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2. The Future of US Strategic Competition with China
- Author:
- Atlantic Council
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Please join the Atlantic Council’s Asia Security Initiative, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, for a public panel discussion on forward-looking recommendations for the future of US-China relations and US strategy towards China. How should the United States and its allies work together to respond to China’s ongoing rise? What are the advantages and limits of the current US approach? Ultimately, can the United States and China be both strategic competitors and, at least in some areas, strategic cooperators at the same time? The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world. The Center honors General Brent Scowcroft’s legacy of service and embodies his ethos of nonpartisan commitment to the cause of security, support for US leadership in cooperation with allies and partners, and dedication to the mentorship of the next generation of leaders.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and America
3. HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series
- Author:
- Maciej Kotowski
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the formation of production and trading networks in an economy with general interdependencies and complex property rights. The right to exclude,a core tenet of property, grants asset owners a form of monopoly power that influences granular economic interactions. Equilibrium networks reflect the distribution of these ownership claims. Inefficient production networks may endure in equilibrium as firms multi-source to mitigate hold-up risk. Short supply chains also reduce this risk, but may preclude the production of complex goods. A generalized Top Trading Cycles algorithm, applicable to a production economy, identifies equilibrium outcomes in the model. Such outcomes can be decentralized via a price system.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and National & provincial initiatives
- Political Geography:
- America
4. Trump Isn’t Really Trying to End America’s Wars
- Author:
- Andrew J. Bacevich
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- Let us stipulate at the outset that President Trump is a vulgar and dishonest fraud without a principled bone in his body. Yet history is nothing if not a tale overflowing with irony. Despite his massive shortcomings, President Trump appears intent on recalibrating America’s role in the world. Initiating a long-overdue process of aligning U.S. policy with actually existing global conditions just may prove to be his providentially anointed function.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Global Focus
5. The Ukraine Whistleblowers and the Rise of Partisan Whistleblowing
- Author:
- Hannah Gurman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- This moment should spark a conversation about the place of national security whistleblowing in a democratic society.
- Topic:
- International Security, International Affairs, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Political Activism, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- America and Global Focus
6. Borrowers with Large Balances: Rising Student Debt and Falling Repayment Rates
- Author:
- Adam Looney and Constantine Yannelis
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- We examine the distribution of student loan balances and repayment rates in the United States using administrative student loan data. We show that increases in credit limits and expansions in credit availability resulted in rising borrowing amounts, and that the share of borrowers holding very large balances has surged. For instance, the share of borrowers leaving school with more than $50,000 of federal student debt increased from 2 percent in 1992 to 17 percent in 2014. Consequently, a small share of borrowers now owes the majority of loan dollars in the United States. Although these large-balance borrowers have historically strong labor market outcomes and low rates of default, repayment rates have slowed significantly between 1990 and 2014 reflecting, in part, changes in the characteristics of students, the schools they attended, and the rising amounts borrowed. A decomposition analysis indicates that changes in the types of institutions attended, student demographics, default rates, and increased participation of alternative repayment plans and forbearance largely explain the decrease in student loan repayment.
- Topic:
- Education and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
7. Trump, Xi and the eclipse of the liberal world order
- Author:
- Andreas Bøje Forsby
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Until recently, we were operating under the assumption that the liberal world order would prove sufficiently inclusive, productive and resilient to serve as a stable framework for international cooperation. But such optimism seems increasingly unwarranted as a wide host of existential challenges have materialized, including the return of geopolitics, the resurgence of autocratic leadership, the revival of economic protectionism and the rising tide of populism and nationalism.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
8. Unpacked: New trade tariffs and the U.S. economy
- Author:
- Eswar Prasad
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Brookings Senior Fellow Eswar Prasad unpacks the impact of the new steel and aluminum tariffs proposed by the Trump administration. He explains that the new tariffs have undermined America’s leadership as proponents of free trade and will decrease America’s economic influence across the globe.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America
9. Congress Can Be Bipartisan: The Case of Human Rights
- Author:
- USIP
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In an American political culture coarsened by belligerence, dozens within Congress still are shaping bipartisan foreign policies to maintain a strong U.S. defense of human rights worldwide. The ability of Congress to sustain bipartisanship on human rights issues is vital to long-term international stability and U.S. national security, according to the Republican and Democratic co-chairs of Congress’ prominent human rights group—the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission.
- Topic:
- Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- America
10. U.S. Leverage in South Asia: Enough to Meet Policy Goals?
- Author:
- Fred Strasser
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- As the U.S. seeks to advance its interests in South Asia 17 years into the Afghanistan war, a basic policy question unavoidably presents itself: How much leverage does America really have in the region?
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- America and South Asia
11. Threats to democracy in the Trump era
- Author:
- Brookings Institute
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- On February 7, David Frum joined a panel of experts at Brookings to discuss the burgeoning threats to democratic institutions in the Trump era.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- America
12. Trump Tariffs Primarily Hit Multinational Supply Chains, Harm US Technology Competitiveness
- Author:
- Mary Lovely
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- he Trump administration’s Section 301 tariffs are an ineffective response to US concerns about China’s high-technology aspirations. They are a prime example of 20th century tools aimed at the knowledge-embodying trade flows of the 21st century. Instead, these tariffs disadvantage American producers and harm US allies operating in East Asia while missing the mark on penalizing Chinese domestic firms that may have misappropriated US and other advanced economies’ technologies.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America
13. A Tale of Three Headlines
- Author:
- David Boaz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Democrats accuse President Trump of abuse of executive power and “thinking he is a dictator.” But then, Republicans made similar charges about President Obama. They all have a point. At least since the administration of Franklin D. Roosevelt, there has been a flow of power from civil society to government, from the states to the federal government, and from Congress to the executive branch. But a recent newspaper headline reminded me of some other headlines that tell a story.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
14. Repeal, Don’t Replace, the AUMF
- Author:
- Gene Healy
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- For the past 17 years, presidents have used the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) as a blank check to wage war whenever and wherever they please. Congress is now debating several replacement AUMFs—but these, too, pose the danger of granting the president far broader war powers than the Constitution envisioned. At a Capitol Hill Briefing, Cato’s GENE HEALY and JOHNGLASER made the case for repealing, rather than replacing, the AUMF.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
15. Why Americans pay too much for health care
- Author:
- Institute CATO
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Why do we pay $600 for EpiPens, a long-existing piece of technology that contains just a dollar’s worth of medicine? Why do hospitalized patients so frequently receive bills laden with inflated charges that come out of the blue from out-ofnetwork providers or that demand payment for services that weren’t delivered?
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
16. Checkpoint America
- Author:
- Institute Cato
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In April, Cato’s Patrick Eddington introduced his new online initiative Checkpoint America: Monitoring the Constitution-Free Zone.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
17. Cato Educates Capitol Hill
- Author:
- Cato Institute
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Congressional staff members play a vital role in shaping policy—they make decisions on which issues their bosses prioritize, which arguments the representatives and senators hear, and what language makes it into legislation. Cato’s popular Capitol Hill Briefings offer these staff members timely briefings on the most pressing issues facing their offices. At these events, Cato scholars and other experts update the staff on their latest scholarship and policy recommendations, critique current or upcoming legislation, and answer staffers’ questions.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
18. Your Uber Ambulance Has Arrived
- Author:
- Institute Cato
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Ambulances are notoriously expensive—one ride may cost more than $1,000, and insurance companies frequently refuse to cover them. In the past, patients had few alternatives to get themselves to the hospital—but in “Does Ride-Sharing Substitute for Ambulances?” (Research Briefs in Economic Policy no. 114), Leon S. Moskatel of Scripps Mercy Hospital and David J. G. Slusky of the University of Kansas demonstrate how the age of Uber and Lyft is changing that and is reducing expensive and unnecessary ambulance trips.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
19. Indispensable Remedy: The Broad Scope of the Constitution’s Impeachment Power
- Author:
- Gene Healy
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Presidential impeachments are vanishingly rare in American constitutional history: in the 230 years since ratification, only three presidents have faced serious attempts to remove them from office. And yet, as President Donald J. Trump’s tumultuous tenure continues, it seems increasingly plausible that we’ll see a fourth.
- Topic:
- International Affairs, Democracy, and Constitution
- Political Geography:
- America
20. Tax Reform and Interstate Migration
- Author:
- Chris Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was the largest overhaul of the federal income tax in decades. The law changed deductions, exemptions, and tax rates for individuals, while reducing taxes on businesses.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- America
21. The Impact of the Dodd-Frank Act on Small Business
- Author:
- Michael D Bordo
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Dodd Frank Act of 2010 (DFA) was designed to overcome the sources of excessive leverage and systemic risk in the U.S. financial sector perceived to have created the Great Financial Crisis of 2007–2008. Since then, considerable controversy has swirled around the efficacy of various components of the multifaceted act. Many have been critical of the Volcker Rule, while others have praised the elevation of capital ratios and the requirements for banks to undergo periodic stress tests. However, there has been mounting concern in the financial community, Congress, and the press over the negative impact of the DFA regulations on small banks and businesses.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America
22. Government and the Cost of Living Income-Based vs. Cost-Based Approaches to Alleviating Poverty
- Author:
- Ryan Bourne
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Federal, state, and local governments seek to assist poor households financially using transfers, minimum wage laws, and subsidies for important goods and services. This “income-based” approach to alleviating poverty aims both to raise household incomes directly and to shift the cost of items, such as food, housing, or health care, to taxpayers. Most contemporary ideas to help the poor sit firmly within this paradigm
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America
23. U.S. Citizens Targeted by ICE: U.S. Citizens Targeted by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in Texas
- Author:
- David Bier
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Texas law SB 4 imposes jail time on local police who fail to detain anyone whom federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) requests. Data from Travis County, Texas, show that ICE targets large numbers of U.S. citizens. From October 2005 to August 2017, 814 targets of ICE detainers in Travis County-3.3 percent of all requests-claimed U.S. citizenship and presented officers with a Social Security number (SSN). ICE subsequently canceled or declined to execute about a quarter of those detainer requests. Based on statements from ICE officials, the best explanation for not executing these detainers is that ICE targeted at least 228 U.S. citizens in the county before canceling or declining to execute those detainers. SB 4 will likely increase the detention of U.S. citizens for supposed violations of immigration law by preventing local police from releasing them.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- America
24. Could Trump Deliver Iran an Oil Windfall?
- Author:
- Richard Nephew
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The president’s recent statement that OPEC should reduce their prices may merely be an attempt to assign blame for rising gasoline prices in the midst of the US driving season or an even more cynical attempt to rally his political base in opposition to globalism. Or, it may have something to do with the president’s own decision to create a crisis with Iran. While attention is duly paid to how much Americans have to pay at the pump, a more subtle and complicated story will soon play out with respect to Iran and the reapplication of US sanctions ordered by Trump on May 8, 2018. In fact, unless oil prices are contained, the primary result of the president’s action may be to ensure that Iran profits from the oil market risks that sanctions have created.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Geopolitics, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America, Iran, and Global Focus
25. The Role of Natural Gas in Europe's Electricity Sector Through 2030
- Author:
- Tim Boersma and Tatiana Mitrova
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The developments underway in Europe’s natural gas sector are some of the most influential and closely watched in the global gas market. In the past decade, Europe has seen significant demand swings, falling domestic production, growing concerns about dependence on Russian gas, and the advent of US liquefied natural gas exports to the world. Just as important has been the emerging competition from renewable fuels. Indeed, questions are now arising about whether Europe needs new investments in natural gas infrastructure or if those investments would become stranded assets. However, suggesting that the EU does not need new investments risks underestimating the role—or the potential role—natural gas plays in various sectors of Europe’s energy economy, including industry, transportation, and commercial and residential usage.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America
26. The Energy, Economic, and Emissions Impacts of a Federal US Carbon Tax
- Author:
- Noah Kaufman and Kate Gordon
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Climate change is a serious threat to global progress and stability. Actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and stabilize global temperatures can avoid impacts of climate change on human health, the economy, national security, and the environment. But without a strong federal-level climate policy response from the United States, chances of serious global climate action are slim.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America
27. The Effects of Carbon Tax Policies on the US Economy and the Welfare of Households
- Author:
- John Diamond and George Zodrow
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The potential for utilizing a federal carbon tax to address the risks of climate change has been discussed in U.S. policy debates on both sides of the aisle. Under a carbon tax, consumers and producers would account for the costs of climate change in their decision making. The policy would reduce greenhouse gas emissions without sacrificing the efficiency of private markets.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Affairs, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- America
28. The United States braces itself for the midterm elections: Is there a foreign-policy dimension?
- Author:
- Ville Sinkkonen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Foreign policy rarely plays a decisive role in congressional elections in the US. However, President Trump’s tendency to mix foreign policy into the domestic debate might increase its salience. Electoral success for the Democrats could both constrain and embolden the president’s international conduct.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
29. The sustainability of the questionable US presidency: The Trump era might last longer than expected
- Author:
- Mika Aaltola
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The 2020 US presidential election could be a close call with a narrow margin of victory. Many key factors underlying Donald Trump’s 2016 electoral success are still active and might suffice to win over a very polarized electorate in an extremely ugly election.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- America
30. Government of the People, by the Elite, for the Rich Unequal Responsiveness in an Unlikely Case
- Author:
- Lea Elsässer, Svenja Hense, and Armin Schäfer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- Empirical studies have shown that US politics is heavily tilted in favor of the better-off, as political decisions tend to reflect the preferences of the rich while largely ignoring those of the poor and the middle classes. These findings have prompted a lively debate about potential mechanisms that cause this pattern of unequal responsiveness. Existing studies suggest that specific characteristics of the political system are a major explanatory factor – in particular, private donations and campaign financing. We build on these studies but focus for the first time on an entirely different case. In this paper, we ask whether similar patterns of unequal responsiveness are discernible in Germany, which not only is a more egalitarian country, but also funds election campaigns entirely differently from the US. We analyze an original dataset of more than 800 survey questions posed between 1980 and 2013. The questions deal with specific political decisions debated at the time and cover a broad range of politically relevant topics. Our results show a notable association between political decisions and the opinions of the rich, but none or even a negative association for the poor. Representational inequality in Germany thus resembles the findings for the US case, despite its different institutional setting. Against this background, we conclude by discussing potential mechanisms of unequal responsiveness
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- America
31. Advancing the U.S.-Korea Economic Agenda
- Author:
- Wendy Cutler and Hyemin Lee
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- For nearly 70 years, the United StatesRepublic of Korea (hereafter, Korea) alliance has remained strong, built mainly on shared strategic and national security interests. While the North Korean nuclear threat has long dominated political discussions and media headlines, today the economic pillar of the relationship is no less important. Economic engagement and cooperation have been strengthened since the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) went into effect in 2012, which in turn helped solidify the overall bilateral relationship.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America and Korea
32. A new Direction in U.S- Russia Relations?
- Author:
- Paul Saunders
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Abstract:
- America’s relationship with Russia was among the most controversial foreignpolicy issues of the 2016 presidential campaign, and has remained so in the Trump administration’s initial weeks. Much of the controversy has been strictly political, focused primarily on exploiting anger and suspicion toward Moscow as a weapon during the election campaign and, more recently, in confirmation hearings for President Donald Trump’s key foreign-policy and national-security nominees. That said, public discussion before and after the November election has also exposed sharp differences over U.S. policy toward Russia and the assessments of U.S. and Russian interests, objectives and values that shape Washington’s choices. This volume seeks to contribute to that debate by exploring U.S. options in pursuing President Trump’s stated intent to engage with Moscow
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Japan and America
33. The US Withdrawal from Syria: Causes, Contexts and Consequences
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Trump’s decision leaves the Kurdish nationalists of the KDP defenceless and, with their patron gone, will likely cause splits among Arab forces allied with Kurdish militiamen. Regionally, it sends a message to US allies in the Gulf about the Trump’s commitment to the Iran-containment strategy.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Syria
34. Indo-US Strategic Partnership and Regional Politics
- Author:
- Mujahid Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Abstract:
- The United States and India relationship has changed from offense to more extensive engagement since 2004. With mutual interest and potential of both, the US and India relationship has matured into a strategic partnership through mutual atomic cooperation. This paper investigates the cost and advantage of the strategic partnership of India and the US and the effect on the South Asian balance of power in the backdrop of PakUS relationships. It additionally concentrates on the security structure of the neighborhood, and challenges for the US to keep up strategic partnerships with the opponents India and Pakistan
- Topic:
- Politics and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- America and India
35. Proposed Public Charge Rule Would Significantly Reduce Legal Admissions and Adjustment to Lawful Permanent Resident Status of Working Class Persons
- Author:
- Donald Kerwin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Migration Studies of New York
- Abstract:
- On October 10, 2018, the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued its long-anticipated proposed rule on inadmissibility on public charge grounds.[1] The rule seeks to “better ensure” that applicants for admission to the United States as immigrants (permanent residents) and nonimmigrants (temporary residents),[2] as well as applicants for adjustment to lawful permanent resident (LPR) status within the United States, will be “self-sufficient” and “not depend on public resources to meet their needs, but rather rely on their own capabilities and the resources of their family, sponsor, and private organizations.”[3] Under the proposed rule, US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) officers would consider receipt of cash benefits and, in a break from the past, non-cash medical, housing, and food benefits in making public charge determinations. The proposed DHS rule details the factors — positive and negative — to be weighed in these decisions.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- America
36. The Outlook for Energy Under a Trump Administration Major Volatility Ahead
- Author:
- David L. Goldwyn
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Oil, gas, and renewable energy markets will face high levels of uncertainty and potentially extreme volatility under a Trump administration in 2017. Some of these uncertainties flow from questions about the new administration’s yet-undefined policies on energy production, trade, and climate policy. Others flow from the basket of national security risks that a new US President was destined to inherit. Yet it is Mr. Trump’s signaling of major shifts in US foreign policy priorities that may have the greatest near-term impact on energy supply and demand. The impact of these uncertainties, following two years of reduced oil and gas investment and low energy prices, may inhibit investment and sow the seeds of a potential oil and gas price shock by 2020, if not sooner.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Post Truth Politics
- Political Geography:
- America and Global Focus
37. The Outlook for Energy Under a Trump Administration Major Volatility Ahead
- Author:
- David L. Goldwyn
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Oil, gas, and renewable energy markets will face high levels of uncertainty and potentially extreme volatility under a Trump administration in 2017. Some of these uncertainties flow from questions about the new administration’s yet-undefined policies on energy production, trade, and climate policy. Others flow from the basket of national security risks that a new US President was destined to inherit. Yet it is Mr. Trump’s signaling of major shifts in US foreign policy priorities that may have the greatest near-term impact on energy supply and demand. The impact of these uncertainties, following two years of reduced oil and gas investment and low energy prices, may inhibit investment and sow the seeds of a potential oil and gas price shock by 2020, if not sooner.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Post Truth Politics
- Political Geography:
- America and Global Focus
38. Cyber and Deterrence: The Military-Civil Nexus in High-End Conflict
- Author:
- Franklin Kramer, Robert J Butler, and Catherine Lotrionte
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes cyber’s role in deterrence and defense—and specifically the military-civil nexus and the relationship between the Department of Defense (DoD), the civil agencies, and the key private operational cyber entities, in particular the Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and electric grid operators. The focus of the paper is on high-end conflict including actions by an advanced cyber adversary, whether state or nonstate, and not on the “day-to-day” intrusions and attacks as regularly occur and are generally dealt with by governmental agencies and the private sector without military involvement. High-end conflict can be expected to include attacks within the United States homeland as well as in forward theatres.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, International Security, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- America and Global Focus
39. Reinvigorating U.S. Economic Strategy in the Asia Pacific
- Author:
- Charlene Barshefsky, Evan G. Greenberg, and Jon M. Huntsman Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Asia Pacific is home to over half of humanity and many of the world’s largest and most dynamic economies. Over the coming decades, no region of the world will do more to shape U.S. economic fortunes. More than ever before, American jobs and growth are tied to the Asia Pacific, and these opportunities are likely to grow. But the region is undergoing profound change. Today, mutually beneficial relations with the Asia Pacific are challenged by slowing growth, a rise in security tensions, and threats to the U.S.-led order. The rise of China is altering the Asia-Pacific landscape in profound ways and playing a critical role in the region’s prosperity and perceived stability. These economic and security shifts offer opportuni- ties for the United States to strengthen cooperation with emerging economies and reinforce part- nerships with established allies. But new policies are needed in what has become a more volatile environment. These policies must be grounded in the enduring interests of the United States and informed by the realities of a changing Asia Pacific. And just as economics is at the heart of Asia’s rise, so must economics be at the heart of an effective strategy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- America and Asia-Pacific
40. Public Diplomacy and National Security in 2017
- Author:
- Katherine A Brown, Shannon N. Green, and Jian “Jay” Wang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Throughout the world, citizens are increasingly flexing their muscles and shaping their governments’ decisionmaking on domestic and foreign affairs. Expanded access to information, facilitated by new media and communication technologies, has greatly empowered nonstate actors and strengthened their role in international politics. In this environment, the U.S. government cannot afford to solely engage in state-to-state diplomacy. The new global landscape requires foreign ministries and diplomats to go beyond bilateral and multilateral diplomacy and broaden and deepen relationships with a broad and diverse range of actors. The public diplomacy (PD) toolkit of informational, educational, and cultural programs is central to this objective by creating and maintaining relationships with influential leaders and opinion-makers in civil society, commerce, media, politics, and faith communities worldwide. This paper attempts to capture the lessons that the U.S. government and PD experts have learned over the past eight years in applying PD tools in order to chart an effective course for the incoming administration.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Security, Non State Actors, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- America
41. Issues & Insights Vol. 17 - No. 1 - 4th US/UK-Myanmar Nonproliferation Dialogue
- Author:
- Carl W Baker and Federica Dall’ Arche
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- There have been remarkable transformations in UK/US-Myanmar relations over the past few years with the signing of trade agreements, lifting of sanctions, and investments. Nevertheless, some issues such as the government’s alleged violations of the human rights of minority ethnic groups have prevented better relations. There is currently a fairly wide gap in perceptions regarding the issue of human rights violations in the Rakine State. While some outsiders accuse the government of genocide or ethnic cleansing, the Myanmar government has consistently portrayed its actions as justified based on the need for counterterrorism measures against international terrorists. An open dialogue over these
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, International Security, International Affairs, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Britain, America, and Myanmar
42. Rethinking a Key U.S. Strategic Interest: Energy Stability, Energy Independence, and the United States as a Net Exporter
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Ever since the oil embargo following the October 1973 Arab-Israeli conflict, the United States has tended to measure its strategic interests in energy in terms of its dependence on direct imports of oil and gas. The new Annual Energy Outlook of the U.S. Energy Information Administration was issued on January 5, 2017. [i] Taken at face value, it reports that United States has reversed its past dependence on energy imports in spite of massive cut in world oil prices.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- America
43. U.S.-Sino Relations in the Arctic A Roadmap for Future Cooperation
- Author:
- Heather A. Conley
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The emergence of the Arctic as a region of political and economic opportunity adds a new dimension to U.S.-China relations. Despite divergent priorities in the region, there are opportunities for greater cooperation. Both countries experience the physical challenges of climate change while investing in scientific research to gain a better understanding of a transforming Arctic. They both also seek cooperation through the Arctic Council and the International Maritime Organization to promote governance in the region. For these reasons, among others, the United States and China should create a more purposeful dialogue on a range of Arctic issues. U.S.-Sino Relations in the Arctic: A Roadmap for Future Cooperation is the result of fruitful exchanges between American and Chinese experts who addressed a range of issues: the future of Arctic governance, geopolitical factors shaping the Arctic’s future, international maritime issues in the Central Arctic Ocean, future trends in sustainable Arctic development, and new bilateral scientific research initiatives in the Arctic. Through frank and candid exchanges, this report aims to lay the foundation of strong bilateral cooperation between the United States and China in the Arctic.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Geopolitics, and Climate Finance
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Arctic
44. Staying Ahead of Trump on Security Requires a Holistic Review of Canadian National Security
- Author:
- Alan Stephenson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- It is time for the Canadian government to conduct a holistic review of Canada’s national security complex. The Defence Policy Review is floundering as a consequence of an uncooperative world, Canada’s domestic security institutions require legislative empowerment, and the election of Donald Trump has placed increased pressure on Canadian security and defence. Securing the U.S.’s northern border is a no-fail mission for Canada as peace and prosperity depend upon it. However, this must be done within Canadian security norms and values. Only a ground-up examination of the Canadian national security system will elicit a comprehensive understanding of the current deficiencies that will allow focused alignment of government objectives, policies and public funds. Crisis management requires a strategic plan with clear objectives from which to conduct concurrent and coordinated activities. The Trudeau government has the team in place; now, it needs a new National Security Policy statement to assist in “lead turning” an unconventional U.S. administration steadfast in its stance over national security.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- America and Canada
45. Tightening by Stealth: Why keeping the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve constant is equivalent to a gradual exit
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Exiting from unconventional monetary policies is now a key issue for central banks, and especially for the US Federal Reserve. This paper argues that the Fed already began this exit some time ago, and that the relevant part of its balance sheet has already shrunk by about one-quarter of GDP. Pursuing the current policy of reinvesting would lead to a full exit within ten years.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America
46. Non-territorial indigenous self-governance in Canada and the United States
- Author:
- Raphaëlle Mathieu-Bédard
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- Indigenous peoples and minorities throughout the world have endeavoured for centuries to rid themselves from colonialism and oppression, while governments struggle to recognize indigenous and minority rights and minorities’ rightful standing in society. Varied approaches have been adopted, with varying degrees of success – but much can be learned from past and current victories and mistakes. Both in Canada and in the United States, the federal governments have historically held exclusive and virtually unlimited authority over their indigenous populations. Yet, based on divergent interpretations of the ‘doctrine of discovery’, the two countries have long developed differing policies regarding the self-government of their indigenous[i] nations, inevitably influencing their respective indigenous self-determination movements and the emergence of indigenous, non-territorial institutions.
- Topic:
- Minorities and International Development
- Political Geography:
- America and Canada
47. The U.S.-Japan-ROK Strategic Triangle & Maritime Security: Building Capacity in Northeast Asia and in the Broader Indo-Pacific Region
- Author:
- Charles Perry and Bobby Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
- Abstract:
- This report summarizes key findings and policy recommendations developed by IFPA over the course of a two-year research and workshop project on the prospects for and future direction of U.S.-Japanese-South Korean maritime cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Maritime Commerce
- Political Geography:
- Japan, America, and South Korea
48. The Trump-Putin Meeting: From Hamburg to Southern Syria
- Author:
- Zvi Magen and Udi Dekel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The arrangement between the United States and Russia over southern Syria represents a test, both for the chances of jumpstarting a coordinated process between the world powers over a future settlement in Syria and for the relations between them on other contested issues. Israel was not mentioned in the context of the ceasefire arrangement, but it has scored several achievements. Nonetheless, Israel is likely to confront an attempt by President Assad to advance forces to southwest Syria and the Golan Heights. Because Assad’s forces rely on help from Iran’s proxies – Shiite militias and Hezbollah – Israel may have to fulfill a counter-threat if any of the red lines it announced are crossed.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
49. Politics & Polls #51: The Trump-Russia Story with Benjamin Wittes
- Author:
- Julian Zelizer and Sam Wang
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- President Donald Trump has spent his first months faced with a potential scandal involving Russia, an issue that’s only grown since the election with discussions and investigations about possible obstruction and collusion. In recent weeks, this has dominated national political debates, especially in Congress and the White House. Benjamin Wittes, co-founder and editor-in-chief of the Lawfare blog, joins this episode of Politics & Polls to discuss where things stand in the Trump-Russia scandal. The Lawfare blog is “devoted to sober and serious discussion of ‘hard national security choices.’” Wittes, a journalist who focuses on national security and law, is also a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution. He is the author of “Detention and Denial: The Case for Candor After Guantanamo”, published in November 2011; co-editor of “Constitution 3.0: Freedom and Technological Change,” published in December 2011; and editor of “Campaign 2012: Twelve Independent Ideas for Improving American Public Policy,” published in May 2017 by the Brookings Institution Press.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
50. The Right to Bear Arms in the Virginia Constitution and the Second Amendment
- Author:
- Stephen Halbrook
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Independent Institute
- Abstract:
- The right to keep and bear arms in Virginia is guaranteed by both the state and federal constitutions. Article I, section 13, of the Virginia Constitution provides in part: ‘‘That a well regulated militia, composed of the body of the people, trained to arms, is the proper, natural, and safe defense of a free state, therefore, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed . . . .’’ The first clause dates to 1776, while the second clause was not adopted until 1971. The Second Amendment to the United States Constitution was adopted in 1791 and provides: ‘‘A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.’’
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- America