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2. UN Peace Operations and Unconstitutional Changes of Government
- Author:
- Albert Trithart and Bitania Tadesse
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute (IPI)
- Abstract:
- There has been a significant increase in the number of unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs) since 2020. This presents a challenge for the United Nations, which has a presence in all countries that have recently experienced UCGs. In places like Afghanistan, Mali, and Sudan, it has also presented particular challenges to UN peace operations, which face the task of continuing to carry out their work amid a political crisis and using their good offices to facilitate a peaceful return to constitutional order. The report examines lessons from the experiences of the UN missions in Afghanistan (UNAMA), Mali (MINUSMA), and Sudan (UNITAMS) following recent UCGs. It provides a brief overview of recent trends in UCGs and how the responses of member states and international and regional organizations have impacted the responses of UN peace operations. It then analyzes how these UN peace operations approached political engagement with the de facto authorities. It concludes with several lessons: A principled approach at the highest levels of the UN: While some UCGs may bring to power leaders with greater political will to engage with the UN, they are almost always an indicator of growing political instability. The UN secretary-general, along with the African Union (AU) and other regional organizations, should thus continue adopting a principled approach to condemning UCGs. A pragmatic approach for UN peace operations: While the UN should take a principled approach to UCGs at the headquarters level, UN peace operations are well-positioned to take a more pragmatic approach to engaging with de facto authorities. They should take advantage of any openness displayed by the authorities to engage despite fears that doing so might legitimize them. Planning for UCGs and reviewing political strategies: Even if the UN is unable to prevent UCGs, it can better prepare for managing relationships with transitional authorities. It is therefore important to consider such scenarios in mission planning for potential and current operations and to conduct strategic assessments as soon as possible following UCGs to consider how to adapt and potentially identify a new direction for engagement. The challenge of remaining impartial: Fears of “legitimizing” de facto authorities stem from the assumption that those authorities are inherently illegitimate. Yet not all elected authorities have popular legitimacy, and not all authorities who come to power unconstitutionally lack it. UN missions thus need to factor public opinion into how they respond on the ground. The need for a “One UN” response: While there is unlikely to be a “one-size-fits-all” approach to engagement with de facto authorities across the entire UN presence in a country, coordination is needed to ensure UN personnel have a common understanding of core principles of engagement and a coherent approach to communication. The limits of UN engagement: Ultimately, the ability of UN missions to shape political transitions following UCGs tends to be constrained by factors outside their control. Regional organizations like the AU and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) tend to adopt a more principled response, raising questions about the extent to which UN missions should seek to link their engagement to that of these organizations. Missions also face competing pressures from member states supporting different political factions.
- Topic:
- Government, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Sudan, Mali, and Global Focus
3. Strategic Shift: Understanding Russia's Delisting of the Taliban
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Russia's relationship with the Taliban has undergone a significant transformation in recent times. Moscow now perceives the Taliban as a potential strategic partner, seeking to establish more open diplomatic relations—a remarkable departure from the hostile stance maintained since 2003 when Russia formally designated the movement as a terrorist organization. This gradual evolution has unfolded over recent years, culminating in a growing understanding and emerging cooperation between two former adversaries.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, Geopolitics, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, and Taliban
4. The Rise and Fall of Afghanistan’s Local Defense Forces
- Author:
- Arturo Munoz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- A counterinsurgency campaign is more likely to succeed when local people are willing to confront the insurgents and have the means to do so. Insurgencies usually seek to become the government and rural villagers must decide which side best provides protection and promotes their interests. Normally, there are not enough troops to patrol every community and provide security. General Stanley McChrystal addressed this issue in arguing for popular support. “The Afghan people will decide who wins this fight… We need to understand the people and see things through their eyes… We must get the people involved as active participants.” [1] Armed civilian defense forces (CDFs) are a proven counterinsurgency tool used successfully throughout the world. The most effective CDFs are organized in accordance with local culture and history, using local leaders. In Afghanistan, the traditional Pashtun arbakai village guards provided a strong base for creating local forces. Although the CDFs must be organized by the government, it should be done in a way that the villagers see this program as arising out of their own communities for their own goals. National governments, on the other hand, tend to consider arming villagers as a potential threat, or a source of instability, particularly if the CDFs are tribal or ethnically-based. Consequently, it is essential that the national authorities support a CDF program in good faith, otherwise, it will not be sustainable. CDFs are not meant to be independent entities that may devolve into private militias. The best means to achieve a productive balance of national and local interests is for the government to provide continuing support, especially in the form of military quick reaction forces (QRF) that respond immediately to help fend off attacks.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Counterinsurgency, and Armed Forces
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
5. After the Aid Axe: Charting a Path to Self-reliance in Afghanistan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? The U.S. and other major donors are cutting aid to Afghanistan. Sharp reductions in funding leave the Taliban with greater responsibility for the country’s economy, but the regime is struggling to address widespread poverty. The harshest consequences fall upon the most vulnerable, including women and girls. Why does it matter? It may not matter a lot to world powers, because the Taliban are maintaining stability. But the exit of humanitarian organisations – combined with sanctions and other punishments imposed on the Taliban – could further unsettle a region that historically exported terrorism. Economic stagnation risks forcing Afghans to migrate, including toward Europe. What should be done? U.S. aid cuts are not likely to be reversed, so European and regional states should protect their interests by slowing the drawdown and mitigating its effects on Afghan livelihoods. Donors should urgently accelerate talks with Taliban about economic recovery, allowing for exit strategies that preserve basic services.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Foreign Aid, Taliban, Economy, Donors, and Self-Reliance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
6. Open Markets: Documenting Arms Availability in Afghanistan under the Taliban
- Author:
- Manon Blancafort, Emile LeBrun, and Andrea Edoardo Varisco
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- More than three years after the Taliban’s takeover and its seizure of the previous regime’s weapons stockpiles, the de facto authorities have taken steps to exert control over arms and ammunition in the hands of rank-and-file fighters, civilians, and private businesses. Yet despite the recent legal restrictions and their enforcement efforts, informal arms commerce and trafficking continue, and involves both older weapons as well as materiel likely sourced from the equipment that had been delivered to the former Afghan National Defence and Security Forces. Open Markets: Documenting Arms Availability in Afghanistan under the Taliban—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Afghanistan project—reviews field investigations conducted from 2022 to 2024 into the availability and prices of small arms, light weapons, accessories, and ammunition at informal markets in the Afghanistan–Pakistan border areas, alongside qualitative research into arms proliferation dynamics.
- Topic:
- Taliban, Weapons, Arms Trade, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
7. Entry points for climate finance and peacebuilding in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Dima Reda
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- This report examines the current climate finance landscape in Afghanistan, analysing funding trends before and after 2021 and identifying entry points for action under current political constraints. It explores how political constraints and institutional gaps have reshaped access, delivery, and co-financing dynamics, while identifying emerging models for indirect implementation through UN agencies, NGOs, and regional mechanisms. Comparative case studies from Haiti, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo illustrate how other fragile states have mobilised climate finance amidst instability.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Climate Finance, Domestic Politics, NGOs, Donors, Instability, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, Haiti, Somalia, and Democratic Republic of the Congo
8. Between humanitarian imperatives and political legitimacy: a critical analysis of United Nations engagements with the Afghan Taliban (2021–2025)
- Author:
- Abdul Wasi Popalzay and Bawa Singh
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- This study analyzes the United Nations’ engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan between 2021 and 2025, examining how they navigated the tension between humanitarian imperatives and concerns about political legitimacy. The UN's efforts mitigated suffering amid economic collapse and poverty, achieving successes in disaster relief and maintaining the participation of female aid workers through a gender-sensitive approach. However, the Taliban’s human rights violations, including restrictive gender edicts, arbitrary detentions and repressive morality laws, jeopardise these gains and risk delegitimising the regime, which is bolstered by increased revenues despite sanctions. Sanctions have failed to drive policy change due to being weakened by regional actors such as China and Russia. Critiques from civil society highlight the UN’s limited inclusion of Afghan women and the lack of accountability mechanisms, and urge the establishment of an independent investigative body. While counterterrorism cooperation has yielded security benefits, donor fragmentation and funding shortfalls undermine the humanitarian impact.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Taliban, Humanitarian Crisis, and Political Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
9. What Future Awaits Pakistani-Afghan Relations?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The ruling Taliban in Afghanistan rejected, on May 12, 2024, a scheduled visit from a Pakistani military delegation to the Afghan city of Kandahar, the headquarters of Taliban leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada. The visit aimed to discuss border management and the Pakistani branch of the Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan, TTP). The cancellation of the visit followed Islamabad's drone and missile attacks on Paktika province in southeastern Afghanistan. Earlier, on March 18, 2024, Pakistani forces carried out airstrikes on the Afghan provinces of Khost and Paktika in response to a deadly attack by the Tehreek-e-Taliban's security forces in North Waziristan. This indicates the ongoing tension marring relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in August 2021.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Taliban, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia
10. Pakistan’s Evolving Militant Landscape: State Responses and Policy options
- Author:
- Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Muhammad Amir Rana, and Safdar Sial
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
- Abstract:
- At a time when a major shift is happening in the militant landscape of the country and a political transition is taking place, it is imperative to reevaluate the evolving positions and strategies of not only the militant groups but also the newly formed governments. Against this backdrop, this report seeks to delve into the emerging dynamics of Pakistan's militant landscape and security besides analysing state capacities and responses, along with potential policy shifts post-transition. While much of the research and analyses in Pakistan since Taliban takeover of Kabul has predominantly focused on aspects such as the Taliban regime's governance, Pak-Afghan bilateral affairs, and regional geopolitics, there remains a glaring absence of credible and comprehensive investigations into the broader repercussions of the evolving Afghan scenario on Pakistan's security landscape. Despite periodic headlines on the Pakistani government's negotiations with the proscribed TTP, there has been a dearth of empirical research exploring the overall fallout of Afghanistan's changing dynamics on Pakistan's security. In light of this context, PIPS undertook a firsthand, empirical investigation into the expanding terrorism landscape in the country, scrutinizing the formation of new alliances and networks among terrorist groups, mapping the geographical spread of insecurity and violence, and assessing their ramifications for both domestic and regional security paradigms, among other things. The insights gleaned from this investigation were subsequently utilized to formulate context-specific policy recommendations on how to manage or prevent the negative fallout from evolving Afghanistan situation on Pakistan and the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Minorities, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia