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2. UN Peace Operations and Unconstitutional Changes of Government
- Author:
- Albert Trithart and Bitania Tadesse
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute (IPI)
- Abstract:
- There has been a significant increase in the number of unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs) since 2020. This presents a challenge for the United Nations, which has a presence in all countries that have recently experienced UCGs. In places like Afghanistan, Mali, and Sudan, it has also presented particular challenges to UN peace operations, which face the task of continuing to carry out their work amid a political crisis and using their good offices to facilitate a peaceful return to constitutional order. The report examines lessons from the experiences of the UN missions in Afghanistan (UNAMA), Mali (MINUSMA), and Sudan (UNITAMS) following recent UCGs. It provides a brief overview of recent trends in UCGs and how the responses of member states and international and regional organizations have impacted the responses of UN peace operations. It then analyzes how these UN peace operations approached political engagement with the de facto authorities. It concludes with several lessons: A principled approach at the highest levels of the UN: While some UCGs may bring to power leaders with greater political will to engage with the UN, they are almost always an indicator of growing political instability. The UN secretary-general, along with the African Union (AU) and other regional organizations, should thus continue adopting a principled approach to condemning UCGs. A pragmatic approach for UN peace operations: While the UN should take a principled approach to UCGs at the headquarters level, UN peace operations are well-positioned to take a more pragmatic approach to engaging with de facto authorities. They should take advantage of any openness displayed by the authorities to engage despite fears that doing so might legitimize them. Planning for UCGs and reviewing political strategies: Even if the UN is unable to prevent UCGs, it can better prepare for managing relationships with transitional authorities. It is therefore important to consider such scenarios in mission planning for potential and current operations and to conduct strategic assessments as soon as possible following UCGs to consider how to adapt and potentially identify a new direction for engagement. The challenge of remaining impartial: Fears of “legitimizing” de facto authorities stem from the assumption that those authorities are inherently illegitimate. Yet not all elected authorities have popular legitimacy, and not all authorities who come to power unconstitutionally lack it. UN missions thus need to factor public opinion into how they respond on the ground. The need for a “One UN” response: While there is unlikely to be a “one-size-fits-all” approach to engagement with de facto authorities across the entire UN presence in a country, coordination is needed to ensure UN personnel have a common understanding of core principles of engagement and a coherent approach to communication. The limits of UN engagement: Ultimately, the ability of UN missions to shape political transitions following UCGs tends to be constrained by factors outside their control. Regional organizations like the AU and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) tend to adopt a more principled response, raising questions about the extent to which UN missions should seek to link their engagement to that of these organizations. Missions also face competing pressures from member states supporting different political factions.
- Topic:
- Government, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Sudan, Mali, and Global Focus
3. Strategic Shift: Understanding Russia's Delisting of the Taliban
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Russia's relationship with the Taliban has undergone a significant transformation in recent times. Moscow now perceives the Taliban as a potential strategic partner, seeking to establish more open diplomatic relations—a remarkable departure from the hostile stance maintained since 2003 when Russia formally designated the movement as a terrorist organization. This gradual evolution has unfolded over recent years, culminating in a growing understanding and emerging cooperation between two former adversaries.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, Geopolitics, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, and Taliban
4. The Rise and Fall of Afghanistan’s Local Defense Forces
- Author:
- Arturo Munoz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- A counterinsurgency campaign is more likely to succeed when local people are willing to confront the insurgents and have the means to do so. Insurgencies usually seek to become the government and rural villagers must decide which side best provides protection and promotes their interests. Normally, there are not enough troops to patrol every community and provide security. General Stanley McChrystal addressed this issue in arguing for popular support. “The Afghan people will decide who wins this fight… We need to understand the people and see things through their eyes… We must get the people involved as active participants.” [1] Armed civilian defense forces (CDFs) are a proven counterinsurgency tool used successfully throughout the world. The most effective CDFs are organized in accordance with local culture and history, using local leaders. In Afghanistan, the traditional Pashtun arbakai village guards provided a strong base for creating local forces. Although the CDFs must be organized by the government, it should be done in a way that the villagers see this program as arising out of their own communities for their own goals. National governments, on the other hand, tend to consider arming villagers as a potential threat, or a source of instability, particularly if the CDFs are tribal or ethnically-based. Consequently, it is essential that the national authorities support a CDF program in good faith, otherwise, it will not be sustainable. CDFs are not meant to be independent entities that may devolve into private militias. The best means to achieve a productive balance of national and local interests is for the government to provide continuing support, especially in the form of military quick reaction forces (QRF) that respond immediately to help fend off attacks.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Counterinsurgency, and Armed Forces
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
5. After the Aid Axe: Charting a Path to Self-reliance in Afghanistan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? The U.S. and other major donors are cutting aid to Afghanistan. Sharp reductions in funding leave the Taliban with greater responsibility for the country’s economy, but the regime is struggling to address widespread poverty. The harshest consequences fall upon the most vulnerable, including women and girls. Why does it matter? It may not matter a lot to world powers, because the Taliban are maintaining stability. But the exit of humanitarian organisations – combined with sanctions and other punishments imposed on the Taliban – could further unsettle a region that historically exported terrorism. Economic stagnation risks forcing Afghans to migrate, including toward Europe. What should be done? U.S. aid cuts are not likely to be reversed, so European and regional states should protect their interests by slowing the drawdown and mitigating its effects on Afghan livelihoods. Donors should urgently accelerate talks with Taliban about economic recovery, allowing for exit strategies that preserve basic services.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Foreign Aid, Taliban, Economy, Donors, and Self-Reliance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
6. Debating American Primacy in the Middle East
- Author:
- Marc Lynch, Richard K. Hermann, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Dana El Kurd, and Elham Fakhro
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- In September 2024, POMEPS and the Mershon Center for International Studies at the Ohio State University convened a workshop with regional experts and international relations theorists to debate the nature of American primacy in the Middle East. The papers in this collection range widely over theoretical approaches and empirical examples to bring out the assumptions and implications of different perspectives. The discussions were shaped by the shadow of Israel’s war on Gaza, in all of its moral and strategic dimensions, with sharp disagreements over the extent to which this represented a fundamental break with or continuity with prior trajectories. We are delighted to present POMEPS Studies 54: Debating American Primacy in the Middle East and hope that it helps to reframe and sharpen the critical ongoing debates about US foreign policy, global order, and the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, Development, Hegemony, Authoritarianism, Liberalism, Engagement, Unipolarity, Multipolarity, International Order, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
7. Political Order in Post 2004 Afghanistan
- Author:
- Nighat Mehroze Chishti and Shabir Amhad Khan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- After the ouster of Taliban in 2001, the international community was faced with the daunting task of bringing stability and lasting peace to the war-torn Afghanistan. Constitution was one and perhaps the most important starting point in this regard and Bonn Agreement was the first step towards this goal. The constitution of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 2004 was drafted with considerable external involvement. Although this constitution has almost all features of a democratic constitution, its practical implementation is far from satisfactory. The 2014 Presidential elections were followed by the creation of a National Unity Government (NUG) with power sharing between the President and the Chief Executive Officer, a newly created post under the NUG Agreement, brokered with active intervention of the United States. This new set up was to be given constitutional cover through a Constitutional amendment within two years. But it never happened. Lastly, the results of 2019 elections were fiercely challenged by the runner up candidate Mr. Abdullah Abdullah, who declared a parallel government and took the oath as President of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in Mazar Sharif, the same day as did Dr. Ashraf Ghani, the winning candidate at Kabul. In 2021, after the retake over of Afghanistan, the Taliban declared that the “Islamic Emirate” has been reinstated thus discarding the set up provided under the Constitution of 2004(Rahimi, 2022). This research attempts to answer the main question as to why this Constitution could not achieve the desired results i.e. stability and prosperity in Afghanistan? Pragmatism as research philosophy being followed, allowing the researcher to use both subjective and objective interpretation to do content analysis.
- Topic:
- Elections, Taliban, Constitution, Domestic Politics, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
8. U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Implications for Pakistan's Strategy
- Author:
- Abdul Ghafoor, Mirwais Kasi, and Umbreen Javaid
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its political-economic consequences on Pakistan in a changing regional environment. It underscores the U.S.-Pakistan-Afghanistan relations after 9/11 which started in the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, in operation enduring freedom on allegations that Taliban harbored Osama bin Laden. His subsequent demise in the year 2011 in Abbottabad, Pakistan, aggravated regional intricacies. Presidents of the United States Barack Obama and Donald Trump progressively sought troop withdrawal, which eventually saw the last withdrawal, August 21, 2021. The study examines the strategic and political-economic reactions of Pakistan especially its strategic depth seeking in Afghanistan. It also evaluates the potential of Pakistan to stabilize and contribute towards the political economy of Afghanistan. The methodology of the study is qualitative content analysis, with the help of NVivo-14 software. Under the Rational Choice Theory, the study examines the decision-making processes of states such as Pakistan to make strategic choices through cost-benefit analysis to navigate the region and enjoy the best avenue to foreign policy choices.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Economy, Military, and Rational Choice Theory
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America
9. Foreign Policy of China: Pursuing the Resources in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Naqibullah Mashwani
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- China, a major power playing the peripheral diplomacy to bring developing countries to a table of dialogues, negotiations and international conferences to express their interests and form new relations.Thus, it has always been friendly and supportive to Afghanistan; providing humanitarian aid, investing in infrastructure, and extracting natural resources. However, China spent more on the minerals of Afghanistan during the new acting government than in the previous government. China was not deeply involved economically with the former government though they had signed some significant agreements.This was also one of the reasons China did not resist and took part in the 20 years long war in Afghanistan, instead, China supported, hosted and mediated Taliban. After the fall of Kabul and the return of the Taliban, China turned its policy and filled the vacuum, gave them de facto recognition and backed them in terms of security and economic development. This paper deeply explores the foreign policy of China towards Afghanistan and how they invested in extracting natural resources, infrastructure and tightened major economic agreements with the Taliban and contributed to the internal security and stability.China, a pioneer in oil extraction in Afghanistan has signed significant agreements and contracts with the interim government of Afghanistan for mineral extraction and refinery development.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Natural Resources, and Taliban
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, and Asia
10. Open Markets: Documenting Arms Availability in Afghanistan under the Taliban
- Author:
- Manon Blancafort, Emile LeBrun, and Andrea Edoardo Varisco
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- More than three years after the Taliban’s takeover and its seizure of the previous regime’s weapons stockpiles, the de facto authorities have taken steps to exert control over arms and ammunition in the hands of rank-and-file fighters, civilians, and private businesses. Yet despite the recent legal restrictions and their enforcement efforts, informal arms commerce and trafficking continue, and involves both older weapons as well as materiel likely sourced from the equipment that had been delivered to the former Afghan National Defence and Security Forces. Open Markets: Documenting Arms Availability in Afghanistan under the Taliban—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Afghanistan project—reviews field investigations conducted from 2022 to 2024 into the availability and prices of small arms, light weapons, accessories, and ammunition at informal markets in the Afghanistan–Pakistan border areas, alongside qualitative research into arms proliferation dynamics.
- Topic:
- Taliban, Weapons, Arms Trade, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia