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1401. Afghanistan: Lessons learned from a Post-War Situation

Author:
Anders Tang Friborg
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The key challenge in the Afghan post-war situation has been how to re-establish a sovereign and effective state structure in a country affected by more than two decades of conflict and war. Since the fall of the Taliban, Afghanistan has been facing one of the most comprehensive state-building exercises in recent years. Many of the state institutions were formally in place for the Karzai government, but the capacity was limited and they were competing with various parallel command structures. The re-establishment of a state can be analysed along many different dimensions, but three overall categories have been chosen to structure this paper: (i) the authority and control over the use of force throughout the entire territory of the state; (ii) the establishment of a legitimate government with executive powers at central and local level, and an independent judicial system; and (iii) the authority to regulate the economic resources of the country.
Topic:
Security and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1402. Security Sector Transformation in Afghanistan

Author:
Mark Sedra
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The U.S.-led Coalition's swift victory over the Taliban regime in October 2001 created a security vacuum across Afghanistan that the international community was unprepared to fill. Winning the peace in Afghanistan has proven to be a much more complex, costly, and protracted endeavour than winning the war, an imposing burden that has severely tested the resolve of the international donor community. With only 11,000-13,000 Coalition troops mandated to eradicate the last remnants of al-Qaeda an the Taliban in the south and a limited NATO presence of 6,000 troops deployed in the capital to insulate the fledgling political process, the onus for maintaining security in the country fell on the Afghan government and its fledgling security forces. After 23 years of civil war the country's security sector was in a state of disarray, its infrastructure destroyed, resources limited, and facing a shortage of human capacity. To bolster Afghanistan's beleaguered security institutions and ensure they conform to international standards, the major donors engaged in the country launched a security sector reform (SSR) process. Security sector transformation rather than reform seems more appropriate to describe the task of creating efficient, effective, and democratically accountable security forces in Afghanistan, for the bulk of the country's formal security apparatus ceased to function over a decade ago. In spite of the massive challenges that face program, it has been portrayed as the primary means to redress Afghanistan's immediate security woes. What by its very nature is a gradual, long-term process has been thrust into the position as short-term panacea.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and NATO
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Taliban

1403. A Way Out of the Mesopotamian Morass? The Case for a Partitioned Iraq

Author:
Ivan Eland
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
The United States has plunged into an Iraqi swamp. The swashbuckling victory in the first Gulf War led to the most egregious sin that can be made in the military affairs—hubris and underestimation of the enemy. The U.S. and Soviet superpowers made the same mistake respectively in Vietnam in the sixties and seventies and Afghanistan in the eighties. But as those quagmires fade from memory, government officials apparently have to relearn the same lessons.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Soviet Union, and Vietnam

1404. From Warlords to Peacelords - Local Leadership Capacity in Peace Processes

Author:
Gordon Peake, Cathy Gormley-Heenan, and Mari Fitzduff
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Initiative on Conflict Resolution and Ethnicity
Abstract:
The starting point for the research upon which the report is based has been our interest in the phenomenon of political leaders in conflict and peace building. In particular, this report has considered leadership in three countries that have attracted infamy for the protracted nature of their brutal conflicts - Afghanistan, Kosovo and Sierra Leone. Each country is now considered to have emerged from conflict and to be at formal 'peace'.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, Kosovo, and Sierra Leone

1405. War Economies in a Regional Context: Overcoming the Challenges of Transformation

Author:
Kaysie Studdard
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
This policy report distills key findings from research commissioned by the International Peace Academy's program on Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (EACW) on the regional dimensions of war economies and the challenges they pose for peacemaking and peacebuilding. Drawing from analytical research as well as case studies of Afghanistan in Central Asia, Sierra Leone in West Africa, and Bosnia and Herzegovina in Southeast Europe, a number of key issues concerning the political economy of regional war economies and lessons for more effective peacebuilding were identified: The notion that internal conflicts have economic "spill over" or "spill into" effects on neighboring states needs to be extended and deepened. Policymakers should work to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the interstate impacts of civil conflict that gives greater weight to systemic cross-border networks and less to potentially 'one-off' transborder phenomena.
Topic:
Economics, Peace Studies, Regional Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, Central Asia, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and West Africa

1406. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Uninhabited Combat Aerial Vehicles

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Lessons from recent combat experiences in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq have shown that UAVs can provide vastly improved acquisition and more rapid dissemination of Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) data. They are one of the principal contributors to successful outcomes for the United States. in these campaigns. The benefits and promise offered by UAVs in surveillance, targeting and attack have captured the attention of senior military and civilian officials in the Defense Department (DoD), members of Congress, and the public alike. Indeed, these recent combat operations appear to indicate that unmanned air systems have at last come of age.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Kosovo

1407. Securing Afghanistan: Entering a Make-or-Break Phase?

Author:
T.X Hammes and Robert B. Oakley
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
To appreciate Afghanistan's predicament, it is essential to understand that all Afghan politics are tribal. Thus, while Afghans share a genuine national identity, their immediate concern in any political process is to advance or preserve the welfare of their ethnic or extended family group. Further, since the Russians and British artificially imposed the country's international borders, the tribes are not wholly contained within Afghanistan. They straddle the borders with surrounding nations. Thus, tribal politics are also international politics.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, and Middle East

1408. Disappearing the Dead: Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Idea of a "New Warfare

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Among those endeavors that a state or a people may undertake, none is more terrible than war. None has repercussions more far-reaching or profound. Thus, a grave responsibility to one's own nation and to the global community attends any decision to go to war. And part of this responsibility is to estimate and gauge the effects of war, including the collateral damage and civilian casualties that it incurs.
Topic:
Defense Policy and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Central Asia, and Middle East

1409. Rethinking Rural Livelihoods in Afghanistan

Author:
Jo Grace and Adam Pain
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
This synthesis report presents the findings of the first 18 months of research from AREU’s Rural Livelihoods Monitoring Research Programme. The project gathered village and household information from 390 households across seven provinces with an aim to improve the understanding of rural livelihoods in Afghanistan and the monitoring and evaluation capacity of NGOs. The report offers conclusions and recommendations regarding: livelihoods diversity, non-farm labour, labour migration, indebtedness, gender, health, agriculture and social protection.
Topic:
Agriculture, Gender Issues, Health, NGOs, Rural, and Labor Rights
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

1410. Looking for Peace on the Pastures: Rural Land Relations in Afghanistan

Author:
Liz Alden Wily
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
This paper synthesises the lessons learned from a study of land tenure relations in Bamiyan, Badakhshan and Faryab Provinces. It also offers recommendations on how to move forward from the existing muddle of land policy and law to engage in "learning by doing" projects aimed at mitigating conflict on communal land.
Topic:
Law, Rural, Land, and Community
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

1411. From Yugoslavia to Iraq: Russia's Foreign Policy and the Effects of Multipolarity

Author:
Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to analyze the evolution and political implications of Russia's doctrine of multipolarity. Multipolarity emerged as one of the earliest doctrinal solutions to the post-Soviet Russian foreign policy dilemma, and has remained essential for Russia's strategic behavior since the early 1990s. The multipolarity doctrine describes the post-Cold War world and Russia's place in it. As I argue in this study, Russian “multipolarity” – (the idea of the multipolar world; the vision of Russia as one of its 'poles'; and the understanding of the principles of international politics in the strict terms of realpolitik) is not an ideological resource for Russia's foreign policy but rather, a result of learning how to secure the country' s international status given the scarcity of foreign policy resources available, and the drastic change in the international institutional position of Russia. To sum up the central argument of this study: the multipolarity of Russian foreign policy – both a doctrinal strategy and foreign policy practice – has evolved as a template-like foreign policy approach to solve Russia's strategic dilemma since the demise of the Soviet Union: how to secure its place in the new international structure and compensate for the loss of the international arrangements that disappeared with Soviet might and the bipolar international system as a whole.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Soviet Union, and Balkans

1412. At a Crossroads in Afghanistan: Should the United States Be Engaged in Nation Building?

Author:
Subodh Atal
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Despite progress in the return of refugees and the prevention of humanitarian disasters, stability in Afghanistan is threatened by ethnic tension, feuding warlords, and violence perpetrated by regrouping elements of the Taliban and their allies. The United States is being asked to increase its level of commitment to rebuilding Afghanistan as a means of stabilizing the country, even as American troops battle the resurgent Islamic extremists who operate along the Afghan-Pakistan border.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, America, Middle East, Taliban, and Arabia

1413. Mini-Nukes and Preemptive Policy: A Dangerous Combination

Author:
Charles V. Peña
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Currently, the United States relies on conventional bunker-busting bombs—such as the GBU-28, which was used in both Afghanistan and Iraq—to destroy hardened, underground targets. Legislation is pending in Congress that would provide funding for research—but not engineering or development—for low-yield, earth-penetrating nuclear weapons for targets that cannot be destroyed by conventional bunker busters.
Topic:
Terrorism, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq

1414. Special Policy Forum Report: War on Terror -- A Perspective from Afghanistan

Author:
Abdullah Abdullah
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 14, 2003, Afghan foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Before serving as foreign minister, Dr. Abdullah was heavily involved in discussions on Afghanistan's future government. Previously, he was chief spokesman and deputy foreign minister of the Northern Alliance. Born to a Pashtun father and Tajik mother, he is also a trained medical doctor, serving at the Sayyed Jamaluddin-i-Afghani Eye Hospital for Afghan refugees in Peshawar, Pakistan.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1415. Criminal Enterprise in the Political Economy of Middle Eastern Terrorism

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
At least five terrorist suspects who entered the United States illegally from Canada during the Christmas holidays are now the subjects of an international manhunt. The suspects' international travel was apparently facilitated by Pakistani criminal elements engaged in the production of false documents, including forged visas and passports. The nexus between criminal and terrorist activity is not new. Indeed, international terrorism is facilitated and financed by an array of states, groups, fronts, individuals, businesses, banks, criminal enterprises, and nominally humanitarian organizations. Since the attacks of September 11, experts and decisionmakers have focused much attention on charitable and humanitarian organizations, as well as official and unofficial banking systems in the network of terrorist financing. The political economy of terrorism, however, relies just as heavily on legitimate businesses and, increasingly, criminal activity.
Topic:
Security, Political Economy, and Religion
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Taliban, Arab Countries, Syria, and North America

1416. Chechnya Weekly: Putin Leveling Accusations at US Officials?

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In a remarkably under reported statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin has apparently accused lower echelon U.S. government officials of meeting with known Chechen terrorists. On September 20, a few days before flying to the United States for his summit meeting with President George W. Bush, Putin met with several U.S. television journalists. Asked about Chechnya, the Russian president gave a long answer that mostly repeated points that he and his spokesmen have made before. But toward the end of his response he said the following (as translated by Chechnya Weekly from the text placed on the official website Kremlin.ru): “The United States has now voted in the Security Council in favor of recognizing several individuals as international terrorists. The State Department has announced that it has included several figures in its list of international terrorists. But unfortunately we know that on the executive level there are continuing attempts at contacts with some people under the pretense that what's happening is only work with the opposition. Even with people who are included on the United Nations list. These people come, say that they are 'political activists' and present them- selves in all sorts of guises. But I assure you, I know about this precisely—they are maintaining connections with their allies in Afghanistan, including those who have gone there from the Northern Caucasus of Russia and who are fighting with arms in their hands against American soldiers. Such absurdities on the working level must be stopped, the sooner the better.”
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and North Caucasus

1417. Chechnya Weekly: No Evidence of Chechens in Afghanistan

Author:
Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Have Chechen separatist guerrillas been fighting against the United States and its allies in places such as Iraq or Afghanistan—and if so, how many have been captured or killed? The U.S. government has been strikingly passive in seeking to learn (or, at least, in publicly disclosing) the answer to that question. Chechnya Weekly began pressing for a precise, concrete answer months ago, but we have yet to get one from the White House, Pentagon, or State Department.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya

1418. New Priorities in South Asia

Author:
Frank G. II Wisner, Nicholas Platt, and Marshall M. Bouton
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
South Asia may be halfway around the globe from the United States, but in the age of the Internet and globalization, what happens there—as the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda tragically underscored—can affect all Americans. The challenge to U.S. policy over the medium term (through 2010) is to design and implement a stable and sustained approach that will solidify bilateral ties with three of the key countries of the region—India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan—and give the United States an opportunity to influence major regional developments. This report assesses the strengths and weaknesses of India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and recommends how U.S. policy can best take advantage of the opportunities while addressing the dangers that they present. Success in dealing with South Asia will require sustained and highlevel attention, sensitive diplomacy, a realistic view of what is possible, and, especially with Pakistan and Afghanistan, investment of substantial resources.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and India

1419. Afghanistan: Are We Losing the Peace?

Author:
Marshall Bouton, Frank G. Wisner, Nicholas Platt, Mahnaz Ispahani, and Dennis Kux
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Nineteen months after the defeat of the Taliban and its al-Qaeda allies, Afghanistan remains a long way from achieving the U.S. goal of a stable self-governing state that no longer serves as a haven for terrorists. Indeed, failure to stem deteriorating security conditions and to spur economic reconstruction could lead to a reversion to warlord dominated anarchy and mark a major defeat for the U.S. war on terrorism. To prevent this from happening, the Task Force recommends that the United States strengthen the hand of President Hamid Karzai and intensify support for security, diplomatic, and economic reconstruction in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia

1420. Afghanistan: The Constitutional Loya Jirga

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
When delegates to Afghanistan's Constitutional Loya Jirga assemble in Kabul on 13 December 2003, they will begin debating and ultimately deciding upon a draft document that is intended to establish a strong presidency while accommodating the other dominant figures at the country's centre. It is a constitution, however, that for the most part would fail to provide meaningful democratic governance, including power-sharing, a system of checks and balances, or mechanisms for increasing the representation of ethnic, regional and other minority groups. The manner in which the draft has been prepared and publicised, as well as its content, raise serious questions about whether it can become the first constitution in Afghanistan's history to command genuinely deep popular support and, therefore, contribute to national stability.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Kabul

1421. Iran: Discontent and Disarray

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Shirin Ebadi, a courageous human rights lawyer, has focused renewed attention on the deep divisions and tensions within Iran. How these work out, and how Iran defines its role in the world, will have a critical impact on a range of wider security issues, from Iraq and Afghanistan to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the future of nuclear non-proliferation.
Topic:
Security, Demographics, Development, Economics, Politics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, and Arabia

1422. Disarmament and Reintegration in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The domination of Afghanistan's political landscape by armed parties and individual commanders is still the principal obstacle to implementation of the political process that was agreed at the Bonn conference in late 2001. Without a credible process of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of former commanders and fighters into society (DR), it is inconceivable that any of the key elements of that political process - including the adoption of a new constitution, judicial reform, and elections - can be meaningfully implemented. More international engagement across the country - in the form of both security contributions and economic assistance - remains the essential ingredient.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

1423. Peacebuilding in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tackling conflict and providing security in Afghanistan requires a greater effort to deal with local disputes that frequently flare into violence and lead to wider problems. Although these attract less attention than the threat from the resurgent Taliban, they are important as they produce an environment of insecurity which destroys all quality of life for ordinary civilians and undermines the legitimacy of the Afghan Transitional Administration in Kabul. Local commanders often exploit these disputes to consolidate their positions, further weakening the authority of the central government.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Kabul

1424. Afghanistan: The Problem of Pashtun

Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Prospects for an enduring peace in Afghanistan are still fragile despite progress since the ouster of the Taliban in December 2001. A key obstacle is the perception of many ethnic Pashtuns that they lack meaningful representation in the central government, particularly in its security institutions. Other factors contributing to growing alienation from the Bonn political process include continued violence against Pashtuns in parts of the north and west, heavy-handed search operations and collaboration with abusive commanders by the U.S.-led Coalition, and impediments to trade in the southern and eastern provinces. Unless measures are taken to address these grievances and ensure that a more representative government emerges from the forthcoming election, there will be a greater likelihood of the political process ending in failure.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

1425. Afghanistan's Flawed Constitutional Process

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Afghanistan is stumbling on its way to a new constitution. The document that must express the values and aspirations of a people may lack widespread legitimacy because it has been drafted in a secretive and unaccountable manner. International efforts to promote public education and consultation have been inadequate. The Transitional Administration (TA) and the UN are now heading down a well-trodden path in Afghan history whereby a constitution is proclaimed but no one, let alone those in control of state power, has any incentive to respect it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

1426. Afghanistan: Women and Reconstruction

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The establishment of an Interim Administration for Afghanistan during the Bonn talks in December 2001 was heralded as offering Afghan women a chance to claim their place in public life and participate in the country's development after systemic exclusion under the Taliban. Creation of a Ministry of Women's Affairs, the commitment of substantial donor assistance to programs targeting women, and, most critically, the return of women to universities, schools, and government offices all portended a new day.
Topic:
Development, Gender Issues, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban

1427. Uzbekistan's Reform Program: Illusion or Reality?

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since October 2001, Uzbekistan has been a key ally of the U.S. in the military campaign in Afghanistan. A U.S. base has been established and a far-reaching Agreement on Strategic Partnership was signed in March 2002. Uzbekistan, however, sits uncomfortably in a campaign known as “Enduring Freedom.” It is one of the most authoritarian of the post-Soviet states, with a poor record on human rights and an economy that still owes much more to Soviet central planning than the market.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, and Uzbekistan

1428. Afghanistan: Judicial Reform and Transitional Justice

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Afghanistan's legal system has collapsed. Never strong to begin with, it has been nearly destroyed by 23 years of conflict and misrule. There are few trained lawyers, little physical infrastructure and no complete record of the country's laws. Under successive regimes, laws have been administered for mostly political ends with few protections of the rights of individuals to a fair trial. Although the country has signed up to most international agreements on human rights, abuses have been widespread, and military commanders have enjoyed impunity.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

1429. Through the Fog of Peace Building: Evaluating the Reconstruction of Afghanistan

Author:
Barnett Rubin, Abby Stoddard, and Humayan Hamidzada
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
A year and a half after the defeat of the Taliban, anger is rising in Afghanistan at the slow pace of reconstruction. Success in reconstruction means meeting goals, not fulfilling pledges or being generous. The overriding goal is enabling Afghans to build a country that contributes to, rather than threatens, their own and global security. As the government of Afghanistan becomes better organized and articulates both this goal and what is needed to reach it more clearly, it has become evident that donors underestimated the amount of assistance required. Initial pledges fell short even of underestimates of the needs and were far less than in other comparable cases. Initial disbursements, which in past cases have always exceeded subsequent ones, came relatively quickly and nearly met pledges, as donors have highlighted (see figure 1). But most of these disbursements went for emergency humanitarian needs, not reconstruction. Implementation of those reconstruction projects that have been funded has been exceedingly slow, leaving little to show on the ground. As of May 2003, donors reported that in 17 months they had completed reconstruction projects with a total expenditure of only $191 million, out of $2.1 billion pledged to reconstruction for the first twelve months. Furthermore, according to Afghan government figures, only 16 percent of the total disbursements (including for humanitarian purposes) had passed through channels controlled by the struggling Afghan government and had thus failed to build that government's capacity or legitimacy. The pervasive insecurity outside of Kabul prevented implementation of major projects and sapped the public's confidence in the new authorities. Failure to strengthen the government and provide security will doom the reconstruction effort even if contributions increase. The government has articulated an ambitious policy framework for reconstruction and asked for both reconstruction and security assistance. Success is possible, and at a modest cost. Failure by the US and other major states to respond will doom Afghanistan, the region, and the world to a repetition of anarchy that gave birth to the Taliban and refuge to al-Qaida.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban

1430. The Politics of Center-Periphery Relations in Afghanistan

Author:
Barnett Rubin and Helena Malikyar
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
The relationship of the central government of Afghanistan to the other units of government is in many ways a proxy for the relationship of state to society. It would not be so if the state were more institutionalized and in control of the territory and population of the country. But the current situation, where the direct administrative control of the government is largely limited to the capital city and environs, and in which the government relies on international support (“foreign” support to its opponents) to exercise that control, has precedents in other eras of Afghan history.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

1431. Good Intentions Will Not Pave The Road to Peace

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
The Afghan people have been promised a lot in the last two years. New rules for a new world would be written in their country. Regime change would deliver Afghans, finally, from oppression and violence, while a Marshall Plan would give them a chance to rebuild their lives.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

1432. The Stabilization Efforts in the Balkan -Seven Theses -

Author:
Bernd Papenkort
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
In the Balkans, the international community has made numerous costly efforts with the intention of laying the foundations for political stability and economic prosperity as well as giving the local population social perspectives. In view of recent developments in international politics (e.g. the fight against terrorism, the developments in Afghanistan) and political focal points such as the conflict between Israel and Palestine, we should, however, critically take stock of what has been achieved so far and consider measures of adjustment, where necessary. The following theses are food for thought, and I hope they will trigger a lively discussion.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, Non-Governmental Organization, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Israel, Eastern Europe, Palestine, and Balkans

1433. From Laeken to Copenhagen European defence: core documents

Author:
Jean-Yves Haine
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The year 2002 was characterised by the stabilisation of Afghanistan, the prospect of war in Iraq, the suicidal, deadly impasse in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and North Korea's declared nuclear proliferation. There was thus a significant deterioration in the international environment. In these conditions of growing uncertainty, in both the short and long term, the Union, which now extends to the borders of the Russian and Arab-Muslim worlds, appears as a haven of stability and peace. The peaceful reunification of the European continent that the enlargement of both the Union and the Atlantic Alliance represents will stand out as one of the positive events of 2002. Yet this pacification of Europe has taken place in a world that is still suffering the consequences of the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. To start with, the United States has developed a conception of its security that is both more sovereign and more comprehensive. The new National Security Strategy includes pre-emptive war among its ways of fighting terrorism and seems to favour coalitions of convenience rather than institutionalised alliances. There is no doubt that this attitude has raised questions in Europe and led to transatlantic difficulties. But this unilateralist fever early in the year gave way to more realistic, pragmatic attitudes with President Bush's speech to the UN on 12 September 2002 and the subsequent adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1441.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Israel, North Korea, Palestine, and United Nations

1434. Hidden Costs of War

Author:
William D. Hartung
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
The Bush administration's war on terrorism and its proposed military intervention in Iraq have sparked the steepest increases in military and security spending in two decades. Since September 11, 2001, the federal government has approved over $110 billion in increased military spending and military aid. Spending on national defense is slated to reach $399 billion in the Fiscal Year 2004 budget, and to rise to over $500 billion annually by the end of this decade. These vast sums do not include the costs of the ongoing war in Afghanistan or a war with Iraq. Steven Kosiak of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimates that only 5 to 10 percent of the Fiscal Year 2003 Pentagon budget is being set aside for anti-terror activities and homeland security.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Government, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East

1435. Sustaining Global Democratization: Nation Building and Intervention

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
This panel on global democratization is part of an ongoing ISD effort to focus policy debate on a topic of growing importance. The first in this series of panel discussions was held shortly after 9/11, and was entitled "Sustaining Global Democratization: a priority now more than ever". That title could serve well for this panel also, as the connected issues of democratization and nation building are more timely and urgent than ever. In the new National Security Strategy, the President commits the U.S. to "extend the benefits of freedom across the globe." Democratization is no longer on the fringes of the policy debate. Uppermost on the agenda of policy maker and analyst are the open questions relating to Afghanistan, Iraq and the West-Bank/Gaza. How our democracy promoting goals are to be pursued and achieved in these and other cases is far from clear. Panelists today and at subsequent forums will bring the benefit of their wide experience to these issues. The problems that we discuss are global in nature. Today's panel will for the most part focus on the Middle East. Other regions will be the focus of attention at subsequent forums.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Gaza

1436. You, The People: The United Nations, Transitional Administration, and State-Building

Author:
Simon Chesterman
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Transitional administrations represent the most complex operations attempted by the United Nations. The missions in Kosovo (1999—) and East Timor (1999–2002) are commonly seen as unique in the history of the United Nations. But they may also be seen as the latest in a series of operations that have involved the United Nations in 'state-building' activities, in which it has attempted to develop the institutions of government by assuming some or all of those sovereign powers on a temporary basis. Viewed in light of earlier UN operations, such as those in Namibia (1989–1990), Cambodia (1992–1993), and Eastern Slavonia (1996–1998), the idea that these exceptional circumstances may not recur is somewhat disingenuous. The need for policy research in this area was brought into sharp focus by the weighty but vague responsibilities assigned to the United Nations in Afghanistan (2002—) and its contested role in Iraq (2003—).
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Government, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Kosovo, Cambodia, Namibia, and Eastern Slavonia

1437. Iraq and Afghanistan - Administration's Supplemental Funding Request

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Two years ago, we responded to attacks on America by launching a global war against terrorism that has removed gathering threats to America and our allies and has liberated the Iraqi and Afghan people from oppression and fear.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, America, and Middle East

1438. Afghanistan: Seeds of Hope

Author:
David Johnson
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In 2000, an overwhelming 97 percent of Afghan girls did not attend school, and today only about 20 percent are literate. Tens of thousands of Afghan girls are now attending school for the first time in years.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

1439. State Building and Security in Afghanistan and the Region

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
In May 2003, Princeton University's Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD) convened a major international colloquium entitled, “State Building and Security in Afghanistan and the Region,” held in Bonn and Petersberg, Germany, which brought together diplomats, government officials, academics, policy experts, and field practitioners to examine international and local best practices relevant for state and security building in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Government, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Germany

1440. Stability and Viability in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
As post-Taliban Afghanistan struggles to build a viable and secure state under President Hamid Karzai, a clear and urgent need exists for the international community to assist Karzai's government in building enduring domestic institutions that support the promotion of democracy, while improving the stability and security of this Asian country. In March 2003, Princeton University's Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD) sponsored a colloquium entitled, “Stability and Viability in Afghanistan: Building A Viable And Effective Afghan State,” held in Triesenberg, Liechtenstein, which brought together diplomats, government officials, academics, policy experts, and field practitioners to examine international and local best practices relevant for state and security building in Afghanistan—to be considered policy recommendations by Afghans themselves.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Government, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban

1441. Biological Weapons Threats from the Former Soviet Union

Author:
Sonia Ben Ouagrham
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
Since September 11th, the American anthrax-laced letters and the war in Afghanistan have revived the interest of government officials, researchers and the general public to the state and security of former biological weapon (BW) facilities in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). In the popular press, reports of the general economic crisis and the political unrest that characterize FSU countries tend to emphasize the proliferation threat from these countries. Very little is said, however, about the nuances of this threat, its nature and degree of probability. Some reports tend to overestimate the number of employees at former BW facilities, thus inflating the risks of brain drain. While at the same time, other major sources of proliferation, such as the diversion of pathogens or the illicit transfer of specialized equipment are usually ignored. The present paper aims to characterize more precisely the threat stemming from former BW facilities in the FSU by determining what type of resources are available at former BW facilities and to what extent they are accessible to states of concern or terrorist groups. Although the existing open source information enables us to determine more clearly the categories of personnel, the type of equipment and material that pose the greatest proliferation threat, it does not measure properly the extent of the threat, i.e. an inventory of past and present facilities, expertise, equipment and material. Nevertheless, we can conclude that specialized knowledge, equipment and dangerous pathogens are available at former BW facilities in the FSU and can become accessible to state or non-state actors wishing to start or develop covert BW programs. This is particularly true in Central Asia, where economic and security factors, associated with the geographic characteristics of this region all converge to form a chain of proliferation: seekers of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their related technologies, potential suppliers and deliverers.
Topic:
Sovereignty and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, America, and Central Asia

1442. Post Conflict Governance: From Rubble to Reconstruction

Author:
Ryan J. Watson
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:
Global debate and media awareness of the complex issues involved with post-conflict governance are at an all-time high. With the reconstruction of the Balkans still leaving much left undone, the United States and much of the international community are seeking to balance continued intervention in Afghanistan with the emerging challenge of rebuilding Iraq.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Balkans

1443. How the Axis of Evil Metaphor Changes Iranian Images of the USA

Author:
Daniel Heradstveit and G. Matthew Bonham
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The respondents feared an American attack, and regarded their membership in «the Axis of Evil» as a stab in the back after Iranian help in Afghanistan. This demonisation was seen overwhelmingly in terms of American geopolitical designs, ignorance and downright irrationality – an expansionist superpower that is dangerously out of control. The WTC attack initially caused a strengthening of Iranian national unity and a more coherent foreign policy, but most of the respondents regard «the Axis of Evil» as killing the nascent dialogue with the USA stone dead and coming as a godsend to the conservatives and the ultras.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, America, Iran, and Middle East

1444. Un Passage À L'acte Improbable? Notes de recherche sur la trajectoire sociale de Zacarias Moussaoui

Author:
Stéphane Beaud and Olivier Masclet
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
French Politics, Culture Society
Institution:
Conference Group on French Politics Society
Abstract:
La France découvre, au lendemain des attentats du 11 septembre 2001 et de la guerre en Afghanistan, qu'elle a couvé en son sein des jeunes, nés ou élevés dans le pays, qui sont devenus des soldats de l'islamisme radical. Antoine Sfeir, directeur des Cahiers de l'Orient, estime à 150 le nombre de jeunes Français qui seraient impliqués dans les réseaux islamistes proches de Al Quaïda. Le plus connu d'entre eux, Zacarias Moussaoui, 33 ans, fiché depuis 1999 par la Direction de la Surveillance du Territoire (D.S.T.) comme "susceptible d'appartenir au Jihad international", est soupçonné d'être le vingtième pirate de l'air des attentats du 11 septembre 2001. Emprisonné aux États-Unis, il risque la peine de mort. On peut aussi citer Djamel Beghal, arrêté à Dubaï en juillet 2001, et son adjoint Kamel Daoudi, 27 ans, informaticien de formation, tous deux d'origine algérienne et également suspectés d'appartenir au même réseau Al Quaïda.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and France

1445. Refugees and the Myth of the Borderless World

Author:
William Maley, Greg Fry, Alan Dupont, Jean-Pierre Fonteyne, James Jupp, and Thuy Do
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
Refugees are quintessentially victims of the states system. If the moral justification of the territorial state is to provide an authority accountable for the well-being of a designated citizenry, then the failure of individual states to discharge this task creates a responsibility on those who otherwise benefit from the system of states to aid those who suffer persecution in the territories in which they are nominally owed a primary duty of care. The number of refugees and other displaced persons in the world is extremely small—roughly 0.3 per cent of the world's population—but each is a precious being, and the way they are treated is a measure not of their worth, but of the moral capacity of those who are in a position to come to their assistance. Life chances in the present world order are to a significant degree arbitrarily determined by the accident of birthplace. Afghans and Iraqis, strongly represented in the world's present refugee population, are not refugees as punishment for their own failings. And ministers and bureaucrats in Western countries, typically enjoying lives of considerable luxury, are rarely well-off in recognition of their outstanding moral virtues; many simply had the good luck to be born in the right countries. If there is a global refugee crisis, it is not in terms of the number of refugees, but in terms of the willingness of wealthy and prosperous peoples to reach out to them. In the following paragraphs, I shall do three things. First, I offer brief overviews of the meaning of 'refugee' and of the current state of the world's refugees. Second, I outline the framework of institutions and measures which has evolved for the management of refugee protection and refugee needs. In conclusion, I offer some observations on the challenges which the refugee regime faces, and on the steps which need to be taken to improve the refugees' positions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

1446. Reducing Collateral Damage to Indo-Pakistani Relations from the War on Terrorism

Author:
Polly Nayak
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
One of the major challenges facing Washington is how to limit unintended consequences of the war on terrorism in South Asia that could otherwise imperil both the U.S. counterterrorism strategy and the goal of preventing further conflict between India and Pakistan. Senior U.S. officials understandably hoped last fall that the war on terrorism would provide a new opportunity to draw in both India and Pakistan, to strengthen U.S. ties to each, and to nudge them to resolve their differences. Washington expected to expand cooperation with a rising India on a host of issues, while succoring a fragile Pakistan as a reward for abandoning an Afghan policy inimical to the war on terrorism.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, Washington, and India

1447. Should the War on Terrorism Target Iraq?

Author:
Michael E O'Hanlon and Philip H Gordon
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
As Afghan opposition groups and U.S. armed forces continue their successes in the war against the Taliban and al Qaeda, the American debate has quickly turned to the question of where the fight against terrorism should go next. In numerous public statements, President Bush has talked about a wide-ranging campaign against global terrorism. He has not committed to military operations against any other countries or terrorist organizations, but he has made it clear that the broader struggle against terrorism will be a long-lasting effort that could include the use of military force in regions beyond Afghanistan.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, and Taliban

1448. Rebuilding Afghanistan: Fantasy versus Reality

Author:
Anatol Lieven and Marina Ottaway
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan after the Taliban may easily turn into a quagmire for the international community, and the wrong kind of international strategies may easily worsen both its problems and ours. In particular, to begin with a grossly overambitious program of reconstruction risks acute disillusionment, international withdrawal, and a plunge into a new cycle of civil war and religious fanaticism.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Taliban

1449. Preventing New Afghanistans: A Regional Strategy for Reconstruction

Author:
Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Now is the time to learn the lessons of the past decade in Afghanistan: how it declined from a failing state into a cesspool drawing in Islamic malcontents from all over the world as well as those, like Osama bin Laden, who could bankroll them. If we fail to do so, our freedom may regularly be challenged by threats emerging from the heart of Eurasia, from Afghanistan itself, or from the neighboring states whose fates are being reshaped by their troublesome neighbor.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Eurasia

1450. Building Leverage in the Long War: Ensuring Intelligence Community Creativity in the Fight against Terrorism

Author:
James W. Harris
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Intelligence is often cited as a critical element in the war against terrorism and, indeed, it is. The U.S. intelligence community has a golden opportunity to develop the capabilities that will make a decisive difference in a war that may last a generation or more. The adversary will not disappear as the campaign to root the al-Qaeda out of Afghanistan winds down. It is essential that intelligence make the transition to the longer-term fight, and the time to begin that transition is at hand.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

1451. Fighting the War against Terrorism: Elite Forces, Yes; Conscripts, No

Author:
Doug Bandow
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The United States possesses the most powerful military on earth, one that has proved its potency in ousting the Taliban from power in Afghanistan. Yet, even as the military was gearing up to perform so well, some people were calling for a return to conscription or, more dramatically, for institution of mandatory national service for all young people.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Europe, and Taliban

1452. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey Has Been Successful As the Leader of the International Force in Afghanistan

Author:
Hilmi Akin Zorlu
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The creation of ISAF was authorized by UN Security Council Resolution 1386 in December 2001. The United Kingdom served as the first lead nation until Turkey took over command on June 20, 2002; the Turkish mandate was granted by Resolution 1413, which extended ISAF's authorization until December 20, 2002.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Turkey, and Middle East

1453. Untangling the Terror Web: Al-Qaeda is Not the Only Element

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On Thursday, October 24, the Federal Bureau of Investigation issued a new terrorist threat alert (this time warning of attacks on transportation systems), highlighting once more why attention has been focused on al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups since September 11, 2001. A year on, however, other Middle Eastern terrorist groups and state sponsors of terrorism still receive inconsistent attention despite a sharp rise in their activity. In fact, militant Islamist groups from al-Qaeda to Hamas interact and support one another in an international matrix of logistical, financial, and sometimes operational terrorist activity. Inattention to any one part of the web of militant Islamist terror undermines the effectiveness of measures taken against other parts of that web.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1454. Special Policy Forum Report: The War on Terrorism in Central and Southwest Asia

Author:
Ahmed Rashid
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although al-Qaeda and the Taliban no longer pose a military or political threat in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda cells are regrouping. This threat requires the response of special forces, intelligence, and commandos in order to uncover the terrorist cells and prevent another September 11-style attack. But the main threat posed by terrorism in Central Asia today is the enormous domestic political crisis that has erupted throughout the region.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban

1455. The Future of the Multinational Force and Observers in Sinai

Author:
Gal Luft
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Growing U.S. military involvement in new locations such as Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and the Philippines has raised concerns in the Pentagon about overstretching the military and has prompted a call to reassess the future of America's long-standing contribution to peacekeeping missions worldwide. One of the missions at risk of being curtailed is the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) — an independent, international peacekeeping and verification organization established by Egypt and Israel to monitor the security arrangements of their 1979 peace treaty. The idea of downsizing the 900-man U.S. contingent in the Sinai Peninsula has been raised several times by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. "I do not believe that we still need our forces in the Sinai," he said in a recent public statement. But the timing of such a change — especially in light of the deterioration in Egyptian-Israeli relations since the beginning of the al-Aqsa intifada — is questionable. At a time when other voices are calling for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Saudi Arabia, a withdrawal from Sinai — even if only a reduction — could symbolize to many a decreasing U.S. interest in the region. It could also deny the recently violent Egyptian-Israeli-Palestinian border area an important and necessary cooling-off mechanism.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, America, Middle East, Israel, Uzbekistan, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula

1456. The United States and Russia in Central Asia: Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran

Author:
Fiona Hill
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Before 1991, the states of Central Asia were marginal backwaters, republics of the Soviet Union that played no major role in the Cold War relationship between the USSR and the United States, or in the Soviet Union's relationship with the principal regional powers of Turkey, Iran, and China. But, in the 1990s, the dissolution of the Soviet Union coincided with the re-discovery of the energy resources of the Caspian Sea, attracting a range of international oil companies including American majors to the region. Eventually, the Caspian Basin became a point of tension in U.S.-Russian relations. In addition, Central Asia emerged as a zone of conflict. Violent clashes erupted between ethnic groups in the region's Ferghana Valley. Civil war in Tajikistan, in 1992-1997, became entangled with war in Afghanistan. Faltering political and economic reforms, and mounting social problems provided a fertile ground for the germination of radical groups, the infiltration of foreign Islamic networks, and the spawning of militant organizations like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). The IMU first sought to overthrow the government of President Islam Karimov in Uzbekistan, later espoused greater ambitions for the creation of an Islamic caliphate (state) across Central Asia, and eventually joined forces with the Taliban in Afghanistan. With the events of September 11, 2001 and their roots in the terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan, Central Asia came to the forefront of U.S. attention.
Topic:
Cold War and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, Turkey, Asia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Taliban, and Soviet Union

1457. The Afghan Transitional Administration: Prospects and Perils

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Emergency Loya Jirga, or grand national assembly, held from 10 to 21 June 2002 in Kabul was a small but critical step in Afghanistan's political development. It was an opportunity to accord national legitimacy to the peace process begun at Bonn in November 2001 but it produced mixed results. From a narrow perspective, it was a success: representatives from across Afghanistan came together to elect, or rather anoint, a head of state, and the major armed factions kept their hats in the political ring rather than resort to violence. Given the last three decades of war and turmoil, this is significant.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

1458. Central Asia: Water and Conflict

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Competition for water is increasing in Central Asia at an alarming rate, adding tension to what is already an uneasy region. Agriculture is the mainstay of the region's economy, and thirsty crops such as cotton and rice require intensive irrigation. Water use has increased rapidly since the Central Asian states became independent in 1991 and is now at an unsustainable level. Irrigation systems have decayed so severely that half of all water never reaches crops, and several years of drought have cut available water by a fifth even as demand continues to soar. Efforts to rebuild Afghanistan will now put yet more strain on supplies.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, and Environment
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

1459. The Loya Jirga: One Small Step Forward?

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The immensity of the task of rebuilding Afghanistan into something resembling a coherent state cannot be over-estimated. Nearly three decades of political instability – including many years of savage warfare, the wholesale destruction of political and physical infrastructure and the inflammation of ethnic divisions – are layered on top of a nation that was among the poorest and weakest governed even in its "golden age" before King Zahir Shah was deposed in 1973. Afghanistan's transition back to a minimum level of political and economic stability will require many small but crucial steps to keep it on course.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

1460. Pakistan: The Dangers of Conventional Wisdom

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the continuing military campaign in Afghanistan, the international community has fundamentally shifted its policies toward Pakistan. The government of President Pervez Musharraf has been repeatedly praised as a key ally in the war against terrorism, and the U.S. alone has indicated that it will offer Pakistan more than one billion dollars in assistance. This briefing explores some of the most important dynamics underpinning the international community's revised approach to Pakistan and suggests that much of the conventional wisdom relies on dangerously faulty assumptions with important implications for future policy and regional security.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia

1461. The IMU and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir: Implications of the Afghanistan Campaign

Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001 and the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan have intensified the scrutiny of Islamist movements across Central Asia. Of such movements, two – the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami (“Party of Islamic Liberation”) – have been of greatest concern to the governments of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and to the broader international community.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan

1462. Center-periphery Relations in the Afghan State: Current Practices, Future Prospects

Author:
Barnett Rubin and Helena Malikyar
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
After decades of violence during which Afghanistan's weak institutions broke down even further, the Bonn agreement of December 5, 2001, provided elements of a road map for rebuilding governance and security in the common interest of the people of Afghanistan and the rest of the international community. The agreement provided a timetable for key political benchmarks to be met by the interim and transitional Afghan governments, such as the convening of the Emergency Loya Jirga, the appointment of the constitutional commission, the adoption of the constitution by another Loya Jirga, and general elections by June 2004.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

1463. The Defense Monitor: The Afghan Campaign One Year On

Author:
Mark Burgess
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
An Afghan Blitzkrieg? Sept. 11, 2001, transformed Afghanistan even more than it did America. The pariah state which harbored Osama bin Laden, and was the base camp for his al Qaeda network, immediately became the focus of the U.S. war against terrorism. The Afghan campaign began amid dire warnings of the dangers historically faced by foreign interlopers in the country that was center stage of central Asia's “great game” during the 19th and 20th centuries and that would become the first battlefield of an even greater one during the first year of the 21st. The experience of the British and the Soviets was held up as an example of what fate potentially awaited any American intervention in Afghanistan. A year later, such warnings seem overstated. Al Qaeda's camps in Afghanistan have been destroyed, the Taliban ousted, and an Afghan Transitional Government rules in their place. Meanwhile, life for the average Afghan is a considerably less nasty and brutish affair than it was a little over a year ago — all in short order and at a relatively low cost in human life. Such successes notwithstanding, the Afghan campaign is not yet over. It has not been without failings, some of which may return to haunt ongoing operations there. Similarly, some of the methods used to achieve this success, while effective in the short term, may yet prove polemical.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

1464. Crime, Terror and the Central Asia Drug Trade

Author:
Tamara Makarenko
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:
Over the last decade, opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan has been rising incrementally, culminating in a bumper crop in 1999 that produced approximately 80 percent of the global supply of illicit opium. Despite this predicament, the dynamics of the illicit drugs trade in Afghanistan has received little attention. Most media reports and government statements over-simplify the situation, making it appear as though the Taliban controlled the planting, cultivation, production and trafficking of all opiates. For example, The Times, in an article published in January 2000, reported “The Taliban rulers of Afghanistan have become the world's biggest producers and smugglers of hard drugs, overtaking rings in Colombia and Burma. They are now responsible for 95 per cent of all the heroin entering Britain.” Following the September 11 attacks, this responsibility was shared with Usama bin Laden and the Al-Qaeda network. British Prime Minister Tony Blair thus stated that the “arms the Taliban are buying today are paid for with the lives of young British people buying their drugs on British streets”, and subsequently added that the Taliban and Usama bin Laden “jointly exploited the drugs trade.” This view has also been propagated in the United States by leading news agencies. CNN, for example, explicitly reported that the Taliban both taxed and trafficked in narcotics, which were directly used to finance their military operations.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Britain, Afghanistan, Central Asia, Taliban, Colombia, and Burma

1465. The Federal Option for Afghanistan

Author:
Henry E. Hale
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The future security and stability of Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus–all struggling to deal with the simultaneous forces of terrorism, crime, narcotics, poverty, and disease–require a successful political and economic transformation in Afghanistan. A federal system was rejected in favor of aunitary state structure for Afghanistan, but the government of Hamid Karzai has faced great difficulty extending central authority much beyond Kabul. New questions about state-building there and elsewhere in the region should compel policymakers to reconsider federalism among a range of options for how best to organize this complex and diverse society. Although critics charge that a federal solution to state organization enhances social cleavages and fosters instability, federalism could be aviable and effective option if constructed to minimize the power and influence of the demographically dominant group.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Asia, and Kabul

1466. Russia's Southern Regions: Threats and Opportunities

Author:
Robert Orttung
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Instability in Russia's southern regions poses a threat to the continuation of the country's overall political and economic reform, and to regional stability in Central Eurasia. These regions, which already possess Russia's most fragile local economics, face a variety of problems emanating from the weak and failing states to their immediate south. Most visibly, there is the threat of terrorism, an increasing flow of illegal narcotics from producers in Afghanistan, an influx of contraband goods that wipe out Russian jobs, and illegal immigration. With few resources and extensive corruption among key officials, Russia's southern regions are poorly equipped to deal with these problems. Developing mutually beneficial trade links between Russia's southern regions and its neighbors in Central Asia, China, and Mongolia can mitigate instability and economic stagnation in this region, help to rebuild regional economies, generate income, and better enable governments to provide security and basic human services to their people. The West can support these developments as well as help combat organized crime, target corruption, and improve border security.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Mongolia, and Asia

1467. The Shape of Postwar South Asia

Author:
Jon P. Dorschner
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
The low priority that the United States placed on South Asia, led to the creation of a Taliban ruled terrorist safe haven in Afghanistan. To prevent such disasters in the future, the US must end its neglect, play an active role in the region, and commit sufficient energy and resources. The US must devise and implement an effective, well-funded, long-term strategy aimed at encouraging cooperation and regional integration. The strategy should stress clearly enunciated issues. These include: nonproliferation, demilitarization, regionally oriented economic development, poverty reduction, preservation of the environment, settling the Kashmir dispute, ending communal politics, and vitalizing the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and Kashmir

1468. Postwar Afghanistan – The Road From Here

Author:
Jon P. Dorschner
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
This is a short evaluation of the prospects for postwar reconstruction in Afghanistan. It will conclude with a number of policy recommendations regarding the possible role that the United States can play in the establishing of a viable Afghan state. It reflects my experience in the region and as an intelligence analyst and Foreign Service Officer.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

1469. The Case for U.S. Leadership in Rebuilding Afghanistan

Author:
Wali M. Osman
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
To further its strategic interests and national security, the United States has intervened in Afghanistan twice in less than two decades, first in the fight against the Soviets and then the Taliban. Now, as Afghans attempt to rebuild, American interests are at stake again. Before the Soviet takeover, Afghanistan had been moving slowly toward modernity, its development impeded by ethnic and tribal divisions kept in check by the monarchy's patronage system. Today, the country needs not only a new physical infrastructure but also institutions that will enable it to function as a modern economy, while politically accommodating its diverse and divided population. Democratization and economic development offer the best hope for stability, and specific steps can be taken to achieve these outcomes, but the country cannot move forward without increased security. Warlords contest the authority of the transitional government, which is itself critically divided. Beyond the issue of security, there is the urgent need for a more active commitment of U.S. resources and influence to the political and economic aspects of the reconstruction effort.
Topic:
International Cooperation and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and Taliban

1470. Managing Asia Pacific's Energy Dependence on the Middle East: Is There a Role for Central Asia?

Author:
Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Middle East is Asia Pacific's largest energy supplier, satisfying a demand for oil that must keep pace with the region's continued economic growth. This dependence on the Middle East has caused Asia Pacific to join the United States and other Western nations in the hunt for alternative suppliers. Central Asia, located between the Middle East and Asia Pacific and already an oil and gas exporter, is an attractive possibility. With energy production projected to rise rapidly over the next decade, Central Asia is poised to become a major player in the world energy market. But the land-locked region's options for transporting oil and gas to Asia Pacific markets are limited and problematic. Passage via pipeline east through China presents construction challenges; south through Iran, or through India and Pakistan via Afghanistan, is fraught with political difficulties. Not until geopolitics become more favorable to the south-bound options, or technologies make the China route possible, will Asia Pacific be able to tap the energy resources of Central Asia.
Topic:
Security and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

1471. International Terrorism and Europe

Author:
Thérèse Delpech
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The events of 11 September moved all Europeans, but were never understood for what they really were: the return of war to the most developed societies. Thus, the emotion quickly gave way to the belief that an isolated event had taken place, or at least one that would not be repeated on the same scale. The entry of the Americans and their Afghan allies into Kabul a month after the first air strikes reinforced this belief. Even if the military operations in Afghanistan were far from over then, the Europeans, more so than the Americans – who at that time still had to cope with a biological attack – began to lose their focus. The first reason for that short-lived emotion is that 11 September, even when perceived as an attack on the entire Western world, had not happened in Europe. There is also a widespread refusal in Europe, after the turbulent history of the previous century, to admit that European territory might again be vulnerable to serious threats. Lastly, European leaders were anxious not to frighten their populations or to strain relations with the Muslim minorities living in Europe.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, America, Europe, and Kabul

1472. Islamism: Roots and Prospects

Author:
Bechir Chourou
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The emergence of a political ideology based on Islam is commonly attributed to Jamal Eddine al-Afghani (1838-1898) of Afghanistan, Mohammad Abduh (1849-1905) of Egypt and Abdurrahman al-Kawakibi (1849-1902) of Syria. These early Muslim intellectuals are called "reformers," because they advocated a reversal of what they perceived in their era as a slow but inexorable decline of Islam. In their views, this could be accomplished only through a purification of the faith and a return to strict observance of the word of Allah (i.e. the Koran) and imitation of His prophet's behaviour (i.e. the Sunna). But at the same time, those thinkers believed that Muslims should not shun science and knowledge even if they came from non-Muslims. Thus saved from decay and decadence, the reformed and renovated Islam could inaugurate a period of renaissance (nahdha) that would allow it to join and participate in the economic and social transformations that were under-way in the West.
Topic:
Religion and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

1473. Coalition Dynamics in the War Against Terrorism

Author:
Ian O. Lesser
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
“Coalition” may be an inappropriate term to describe the constellation of state and non state actors cooperating in the global struggle against terrorism. The term coalition implies a certain agreement on strategy and objectives, short of a formal alliance. In fact, to the extent that NATO plays an active role in counter-terrorism, the current pattern of cooperation does have elements of an alliance. But the vast bulk of international cooperation on counter-terrorism, before and after September 11th, has involved the routine, sometimes intensive, coordination of intelligence, police and judicial activity. Contributions to large-scale military operations in Afghanistan, or elsewhere – although important to current objectives – are exceptional. Most counter-terrorism cooperation has been, and will almost certainly continue to be, of a more prosaic nature. The sheer range of activity – from the most intensive cooperation among European allies, to the ad hoc and often arms length relations with states such as Libya, Syria and Iran, not to mention Russia and China, makes it difficult to speak of a single grand coalition against terrorism.. The reality is a highly diverse pattern of cooperation; some limited, some extensive; some sustained, and some on a case-by-case basis.
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Libya, and Syria

1474. Filling the Vacuum: Prerequisites to Security in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
As a result of 23 years of war and civil conflict, and despite the recent removal of the Taliban and establishment of an Interim Authority, Afghanistan remains a country in chaos. Unless and until Afghanistan is at least modestly stable and secure, it will continue to represent a risk to the region and the world. The global order is still grappling with the question of failed states, but one lesson is certain: when governments fail, warlords, drug barons, or terrorists fill the vacuum. The only sure way to eliminate terrorism and extremism in Afghanistan is to support its leaders and people in their quest for internal stability and security, according to their own rich traditions and history.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, and Taliban

1475. Trans-Atlantic Relations: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Wolfgang Ischinger
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute at University of Wisconsin, Madison
Abstract:
I would like to share some observations about German-American relations, about Afghanistan, about Iraq and the war on terrorism, and about power and the global system. Where does Germany stand today? The recent elections in Germany have brought about a number of significant developments.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, America, Europe, and Germany

1476. Justice Under International Administration: Kosovo, East Timor and Afghanistan

Author:
Simon Chesterman
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
In the rare circumstances in which the United Nations administers a post-conflict territory, what law should be enforced? By whom? And, crucially, how should one resolve the potential dilemma between building capacity for sustainable local institutions and maintaining respect for international standards of justice? This report examines these questions through the experiences of United Nations administrations in Kosovo (1999— ) and East Timor (1999-2002) and the assistance mission in Afghanistan (2002— ). Practice in this area has, necessarily, been improvizational rather than principled. But it is possible to draw some broad lessons from these three experiments in judicial reconstruction First, the administration of justice should rank among the higher priorities of a post-conflict peace operation – certainly far higher than it is currently ranked in Afghanistan. There is a tendency on the part of international actors to conflate armed conflict and criminal activity more generally. Drawing a clearer distinction and being firm on violations of the law increases both the credibility of the international presence and the chances of a peace agreement holding. Failure to do this undermined the credibility of the international presence in Kosovo, and led to missed opportunities in East Timor. Secondly, in an immediate post-conflict environment lacking a functioning law enforcement and judicial system, rule of law functions may have to be entrusted to military personnel on a temporary basis. Recourse to the military for such functions is a last resort, but may be the only alternative to a legal vacuum. The law imposed in such circumstances should be simple and consistent. If it is not feasible to enforce the law of the land, martial law should be declared as a temporary measure, with military lawyers – especially if they come from different national contingents – agreeing upon a basic legal framework. Persons detained under such an ad hoc system should be transferred to civilian authorities as quickly as possible. Thirdly, once the security environment allows the process of civil reconstruction to begin, sustainability should generally take precedence over temporary standards in the administration of basic law and order. Whether internationalized processes are appropriate for the most serious crimes should be determined, where possible, through broad consultation with local actors.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, South Asia, Kosovo, and Southeast Asia

1477. Tiptoeing Through Afghanistan: The Future of UN State-Building

Author:
Simon Chesterman
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Afghanistan represents a radically different model in the panoply of UN peace operations. On paper it resembles earlier assistance missions that provided governance and development support to post-conflict societies. In practice, however, the UN mission remains intimately involved with the Afghan Transitional Administration and therefore with the peace process that put it in place. This disjunction between formal authority and practical influence poses a challenge not only for the specific operation in Afghanistan but also to accepted models of UN peace operations more generally. Most analyses of UN peace operations suggest that the more complex the political environment, the larger the amount of resources required to complete the mandate. On any such measure, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) faces an uphill battle. UNAMA is instead pursuing a high-risk strategy that requires two conceptual leaps from the normal mould of peace operations. The first is that it is possible to blur the normal distinction between negotiating a peace agreement and implementing it. The second is that the UN can make up for its small mandate and limited resources through exercising greater than normal political influence. There is widespread agreement among UNAMA and most of its Afghan partners that expansion of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) beyond Kabul would be an important stabilizing factor in this process. If it is to be done, it should be done urgently, while all parties are still buying into the Loya Jirga process. Given the reaction of the United States and potential troop-contributing nations, however, expansion now appears highly unlikely. Every UN mission and development programme now stresses the importance of local 'ownership'. This may be the first mission where some of the local population themselves are truly taking charge. Development, however, is notoriously supply- rather than demand-driven; donor countries are infamous for pledging one thing and delivering another. Agencies must therefore take this into account when constructing fictional budgetary targets that they know will not be met, making responsible financial planning still more difficult. Compounding these problems is confusion in Afghanistan as to what projects are actually going to be funded and when. This is partly caused by the refusal of some of the largest donors to have their money pooled into a trust fund for the whole of Afghanistan. The Emergency Loya Jirga was intended to encourage Afghans from all parts of the country to 'buy into the peace process'. This phrase was used metaphorically, but should also be understood literally. Encouraging Afghans to see the solutions to their problems as lying in the embryonic institutions of the state is good politics internationally. It is also Afghanistan's best chance for stability and relative prosperity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

1478. Middle East/Afghanistan — Al-Qaida Threat

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Intelligence assessments suggest that the bomb attack on French naval engineers in Karachi on May 8 bore the hallmarks of an al-Qaida operation. There is evidence to suggest that Osama bin Laden and other senior leaders are alive and regrouping, despite significant losses. The campaign against al-Qaida in Afghanistan and elsewhere is entering a new phase.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1479. Strange Victory: A critical appraisal of Operation Enduring Freedom and the Afghanistan war

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Why the inadvertent effects of the war are now overtaking the intended ones. Includes appendices addressing: the war’s impact on the humanitarian crisis; the missing political framework for American action; the source of power and the strategy of the Taliban; and the limits of the Bonn agreement and the challenges facing the interim government.
Topic:
Government, Treaties and Agreements, War, Taliban, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis, and Operation Enduring Freedom
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

1480. The Day the World Changed? Terrorism and World Order

Author:
Stuart Harris, William Maley, Amin Saikal, Richard Price, and Christian Reus-Smit
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
Change in world politics is generally thought to be more momentous than incremental. The power of social, political and economic structures, combined with habit, routine and sunk costs, favours continuity over change, and practices can persist long after their purpose has declined. It usually takes major shocks to the system 'cataclysmic events that expose the shortcomings of established practices' to license new forms of understanding, empower new sets of actors, and encourage new methods of ordering social, economic and political relations. The Great Depression and the Second World War were cataclysmic events of this import, as were the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union. The story of international relations is thus one of 'punctuated equilibria', not gradual evolution.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

1481. The Aid and Reconstruction Agenda for Afghanistan

Author:
Michael E. O'Hanlon
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
With the Taliban and al Qaeda largely defeated, a temporary coalition government taking power in Afghanistan, the Freedom Bridge near Uzbekistan finally open to relief efforts, and foreign donors promising significant aid more generally, the future looks increasingly promising for the Afghan people. But many challenges remain, even beyond the immediate priority of completing the military operation. Without rapid delivery of sufficient food, shelter, and medical supplies, Afghanistan could still experience a humanitarian catastrophe this winter. Without great care to shore up the coalition government, it could fail, just as state-building efforts have failed with disastrous consequences in places such as Angola, Rwanda, and Somalia in recent years. Without sufficient delivery of reconstruction aid, Afghanistan could remain mired in the same poverty and chaos that gave rise to the Taliban in the first place.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Uzbekistan, Rwanda, Somalia, and Angola

1482. In the War Against Terrorism, Where Goes Sudan?

Author:
Michael Rubin
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With attention focused on the bombings against Afghanistan, the most radical change in U.S. policy toward any other Muslim state since September 11 has been the accelerated rapprochement between the United States and Sudan, a country that hosted Osama bin Laden between 1991 and 1996. The quickly warming relations between Washington and Khartoum raise the question of "what price coalition?"
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1483. Gaining Arab Support Against Terrorism: The Role of the Organization of the Islamic Conference

Author:
Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the United States pursues its military operations, the Organization of the Islamic Conference's (OIC) foreign ministers are scheduled to meet in the Qatari capital of Doha on Wednesday. Among the important issues that are likely to be mooted are the antiterrorism coalition and the scope of its activities; the future of Afghanistan; and a working definition of terrorism. The OIC has before it an important opportunity to ally the Muslim world with the prevailing international consensus against using religion as a rationale for mass violence.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1484. Special Policy Report: Inside Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Michael Rubin, Michael Eisenstadt, and David Isbey
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 21, Michael Rubin, a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute who traveled to Afghanistan and Pakistan in 1997 and 2000; David Isbey, specialist correspondent for Jane's Intelligence Review and director of the Committee for a Free Afghanistan; and Michael Eisenstadt, senior fellow at The Washington Institute specializing in military affairs, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1485. Iran: Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution?

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
British foreign secretary Jack Straw arrives in Tehran today to "build alliances with every country that we can." In fact, Iran is the acid test of U.S. resolve to fulfill the goal set by President George Bush in his speech to Congress, namely, "From this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime." While Iran could be a useful ally vis-a-vis Afghanistan, there is no sign that Iran has any intention of stopping its support for terrorism. The objective of U.S. policy should be finding a way to take advantage of Iran's anti-Taliban sentiment while still pressing ahead with efforts to terminate Iran's own support for international terrorism.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1486. Russia's Southern Neighbors

Author:
Aleksandar D. Jovovic
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Institute for the study of Diplomacy hosted the spring 2001 meetings of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of Russian foreign policy towards its neighbors in Central Asia and the Caucasus. The potential for further conflict along Russia's periphery is real. Russia (experiencing an economic upswing and more assertive political leadership) is mired in a series of border problems as well as unresolved internal security challenges in Chechnya and continues to be a central actor in the entire Caucasus region. The civil war in Afghanistan continues to export Islamic extremism to Russia's important Central Asian neighbors. If a dramatic security downturn took shape in any of these borderlands, it would test the competence, political will, and strategic common sense of Putin and his team. Russia's government has already demonstrated its willingness to charge headlong into an internal conflict, and Putin's initial popularity has soared as a result. To provide a starting point for the discussion, the working group examined the following issues: External political and security challenges facing Russia in the near to medium term. Russia's interests and willingness to remain engaged in developments along its frontier. Prospects for strategic surprises and unanticipated events along Russia's southern border. Implications of Russia's behavior and region- al developments on US interests and capabilities.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Chechnya

1487. Post-Conflict Peace Operations and Governance in Afghanistan

Author:
Jeff Fischer
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Over the last two decades, post-conflict military and civilian interventions have occurred with increasing frequency and scope. By illustration, the first UN peacekeeping mission in 1948, the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), was mandated to supervise the truce of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war, and initially deployed 93 military observers. By contrast, the current international interventions in Kosovo (UNMIK) and East Timor (UNTEAT) are de facto governments, employing thousands of international and local staff with police and military services included in the portfolio.
Topic:
Government, International Cooperation, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, Israel, Arabia, and Kosovo

1488. Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 2001-2002

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The capacity and willingness of the international community to respond to humanitarian emergencies will continue to be stretched through December 2002. The overall number of people in need of emergency humanitarian assistance—now approximately 42 million—is likely to increase: Five ongoing emergencies—in Afghanistan, Burundi, Colombia, North Korea and Sudan—cause almost 20 million people to be in need of humanitarian assistance as internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees, or others in need in their home locations. All these emergencies show signs of worsening through 2002. In addition, humanitarian conditions may further deteriorate in populous countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DROC) or Indonesia. The total number of humanitarian emergencies—20—is down from 25 in January 2000. Of the current emergencies: Eleven are in countries experiencing internal conflict—Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Colombia, DROC, Indonesia, Russia/Chechnya, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Sudan, and Uganda. Two—in Iraq and North Korea—are due largely to severe government repression. The remaining six—in Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yugoslavia—are humanitarian emergencies that have entered the transitional stage beyond prolonged conflict, repressive government policies, and/or major natural disasters. The primary cause of the emergency in Tajikistan is drought. Several other countries currently experiencing humanitarian emergencies—Afghanistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, North Korea, Somalia, and Sudan—also are affected by major, persistent natural disasters.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, North Korea, and Somalia

1489. Second Annual Report

Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Commission considerably broadened its activities in its second full year, monitoring religious-freedom violations worldwide and increasing the number of countries it would study in depth. In July, the Commission wrote to the Secretary of State to recommend that Laos, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan be added to the list of “countries of particular concern” as provided for in the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (IRFA). It also recommended that Burma, China, Iran, Iraq, Sudan, the Milosevic regime in Serbia and the Taliban in Afghanistan remain on the list. In addition, it wrote that India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam are serious violators of religious freedom deserving careful State Department monitoring; it also expressed concerns about sectarian violence in Indonesia and Nigeria.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Taliban, and Vietnam

1490. Environmental Stress and Human Security in Northern Pakistan

Author:
Richard A. Matthew
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Environmental and social factors are generating high levels of conflict and insecurity in Northern Pakistan. Several factors make this case an important subject for analysis and discussion: (a) the strategic location of the region; (b) the potential for far-reaching and even global consequences should conflict spill across the borders and into countries such as Afghanistan and India; and (c) the similarities between this case and many others in the world. The article concludes with policy suggestions for both domestic and foreign parties concerned about the situation.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India

1491. Afghanistan — War Aims

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This piece focuses on the obstacles facing the US-led military campaign in Afghanistan. In order to defend the United States and its allies against further terrorist attacks, the US-led military campaign in Afghanistan seeks to destroy Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida organisation and topple the Taliban regime which hosts it. However, significant obstacles stand in the way of victory. Washington appears to have embarked upon a long-term simultaneous military, political, diplomatic and economic strategy to achieve its objectives in Afghanistan. However, given the absence of any credible pan-Afghan leaders and the deleterious effects of more than two decades of internecine warfare, this approach carries high risks. They include even greater political fragmentation of the country, continued war and possible regional destabilisation.
Topic:
Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East

1492. Afghanistan — Offensive Spring

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
UN High Commissioner for Refugees Ruud Lubbers yesterday began a visit to western Afghanistan to assess the country's deepening humanitarian crisis. Extreme drought and an intensification of the country's chronic war following a winter lull in fighting are likely to exacerbate famine and displacement of population. However, despite the emergence of a disaster which the international community will find difficult to ignore, UN sanctions against the Taliban, which controls 90% of the country, have done nothing either to curtail the movement's depredations against the population under its control or dampen its enthusiasm for a spring offensive. Peace for Afghanistan remains unrealistic as it enters its ninth year of civil war. Indeed, in the short term the total collapse of the country's agricultural system is likely to produce an influx of new recruits for this cycle of violence. However, evidence of a growing fractiousness within the Taliban could result in an emergence of a more moderate faction amenable both to dialogue with the international community and an accommodation with opposition forces.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Migration, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

1493. Special Policy Forum Report: An Islamist Internationale?, Transnational Links Among Islamist Radical Groups

Author:
Reuven Paz
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Israeli-Palestinian dispute is no longer the main issue on the Islamist agenda. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1990 and the development of national and Muslim-Christian disputes in various parts of Europe and central Asia assisted in the globalization of the Islamist struggle. In addition to the continuing troubles in Afghanistan and Kashmir, the 1990s have seen warfare in Bosnia, Kosovo, Chechnya, and parts of Indonesia (most prominently East Timor). All this brought about a transfer of the main Islamist struggle from the Arab world to the margins of the Middle East. Afghanistan has become the meeting point between the Arab Islamists and their Asian colleagues in the developing globalization of the Islamic radical struggle.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, Indonesia, Middle East, Arabia, and Kosovo

1494. NATO's Past, NATO's Future

Author:
John Lewis Gaddis
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization stands at a crossroads. Critical choices lie ahead that will determine its future. I begin my paper this way because it is customary to begin pronouncements on NATO with this kind of statement. Indeed papers and speeches on NATO have been beginning this way through the half-century of the alliance's existence - and yet NATO never quite reaches whatever crisis the speaker or writer has in mind. NATO seems to have a life of its own, which is remarkably detached from the shocks and surprises that dominate most of history, certainly Cold War history. And NATO's members, both actual and aspiring, seem bent on keeping it that way. So what is a crossroad anyway in historical terms? Most of my colleagues, I think, would say that it's a turning point: a moment at which it becomes clear that the status quo can no longer sustain itself, at which decisions have to be made about new courses of action, at which the results of those decisions shape what happens for years to come. The Cold War was full of such moments: the Korean War, Khrushchev's de-Stalinization speech, the Hungarian and Suez crises, the Berlin Wall, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Six Day War, the Tet offensive, Nixon's trip to China, the invasion of Afghanistan, the reunification of Germany, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the end of the Cold War itself. What strikes me as a historian, though, is how little impact these turning points had on NATO's history - even General deGaulle, who tried to turn himself personally into a turning point. The structure and purposes of the alliance today are not greatly different from what they were when NATO was founded. Which is to say that NATO's history, compared to that of most other Cold War institutions, is uneventful, bland, and even (let us be frank) a little dull. That very uneventfulness, though, is turning out to be one of the more significant aspects of Cold War history. It surprised the historians, who have been able to cite no other example of a multi-national alliance that has had the robustness, the durability, the continuity, some might say the apparent immortality, of this one. It has also surprised the international relations theorists, for it is a fundamental principle of their discipline that alliances form when nations balance against threats. It follows, then, that as threats dissipate, alliances should also - and yet this one shows no signs of doing so. An instrument of statecraft, which is what an alliance normally is, has in this instance come to be regarded as a fundamental interest of statecraft. That requires explanation, which is what I should like to attempt here.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, Germany, and Berlin