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32. Strengthening Sahelian Counterinsurgency Strategy
- Author:
- Michael Shurkin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Adapting Sahelian force structures to lighter, more mobile, and integrated units will better support the population-centric COIN practices needed to reverse the escalating trajectory of violent extremist attacks.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Counterinsurgency, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel
33. Why Elections Won’t Happen in Libya
- Author:
- Asma Khalifa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The 2021 agreement on holding elections was perceived by many Libyans as the light at the end of the dark tunnel of civil war and a reset to the political stagnation and the legal crisis. More than 2.5 million Libyans registered to vote, only for them to watch on the media a deliberate sabotage by those who were trusted in the process to commit to the agreement. While Libya is again setting the ground for future elections, this paper puts forward three points on why elections will not happen in Libya.
- Topic:
- Government, Democracy, Conflict, and Voting
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
34. Normalizing Relations Between Israel and the Arab World Continues Calmly in a Turbulent World
- Author:
- Hillel Frisch
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Arab publics are engrossed by the challenges that they face in their states.
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Violence, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Middle East
35. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Munsu Kang
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This study investigates the climate change impacts on agriculture and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). SSA is the most vulnerable region responding to the weather shocks such as drought and flood. Furthermore, more than half of population in SSA are engaged in agricultural production that is highly affected by the rainfall pattern and temperature increases. For this reason, disruption of agriculture caused by the weather shock also can increase the probability of conflict such as demonstration and riot. This study focuses on 43 SSA countries after excluded small islands. Using scenario analysis, we find that temperature increases rather than precipitation might affect maize and sorghum production negatively while it is unclear for the rice production. We also find that increases in average temperature and maximum temperature might increase the probability of conflicts even if the effects of climate on riot and demonstration are U-shape pattern while it is reverse U-shape for battle and civilian conflicts.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
36. Lives at Risk: A study of girls dropping out of school in Juba, Rumbek and Pibor Counties, South Sudan
- Author:
- Lillian Rutandaro, Christine Lundambuyu Minalula, Rogers Otuta, and Manenji Mangundu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- This study was undertaken by Oxfam in three South Sudanese counties as part of the SIDA-funded project 'Building Resilience through Gender and Conflict-Sensitive Approaches to Education, Skills Development, and Sustainable Livelihoods'. Its purpose was to shed light on why so many girls drop out of school. The research revealed that women and girls often lack decision-making power over their lives. Early or forced marriage, the abduction of girls, perceptions that education delays marriage – and that educated girls risk not finding husbands – all contribute to dropout rates. Additional challenges include a lack of adequate hygiene and sanitation facilities in schools, the distances learners need to travel, insecurity caused by communal violence, floods, food insecurity, and a heavy household work burden. The Government of South Sudan has in place laws and policies to address these issues, but they remain largely on paper and enforcement mechanisms are weak. The report analyses each of these factors in turn and presents recommendations for how the SIDA project can begin to address them in its future programming.
- Topic:
- Development, Education, Food, Conflict, Resilience, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
37. Environment, Conflict and Peacebuilding: Addressing the Root Causes of Conflict in Darfur
- Author:
- Zurab Elzarov
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The relationship between climate change and deadly conflict is complex and context-specific, but it is undeniable that climate change is a threat multiplier that is already increasing food insecurity, water scarcity and resource competition, while disrupting livelihoods and spurring migration. In turn, deadly conflict and political instability are contributing to climate change.[2] Darfur captured international headlines in 2004 when United States (US) Secretary of State Colin Powell declared that genocide was occurring in Sudan in his testimony to the US Senate.[3] The early-2000s conflict in Darfur between rebel groups on one side and government forces and allied militias on the other caused an estimated 300 000 deaths, and about 2.5 million people live in displacement camps across Darfur.[4] Most observers agree that the immediate cause was a regional rebellion, to which Khartoum responded by recruiting Arab militias, known as the Janjaweed, to wage a campaign of ethnic cleansing against African civilians.[5] They also argue that the three core drivers of violence in Darfur at present are disputes over land and resources, the complex network of militias and paramilitary forces, and the weakness of the rule of law and security institutions.[6] Eighteen years after the eruption of the conflict in Darfur, these conclusions regarding the main causes and triggers of the conflict remain valid. In 2021, despite the signed Juba Peace Agreement, the security situation in Darfur remained volatile, with significant inter-communal violence and fighting between government forces and rebels in the Jebel Marra area. The instability in the region continues to cause large-scale displacement, with more than 200 000 people displaced in Darfur since the beginning of 2021.
- Topic:
- Environment, Conflict, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Darfur
38. Natural Resource (In)justice, Conflict and Transition Challenges in Africa: Lessons from the Niger Delta
- Author:
- Luke Amadi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The term ‘natural resource (in)justice’ has been used in various contexts by various scholars. Contemporary resource justice scholarship highlights several different areas of debate, including power and inequality in resource access, control, ownership, greening, eco-efficiency, feminist ecology, resource transparency, just transitions,[1] resource equity, resource rights, and fairness with regards to global inequality in North/South natural resource policies.[2] Resource injustice underlines two dynamic and interwoven contexts. First, there is the anthropogenic context, which examines the adverse effects of natural resource extraction on humans, including exclusion, degradation, inequality, and unfair treatment in natural resource allocation. Second, there is the eco-centric context, which explores the adverse effects of natural resource extraction on the ecosystem or the natural environment. The broader terrain within which natural resource justice is being pursued is rapidly changing. With the rise of natural resource justice movements, new ecological threats, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, and lethal feedback with deleterious capitalist resource extraction in the global South, resource justice is confronted with new challenges, notably resource conflict. Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a considerable and increasing number of studies on natural resource conflict, including on questions of resource appropriation or what has become known in resource conflict debates as the ‘resource curse’, which points out the paradox of poverty among resource-rich countries.[3] Conflict and poverty are intertwined. In 2013, 471 million people lived in fragile and conflict-affected countries, while 78% of the world’s poor lived in these countries (181 million people).[4] Natural resources – land, water, forests, air – are essential to life on Earth.[5] Natural resource conflict accounts for the incompatibility of goals in natural resource use or appropriation. The rural poor in developing countries remain the most vulnerable, as they directly depend on natural resources for their food and livelihood security, while the livelihoods of 2.5 billion people depend wholly or partly on agriculture.[6] The dynamics of fair and equitable resource allocation in contexts associated with resource injustice are largely unknown. This is true especially where the resource-bearing local population is either marginalised or excluded in decision-making processes regarding natural resources.
- Topic:
- Environment, Natural Resources, Transitional Justice, Conflict, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Niger Delta
39. Peacebuilding Policies and Frameworks in Kenya
- Author:
- Sylvan Odidi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Peacebuilding is both a contested and evolving concept,with no universally accepted definition.[1] Despite being a broadly fluid term without clear guidelines or goals, most scholars agree that the fundamental task of peacebuilding is to improve human security.[2] The term first emerged through Johan Galtung’s peace work. He advocated for the establishment of a peacebuilding system to stimulate long-lasting peace by finding a solution to sources of violent conflicts and enhancing local capacities for conflict resolution and peace management.[3] A report by Boutros Boutros-Ghali entitled ‘An Agenda for Peace: Preventive Diplomacy, Peacemaking and Peace-Keeping’ refers to peacebuilding as ‘an action to identify and support structures which will tend to strengthen and solidify peace to avoid a relapse into conflict’.[4] A peacebuilding agenda is critical in the realisation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which advocate for ‘peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, access to justice for all and building effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels’.[5] In the Kenyan context, peacebuilding activities and regulatory frameworks are recognised as vital processes and instruments that are necessary for the achievement of Vision 2030, which is the country’s new development blueprint that aims to transform Kenya into a new industrialising middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizen by 2030. On the one hand, the peacebuilding, conflict management, and security strategy of the political pillar of Vision 2030 underscores the need for promoting peacebuilding and reconciliation, deepening policies and legal and institutional frameworks that promote order in society, as well as institutionalising dialogue between and among communities to promote harmony among racial, ethnic and other interest groups. On the other hand, the social pillar aims at establishing ‘a just and cohesive society that enjoys equitable social development in a clean and secure environment’.[6] Nyambura Githaiga observes that from a cursory glance, Kenya is not an immediate or apparent choice for a peacebuilding case study.[7] This can be attributed to the fact that peacebuilding studies primarily focus on nations that experienced highly destructive and horrific civil wars and require international intervention. However, Kenya has suffered intermittent and localised destructive conflicts, such as the 1992, 1997, and 2007-2008 election-based violence. Therefore, Kenya offers a peacebuilding case study which is not related to civil war, but part of a tactical response to repeated incidents of local destructive conflicts.[8]
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Conflict, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
40. The Role of Youths in Countering Violent Extremism in Northeast Nigeria
- Author:
- Angela Ajodo-Adebanjoko
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Northeast Nigeria is the epicentre of violent extremism in the country. Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states, in particular, record high incidences of extremism regularly. Extremists have been responsible for various killings and wanton destruction in the north and other parts of Nigeria. At the centre of the violence are youths, who constitute the majority of the members of these extremist groups. Young people are easier targets for recruitment by extremist groups because of peer pressure, drug use, gang involvement, prior delinquency, family member gang-involvement, membership in a cult, and the quest for adventure, among others. In spite of their involvement in violent extremism, it is recognised globally that the youth can be equal partners in its prevention. The youth should be considered a country’s asset, as the future of the country as well as having the potential to be leaders of today. However, a growing ‘youth bulge’ of unemployable young people trying to survive – and subject to recruitment by armed extremist groups – is problematic, and can even present a threat to prosperity and peace.
- Topic:
- Violent Extremism, Youth, Conflict, and Countering Violent Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria