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202. Assessing Afghanistan’s 2019 Presidential Election
- Author:
- Colin Cookman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan’s current electoral system structures Afghan political dynamics, shapes election-day outcomes, and influences competition between organized interest groups in Afghanistan. Drawing on a unique set of results data from the September 2019 presidential election and past elections, this report analyzes where and how prospective Afghan voters were able to participate in the 2019 polls, the decision making behind and adjudication of disputes over which votes would be counted as valid, and how the available results compare with political trends evident in prior elections.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
203. Searching for COVID-19 Ceasefires: Conflict Zone Impacts, Needs, and Opportunities
- Author:
- Tyler Jess Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- On March 23, 2020, as COVID-19 was first appearing in many conflict-affected areas, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres issued a call for warring parties to cease hostilities and instead wage battle against the pandemic. Drawing on an examination of conflicts in Afghanistan, Colombia, Cameroon, Israel and Palestine, Libya, the Philippines, Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere—this report looks at how COVID-19 has affected conflict parties’ interests, positions, and capacities, and provides recommendation for how the international community leverage the pandemic to promote peace.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Conflict, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Ukraine, Israel, Libya, Philippines, Colombia, Palestine, Syria, Cameroon, and Global Focus
204. Bourgeois Jihad: Why Young, Middle-Class Afghans Join the Islamic State
- Author:
- Borhan Osman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Ever since the Islamic State in Khorasan Province emerged in Afghanistan in 2015, policymakers and security forces have regarded it as an “imported” group that can be defeated militarily. This approach, however, fails to take into account the long-standing and complex historical and sociological factors that make the group’s ideology appealing to young, urban Afghan men and women. Based on interviews with current and former members of ISKP, this report documents the push and pull factors prompting a steady stream of young Afghans to join and support ISKP.
- Topic:
- Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Jihad, and Middle Class
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
205. Service Delivery in Taliban-Influenced Areas of Afghanistan
- Author:
- Scott Smith
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In 2018 and 2019, USIP partnered with the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), a Kabul-based research and policy organization, in an effort to understand how the Taliban provide education, health, and other services to people who live in areas where they are the dominant power. Based on a series of studies conducted by AAN in five districts across the country, the report also examines the Taliban's motivations as a governing entity and their implications for a potential peace settlement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Taliban, Peace, and Services
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
206. Legislature and Legislative Elections in Afghanistan: An Analysis
- Author:
- A. Farid Tookhy
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan’s newest Wolesi Jirga—the lower house of the National Assembly—boasts a younger and more educated membership than those elected in either 2005 or 2010. Its representativeness, however, is uneven and problematic. This report offers a comparative profile of the Wolesi Jirgas elected in 2005, 2010, and 2018, highlighting issues salient to the reforms Afghanistan needs to undertake if it is to hold credible national elections that yield truly representative elected institutions.
- Topic:
- Governance, Reform, Democracy, and Legislation
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
207. Is a Plan B Needed to Save Afghanistan?
- Author:
- Marvin G. Weinbaum, Saad Mohseni, Anthony H. Cordesman, Muqaddesa Yourish, David Sedney, and Ali Jalali
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- The future of Afghanistan’s constitutionally liberal democratic system is very much at issue. On its survival rests the aspiration of the greatest number of its people, the deep investment of the international community in the country’s stability and wellbeing, and ultimately the security of the region and beyond. Negotiations are beginning in what is certain to be a lengthy process that may in the name of a compromise trade away social and economic gains realized over nearly two decades. Afghanistan has additionally to cope with the disengagement of foreign forces just at a time when their leverage militarily and diplomatically could be critical. In the absence of a verifiable ceasefire, the country confronts a prospect of exploding violence and possible descent into chaos. Can Afghanistan pull itself together to not only protect its achievements but to overcome past errors? Should Afghans and their international partners think about formulating a Plan B to save the republic while striving for true reconciliation with the insurgency? The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss these questions and more.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political stability, Domestic Politics, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States of America
208. Iran, Russia, Pakistan, and Afghanistan: Prospects and Potential Trajectories
- Author:
- Alex Vatanka, Amin Tarzi, Laila Bokhari, Madiha Afzai, and Fatemeh Aman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- As the United States continues to engage in peace talks with the Taliban, even as Washington considers its future military presence in Afghanistan, the country’s uncertain future provides an opportunity for regional power competition. Recent developments have laid the groundwork for coordination between Iran and Russia in this space, a cooperation which has implications for Iran’s rivalry with Pakistan. At stake in this interplay of regional interests are long-term geopolitical, military and economic interests that can be shaped for years to come. How might Iran approach the divergent and common interests of Iran, Russia and Pakistan in Afghanistan? What are Iran’s priorities, and where might opportunities emerge for cooperation or conflict? How might Iran balance these competing interests, and what will be the impact on the ground in Afghanistan? The Middle East Institute (MEI) is proud to host a group of experts to address these questions and more.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, Military Strategy, Geopolitics, Negotiation, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, Iran, and United States of America
209. The Coronavirus, the War on Terrorism, and the Taliban in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Rahman Ullah
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Review of Human Rights
- Institution:
- Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
- Abstract:
- In this focus essay I discuss how the Taliban understand coronavirus in Afghanistan. I make the point that they see it as a political event of significance for establishing their legitimacy, as well as to press the US and the Afghan government to come to their terms in the War on Terrorism.
- Topic:
- Prisons/Penal Systems, Taliban, War on Terror, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
210. Afghanistan’s Rising Civilian Death Toll Due to Airstrikes, 2017-2020
- Author:
- Neta C. Crawford
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- The United States military in 2017 chose to relax its rules of engagement for airstrikes in Afghanistan, which resulted in a massive increase in civilian casualties. From the last year of the Obama administration to the last full year of recorded data during the Trump administration, the number of civilians killed by U.S.-led airstrikes in Afghanistan increased by 330 percent. This report reveals the price that Afghan civilians have paid for all parties’ escalation of violence in their attempts to gain leverage in talks between the United States and the Taliban. The data demonstrates that, compared to the previous 10 years, there was a 95 percent increase in civilians killed by U.S. and allied forces’ airstrikes between 2017 and 2019. Further, during the period of intra-Afghan talks, the Afghan Air Force has killed more civilians than at any point in its history. In 2018 alone, 3,800 Afghan civilians were killed by airstrikes.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, Civilians, and Air Force
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
211. Urban Drivers of Political Violence
- Author:
- Antonio Sampaio
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Institute for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The demographic trend of urbanisation, while not a cause of conflict, exacerbates local tensions and weak governance. It also creates an urgent need to understand the policy challenges that exist in cities such as Mogadishu, Nairobi, Kabul and Karachi. The rate of growth of the urban population in the four countries covered by this study was above the global average for the 2015–20 period – and more than double the average in the cases of Kenya and Somalia. With the exception of Pakistan, these countries also registered higher urban population growth in 2018 than the average for fragile and conflict-affected countries, which was 3.2%. Typically built without formal land rights, lacking basic public services, and featuring low-quality housing in overcrowded conditions, slums are perhaps the most visible characteristic of cities undergoing rapid and unmanaged urbanisation. But they are not the only one. Cities located in or near areas where armed conflict is taking place also tend to be split by several dividing lines – between slums and the rest of the city, between ethnic groups, between licit and illicit (often criminal) economies, and between violent and safe areas. Whereas many of these divisions may be part of broader national problems, their geographical concentration in the limited confines of a city creates distinctly urban drivers of violence, and therefore requires tailored policies in response. These divisions, exacerbated by the rapid urbanisation process, have contributed to a decline in state authority – governmental capacity to enforce rules, monopoly over the use of force, taxation and other state prerogatives – at the municipal level. In cities, therefore, security and governance go hand in hand. The existence of organised armed groups able to replace key state functions makes the challenges in cities affected by armed conflict particularly urgent. This report sheds light on the ways in which cities contribute to the weakening of state authority, and aims to provide a basis for the formulation of better, more tailored policies.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Demographics, Urban, Housing, and Public Service
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, Somalia, Nairobi, Karachi, Kabul, and Mogadishu
212. R2P Monitor, Issue 50, 15 March 2020
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 50 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Central African Republic, Nigeria and Venezuela. The publication of the 50th issue of R2P Monitor coincides with the 15th anniversary of the adoption of R2P at the UN World Summit in 2005. The occasion of the 15th anniversary presents the international community with an opportunity to deepen global commitment to R2P and set an ambitious and practical vision to ensure consistent implementation in the years ahead.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Crisis Management, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso
213. R2P Monitor, Issue 53, 15 September 2020
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 53 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Mozambique, Burundi, Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Crisis Management, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso
214. R2P Monitor, Issue 52, 15 July 2020
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 52 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Burundi, Central African Republic, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- International Law, Conflict, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso
215. R2P Monitor, Issue 51, 15 May 2020
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 51 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
- Topic:
- International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Burundi, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso
216. R2P Monitor, Issue 54, 15 November 2020
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 54 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Côte d’Ivoire, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenia/Azerbaijan), Nigeria and South Sudan.
- Topic:
- International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Côte d'Ivoire, Global Focus, Burkina Faso, and Nagorno-Karabakh
217. Toppling Foreign Governments: The Logic of Regime Change, Melissa Willard-Foster
- Author:
- Alexander B. Downes
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- The rapid-fire overthrow of the theocratic Taliban regime in Afghanistan (2001) and Saddam Hussein’s Baathist dictatorship in Iraq (2003) by the United States—and the disastrous aftermaths of those and other recent interventions (such as the ouster of Libya’s Muammar el-Qaddafi in 2011)— has sparked popular and scholarly interest in the causes and consequences of foreign-imposed regime change (FIRC). One of the enduring puzzles about FIRCs is that, as highlighted in Melissa Willard-Foster’s terrific book Toppling Foreign Governments, three-quarters of them are carried out by great powers against minor powers in situations of extreme power asymmetry. “Though this asymmetry of power makes an imposed change feasible,” writes Willard-Foster, a political scientist at the University of Vermont, “it should also make that change unnecessary” because “militarily weak leaders who are bereft of allies should back down when confronted by stronger states” (pp. 2–3). The 133 regime changes in Willard-Foster’s study, however, testify that the weak regularly defy the strong—and pay the price for it.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Regime Change, and Political Science
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, and United States of America
218. The Trans-Himalayan ‘Quad,’ Beijing’s Territorialism, and India
- Author:
- Jagannath P. Panda
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Connectivity linkages between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and trans-Himalayan countries have taken on a new hue with the recent Himalayan ‘Quadrilateral’ meeting between China, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nepal (MOFA (PRC), July 27). Often referred to as a “handshake across the Himalayas,” China’s outreach in the region has been characterized by ‘comprehensive’ security agreements, infrastructure-oriented aid, enhanced focus on trade, public-private partnerships, and more recently, increased economic and security cooperation during the COVID-19 pandemic.[1] The geopolitics underlying China’s regional development initiatives, often connected with its crown jewel foreign policy project Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), have been highly concerning—not just for the countries involved, but also for neighboring middle powers like India, which have significant stakes in the region.[2] At the Himalayan Quad meeting, foreign ministers from all four countries deliberated on the need to enhance the BRI in the region through a “Health Silk Road”. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary and PRC President Xi Jinping’s ‘Community of a Shared Future for Humanity’ was cited as justification for facilitating a “common future with closely entwined interests,” and the ministers agreed to work towards enhancing connectivity initiatives to ensuring a steady flow of trade and transport corridors in the region and building multilateralism in the World Health Organization (WHO) to promote a “global community of health” (Xinhua, July 28).
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, India, Asia, and Nepal
219. Taking al Qaeda Seriously in Afghanistan: Policy Options for the United States
- Author:
- Hannan Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Despite limited numerical strength, al Qaeda exercises sufficient leverage over contending Taliban factions and continues to cultivate an enduring interest in attacking U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan. To break the al Qaeda-Taliban nexus, Washington must upgrade its verification metrics, and initiate COVID-19 recovery assistance that limits al Qaeda’s influence-building in Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, Taliban, Al Qaeda, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, South Asia, North America, and United States of America
220. Strategies for reforming Afghanistan’s illicit networks
- Author:
- Harris Samad and Fatima Salman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This report explores illicit networks in Afghanistan in the context of peacebuilding, democratic consolidation, and enhancing state capacity. Existing literature on the topic is sparse. While the 1990s saw study of the subject matter as tangential to international arms and drug trafficking policies, this period laid the foundation for renewed interest on the issue partially catalyzed by the 2001 US-led invasion. The 2008 global financial crisis shifted this lens toward one of countering the financing of terrorism strategies, corruption, and money laundering. The current day reflects a broadening of how illicit networks are analyzed beyond sector-specific policies; that is, the subject matter today encompasses more of the sectors that make it profitable, rather than focusing only on the most relevant component at a given time. Indeed, it is an internationalized issue, encompassing the smuggling of different goods and involving individuals of varying motivations and capacities within and without Afghanistan. Illicit networks can be broadly understood at three main levels: hyper-local, national, and international. At a hyper-local level, illicit networks represent a series of interpersonal relationships that facilitate the exchange of goods and compensation (taking many forms) beyond the reach of central law enforcement or political authority. Nationally, illicit networks comprise regional and countrywide patronage, criminal, and insurgent networks that organize and profiteer from the hyper-local relationships on a macro level. Internationally, actors with reach outside of the country move illicitly gained goods such as poppy, talc, methamphetamine, minerals, and others, as well as people via human trafficking, into trading hubs in Iran, Pakistan, and the Gulf for export into international markets. They then use poorly regulated financial institutions throughout the world (notably, Western and Gulf banking systems) to store funds, some of which make their way back to Afghanistan (though this phenomenon is particularly difficult to track). This report outlines several specific policy recommendations that will be necessary to combat the illicit networks in a manner that supports the durability of the ongoing peace process in Afghanistan and the continued consolidation of its fragile democratic institutions. These recommendations include the following: For Afghanistan: Provide a path for illicit actors into the formal economy; Generate political will and support; Establish high-level Afghan support for countering illicit trafficking; and upholding the rule of law; Implement enhanced border management; Expand the negotiating table to include more localized narratives; Strengthen and internationalize counter-threat finance strategies For the United States: Support a comprehensive economic settlement; Ensure future interoperability between Afghan and US security forces For regional stakeholders: Provide access to global markets to enhance regional trade integration; Cut off regional and international components of networks to reduce viability and profitability via neighborhood watchdogs, in conjunction with the United States
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Arms Trade, Trafficking, Financial Institutions, and Non-Traditional Threats
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
221. Withdrawal deadlines in war: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan
- Author:
- Paul D. Miller
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- At the outset of some of the most impactful wars in history, policymakers have assumed that the duration of conflict would be brief. Unfortunately, their assumptions were often wrong, as may wars like those in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan only grew more complicated with the passage of time. However, at least in these three cases, the reality of prolonged stalemate did not stop policymakers from setting withdrawal deadlines to assuage public anxieties and improve military performance. The pressures contributing to these consistent decisions across time are still relevant now. Therefore, as the United States currently seeks to deter great-power rivals and rogue regimes while combating terrorism, it is as important as ever to understand the roles and potential outcomes of withdrawal deadlines in war. In this new Atlantic Council report, Withdrawal Deadlines In War: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, Dr. Paul D. Miller examines the effect of withdrawal timetables on public opinion, military success, and policymakers’ goals across the three titular case studies. He finds that “Withdrawal timelines do not achieve the political benefits that policymakers desire, but they do incur the risks policymakers rightly fear.” In the face of prolonged and difficult military challenges, withdrawal deadlines can exacerbate outcomes at crucial moments, and thus policymakers must tread carefully.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, History, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, East Asia, and United States of America
222. Taking Stock of the Taliban’s Perspectives on Peace
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? On 29 February 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement meant to prompt peace talks between the militant group and the Afghan government. Many issues have delayed those talks, including widespread concerns about the Taliban’s willingness to compromise in a political settlement ending the war. Why does it matter? The U.S.-Taliban deal opened a fragile window of opportunity to settle the world’s deadliest conflict. But for talks among Afghans to progress, the Taliban will need to move beyond vague governing principles and put forth concrete negotiating positions on reconciliation, power sharing and governance. What should be done? The Taliban should swiftly determine clear negotiating positions and be prepared to debate – and eventually reach compromises – on these as intra-Afghan talks unfold. The U.S. and other donors should leverage prospects of post-transition assistance as encouragement, while the Afghan government and civil society should engage the group and its ideas.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Non State Actors, Taliban, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
223. Twelve Ideas to Make Intra-Afghan Negotiations Work
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Eighteen years after the U.S. war with Afghanistan’s Taliban began, all sides are taking the first formal steps toward a political settlement. From designating a neutral mediator to agreeing on “rules of the road”, Crisis Group lays out twelve prerequisites for keeping the talks going. What’s new? On 29 February, the U.S. and Taliban signed an agreement on a phased U.S. military drawdown, Taliban guarantees to sever ties with terrorist groups, and swift initiation of peace negotiations among Afghan parties to the war. These intra-Afghan negotiations could commence as soon as 10 March. Why does it matter? Intra-Afghan negotiations would be the first formal step to politically settle Afghanistan’s conflict since the U.S. toppled the Taliban regime in 2001. The U.S.-Taliban deal sets the stage for those talks, but it does not resolve issues among the Afghan parties that could prevent them from making progress. What should be done? All parties have crucial preparations to make, both before intra-Afghan negotiations start and during the talks’ early stages. Crisis Group has identified twelve key points that could make the difference between a successful beginning to a peace process and delays or early stagnation.
- Topic:
- War, Taliban, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
224. Cooperation Between the United States and Pakistan: What is the Future?
- Author:
- Riaz A. Khokhar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Within the Indo-Pacific region, the United States and Pakistan have sharply divergent strategic objectives. While American objectives have changed over time, focusing in recent years on rivalry with China, Pakistan’s strategic objective has remained constant—to maintain a balance of power with India. Yet Pakistan retains close strategic and economic ties with China, and the United States considers India an important strategic partner. Nevertheless, the two countries have worked together for nearly two decades toward two tactical goals—achieving a political settlement in Afghanistan and eliminating terrorism in South Asia. There is potential for them to cooperate more broadly, for example, increasing direct foreign investment to Pakistan and helping Islamabad balance its relations with the United States and China. Washington’s willingness to expand such cooperation will depend on Pakistan’s cooperation in fighting terrorism in the region.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Terrorism, Power Politics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, South Asia, India, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
225. Attitudes of NATO, SCO and CSTO Towards the Situation in Afghanistan After 2014
- Author:
- Lukasz Jurenczyk and Jildiz Nicharapova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- The main research question of the article is what attitude present the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Collective Security Treaty Organization towards Afghanistan after 2014? A number of detailed questions were also put to help to answer the main question. The article consists of eight chapters. The first chapter discusses the methodological assumptions of the article. Chapter two covers literature review and theoretical framework of the article. The following chapters include an analysis of the approach to Afghanistan of the three indicated international organizations. The article ends with conclusion that contain the main theses.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, North Atlantic, Middle East, and North America
226. When the Water Runs Dry: What is to be done with the 1.5 million settlers in the deserts of southwest Afghanistan when their livelihoods fail?
- Author:
- David Mansfield
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
- Abstract:
- It was following the fall of the Taliban regime that people began to encroach upon the deserts of south west Afghanistan and claim it as their own. After an initial investment in shallow wells that ran dry, increasing numbers of settlers began to use percussion drills to sink wells into the ground up to 130 metres in depth. Then, with affordable diesel generators and waterpumps imported from Pakistan and China these farmers transformed what was once rocky desert soil into productive agricultural land.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Water, Rural, and Land
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, Middle East, and Asia
227. Global Terrorism Index 2020: Measuring the impact of terrorism
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and other sources. Data for the GTD is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland. The GTD contains over 170,000 terrorist incidents for the period 1970 to 2019. In 2019, deaths from terrorism fell for the fifth consecutive year, after peaking in 2014. The total number of deaths fell by 15.5 per cent to 13,826. The fall in deaths was mirrored by a reduction in the impact of terrorism, with 103 countries recording an improvement on their GTI score, compared to 35 that recorded a deterioration. The full GTI score takes into account not only deaths, but also incidents, injuries, and property damage from terrorism, over a five-year period. The largest fall in the impact of terrorism occurred in Afghanistan, which recorded 1,654 fewer deaths from terrorism in 2018, a 22.4 per cent decrease from the prior year. However, Afghanistan remains the country most impacted by terrorism, after overtaking Iraq in 2018.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Economics, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Global Focus
228. Fitness OSINT: Identifying and tracking military and security personnel with fitness applications for intelligence gathering purposes
- Author:
- Cyprian Aleksander Kozera
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the possibility of tracking and identifying military and other security personnel, operating in secretive or restricted areas. Such exposure might have dire consequences from the perspective of counterintelligence or physical security. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and Social Media Intelligence methods and techniques were employed to gather and analyse information on security and military personnel and expose their activities on-line. The case studies presented in the article exemplify utilisation of the new “Suunto” fitness application for open-source-based intelligence research. Despite general Operational Security rules that require all personal data such as names, pictures and habits to be kept discreet, open-source based research with one of the most popular fitness applications allowed the identification of military personnel and government agents operating in Afghanistan, Mali, Syria or working at national military facilities. In a single case, it took the author less than thirty minutes to identify personal details of a US Army soldier in Afghanistan and a Special Forces officer in one of the European countries and obtain their home addresses and pictures of them and their families. The results of the research show how OSINT techniques concerning fitness applications are useful both for intelligence and counterintelligence, specifically for malicious and terrorist purposes, and how necessary it is to make fitness and other, supposedly personal, activity private, especially for those who carry out sensitive missions and work in a restricted or secretive environment.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and OSINT
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Syria, Mali, and Global Focus
229. Towards a structural understanding of powerbrokers in weak states: From militias to alliances
- Author:
- Sascha Bruchmann
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- This article aims to contribute to a theoretical understanding and discussion of conflict in weak states. More granular than one at the level of systemic phenomena, this analysis is focused on the actors, and the political structure in weak states. The article aims to improve on efforts to accurately describe these conflicts. After a theoretical introduction, the theorem on powerbroker systems will be applied on the case studies of Afghanistan, Lebanon and Mali. Building on this, the contours of the political system in each case will be highlighted by looking at the very origins of socio-political life. The working hypothesis is that powerbrokers, built on self-governing communities, ally and bandwagon according to Balance of Threat (BoT). This working hypothesis will be tested by examining a derived hypotheses per case study and identifying a) self-rule communities, b) the political-military nexus of powerbrokers within each system, and c) the behaviour of the related BoT alliance. Afghan, Lebanese and Malian powerbrokers all confirm the hypotheses. The powerbrokers originate in a context of self-governing communities trying to maintain their internal autonomy vis-a-vis a more centralised state and world system. During conflict, the communities band together against a perceived external threat, building neo-feudal political-military bodies. Pooling military resources under skilled leadership and privileged access to outside sponsors sparks the birth of a post-conflict politicalmilitary elite. It is beneficial to maintain powerbrokers as they are better suited to distribute resources through patronage at scale. Powerbroker alliances in weak states can be well explained by a theoretical approach based on balance of threat and more research is needed
- Topic:
- Alliance, Conflict, Militias, Political System, and Powerbrokers
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Lebanon, Mali, and Global Focus
230. The rules and organisation of air traffic at airstrips during military operations: Based on experience gained on missions in Chad and Afghanistan
- Author:
- Rafał Zajkowski
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The aim of the article is to present the characteristics of airstrips used by Polish and allied aircraft during military operations in Chad and Afghanistan. The main goal is to examine their organisation and the management of air traffic by Polish ATC staff as well as to answer the question: How did Polish controllers plan the air operation? Answers to this question were sought through empirical and theoretical research. The theoretical methods were a study of literature (analysis, synthesis, abstraction, generalisation, interpretation, analogy and comparison). The empirical method – “opinion poll” took the leading role, which used different techniques conducted in a tested environment to gather the data (interviews with experts and an ex post facto experiment). Consequently, the article looks at the method of planning and preparing air operations and the rules of air traffic organisation in the area of responsibility of Polish controllers. The selected issues discussed herein include the rules of airspace segmentation, the adopted air traffic control solutions and the landing zone infrastructure used. All in all, the experience discussed herein constitutes valuable information regarding air traffic security and may prove helpful in organising landing zones and preparing air personnel for future operations conducted by Polish and allied Military Contingents at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Affairs, and Air Force
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, South Asia, and Chad
231. Advancing Women’s Participation in Track II Peace Processes: Good and emerging practices
- Author:
- Agathe Christien
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- Diplomacy and peace processes are multi-tracked. They happen at multiple levels, from official peace negotiations to informal peacebuilding initiatives. Meaningful participation of women across all tracks is essential to building sustainable peace. While women remain underrepresented in official Track I peace processes, Track II diplomacy has offered women a space to meaningfully participate in conflict-resolution efforts. From past peace processes in Liberia and Myanmar to ongoing efforts in Afghanistan and the Caucasus, Track II diplomacy is both common and especially important for women. This policy brief is designed for an audience of conflict resolution practitioners and policymakers and seeks to capture the most successful and promising practices, highlight how to overcome common constraints, and propose indicators to assess the success of women’s participation in these informal processes.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Women, Peace, and Participation
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Caucasus, Liberia, and Myanmar
232. Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment
- Author:
- Javid Ahmad, Sher Jan Ahmadzai, Robert Finn, George Gavrilis, and Andrey Kazantsev
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- This report aims to provide a clear-eyed assessment of terrorism and armed conflict in Afghanistan and related security threats for the United States, Russia and key stakeholder countries, approaching these issues with a cooperative outlook.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Armed Forces, Counter-terrorism, Borders, Illicit Financial Flows, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, South Asia, and United States of America
233. President Trump’s Strategy in Afghanistan: The Way Forward to Normalcy
- Author:
- Muhammad Nasrullah Mirza and Yasir Malik
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- Over the years, the Taliban have overwhelmingly grown in influence and their stature is being well recognized; exerting more pressure on Washington’s future orientation in Afghanistan. Amidst the backdrop of transitions taking place in Afghanistan’s political landscape, the foreseeable future has, ostensibly, rekindled the prospects of peace. Although peace process is gradually moving further, yet both sides are reluctant to compromise on each others’ terms. Since the assumption of power, President Trump’s approach to Afghanistan has been oscillating in consulting varying options to bring the Taliban to their terms rather to indulge, in true spirits, in a widely acknowledged political framework for peace. These chosen policy actions posit more challenges and less opportunities for peace in war-ridden Afghanistan. The emergent scenario requires a comprehensive, well-crafted and compromising structure to be devised, featured with inclusiveness of all stakes and issues involved in this prolonged conflict. Evaluating and analyzing President Trump’s strategic policy toward Afghanistan, this paper aims to explore the manifesting failures and grey areas of Trump’s Afghan strategy and also attempts to provide strategic foresight while considering the framework of endgame in Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Taliban, Trump, Negotiation, and Exit Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, Central Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America
234. Indian Strategic Influence in Afghanistan: Realist Ends through Social Means
- Author:
- Marium Kamal
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- This era is witnessing rising India as a major power in the regional and global affairs. Since 9/11 India is strategically involved in Afghanistan in order to attain her broader agenda and realists‟ ends. India is pursuing her security, political, economic and social objectives in Afghanistan to strengthen her regional hegemonic influence under her smart power. This paper is exploring Indian hegemonic design and the level of Indian concentration and influence in Afghanistan via social means; it also gives comprehensive details about Indian objectives and activities, and what implications are drawn for Pakistan.
- Topic:
- Security, International Trade and Finance, Power Politics, Hegemony, and Strategic Encirclement
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, India, and Punjab
235. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Geo-political Implications, Regional Constraints and Benefits of CPEC
- Author:
- Umar Farooq and Asma Shakir Khawaja
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- The article is intended to find out the geopolitical implications, regional constraints and benefits of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Researcher reviewed both published research articles and books to find out geopolitical implication, regional constraints and benefits of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. For this purpose, researcher also reviewed newspapers articles and published reports by government and non-governmental stakeholders working on CPEC. Review of the articles and reports indicated that CPEC had enormous benefits not only for China and Pakistan but also for the whole region. But different internal and external stakeholders are not in favor of successful completion of this project. Extremism, sense of deprivation, lack of political consensus, political instability are some of the internal constraints. On the other hand, Afghanistan, India, Iran, UAE and USA are posing constraints to halt the successful completion of CPEC.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Violent Extremism, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, Iran, South Asia, India, Asia, Punjab, United Arab Emirates, and United States of America
236. The US in Afghanistan: Consequences of an Untimely Withdrawal
- Author:
- Dayyab Gillani
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- The following paper attempts to analyze the ongoing insurgency in Afghanistan by critically evaluating the insurgent ideology, its past, current and future relevance. The paper draws on lessons from the recent Afghanistan history and discusses the irrelevance for the future of Afghanistan. It traces the success of Taliban insurgency by highlighting the role of „mullahs‟ and „madrasas‟ in the Afghan society. It argues that the US policy in Afghanistan thus far has failed to isolate the public from the insurgents, which poses serious present and future challenges. By drawing parallels between the sudden Soviet withdrawal in the early 1990s and a potential US withdrawal in the near future. It also points out that an untimely US withdrawal from Afghanistan may entail an end of US engagement but it will not be an end of war for Afghanistan itself. The essay stresses the importance of a consistent long-term US policy aimed at addressing the very root causes of insurgency in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, Military Strategy, Insurgency, Taliban, and Islamism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, Central Asia, Punjab, and United States of America
237. The Contours of New Regional Alignments in South Asia
- Author:
- Nazir Hussain and Amna Javed
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- South Asia is an important but complex region. Its manifold complexity is largely ascribed through historical, economic, political and strategic manifestations. The region has witnessed instability in all the given premises and interactions. The entirety happens to be the fact that the structure of alignments is motivated by security complexes which involve cohesion of foreign powers and regional states. The US, Russia, Iran and China now make out to be contemporary stakeholders in South Asian security equation. Their involvement has been seen as a major reorientation in the regional dynamics in terms of political, economic and security characteristics. The manifold possibilities of re-alignments are what the future of the region will look like. The chance of full-fledged strategic alliance in the face of US-India on the basis of similar political, economic and security interests is on the horizon. As a corollary to this alliance pattern, there is China-Russia-Pakistan alliance which is similar in force but opposite in direction. These two systems are one set of opposition forces to each other, which are also natural in form. Another structure which occurs out of the regional dynamics happens to be of India-Iran-Afghanistan which is a trifecta aiming at Pakistan. On the other hand, Russia-China-Pakistan which could turn into a politically motivated and economically driven alliance and can also cover certain aspects of security. Therefore, due to various changes in order there will stem out various patterns of relationships, which could set the order of the region as one marked by various fluctuating alignment patterns.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Realignment
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, China, South Asia, North America, Punjab, and United States of America
238. Issues and Challenges of Peace Building in South Asia
- Author:
- Syed Shahbaz Hussain, Ghulam Mustafa, Robina Khan, and Muhammad Azhar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- Peace building is the rehearsal of developing policies that strengthen the peace and re-establish order through social, political and economic reforms. Peace building has shifted its state-centric approach to regional focused agendas for more than a decade.South Asia is a diverse region with a unique geo-strategic significance, socio-political subtleties, and economic diversities. It faces distinct traditional and non-traditional challenges in the process of peace building. South Asia – the home to one third global population faces immense challenges due to weak state structure. The long and persistent influence of external powers in decision making process in South Asia has impacted the political evolution of the states included in the said region. The lack of fundamental necessities has increased the level of frustration and the sense of deprivation, which provides a fertile ground for the prospect of conflicts. The region is often labelled as one of the most dangerous regions on earth due to growing intolerance, extremism, terrorism, insurgencies and rise of various nuclear powers in South Asia. Kenneth Waltz claimed that the anarchic international system is a power that shapes the states behaviour, as the structure of the anarchic system compels states to adopt certain policies. In this exploratory research, an effort has been made to explore and analyze that how anarchic international structure influences and affects the peace building process in South Asia.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies, Insurgency, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and State
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, South Asia, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Punjab, Bhutan, Maldives, and Indian Ocean
239. Reevaluation of U.S. Security Policy towards South Asia
- Author:
- Ahmad Ejaz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- South Asia has always been regarded as a significant area for the security interests of the United States. In view of the U.S. threat perceptions in Asia, the American policy makers were constantly motivated to construct a stable security system in the region. The U.S. security programme in South Asia actually is predominantly exerted on United States-Pakistan –India triangular relationship. Given its strategic perspective in the area, the U.S. policy is found transferred. During the Cold War days, the U.S. interests were attached with Pakistan. Thus Pakistan was regarded as the „America‟s most allied ally in Asia.‟ With the end of Cold War, the U.S. policy underwent a tremendous change that subsequently picked India as a potential counterweight to China and called it a „natural partner.‟ Eventually, the U.S.-Pakistan relations had been in a depressing setting. However, in the post 9/11 period, the two countries came closer and collaborated in war against terrorism. But this single-issue alliance could not engulf the differences between the partners. This paper attempts to trace the US security policy and its maneuvering in South Asia during and after the Cold War periods.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, International Cooperation, International Security, History, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, South Asia, North America, Punjab, and United States of America
240. The Power of Ideas That Won the Cold War is Still Needed
- Author:
- Christopher Datta
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- To win the Cold War, President Ronald Reagan did something for which he is never credited: he dramatically increased the budget of the United States Information Agency, the public diplomacy arm of our struggle against communism. Senegal, in September of 1999, was about to hold a presidential election. Because of USIA's long history of promoting journalism in Senegal, the embassy decided to work in partnership with the local Print, Radio and Television Journalists Federation to hold a series of workshops on the role of journalists in covering elections. USIA was uniquely organized to promote democratic development through the long term support of human rights organizations, journalism, programs that helped build the rule of law, educational programs that encouraged the acceptance of diversity in society and, perhaps most importantly, through partnering with and supporting local opinion leaders to help them promote democratic values that stand in opposition to ideologies hostile to the West.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Elections, Democracy, Rule of Law, Ideology, Networks, and Journalism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Soviet Union, West Africa, Syria, and Senegal
241. The Challenges of the Middle East
- Author:
- Haviland Smith
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- It is clear that there are powerful people both in the United States and in Iran who would like to force a real confrontation between our two countries. What is completely unclear is whether or not those hawks on both sides want a modified Cold War type confrontation, built perhaps on cyber warfare, or an all-out military confrontation. What this situation, with all its incredibly profound dangers and possible disastrous outcomes, has done is once again prompt the question, “what is the United States doing in the Middle East and what precisely are our goals there?”
- Topic:
- Cold War, Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Minorities, and Ethnicity
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and United States of America
242. The 1978 Revolution in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Larry Clinton Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- April 27, 1978 was a pleasant, sunny day in Kabul. It was Thursday. I worked at the American embassy and, in harmony with Islamic custom, our “weekends” were Thursday and Friday. I went horseback riding that morning. It was spring. The valleys were emerald green and dotted with orange-blooming pomegranate trees. Driving home at noon, I noticed nothing amiss.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, Coup, and Memoir
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, Soviet Union, North America, Kabul, and United States of America
243. Afghan Poppy Production for the World: Dynamics and Entanglements
- Author:
- Hermann Kreutzmann
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- In 2017, global opium production peaked at more than 10,000 tons. Ninety percent of that opium originated in Afghanistan—a record production level for that country—making Afghanistan the world’s leading opium producer, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Afghanistan has been the world-market leader in opium production since the 1990s, surpassed historically only by the British Empire prior to the mid-nineteenth century Opium Wars.2 Coincidentally, the First Opium War took place at the same time as the Anglo-Afghan military encounters commenced. During the so-called “Great Game” between Russia and Great Britain for geopolitical domination in Central Asia, Afghanistan played a relatively negligible role as far as opium was concerned. At the time, it only supplied limited quantities from Badakhshan to Kashgar in Xinjiang. By contrast, Great Britain—a prosperous and powerful empire—represented the largest global dealer in opium.
- Topic:
- Narcotics Trafficking, Violence, and Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
244. “We Have Captured Your Women”: Explaining Jihadist Norm Change
- Author:
- Aisha Ahmad
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In recent years, jihadists across the world have transformed their gendered violence, shocking the world by breaking from prior taboos and even celebrating abuses that they had previously prohibited. This behavior is surprising because jihadists represent a class of insurgents that are deeply bound by rules and norms. For jihadists, deviating from established Islamist doctrines is no easy feat. What then explains these sudden transformations in the rules and norms governing jihadist violence? An inductive investigation of contemporary jihadist violence in Pakistan and Nigeria reveals a new theory of jihadist normative evolution. Data from these cases show that dramatic changes in jihadist violence occur when an external trigger creates an expanded political space for jihadist entrepreneurs to do away with normative constraints on socially prohibited types of violence. As these jihadist leaders capitalize on the triggers, they are able to encourage a re-socialization process within their ranks, resulting in the erosion of previously held taboos, the adoption of proscribed behaviors, and the emergence of toxic new norms.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Gender Issues, Islam, Terrorism, Women, and Gender Based Violence
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and West Asia
245. The Belt and Road Initiative Still Afloat in South Asia
- Author:
- Sudha Ramachandran
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- South Asian governments are becoming increasingly discontent with Belt and Road Initiative projects. In August, Pakistan’s new government expressed interest in reviewing the CPEC contracts that they perceive to be over-priced, unnecessary, or excessively in the favor of PRC companies (Dawn, September 11). Similar sentiments have been expressed by the new Maldivian government, which is reviewing BRI contracts signed during the rule of former President Abdulla Yameen (Economic Times, November 26). Such actions raise questions as to whether South Asian states might scale down or even cancel BRI projects.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Infrastructure, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, South Asia, India, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Maldives
246. USAWC Quarterly: Parameters – Autumn 2019
- Author:
- Antulio J. Echevarria II, Hew Strachan, Seth A. Johnston, Howard Coombs, Martijn Kitzen, Christophe Lafaye, Conrad C. Crane, and Alexander G. Lovelace
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The Autumn issue of Parameters opens with a Special Commentary by Sir Hew Strachan concerning lessons Western militaries learned, or ought to have learned, during their campaigns in Afghanistan. His commentary sets up this issue’s first forum, Afghanistan’s Lessons: Part I. In the opening article, Seth Johnston’s “NATO’s Lessons” underscores the importance of the Alliance’s role as a facilitator of multinational collaboration. He presents a favorable view, arguing NATO’s established processes succeeded in enabling countries with limited resources to participate fully in the mission in Afghanistan. Howard Coombs follows with a contribution concerning “Canada’s Lessons.” Among other things, he maintains Canada’s whole-of-government approach resulted in great gains while Canadian Forces were actively involved in combat. Nonetheless, Canada seems uninterested in maintaining this capability as a framework for responding to other crises. The third article in this forum is Martijn Kitzen’s “The Netherlands’ Lessons,” which highlights the benefits of having a small military that enjoys networked learning. Although the Dutch military seems to be reverting to enemy-centric thinking, the author encourages its leaders to retain an adaptive mindset that will facilitate adopting a more population-centric approach when necessary. In “France’s Lessons,” Christophe Lafaye explains how combat in Afghanistan contributed to the tactical and doctrinal evolution of the French Army. With decades of relative peace since the Algerian War, French soldiers began their service in Afghanistan with little experience and inadequate materiel. They quickly developed into a combat-ready force capable of responding rapidly to a variety of military emergencies as the need arose. Our second forum, World War II: 75th Anniversary, features two contributions concerning famous US generals. Conrad Crane’s, “Matthew Ridgway and the Battle of the Bulge” illustrates examples of Ridgway’s strategic thinking at work during the German’s surprise attack and ensuing crisis. Alexander G. Lovelace’s “Slap Heard around the World: George Patton and Shell Shock” analyzes Patton’s possible motives for slapping two soldiers in during the Sicily campaign in 1943.
- Topic:
- NATO, War, History, Armed Forces, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, Canada, North America, Netherlands, and United States of America
247. Recommendations for Success in Afghanistan
- Author:
- M. Chris Mason, John Crisafulli, Fernando Farfan, Aaron French, Yama Kambiz, Bryan Kirk, Matthew Maybouer, and John Sannes
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The United States will soon enter the 18th year of combat operations in Afghanistan. During that time, multiple approaches to stabilize the country have been tried, including support to regional security initiatives, “nation-building,” counterinsurgency, counternarcotics, counterterrorism, and “train and equip.” The constellation of anti-government elements known collectively as the Taliban continues to refuse reconciliation or a negotiated peace under the existing Afghan constitution.
- Topic:
- War, History, Armed Forces, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
248. Strategic Insights: Five Myths Associated With Employing Private Military Companies
- Author:
- Edward Mienie and C. Anthony Pfaff
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- In August of 2017, Blackwater founder Erik Prince offered a plan for privatizing the war in Afghanistan, where he would replace the approximately 23,000 multinational forces (of which 15,000 are U.S. troops) and 27,000 contractors with 2,000 special forces and 6,000 security contractors who would embed with the Afghan National Army. Though the administration apparently rejected the plan at the time, multiple media outlets report there may be renewed interest, especially given the United States remains unable to resolve the conflict despite adopting a new, more aggressive strategy. Predictably, and justifiably, this interest has sparked a great deal of concern. Both former Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Chief of Staff John Kelly, in addition to a host of others, are reportedly opposed to the plan. With their departure, another opportunity to reconsider Prince’s proposal may arise.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Finance, Business, Military Spending, and Private Sector
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
249. Central Asia’s Growing Role in Building Peace and Regional Connectivity with Afghanistan
- Author:
- Humayan Hamidzada and Richard Ponzio
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In its 2017 strategy for South Asia, the Trump administration called on Pakistan to reduce support for the Taliban and encourage them to enter into peace negotiations. Yet as crucial as Pakistan will be to peace in Afghanistan, a similarly persuasive argument can be made for Afghanistan’s northern neighbors—the Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In this Special Report, Humayun Hamidzada and Richard Ponzio examine the vital economic and political roles these countries can play to support a just and lasting peace in Afghanistan and the region.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Taliban, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan
250. Breaking, Not Bending: Afghan Elections Require Institutional Reform
- Author:
- Scott Smith and Staffan Darnolf
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan’s presidential election is scheduled to take place on September 28. In planning the election, the Independent Election Commission (IEC) must overcome a number of practical challenges to avoid repeating the mistakes of the 2018 parliamentary elections—elections that undermined the legitimacy of the state and reduced Afghans’ confidence in democracy as a means for selecting their leaders. Based on a careful analysis of the IEC’s performance during the 2018 elections, this report offers recommendations for creating more resilient electoral institutions in Afghanistan and other postconflict countries.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Elections, Democracy, Conflict, Institutions, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and Central Asia