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1. Odisea Demográfica. Tendencias demográficas en Argentina: insumos clave para el diseño del bienestar social

Author:
Rafael Rofman, Carola Della Paolera, Juan Camisassa, and Emanuel López Méndez
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
En los últimos 30 años, aún en períodos de crecimiento económico, Argentina no ha logrado reducir la incidencia de la pobreza por debajo del 25%. En otras palabras, durante las últimas tres décadas, siempre hubo al menos un cuarto de la población que vivió en la pobreza. La pobreza implica vulneraciones en múltiples dimensiones (ingresos, educación, vivienda, etc.) y una política efectiva enfocada en este desafío demanda la adopción de medidas en diversos campos, como la macroeconomía, los mercados de trabajo, la educación, el cuidado y otras políticas sociales. Habitualmente, en Argentina, estos temas son debatidos con un foco marcado en encontrar soluciones de corto plazo a los problemas, lo que dificulta cristalizar mejoras significativas y sostenibles. A esto se suma el hecho de que es habitual que una dimensión tan relevante como las anteriores sea ignorada: la dinámica demográfica. La evolución de la población, en tamaño y estructura etaria, es un factor determinante en las tendencias de mediano y largo plazo, tanto en lo que refiere a las posibilidades de desarrollo económico como a las condiciones de bienestar social, la equidad y la incidencia de pobreza. Este documento analiza los recientes cambios demográficos en Argentina para enfatizar el rol que tiene la demografía en las perspectivas económicas y sociales del país, respondiendo a cuatro preguntas: ¿de dónde venimos?, ¿por qué cambió la tendencia en la fecundidad en el último quinquenio y qué significa esto para la reducción de la pobreza?, ¿en dónde estamos hoy? y ¿hacia dónde vamos?
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Poverty, Society, Well-Being, and Protection
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

2. Emerging Cities as Independent Engines of Growth: The Case of Buenos Aires

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Douglas Barrios, Daniela Muhaj, and Sehar Noor
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
What does it take for a sub-national unit to become an autonomous engine of growth? This issue is particularly relevant to large cities, as they tend to display larger and more complex know-how agglomerations and may have access to a broader set of policy tools. To approximate an answer to this question, specific to the case of Buenos Aires, Harvard’s Growth Lab engaged in a research project from December 2018 to June 2019, collaborating with the Center for Evidence-based Evaluation of Policies (CEPE) of Universidad Torcuato di Tella, and the Development Unit of the Secretary of Finance of the City of Buenos Aires. Together, we have developed a research agenda that seeks to provide inputs for a policy plan aimed at decoupling Buenos Aires’s growth trajectory from the rest of Argentina’s.
Topic:
Development, Economic Growth, and Cities
Political Geography:
Argentina

3. How Sustainable is Recycling? Reconciling the Social, Ecological, and Economic Dimensions in Argentina

Author:
Anna Pegels, Stefanie Heyer, David Ohlig, Felix Kurz, Lena Laux, and Prescott Morley
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
How can recycling in developing countries be shaped to be socially, environmentally, and economically sustainable? Our research synthesizes the ideas and expectations of a diverse set of actors in the recycling sector of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Topic:
Development, Economy, and Recycling
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

4. Integral Human Development Through the Lens of Sen’s Capability Approach and the Life of a Faith Community at the Latin American Urban Margins

Author:
Séverine Deneulin
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The concept of integral human development is central to the Catholic social tradition. Yet, it remains under-explored with regard to its integrating components and their implications. What does taking an integral human development perspective mean for social analysis and action? The paper seeks to answer this question on the basis of the four encyclicals in which the idea of integral human development is treated, and in combination with two other sources: 1) the literature on “human development” in the multidisciplinary social science field of international development studies and its conceptual foundations in Amartya Sen’s capability approach; and 2) the life of a faith community in a marginalized Latin American urban neighborhood. Based on a combination of these sources, the paper concludes by proposing an understanding of “integral human development” that it calls a spirituality-extended capability approach to the progress of peoples.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Education, Poverty, Religion, Inequality, Youth, Violence, Christianity, and Catholic Church
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

5. How Social Inequalities Affect Sustainable Development: Five Causal Mechanisms Underlying the Nexus

Author:
Bettina Schorr
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Postgraduate Program on Sustainable Development and Social Inequalities in the Andean Region (trAndeS)
Abstract:
Since the publication of the Brundtland Report in 1987, social inequality has been a topic of concern for the international development community. In the last decade, given the rise of global inequality the subject gained even more prominence as several international organizations (UNDP, World Bank, OECD) began emphasizing the negative impact of social inequality on human well-being. The Agenda 2030, the current development strategy adopted by the United Nations in 2015, elevated “reducing inequality” to one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (Goal No. 10). This paper connects with this growing concern over the impact of social inequalities on the opportunities for sustainable development. It proposes a research agenda for the social sciences to contribute to the debate by identifying the causal mechanisms that constitute the nexus between social inequalities and sustainable development. The focus on these intermediary steps is important in order to understand in more detail the barriers that social inequalities pose for more sustainable social, economic and ecological arrangements. This is especially necessary when it comes to designing or implementing strategies (political or technological) that aim to promote sustainable development, above all in highly unequal societies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Inequality, Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, and Ecology
Political Geography:
Argentina, Latin America, and Chile

6. Starting strong Implementation of the social SDGs in Latin America

Author:
Gala Díaz Langou and José Florito
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
Despite significant progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals, Latin America remains one of the most unequal regions of the world with many of the most vulnerable groups being left behind. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) propose not only the eradication of poverty by 2030, but also a reduction in these high levels of inequality.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Sustainable Development Goals, Green Technology, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

7. Beyond Elitism: The Possibilities of Labour-Centred Development

Author:
Benjamin Selwyn
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
This article outlines the theory and practice of Labour Centred Development (LCD). Much development thinking is elitist, positing states and corporations as primary agents in the development process. This article argues, by contrast, that collective actions by labouring classes can generate tangible developmental gains, and therefore, that under certain circumstances they can be considered primary development actors. Examples of LCD discussed here include shack-dweller’s movements in South Africa, the landless labourer’s movement in Brazil, unemployed worker’s movements in Argentina and large-scale collective actions by formal sector workers across East Asia. The article also considers future prospects for LCD.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Labor Issues, and International Development
Political Geography:
East Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina

8. Vote-Buying and Asymmetric Information

Author:
Rodrigo Zarazaga
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Previous works on vote-buying have highlighted that an informational advantage allows party machines to efficiently distribute discretionary transfers to voters. However, the microfoundations that allow party machines to electorally exploit their informational advantage have not yet been elucidated. The probabilistic model in this paper provides the microfounded mechanism that explains how party machines translate their informational advantage into more efficient allocation of discretionary transfers and win elections with higher probabilities than their contenders. Furthermore, its probabilistic design allows the model to account for why party machines target their own supporters with discretionary transfers. In-depth interviews with 120 brokers from Argentina motivate the model.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina

9. Women's Representation and Legislative Committee Appointments: The Case of the Argentine Provinces

Author:
Tiffany Barnes
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Over the last two decades a large number of countries worldwide have adopted a gender quota to increase women's political representation in the legislature. While quotas are designed to achieve equality in legislative power and decision-making, it is unclear if electing more women to legislative office is sufficient to accomplish institutional incorporation. Once women are elected to office, are they being incorporated into the legislative body and gaining their own political power, or are they being marginalized? Using an original data set that tracks committee appointments in the twenty-two Argentine legislative chambers over an eighteen-year period, I evaluate the extent to which women have access to powerful committee appointments—beyond traditional women's domains committees—and how women's access to committee appointments changes over time. I hypothesize that while women may initially be sidelined, as they gain more experience in the legislature they may overcome institutional barriers and develop institutional knowledge that will better equip them to work within the system to gain access to valuable committee appointments.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

10. The developmental state is dead, long live the developmental regime! Interpreting Néstor Kirchner's Argentina 2003–2007

Author:
Christopher Wylde
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Relations and Development
Institution:
Central and East European International Studies Association
Abstract:
The post-crisis administration of Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007) saw significant changes in the political economy of Argentina. After characterising these changes this article attempts to place the evidence within an appropriate meta-theoretical interpretation. The article concludes that while elements of historical forms of political economy exist in Néstor Kirchner's regime - elements of populism, elements of neoliberalism - in its entirety, one must look to other explanations not traditionally associated with Latin America, that is, the developmental regime. Such a conclusion facilitates both an enhanced understanding of post-crisis Argentine political economy, and an opportunity to further develop a developmental regime approach.
Topic:
Development and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

11. Visiting Cuba — Argentina's currency devaluation — Integrating new immigrants in the United States.

Author:
Robert Muse, Natalie Schachar, and Charles Kamasaki
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Americas Quarterly
Institution:
Council of the Americas
Abstract:
Travel Regulations: OFAC and Cuba BY ROBERT MUSE The re-opening of “people-to-people” travel to Cuba by President Barack Obama in early 2011 was the boldest and, arguably, the single most consequential step taken by his administration in relation to the island. It was in fact a revival of a Clinton-era exemption to the decades-old ban on U.S. citizens visiting that country. The exemption had been closed in 2003 by President George W. Bush. Visits to Cuba must meet two requirements to be approved as people-to-people travel: the travel must be for an educational purpose, not tourism; and there must be frequent “meaningful” interactions between the U.S. travelers and Cubans who are not officials of the government of Cuba. The educational requirement of people-to-people trips is most often met through cultural programs that explore such subjects as Cuban music, dance, fine art, and architectural history. However, among many other current offerings there are also environmentally themed trips, as well as programs focused on the Cuban health care and education systems. Since the program was re-introduced, an estimated 100,000 Americans have been visiting Cuba each year on people-to-people trips. The visits have been organized by a wide variety of groups, including the National Geographic Society, the Metropolitan Museum of Art and dozens of similar institutions. The travelers meet and talk with Cubans from different backgrounds and leave millions of dollars in the hands of non-state restaurateurs, artists, musicians, taxi drivers, and small farmers who supply the new private eateries of a changing Cuba.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Argentina, and Cuba

12. Declining Inequality in Latin America in the 2000s: The Cases of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico.

Author:
Nora Lustig, Luis F. Lopez-Calva, and Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Between 2000 and 2010, the Gini coefficient declined in 13 of 17 Latin American countries. The decline was statistically significant and robust to changes in the time interval, inequality measures, and data sources. In-depth country studies for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico suggest two main phenomena underlie this trend: a fall in the premium to skilled labor and more progressive government transfers. The fall in the premium to skills resulted from a combination of supply, demand, and institutional factors. Their relative importance depends on the country.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, and Mexico

13. The Impact of Taxes and Social Spending on Inequality and Poverty in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, and Peru: A Synthesis of Results

Author:
Nora Lustig
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We apply a standard tax-and-benefit-incidence analysis to estimate the impact on inequality and poverty of direct taxes, indirect taxes and subsidies, and social spending (cash and food transfers and in-kind transfers in education and health). The extent of inequality reduction induced by direct taxes and transfers is rather small (2 percentage points on average), especially when compared with that found in Western Europe (15 percentage points on average). What prevents Argentina, Bolivia, and Brazil from achieving similar reductions in inequality is not the lack of revenues but the fact that they spend less on cash transfers—especially transfers that are progressive in absolute terms—as a share of GDP. Indirect taxes result in that net contributors to the fiscal system start at the fourth, third, and even second decile on average, depending on the country. When in-kind transfers in education and health are added, however, the bottom six deciles are net recipients. The impact of transfers on inequality and poverty reduction could be higher if spending on direct cash transfers that are progressive in absolute terms were increased, leakages to the nonpoor reduced, and coverage of the extreme poor by direct transfer programs expanded.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, Health, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and Bolivia

14. A Matter of Transparency: The Top One Percent in the Americas

Author:
Nora Lustig
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Americas Quarterly
Institution:
Council of the Americas
Abstract:
It's time to measure the income share of Latin America's super-rich.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, Argentina, and Latin America

15. The Other BRIC in Latin America: India

Author:
Jorge Heine and R. Viswanathan
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Americas Quarterly
Institution:
Council of the Americas
Abstract:
India emerges as a major partner for Latin America.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, Brazil, Argentina, and Latin America

16. Child Budget Initiatives in Latin America

Author:
Alberto Minujin, Louise Moreira Daniels, and Javier Curcio
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
Children in Latin American (LA) countries were among the most vulnerable groups that suffered from the adjustment policies promoted by the “Washington Consensus” in the 1980s and 1990s. In that context, several organizations started initiatives to ensure and promote resources allocated by public budgets to children and women. This paper describes and analyzes the characteristics and main activities of such initiatives in a dozen LA countries, with in-depth analysis provided for three countries: Argentina, Brazil and Ecuador. A number of lessons are enumerated, which can serve as orientation for other regions, in particular for Africa.
Topic:
Development and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Africa, Washington, Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, and Ecuador

17. Elections and the Origins of an Argentine Democratic Tradition, 1810–1880

Author:
Eduardo Zimmermann
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The present paper addresses several issues raised by the evolution of the electoral institutions and practices developed in nineteenth-century Argentina, and the role they played in the country's further political development. On the basis of the pioneering works of a new political history, two features of that historical process are considered in particular: first, an early consolidation of democratic principles born out of a widely shared perception of egalitarian social conditions prevalent in the River Plate provinces; second, the development of political and electoral practices that over time were to militate against the establishment of “classical” institutions of political representation. Many of the features of nineteenth-century Argentine electoral life, which would shape a particular democratic culture in the twentieth century, are thus seen as the result of a particular historical combination of early egalitarian politics with weak institutions rather than as a reflection of a strategy of exclusion and control by ruling elites or some vague “antidemocratic” cultural legacy.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Politics, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

18. Earnings Mobility in Times of Growth and Decline: Argentina from 1996 to 2003

Author:
Gary S. Fields and María Laura Sánchez Puerta
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In recent years, the economy of Argentina has experienced both rapid economic growth and severe economic decline. In this paper, we use a series of one -year long panels to study who gained the most in pesos when the economy grew and who lost the most in pesos when the economy contracted. To answer these questions, we test two hypotheses both unconditionally and conditionally. The 'divergence of earnings' hypothesis holds that in any given year, the highest earning individuals are those who experienced the largest earnings gains or the smallest earnings losses in pesos. The 'symmetry of gains and losses' hypothesis holds that those groups that gained the most in pesos when the economy grew are those that lost the most in pesos when the economy contracted. Both hypotheses are decisively rejected in the data.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

19. Brazilian Counterterrorism Efforts: Legislative Progress, But Little Action on the Ground

Author:
David Jacobson and Matther Levitt
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In March, Brazilian authorities drafted a new antiterrorism law instituting stiff penalties for a variety of violent acts committed by both individuals and organizations. The new legislation, expected to pass Brazil's congress in a modified form, will likely be used to target criminal gangs from Brazil's indigent favela neighborhoods, not Middle Eastern terrorist groups operating in the Argentina-Brazil-Paraguay Tri-Border Area (TBA). Brazil denies that illegal terrorist activities are being conducted in the TBA, and it does not regard groups like Hizballah or Hamas as terrorist organizations. Much of the legal foundation needed to successfully combat international terrorism is already in place in Brazil, but the government has not demonstrated the will to confront the problem.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and South America

20. Latin American Catholicism in an Age of Religious and Political Pluralism: A Framework for Analysis

Author:
Frances Hagopian
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This article identifies and proposes a framework to explain the responses of Latin America's Roman Catholic churches to a new strategic dilemma posed by religious and political pluralism. Because the church's goals of defending institutional interests, evangelizing, promoting public morality, and grounding public policy in Catholic social teaching cut across existing political cleavages, Church leaders must make strategic choices about which to emphasize in their messages to the faithful, investment of pastoral resources, and alliances. I develop a typology of Episcopal responses based on the cases of Argentina, Chile, Brazil, and Mexico, and explain strategic choices by the church's capacity to mobilize civil society, its degree of religious hegemony, and the ideological orientations of Catholics. The analysis draws from 620 Episcopal documents issued since 2000.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile

21. Competition Law and Policy in Argentina

Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
In the past 25 years Argentina has made considerable, if uneven, progress toward building a successful market economy. In any country, an effective competition policy is an important part of that effort. Argentina's progress in competition policy has also been uneven, having been affected in many ways by the country's turbulent political and economic history.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

22. What Bond Markets Can Learn from Argentina

Author:
Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Argentina has completed the largest and most complex sovereign bond restructuring in history. Before the debt exchange, it owed about $82 billion in principal and $20 billion in past due interest. Hundreds of thousands of creditors held 150 kinds of defaulted instruments issued in six currencies under the laws of eight jurisdictions. Creditors owed just over 76% of the total, or $62 billion, got $35 billion in new performing bonds. Other performing debt includes $40 billion in domestic and about $30 billion in multi-lateral obligations. Argentina left behind almost $25 billion in defaulted principal and interest.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

23. Development Cycles, Political Regimes and International Migration

Author:
Andrés Solimano
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
At the turn of the twentieth century, a large number of Europeans, mostly from Italy and Spain, left their homelands and headed to the distant shores of Argentina in response to the good economic opportunities, fertile land and hopes for a better future that were to be found there. At the time, Argentina was one of the most vibrant world economies. Between 1870 and 1930, around seven million people migrated from Europe to Argentina, although nearly three million returned at some different point during those years. Also foreign capital responded to the opportunities offered by Argentina, and British financial institutions funded an important part of the construction of national infrastructure needed to support growth. In contrast, European migration to Argentina virtually stopped in the 1950s, and in the next 30 years or so the country become a net exporter of professionals who were fleeing economic decline, poor opportunities and authoritarian regimes. Moreover, during this period, financial capital steadily left Argentina looking for safer places. Nowadays, and in contrary to the flow of people a century ago, Argentineans are leaving in large numbers to Spain, Italy and other destinations. Emigration this time is associated with the collapse of the country's currency experiment of the 1990s which left a legacy of massive output decline, high unemployment, financial crisis and lost hopes.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, Migration, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Europe, Argentina, Spain, and Italy

24. The Effectiveness of Special Interventions in Latin American Public Primary Schools

Author:
Joan B. Anderson
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In pursuit of improved quality and more equity in education, public primary schools in Latin America have utilized several compensatory educational policies that include special interventions such as food aid programs, distribution of free textbooks, classroom libraries, in-service teacher training, extra classes and extra school sessions, tutors and mentors, and scholarships. Using data on children and schools in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, this paper presents the results of cross-country, empirical estimates of the effects of these interventions on language and math achievement and on the likelihood of promotion, both at the school level and at the level of individual children. Language and math achievement was measured by scores on UNESCO-developed language and math examinations administered to each of the 2,048 children in the sample. In addition, the paper addresses whether a particular intervention is equally effective in poor and non-poor environments and whether these compensatory interventions in fact target those who need them most. Empirical findings suggest that the most effective programs are classroom libraries, distribution of textbooks, distribution of food, and teacher training. For programs to be compensatory, the research indicates that better targeting of scarce resources toward low-income schools and children is needed
Topic:
Development, Education, and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile

25. Economic Development and Asymmetries in MERCOSUR: The Prospects of a MERCOSUR Regional Development Fund

Author:
Fernando Masi and Amaury Hoste
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
The signature of the Treaty of Asunción on March 26, 1991, by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay initiated the creation of a common market called the Mercado Común del Sur (Southern Common Market – MERCOSUR). The signatory governments hoped that the economic growth subsequent to the creation of this organization would contribute to a better convergence among them.
Topic:
Development and International Organization
Political Geography:
Brazil and Argentina

26. How Optimal are the Extremes? Latin American Exchange Rate Policies During the Asian Crisis

Author:
Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Guillermo Larraín
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
During the Asian crisis, intermediate exchange rate regimes vanished. It has been argued that those regimes were no longer useful and only the extremes remained valid. The paper analyses three foreign exchange regimes: Argentina (pegged), Chile (band) and Mexico (float). The Argentinean currency board delivered low financial volatility while it was credible, but even then it displayed high real volatility. Mexican float performed well in periods of instability isolating the real sector. The Chilean band delivered a mixed outcome as compared to Argentina and Mexico. This is linked apparently to a loss in the band's credibility, associated to policy mismanagement and an over-appreciation in the biennium before the crisis. Optimal exchange rate regimes vary across time and the conjuncture. Exit strategies are part of the election of the optimal system, including a flexible policy package rather than a single rigid policy tool.
Topic:
Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile

27. Ratings since the Asian Crisis

Author:
Helmut Reisen
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The increased importance of rating agencies for emerging-market finance has brought their work to the attention of a wider group of observers - and under criticism. This paper evaluates whether the importance of ratings for developing-country finance has changed since the Asian Crisis and whether rating agencies have modified the determinants for their rating decisions. It also provides an analysis on recent suggestions by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, as these are very important for gauging the future role of sovereign ratings for foreign debt finance in developing countries. While the explanatory power of conventional rating determinants has declined since the Asian crisis, recent rating performance for Argentina and Turkey can still be qualified as lagging the markets, as variables of financial-sector strength and the endogenous effects of capital flows on macroeconomic variables seem to remain underemphasized in rating assessments. The market impact of sovereign ratings is predicted to decline as agencies have started to modify their country ceiling policy and as market participants try to exploit bond trading opportunities arising from the lagged nature of ratings. The paper presents theory and evidence to suggest that the Basel II Accord will destabilise private capital flows to the developing countries, if the current proposal to link regulatory bank capital to sovereign ratings is maintained: Assigning fixed minimum capital to bank assets whose risk weights are in turn determined by market-lagging cyclically determined ratings will reinforce the tendency of the capital ratio to work in a pro-cyclical way.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Turkey, Asia, and Argentina