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1791. Untangling Justice, Peace and Amnesties in the Central African Republic

Author:
Valerie Arnould
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The question of amnesties has come to the forefront once again as the Central African Republic (CAR) started a new round of African Union-mediated peace negotiations on 24 January 2019. While rebel groups demanded a general amnesty as a non-negotiable condition, the government maintained strong opposition to any new amnesty. The Khartoum peace agreement signed on 6 February 2019 did not uphold rebel groups’ demand for a general amnesty, but it leaves many grey areas concerning the question of amnesty and justice. Consequently, it is likely that the question of amnesties or pardons will resurface in the course of the agreement’s implementation. Drawing on broader discussions about the amnesty dilemma and examining the provisions of the 2019 Khartoum peace agreement, this policy brief sets out the key parameters which frame the amnesty question in the CAR.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Conflict, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Central African Republic

1792. Obama's Road to Cairo: The President’s Rhetorical Journey, 2008–2009

Author:
Nils Lukacs
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Ten years ago, President Barack Obama’s unprecedented address to the Muslim world from Cairo was hailed as a landmark in US–Middle Eastern relations and described by contemporary observers as a historical break in US foreign policy in the region. Yet it soon became clear that the president’s vision for a “new beginning based on mutual interest and mutual respect” would face many practical constraints. Analysing the thematic and rhetorical development of Obama’s speeches during the formative period between summer 2008 and 2009, as well as the public and academic perception of and reaction to these moments, the paper examines the underlying interests and motivations for the president’s foreign policy approach in the Middle East. It argues that despite the low priority given to foreign policy issues during the economic crisis occurring at the time, the key pillars of Obama’s ambitious vision for the Middle East were rooted in pronounced US interests as well as the president’s personal convictions, rather than opportunistic calculations. It thus counters retrospective post-2011 criticism which argues that Obama’s words were never meant to be put into practice. The study contributes to the establishment of a solid empirical and conceptual base for further research on the United States’ foreign policy in the Middle East under the Obama administration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1793. Bringing Regional Politics to the Study of Security Sector Reform: Army Reform in Sierra Leone and Iraq

Author:
Selman Almohamad
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that the scholarship on security sector reform (SSR) tends to neglect regional politics in the formulation of its concepts and policies, and that this neglect deprives the study of SSR of a valuable analytical level. It therefore uses comparative historical analysis and the model of regional conflict formations (RCFs) to examine army reforms in Sierra Leone and Iraq from a regional angle, thereby illustrating the explanatory potential that regional politics could bring to the study of SSR and its implementation. The paper also distinguishes between convergent and divergent regional formations, whereby the relationship between SSR outcomes and regional politics is conceived of as constitutive, entangled, and holistic.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Military Affairs, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Middle East, and Sierra Leone

1794. Sacred struggles: How Islam shapes politics in Mali

Author:
Andrew Lebovich
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Religious issues and leadership play an increasingly important role in the lives of many Malians, but international actors are ill-equipped to understand and analyse this. Mali’s religious leaders are heterogeneous and defy easy characterisation, often collaborating with one another on important issues, such as public morality and religion’s role in society, even when their practices diverge. European policymakers should not view religious activism in Mali purely through the lens of counter-terrorism, extremism, and radicalisation. Instead, they should perceive such activism as related to the demands Malians make of religious leaders, religious movements, and the government. Malian religious leaders are active on political issues and often interact with the government, but their most effective forms of engagement often come from their independence from the authorities. There is currently little chance of large-scale representation of Muslim leaders in elected office in Mali – although this could change in the future.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, Religion, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

1795. Big Sellers: Exploring the Scale and Risk of National Oil Company Sales

Author:
Alexander Malden and Joseph Williams
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
In many oil-producing countries, the national oil company (NOC) sells vast quantities of the state’s oil and gas. The sale of a state’s non-renewable natural resource endowment is often a revenue stream that can have a significant impact on a country’s national budget and the state’s ability to fulfil its national development priorities. It is important therefore that citizens are able to assess the performance of their NOCs, who they sell state assets to, under what terms they sell them and what they do with the resulting sales revenue. In this briefing the authors use data from NRGI’s new National Oil Company database to examine the governance and corruption risks posed by NOC’s oil sales activities. Using this newly compiled data including over $1.5 trillion in oil sales from 39 NOCs in 35 countries, they found that: The sale of oil is an economically significant activity for many countries. The oil, gas and product sales of 35 countries’ national oil companies (NOCs) to commodity traders and other buyers generated over $1.5 trillion in 2016, equaling 22 percent of these countries’ total government revenues. Most NOCs only pass on a small percentage of their oil sales revenue to government treasuries. NOCs from the 30 countries for which data are available transferred just 22 percent of their revenue to the country’s national treasury. This results in NOCs managing huge public revenues in environments that lack basic transparency, accountability and good governance practices. Seventy-nine percent of the identifiable oil sales, or $1.2 trillion, occurred in countries with “weak” or “poor” scores in the 2017 Resource Governance Index. While oil sales disclosure has improved in countries which are part of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), non-EITI countries generated over 90 percent of the identifiable NOC oil sales revenue, or $1.4 trillion. This briefing also presents case studies from the Republic of Congo, Nigeria and Ecuador of ways oil sales data, where available, has been used to scrutinize NOCs’ commercial performance and to hold them accountable for the revenue generated when selling the state’s oil.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Oil, and Business
Political Geography:
Africa, South America, Nigeria, Ecuador, and Democratic Republic of Congo

1796. Managing Expectations About Tanzania’s Uncertain Gas Revenues

Author:
Thomas Scurfield and David Mihalyi
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
With negotiations between the Tanzanian government and a consortium of companies for a game-changing liquefied natural gas (LNG) project continuing, a decision on whether the project will proceed is still some years away. In this brief, the authors update a previous analysis of the possible outcomes for the LNG project and its potential impact on public financial management. This update accounts for new information and changes in company planning.
Topic:
Sovereign Wealth Funds, Gas, Legislation, Commodities, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

1797. How Tanzania Can Secure a Good Deal for its Offshore Gas

Author:
Thomas Scurfield and David Manley
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The Tanzanian government and a consortium of companies are negotiating the regulatory terms for a game-changing liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. In this brief, the authors update a previous analysis of some of the key decisions that will be made in the negotiation and their potential impact on whether the LNG project proceeds and the levels of revenues that the project could generate for the government. This update accounts for new information and changes in company planning. There is a reasonable chance that foreign investment in the LNG project will not happen under current conditions. NRGI’s economic model and specific assumptions of the project suggest that a long-term LNG price of USD 11 per mmBtu is needed for investors to earn the return they usually require from LNG projects. Current forecasts by the IMF and World Bank are $7-8 per mmBtu. As the authors discuss in the brief, the chances of investment will shrink further if, during the negotiations, the government increases taxes and requires companies to share a greater portion of the gas with Tanzania’s home market. Government officials could wait and hope that conditions improve, and perhaps then impose stricter terms. However, this would delay the point at which the country would start generating benefits from the project. If officials want to accelerate development, without harming long-term gains for the country, they could: adopt a more progressive tax regime, avoid raising the share of gas to be sold to the home market, and establish a legal framework that both company managers and future generations of Tanzanians will trust.
Topic:
Gas, Regulation, Legislation, Tax Systems, Commodities, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

1798. The Civilian Casualty Tracking Analysis and Response Cell in the African Union Mission in Somalia: an emerging best practice for AU peace support operations?

Author:
Natasja Rupesinghe
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Civilian Casualty Tracking Analysis and Response Cell (CCTARC) tracks harm to civilians caused by the African Union Mission in Somalia’s (AMISOM) operations including death, injury, Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (SEA) and damage to property including livestock. The cell faces three main types of challenges: • Structural: the sectoral composition of AMISOM hinders effective exchange of information. • Operational: there is no fund to pay amends to victims. • Political: in the midst of competing strategic pressures, the CCTARC has not been adequately prioritised by the mission, African Union Commission, Troop Contributing Countries, and donors.
Topic:
International Organization, Regional Integration, Peace, Civilians, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

1799. Should I stay or should I go? Security considerations for members leaving al-Shabaab in Somalia

Author:
Ingvild Magnaes Gjelsvik
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Somali jihadi organization al-Shabaab, yet again featured in the news internationally when they attacked a business and hotel complex in Nairobi 15 January this year. This is not the first time the group carries out largescale attacks outside the Somali boarders. Other examples are the Garissa University College attack in 2015, the mass shooting at Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi in 2013 and the Kampala attacks in 2010. However, the majority of the atrocities committed by al-Shabaab take place in South Central Somalia. The Global Terrorism Index 2018 ranked Somalia as number 6 on its list of countries most impacted by terrorism in 2017.1 Al-Shabaab was behind the deadliest terrorist attack in 2017 worldwide, when a suicide bomber detonated an explosives-laden truck, killing 587 people in Mogadishu. Although al-Shabaab has had several military setbacks the last few years, the group still poses a significant threat to security and stability in the region. As the name al-Shabaab (‘the youth’) indicates, young people predominate in the group. This means that thousands of individuals spend parts of their youth in al- Shabaab. The question then arises: how to best assist the ones who want to leave the group?
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violence, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

1800. Gains and Gaps: Perceptions and Experiences of Gender in Africa

Author:
Carmen Alpin Lardies, Dominique Dryding, and Carolyn Logan
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Key findings Africans share at least some of the SDG ambitions to create more equal societies. Across 34 countries, substantial majorities support women’s right to run for political office (71%) and to own and inherit land (72%). They are less committed, however, to full economic equality: A much slimmer majority (53%) favour equal access to paying jobs for women, compared to 42% who believe men should have preference. And even a woman’s fundamental right to physical safety has less-than-universal support: More than one in four Africans (28%) – including 24% of women – still see wife-beating as justifiable. In Gabon and Liberia, seven in 10 citizens share this view. While most Africans say girls and boys now have equal access to education, significant gender gaps in educational achievement remain. Even among the youngest cohort, more women than men have no formal education, and more men than women have post-primary schooling. Large majorities also say that women have achieved equal access to jobs. But women are less likely to participate in the labour market (55% vs. 67% of men), and among those who do, women are more likely to be unemployed (52% vs. 39%). About one in eight women (12%) say they experienced discrimination based on their gender during the past year. One in three (32%) Liberian women report this experience. Women lag behind men in ownership of assets and are substantially less likely to have decision-making power over household resources. Women also trail men on indicators of digital access and connection. And the gap may be widening: Although women’s Internet use has doubled over the past five years, the gender gap in regular Internet use has increased. Africans are divided on the question of whether women are making progress; 49% say equal opportunities and treatment for women are better than a few years ago, but almost as many say they are the same (31%) or worse (19%). Nonetheless, almost two-thirds (64%) give their governments positive marks on promoting equal rights. There is, in short, some disconnect between popular satisfaction with equality performance and significant – and sometimes growing – gaps in actual achievement.
Topic:
Education, Gender Issues, Poverty, Inequality, Sustainable Development Goals, and Feminism
Political Geography:
Africa