Political Geography: Afghanistan - CIAO Search Results

301. R2P Monitor, Issue 47, 15 September 2019

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 47 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Mali and Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela.
Topic:: Human Rights, United Nations, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso

302. R2P Monitor, Issue 46, 15 July 2019

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 46 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Mali and Burkina Faso, Sudan, Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: Genocide, Human Rights, International Law, United Nations, Ethnic Cleansing, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso

303. R2P Monitor, Issue 45, 15 May 2019

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 45 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Nigeria, Burundi, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Mali, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Human Rights, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

304. R2P Monitor, Issue 44, 15 March 2019

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 44 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, and Global Focus

305. R2P Monitor, Issue 43, 15 January 2019

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 43 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central African Republic, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Nicaragua, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Syria, Nigeria, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

306. Weary Warriors: Power Knowledge and the Invisible Wounds of Soldiers

Author:: Pamela Moss and Michael J. Prince
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Berghahn Books
Abstract:: As seen in military documents, medical journals, novels, films, television shows, and memoirs, soldiers’ invisible wounds are not innate cracks in individual psyches that break under the stress of war. Instead, the generation of weary warriors is caught up in wider social and political networks and institutions—families, activist groups, government bureaucracies, welfare state programs—mediated through a military hierarchy, psychiatry rooted in mind-body sciences, and various cultural constructs of masculinity. This book offers a history of military psychiatry from the American Civil War to the latest Afghanistan conflict. The authors trace the effects of power and knowledge in relation to the emotional and psychological trauma that shapes soldiers’ bodies, minds, and souls, developing an extensive account of the emergence, diagnosis, and treatment of soldiers’ invisible wounds.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Psychology, Trauma, Masculinity, and PTSD
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Vietnam

307. Exiting Afghanistan: Ending America's Longest War

Author:: Benjamin H. Friedman
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The war in Afghanistan—now America’s longest at nearly 18 years—quickly achieved its initial aims: (1) to destroy the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization and (2) to punish the Taliban government that gave it haven. However, Washington extended the mission to a long and futile effort of building up the Afghan state to defeat the subsequent Taliban insurgency.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Asia

308. U.S. Policy Priorities for Afghanistan: A Conversation with U.S. Representative Mike Waltz

Author:: Michael Waltz and Marvin G. Weinbaum
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted U.S. Representative (FL) Michael Waltz to address U.S. policy priorities for Afghanistan. In conversation with Dr. Marvin Weinbaum, director of Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies at MEI, Rep. Waltz will discuss the many complicated challenges facing Afghanistan, key regional challenges to consider, and policy prescriptions given the fallout of the deal with the Taliban.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Taliban, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, North America, and United States of America

309. Peace Talks on Afghanistan. A Last Opportunity for Peace? / Conversaciones de paz sobre Afganis-tán ¿Una última oportunidad para la paz?

Author:: Javier Ruiz Arévalo
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: When it has been more than 17 years since the fall of the Taliban regime, the Afghan conflict is far from being over. The country continues to experience a kind of resilient civil war in which neither the legitimate government of Kabul, supported by a large part of the international community, nor the Taliban have managed to impose themselves in a clear and lasting manner. To date, it seems that none of the contenders considers it feasible that the conflict will end with a military victory. This reality has ended up addressing all the direct actors (the government of Kabul, the US and the Taliban) and the indirect actors (NATO, Russia, Pakistan, Iran...) to seek a negotiated end. The task is not easy given the difficulty to find an acceptable definition for everyone on the Afghanistan that should arise from the agreement. Reconciling the Islamic Republic that some advocate, with the Democratic State designed by the current Constitution is not an easy task. Perhaps for this reason, more than a decade of talks has not been enough to illuminate a peace agreement acceptable to all. At first, one might think that nothing has changed and that the talks currently undegoing are hopelessly doomed to failure, as they face the same problem as all previous attempts: the impossibility of reconciling the interests of the Afghan government, the Taliban and the US and its allies. However, it seems that the ongoing talks have been addressed by the US and the Taliban with a different spirit. The fatigue after so many years of conflict and the evidence, eventually assumed, of the impossibility of a military victory seems to have made a dent in both, making them see that there are only two possible options: accept an imperfect agreement or be doomed to an endless war.
Topic:: Taliban, Political stability, Conflict, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

310. How and Why the Myanmar Government Should Publish Petroleum and Mining Contracts

Author:: Sebastian Sahla, Hosana Chay, and Robert Pitman
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Contract disclosure is a growing global norm. The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) board agreed to require all member governments to disclose the contracts they sign with oil, gas and mining companies beginning in January 2021. Around the world governments, companies and civil society are increasingly advocating for disclosure. In Myanmar, progress has been extremely slow. Despite civil society activists and several major investors supporting reforms, the government has not disclosed any petroleum or mining contracts so far. With new licenses expected to be issued in the petroleum, minerals and gemstone sectors, the Myanmar government should act now to keep pace with a global trend.
Topic:: Corruption, Natural Resources, Regulation, Negotiation, Legislation, Transparency, and Contracts
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Mongolia, Asia, Sierra Leone, Mexico, Myanmar, and Cameroon

311. The Helmand Food Zone: The Illusion of Success

Author:: David Mansfield
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: This study documents how the Helmand Food Zone was developed, its origins and architects, as well as the different actors involved in the implementation and the subsequent challenges of delivery. Initially presented as a drug control project, the Helmand Food Zone came to be accredited for supporting stabilisation and governance in the Helmand province between 2008 and 2012. Driven by political demands rather than evidence, the program became a flagship in Helmand, and lauded as a success, despite evidence to the contrary. The study builds on in-depth fieldwork and high-resolution satellite imagery collected before, during and after the implementation of the Helmand Food Zone, as well as interviews with some of the main protagonists in the donor community. In total, 4,122 household interviews took place with farmers over an 11-year period in either all or some of the 28 research sites in Helmand province, in areas both north and south of the Boghra canal. The latest body of fieldwork was conducted in spring 2018 and consisted of 310 interviews in the same research sites, supplemented with a further 52 interviews with women who resided in former desert areas.
Topic:: Food, Governance, Women, and Drugs
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

312. Nomad-settler conflict in Afghanistan today

Author:: Antonio Giustozzi
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: Conflict between nomads and settlers appeared repeatedly in the media in Afghanistan and elsewhere after 2001, but it has rarely been studied systematically. In order to fill this gap, AREU launched a three-pronged research project on Natural Resources Management (NRM) in December 2016 supported by the EU. The purpose of this paper is primarily to inform and update policymaking on matters related to nomad-settler conflict in Afghanistan, as well as to lay the foundations for future research efforts. It provides a first, and necessarily mapped, assessment of the conflict and of resolution efforts as they stood in 2017—2019. The study looks at the several drivers of nomad-settler conflict, including the opacity around the Pastures Law, the government weakness, or demographic pressure over a scarcer irrigated land. It then looks at past conflict resolution efforts and their limited impact, before formulating recommendations around hybrid solutions where the state would play only a limited role. It also discusses possible options for future, improved resolution efforts.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Governance, Conflict, Public Policy, Land, and Nomad
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

313. Finishing Strong: Seeking a Proper Exit from Afghanistan

Author:: Daniel F. Runde and Earl Anthony Wayne
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: A precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan would endanger many of the social, political, economic, and health gains that have been achieved in Afghanistan over nearly 20 years. Afghanistan has a myriad of problems, including corruption, violence, and poverty, but these challenges often overshadow improvements in mortality rates, media and cellular access, tax collection, and women and girls’ education and political freedoms, among others. To prevent these gains from dissipating, the international community should encourage the Afghan government to meet certain governance benchmarks and continue on its path to self-reliance. The United States and its international allies should also consider a gradual withdrawal of troops, funding for the Afghan security forces, and economic assistance, based on a timeline that reflects facts on the ground and progress on peace negotiations.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Military Strategy, State Building, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

314. Preventing Catastrophe in Afghanistan

Author:: Richard Olson and Daniel F. Runde
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: This brief presents a summary of key historical events in Afghanistan since 1989 and outlines a possible worst-case scenario following a U.S. and allied withdrawal from the country. The United States, Afghanistan, and its allies must work together in search for greater Afghan self-reliance, security, and stability in order to avoid a catastrophic scenario. Only then will Afghanistan be able to free itself of foreign presences and embark on its own journey to prosperity and self-reliance.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Governance, Hegemony, Military Affairs, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

315. Tell Me How This Ends: Military Advice, Strategic Goals, and the “Forever War” in Afghanistan

Author:: Mark F. Cancian
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: When the United States invaded Afghanistan after the attacks on September 11, 2001, and then overthrew the Taliban regime, senior military officers were not predicting that the United States would be militarily involved 18 years later. Yet, after expending nearly $800 billion and suffering over 2,400 killed, the United States is still there, having achieved at best a stalemate. This CSIS report concludes that the mission in Afghanistan expanded from a limited focus on counterterrorism to a broad nation-building effort without discussion about the implications for the duration and intensity of the military campaign. This expansion occurred without considering the history of Afghanistan, the Soviet experience, and the decades-long effort required in successful nation-building efforts. The report makes a series of recommendations: improving the dialogue between senior military and civilian officials about desired goals/end states and the implied intensity/duration of a military campaign; continuing the development of military strategists; revising military doctrine publications to include discussion of choices about goals/end states; and taking more seriously the history and experience of others.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

316. Creating a Real Peace in Afghanistan

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: It has been a long, grim war since the first U.S. troops appeared in Afghanistan on October 7, 2001. The fighting has now lasted close to 18 years, and the conflict has become one of the worst managed wars in American history. The effort to reinvent Afghan government as a functioning democracy has so far been an unstable nightmare mixing corruption and uncertain central leadership with power brokers, ex-warlords, and divided leadership. Efforts at economic growth and reform have fallen far short of their goals, vast sums have been wasted or lost through corruption, and the current Afghan economy now survives on the basis of outside aid and domestic narcotics exports. Major security efforts have at best produced an uncertain stalemate and one where the Afghan government increasingly seems to be losing control in the countryside in order to maintain its hold on major population centers. Three different Presidents have made major errors in overall strategy. President Bush gave priority to Iraq at the cost of giving the Afghan war proper attention and providing adequate forces to deal with the return of the Taliban. President Obama first authorized a surge — which wasted major resources in Helmand — and then called for a premature U.S. withdrawal based on totally unrealistic goals for Afghan force development. President Trump has adopted a strategy which has no clear political or economic element, and is unclear as to whether the U.S. is willing to keep supporting Afghan government military efforts or is giving priority to peace more as part of an effort to withdraw U.S. forces than to achieve a lasting and meaningful peace settlement. This report addresses the options for staying in Afghanistan, for reaching a cosmetic or real form of peace, and for some form of unilateral withdrawal. It describes the challenges in each area: the current stalemate in conflict and the debate over Afghan Government versus Taliban control, the critical problems in Afghan governance, the weaknesses in the Afghan economy, and the many remaining challenges in creating Afghan forces that can stand on their own. It addresses the challenges in cutting or removing U.S. land and air forces. Finally, it addresses critical problems in assessing and costing the current level of U.S. involvement in the war, and in estimating the future cost of supporting a peace or continuing the fighting.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Public Opinion, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, Asia, Vietnam, North America, and United States of America

317. ‘Peace’ in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: In fairness, peace almost always consists of a pause in the fighting that becomes a prelude to war. Taking modern Europe as an example, the Napoleonic wars were punctuated by failed peace attempts, and then led to the rise of Germany and a whole new series of wars with Austria, Denmark, and France. The repressive peace settlements following Europe’s upheavals in 1848 set the stage for decades of new rounds of conflict and revolution. World War I led to World War II, and then led to the Cold War and now to the Ukraine. Nevertheless, the current U.S. efforts to support peace negotiations in Afghanistan and the Middle East seem remarkably weak even by historical standards. In the case of Afghanistan, “peace” is being negotiated without even the same cosmetic level of local government participation that occurred in Vietnam. It is being negotiated when there is no political stability to build upon, and no apparent prospect that the coming election can bring real unity or effective leadership.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Gulf Nations

318. The State of the Fighting in the Afghan War in Mid-2019

Author:: Anthony H Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The Afghan War has entered a critical period in which the U.S. is actively seeking a peace settlement with the Taliban, and doing so in spite of the fact that it is negotiating without the full participation of the Afghan government. Peace is a highly uncertain option. There are no official descriptions of the terms of the peace that the Administration is now seeking to negotiate, but media reports indicate that it may be considering a full withdrawal within a year of a ceasefire, and other reports indicate that it is considering a 50% cut in U.S. military personnel even if a peace is not negotiated. As of mid-August 2019, the Taliban has continued to reject any formal peace negotiations with the Afghan government, and has steadily stepped up its military activity and acts of violence while it negotiates with the United States. Terrorist groups like ISIS-K add to the threat, as do the many splits within the Afghani government and political structure. The Taliban has not encouraged further ceasefires, or shown any clear willingness to accept a lasting peace on any terms but its own. It may well see peace negotiations as a means of negotiating a withdrawal of U.S. and other allied forces and a prelude to a peace that it could exploit to win control of Afghanistan. At the same time, major uncertainties also exist regarding continuing support for the war. Some press reports indicate the Administration is seeking a 50% reduction in active U.S. military manpower in country by the end of 2019 or some point in mid-2020 regardless of whether a peace settlement is reached. Some members of Congress have called for major U.S. force cuts and shown only a limited willingness to keep up U.S. support of the Afghan government and forces if peace negotiations do not succeed. Much depends on current trends in the war, and the extent to which the Afghan Government or the Taliban are winning control and influence over the country. Much also depends on the degree to which the Afghan government forces can stand on their own if a peace negotiation leads to the withdrawal of U.S. and Resolute support forces, or if the U.S. makes major further force cuts.
Topic:: Development, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

319. The Civil Challenges to Peace in Afghanistan

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The Afghan War has entered a critical period in which the U.S. is actively seeking a peace settlement with the Taliban, and doing so in spite of the fact that it is negotiating without the full participation of the Afghan government. Its options now consist of finding some form of peace, leaving the country without any form of victory or security, or fighting indefinitely in a country whose central government has no near or mid-term capability to either defeat its opponents or survive without massive military and civil aid. Peace is a highly uncertain option. There are no official descriptions of the terms of the peace that the Administration is now seeking to negotiate, but media reports indicate that it may be considering a full withdrawal of its military support within one to two years of a ceasefire, and other reports indicate that it is considering a 50% cut in U.S. military personnel even if a peace is not negotiated. As of late-August 2019, the Taliban continued to reject any formal peace negotiations with the Afghan government, and its military activity and acts of violence while it negotiated with the United States. Terrorist groups like ISIS-K add to the threat, as do the many splits within the Afghani government and political structure. The Taliban has not encouraged further ceasefires, or shown any clear willingness to accept a lasting peace on any terms but its own. It may well see peace negotiations as a means of negotiating a withdrawal of U.S. and other allied forces and a prelude to a peace that it could exploit to win control of Afghanistan. At the same time, the other options are no better. They either mean leaving without a peace and the near certain collapse of the Afghan government, or continuing the war indefinitely with no clear timeframe for victory or the emergence of an Afghan government that can fight on its own or act as an effective civil government. Much of the analysis of these three options has focused on the possible terms of the peace, the immediate progress in the fighting, and/or the coming Afghan election and Afghanistan’s immediate political problems. These are all important issues, but they do not address the basic problems in Afghan security forces that will limit its military capabilities indefinitely into the future, or the scale of the civil problems in Afghanistan that have given it failed governance and made it the equivalent of a failed state, and that will shape its future in actually implementing any peace or in attempting to continue the war.
Topic:: Civil Society, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

320. Operation Zarb-e-Azb, IDPs, and the Life in Camps

Author:: Sajad Rasool and Zahid Anwar
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Review of Human Rights
Institution:: Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:: This article focuses on internal displacement of the tribal people from North Waziristan Agency in the wake of military operation called Zarb-e-Azb. It takes Abharam Maslow’s model of hierarch of needs for analyzing the life of IDPs in camps. We argue that the institutions responsible for taking care of the camps tried their best to cope with the situation nevertheless, keeping in view Maslow’s model of hierarchy of needs, the IDPs faced difficulties to overcome their biological and psychological trauma.
Topic:: Human Rights, Displacement, and Trauma
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

321. THE LESSON OF THE AFGHANISTAN PAPERS

Author:: Navin Bapat
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: The Washington Post’s publication of the Afghanistan Papers reveals that, although the official line was that the war was turning in favor of the US and its allies in Kabul, policymakers have long been aware that the situation was bleak, deteriorating, and unlikely to produce anything resembling a “victory.” Following 9/11, the US identified failed states as a key national security risk, in that these environments enabled terrorists, rebels, warlords, and other non-state actors to plot and plan operations against the US and the international community. Given that Afghanistan seemed to represent the prototypical weak state, the solution was obvious: Afghanistan needed to be transformed into a strong state that would resist non-state actors—particularly terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda. But in trying to achieve this lofty goal, the US has lost thousands of soldiers and contractors and spent several trillion dollars—and the costs will likely continue rising. The Afghans themselves have suffered even more, with over 100,000 deaths since 9/11. Despite all of this loss—and the open acknowledgment that the strategy is failing—there is little appetite among US policymakers for reversing course.
Topic:: War, Military Affairs, Afghanistan, Military Intervention, War on Terror, and Military Contractors
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

322. The U.S. in Afghanistan: From Military-Political Euphoria to the Dilemma of Troop Withdrawal

Author:: M. Konarovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: The seizure of power in Afghanistan by the Mujahiddin (“war- riors of faith”), in 1992, opened a new but certainly not peaceful chapter in the modern history of the country. The new bosses in Kabul, who were linked at one point only by the common interest of overthrowing the pro- communist regime, were now not only unable to consolidate power, but could not get around an almost open split in their leadership. The result- ing wobbly system of rotating leadership was bound to be unable to sat- isfy everyone’s wants. The inability of the Mujahiddin to achieve consensus led to the col- lapse of their hopes to unify even in the face of a direct challenge from the Taliban in the early 1990s. In 1996, in the wake of the popular disappointment with the rule of these “warriors of faith” (with whom the Taliban were connected not only by an ideological umbilical cord, but by some active participants), the Taliban seized Kabul and usurped power with direct support from Pakistan. They pushed supporters of President Burhanuddin Rabbani out to northern regions along the borders with the former Soviet Central Asian republics.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Taliban, Leadership, Secularism, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

323. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Economics of Defense

Author:: Patrick Callaway, James Lockhart, Nikolas Gardner, Rebecca Jensen, Ian Brown, J. Craig Stone, Lauren Mackenzie, and Kristin Post
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: During the past two decades, the U.S. government infrastructure has ground to a halt for a variety of reasons, particularly due to deficit reductions, military spending, health care, and overall party-line budget disagreements, but even more recently on border security and immigration. Regardless of party politics and the daily administrative drama in the White House, how does one of the wealthiest countries in the world prepare for the impact of making war and defending peace within these economic and political constraints? Authors for this issue of MCU Journal address the economics of defense and how those costs impact nations. Aside from the economic costs the United States bears for its defense, the articles in the Spring issue of MCU Journal will demonstrate there are other costs and unique limitations faced by America and other nation-states. For example, smaller nations such as Oman must rely on technologically advanced allies for their defense support. Long-term political costs also may apply to these nations, as James Lockhart’s article on the Central Intelligence Agency’s intervention in Chilean politics discusses. There are also other ways to wage “war” that are discussed in this issue; for example, looking to the past, President Thomas Jefferson attempted to wage a trade war against Great Britain and France to maintain U.S. trade neutrality and, looking to the present and future, governments must address the real costs of cyberwar. Finally, we must consider the political and diplomatic costs associated with U.S. servicemembers and their work in foreign states, but also the relationship repair they must rely on to keep the peace.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Counterinsurgency, Culture, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, Cybersecurity, Weapons, Economy, Military Spending, History, Coup, Trade, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and Augusto Pinochet
Political Geography:: Britain, Afghanistan, China, South Asia, Canada, Asia, South America, North America, Chile, Oman, and United States of America

324. Afghanistan Ahead of the Next Turbulent Presidential Election

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The U.S. cancellation of peace talks with the Taliban means that the presidential election in Afghanistan planned for 28 September will take place in an environment of an escalating civil war. The most important challenge for the authorities is to ensure the security and credibility of the electoral process. Although the elections carry the risk of deepening the internal political crisis, they can also strengthen the position of the new president in possible government negotiations with the Taliban, which would give the country a chance to launch an intra-Afghan peace process. Western partners can support this approach by confirming their support for the new authorities and intensifying military pressure on the Taliban.
Topic:: Security, Government, Elections, Taliban, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

325. Making Sanctions Smarter: Safeguarding Humanitarian Action

Author:: Alice Debarre
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: In recent decades, sanctions have increasingly been used as a foreign policy tool. The UN Security Council has imposed a total of fourteen sanctions regimes alongside those imposed autonomously by the EU, the US, and other countries. Despite efforts to institute more targeted sanctions regimes, these regimes continue to impede or prevent the provision of humanitarian assistance and protection. This policy paper focuses on the impact of sanctions regimes in four countries: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Syria, Afghanistan, and Somalia. It aims to assist the Security Council, relevant UN organs, UN member states, humanitarian actors, and other stakeholders in ensuring that humanitarian activities are safeguarded in contexts in which sanctions regimes apply. While there are no straightforward solutions, the paper offers several ways forward: Including language that safeguards humanitarian activities in sanctions regimes; Raising awareness and promoting multi-stakeholder dialogue; Conducting better, more systematic monitoring of and reporting on the impact of sanctions on humanitarian activities; Developing more and improved guidance on the scope of sanctions regimes; and Improving risk management and risk sharing. This paper is accompanied by an issue brief that provides further detail on the types of impact sanctions can have on humanitarian action.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Sanctions, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, North Korea, Syria, Somalia, United States of America, and European Union

326. Australia-Afghanistan relations: Reflections on a half-century

Author:: William Maley
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: It is now fifty years since diplomatic relations were formally established between the Commonwealth of Australia and the Kingdom of Afghanistan. Superficially, the two countries might seem to have little in common. Nonetheless, there is more to unite Australians and Afghans than one might think at first glance. Even before the Australian colonies federated, Afghans made their way to Australia to provide transport by camel in Australia’s inland. By the time of the 2016 census 46,800 Afghans were living in Australia. And since 2001, more than 25,000 members of the Australian Defence Force have served in Afghanistan. Recent years have brought Australia and Afghanistan far closer to each other than ever before in their history. Professor William Maley explores some of the key dimensions of the development of this relationship. Since 2001, the state-to-state relationship has developed additional dimensions – diplomatic, military, developmental, and humanitarian – which have been augmented by significant people-to-people ties despite all the difficulties that surround travel between the two countries. Yet for all this, what ultimately binds the two countries together is that Australia has a strong interest in seeing the transition in Afghanistan that was inaugurated in 2001 – a complex mixture of statebuilding, institutional development, economic change, civil society activism, and enhancement of human rights and freedoms – continue down the broad path that was laid out at that time. A failure in Afghanistan is likely to involve serious adverse strategic consequences for Australia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, History, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

327. Prospects of a Settlement with the Afghan Taliban: Exit, peace and governance from the Taliban perspective

Author:: Mona Kanwal Sheikh and Amina Khan
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: While the Taliban continue to display strength through lethal attacks in Afghanistan, some important steps have also been taken to find a settlement. Interviews with Taliban leaders, commanders and foot soldiers highlight an unprecedented momentum, calling for the international community to identify ways to support the Afghan peace and reconciliation process. Afghanistan continues to face harsh challenges. Even though the Taliban remain united under their current leadership, significant internal developments have taken place, including defections and divisions, but also their changing approach towards the future of Afghanistan. The Taliban interviewed for this report display a high degree of pragmatism towards their original vision of an emirate, and the report questions whether radical opposition to democracy truly defines their identity. Instead it appears that their primary raison d’être is the liberation of Afghanistan, and that they do not reject the idea of elections. They are less concerned with sectarian interpretations or resistance to democracy than to ending the ’US occupation’ and the practice of decisions being ’taken by the occupiers’. Positive developments in the recent past, including overtures by the Afghan government and a willingness on the part of both the US and the Taliban to engage directly with each other, indicate moderate progress towards a negotiated settlement. The report, based on interviews and secondary sources, will be launched at a seminar hosted by DIIS on January 30, 2019. It is authored by senior researcher Mona Kanwal Sheikh and Amina Khan, a PhD scholar focusing on the Afghan Taliban.
Topic:: Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, Taliban, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

328. Maneuvering: Why Iran is Cozying up to Taliban?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iran is currently making unremitting efforts to further its relations with the Afghan Taliban. Although these attempts are not new, as there have always been unannounced channels of communication between the two parties, Iran is keen to uncover the presence of these channels and its efforts to foster relations with the movement. This was evident in the recent statements of Iranian officials such as its Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security Ali Shamkhani. This is, without a doubt, inseparable from the Iranian attempts to pave the Afghan arena for the return of elements of the Fatimid militia, and perhaps prepare in advance for a possible and sudden US withdrawal from the country, like the recent US decision to withdraw from Syria.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Taliban, Conflict, and Militias
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

329. The Foreign Policy Decision Making Approaches and Their Applications Case Study: Bush, Obama and Trump’s Decision Making towards Afghanistan and the Region

Author:: Sharifullah Dorani
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Students of International Relations (IR) and Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) have been confused as to what factors influence foreign policy. FPA focuses mostly on human decision-makers. However, generally speaking, IR theories, realism in particular, instead have focused mostly on the nation-state as the level of analysis to explain foreign policy or foreign policy behaviour. Both fields have found shortcomings within each other. The author of this article, however, applied a number of decision-making approaches from FPA to inform his study of George W. Bush, Barrack Obama and Donald Trump Administrations’ decision-making towards Afghanistan and the broader region and found the discipline of FPA to be extremely helpful. Based on the personal experience of the author, this article attempts to provide a comprehensive introduction to FPA with the aim that students of IR and FPA learn answers to the following questions: What is FPA? How is FPA different from IR? How can decision- making approaches from FPA be employed to inform a foreign policy choice? What (and how) methods can be used to access primary and secondary sources? What are the weaknesses of FPA and is it applicable as an analytical framework outside of the United States (US) or the West (in a country like Afghanistan)? The main objective is to make it easier for students to learn how to apply approaches from FPA as analytical frameworks to analyse a foreign policy decision.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

330. Involuntary migration, inequality, and integration: National and subnational influences

Author:: Rachel M. Gisselquist
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Across the world, we observe different experiences in terms of inequality between migrant and ‘host-country’ populations. What factors contribute to such variation? What policies and programmes facilitate ‘better’ economic integration? This paper, and the broader collection of studies that it frames, speaks to these questions through focused comparative consideration of two migrant populations (Vietnamese and Afghan) in four Western countries (Canada, Germany, the UK, and the US). It pays particular attention to involuntary migrants who fled conflict in their home regions beginning in the 1970s. The paper builds in particular on the literature on segmented assimilation theory, exploring new linkages with work on horizontal inequality, to highlight the role of five key sets of factors in such variation: governmental policies and institutions; labour market reception; existing co-ethnic communities; human capital and socioeconomic characteristics; and social cohesion or ‘groupness’.
Topic:: Migration, Inequality, Displacement, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United Kingdom, Europe, South Asia, Canada, Vietnam, Germany, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

331. Violence against Women in Afghanistan’s 2018 Parliamentary Elections

Author:: Noah Coburn and Mohammad Hassan Wafaey
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: One of the most significant barriers to female participation in political processes is the threat of violence, in all of its forms and manifestations. There has been in Afghanistan a history of violent reactions to the promotion of women’s rights and their involvement in public politics. In response to this continued challenge, AREU and UN Women partnered to conduct research that would identify various forms and patterns of violence against women in elections (VAWE) and how that violence undermines their capacity to participate in the electoral process in an equal manner. The study aims to better understand VAWE, in order to provide concrete recommendations to respond to and limit such violence in the future.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Gender Based Violence, Feminism, and Participation
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

332. Nomad Sedentarisation Processes in Afghanistan and Their Impact on Conflict

Author:: Antonio Giustozzi
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: The sedentarisation of nomads is often seen by policy makers as the way to more fully integrate nomads into Afghan society, make services available to them and eliminate nomad-settler conflict. In fact, many nomads have already settled, sometimes as a result of government-sponsored schemes, but much more often as a result of spontaneous processes. This “watching brief” focuses on the issue of if and how nomad sedentarisation impacts nomad-settler conflict, in order to establish whether sedentarisation could be a viable policy for reducing nomad-settler conflict. It does so by looking at four case studies of nomad settlements: two state sponsored cases and two spontaneous cases. The paper first discusses pre-2001 experiences in sedentarisation, then outlines post-2001 sedentarisation processes before reviewing the four case studies of nomad settlements, which were all affected by conflicts with neighbouring communities. In total, for this “watching brief” we interviewed 16 settled nomads (four per settlement, all community elders and all males) during spring 2019. We deliberately focused exclusively on nomads (ignoring neighbouring settled communities) because we wanted to get a perspective from within the community about the dynamics of sedentarisation. We started from the assumption that settler communities in surrounding areas would have had rather negative views about the nomad settlements.
Topic:: Conflict, Local, Community, and Nomad
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

333. The Sun Cannot be Hidden by Two fingers: Illicit Drugs and the Discussions on a Political Settlement in Afghanistan

Author:: David Mansfield
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: An issue largely ignored in the current debates on peace and reconciliation is that of illegal drugs production. Drawing on the authors long term research in Afghanistan the paper analyses the role that illicit drugs and the monies they generate play in the conflict. It should not be forgotten that illicit drugs production and trade is currently the largest single economic sector in Afghanistan. Opium poppy is the country’s most valuable cash crop worth US$863 million4 and employs more people than any other industry in Afghanistan, over 500,000 Full Time Equivalent. The crop occupied an estimated 263,000 hectares of land in 2018; three times more land than it did in 2000 when the Taliban imposed an outright ban. Conservative estimates suggest that opiates alone made up more than 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product in 2018 and that over US$ 40 million in taxes were earned by different armed groups along the value-chain. Given the economic and political importance of the illicit drugs economy in Afghanistan it is unwise to assume the problem away or look to resolve it with wishful and simplistic policy responses - or as the Afghan proverb says the sun cannot be hidden by two fingers.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Conflict, Peace, Drugs, Trade, Illegal Trade, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

334. The Meaning of Setbacks in Iraq and Afghanistan

Author:: Carter Malkasian
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: From 2011 to 2017, similar processes played out in Iraq and Afghanistan that are deeply significant yet understudied. Between 2011 and 2014, after much effort and some success, the United States drew down its military forces in both countries. Hopes were high that the Iraqi and the Afghan government could take over. Their armies and police were vastly superior in numbers, equipment, and training to those of their adversaries. Nevertheless, the Iraqi and Afghan states both came to the brink of collapse. Gains that had come at high cost and sacrifice for the United States unraveled. Terrorist threats re-emerged. The United States re-entered the conflicts. So far, it has not fully withdrawn. Why these events came to pass has not yet been fully studied. This article explores what happened and the implications for U.S. strategy.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Military Intervention, Civil-Military Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

335. Pathologies of Centralized State-Building

Author:: Jennifer Murtazashvili
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: The international community, led by the United States, has invested trillions of dollars in state-building efforts during the past two decades. Yet despite this commitment of substantial resources, conflict and violence remain a challenge in fragile states. It therefore seems especially important to consider the reasons why state-building has not lived up to its expectations. One plausible explanation for the failure of state-building in Afghanistan is that the government remains extremely centralized in all critical dimensions, including the power of the executive, subnational governance, judicial institutions, public budgeting and finance, and the national security forces. Of these, only the Afghan National Army has implemented meaningful reforms. In the other areas, almost no reform has occurred compared to the institutional status quo before 2001. A consequence is that most Afghans continue to experience the same type of centralized, predatory state that they endured prior to 2001. Paradoxically, by resurrecting the centralized, predatory state, the stabilization effort continues to give rise to an antigovernment insurgency across the country.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Governance, and State Building
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

336. Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations: Exploring the Way Forward

Author:: Qibla Ayaz, Aziz Ahmed Khan, Abdullah Dayo, Mohammad Hamid Khan, Muhammad Amir Rana, Marvi Sirmed, Rahimullah Yousafzai, and Omar Zakhilwal
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: This brief summarizes the findings of a national conference on PakistanAfghanistan relations with the purpose of exploring the way forward. The two countries suffer from trust deficit, making futile all attempts to rest the ties. Yet, the ties are of import and can be strengthened. Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS) is a major development; to effectively take it forward, a proper implementation plan should be charted. As prospects of reconciliation with Taliban are explored, one of the new channels that is being explored is engaging Islamic scholars from both sides. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s offer of granting citizenship to Afghan refugees can be explored by taking domestic considerations into account and finding a middle way out which treats with Afghans on humanitarian ground. The two countries can also cooperate on security issues against common threats such as ISIS.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, Refugees, Islamic State, and Conference
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

337. Iraq After ISIS: The Other Half of Victory Dealing with the Civil Dimension

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The United States, its allies, and international organizations are just beginning to come to grips with the civil dimensions of "failed state" wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, the Sudans, Syria, and Yemen. In each case, it is clear that the civil dimension of the war will ultimately be as important as the military one. Any meaningful form of "victory" requires far more than defeating the current extremist threat in military terms, and reaching some temporary compromise between the major factions that divide the country. The current insurgent and other security threats exist largely because of the deep divisions within the state, the past and current failures of the government to deal with such internal divisions, and the chronic failure to meet the economic, security, and social needs of much of the nation's population. In practical terms, these failures make a given host government, other contending factions, and competing outside powers as much of a threat to each nation’s stability and future as Islamic extremists and other hostile forces. Regardless of the scale of any defeat of extremists, the other internal tensions and divisions with each country also threaten to make any such “victory” a prelude to new forms of civil war, and/or an enduring failure to cope with security, stability, recovery, and development. Any real form of victory requires a different approach to stability operations and civil-military affairs. In each case, the country the U.S. is seeking to aid failed to make the necessary economic progress and reforms to meet the needs of its people – and sharply growing population – long before the fighting began. The growth of these problems over a period of decades helped trigger the sectarian, ethnic, and other divisions that made such states vulnerable to extremism and civil conflict, and made it impossible for the government to respond effectively to crises and wars.
Topic:: Security, War, Fragile/Failed State, ISIS, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sundan

338. Terrorism: U.S. Strategy and the Trends in Its “Wars” on Terrorism

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The United States has now been at war in Afghanistan for some seventeen years and been fighting another major war in Iraq for fifteen years. It has been active in Somalia far longer and has spread its operations to deal with terrorist or extremist threats in a wide range of conflicts in North and Sub-Saharan in Africa, South Asia, and South East Asia. In case after case, the U.S. has moved far beyond counterterrorism to counterinsurgency, and from the temporary deployment of small anti-terrorism forces to a near "permanent" military presence. The line between counterterrorism and counterinsurgency has become so blurred that there is no significant difference. The national academic consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) has just issued new trend data on terrorism that are updated through the end of 2017. When they are combined with other major sources of data on terrorism, they provide the ability to trace the history of U.S. "wars" against terrorism in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. They show the results of America's "long wars" of attrition where it is increasingly unclear that the United States has a strategy to terminate them, or has the capability to end them in ways that create a stable and peaceful state that can survive if the United State should leave. The resulting graphics and maps are provided in the full text of the report on which this summary is based, and which is available on the CSIS website here. This summary both summarizes how the trends in such data reveal the patterns in terrorism and impact on U.S. strategy. The key conclusions, and an index to these graphics, are provided in this summary.
Topic:: Imperialism, National Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, United States, South Asia, Asia, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa

339. Human Cost of the Post-9/11 Wars: Lethality and the Need for Transparency

Author:: Neta C. Crawford
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: All told, between 480,000 and 507,000 people have been killed in the United States’ post-9/11 wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. This tally of the counts and estimates of direct deaths caused by war violence does not include the more than 500,000 deaths from the war in Syria, raging since 2011, which the US joined in August 2014.
Topic:: War, Conflict, 9/11, War on Terror, Statistics, Transparency, and Iraq War
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, and United States of America

340. United States Budgetary Costs of the Post-9/11 Wars Through FY2019: $5.9 Trillion Spent and Obligated

Author:: Neta C. Crawford
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: The United States has appropriated and is obligated to spend an estimated $5.9 trillion (in current dollars) on the war on terror through Fiscal Year 2019, including direct war and war-related spending and obligations for future spending on post9/11 war veterans. This number differs substantially from the Pentagon’s estimates of the costs of the post-9/11 wars because it includes not only war appropriations made to the Department of Defense – spending in the war zones of Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and in other places the government designates as sites of “overseas contingency operations,” – but also includes spending across the federal government that is a consequence of these wars. Specifically, this is war-related spending by the Department of State, past and obligated spending for war veterans’ care, interest on the debt incurred to pay for the wars, and the prevention of and response to terrorism by the Department of Homeland Security. If the US continues on its current path, war spending will continue to grow.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Government, Military Affairs, Budget, Military Spending, War on Terror, and Veterans
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

341. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 10, Issue 07: Countering Terrorism and Preventing Violent Extremism

Author:: Anushka D. Kapahi, Gabrielle Tañada, Farhan Zahid, and Shane Britten
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: This issue of CTTA observes three critical case studies of political violence and terrorism that highlight either countering terrorism or preventing violent extremism (PVE) policies as the key takeaways. Research has highlighted that improved and innovative counter-terrorism and PVE policies can mitigate the long-term effects of terrorism and extremism, and possibly prevent conflicts from occurring in the first place. Through the case study of the Philippines, this issue discusses identity-driven conflicts and the need for ‘hearts and minds’ driven approaches by the state for conflict resolution. In order to ensure long-term peace, the state should look into culturally-sensitive approaches that don’t alienate aggrieved groups and instead attempt to mainstream and integrate them into the broader society. Further, the issue delves into the influence and ideology of radical ideologues in the case of the Afghanistan -Pakistan region. The article highlights a national counter-narrative campaign can play a role in decreasing and countering the reverence and following of religious figures preaching intolerance and extremism. Lastly, the issue observes intelligence failures in terrorist attacks and recommends an improvement in related counter-terrorism policies through increased focus on cognitive analysis. This would allow states and related security agencies to respond better to emerging terrorist threats and prevent violent attacks from occurring. In the first article, Anushka D. Kapahi and Gabrielle Tañada analyse the interplay of history, religion and identity to explain the Bangsamoro people’s uprising in Mindanao, Southern Philippines. The authors argue that despite legal advancements, the Bangsamoro people’s demand for autonomy and self-governance still exists due to a lack of recognition of their cultural identity. This has obstructed conflict resolution, attempts at assimilation and overall development within the region, necessitating a culturally-sensitive approach that gives due consideration to locals’ identity for long-term peace. Farhan Zahid sheds light on the impact of influential Pakistani militant ideologue Mufti Nizam-ud-Din Shamzai’s worldview — in the form of fatwas, speeches, sermons and books — on various militant groups in the Af-Pak region. Shamzai is a celebrated scholar among Af-Pak militants and they continue to draw inspiration from his writings and teachings even after his assassination in 2004. However, Shamzai’s personality and works remain under -researched. The author recommends that formulating a national counter narrative against violent extremism while understanding the impact of his ideology on Af-Pak militant discourse is essential for policymakers in Pakistan. In the last article, Shane Britten reviews the importance of cognitive analytical techniques for accurate intelligence analysis in counterterrorism. He contends that lack of training in the art of cognitive analysis has been a major factor in various counter-terrorism intelligence failures in recent years. These intelligence failures are not of information-collection, but reflect the inability to adequately analyse the collected information. The author suggests that by improving the cognitive capabilities of intelligence analysts involved in counterterrorism through training and capacity building, the percentage of intelligence failures could be minimised.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia

342. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 10, Issue 03: Emergence of Post-‘Islamic State’ (IS) Threat Environment

Author:: C. Nna-Emeka Okereke, Syed Huzaifah Bin Othman Alkaff, and Abdul Basit
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The continuing terrorist attacks in the West and different parts of Asia and Africa underscore the resilience, adaptability and regenerative nature of the prevailing global terrorist threat. With these attacks, the contours of the post-IS threat environment are now becoming increasing clear. It entails four major issues: a decentralised threat landscape, the challenge of returning foreign fighters from Iraq and Syria, the emergence of new IS hotspots in the Philippines, Afghanistan and parts of Africa, and cyber radicalisation. This requires continued vigilance, collaborative responses and sharing of best practices between security institutions and intelligentsia. In the context of continuing terrorist threat, the massacre of over 500 civilians in Eastern Ghouta in Syria by the Bashar Al-Assad regime is concerning for several reasons. The brutal use of violence will continue to fuel jihadist recruitment, strengthen the extremist narrative and create space for IS-linked and other militant groups to survive. Whether it is Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan, the absence of conflict stabilisation has undermined counter-terrorism efforts in these war-torn territories. The imagery of civilian killings in Ghouta plays right into the hands of groups like Al-Qaeda and IS as these groups continue to be the by-products of anarchy and lawlessness in active conflict zones. Against this backdrop, the first article by Abdul Basit explores the urban footprint of pro-IS jihadists in South Asia. The author observes that the dissemination of IS ideology of Jihadi-Takfiri-Salafism has galvanised a new generation of South Asia jihadists, which is narrowly sectarian, brutally violent and tech savvy. This pro-IS generation of jihadists uses various social media platforms for propaganda dissemination, recruitment and operational planning. In recent months, they have moved from open-end to encrypted social media applications. This development coupled with their segregated cell-formations makes their detection challenging. In conclusion, the author suggests that in addition to robust social media monitoring capabilities and operational preparedness, various South Asia governments would also require robust counter-ideological responses to overcome and neutralise IS appeal in this generation of South Asia jihadists. Highlighting the threat from social media, Syed Huzaifah Bin Othman Alkaff examines the trajectory of online radicalisation of a young Filipino girl, whose quest to atone herself from a ‘sinful’ past life exposed her to IS-recruiters online. The recruiters encouraged her to undertake the so-called ‘hijra’, after which she emerged as the head of IS’ female wing in Marawi (Mindanao, Phillipines). Syed highlights the need for a proactive approach by the governments and mainstream Islamic scholars to impart correct interpretations of key Islamic concepts such as jihad, caliphate, hijra and takfir to Muslim youth. It is argued that these efforts will circumvent the exploitation of these concepts by violent-extremist groups. Departing from the discussion on Islamist terrorist groups, this issue carries an article by C. Nna-Emeka Okereke focusing on the dynamics of the current indigenous Anglophone (English-speaking population) crisis in Cameroon and the escalating violence between the community in the northwest and southwest and the government. The Anglophone community is resentful towards what is perceived to be their marginalisation and the erosion of their unique identity as a result of various government actions relating to issues such as the creation of a centralised state from a two-state federation, and status of the English language. A segment of the Anglophone community has resorted to violence to address its grievances, conducting arson attacks and bombings targeting schools, government and security personnel. The instability has resulted in the displacement of thousands of refugees into Nigeria and poses security challenges to the country as it goes into the Presidential elections, and to the entire Lake Chad Basin.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, Middle East, East Asia, Philippines, North Africa, Syria, and Asia-Pacific

343. January 2018 Issue

Author:: Fernando Reinares, Carola Garcia-Calvo, Paul Cruickshank, Michael Knights, Matther Levitt, Matthew Dupee, and Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: During the course of nine hours in August 2017, a terrorist cell carried out two vehicle-ramming attacks in Catalonia, with the first striking pedestrians on the famous Las Ramblas promenade in the heart of Barcelona. In our cover article, Fernando Reinares and Carola García-Calvo draw on judicial documents and interviews with investigators to provide the inside story of the worst terrorist attack in Spain since the 2004 Madrid bombings. Their account reveals the 10-man cell of ‘homegrown’ radicals, led by an extremist Moroccan cleric in the town of Ripoll, had initially planned to carry out vehicle bomb attacks in Barcelona and possibly Paris, but changed and accelerated their plans after they accidentally blew up their bomb factory where they were manufacturing TATP. While it is still not clear whether the cell had any contact with the Islamic State, the authors reveal that the network behind the November 2015 Paris attacks was also plotting to launch a similar attack in Barcelona that year. This month’s interview feature is with Nicholas Rasmussen, who retired as the head of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) at the end of 2017. Michael Knights and Matthew Levitt draw on interviews with Bahraini security officials to outline how Shi`a militant cells in the country have evolved from easily detectible groups of amateurs to small cells of attackers with overseas training and combat experience and the ability to mount effective IED attacks. Matthew DuPée looks at the threat to the Taliban from other insurgent groups. Anouar Boukhars examines the potential jihadi windfall from the militarization of Tunisia’s border region with Libya. This issue is the first to be launched on the Combating Terrorism Center’s redesigned website, which is also being unveiled. The new, easy-to-search, interactive interface showcases the important scholarship contained in CTC Sentinel over the past decade, as well as all the research published by the Combating Terrorism Center since its founding almost 15 years ago.
Topic:: Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Violence, Shia, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Libya, Spain, North Africa, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Barcelona

344. April 2018 Issue

Author:: Nicholas Tallant, Jesse Morton, Mitchell D. Silber, Scott Atran, Hoshang Waziri, Angel Gomez, Hammad Sheikh, Lucia Lopez-Rodriguez, Charles Rogan, Richard Davis, Amira Jadoon, Nakissa Jahanbani, Charmaine Willis, and Nafees Hamid
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Between 2006 and 2012, two men working on opposite sides of the struggle between global jihadis and the United States faced off in New York City. Jesse Morton was the founder of Revolution Muslim, a group that proselytized—online and on New York City streets—on behalf of al-Qa`ida. Mitchell Silber led efforts to track the terrorist threat facing the city as the director of intelligence analysis for the NYPD. After serving a prison sentence for terrorist activity, Morton now works to counter violent extremism. In our feature article, they tell the inside story of the rise of Revolution Muslim and how the NYPD, by using undercover officers and other methods, put the most dangerous homegrown jihadi support group to emerge on U.S. soil since 9/11 out of business. As the Islamic State morphs into a ‘virtual caliphate,’ their case study provides lessons for current and future counterterrorism investigations. Five years ago this month, terror came to Boston, and Boston stood strong. Nicholas Tallant interviews William Weinreb and Harold Shaw on the lessons learned. Weinreb stepped down as Acting United States Attorney for the District of Massachusetts in January 2018. He was the lead prosecutor of the 2015 investigation and trial of Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev. Shaw has served as the Special Agent in Charge of the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Boston Division since 2015. Between July and October 2017, a team of researchers conducted field interviews with young Sunni Arab men coming out from under Islamic State rule in the Mosul area. The resulting study by Scott Atran, Hoshang Waziri, Ángel Gómez, Hammad Sheikh, Lucía López-Rodríguez, Charles Rogan, and Richard Davis found that “the Islamic State may have lost its ‘caliphate,’ but not necessarily the allegiance of supporters of both a Sunni Arab homeland and governance by sharia law.” Amira Jadoon, Nakissa Jahanbani, and Charmaine Willis examine the evolving rivalry between the Islamic State and other jihadi groups in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Nafees Hamid profiles Junaid Hussain, a hacker from the United Kingdom, who until his death in August 2015 was the Islamic State’s most prolific English-language social media propagandist and terror ‘cybercoach.’
Topic:: Terrorism, Law Enforcement, Counter-terrorism, Radicalization, Islamic State, Police, and NYPD
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

345. June/July 2018 Issue

Author:: Kirsten E. Schulze, Brian Dodwell, Dakota Foster, Daniel Milton, David Sterman, and Robin Simcox
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: This summer marks the end of an era for us. Lieutenant Colonel Bryan Price, the Combating Terrorism Center’s longest-serving director, is retiring after 20 years of service in the Army, the last six at the helm of the CTC. During that time, he was a tireless champion for the CTC and its staff and cemented its status as one of the leading research institutions in the terrorism studies field. In a conversation with Brian Dodwell, who is taking over as director, LTC Price reflects on his service at the CTC and the essential need for rigorous research to understand the evolving threat landscape. There is concern that Islamic State-linked terror is on the rise in Southeast Asia. On Sunday, May 13, 2018, three churches in Surabaya, Indonesia, were targeted by suicide bombers comprising one single family of six. The following day, a family of five rode two motorbikes to the entrance of the city’s police headquarters where they blew themselves up. The attacks saw the confluence of several trends in jihadi terrorist plotting—an increased reliance on family networks and an increased embrace of women and children in combat roles. In our cover article, Kirsten Schulze outlines the evolving threat from pro-Islamic State militants in Southeast Asia’s most populous country. Dakota Foster and Daniel Milton build on the the CTC’s previous analysis on the personnel records of just over 4,100 Islamic State foreign fighters to focus on what the records reveal about the smaller subset of 267 children. David Sterman also analyzes the Islamic State’s personnel records to compare and contrast the profile of recruits with previous experience in Libya and Afghanistan. Robin Simcox documents an alleged terrorist conspiracy by an all-female cell guided by an Islamic State cybercoach to plot attacks in the Paris area in 2016.
Topic:: Terrorism, Children, Counter-terrorism, Women, Islamic State, Jihad, Foreign Fighters, and Child Soldiers
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Europe, South Asia, Indonesia, France, Libya, North Africa, and Southeast Asia

346. November 2018 Issue

Author:: Ali Soufan, Paul Cruickshank, Nuno Tiago Pinto, Damon Mehl, and Michael Munoz
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In our cover article, Ali Soufan profiles Major General Qassem Soleimani, the long-serving head of Iran’s Quds Force who the U.S. government has accused, among other things, of support for terrorism and involvement in a 2011 plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States. Soufan outlines how Soleimani has masterminded Tehran’s efforts to project its power across the Middle East using a unique strategy of blending militant and state power, built in part on the model of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Soufan argues that with nationalist sentiment on the rise in Iran in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the ongoing regional tussle with Saudi Arabia, Soleimani’s popularity would make him the natural front-runner if Iran chooses to adopt a military presidency. Our interview is with Patrick Skinner who during the decade after 9/11 worked in counterterrorism for the CIA in Afghanistan and Iraq. Last year, he began working as a police officer in his hometown of Savannah, Georgia, in an effort to make a difference closer to home. Skinner reflects on how lessons learned from his time as a CIA case officer and as a local police officer could apply to counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategy and tactics overseas. Drawing on thousands of pages of judicial documents and investigative files, Nuno Pinto outlines the alleged key role played by two Portugal-based extremists in a transnational Islamic State network whose alleged attack plans were thwarted by arrests in Strasbourg and Marseille in November 2016. The case raises concerns that European countries in which security services are less geared up to confront terrorist activity are being used as logistical hubs by jihadi terrorists. In the wake of the Islamic State’s deadly attack on Western tourists in Tajikistan in July 2018, Damon Mehl examines the threat the group poses to the country. With the Islamic State having lost almost all of its territory in Syria and Iraq, Michael Munoz looks at how the group’s propaganda efforts may evolve in the future.
Topic:: Intelligence, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Propaganda, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Tajikistan, France, and Portugal

347. Contentious Politics in Afghanistan and the U.S. Efforts for Peace (2008-2018)

Author:: Rana Eijaz Ahmad
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Afghanistan has been a battlefield for big powers for last four decades. In 1979, Russia invaded in Afghanistan and the U.S. fought a proxy war in the region with the help of Pakistan. Russian withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan under Geneva accord in 1988 caused disintegration of the former Soviet Union in 1991. The Taliban government emerged in Afghanistan in 1994 and a regime of contentious politics started in Afghanistan. It allegedly caused terrorism at local as well as international level. The U.S. alienated itself from the region after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. In September 2001, Osama Bin Laden purportedly attacked the U.S. security hub Pentagon and economic hub World Trade Centre. America retaliated with cruise missile and invaded in Afghanistan in 2001. After the U.S. claim for killing Osama in May 2011 in Abbotabad, Pakistan, decided to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan in 2014. The U.S. wishes to sustain peace in the region after its withdrawal. It intends to ensure all the conflicting parties that they should come on table for a peaceful bargaining. The U.S. is rehabilitating Afghanistan with her allies. Afghanistan was destructed during the war on terror. This paper is based on the theory of contentious politics introduced by three American sociologists, Sidney Tarrow, Charles Tilly, and Doug McAdam. The tipping point theory is also used in the backdrop of 9/11 incident. It is explained with primary as well as secondary sources.
Topic:: Politics, History, Afghanistan, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

348. Emergence of the Islamic State and Challenges for Af-Pak Region

Author:: Sohail Ahmad and Mahwish Bakht
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The Islamic State was hoping for a smooth establishment and extraordinary gains in the Khorasan region. The presence of US forces in Afghanistan and Operation Zarb-eAzb by the strong military of Pakistan did not allow it to happen. The Taliban could be a strong ally of IS in the region but clashes between the two had diminished the chances of its establishment and success in the Khorasan region. Both organizations have declared ‘Jihad’ against each other to enjoy monopoly status in the region, especially in Afghanistan. Afghan government even supported Taliban to fight against IS. Though IS has claimed many deadly attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan it has not gained the momentum and support it was expecting. The nature of this study is qualitative.
Topic:: Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Conflict, and Khorasan Group
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

349. Pakistan’s Religious Elite and Afghanistan: Antecedents

Author:: Qamar Fatima
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Religious commonalities between Pakistan and Afghanistan are inevitable part of their relationships. So there is a need to understand the ramifications of dynamics of religious elite approach of Pakistan in order to comprehend the true nature of PakAfghan relations. Pakistan right after its creation faced a dilemma about that what role should Islam play in the Pakistani state. The Modernists were not ready to reconcile with the idea of theocracy. The conservatives with contrary position over role of religion believed that only Sharia Law should govern it. This debate stiffened with the passage of time and finally religion was followed as a consistent policy of state for defining Pakistan’s identity as Islamic state. Eventually the role of religion in Pakistan’s political system gave birth to a unique power pole, that is the priest class, the ‘Ulema’ in the capacity of leaders of religious political parties. Who, however, despite being in an ideological state, failed to secure a significant political representation in elected bodies and take an influential and meaningful share in the strata of ruling elite. However, these religious elite have always had relevance with Afghan affairs. Specifically, their role became more visible and relevancy increased owing to their proactive role during the Afghan Jihad against Soviet Union, and later during the Taliban Rule. The central question of research is why religious elite in Pakistan have always shown a proactive stance towards Afghan affairs. So this study would be analyzing the role and relevancy of Pakistan's religious elite with Pakistan – Afghanistan Relations. This research would also substantiate the current scenario of Pakistan Afghan Relations with special reference to religious elite approach.
Topic:: Religion, Taliban, Jihad, and Elites
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

350. Diagnosing the First Democratic Regime in Afghanistan: Human Rights Perspective

Author:: Satnam Singh Deol and Amandeep Kaur Sandhu
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The constant presence of undemocratic regimes, insurgencies and political instability in Afghanistan has continuously resulted into the miserable status of civil and political human rights. Furthermore, the heterogeneous nature of Afghan society and economic under development have deprived the people of social, cultural and economic rights. In 2004, democratic government had been established in Afghanistan under the presidentship of Hamid Karzai. Very obviously, the people at domestic level as well as the international community expected from the democratically elected regime to take concrete initiatives for the promotion and protection of human rights. The study observes that the pioneer democratically elected government of Afghanistan had taken all constitutional measures and legal provisions for the promotion and protection of human rights in Afghanistan which can be expected from a democratic nation. But several political, socio-ethnic and socio-economic circumstances such as frequent violence due to insurgency and counter-insurgency operations, dearth of popular legitimacy to the regime, challenges to political instability along with the orthodox and heterogeneous society, facing acute economic underdevelopment have hampered the actual process of the promotion and protection of human rights in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Human Rights, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, Taliban, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, Central Asia, and Punjab

351. Urban Formation and Culture Transformation in Mughal India

Author:: Rukhsana Iftikhar
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: India was comprised of many villages before the arrival of Muslims. Those Muslim invaders, who conquered India and established their rule, essentially belonged to the urban ruling classes. In early Turkish Empire (1206 – 1266), ruling classes have developed numerous urban centers in town across India. In Muslims period, Iqta system provided opportunities to Turko – Afghan communities to have luxurious life style which provoked skill workers, artesian and architect to migrate garrison. These towns also emerge as cultural centers with the passage of time. Early cities like Daultabad, Fatehpur Sikri and Shahjahanabad (Old Delhi) were royal capital cities. Some of the major cities like Kabul, Agra, Allahabad, Lahore, Attock and Multan were developed near major road (Grand Trunk Road). Many towns like Dholpur, Jodhpur, Sirohi, Asirgarh and Ajmer were inhabited near nonmetal led roads . Many of the Mughal cities and towns still exist in spite of many natural disasters. Many European travelers narrated the glory and significance of these cities and towns in their account. They compared Indian cities with Europe, like Fatehpur Sikri was larger than London and Delhi was not less urbanized than Paris. These urban centers were not only the administrative units but also considered as cultural centers in Mughal State. Emperors sometimes generated the economic activities in these urban centers. Abul Fazal mentioned many factories in Delhi, Agra and Fatehpur Sikri supplied many precious articles in the King’s wardrobe. Capital cities always had the excess of fruit and food for the Royal kitchen. People brought their master pieces in the capital city just to get the acknowledgement of kings and nobles. This paper analyzes the development of major urban centers in Mughals (most illustrated dynasty of the Muslim civilization). It also highlights the cultural transformation of Muslims under the influence of native one.
Topic:: Economics, History, Urbanization, and Medieval History
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, Central Asia, India, and Punjab

352. Afghanistan Imbroglio: The Unintended Consequences of Foreign Interventions

Author:: Asifa Jahangir and Umbreen Javaid
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The war-torn Afghanistan has long suffered from the dynastical contests and fraught economic strategies of foreigners, which instigated constant internal strife and regional instability. The foreign interventions have made this land a sphere of influence and initiated the great game politics sporadically. This paper attempts to examine the historical geostrategic tussles in Afghanistan between international players on the one hand and regional actors on the other hand over control and manipulation of Afghanistan and its surrounding regions through the lens of conceptual framework of unintended consequences approach, which deals with irrational aspect of foreign policy of the states. This study makes interesting contribution to the existing literature of the [old] Great Game of the late 19th century between Czarist Russia and Great Britain or New Great Game by re-conceptualizing this idea into a new concept of the Grand Great Game or the 3G in place of explaining the unintended consequences of the historical events i.e. the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan of 1979, the post-Cold War era when the regional players Pakistan and India got involved in Afghanistan; and the US invasion of Afghanistan of 9/11 incident. The findings of the paper suggest that the unintended consequences of these historical events are bitter than the reality. The foreign interventions have paralyzed the Afghan society and made it more insecure by promoting clandestine terrorist activities and proxies. The interview technique helps to verify the 3G concept and present its unintended consequences. The critical content analysis of the primary and secondary data is of assistance to understand that the current 3G to be not only multidimensional competition, embodying multiple stakeholders but also incorporating complex self-defined rational as well as irrational foreign policy objectives and national interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, History, Power Politics, Territorial Disputes, Taliban, Geopolitics, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Europe, South Asia, India, Punjab, and United States of America

353. TTP’S Safe Havens in Afghanistan: A Constant Threat to Pakistan’s Internal Security

Author:: Arshad Mahmood and Shaheen Akhtar
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Though Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is significantly weakened and dislodged from former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) yet, it has relocated to bordering areas in Afghanistan under ideological umbrella of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and gets operational and logistics support through Afghan and Indian intelligence agencies. ISIS, having been greatly marginalized in the Middle East is struggling to gain foothold in Afghanistan with TTP as its proxy to execute the deadly terrorist attacks in Pakistan. The presence of ISIS in Afghanistan not only poses threat to Afghanistan but its collusion with TTP threatens Pakistan’s internal security as well. Pakistan’s sacrifices go in vain if cooperation from Afghanistan and the US forces is not forthcoming in defeating ISIS and TTP operating from Afghanistan. The article argues while domestic reforms and effective implementation of National Action Plan (NAP) by Pakistan is important to quell extremism and terrorism from urban centres, the cooperation from regional countries, harbouring TTP is vital for the elimination of scourge of terrorism from the region.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, Taliban, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, Central Asia, and Punjab

354. Reasons to Remedies: Framing of Terrorist Attacks in Major Urdu and English Newspapers of Pakistan

Author:: Muhammad Akram Soomro and Bushra H. Rehman
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Twenty first century has witnessed a new kind of war, “War on Terror”. Pakistan joined this war after the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and became a front line state in this war. Resultantly, Pakistan had to end its support for the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban did not accept that policy shift and in reaction began attacking almost every place and segment of society right from military to politicians, mosques to parks, and hospitals to schools. The relationship between media and terrorism is indispensable because terrorists need media coverage and publicity, and media needs shocking and sensational news stories. Given this backdrop, this study intends to investigate two research questions. First, “What reasons of terrorist attacks were discussed in the editorials of major Urdu and English newspaper of Pakistan?” and second, “What solutions were suggested in the major Urdu and English newspaper of Pakistan?” Two newspapers, daily Dawn (English Newspaper) and daily Jang (Urdu Newspaper) have been selected for this study. Content analysis has been used as methodology and editorials published during 2001 to 2016 constitute the population for this research study. The results show that shift in foreign policy of Pakistan towards Afghanistan was discussed as a major reason of terrorist attacks and similarly, as solution, review of foreign policy of Pakistan towards Afghanistan was discussed in highest number of editorials.
Topic:: Terrorism, Taliban, Violent Extremism, Media, News Analysis, and Violence
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, Central Asia, and Punjab

355. The Revolutionary Seeds of Mass Media

Author:: Sania El-Husseini
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: The development and spread of mass media throughout the Middle East over the past two decades—starting with satellite television stations, which took national narratives out from under state control, and followed by social media, which gave voice to the masses—is widely considered a key factor leading to the eruption of the Arab revolutions.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Mass Media, Democracy, Internet, Arab Spring, Journalism, and Revolution
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, North America, Qatar, and United States of America

356. R2P Monitor, Issue 42, 15 November 2018

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 42 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

357. R2P Monitor, Issue 41, 15 September 2018

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 41 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Burundi, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Nicaragua, Nigeria and South Sudan.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Community, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Syria, Nigeria, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, and Central African Republic

358. R2P Monitor, Issue 40, 15 July 2018

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 40 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central African Republic, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Burundi, Cameroon, Iraq, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories and Nigeria.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Nigeria, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, and Central African Republic

359. R2P Monitor, Issue 39, 15 May 2018

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 39 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, South Sudan, Burundi, Iraq and Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

360. R2P Monitor, Issue 38, 15 March 2018

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 38 looks at developments in Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Iraq and Burundi.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

361. R2P Monitor, Issue 37, 15 January 2018

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 37 looks at developments in Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Iraq, Sudan, Burundi, Philippines, and Somalia.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Philippines, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Somalia, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

362. ETHICAL COMMITMENTS AND RAISON D’ETAT IN RENTIER STATES: ASYLUM-SEEKER POLICIES IN THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL AND CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS DURING THE REFUGEE CRISIS

Author:: Farkhad Alimukhamedov, Laurent A. Lambert, and Hisham Bin Hashim
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: The international migrant crisis made headlines during summer 2015 and challenged the national asylum systems of many countries worldwide. Going beyond academic circles, hot debates on migrants and the role of asylum highlighted the gap and paradoxes that exist between claimed values of solidarity on the one hand, and the restrictive policies and regulations towards asylum seekers on the other hand. This paper documents this tension in oil and gas exporting states, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Central Asian Republics (CAR). It questions the claimed regional, ethnic and/or religious ties and the borders that have been closed to most asylum seekers from Syria and Afghanistan, who are presently living in poorer (oil and gas deprived) neighboring countries. This paper argues that in a time of low oil revenues and fiscal difficulties, rentier states give priority to the Raison d’Etat over any form of transnational solidarity and commitment to international human rights agreements and charters. New and creative institutional arrangements are needed to deal with the global refugee crisis, as traditional solidarities are, in both regions as well as in other rentier countries, victims of the modernization of politics and its uncaring redefinition of state interest in times of low oil revenues.
Topic:: Migration, Oil, United Nations, Refugees, Gas, and transnationalism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Central Asia, Middle East, Asia, and Syria

363. Making Sense of Russia’s Policy in Afghanistan

Author:: Stephen Blank and Younkyoo Kim
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: For some time, Western sources have been accusing Moscow of backing the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. However, little effort has been done to analyze the modalities of this support and the way it relates to Moscow's overall policies and objectives in Central and Southern Asia. This essay sets out to explain both the trend in Russia’s policies towards Afghanistan between 2013 and 2017, and the reasons underneath them. It explores Russia's actions vis-à-vis contending forces in Afghanistan and Central Asia in the broader context of Moscow’s rapprochement with Pakistan, its ties to India and China and overall anti-Americanism that has grown exponentially since 2014. We argue that this approach would provide a better understanding of Russia’s policies and objectives in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Taliban, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, and Central Asia

364. The Fatemiyoun Division: Afghan fighters in the Syrian civil war

Author:: Tobias Schneider
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Originally styled as a small detachment of volunteers and refugees mobilized to defend the shrine of Sayyeda Zeinab outside Damascus, the Fatemiyoun formation’s size and presence across Syria has slowly expanded throughout the war. At home, the IRGC began cultivating a narrative of Afghan “resistance” to transnational Sunni jihadism. Joining the Syrian jihad was increasingly promoted as a path to legal and social recognition within the Islamic Republic at a time when thousands of desperate young Hazaras were setting out to emigrate to Europe. This paper analyzes the origins and expansion of the Fatemiyoun Division, its recent role in the Syrian civil war, and the impact its Syrian jihad has had on the Hazara community in Iran as well as transnational militancy in Afghanistan. As the Syrian conflict winds down, the future of the Fatemiyoun as a fighting force remains unclear. But even if the formation were to be disbanded, the networks, narratives, and capabilities developed in Syria could help the IRGC raise a similar formation again in the future.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Refugees, Syrian War, and Shia
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

365. How Imran Khan Might Change Pakistan and its U.S. Relations

Author:: Michael Kugelman, Arif Rafiq, Tamanna Salikuddin, and Moeed Yusuf
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Many anticipate that as the new prime minister, Imran Khan will change Pakistan and alter its relations with the United States and regional powers. Khan’s first speech to the nation was moderate in tone and substance. He has an ambitious reform agenda that above all promises to deal with corruption. What domestic constraints will he face? Will his being a successful populist, the first since the 1970s, embolden him to pursue transformative policies such as on taxation and land reform? How will his government handle Pakistan’s looming economic crisis? Will he inevitably butt heads with the military over its budget and Pakistan’s policies toward countering terrorism? Is Khan prepared to modify his deeply negative views on the U.S. role in Afghanistan? How far should he be expected to go curbing the Afghan Taliban and pushing it toward peace talks? Can he improve relations with India and also satisfy his religious-political base? These and other questions were addressed in a discussion among a distinguished panel of experts on Pakistan hosted by the Middle East Institute (MEI). The panelists are Michael Kugelman (Wilson Center), Arif Rafiq (Cizier Consulting), Tamanna Salikuddin (U.S. Institute of Peace) and Moeed Yusuf (U.S. Institute of Peace). MEI’s director for Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, Marvin Weinbaum, moderated.
Topic:: Politics, Bilateral Relations, Reform, Taliban, and Economy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

366. The Law Behind Rule of Law Promotion in Fragile States: The Case of Afghanistan

Author:: Astrid Wiik and Frauke Lachenmann
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:: Rule of law (RoL) promotion has become a go-to-tool in the complex process of stabilizing and rebuilding (post-)conflict States. The process is driven by a heterogeneous group of national, foreign, and international actors who define and prescribe RoL norms and standards, who programme, finance, implement, and eventually monitor RoL reforms. While the legitimacy and effectiveness of RoL promotion has undergone scrutiny, particularly within the overall context of international development assistance, an aspect that has so far received little attention is the legality of RoL promotion. This concerns both the mandate of the various actors and the execution of RoL activities on the ground. Since 2001, the international community has intensely supported the RoL in Afghanistan rendering it a veritable testing ground for RoL promotion. The article explores the legal framework for actors in RoL promotion in Afghanistan from 2001 up to the present day, with a focus on the German Government, its development cooperation agencies, and private non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The article shows that while detailed rules bind the monitoring and evaluation of RoL activities in line with the existing international frameworks for development assistance, few laws and principles guide the programming and implementation of RoL promotion. The existing standards are generally too abstract to guide specific RoL promotion activities. Further concretization and harmonization is necessary in the interest of the sustainability of RoL promotion in Afghanistan – and elsewhere.
Topic:: International Law, Non State Actors, Governance, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

367. Hybrid democracy: electoral rules and political competition in Afghanistan

Author:: Aureo Gomes
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: Departing from the hybridity literature on peacebuilding and electoral studies, this paper treats democratization in Afghanistan as a hybridization process. As a result, to understand the durability of corruption, fragile political parties, and non-democratic practices in the country, one should look more closely at the interplay between the current electoral system and how elites and local people respond to it.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Peace, and Hybridization
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

368. Counterinsurgency and Human Security: A Critical analysis of the US Counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan and Iraq, 2001-2014

Author:: Aamer Raza
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Review of Human Rights
Institution:: Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:: In this article I take up the counterinsurgency policy and practice of the US armed forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. By focusing on the Counterinsurgency Manual 2006, I highlight how the US counterinsurgency policy did not fully incorporate the concept of human security. Accordingly, the counterinsurgency operations that were carried out in the wake of the War on Terrorism failed to ensure human security to the vulnerable segments of the populations in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Topic:: Counterinsurgency, Conflict, War on Terror, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and United States of America

369. Trump’s Withdrawal from Syria: Not Unexpected and a Victory for the “Astana Three”

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The possibility that Iran and Turkey will be emboldened by the American decision, is worrisome. The main counter to that will be robust deterrence from Israel, whose maintenance may increase the likeliness of escalation in Syria and Lebanon, and even more resort to the restraining hand of Russia.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

370. The Afghan Taliban's Relationship with Pakistan

Author:: Safi Khalilullah and Joseph Mohr
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: This paper seeks to reflect the views of those fighting the Afghan government, which includes the movement of the Afghan Taliban. The movement of the Afghan Taliban grew out of multiple sources, but came mainly from primarily local bands of religious students who joined the anti-Communist uprising of Afghan religious scholars. These bands of religious students captured branches in some of the Pakistan-based religious resistance parties, and were frequently integrated in provincial organizations as separate “fronts” inside Afghanistan. The religious students did not appropriate the modernizing Islamist discourse of Hezb-i Islami and other parties, but demanded the creation of an Islamic system of governance, the "Islamic Emirate," headed by the commander of the faithful (amir al-muminin), and not a President. This vision was realized in 1998, two years after the fall of Kabul. Pakistani support had been used up to this point by all parties in order to capture power in Afghanistan as a tactic. With the fall of the Islamic Emirate, this tactic changed to become the strategy for their survival, come-back and counter-offensive. Every time the Taliban used Pakistan in order to secure their leadership, establishing command centers, recruitment, or any other activity, the increasing reliance colored their whole activity. In the matter of recruitment, this meant that Pakistani youth would be admitted into the Afghan Taliban ranks as full members. Ultimately, this reliance also opened up the Afghan Taliban to Pakistani penetration and influence. Mullah Omar, the “amir al-muminin” tried to counter this trend by relocating into hiding inside Afghanistan, where he also died. In the process, he had ceded much actual control to his messengers, who could operate in Pakistan and the world in his name. The article provides an overview of Mullah Omar’s movements between Afghanistan and Pakistan after the fall of the Taliban Emirate up to his death. In light of President Trump speech on 21 August 2017, and subsequent briefings by Secretary of Defense Mattis and General Dunford to the Senate on 3 October, a stronger focus of the United States on Pakistan’s role in supporting the Taliban is evident. The views of the Taliban and Al-Qaida operatives on the role played by Pakistan appear to support this shift in American focus from President Obama’s approach.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, and Al Qaeda
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Middle East

371. Engaging with Non-state Armed Groups to Protect Civilians: A Pragmatic Approach for UN Peace Operations

Author:: Ralph Mamiya
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Engaging non-state armed groups (NSAGs) is an essential tool for the protection of civilians (POC), a priority mandate and core objective for peace operations. Beyond the use of force to prevent or stop armed groups from threatening local populations, multidimensional missions can use a wide range of unarmed strategies, such as dialogue and engagement, to counter hostilities from non-state actors. This paper looks at how, when, and why UN missions engage with NSAGs. It gives an overview of current practice, drawing on the experiences of the missions in Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mali. It then examines the risks of engaging NSAGs and how POC mandates can help missions navigate these risks. Finally, it looks at peace operations’ unique capacities to engage with NSAGs and how best to leverage them. Civilian protection is ever more urgent, and engaging NSAGs is crucial to this work. A pragmatic approach, anchored in POC considerations, can help guide missions through potentially polarizing debates and safeguard UN principles while simultaneously allowing them to adapt more effectively to the challenges they face.
Topic:: United Nations, Non State Actors, Peacekeeping, Armed Forces, and Civilians
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, Central Asia, Mali, Central African Republic, and Congo

372. British–Russian Convention and Ottoman Empire in the Context of Polarization Politics

Author:: M. Volkan Atuk
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The British-Russian Convention of 1907 was seen as a joint effort by Britain and Russia to reconcile their areas of influence in Asia but apart from this purpose, it represented the last ring of the emerging tripartite blog that included France against Germany and its allies. The agreement, which mainly came into agenda for partitioning Iran, was handled by the Ottoman Foreign Affairs as a text about Asian affairs. The Ottoman statesmen, who considered only the part of this agreement concerning Afghanistan, Tibet and Iran, couldn’t realize that this was an important part of the polarization politics that pushed world to a general war.
Topic:: Politics, Treaties and Agreements, History, Ottoman Empire, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Britain, Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Iran, Eurasia, and Tibet

373. China's Engagement in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Xinjiang: Will China's Root Cause Model provide regional stability and security?

Author:: Lars Erslev Andersen and Yang Jiang
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In the latest policy report in DIIS’s Defence and Security Studies series, Lars Erslev Andersen and Yang Jiang discuss the potential of China’s approach to stabilising security conditions in Pakistan and Afghanistan through development. The report explores China’s westward policy by analysing the opportunities and obstacles related to its flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in South Asia, in particular the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). One aspect of the philosophy behind the CPEC is that lifting people out of poverty by providing them with better opportunities for jobs and incomes and hence improved living conditions will reduce the attractions of violent extremism and the inclination to indulge in it, thereby enhancing stability. This so-called Root Cause model draws on China’s experience of successfully lifting more than 600 million of its own citizens out of poverty due to the reform policy that has changed China rapidly over the past forty years, especially in the big cities in eastern China. However, the model has had mixed results in western China, especially in Xinjiang province. As this issue can shed light on the kinds of problems that China will face in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the report explores the situation in Xinjiang by investigating how it is conducting its policy there. The report outlines this development, which brings the Root Cause model into question to some extent, thus identifying some of the challenges that China will face in trying to stabilise conflict-torn parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan ‘the Chinese way’. Following these observations, the report takes a closer look at China’s economic diplomacy in Afghanistan. The last section discusses China’s increasing role in mediating between Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Taliban. Whether the Chinese approach to the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan proves to be a sustainable way of providing stability and achieving results is the question addressed in the report’s conclusion.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Emerging Markets, Migration, Oil, Power Politics, Non State Actors, Gas, Fragile States, Economy, Conflict, Investment, Peace, and Land Rights
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

374. Intertwined Affairs: Reasons and Repercussions of Exempting Chabahar Port from US Sanctions

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Despite US determination on the strict application of its sanctions on Iran, it has granted a waiver for the development of Iran’s Chabahar port, in which both India and Afghanistan participate. In addition, it granted waivers for eight Iranian oil-importing countries from sanctions, temporarily, until they find other alternatives. The move, announced by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, on November 7, seems to be closely related to Washington’s assessment of its relations with Asian powers, particularly India and China, as well as the future of political and security arrangements in Afghanistan. However, this move could send mixed signals that might ultimately affect Iran’s stance on sanctions.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Oil, Sanctions, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, South Asia, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

375. Possible Obstacles: Will Russian Succeed in Reaching a Settlement in Afghanistan?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Moscow hosted a new round of talks in an effort to reach a settlement for the conflict in Afghanistan, on November 9, dubbed as “Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan”. Moscow considered that the potential gain would be the participation of Taliban representatives for the first time in two years, since the launcg of the talks. These talks witnessed two previous rounds, which did not yield any results. They were mainly a regional dialogue with the neighbouring countries concerned with the Afghan issue. Although Russia says there has been a considerable progress in the talks, this does not negate the fact that they still face many challenges that were evident in the outcome of the meeting. However, Moscow will likely continue its efforts to hold further talks, especially in the light of the evolving situation on the ground, namely ISIS moving from Syria and Iraq and some Middle Eastern countries to Afghanistan. Such move is considered an eminent threat to Moscow’s national security and interests.
Topic:: Taliban, Islamic State, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, South Asia, and Eurasia

376. The "Mobile Militia": Will Iran Replicate the Hezbollah Model in Afghanistan?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The prospect of Iran replicating the Lebanese Hezbollah model in other countries can no longer be ruled out, amid the pressure of the new sanctions imposed on Tehran in the wake of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal on May 8, 2018. One of the objectives that Tehran may seek to achieve through such move is to exploit its regional influence to reduce the US pressure and, perhaps at a later stage, bolster its negotiating position versus Washington in any potential new negotiations. However, there are other objectives that Iran may try to achieve, if it decides to press ahead with this option, such as creating loyal military arms in Afghanistan. Hence, Iran will be able to possess instruments to influence the government decisions in the stage leading up to a settlement of the Afghan crisis, as well as enhance its prospects of participating in the efforts to reach such a settlement.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Geopolitics, Hezbollah, and Militias
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, and Middle East

377. Dilemmas and Experiences of International Support for Inclusive Peacebuilding

Author:: Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The issue of inclusive peacebuilding has moved up the international agenda in recent years. There is now unprecedented policy-level commitment among the international community to promote inclusion in conflict-affected contexts; growing evidence of the importance of inclusion for sustainable peace and development; emerging lessons on best approaches for promoting inclusion; and a recognition among international actors of the need to learn from past weaknesses in this area. This report examines the current policy context for providing international support to inclusive peacebuilding. It identifies how international actors can strengthen their efforts to promote inclusion by learning from previous experience and drawing on new knowledge and approaches. It goes on to look at how international actors have supported inclusion in three very different conflict-affected contexts, Afghanistan, Somalia and Nepal, and asks how international actors have engaged on issues of inclusion in these contexts, what factors shaped this engagement, and what the results have been.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, Middle East, Asia, Nepal, and Somalia

378. Returning to Fragility: Exploring the Link Between Conflict and Returnees in Afghanistan

Author:: Jorrit Kamminga and Akram Zaki
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Huge numbers of people are returning to Afghanistan – more than two million since 2015 – while the country is still highly fragile, with ongoing fighting and internal displacement in many areas and high levels of poverty. Oxfam’s field research in Herat, Kabul, Kunduz and Nangarhar finds that for as long as these conditions do not improve, a safe and dignified return cannot be guaranteed, and forced returns remain irresponsible. With more people returning on a daily basis, tensions are likely to grow and pressure on scarce resources will increase, exacerbating inequalities in this unstable and fragile country. Sending Afghans back to volatile areas will likely result only in more displacement and fragility.
Topic:: Refugees, Fragile States, Displacement, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

379. Swinging Between Hope and Despair: Kabul Citizens’ Voting Behaviour in the 2018 Wolesi Jirga Election

Author:: Mohammad Mahdi Zaki, Sediqa Bakhitari, and Mohammad Hassan Wafaey
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: This Briefing Paper presents a summary of the initial findings from AREU’s research on the parliamentary elections. The study aims to analyse the voting behaviour of Kabul citizens in the upcoming 2018 Wolesi Jirga elections. Taking into consideration the deterioration of the security situation in Afghanistan (The World Bank , 2018), as well as the long delay in holding elections, this study will mainly focus on the factors that are going to influence the voting behaviour of Kabul residents in the 2018 parliamentary elections. The paper will first describe the methodology, followed by the initial key findings from the research and conclude with a number of recommendations
Topic:: Security, Elections, Democracy, Election watch, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

380. Afghanistan Affectations How to Break Political-Criminal Alliances in Contexts of Transition

Author:: Vanda Felbab-Brown
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: In “Afghanistan Affectations,” a detailed report published by the United Nations University Centre for Policy Research’s Crime-Conflict Nexus Series in April 2017, Vanda Felbab-Brown assesses how counterinsurgency, stabilization, and reconstruction dynamics have interacted with organized crime, illicit economies, and generalized predatory criminality since 2001 and warped and weakened the post-conflict stabilization and reconstruction efforts.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

381. The ad bellum Challenge of Drones: Recalibrating Permissible Use of Force

Author:: Alejandro Chehtman
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: Drones constitute an incremental advance in weapons systems. They are able to significantly reduce overall, as well as collateral, damage. These features seem to have important implications for the permissibility of resorting to military force. In short, drones would seem to expand the right to resort to military force compared to alternative weapons systems by making resorting to force proportionate in a wider set of circumstances. This line of reasoning has significant relevance in many contemporary conflicts. This article challenges this conclusion. It argues that resorting to military force through drones in contemporary asymmetrical conflicts would usually be disproportionate. The reason for this is twofold. First, under conditions of radical asymmetry, drones may not be discriminatory enough, and, thereby, collateral damage would still be disproportionate. Second, their perceived advantages in terms of greater discrimination are counteracted by the lesser chance of success in achieving the just cause for war. As a result, resorting to military force through drones in contemporary asymmetrical conflicts would generally be disproportionate not because of the harm they would expectedly cause but, rather, because of the limited harm they are ultimately able to prevent. On the basis of normative argument and empirical data, this article ultimately shows that we need to revise our understanding of proportionality not only at the level of moral argument but also in international law.
Topic:: International Law, War, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Europe

382. Does and Should International Law Prohibit the Prosecution of Children for War Crimes?

Author:: Noëlle Quénivet
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: This article investigates whether international law prohibits the prosecution of children for war crimes and, if it does not, whether it should do so. In particular, the interplay between restorative and retributive post-conflict justice mechanisms, on the one hand, and juvenile rehabilitative justice mechanisms, on the other, is discussed in detail. The article suggests that in certain, narrow, circumstances children having committed war crimes should be prosecuted.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, International Law, Children, War Crimes, and Transitional Justice
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Europe, and Democratic Republic of Congo

383. Rightsizing expectations: U.S. policy options for Afghanistan

Author:: John R Allen
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: On June 12, 2017, Bruce Jones, director of the Brookings Foreign Policy Program, convened five Brookings experts—John Allen, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Tanvi Madan, Michael O’Hanlon, and Bruce Riedel—to discuss the history and future of U.S. policy in Afghanistan. The edited transcript below reflects their assessments of evolving U.S. objectives in Afghanistan, progress to date, enduring challenges, regional dynamics, burden-sharing with coalition partners and regional stakeholders, domestic political support for ongoing U.S. commitment, and policy recommendations for U.S. strategy going forward.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

384. Afghanistan Order of Battle

Author:: Morgan Wesley
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: The Afghanistan ORBAT (PDF) describes the location and area of responsibility of all American units in Afghanistan, down to the battalion level, updated as of February 2016..
Topic:: International Relations and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

385. Afghan Narcotrafficking: A Joint Policy Assessment

Author:: Tony Bricktua
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The EastWest Institute (EWI) has released Afghan Narcotrafficking: A Joint Policy Assessment, the sixth and final report from the institute’s Joint U.S.-Russia Working Group on Afghan Narcotrafficking, which provides a comprehensive and updated assessment of the Afghan drug trade and the role that both the United States and Russia might be able to play in countering this shared threat.
Topic:: International Affairs and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

386. Afghan Narcotrafficking: Illicit Financial Flows

Author:: Tony Bricktua
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The EastWest Institute (EWI) today announced the launch of its latest report, Afghan Narcotrafficking: Illicit Financial Flows. The fifth in a six-part series, this report has been developed to assist policymakers and scholars to better comprehend the nature of illicit flows of goods and services from and into Afghanistan and their relation to drug smuggling. The report provides a comprehensive review and analysis of the opiate trafficking economy as well as recommendations and strategies to counter, control and reduce the supply-side of opiate narcotics around the world.
Topic:: International Political Economy and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

387. Military Dimension of the New U.S. and NATO Afghanistan Strategy

Author:: Wojciech Lorenz
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: According to the new U.S. strategy for Afghanistan, winter will not stop intensified operations against the Taliban. With the increased U.S. and NATO troop level, Afghan forces will switch from defensive to offensive activities. Only stronger military pressure and other forms of influence taken together might impel the Taliban to negotiate with the government in Kabul. The political effects of the new strategy should be expected only in a longer-term perspective.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

388. Journal of Public and International Affairs 2017

Author:: Bethany Atkins, Trevor Pierce, Valentina Baiamonte, Chiara Redaelli, Hal Brewster, Vivian Chang, Lindsay Holcomb, Sarah Lohschelder, Nicolas Pose, Stephen Reimer, Namitha Sadanand, and Eustace Uzor
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: From the United States to the Switzerland, this year’s Journal draws on a diverse range of authors’ experiences and studies to analyze a varied—yet timely—set of current issues. By spotlighting topics such as climate change, voting rights, and gender issues, JPIA contributes to the debates that are occurring today. The strong use of quantitative analysis and in-depth study of resources ensures that this year’s Journal adds a select perspective to the debate that hopefully policymakers will find useful and actionable.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Development, Narcotics Trafficking, Law, Prisons/Penal Systems, Elections, Women, Brexit, Multilateralism, Private Sector, Carbon Tax, Carbon Emissions, and Gerrymandering
Political Geography:: Britain, Afghanistan, Africa, China, South Asia, Central Asia, Asia, and Nigeria

389. February 2017 Issue

Author:: Georg Heil, Brian Dodwell, Don Rassler, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, Robin Simcox, Shashi Jayakumar, and Andrew McGregor
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In an extensive interview, General John W. Nicholson, commander of Resolute Support and U.S. Forces-Afghanistan, stresses the importance of preventing the country from again becoming a platform for international terrorism, noting counterterrorism operations have almost halved the fighting strength of the Islamic State’s local affiliate. He also outlines the ongoing effort to empower Afghan efforts against the Taliban, saying: “They’re at a bit of a stalemate. The government holds about two-thirds of the population. The enemy holds a solid 8 to 10 percent. … We think [if] we get to about 80 percent or more, we start to reach a tipping point where the insurgency becomes more irrelevant.” Our cover story by Georg Heil focuses on the deadly truck attack this past December in Berlin by Anis Amri, a Tunisian extremist suspected of links to Islamic State operatives in Libya. Investigations have made clear the danger posed by the radical network he belonged to in northwestern Germany led by an Iraqi preacher named Abu Walaa. It is believed to have recruited dozens to travel to join the Islamic State, communicated extensively with Islamic State operatives in Syria and Iraq, and encouraged attacks on German soil. Heil argues the high level of interconnectedness between these radicals in Germany and the Islamic State has potentially grave implications for European security. Aymenn al-Tamimi looks at the implications of the recent realignment of rebel and jihadi groups in Syria, which created two potentially conflicting power centers revolving around an enlarged Ahrar al-Sham and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a new al-Qa`ida-aligned umbrella grouping. Robin Simcox finds Islamic State plots by pre-teens and teens are increasing in the West, with plotters in contact with the group in a majority of such cases. Shashi Jayakumar examines the growing Islamic State threat to Southeast Asia, arguing the group may pose as big a threat in the future in the East as in the West. Andrew McGregor warns growing clashes between Fulani Muslim herders and settled Christian communities in Nigeria could be exploited by terrorist groups and potentially destabilize the entire Sahel-West Africa region.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Youth, Syrian War, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, Germany, Syria, Southeast Asia, and Sahel

390. Shift of Power from West to East and Rise of China

Author:: Mushtaq Ahmed Abbasi and Nazir Hussain
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The US Exit Strategy 2014 from Afghanistan has now entered one of their final phase, which happens to be the Withdrawal from Afghanistan. The US has already lessened its troops, though there were certain changes after Trump came to power. But still there is a looming confusion which exists regarding the aftermath of the event. That is how this Withdrawal will come to play and what would the Afghanistan’s post-US withdrawal would look like. Moreover, Pakistan will also be affected in more than one ways. The US is going to be leaving quite a vacuum upon which many regional and foreign powers have set their eyes on. India, Iran, China and Russia are all going to be a part of the post-US Afghanistan but this might only produce more instability. Moreover, it will have drastic security, political and strategic implications for Pakistan. The picture which comes to the mind is going to be of an everlasting loop of security complexes and strategic undertones after the withdrawal.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Al Qaeda, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, North America, and United States of America

391. US Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Implications for Pakistan

Author:: Mushtaq Ahmed Abbasi and Nazir Hussain
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The US Exit Strategy 2014 from Afghanistan has now entered one of their final phase, which happens to be the Withdrawal from Afghanistan. The US has already lessened its troops, though there were certain changes after Trump came to power. But still there is a looming confusion which exists regarding the aftermath of the event. That is how this Withdrawal will come to play and what would the Afghanistan’s post-US withdrawal would look like. Moreover, Pakistan will also be affected in more than one ways. The US is going to be leaving quite a vacuum upon which many regional and foreign powers have set their eyes on. India, Iran, China and Russia are all going to be a part of the post-US Afghanistan but this might only produce more instability. Moreover, it will have drastic security, political and strategic implications for Pakistan. The picture which comes to the mind is going to be of an everlasting loop of security complexes and strategic undertones after the withdrawal.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Al Qaeda, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, North America, and United States of America

392. Factors Promoting Foreign Aid Dependence in South Asian Countries

Author:: Shazia Kousar and Salman Masood
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This study used panel data approach to investigate comprehensive set of determinant of foreign aid and extent to which these determinants, domestic saving, capital formation, human capital, government expenditure, military expenditure and trade deficit, can affect foreign aid dependence in south Asian countries like Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. This study used Error correction model to estimate the short run association between defined variables. The results indicate that capital formation, ,trade deficit, government budget deficit and military expenditure have positive and significant association with foreign aid in the long run while these determinant have positive but insignificant relationship with foreign aid in the short run except gross domestic capital formation (GDCF). However, domestic savings, human capital formation has negative and significant relationship with foreign aid in long run. The findings of the study help foreign aid policy makers, analysts, researchers and official donor agencies.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, South Asia, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Punjab, and Bhutan

393. Image of USA in Urban Pakistan: An Empirical Assessment

Author:: Muhammad Asif and Ayaz Muhammad
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Image plays an important role while devising a country‘s foreign policy. Therefore, all the nations whether small or big try to portray their positive images for the achievement of desired goals. USA, a dominant political actor in world politics is facing an image problem throughout the globe. Pakistan‘s alliance with the USA during and after the Cold War makes it an ideal nation to evaluate the image of USA. This empirical study designed to investigate the factors affecting, molding and promoting the positive or negative images of USA in Pakistan. Five urban centers selected to evaluate the US image including four provincial capitals namely Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Quetta and the federal capital Islamabad. Survey method used to collect and analyze the data. The image of USA evaluated in five selected areas: violation of Pakistan‘s sovereignty, US policies towards Muslim world, US policies in Afghanistan, mounting Indo-US relations, and US aid to Pakistan. Results of the study show that the factor where the image of USA was extremely negative is violation of Pakistan‘s sovereignty. US policies towards Muslim world, the issue of Afghanistan and rising strategic ties with India especially after the end of cold war are not welcomed by the Pakistani masses and viewed the American image as negative but with less intensity as compared to the factor of violation of Pakistan‘s sovereignty. Public supported the US aid program to Pakistan and viewed it as supportive for country‘s frail and flimsy economy.
Topic:: War, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Aid, Military Affairs, Military Intervention, and 9/11
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, Punjab, and United States of America

394. India: Policy Implications for the United States

Author:: Jon P. Dorschner
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: India has long been obsessed with its rivalry with Pakistan, and for many years India viewed Pakistan as its principal security threat. Pakistan continues to support terrorist attacks directed against India and India-controlled Kashmir, and is continually increasing its nuclear arsenal and delivery systems for nuclear warheads. Despite this, Indians have come to feel more self-assured and no longer see Pakistan as the country’s principal security threat.China now occupies this position. India no longer views itself simply as the predominant regional power in South Asia, but as an aspiring world power and is gearing up for what many in India believe is an inevitable conflict with its neighbor the Peoples Republic of China. India has embarked on an outreach program to solidify friendly ties to other Asian nations that feel threatened by China, and is devoting a lot of attention to the ASEAN states (particularly Viet Nam), Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. There is increasing speculation that this relationship could develop into a formal alliance, especially if the United States becomes less active in Asia.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Economy, Trump, and Borders
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, Iran, South Asia, India, North Korea, Kashmir, and United States of America

395. Epidemiological Insurgency: Polio Persistence on the Afghanistan-Pakistan Border

Author:: Rand Quinn
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Despite a profound global impact over the first half of the twentieth century, polio is largely an afterthought throughout the developed world. Vaccines engineered in the late 1950s paved the way for a precipitous drop in global disease burden with the onset of the World Health Organization-led (WHO) Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) starting in 1988. Recent indicators of the program’s success include a declaration of eradication in India[1] and a teeteringly low infection rate in Nigeria;[2] two of the disease’s last bastions. This progress, however, has been notably stifled by the steady persistence of a wild poliovirus reservoir centered in northern Pakistan along the Afghanistan-Pakistan (Af-Pak) border. Throughout significant portions of recorded history this region’s volatility has been well-documented, including a currently sustained network for the training of terrorist fighters dating back to the period of the 1979 Afghan-Soviet War.[3] These networks serve to both attract fledgling radical jihadist recruits and supply fighters globally, markedly providing many of the transnational fighters taking part in the Syrian Civil War. Their movement in and out of the Af-Pak region has provided a major disease vector for poliovirus. The location of a terrorist network transit hub in by far the world’s largest remaining reservoir of wild poliovirus poses a major challenge for policymakers. Due to several factors, including a decline in healthcare infrastructure throughout the western world, the situation presents a legitimate epidemiological threat. However, the issue is more importantly an exemplar of the morphing nature of multidimensional threats, which are likely to become more prevalent in an era of globalization, failed states, and an inability to effectively address social issues amidst the threat of kinetic warfare...
Topic:: Security, Environment, Health, Terrorism, World Health Organization, Infectious Diseases, and Borders
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, Middle East, and United States of America

396. Hearts, Minds, and Hydras: Fighting Terrorism in Afghanistan, Pakistan, America, and Beyond — Dilemmas and Lessons, by William Nester

Author:: Basem Aly and William Nester
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Decision makers and academics have debated for decades the most effective strategies to defeat militant groups. The absence of a clear center of gravity for conventional militaries to target creates hardships in achieving strategic objectives against non-state actors. In a conventional war, the force with a higher capability to destroy these centers of gravity — such as weapons depots and troop deployment locations — will likely win. Yet, when conventional militaries encounter non-state groups, whose centers of gravity may be well hidden or highly dispersed, the results are quite different. The Israeli wars against Hezbollah and the U.S. war in Vietnam exemplify the difficulties related to this traditional dilemma. One counterinsurgency program, suggested by classical theorists such as David Galula, says that success requires focusing on winning the support of local populations by “capturing hearts and minds.” The logic is obvious: locals living in warzones know where militants are hiding their weapons, money, and personnel. Thus, militaries need local support. In his book, Hearts, Minds, and Hydras: Fighting Terrorism in Afghanistan, Pakistan, America, and Beyond — Dilemmas and Lessons, William Nester argues that capturing hearts and minds is not enough. Rather, Nester develops two primary arguments to show that militaries need a multidimensional strategy in order to succeed.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Counterinsurgency, Non State Actors, and Book Review
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, North America, and United States of America

397. China’s New Afghan Diplomacy: Awakening from Inertia or Exception to Old Habits?

Author:: Abdur Rehman Shah
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: For decades, China has pursued a policy of hands-off diplomacy towards regional and international affairs, while narrowly focusing on internal development. Beijing’s recent approach to the Afghanistan conflict, however, has been a major shift. Getting Pakistan’s full support to help end the Afghan insurgency is a possibility given that the U.S. and Afghan governments have utterly failed to bring it to a close. China’s change may signal a shift in China’s “non-interference” approach. However, despite its early activism in the form of outreach to major actors—hosting the Taliban for talks, participation in Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) and now Russia-led talks—China’s Afghan diplomacy has not produced any desirable results to alter Pakistan’s approach towards the Afghan insurgency. One explanation for this lackluster approach is that Pakistan has successfully stemmed the flow of cross-border militants toward China. Furthermore, post-2014 uncertainty in Afghanistan rather than strategic alterations prompted the shift of China’s Afghanistan policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, and Asia

398. R2P Monitor, Issue 36, 15 November 2017

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 36 looks at developments in Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Sudan, Burundi, Philippines, Afghanistan and Somalia.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Philippines, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Somalia, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

399. R2P Monitor, Issue 35, 15 September 2017

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 35 looks at developments in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Myanmar (Burma), South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, Sudan, Burundi, Philippines, Afghanistan and Somalia.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Philippines, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Somalia, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

400. Mapping the Structure of Well-Being and Social Networks of Refugees

Author:: Ammar A. Malik, Edward Mohr, Yasemin Irvin-Erickson, Loren Landau, Caroline Wanjiku-Kihato, and Benjamin Edwards
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: Despite strong ethnic, linguistic and religious similarities with host communities, the presence of Afghan refugees since the 1970s has fundamentally altered Peshawar’s social fabric. Using an original household survey, we explore the structures and forms of refugees’ social networks and their relationship with economic well-being. We find that refugees maintain networks both within refugee and host communities, gaining critical help in finding jobs and housing, besides financial and emotional support. We recommend strengthening refugees’ capacity to self-organize via community-based interventions and clarifying the future of their legal status in Pakistan.
Topic:: Immigration, Refugees, International Development, Displacement, and Cities
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and Peshawar

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS