levels due to complex regulatory regimes and tax systems that hinder investment. On the other hand, the realities of Argentina and Brazil are very different in some important aspects. Brazil has not had to cope with a currency crisis and external financing problems such as those of Argentina; the latter has had to reduce its hefty deficit in the current account of the balance of payments. In contrast, Brazil’s external public debt and external financing needs of the public sector are low. However, while the private sector’s foreign indebtedness is quite moderate in Argentina, it is relatively high in the case of Brazil. As regards to monetary policy and inflation, the situation in both countries is also very different. Whereas the inflation rate in Argentina has suffered a substantial increase throughout this year in the context of low credibility in its monetary policy, Brazil has kept a low and stable inflation rate and has significantly improved its central bank’s credibility. These similarities and differences require a differentiated discussion of each country, even if some challenges facing Argentina and Brazil are shared, and whether their experiences provide lessons for each other. The international context plays a fundamental role for both economies in determining the results of economic policy. Before embarking on a more detailed analysis of the challenges facing Argentina and Brazil during the next year, we will analyze how the international context has recently changed, in the next section.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Populism, and Local
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and South America

11. Amérique latine - L’année politique 2017

Author:
Javier Corrales, Olivier Dabène, Gaspard Estrada, Antoine Faure, Erica Guevara, Marie-Esther Lacuisse, Damien Larrouqué, Nordin Lazreg, Frédéric Louault, Antoine Maillet, Frédéric Massé, and Luis Rivera Vélez
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Amérique latine - L’Année politique is a publication by CERI-Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC). The study extends the work presented on the Observatory’s website (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) by offering tools for understanding a continent that is in the grip of deep transformations.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Sovereignty, Peacekeeping, Protests, Political Science, Regional Integration, Transnational Actors, and Borders
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Latin America, Nicaragua, Caribbean, Haiti, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Jamaica, Costa Rica, Chile, Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia

12. Human Rights and Economic Policy Under the Argentine Military Dictatorship, 1976-1983

Author:
Greg Ross
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
The conflict between a liberal economic agenda and a politics of repression appeared throughout the Argentine military dictatorship. Tensions between the junta’s pro-market and political agendas surfaced in various economic policies, such as international trade. During the dictatorship, Argentina increased trade with countries in the Soviet sphere: of the ninety-nine bilateral economic agreements signed between 1976 and 1983, thirty were with Soviet countries, China, or Cuba. Cases such as that of the military dictatorship suggest how domestic politics—especially the politics of human rights—can become intertwined with, opposed, and shaped by economic interests.
Topic:
Economics, Democracy, Global Political Economy, Economic Policy, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
China, Argentina, and Soviet Union

13. Urban Transport in the Sharing Economy Era: Collaborative Cities

Author:
CIPPEC
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
More than half of the global population lives in cities, an increase of 15 percent over the last 35 years. Driven largely by population growth and a search for better living conditions and work opportunities, this trend is expected to continue. With 80% of its population living in cities, Latin America is the second most urbanized region on the planet and is estimated that by 2050 approximately 90% of its population will be urban (UN-Habitat, 2012).
Topic:
Economics, Urbanization, Digital Economy, Urban, Transportation, and Cities
Political Geography:
Argentina, Latin America, and Global Focus

14. Dossier 10: Argentina Goes Back to the IMF

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
For six months, Argentina has been confronted with a new economic and social crisis on a massive scale. In the context the devaluation of local currency, rising inflation, and a deep recession, Mauricio Macri’s administration struck an agreement with the IMF, marking a major shift in the country’s future. The agreements slash public spending and prioritize the repayment of debt, among other measures. This dossier examines the different dimensions of the crisis, the open disputes, and the possibilities for the immediate future.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Neoliberalism, Protests, IMF, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

15. How Social Inequalities Affect Sustainable Development: Five Causal Mechanisms Underlying the Nexus

Author:
Bettina Schorr
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Postgraduate Program on Sustainable Development and Social Inequalities in the Andean Region (trAndeS)
Abstract:
Since the publication of the Brundtland Report in 1987, social inequality has been a topic of concern for the international development community. In the last decade, given the rise of global inequality the subject gained even more prominence as several international organizations (UNDP, World Bank, OECD) began emphasizing the negative impact of social inequality on human well-being. The Agenda 2030, the current development strategy adopted by the United Nations in 2015, elevated “reducing inequality” to one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (Goal No. 10). This paper connects with this growing concern over the impact of social inequalities on the opportunities for sustainable development. It proposes a research agenda for the social sciences to contribute to the debate by identifying the causal mechanisms that constitute the nexus between social inequalities and sustainable development. The focus on these intermediary steps is important in order to understand in more detail the barriers that social inequalities pose for more sustainable social, economic and ecological arrangements. This is especially necessary when it comes to designing or implementing strategies (political or technological) that aim to promote sustainable development, above all in highly unequal societies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Inequality, Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, and Ecology
Political Geography:
Argentina, Latin America, and Chile

16. Amérique latine - L’année politique 2016

Author:
Maya Collombon, Jacinto Cuvi, Olivier Dabène, Gaspard Estrada, Antoine Faure, Erica Guevara, Damien Larrouqué, Frédéric Louault, Antoine Maillet, Frédéric Massé, Kevin Parthenay, Eduardo Rios, and Darío Rodriguez
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Amérique latine - L’Année politique is a publication by CERI-Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC). The study extends the work presented on the Observatory’s website (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) by offering tools for understanding a continent that is in the grip of deep transformations.
Topic:
Economics, History, Sociology, State Violence, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Latin America, Nicaragua, Caribbean, Venezuela, Mexico, Chile, and Ecuador

17. REGIME EFFECTIVENESS AND DEMOCRACY PROTECTION: THE RESPONSES OF MERCOSUR TO THE IMPEACHMENT PROCESSES IN PARAGUAY AND BRAZIL

Author:
Alexandre San Martim Portes
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
Democratization and regional integration are phenomena relatively new in South America. After decades of authoritarian regimes, new democratic orders and globalization brought the necessity of looking for partnership in the neighborhood. The Common Market of the South, or in the Spanish acronym Mercosur, was created in 1991, as an attempt to bring the countries in the region not only economically but also politically closer. Although initially a project lead by Brazil and Argentina, Mercosur has today threemore members: Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Bolivia is in the process of integration and Chile, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana and Surinam are associate members (MERCOSUR, 2017).
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and Common Market
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Uruguay, Latin America, Venezuela, and Paraguay

18. Starting strong Implementation of the social SDGs in Latin America

Author:
Gala Díaz Langou and José Florito
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
Despite significant progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals, Latin America remains one of the most unequal regions of the world with many of the most vulnerable groups being left behind. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) propose not only the eradication of poverty by 2030, but also a reduction in these high levels of inequality.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Sustainable Development Goals, Green Technology, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

19. Beyond Elitism: The Possibilities of Labour-Centred Development

Author:
Benjamin Selwyn
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
This article outlines the theory and practice of Labour Centred Development (LCD). Much development thinking is elitist, positing states and corporations as primary agents in the development process. This article argues, by contrast, that collective actions by labouring classes can generate tangible developmental gains, and therefore, that under certain circumstances they can be considered primary development actors. Examples of LCD discussed here include shack-dweller’s movements in South Africa, the landless labourer’s movement in Brazil, unemployed worker’s movements in Argentina and large-scale collective actions by formal sector workers across East Asia. The article also considers future prospects for LCD.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Labor Issues, and International Development
Political Geography:
East Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina

20. Amérique latine - L’année politique 2015

Author:
Maya Collombon, Hélène Combes, Olivier Dabène, Gaspard Estrada, Marie-Laure Geoffray, Ana Carolina González Espinosa, Erica Guevara, Damien Larrouqué, Marilde Loiola de Menezes, Frédéric Louault, Frédéric Massé, Mohcine Mounjid, Eduardo Rios, and Darío Rodriguez
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Amérique latine - L’Année politique is a publication by CERI-Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC). The study extends the work presented on the Observatory’s website (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) by offering tools for understanding a continent that is in the grip of deep transformations.
Topic:
Political Violence, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Sociology, and Elections
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Cuba, Arab Countries, Latin America, Nicaragua, Caribbean, Venezuela, Mexico, and United States of America

21. Open government in Argentina — Educating new parents — Giving voice to LGBT issues — Digital mapping

Author:
Matthew Aho
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Americas Quarterly
Institution:
Council of the Americas
Abstract:
It took courage and a splash of audacity for Argentine Congresswoman Laura Alonso to oppose the nationalization of Spanish oil giant Repsol's stake in Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales (YPF), her country's largest energy company. Her remarks in the Cámara de Diputados (Chamber of Deputies) earlier this year earned her taunts even from fellow deputies from the ruling Peronist coalition of being “traitorous” and an “española” (Spaniard). Alonso gave as good as she got, calling officials in President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's government who orchestrated the takeover mistaken, corrupt and contaminated. “You can't just wave a national flag and evoke patriotism, while at the same time you're signing corrupt deals contrary to the rights of the people behind their backs,” she said in interviews after the speech.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Argentina

22. Latin America's Changing Global Connections

Author:
Leani García
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Americas Quarterly
Institution:
Council of the Americas
Abstract:
There's no denying it; whether it's share of trade or percent of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the hemi sphere, the U.S.' economic presence has decreased. Even when the U.S. didn't slip a place in terms of a trade partner, its overall share of countries' imports or exports declined across the board, while other countries' increased—especially China's. In the same period, in Argentina and Brazil, the share of U.S. FDI declined by 22% and 27%, respectively.
Topic:
Economics and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and Latin America

23. John Carey on Latin American populism — Adriana La Rotta on the narco years in Colombia — Nancy Pérez on Central American migrants

Author:
John Carey, Adriana La Rotta, and Nancy Perez
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Americas Quarterly
Institution:
Council of the Americas
Abstract:
Latin American Populism in the Twenty-First Century edited by Carlos de la Torre and Cynthia J. Arnson BY JOHN M. CAREY Legend has it that on his deathbed, Juan Domingo Perón, the former President of Argentina, uttered a curse condemning any would-be biographer to dedicate his or her career to defining populism. Or perhaps the curse was issued on the lost page of the late Brazilian President Getúlio Vargas' suicide note, or slipped in among the bills in an envelope passed surreptitiously by Alberto Fujimori to some Peruvian legislator, or whispered by the recently deceased Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez into the ear of his successor, Nicolás Maduro. No matter. Whoever first uttered the curse, it worked: political scientists studying the region have wrestled and been obsessed with the concept for decades. We want to write about populism. Indeed, we need to write about it, because populism is among the most important and persistent phenomena in modern Latin American politics. But because the populist label has been applied to such a broad array of phenomena, we are condemned to define it before we can embark on any serious analysis. Academic exactitude being what it is, this leads first to extended consideration of what others have held populism to be, followed by a self-perpetuating and seemingly inescapable cycle of judgment, distinction and justification.
Topic:
Economics and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, Argentina, Colombia, Latin America, and Central America

24. Amérique latine Political Outlook 2013

Author:
Olivier Dabène, Gaspard Estrada, Damien Larrouqué, Nordin Lazreg, Delphine Lecombe, Frédéric Louault, Antoine Maillet, Frédéric Massé, Kevin Parthenay, Eduardo Rios, Darío Rodriguez, and Constantino Urcuyo-Fournier
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Amérique latine - L’Année politique is a publication by CERI-Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC). The study extends the work presented on the Observatory’s website (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) by offering tools for understanding a continent that is in the grip of deep transformations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Foreign Exchange, History, Reform, Transitional Justice, Political Prisoners, and Memory
Political Geography:
China, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, South America, Uruguay, Latin America, Venezuela, Mexico, Chile, and Guatemala

25. Inserting Migrants Into the Global Social Protection Floor

Author:
Marie-Hélène Ratel, Gabriel Williams, and Keegan Williams
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Unprecedented human migration is an issue of critical importance in today's rapidly globalizing world. International migrants constitute a group with more people than the population of Brazil, and they send more money home each year than the entire value of Argentina's economy (International Organization for Migration [IOM], 2013). Migration flows have doubled since 1980 and show no signs of slowing down due to growing inequalities in global development, population pressure, environmental change and conflict (Koser, 2010). Compared to the majority of citizens in many countries, migrants face heightened risks because they do not receive adequate social protections such as health care, income security, education, housing or access to clean water and sanitation.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Social Stratification, Labor Issues, Immigration, and Sociology
Political Geography:
Brazil and Argentina

26. Producing Knowledge in the Global South: The Political Economy of Social Science in Argentina, Colombia, and Peru

Author:
Richard Snyder, Maria Angelica Bautista, Angelica Duran-Martinez, and Jazmin Sierra
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
How do international inequalities in funding, institutional support and research capacity affect the production of social science knowledge? New data on the political economy of research in Latin America shows that funding for social science is organized in sharply contrasting ways across countries, with three types of capital -- foreign, domestic public, and domestic private -- playing distinct roles. This cross-national variation in the role played by each type of capital, in turn, has contrasting consequences for (1) who produces knowledge, that is, for the professional credentials and networks needed to gain access to funding for research; and (2) for the kind of knowledge produced, especially for the comparative scope and policy relevance of research. A focus on cross-national variation in how social science is funded provides a stronger understanding of knowledge production in the Global South.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Argentina, Colombia, Latin America, and Peru

27. Declining Inequality in Latin America in the 2000s: The Cases of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico.

Author:
Nora Lustig, Luis F. Lopez-Calva, and Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Between 2000 and 2010, the Gini coefficient declined in 13 of 17 Latin American countries. The decline was statistically significant and robust to changes in the time interval, inequality measures, and data sources. In-depth country studies for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico suggest two main phenomena underlie this trend: a fall in the premium to skilled labor and more progressive government transfers. The fall in the premium to skills resulted from a combination of supply, demand, and institutional factors. Their relative importance depends on the country.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, and Mexico

28. The Impact of Taxes and Social Spending on Inequality and Poverty in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, and Peru: A Synthesis of Results

Author:
Nora Lustig
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We apply a standard tax-and-benefit-incidence analysis to estimate the impact on inequality and poverty of direct taxes, indirect taxes and subsidies, and social spending (cash and food transfers and in-kind transfers in education and health). The extent of inequality reduction induced by direct taxes and transfers is rather small (2 percentage points on average), especially when compared with that found in Western Europe (15 percentage points on average). What prevents Argentina, Bolivia, and Brazil from achieving similar reductions in inequality is not the lack of revenues but the fact that they spend less on cash transfers—especially transfers that are progressive in absolute terms—as a share of GDP. Indirect taxes result in that net contributors to the fiscal system start at the fourth, third, and even second decile on average, depending on the country. When in-kind transfers in education and health are added, however, the bottom six deciles are net recipients. The impact of transfers on inequality and poverty reduction could be higher if spending on direct cash transfers that are progressive in absolute terms were increased, leakages to the nonpoor reduced, and coverage of the extreme poor by direct transfer programs expanded.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, Health, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and Bolivia

29. Postcard from...Buenos Aires

Author:
Uki Goni
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
After nine years of stability, Argentina's president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is off on an economic roller-coaster ride.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Argentina

30. The public law challenge: Killing or rethinking international investment law?

Author:
Stephan W. Schill
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
At the heart of the so-called “legitimacy crisis” of international investment law, prominently reflected in the Public Statement on the International Investment Regime, is what I call the public law challenge. It builds on the observation that one-off appointed arbitrators, instead of standing courts, review government acts and reach far into the sphere of domestic public law by crafting and refining the standards governing in vestor-state relations. Arbitrations against Uruguay and Australia concerning cigarette packaging are the most recent examples of genuinely public law disputes now settled in arbitration. The disputes about Argentina's emergency legislation and Canada's ban on pesticide s are others. These arbitrations create friction with domestic public law as arbitrators, having little democratic legitimacy, often operate in non-transparent proceedings and produce increasing amounts of incoherent decisions.
Topic:
Economics, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Canada, Argentina, and Australia

31. A Matter of Transparency: The Top One Percent in the Americas

Author:
Nora Lustig
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Americas Quarterly
Institution:
Council of the Americas
Abstract:
It's time to measure the income share of Latin America's super-rich.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, Argentina, and Latin America

32. Direct Distribution of Oil Revenues in Venezuela: A Viable Alternative?

Author:
Pedro L. Rodríguez, José R. Morales, and Francisco J. Monaldi
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Venezuela is a textbook example of a resource-dependent country—between 1950 and 2008, oil generated over a trillion dollars of income for the state. Nevertheless, Venezuela currently combines an economy that is stagnant, despite high oil prices, with an increasingly authoritarian government. The authors argue that large oil rents that accrue to the state, together with a lack of formal and transparent mechanisms to facilitate citizen oversight, are a large part of the problem. They consider the nature of the fiscal contract between the Venezuelan government and its people. This has been characterized by increasing discretion of the executive; only a small share of the rents is now subject to political oversight within the framework of the budgetary system. The authors consider the case for direct distribution of rents, distinguishing it from a populist approach to transfers as effected through Venezuela's misiones. They also report on focus group discussions of the directdistribution approach and the political viability of direct transfers.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Energy Policy, Government, Oil, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

33. Growth and Recovery in a Time of Default: Lessons from the Role of the Urban Sector in Argentina

Author:
Michael Cohen
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
International narratives on Argentina's recovery from the crisis of 2001-02 tend to emphasize the role of rising commodity prices and growing demand from China. Argentina is said to have been 'lucky', saved by global demand for its agricultural exports. The international narrative has also been used by local agricultural exporters to justify their objections against higher export taxes during periods of high commodity prices. These narratives are not correct. Data on the country's recovery show that it was not led by agricultural exports but was fuelled by urban demand and production. When the Convertibility period ended and the peso was devalued in 2002, price increases for imports stimulated the production of domestic goods and services for consumers. This production in turn generated multiplier effects which supported small and medium-sized firms and helped to create many new jobs. This later produced a revival of the construction and then the manufacturing sectors as well.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, Argentina, and Latin America

34. Is Greece heading for default?

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Greece has slid into a serious fiscal crisis over the last few months. A ballooning budget deficit and high levels of government debt have raised questions in the minds of investors about the sustainability of the country's public finances. The level of concern among investors can be seen from developments in Greek borrowing costs relative to those in Germany. At the beginning of 2008, the yield on Greek 10-year bonds was only around 0.3% higher than on equivalent German securities, but this gap has now risen to over 3%. This yield spread is at its widest for more than a decade and is by far the largest within the Eurozone. The root cause of Greece's problems is a long period of fiscal indiscipline. In 2009, after years of heavy spending, the budget deficit rose to almost 13% of GDP and the public debt to GDP ratio is set to reach 125% this year. The deteriorating fiscal position has led to a slew of ratings downgrades, and outside the Eurozone Greece's credit rating would probably be in 'junk' territory. On top of the fiscal problems, Greece also suffers from weak external competitiveness. The real exchange rate has appreciated substantially since Greece joined the Eurozone, contributing to a sharp widening in the current account deficit to around 12% of GDP last year. On some estimates, the real effective exchange rate is now around 20% overvalued. As a result Greece now faces a series of policy choices all of which look unpalatable. Within the Eurozone, the only realistic orthodox option is a combination of massive fiscal retrenchment and 'internal devaluation' – forcing down costs relative to those of Greece's competitors. But fiscal cutbacks and cost deflation on the scale required could plunge the country into a deep and prolonged recession and might prove politically and socially unsustainable. The Greek economy is already showing signs of serious stress, with GDP down 2.6% on the year in 2009Q4. The extreme alternatives are default and/or leaving the Eurozone and enacting devaluation. But the political barriers to such moves are immense, and while default and devaluation could ease budgetary and external imbalance problems, they would also cause massive economic and financial disruption and probably a deeper recession in the near-term. Default and devaluation would also risk huge negative contagion effects on the Eurozone and the wider global economy. With Greece's debt approaching €300 billion a default would be the largest sovereign collapse since WWII, dwarfing those in Russia and Argentina. Eurozone banks could face losses of up to €100 billion on top of the heavy writedowns already suffered, risking a renewed Europe-wide credit squeeze. There could also be collapses in demand for the debt of other weaker Eurozone members such as Spain, Portugal and Ireland. World markets for equities, corporate bonds and emerging market debt would also likely be badly affected. There could also be pressure for the major economies to accelerate their fiscal adjustment efforts, given the impact on investor confidence and the scale of their budget deficits. Our estimation results suggest that a Greek default could be a real threat to the progress of the global recovery, cutting growth in the major economies by around 1% per annum compared to our baseline forecast and world growth by 0.6%. Given the potential massive consequences of a Greek default, the pressure for a bailout has been growing. Although there are questions about the legality of such a move, we believe it is possible if the political will exists. Estimation results using the Oxford Model suggest a bailout would be likely to be less economically damaging than a default, even assuming some negative impact from higher bond yields in the core Eurozone countries. The costs of a bailout could rise rapidly, however, if it extended beyond Greece to other troubled countries. A bailout would create a big risk of moral hazard, perhaps inducing fiscal misbehaviour among other Eurozone members or being used by Greece to sidestep the necessary adjustment. To avoid this, any bailout would have to incorporate strict conditionality, perhaps raising serious questions about fiscal sovereignty within the Eurozone. Over the last two weeks, the other EU countries have taken a relatively hard line with Greece, stopping short of announcing explicit financial support and pushing for strong fiscal adjustment measures. Although a bailout remains the most likely outcome if Greece struggles to refinance its debts, there are some signs that political resistance to such a move is growing. The key risk period could be April-May, when a large volume of Greek debt matures.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Argentina

35. Earnings Mobility in Times of Growth and Decline: Argentina from 1996 to 2003

Author:
Gary S. Fields and María Laura Sánchez Puerta
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In recent years, the economy of Argentina has experienced both rapid economic growth and severe economic decline. In this paper, we use a series of one -year long panels to study who gained the most in pesos when the economy grew and who lost the most in pesos when the economy contracted. To answer these questions, we test two hypotheses both unconditionally and conditionally. The 'divergence of earnings' hypothesis holds that in any given year, the highest earning individuals are those who experienced the largest earnings gains or the smallest earnings losses in pesos. The 'symmetry of gains and losses' hypothesis holds that those groups that gained the most in pesos when the economy grew are those that lost the most in pesos when the economy contracted. Both hypotheses are decisively rejected in the data.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

36. Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Argentine Broad Money Demand

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson and Steven B. Kamin
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
his paper assesses the empirical merits of PcGets and Autometrics–two recent algorithms for computer-automated model selection–using them to improve upon Kamin and Ericsson’s (1993) model of Argentine broad money demand. The selected model is an economically sensible and statistically satisfactory error correc- tion model, in which cointegration between money, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rate depreciation depends on the inclusion of a “ratchet” variable that cap- tures irreversible effects of inflation. Short-run dynamics differ markedly from the long run. Algorithmically based model selection complements opportunities for the researcher to contribute value added in the empirical analysis.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Finance, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

37. Competition Law and Policy in Argentina

Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
In the past 25 years Argentina has made considerable, if uneven, progress toward building a successful market economy. In any country, an effective competition policy is an important part of that effort. Argentina's progress in competition policy has also been uneven, having been affected in many ways by the country's turbulent political and economic history.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

38. Dark Armies, Secret Bases, and Rummy, Oh My!

Author:
Conn Hallinan
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
It would be easy to make fun of President Bush's recent fiasco at the 4th Summit of the Americas in Mar del Plata, Argentina. His grand plan for a free trade zone reaching from the Artic Circle to Tierra del Fuego was soundly rejected by nations fed up with the economic and social chaos wrought by neoliberalism. At a press conference, South American journalists asked him rude questions about Karl Rove. And the President ended the whole debacle by uttering what may be the most trenchant observation the man has ever made on Latin America: "Wow! Brazil is big!"
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Argentina, South America, and Latin America

39. What Bond Markets Can Learn from Argentina

Author:
Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Argentina has completed the largest and most complex sovereign bond restructuring in history. Before the debt exchange, it owed about $82 billion in principal and $20 billion in past due interest. Hundreds of thousands of creditors held 150 kinds of defaulted instruments issued in six currencies under the laws of eight jurisdictions. Creditors owed just over 76% of the total, or $62 billion, got $35 billion in new performing bonds. Other performing debt includes $40 billion in domestic and about $30 billion in multi-lateral obligations. Argentina left behind almost $25 billion in defaulted principal and interest.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

40. The Bargain of the Unstable: Trade Negotiations and Financial Crises in Mercosur 1995-2001

Author:
Pablo Heidrich
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Argentina and Brazil suffered grave financial crises during the 1990s. During that time, they were involved in trade negotiations with each other inside Mercosur. As the financial crises struck one or the other country, their negotiating positions varied from accommodating to aggressive, leading to peaks of confrontation from which Mercosur has not quite recovered yet. Furthermore, those crises provoked a large number of trade disputes as protectionism from both countries grew when the crises increasingly hurt their economies.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and Latin America

41. Unemployment, Macroeconomic Policy and Labor Market Flexibility: Argentina and Mexico in the 1990s

Author:
Roberto Frenkel and Jaime Ros
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper compares the divergent unemployment experiences in Argentina and Mexico in the 1990s, examining in detail the remarkable contrasts in the adjustment of the labor market in these two countries that occur despite equally striking similarities in the evolution of a number of macroeconomic variables and external economic shocks. The paper focuses on the role of macroeconomic policies and the type of industrial restructuring in these developments and considers to what extent the divergent unemployment experiences can be explained by differences in the institutional characteristics of the labor market.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, North America, and Mexico

42. The Gender Impact of Pension Reform in Latin America—and Broader Policy Implications

Author:
Estelle James, Alejandra Cox Edwards, and Rebeca Wong
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Over the past two decades multipillar pension systems that include both a public defined benefit (DB) and private defined contribution (DC) pillar have been adopted in many countries. Critics of these pension reforms argue that the tight link between payroll contributions and benefits in the DC pillar will produce lower pensions for women. In contrast, supporters of these reforms argue that multipillar systems remove distortions that favored men and permit a more targeted public pillar that will help women. To test these conflicting claims about multipillar reforms, and to analyze more generally the gender impact of alternative pension systems, this paper examines the differential impact on the two genders of the new and old systems in three Latin American countries—Chile, Argentina, and Mexico. On the basis of household survey data, we simulate the employment histories of representative men and women and the pensions that these are likely to generate under the new and old rules.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, Latin America, Central America, North America, Mexico, and Chile

43. Argentina Alert (Double Issue)

Author:
Miguel Diaz and Carlos M. Regúnaga
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Argentina's national mania to experiment with new rules, procedures, and institutions never ceases to produce surprising, and sometimes stunning results. This time, the electoral process has been managed in such a bizarre way that as a result, the primary election of the Peronist Party will take place after the general election rather than before, as one would expect in a normal, more boring country.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

44. Argentina Alert: Summary of the Elections

Author:
Carlos M. Regúnaga
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Voter turnout for the April 27 elections was among the highest in record: about 80 percent of the total population eighteen years old and older. The number of empty ballot envelopes was less than 1 percent, and votes annulled were within the normal margins in any election. All of this indicates that the protest vote (“voto bronca”), which was so high in the 2001 congressional elections, was not a factor in this election. The large number of candidates—and the exceptionally high number of candidates with the possibility of reaching the second round presidency on May 18 in particular—may have convinced electors to cast positive votes.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

45. Argentina Alert-Argentine Election: Fateful Choice

Author:
Carlos M. Regúnaga
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Observers unfamiliar with Argentine history may see in the present campaign a lack of real confrontation and choice of ideas. And they may be misled in that direction by the fact that candidates have devoted great time and effort to expose flaws in their opponents' character and background and very little to explain platforms and proposals. One should not be deceived, however, by appearances. The ideological spectrum represented by the five candidates is much wider than has been seen in any U.S. election in recent history. That statement needs, however, some historical perspective.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

46. Argentina Alert: Polls Apart

Author:
Carlos M. Regúnaga
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The race for the Argentine presidency is now in the next to last lap. The first ballot will be cast April 27, but for the first time in history it looks as if a second ballot will be required. If it is, it will take place on May 18. At this juncture, public opinion and pundits' predictions are poles apart. But before analyzing them, it might be useful to remember the electoral system now in effect.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

47. Picking Up the Pieces: Comparing the Social Impact of Finacial Crisis in Mexico and Argentina

Author:
Manuel Pastor and Carol Wise
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
After a committed process of macroeconomic stabilization that began during the mid-1980s in most of Latin America, many observers began to speak of the need for a “second generation” of reforms that could more firmly establish the bases for economic growth and correct for longstanding distributional inequities. By the mid-1990s serious reformers like Argentina and Mexico seemed to be on the cusp of tackling this distributional backlog by launching so-called second phase market reforms meant to correct for earlier shortcomings in the social realm (Naím 1995; Pastor and Wise 1999). However, in both cases, financial crises erupted: Mexico's crash of December 1994, which saw a forty percent devaluation of the peso and a massive outflow of portfolio capital; and, more recently, Argentina's 2002 meltdown, which while simmering since the Brazilian devaluation of 1999, finally caused the country's commitment to a fixed exchange rate to be abandoned.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

48. Social Insurance Regimes: crises and 'reform' in the Argentine and Brazil, since c. 1900

Author:
Colin Lewis and Peter Lloyd-Sherlock
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The paper examines the structural and organisational problems of social insurance systems in Brazil and the Argentine in order to illuminate current debates about pension 'reform'. Much of the present discussion depicts social insurance 'crisis' as a modern phenomenon. Similarly, preoccupations about the macroeconomic objectives of reform - profitable pension funds as an adjunct to capital market deepening, about sustainability - the financial viability of systems, and about equity and coverage, are often assumed to be peculiar to the late twentieth century. The papers stresses the generational (or cyclical) nature of crises that have plagued social insurance regimes in both countries. It also identifies what may be learnt from differences, as well as similarities, between the two systems - not least the relatively larger historic role the private sector and earlier substantive provision for rural workers in Brazil. Following an appraisal of different 'models' (individual 'capitalised' accounts versus pay-as-you-go schemes and monopolistic state systems versus pluralistic/competitive arrangements), the paper concludes with an evaluation of the administrative and financial stability of current schemes.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, and Latin America

49. The Argentine Implosion

Author:
Luigi Manzetti
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In December 2001, Argentina recorded the world's largest default ever, as it failed to honor payments on its US$132 billion foreign debt. Since then, five presidents have been in power, the Argentine peso has been devalued by 120 percent, and the banking system has virtually collapsed, dragging the economy into a depression. The gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 16.3 percent in the first quarter of 2002. Argentina's per capita income has become one of the worst in Latin America, and, as a result, more than one-third of its people live under the poverty line. 1 Argentines' confidence in their elected officials has disappeared. By most accounts, the country has literally imploded to a degree that has no precedent in Latin America's contemporary history. This is particularly bewildering, considering that only 10 years ago Argentina was hailed around the world as a model of successful economic reforms, with standards of living that were not only the highest in the region but comparable to those of some southern European countries. How could Argentina go from role model to international outcast so quickly? Some place the blame on external shocks created by the financial crises in Mexico (1995), Indonesia (1997), Thailand (1998), and Russia (1998). Others say the cause of the problem was misguided policy advice from the International Monetary Fund (Stiglitz 2002). Yet, most analyses ascribe much of the trouble to the Convertibility Law's fixed exchange rate policy adopted in 1991.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Indonesia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Thailand

50. Strengthening Financial Sector Governance in Emerging Markets

Author:
Robert Litan, Michael Pomerleano, and V. Sundararajan
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Policymakers and analysts are still sifting through the wreckage of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the subsequent crises in Russia, Turkey, and Argentina to discern key lessons so that similar crises will not recur. Some lessons are by now well understood. Pegged exchange rates can encourage excessive borrowing and expose countries to financial collapse when foreign exchange reserves run dry. Inadequate disclosures by both private companies and public bodies can lead to similar dangers. Although many factors undoubtedly contributed to these crises, it is now widely recognized that each suffered from a failure in “governance,” and in particular a failure in governance in their financial sectors. Accordingly, the World Bank Group, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Brookings Institution devoted their fourth annual Financial Markets and Development Conference, held in New York from April 17-19, 2002, to the subject of financial sector governance in emerging markets. This conference report summarizes some of the highlights of the conference, whose full proceedings will be published as a Brookings book in the fall of 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, New York, Turkey, Asia, and Argentina

51. Fixing Argentina

Author:
Kurt Schuler
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Argentina's currency crisis and economic depression have been caused by the bad policies of its government—not by banks, speculators, the International Monetary Fund (despite the bad advice it has given), or other scapegoats. The De la Rúa and Duhalde governments have made several gigantic blunders, namely, increasing tax rates, freezing bank deposits, devaluing the peso, and forcibly converting dollar bank deposits and contracts into pesos (“pesofication”).
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

52. Financial Regulation and Supervision in Emerging Markets. The Experience of Latin America since the Tequila Crisis

Author:
Barbara Stallings and Rogerio Studart
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper deals with changes in the regulation and supervision of the Latin American financial sector in the aftermath of the 'Tequila Crisis' of 1994–95. While it finds that both have improved, regulation and supervision cannot resolve all problems; good macroeconomic policy and performance are essential complements. This is especially true because of the procyclical nature of financial activity. The paper presents both regional data for Latin America, contrasting it with other emerging markets, and four country case studies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico). The latter show how individual country characteristics and experiences affect the operation of the financial systems. We close with some policy recommendations.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Chile

53. Ratings since the Asian Crisis

Author:
Helmut Reisen
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The increased importance of rating agencies for emerging-market finance has brought their work to the attention of a wider group of observers - and under criticism. This paper evaluates whether the importance of ratings for developing-country finance has changed since the Asian Crisis and whether rating agencies have modified the determinants for their rating decisions. It also provides an analysis on recent suggestions by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, as these are very important for gauging the future role of sovereign ratings for foreign debt finance in developing countries. While the explanatory power of conventional rating determinants has declined since the Asian crisis, recent rating performance for Argentina and Turkey can still be qualified as lagging the markets, as variables of financial-sector strength and the endogenous effects of capital flows on macroeconomic variables seem to remain underemphasized in rating assessments. The market impact of sovereign ratings is predicted to decline as agencies have started to modify their country ceiling policy and as market participants try to exploit bond trading opportunities arising from the lagged nature of ratings. The paper presents theory and evidence to suggest that the Basel II Accord will destabilise private capital flows to the developing countries, if the current proposal to link regulatory bank capital to sovereign ratings is maintained: Assigning fixed minimum capital to bank assets whose risk weights are in turn determined by market-lagging cyclically determined ratings will reinforce the tendency of the capital ratio to work in a pro-cyclical way.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Turkey, Asia, and Argentina

54. Chile/Argentina — Economic Fallout

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece examines the impact of Argentina's economic difficulties on Chilean firms. As well as its macroeconomic impact in Chile, reflected principally in currency volatility and a reduction of capital inflows, the Argentine crisis is affecting Chilean firms with investments in or exports to Argentina. It will also have an impact on Chile's tourist industry. Following the exit of many Chilean firms from Argentina over the last two years, those that remain are either in export sectors or have a long-term strategy under which they appear willing to ride out the present crisis. However, many will sustain short-term losses and some smaller investors, particularly in consumer sectors, may be forced out of the market.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Chile

55. Latin American Trade Strategy at Century's End

Author:
Carol Wise
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
This paper tackles the question of trade strategy and differential economic performance in Latin America, with a focus on the four countries -- Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico -- most important for the successful completion of a full Western Hemispheric integration scheme. The analysis distinguishes between a “standard” market strategy that assigns the task of economic adjustment to market forces and a “competitive” strategy that more actively employs a range of public policies to facilitate adjustment and correct for instances of market failure. The choices of strategy are explored against the backdrop of international pressures, government-business relations, and institutional reform within the state. Two main conclusions are drawn: first, the competitive strategy strongly correlates with more favorable macro-and microeconomic outcomes and, second, mediocre economic performance under a standard market strategy has undermined the spirit of collective action that will be necessary to forge ahead at the hemispheric level.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile

56. Argentina—Opposition

Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The outright victory of the Alliance candidate, Fernando de la Rua, on the first round of voting in the presidential elections on October 24, reflects the desire for a change of political style. De la Rua's approach to government will be less personalist and more consensual than that of the outgoing president, Carlos Menem. While economic policy is unlikely to change in any fundamental way, the new government will be under pressure to root out corruption. It will be the first time since the return to civilian rule in 1983 that a government lacks a majority in either chamber of Congress, which may strengthen democratic institutions.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Argentina

57. A Dollarization Blueprint for Argentina

Author:
Steve H. Hanke and Kurt Schuler
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
President Carlos Menem of Argentina has advocated replacing the Argentine peso with the dollar. Dollarization would benefit Argentina because it would eliminate the peso-dollar exchange-rate risk, lower interest rates, and stimulate economic growth.
Topic:
Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

58. Argentina: Another Round at the Polls

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
This month President Clinton visits Argentina, a major South American country that in recent years has become one of our most valued and trusted Latin allies. His presence there will underscore the special relationship that President Carlos Sal Menem has forged with the United States, a relationship that is a mirror image of Argentina’s historic antagonism toward Washington and all its works. Clinton’s presence will also highlight Argentina’s significant victories in the economic field–in the war against inflation, in the struggle to reestablish creditworthiness, and, above all, in its efforts to attract significant new foreign investment from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The visit precedes by about ten days an important midterm election, which in all probability will determine the political lineup for that country’s 1999 presidential election. In this regard, the most important development has been the creation of a multiparty coalition, the Alliance, which will be running joint lists against the candidates of Menem’s own Peronist Party. If the Peronists hold their own on October 26, Menem will be tempted to make a bid for an unprecedented third term. If they are soundly defeated, the struggle for succession within Peronism will begin the morning after. But a victory for the Alliance by no means clearly points the way for the opposition, which is beset by profound divisions of its own. This vagueness makes these elections a particularly interesting lens through which to view Argentina’s continuing evolution.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America