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  • Author: Carmel Davis
  • Publication Date: 09-2018
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
  • Institution: School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
  • Abstract: What are the implications of climate change for security in low-income countries? As global warming approaches and passes 1.5°C, climate change will reduce income, disrupt social relations, and fragment authority. I focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) because its large agricultural sector is sensitive to climate change and will likely see effects earlier than in other regions. The first section discusses climate change, particularly on the large agricultural sector in SSA. The next two sections analyze two channels by which climate change will affect SSA. First, a survey of quantitative analyses demonstrates a correlation between the level and growth of income and the outbreak of civil wars; climate change will likely decease income in the agricultural sector so the frequency of civil war outbreak will likely increase. Second, climate change will reduce the salience of then-current qualitative strategies of survival and increase the salience of new ones, which will likely increase social disruption and reduce government authority. The last sections discuss adaptation and conclude that a major effect of climate change will be fragmented authority and increased disorder in low-income areas.
  • Topic: Security, Agriculture, Civil War, Climate Change, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Africa