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1. The Tanzanian state response to COVID-19: Why low capacity, discursive legitimacy, and twilight authority matter

Author:
Amy S. Patterson
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Tanzania received significant global attention for its COVID-19 response during the first year of the pandemic. It did not share pandemic statistics, require masks, implement lockdowns, or close borders; it questioned testing and vaccine efficacy; and it emphasized traditional medicines as a cure. The country’s response reflected a centralized, paternalistic state that emerged under postcolonial president Julius Nyerere and that stressed self-reliance and national unity. Although local officials did have some discretion to respond, the state’s top-down solutions, its low capacity, and the broader campaign against bureaucratic corruption curtailed the space in which they could act. Nyerere’s legitimating discourse of nationalism, self-reliance, and paternalism further problematized the global cooperation needed to address the pandemic and limited the space in which civil society could challenge state actions. The state’s struggle for authority in the face of nonstate actors such as opposition parties and civil society groups led it to embrace strategies such as electoral authoritarianism to maintain control, thereby obscuring transparency and accountability in the pandemic. The focus on state capacity, legitimacy, and authority situate individual leaders’ actions in broader structural contexts, while also showing African state agency.
Topic:
Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Elections, Legitimacy, Capacity, and Authority
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

2. Justifications of Repression in Autocracies: An Empirical Analysis of the Maghreb, 2000–2010

Author:
Maria Jousa
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Previous studies on the justification of repression have analysed large-scale protests, about which autocratic officials communicate to avoid backlash effects. However, we know much less about how everyday repression against dissidents and ordinary citizens is communicated and justified under authoritarianism. This paper is the first to systematically investigate how officials in autocracies justify, conceal, or deny different forms of repression employed by different state institutions. It studies the communication of repression in two North African autocracies, drawing on the novel Justifications of Repressive Incidents in Morocco and Tunisia Dataset. The dataset contains 439 events between 2000–2010 and disaggregates the various dimensions of repression and its communication. The empirical analysis shows that the chosen forms of repression influence patterns of communication and justification. Studying the communication of repression helps us better understand the nexus of authoritarian legitimation and political violence in the Middle East and North Africa region and beyond.
Topic:
Governance, Authoritarianism, Leadership, and Repression
Political Geography:
Africa and Maghreb

3. International Dimensions of Authoritarian Persistence in the MENA Region: Revisiting US Foreign Aid to Egypt in the post-2011 Arab Uprisings Era

Author:
Eman Ratrout and Nur Köprülü
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The majority of studies that examine political liberalization and democratization in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region concentrate on internal factors such as Islamic or patriarchal culture, oil rents, socio-economic structures and patrimonialism. This article argues instead that external factors under the cloak of aid represent one of the main dynamics impeding democratic transformation in the region, and precisely supports authoritarian regime consolidation. In this regard, Egypt can be described as a case of authoritarian stability in the post-2011 Arab Uprisings era in which politics and stability rather than democratization and/ or development agenda have become the main motive behind donor decisions hitherto. In this article, Egypt has been selected as a case study to illuminate how the increased hopes and dividends of democratic transition from the Arab Uprisings can swiftly turn into upholding authoritarian rule.
Topic:
Foreign Aid, Hegemony, Authoritarianism, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, and MENA

4. Reimagining the Future of Human Rights: Social Justice, Environmental Justice and Democracy in the Global South

Author:
Jessica Corredor Villamil
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
This book is the collective effort of participants from the 2018 Global Action-Research Workshop for Young Human Rights Advocates, which Dejusticia has been organizing annually since 2013. These workshops aim to strengthen the abilities of young activists from the global South to achieve a greater impact in their human rights work and to reach a wider audience through new forms of narration. This book is just one of the many outcomes of the 2018 workshop. The talented and committed authors of this volume—all contributors to previous editions as well—hail from countries as diverse as Brazil, Ghana, Russia, and Venezuela. They came together again in 2018 to think about the intersection between research and activism and what it holds for the future of human rights. That is why our selection process for the 2018 workshop participants sought to ensure that two people from each cohort were working from a transnational perspective. The specific goal of this particular workshop was to reflect on the future of human rights, for we sensed that we were at a crossroads. With the recent rise in populist authoritarian governments, the global increase in inequality, and the worsening climate crisis, a number of thought leaders have wondered whether we have reached “the endtimes of human rights” (Hopgood 2013). We thus wished to use this workshop as an opportunity to respond to some of the most frequent criticisms of the efficacy and legitimacy of the human rights movement by drawing on historical and empirical arguments and responding to the reflections of Kathryn Sikkink—one of the workshop’s instructors—in her book Evidence for Hope (2017). Human rights defenders and activists are working in a world that is constantly changing. It’s a more multipolar world; powerful voices have emerged from the global South, which has reshaped the way that human rights work is being done across the globe. Furthermore, the Arab Spring and other social mobilizations that have since taken place have put the spotlight on civil society’s ability to act and its convening 12 Jessica Corredor-Villamil authority. Nonetheless, despite the fairly positive outlook for civil society participation and the emergence of new voices, it is necessary to review the strategies that we have been using thus far and explore how to make them more effective. This book is extremely relevant today, three years after the workshop, as we are living in a transformative time. The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented socioeconomic and political impacts, including increases in inequality, unemployment, states’ abuses of their emergency powers, and the concentration of presidential power. Moreover, social networks have played a critical role in the sociopolitical arena, not only in light of their capacity to massively mobilize but also due to their propensity to foster political polarization and the use of misinformation for political ends. Thus, although we face a different context from the one in 2018, this volume serves as a guide of sorts to help us reconsider the effectiveness of our strategies as a human rights movement as we look toward the challenges being posed by the third century of this decade. The contributors to this book question traditional methods and explore new ways and visions of advancing human rights in the troubled context in which we live. Do the struggles of small-scale miners in Ghana, the use of strategic litigation in Lebanon, and the recognition of the rights of nature in India represent evidence for hope? Or is the opposite true, and, as shown in the chapters on martial law in the Philippines, the treatment of wastewater in Argentina, and in the internal conflict in Yemen, human rights have failed to deliver on their promises?
Topic:
Human Rights, Water, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Social Justice, Surveillance, Indigenous, COVID-19, Armed Conflict, and Environmental Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, Middle East, India, Argentina, Philippines, Yemen, South America, Hungary, Lebanon, Venezuela, Ghana, and Global South

5. Tanzania’s 2020 Election: Return of the One-Party State

Author:
Michaela Collord
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Beginning with early voting in Zanzibar on October 27, 2020, Tanzanians went to the polls in a general election for district councilors, Members of Parliament (MPs) and the President. As official results began to be declared, it became clear that Tanzania’s long-time ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi, had won a landslide. After significant opposition party gains in recent elections, these results constituted a dramatic reversal and a de facto return to one-party rule. Opposition parties continue to challenge this outcome, denouncing what they affirm was not a genuine election but a state-orchestrated sham. Reflecting on these dramatic shifts, this study addresses two questions: What explains the election results? And what are the implications for Tanzanian politics going forward? The main point is that the 2020 elections were a result of President John Pombe Magufuli’s efforts to consolidate authoritarian control after he first came to power in 2015. The study outlines how Magufuli used his first term not only to marginalize opposition parties but also to centralize power within the ruling party. It then examines how these processes intensified ahead of the election, culminating in the official declaration of an overwhelming Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) victory at all levels. The note concludes by discussing the implications of this election outcome for Magufuli’s second term, focusing on his control of parliament and the possibility of a constitutional amendment lifting presidential term limits.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

6. Russia’s Foreign Policy: The Internal-International Link

Author:
Aldo Ferrari, Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti, Maxim Matusevich, Marianne Belenkaya, Andrei Kolesnikov, Alicja Curanović, Alexander Graef, and Paola Magri
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
What drives Russia’s foreign policy in Vladimir Putin’s times? Why did the Kremlin decide to annex Crimea, occupy South Ossetia, intervene in Syria, or give its blessing to Nord Stream II? When explaining Russia’s foreign policy, the consolidation of Putin’s autocratic tendencies and his apparent stability despite many economic and political challenges have contributed – at least in the West – to an excessive “Putin-centrism” and the relative neglect of other agents of domestic politics. As a result, many facets of the country’s foreign policy decisions are misunderstood or shrouded under a thin veil of vagueness and secrecy. This Report attempts to fill this gap, exploring the evolving distribution of political and economic power under the surface of Putin’s leadership to assess the influence of different “lobbies” on Russia’s foreign policy. Who decides what in Moscow? The answer, unsurprisingly, is not always “Vladimir Putin”. All of the contributions in the volume underline the complexity of Russia’s decision-making process beneath the surface of a monolithic and increasingly personalistic government.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, Authoritarianism, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Eurasia

7. Resilience in Post-civil War, Authoritarian Burundi: What Has Worked and What Has Not?

Author:
Gervais Rufyikiri
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In Burundi the rise of authoritarianism during the post-civil war period fuelled endless political tensions that resulted in intermittent violent but low-intensity conflicts. This Geneva Paper focuses on identifying and understanding the drivers of the positive outlook that characterises Burundians even though the country has often been on the brink of relapsing into a major civil war. The most striking observation is that Burundians have demonstrated a notable capacity for resilience. Resilience theory is briefly discussed, followed by sections on the dynamics of violent conflicts in Burundi, resilient post-war politics, and attempts to heal the country after the ending of the civil war. The role of non-state domestic actors, international actors and community-level actors are then discussed in this regard.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Conflict, Violence, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

8. Fragile States Index 2021 – Annual Report

Author:
Natalie Fiertz, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Emily Sample, and Wendy Wilson
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Employment, Fragile States, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Tajikistan, Germany, Armenia, Central America, Spain, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, North America, Ethiopia, Southeast Asia, El Salvador, Global Focus, and United States of America

9. The Challenges for Social Movements in Post-Mugabe Zimbabwe

Author:
Gladys Kudzaishe Hlatywayo and Charles Mangongera
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Civil society and social movements have long been at the center of pushing back against corruption and authoritarian practices. Zimbabwe was no exception in the run-up to the November 2017 coup d’état that ousted Robert Mugabe after four decades of unaccountable rule. This report, based on in-country interviews and focus group discussions, examines the transition that followed the coup to draw broader lessons for how the international community can support, without harming, grassroots nonviolent action initiatives in countries undergoing profound political shifts.
Topic:
Politics, Social Movement, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Coup
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

10. How Sudan Transitions

Author:
Hamid Eltgani Ali
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Sudan’s path to democracy has been a rocky one, and there are several key players who need to ensure it never returns to an autocratic state.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Ideology
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan