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32. Trouble In Afghanistan’s Opium Fields: The Taliban War On Drugs
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Taliban have instituted a ban on narcotics in Afghanistan. While that has led to a massive drop in production, it is hitting the rural poor particularly hard. Foreign donors should work with the government to ensure the policy does not further undermine vulnerable populations.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Narcotics Trafficking, Law Enforcement, Taliban, Rural, and Opium
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
33. Moving Mountains:The Vital Role of Afghan Women in Forging a Shared Future
- Author:
- Palwasha Hassan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- Since the Taliban takeover in 2021, Afghanistan has faced a grim confluence of crises—a failing economy, widespread poverty and famine, rampant human rights abuses, and a total erasure of the rights of women and girls. Devastating earthquakes and the deportation of Afghans from Pakistan have further compounded the challenges facing the country. The Taliban appear to be indifferent to international sanctions or any of the usual levers of diplomacy and have not heeded global calls to ease restrictions on women and girls. As the situation intensifies, it has become harder to imagine how things will improve, especially for those most impacted. Recognizing the gravity of the situation, the international community has taken steps to address the situation. In December 2023, the United Nations Security Council adopted a new resolution (UNSCR 2721) on Afghanistan that aims to bring coherence to wide-ranging political, humanitarian, and development activities. Importantly, the Resolution calls for the appointment of a United Nations special envoy for Afghanistan to uphold recommendations from an independent assessment, “particularly regarding gender and human rights.” Not surprisingly, the Taliban have not accepted the report findings or recommendations. Additionally, Afghan women continue to be marginalized from decision-making roles and opportunities to meaningfully influence political processes focused on the future of the country. To further complicate matters, Afghans struggle to form a unified vision for the future of the country. While many courageous Afghan women continue to speak out against Taliban oppression, consensus on the way forward remains out of reach. Decades of war and instability have created deep divisions in Afghan society, making it difficult for the Afghan women’s movement to mobilize a coordinated, strategic response and articulate a cohesive platform for advocacy. To support better coordination and advocacy, this study engaged Afghan women to identify priority actions for peace and stability in the country. The goal of the project was to support Afghan women in articulating a strong and unified voice in preparation for the day when peace negotiations are once again possible. While it is hard to imagine a future in which the Taliban will consider progressive reforms or is no longer in power, we believe it is important to start planning for that day now to ensure diverse perspectives are considered and progress toward meaningful reform can be made over time. Afghan women must be central to any national dialogue and future peace processes.
- Topic:
- Taliban, Women, and Gender Based Violence
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
34. Mass Atrocity Crimes Against Women and Girls in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan has consistently ranked among the ten highest-risk countries for a new onset of mass killing1 in the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s annual Statistical Risk Assessment. 2 Since 2021, when the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, many communities face a heightened risk of targeted violence. In 2021, the Museum’s Simon Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide issued warnings of potential mass atrocities against women and girls3 and the risk of genocide against the Hazara community.4 The Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) have collaborated on a series of convenings on the risks to civilians in Afghanistan and potential international responses to halt and prevent the Taliban’s crimes and advance accountability for the victims. In January 2024, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide and USIP co-hosted a private roundtable discussion on mass atrocity crimes committed against women and girls by the Taliban. The conversation was held in recognition that crimes perpetrated against women and girls, while too often neglected, are often mass atrocities and require a coordinated response from the international community. The convening included researchers, policymakers, activists, legal experts, and other civil society representatives, who discussed the following questions: • What information has been collected about crimes targeting women and girls in Afghanistan, and what patterns emerge from this documentation? • How and why has gender persecution become a focus of investigative efforts? • What are the consequences of the Taliban’s persecution of women and girls? • How can the Taliban be held accountable for their crimes against women and girls? • What topics need further exploration? • What are recommendations for actions that can be undertaken in the coming year to address the Taliban’s crimes against women and girls? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This report summarizes key topics from the conversation without attribution.
- Topic:
- Taliban, Women, Atrocities, Girls, and Risk Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
35. Great Power Politics over the Natural Resources in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Babur Rahmani
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan has always been the centre of attention of global powers throughout history due to its strategic location and the presence of substantial natural resources. While the hegemony of the U.K. has a strategic and geopolitical dimension, the hegemony of Russia and the U.S. has a strategic dimension, and it is claimed that one of the reasons for the occupation of Afghanistan by these two superpowers is its underground riches. The struggle of the great powers to seize and dominate the world’s natural resources, scarce earth resources, has continued extensively from the second half of the 20th century to the present day. Afghanistan has been one of the countries significantly affected by this power struggle. Therefore, in this study, by using the concept of “Great Power Politics”, the scope, breadth and seriousness of the struggle between great powers and rising regional powers over Afghanistan’s natural resources have been analysed. In this context, Afghanistan’s rich underground resources and most of the critical contracts signed with foreign and domestic-foreign companies regarding Afghanistan’s natural resources after 2001 were analysed.
- Topic:
- Politics, Natural Resources, Hegemony, and Great Powers
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
36. Addressing a Human Rights and Looming Terrorism Crisis in Afghanistan: The Need for Principled International Intervention
- Author:
- Lisa Curtis and Annie Pforzheimer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- Pursuing the same harsh policies as it did during its previous stint in power in the 1990s, the Taliban has increasingly clamped down on the rights of women and girls since recapturing control of Afghanistan in August 2021. Restrictions on education started with the Taliban mandate in March 2022 banning girls from attending school past the sixth grade. The Taliban furthered its efforts to deny women basic rights when it announced later in the year that women could no longer attend university or work for international nongovernmental organizations. These and dozens of additional restrictions on Afghan women remain in place today. Meanwhile, terrorist threats that emanate from Afghanistan are intensifying, and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) constitutes the main international concern, especially since it took responsibility for the March 22, 2024, attack on a concert hall in Moscow that killed at least 140 people. The Taliban opposes ISIS-K and had been fighting the group and eliminating its senior leaders, including the mastermind behind the August 26, 2021, suicide bombings that killed 170 Afghans and 13 U.S. service members.1 Regional groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan are also active but face few constraints on their activities from the Taliban, with whom they share core ideological beliefs.2 The Taliban also remains allied with al-Qaeda and has even allowed the terrorist group responsible for the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States to take on leadership roles within its regime.3 Monitoring threats from ISIS-K necessitates engagement with the Taliban, but U.S. counterterrorism goals should not prevent the United States from also pressing a human rights agenda. For the benefit of the Afghan people—especially women and girls—and the long-term stability and prosperity of the nation, Washington and like-minded partners must employ both incentives and disincentives to compel the Taliban to improve human rights. Since regional countries largely ignore human rights in their dealings with the Taliban, it is incumbent upon the United States, United Nations (UN), and European Union to follow a principled approach and incorporate human rights into their agenda on Afghanistan. In the long term, relying on regional governments to take the lead in engaging with the Taliban would result in disaster for the Afghan people and international security. The best hope for shaping future Taliban behavior lies with the UN, which can speak coherently and convincingly on behalf of the international community. In his remarks following a meeting of special envoys in Doha, Qatar, in February 2024, for example, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres articulated a UN agenda for Afghanistan that would be a starting point for a coherent international strategy. He emphasized that meeting participants had achieved a consensus to focus on counterterrorism, inclusive governance where all ethnic groups are represented, human rights—especially for women and girls, with an emphasis on education—counternarcotics, and more effective delivery of aid.4
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Terrorism, Taliban, and Humanitarian Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
37. The experimented society: interventions, social science, and the failure of post-conflict reconstruction in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper critically examines the shortcomings of post-conflict reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021, arguing that an overemphasis on measurable results and causal inference led to overly narrow, community-driven development interventions that failed to appreciate the complex political realities of the country. While these interventions espoused community control, they were in fact the result of a top-down approach reminiscent of earlier state-building efforts, neglected the importance of customary authority structures, and treated Afghanistan as a blank slate for experimentation. Such community-based programmes also lead to a myopic focus on quantifiable metrics at the expense of political considerations, reflecting a broader methodological bias in development studies exemplified by the popularity of randomized controlled trials. Drawing on extensive field observations, the paper contends that such programmes worked against the grain of Afghan society and paradoxically undermined the legitimacy and effectiveness of local governance institutions. The paper concludes by advocating a more holistic, adaptive, and politically informed approach to grassroots development in conflictaffected regions—one that empowers authentic local ownership, aligns with endogenous social and political structures, and grapples with the messy realities of fostering legitimate governance in fragile contexts. The hard-earned lessons from Afghanistan’s recent past should prompt a fundamental rethinking of what constitutes effective development assistance in post-conflict environments.
- Topic:
- Development, Governance, Reconstruction, and Post-Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
38. CTC Sentinel: January 2024 Issue
- Author:
- Haroun Rahimi, Andrew Watkins, Gabriel Weimann, Alexander T. Pack, and Rachel Sulciner
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In the feature article, Haroun Rahimi and Andrew Watkins assess Taliban rule two and a half years into their renewed control of Afghanistan. They write: “Since their 2021 takeover, the Taliban have consolidated control over an impoverished and austere postwar Afghanistan. Since their victory, the Taliban’s emir has reasserted his status as a ‘supreme leader’ and oriented domestic policy in favor of highly conservative constituencies—which has revealed deep differences among their leadership of visions for the future of the Afghan state and society and how authority is divided among themselves. Yet, the Taliban have persistently prioritized the cohesion of their movement and governing apparatus. This trajectory has earned condemnation from Western states and prompted caution in the entire world’s engagement, which has in turn fueled Taliban motivations to reject foreign demands. After two and a half years of rule, the Taliban’s domestic agenda has become intertwined with their foreign relations impasse.” Gabriel Weimann, Alexander Pack, Rachel Sulciner, Joelle Scheinin, Gal Rapaport, and David Diaz write that “with the arrival and rapid adoption of sophisticated deep-learning models such as ChatGPT, there is growing concern that terrorists and violent extremists could use these tools to enhance their operations online and in the real world. Large language models have the potential to enable terrorists to learn, plan, and propagate their activities with greater efficiency, accuracy, and impact than ever before.” The authors offer “an early exploration of how these large language models could be exploited by terrorists or other violent extremists … to support their efforts in training, conducting operational planning, and developing propaganda.” Georgia Gilroy decodes al-Shabaab’s social media strategy, outlining the “controlled, adaptive, and coordinated approach the terrorist group takes to its online behavior.” She writes that the group’s “continued resilience, even in the face of mounting counterinsurgency efforts, is underpinned by its sophisticated communications architecture.” Christian Jokinen assesses whether left-wing terrorism is making a comeback in Germany in a case study of the violent left-wing Engel – Guntermann network. He writes that “the recent concerning trend among German left-wing extremists is toward greater violence and transnationalism.”
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Taliban, Violent Extremism, Artificial Intelligence, Leftist Politics, and Al-Shabaab
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, South America, Germany, and Global Focus
39. CTC Sentinel: May 2024 Issue
- Author:
- Amira Jadoon, Abdul Sayed, Lucas Webber, Riccardo Valle, and Paul Cruickshank
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In the wake of Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) attack on March 22 in Moscow and a wave of thwarted plots by the group in Europe, there is growing concern about the international terror threat the network poses. In the feature article, Amira Jadoon, Abdul Sayed, Lucas Webber, and Riccardo Valle assess that “ISK’s nearly decade-long presence in its traditional strongholds of Afghanistan and Pakistan, coupled with its expanding reach and appeal among Central Asian populations and its prioritization of inspiring and coordinating transnational attacks as part of its growth strategy, underscores the multifaceted and evolving nature of the threat posed by this resilient terrorist organization … Despite ISK’s recent decline in attacks in Afghanistan, the group retains the determination and capacity to conduct destabilizing high-profile attacks in multiple countries. The group remains resilient, but more worryingly, it has learned to adapt its strategy and tactics to fit evolving dynamics, and exploit local, regional, and global grievances and conflicts.” Our interview is with Ahmad Zia Saraj who served as the General Director of the National Directorate of Security (NDS) of Afghanistan between September 2019 until the fall of Kabul on August 15, 2021. He recounts this turbulent period and the lessons learned. He warns that by using end-to-end-encryption, ISK can recruit, exchange information swiftly, plan, and execute international attacks. “Encrypted messaging apps have helped terrorists speed up operations, enhance operational security, save time, save travel costs, and to plan and execute and even monitor attacks in real time,” he says. “The NDS noticed that a newly recruited fighter does not need to physically attend a training camp to learn how to construct a bomb or how to target the enemy. All this can be done via a smart phone with less risk of exposure. Advancing technology has made it possible for someone to be trained in terrorist tactics in any part of the world, regardless of borders or travel restrictions. A terrorist in Afghanistan or Iraq can easily train another one in any part of the world.” Finally, Pete Simi, Gina Ligon, Seamus Hughes, and Natalie Standridge quantify the rising threats to public officials in the United States by reviewing a decade of federal data. They write that: “A review of federal charges for the past decade highlights that the number of threats to public officials is growing. While 2013-2016 had an average of 38 federal charges per year, that number sharply increased to an average of 62 charges per year between 2017-2022. Across the time series, ideologically motivated threats, on average, accounted for almost half of the cases, and the portion steadily increased year over year. A preliminary review of cases from 2023 and 2024 shows that the number of federal prosecutions is on pace to hit new record highs. The rising threat level may produce significant consequences for the U.S. democratic system of governance.”
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Terrorism, Islamic State, Encryption, and Threat Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, North America, and United States of America
40. The World’s Humanitarian, Economic, and Political Engagement with Afghanistan
- Author:
- Paul Fishstein and Aman Farahi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The August 2021 fall of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and its replacement by the Taliban ended a two decade chapter of economic and social development. On top of an already weak economy reeling from COVID-19 and a multi-year drought, the overnight cutoff of most Western aid, freezing of foreign reserve funds, and effective severing of Afghanistan’s links with the global financial system plunged Afghanistan into multiple and overlapping humanitarian, economic, financial, and political crises of almost incomprehensible proportions. As of December 2021, 98 percent of the population lacked sufficient food and 90 percent were projected to be living in poverty. By summer 2022, the economy had shrunk by 20-30 percent. Afghanistan faces a daunting array of immediate security, humanitarian, and long-term development challenges. The Taliban’s restrictive social policies and refusal to move towards an inclusive government and the charged political environment dictates much of what can or cannot be done by the international community. The West’s central challenge is at once both moral and political: trying to walk a fine line between delivering humanitarian and economic assistance to relieve some of the effects of sanctions and isolation and help the Afghan people, while avoiding even the appearance of endorsing or legitimizing the Taliban. Workarounds so far have included re-purposing the World Bank-administered Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund, previously the main vehicle for funding Afghan government operations, to channel funding through United Nations (UN) agencies to non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to provide feeding, health, education, and other services. This paper highlights the significant challenges for the international community, among them: Relationship management Working with or alongside the Taliban Who performs the functions of the state? Channeling support away from the DFA and directly through the UN and NGOs can be effective for certain types of services (e.g., health, education), but this has its limits. International community cohesion, coherence, and capacity Finally, the authors highlight a number of recommendations, divided roughly into policy and operational considerations, for how, if not to resolve the impasse, to at least mitigate or get around it. These 14 recommendations assume that regardless of the Taliban’s distasteful policies and moral and technical shortcomings, the collapse of their rule would not be in anyone’s interest. There is no one to replace them, and the chaos and fragmentation that would follow would be far worse.
- Topic:
- Taliban, Afghanistan, Economy, Engagement, Humanitarian Crisis, and Humanitarian Response
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and Global Focus