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Begin New Search Political Geography Afghanistan Publication Year within 10 Years

451. Afghanistan: the view from Russia

Author:
Józef Lang
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Russia's current and foreseeable policy towards Afghanistan is multi-vectored, complex and shows, at times, signs of incoherence. Russia views developments in Afghanistan as a strategic challenge and is expressing growing concern over the country's prospects for stability after the withdrawal of ISAF forces by the end of 2014. Russian decision-makers fear that a security vacuum emerging after the withdrawal could destabilise Central Asia and have a negative impact on Russia itself. At the same time, Moscow is concerned with Western military presence in the region, which it regards as interference in its neighbourhood. At tactical level, Russia also sees the situation in Afghanistan as an opportunity to secure its interests both regionally (consolidating its influence in Central Asia) and more widely (in terms of its relations with NATO).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, and Central Asia

452. Cooperative Security: NATO's Partnership Policy in a Changing World

Author:
Trine Flockhart
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The introductory chapter outlines the context within which NATO's new partnership policy has been formulated, especially the changing security and political context for partnerships in the 21st century and the anticipated effects of changing global power constellations and the prospects for change in the so- called liberal world order. The chapter introduces a conceptualization of 'the international' understood as consisting of three components (international structure, primary and secondary institutions) which are each likely to change in different ways over the coming years. The chapter briefly outlines the development of NATO's engagement with a wide variety of partners since the initial partnership structure was set up in 1991 and categorizes the different forms of partnership initiatives by dividing NATO's partnership initiatives into four different 'streams', which, although they progress in parallel, also coexist and intermingle.
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

453. Compounding Uncertainty in Afghanistan: Economic Consequences of Delay in Signing the Bilateral Security Agreement

Author:
Casey Garret Johnson, William A. Byrd, and Sanaullah Tasal
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The still unsigned Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the United States provides the legal basis for continuing U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. In addition to its substantive importance, the BSA is also a confidence-building mechanism. The delay in putting it in place is compounding uncertainty and further diminishing economic confidence during Afghanistan's already challenging and uncertain transition. Afghans' responses include, among others, hedging behavior (legal and illegal), personal decisions on whether to come back to or stay in Afghanistan, delays in investments, incipient job losses, declining demand for goods and services and real estate prices, and farmers planting more opium poppy.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Treaties and Agreements, Insurgency, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

454. The Taliban's View of the 2014 Elections

Author:
Michael Semple
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Afghan Taliban Movement has publicly rejected the legitimacy of the April 2014 elections. The Taliban's military leadership has issued instructions to officials and commanders to disrupt the elections but has left field commanders with wide discretion on how to go about doing so. Many in the Taliban follow the electoral contest closely and comment on developments in terms very similar to how they are described by the political and educated class in Kabul. However, the anti-election sentiment in the Taliban leaves no scope for any faction to cooperate with the process. The Taliban will likely be able to intensify violence approaching the election, but not sufficiently to derail the overall process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Islam, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

455. Conditions for a Successful Transition in Afghanistan Post-2014

Author:
Khalid Aziz
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
There are doubts whether the exit of a majority of foreign forces from Afghanistan will help the return of peace to that country. Unlike in the case of the SU withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988, conditions today are more dangerous, and it will be a miracle if the withdrawal is peaceful. The main reason for this is the absence of any reconciliation with the Taliban. This report identifies a minimum set of policies and measures that need to be implemented before successful multiple transitions in Afghanistan can occur. However, the overall picture is not positive, and it is not certain that peace will prevail after foreign troops leave Afghanistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

456. Al Qaïda / Hezbollah : la concurrence à distance entre deux logiques d'action jihadistes différentes pour la captation des cours et des esprits de l'Umma

Author:
Rayan Haddad
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
Une analyse relationnelle axée sur les logiques d'action concurrentes d' Al Qaïda 2 et du Hezbollah peut de prime abord surprendre le lecteur méconnaissant la scène moyen-orientale. Les deux parties, malgré leurs distinctions identitaires (et pas n'importe lesquelles puisque la division « sunnite / chiite » est un peu partout présentée comme la « clef de voûte analytique » d'un Orient finalement bien compliqué...), ne relèvent-elles pas finalement d'un même phénomène d'islamisme radical décrié par un grand nombre de médias contemporains ? L'approche peut de même provoquer un froncement de sourcils chez ceux qui connaissent mieux la géopolitique régionale. Malgré la similitude parfois de leur mode de violence opérationnel (« kamikaze »), la mouvance salafiste jihadiste n'est-elle pas la manifestation d'une contestation fanatique et déterritorialisée de l'ordre mondial, alors que le « parti de Dieu » s'inscrit dans l'optique de la libération (« légitime ») d'un territoire national ? Comment dès lors parler de concurrence ? Les deux parties n'ont pas les mêmes référents idéologiques (khomeynisme / salafisme), pas la même définition de leur champ d'action ni – par conséquent – la même hiérarchisation (effective et non rhétorique) de l'ennemi (Israël dans un cas, les Etats-Unis et l'Occident dans l'autre), pas les mêmes valeurs jihadistes (illégitimité / légitimité de prendre pour cible des civils occidentaux), pas la même organisation structurelle (fortement centralisée / décentralisée), et ne s'adresseraient pas a priori à un même public islamiste (localiste ou régionaliste d'une part, transnational de l'autre). En réalité, bien qu'elle soit virtuelle et à distance, l'objet de cet article est de montrer qu'il y a bel et bien dans certains cas concurrence idéologique entre le Hezbollah et Al Qaïda au niveau de la captation des cours et des esprits d'une audience panislamique mondiale, conduisant (peut-être parfois) à une logique de mimétisme, mais surtout à des stratégies de distinction entre les deux parties. Cette concurrence a pour toile de fond un contexte moyen-oriental où les sentiments anti-impérialistes battent son plein, et où l'on observe un processus de réactivation d'identités religieuses transfrontalières questionnant la légitimité de l'ordre régional. Nous proposons de présenter tout d'abord les contextes respectifs d'émergence des contestations khomeynistes et salafistes jihadistes.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

457. ¿Guerra total y/o fuerza mínima? Historia y paradojas de "los corazones y los espíritus"

Author:
Christian Olsson
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
"Cada vez que los incidentes de guerra obligan a uno de nuestros oficiales a actuar contra una población [...], no debe olvidar que su primera preocupación, una vez que se haya obtenido la sumisión de sus habitantes, ha de ser la de reconstruir dicha población, crear un mercado, construir una escuela. La pacificación del país y, más tarde, la organización que se le ha de otorgar, han de resultar de la acción de la política y de la fuerza". General Gallieni, instrucciones fundamentales del 22 de mayo de 1898 en Madagascar.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Iraq

458. La métamorphose du guerrier

Author:
Massimiiliano Guareschi and Maurizio Guerri
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
Il devient chaque jour plus difficile de tenter de déterminer la forme-guerre car la seule règle manifeste de la violence est de n'en avoir aucune, si ce n'est celle d'avoir lieu de manière ubiquiste, changeante, equivoque. Les visages ou les masques qu'elle assume aujourd'hui sont, tour à tour, le choc des civilisations, la guerre de religion, les opérations de police internationale, la lutte contre la terreur voire la diffusion du progrès et de la démocratie. Dans les guerres contemporaines, de nouveaux combattants se mêlent et se superposent aux anciens guerriers : soldats réguliers et irréguliers, mercenaires, agents secrets, terroristes, pirates et kamikazes. C'est pour cette raison que l'idée de tenter de déterminer les contours de la guerre à travers la figure des combattants, ceux qui risquent leur vie pour donner la mort, représente un passage difficile mais nécessaire afin de ne pas tomber dans ce que Jacques Derrida a appelé « le sommeil dogmatique », c'est-à-dire l'usage des lieux communs exploités en permanence par le journalisme et par les administrations gouvernementales qui partent toujours du présupposé que les significations respectives de « guerre » et « paix », de « démocra- tie » et de « terrorisme » sont évidentes. Si nous voulons tenter de comprendre les dynamiques actuelles, nous devons abandonner la conviction tranquillisante et très répandue selon laquelle il y a dans ces termes quelque chose de tenu pour acquis, quelque chose qui peut être abandonné au préjugé du soi-disant « sens commun ». Durant ces dernières années, des analyses approfondies de caractère juridique, politique, philosophique se sont unies à des protestations de masse pour dénoncer l'absence de clarté des termes « war » et « terrorism » dans le slogan « war on terrorism ». Cependant, malgré tout ce qu'il y a d'« obscur, de dogmatique ou de pré-critique », cela « n'empêche pas les pouvoirs prétendus légitimes de s'en servir quand cela leur semble opportun ».
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

459. Demandez le programme ! Quelques réflexions sur l'« Extraordinary Rendition Program

Author:
Alain Brosset
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
On a vu apparaître ces dernières années, dans le vocabulaire de la contreterreur développée par l'administration des Etats-Unis, une nouvelle expression – « extraordinary rendition » – que l'on traduit généralement en français par « transferts spéciaux ». Nous allons tenter ici de poser quelques questions actuelles à propos de la souveraineté et des frontières, en partant des dispositifs et des usages que suppose cette notion.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

460. Structures, environnement et basculement dans le jihadisme

Author:
Luis Martinez
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
Comment expliquer l'attrait pour le courant jihadiste de certains jeunes musulmans en France ? Cet article montre comment se construit la justification de la radicalisation et les étapes qui rendent légitime le passage à l'acte violent. Le processus de justification du passage à l'acte violent - à l'attentat-suicide par exemple - s'inscrit dans un contexte qu'il faut comprendre : quelles sont « les structures sociales et organisationnelles qui peuvent promouvoir dans un moment donné, l'attentat-suicide ? ». Aussi, l'analyse du basculement dans la violence doit-elle recontextualiser les engagements et les trajectoires individuelles, car l'environnement dans lequel se construit le processus de justification apparaît comme déterminant. Le basculement dans la violence n'est pas le produit d'une frustration ou d'un symptôme psychologique. L'attentat-suicide, par exemple, est un véritable instrument de guerre. Il a un sens, répond à une logique et s'inscrit dans une finalité : un territoire à libérer, une communauté à reconquérir . Les entretiens réalisés auprès de jeunes musulmans d'origine nord-africaine permettent ici de souligner comment se construit la justification du passage à l'acte violent ; ils permettent aussi de comprendre que, pour que l'acte violent se réalise, des conditions générales et structurelles sont nécessaires, sans quoi la justification du passage reste de l'ordre du discours.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and America

461. L'impact de la « participation musulmane » sur le mouvement altermondialiste en Grande-Bretagne et en France

Author:
Timothy Peace
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
Depuis 2001, en France comme en Grande-Bretagne, les « musulmans » et les associations qui les représentent ont été amenés à participer à plusieurs occasions au mouvement altermondialiste. On a notamment pu le constater lors des Forum sociaux européens (FSE) qui se sont tenus dans les capitales de ces deux pays. Cet engagement s'étant récemment affaibli, il est possible d'y voir un cas d'« altermondialisme oublié ». On a souvent pointé ces pays en raison de leur attitude divergente vis-à-vis de leurs minorités respectives et sur la place qu'y occupe la religion dans la sphère publique. Ces deux cas offrent donc aux chercheurs l'opportunité d'étudier comment ces différentes conceptions affectent les mouvements sociaux et leurs participants. Nous souhaitons montrer dans cet article que l'élément le plus notable de cette mobilisation musulmane est l'impact de celle-ci sur des mouvements altermondialistes euxmêmes et la manière dont elle a remis en question leur propre représentation de mouvements ouverts et « tolérants ». De nombreux spécialistes des mouvements sociauxont remarqué le fait que les acteurs de ces mouvements doivent souvent faire face à des dilemmes causés par le poids des identités religieuses et la difficulté de faire coexister celles-ci avec d'autres critères d'identification . Cet article cherche à mettre ces difficultés en avant, ainsi que les limites de la supposée « tolérance » des acteurs « traditionnels » de l'altermondialisme, confrontés à la participation des musulmans. Les FSE servent de lieu de rencontre et de discussion pour une myriade de groupes se réclamant de la mouvance altermondialiste. Cependant, l'événement en lui-même consiste à la fois en un forum officiel et en un « espace alternatif / autonome » agissant comme un événement annexe, composé de tous les groupes qui rejettent le processus officiel d'organisation. A l'intérieur du mouvement lui-même, on fait souvent référence à ce clivage en usant de l'expression « horizontaux contre verticaux », chacun des groupes ayant des conceptions opposées de la politique, des enjeux du FSE et du mouvement en general . Nous étudierons ici uniquement les forums officiels - en particulier ceux qui se sont tenus en région parisienne en 2003 et à Londres en 2004 - et nous ne traiterons donc que des acteurs « verticaux ».
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and France

462. Afghanistan at a Crossroads: Recommendations for the UN Security Council on the 2014 UNAMA mandate

Author:
Steph Cousins and Liz Cameron
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
As Afghanistan prepares for Presidential elections and the withdrawal of international forces, insecurity is continuing to spread across the country with a devastating impact on civilians. UNAMA's role in advancing human rights, supporting humanitarian access and promoting peace and reconciliation efforts – particularly as they relate to the women, peace and security agenda in Afghanistan – must be strengthened in order to ensure the significant gains that have been made in the last decade are not lost.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Government, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

463. Why Afghanistan's Provincial Council Elections Matter

Author:
Noah Coburn and Anna Larson
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan's Provincial Councils (PCs) represent one of the best hopes for the future of local democracy in Afghanistan. Yet since their shaky formation in 2005, they continue to be overlooked by international actors preferring to interact with parliamentarians, ministers and appointed governors. The significance assigned by Afghans to winning PC seats has steadily increased over the last decade. Indeed, for many, the April 5 PC elections will do more than the presidential poll to determine whether democratic practices continue to take root in local politics. PC elections offer a chance to build local, personal ties and accountability mechanisms connecting to increasingly centralized government resources, and, in particular, an opportunity for a new generation of young, motivated Afghans to begin their political careers. As the locally-visible manifestation of the Afghan political system, PCs are the immediate face of democracy—or a lack thereof—for many Afghans. In 2009, with most news stories covering the widespread fraud in the presidential contest, the uproar over the fraud and delay throughout the PC polling process rarely received coverage on newspaper front pages. Yet those problems contributed significantly to people's sense of alienation and disillusionment with their country's political actors and electoral institutions. In spite of these experiences, Afghans are once again preparing to go to the polls. Voters, candidates, parties and local organizations are putting greater emphasis than ever on the process of provincial council polling—expressing concern about the prospects for fraud, mobilizing around their candidates and campaigning in earnest. If due attention to the process is not paid by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and by international agencies, popular participation in future elections could drop. Prospects for Afghan democratization will depend much on how these and future provincial-level elections are conducted.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Demographics, Development, Islam, Politics, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

464. Last Chance: The International Community and the 2014 Afghan Elections

Author:
Scott S. Smith
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan's democratic development has taken place within the tight embrace of international support and the conception of "free and fair" elections that comes with it, but Afghan and inter-national views on what to expect from elections have diverged in the past, leading to a deepening of distrust between the Karzai-led Afghan government and the international community. The run-up to the 2014 presidential elections has been shaped by this distrust. Nonetheless, with the breakdown of the reconciliation effort with the Taliban and uncertainty about the result of the transition process due to President Hamid Karzai's unexpected refusal to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), the April 5 election is the only remaining opportunity for a political resolution of the continuing crisis in Afghanistan. A more complete understanding of the 2009 elections—how they were and were not a disaster—can help to narrow the gap between Afghan and international expectations; and an understanding of some of the changes that have occurred in Afghan society since 2009 can offer reason for optimism that the election will at the least create space for political elites to address the root causes of the crisis.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Corruption, Democratization, Political Economy, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

465. Reintegrating Armed Groups in Afghanistan: Lessons from the Past

Author:
Deedee Derksen
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
A piecemeal approach to disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) in Afghanistan, with four DDR programs since 2001 each targeting specific groups, has yielded limited results, mostly due to an extremely adverse political environment. Comprehensive DDR is unlikely to work without a settlement that includes all armed groups. The success of such a deal would in turn hinge on the successful reintegration of commanders and fighters. Sequencing DDR in the conventional way may not work; reintegration might better precede disarmament.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

466. Afghanistan after the Drawdown

Author:
Gerald F. Hyman
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In his 2013 State of the Union speech, President Barack Obama announced that by the end of 2014 "our war in Afghanistan will be over" and, a month earlier, that "by the end of next year, 2014, the transition will be complete—Afghans will have full responsibility for their security, and this war will come to a responsible end." The military transition, successful or not, is in full swing. Of course the war will not come to an end in 2014, responsible or otherwise. Even if the military drawdown goes as planned, "America's commitment to a unified and sovereign Afghanistan will endure, but the nature of our commitment will change," the president said. On the military side, our enduring commitment will focus on training, equipping, and funding the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and "some counterterrorism efforts that allow us to pursue remnants of al Qaeda and their affiliates," presumably the Taliban. As the United States draws down, so too will the remaining coalition countries of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) under North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) command.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia

467. The Challenges to Transition in Afghanistan: 2014-2015

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Creating political unity and reasons to be loyal to government. Creating a new structure of governance and balance between factions. Effective revenue collection, budget planning and expenditure, and limits to corruption. Fully replacing NATO/ISAF with the ANSF and "layered defense". Creating a new structure of security forces, advisors, and aid funds, to include addressing the presence of US and other nations' personnel. Acting on the Tokyo Conference: Creating effective flow and use of aid, economic reform, and limits to corruption and waste Stabilizing a market economy driven by military spending and moving towards development: Brain drain and capital flight. Coping with weather and other challenges to agricultural structure and with pressures to increase the narco - economy. Dealing with neighbors: Pakistan, I ran, Central Asian nations, India, China, and Russia.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Military Strategy, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, China, South Asia, India, and North America

468. Les conséquences de la guerre contre le terrorisme sur le monde des ONG Le cas du réseau de partenaires de Cordaid à travers le monde

Author:
François Lenfant, Lie van Broekhoven, and Frank van Lierde
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
L'essor du rôle des ONG en tant qu'acteurs exerçant une influence croissante dans les relations internationales a fait l'objet de nombreuses recherches ces dix dernières années. Pour beaucoup de chercheurs, ce phénomène résulte des défaillances aussi bien du secteur public (gouvernement) que privé (marché). Ces défaillances sont d'autant plus manifestes dans les nombreuses situations de crises humanitaires où les ONG, aussi bien locales qu'internationales, se sont vu attribuer de plus en plus de responsabilités. Dans de telles situations, le rôle qui leur est désormais dévolu inclut non seulement la protection des personnes et la prévention d'abus à leur encontre, mais aussi la mise en place de mécanismes d'alerte et le plaidoyer pour les droits de la personne, la socialisation et le renforcement de la cohésion sociale, la médiation, les activités de consolidation de la paix, etc. L'interpénétration des domaines de l'humanitaire, du développement et de la transformation des conflits a été finement analysée par Mary Anderson. À ses yeux, l'aide humanitaire ne doit pas seulement être fournie de façon responsable afin de minimiser son impact sur le conflit, mais elle doit aussi réduire les tensions entre combattants. Cette extension des activités des ONG dans des domaines que l'on peut qualifier de politiques rend encore plus complexes et ambiguës les relations déjà tendues que les ONG, aussi bien nationales qu'internationales, entretiennent avec les gouvernements. En effet, ces derniers ont tendance à appliquer une définition restrictive de l'humanitaire, ce qui leur permet de mettre en question la légitimité des ONG à intervenir hors de ce cadre prédéfini. Suite aux nombreuses crises humanitaires des années 1990 qui ont mis en exergue les déficiences inhérentes à une stricte application du droit international humanitaire dans la protection des populations, les ONG ont reconstruit leur légitimité en s'appuyant sur un système de valeurs morales inspirées de la déclaration universelle des droits de l'homme. Néanmoins, que leur légitimité soit fondée sur un socle normatif légal ou moral, les ONG travaillant dans des situations de conflit sont confrontées à de nombreux dilemmes, en particulier celui qui renvoie à leur positionnement vis-à-vis des gouvernements. Cette tension qui caractérise les relations entre gouvernements et ONG en ce qui concerne la définition et le champ d'intervention de l'humanitaire a été exacerbée par le contexte de la « guerre contre le terrorisme ».
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

469. Valider la guerre : la construction du régime d'expertise stratégique

Author:
Christophe Wasinski
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
La guerre est malheureusement loin d'avoir disparu du paysage international . Après la fin de la guerre froide, les forces armées ont continué à se préparer à ce phénomène comme l'ont bien montré, au cours des années 1990 et au début des années 2000, les projets de Révolution dans les Affaires Militaires ou de Transformation aux Etats-Unis. Plus encore, de nombreuses armées se sont régulièrement impliquées dans des opérations guerrières diverses comme en Irak en 1991, au Kosovo en 1999, en Afghanistan depuis 2001 et encore en Irak depuis 2003. Comme l'ont pourtant noté Keith Krause et Michael C. Williams, de façon étonnante et en dépit de sa prégnance, la violence guerrière reste sous-théorisée par les recherches interprétatives en relations internationals.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Kosovo

470. La volontè de rèprimer

Author:
Christophe Wasinski
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
Le présent texte doit tout d'abord s'envisager comme une prise de position par rapport à l'actualité internationale de ces dernières années. Nous entendons effectivement poser un regard critique à l'encontre de la redécouverte des (fort acclamées) doctrines militaires contre-insurrectionnelles, en particulier dans le contexte des guerres en Irak et en Afghanistan. Pour ce faire, notre analyse cherche à contribuer au travail d'analyse généalogique de l'utilisation des forces armées dans la répression de troubles politiques internes. L'analyse généalogique permet en effet d'aborder la répression militarisée comme une norme soutenue par des réseaux d'individus qui reproduisent des pratiques, formalisent et perpétuent des savoirs et sont à l'origine d'institutions spécifiques. Par cette approche, le fait que la répression militarisée est considérée comme a priori pensable sur le plan social et faisable au niveau technique doit être appréhendé comme le résultat d'un régime de véridiction tout à fait particulier et non comme un « fait naturel ». Ce régime participe donc à une forme d'essentialisation de l'idée d'utilité technique de l'em-ploi de forces militaires et paramilitaires à l'intérieur d'un État. Il contribue aussi à lui donner une forme qui, malgré tout, évolue dans le temps et l'espace (on parle ainsi de « guerre coloniale », « guerre révolutionnaire » ou encore « contre-insurrection »). Au final, l'un des objectifs de la méthode généalogique est donc de rendre problématique ce qui semble aller de soi, c'est-à-dire, dans le contexte de cette étude, le fait que des États utilisent leurs forces armées dans le but de réprimer certaines contestations. Enfin, nous garderons à l'esprit, tout au long de cette analyse, que ce régime a des effets politiques puissants. D'une part, il donne aux décideurs politiques une justification essentielle quant à l'emploi des forces armées au niveau interne. D'autre part, il est capable de radicaliser dramatiquement les enjeux politiques de la contestation sociale par la diffusion de grilles de lecture de type ami-ennemi à des populations entières.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

471. Talking to the Taliban 2010 – 2011: A Reflection

Author:
Marc Grossman
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
When then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asked in early 2011 if I would become the United States' Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan (SRAP) – after the sudden death of Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, the first SRAP– she described the foundations Ambassador Holbrooke had laid to manage one of the most challenging tasks facing the nation. Secretary Clinton also said that she wanted to continue the experiment: having the SRAP organization prove that the "whole–of–government" philosophy– the idea that the United States must employ expertise and resources from all relevant parts of government to address the nation's most important challenges –was the right model for 21st century diplomacy.2 The SRAP team brought together experts from across the U.S. Government (and included several diplomats from NATO countries) to develop and implement integrated strategies to address the complex challenges in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the region.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Afghanistan

472. Putting State Legitimacy at the Center of Foreign Operations and Assistance

Author:
Bruce Gilley
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
It is a commonly expressed idea that a key goal of intervention in and assistance to foreign nations is to establish (or re-establish) legitimate political authority. Historically, even so great a skeptic as John Stuart Mill allowed that intervention could be justified if it were "for the good of the people themselves" as measured by their willingness to support and defend the results. In recent times, President George W. Bush justified his post-war emphasis on democracybuilding in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in the Middle East with the logic that "nations in the region will have greater stability because governments will have greater legitimacy." President Obama applauded French intervention in Mali for its ability "to reaffirm democracy and legitimacy and an effective government" in the country
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Middle East

473. Rules of Engagement and Abusive Citizens

Author:
Amitai Etzioni
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
The time has come to draw lessons from the war in Afghanistan. One major concern is how the U.S. military ought to deal with civilians who are sporadic combatants, and civilians who act, part of the time, as support forces for combatants (by serving as intelligence agents, manufacturing ammunition and bombs, supplying provisions and transportation, and so on). Discussion of this topic has often focused on ways to deal with those civilians after they have been caught fighting us and whether they should be treated as soldiers or as criminals, a matter that has not been resolved. (My own position is that they should be treated as a third category: as terrorists, subject to distinct rules and authority.)2 This article focuses on an earlier phase: when these civilians are still acting as combatants or supporting them.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

474. Confronting the Threat of Corruption and Organized Crime in Afghanistan: Implications for Future Armed Conflict

Author:
Tim Sullivan and Carl Forsberg
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
As the conflict in Afghanistan has evolved over the last decade, it has become apparent that of the many challenges the country and its international partners face, few are as complex, pervasive, and threatening as corruption and organized crime. Together, corruption and organized crime have undermined efforts to build Afghan institutions, consolidate security gains, achieve political progress, encourage economic growth, and set conditions for enduring stability. These problems, however, are not unique to the war in Afghanistan. Conflicts elsewhere in recent decades have revealed that states engaged in or emerging from insurgencies and civil wars—especially those in which institutions are weak, rule of law is minimal, and substantial international resources have been injected with inadequate oversight—are particularly susceptible to the proliferation of corruption and organized crime.
Topic:
Corruption
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

475. Women and Wars

Author:
Kristen A. Cordell
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Carol Cohn's December 2012 anthology Women and Wars uses descriptions of the varied roles of women during conflict to push forward an agenda for full inclusion of their perspective in securing the peace. Women and Wars fills the vacuum left by the "women as victims" approach that characterized the early 2000's, with a diverse array of options for understanding the roles and perspectives that women have during conflict, including: soldiers, civilians, caregivers, sex workers, refugees and internally displaced persons, anti-war activists, and community peacebuilders.
Topic:
Civil War and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Burundi

476. An Interview with Lieutenant General Mike Flynn

Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
When I looked at the intelligence system, as the Chief Intelligence Officer for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and U.S. Forces Afghanistan in 2009, I realized that for us to be successful with President Obama's new population-centric strategy we had to refocus on the right aspects of the environment. We were focused to a large degree – I would say 95 percent – on the enemy networks (e.g. Taliban, the Haqqani Network, etc.). We had tremendous fidelity on those issues because we had been studying them for years. What we quickly realized was that we had no knowledge, no real understanding of the various tribal elements within Afghanistan. We had to understand the cultures that existed, the dynamics of the type of government that we were trying to support and the population centers in which we were actually operating. We honestly did not have any deep understanding of any of that. We were trying to figure out who was who, from the local governments on up to the national government, and we did not have any captured data, information or knowledge. We did not have that real depth of understanding that we had in other places – in Iraq it took us a while to get there. Those conditions led me and two colleagues to sit down and put our thoughts together to say we needed to do something different. We needed to completely realign our focus to the population and to the build out of the Afghan National Security Forces. We outlined the color system: the red, the white, the green, and the blue. The red was the enemy; white was the population; green was Afghan National Security Forces; and blue was us. We had a really good picture of the red and the blue, but we had no picture of the green or the white, and it was really stunning. So, we decided to put our thoughts down on paper.
Topic:
Government and National Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

477. Afghanistan's Insurgency after the Transition

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The war in Afghanistan entered a new phase in 2013. It now is increasingly a contest between the insurgents and the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Many within and outside the government are more optimistic about stability in the wake of a relatively successful first round of presidential elections on 5 April 2014. However, any euphoria should be tempered by a realistic assessment of the security challenges that President Karzai's successor will face in the transitional period of 2014-2015. Kabul may find these challenges difficult to overcome without significant and sustained international security, political and economic support.
Topic:
International Security, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

478. Extreme Violence and the Rule of Law: Lessons From Eastern Afghanistan

Author:
Rachel Kleinfeld and Harry Bader
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The international community's approach to building the rule of law in situations of extreme violence can be improved. These contexts demand a strategy that reduces the strength of armed nonstate groups and restores stability so governance-building activities can take hold. Lessons from a program implemented by the Natural Resources Counterinsurgency Cell (NRCC) in Afghanistan can help inform a more holistic strategy.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Bilateral Relations, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

479. Afghanistan: A Thousand Little Wars

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
To contain a growing, increasingly confident insurgency as NATO troops withdraw, Afghanistan needs continued international support, including military, and the new government in Kabul will need to reinvigorate the state's commitment to the rule of law.
Topic:
NATO, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

480. The Afghan National Police in 2015 and Beyond

Author:
Michelle Hughes
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Afghan National Police (ANP) has made remarkable progress, but the challenges are urgent, and critical capabilities remain underdeveloped. Within the framework of the minister of interior's own Strategic Vision, opportunities will arise to close some of the capacity gaps in the coming years. Helping the ANP shift from a wartime footing to a contextually appropriate community policing model, and advancing professionalism within the ministry and the operating forces, is critical to sustainability. If a national police force is going to succeed, the linkage between policing and governance must be recognized and strengthened. Managing the expanding array of ANP donors and their activities poses a unique challenge that has yet to be addressed. It is an executive challenge for the Ministry of Interior and a coordination challenge for the international community. For both, it will require a long-term approach. To facilitate effective evidence-based operations (EvBO) and strengthen the relationship between the ANP and the communities it serves, U.S.-funded activities that build capacity for justice and governance need to be more closely aligned with ANP development.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

481. A Counterterrorism Role for Pakistan's Police Stations

Author:
Robert Perito and Tariq Parvez
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Terrorism, secessionist insurgency, sectarian conflict, and ethnic turf wars have convulsed both Pakistan's major cities and tribal areas along the Afghanistan border. The escalation in mega-urban centers in particular has increased the importance of the police in controlling the endemic violence. The police station retains both its historic role as the symbol of government authority and its position as the basic law enforcement institution responsible for public order, law enforcement, and police services. Yet police stations and personnel are ill prepared and poorly equipped to meet the challenges of the country's complex, urbanized, and increasingly violent society. Pakistani police have found themselves on the front lines, and a growing number have given their lives to protect others in the struggle against terrorist and criminal groups. The need is now urgent to empower the police through a program of positive reform that would begin with modernizing police stations and reorienting and retraining their personnel. An effective program for police station reform would begin with assigning primacy to the police for controlling terrorism. It would include developing new organizational struc¬tures, positions, and standard operating procedures to ensure that local police understand their enhanced role and mission. It would also include improving police-public relations and networking police stations into a national information-sharing network with anti-terrorist agencies. Creating high-profile specialized units appears to offer a quick fix to a complex and increas¬ingly pervasive problem. The real solution, however, lies in empowering Pakistan's police stations to protect their communities from criminal and extremist violence through modern¬ization and reform.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Afghanistan

482. Former U.N. Peacekeepers: Agents of Cultural Change in Pakistan's Polic

Author:
Muhammad Quraish Khan
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Former U.N. peacekeepers are an emerging cadre within Pakistan's police who are precursors of professionalization and other positive changes in police culture. Given their peacekeeping experience, they are torchbearers of human rights protection in policing, and believers in gender equality and the rule of law. They have also shown an ability to resist undue political pressure by government ministers, politicians and interest groups. They form a resilient force when it comes to fighting the tide of militancy and terrorism in Pakistan. This pool of trained resources may be utilized by the United Nations Department of Peace-keeping Operations (DPKO) for the quick start of new peacekeeping missions. The Government of Pakistan could also utilize them for police-reform initiatives, imparting training and demonstrating best practices. Given the potential gains from police participation in U.N. peacekeeping, Pakistan's recent, self-imposed ban on police joining peacekeeping deployments in the future should be reversed.
Topic:
Security and Culture
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Africa, and United States

483. Engaging Afghan Religious Leaders for Women's Rights

Author:
Palwasha L. Kakar
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
As the economic, security and political transitions take place in Afghanistan, it is essential to work with religious leaders who have credibility and moral authority among large segments of the Afghan public. Religious leaders are among Afghanistan's traditional "gatekeepers" for making local decisions, especially on questions of women's rights, and they can be effectively engaged. Despite the very negative reactions by religious leaders to women's rights at the national political level, some at the local level have shown continuing interest in women's rights when they are involved within an Islamic framework and have participated in protecting such rights. Effective engagement with religious leaders starts with respecting their opinions and involving them directly in processes of changing strongly held social norms on women's rights and other sensitive topics, such as tolerance and peacebuilding.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Africa

484. Afghanistan's Looming Fiscal Crisis: What Can Be Done?

Author:
William A. Byrd
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan faces a fiscal crisis that reflects worsening domestic revenue shortfalls since 2011, which could reach $1 billion in 2014 compared with the 2011 outlook. The massive theft and fraud at Kabul Bank, failure of mining activities to pay taxes and royalties, and mislabeling of some commercial imports as duty-free are among other contributing factors. Turning the fiscal crisis around will take time, but a legitimate, credible new Afghan government coming into office is essential. Quality leadership and management teams in the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will be crucial for success. Urgent measures are needed to turn around poor revenue performance, including strong signals from the top, possible exploitation of limited new revenue sources, and cooperation among different agencies to reduce smuggling and contain revenue leakages. Accelerated recovery of stolen and lost Kabul Bank assets should be a priority, which could provide over $100 million per year of extra fiscal space for the budget. Reforms of the revenue system need to be initiated, including introduction of a value-added tax, and possibly reform of the revenue and customs services. Expenditures will need to be cut. This requires the elimination of unnecessary and wasteful expenditures as well as the meaningful prioritization of programs within a tight resource envelope. Additional international fiscal support will be needed to help stabilize the budget in the short run. Linking aid for the Afghan discretionary budget to increases in domestic revenues and Kabul Bank recoveries would make sense.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

485. Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014

Author:
Sarah Stern and Anna Mitri
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
With the end of the ISAF mandate, Afghanistan will enter the "de-cade of transformation" in late 2014, and assume security for and within the country. The challenges with regard to security and governance are obvious; they attract much political and public attention.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia

486. Stronger Together: Women Parliamentarians in Joint Action for Peace and Security

Author:
Agnes Venema
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The United Nations Security Council passed resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) in 2000, which is considered to be the back - bone of efforts to include women in peace negotiations, post-conflict reconstruction and disarmament, demobilization and re - integration initiatives around the world. Ten years after this landmark resolution was passed, the East West Institute's Parliamentarians Network for Conflict Prevention started its work on the Women, Peace and Security agenda upon the request of women members of parliament from Afghanistan and Pakistan, who felt marginalized, sidelined and excluded from their national security processes as well as from international dialogues on this issue.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United Nations

487. Researching Ethnic Relations as the Outcome of Political Processes

Author:
Anaïd Flesken
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Ethnic diversity is often seen to be detrimental to peace and stability, particularly if ethnicity is the basis for political mobilization. Mobilization is assumed to increase the salience of ethnicity, and with it in-group cohesion, out-group animosity, and national instability; yet the mechanisms have rarely been studied empirically. This article argues that we need to study ethnicity as the outcome of political processes, focus on the attitudinal mechanisms underlying ethnic relation; and examine this phenomenon at the individual level. To this end, the article first disaggregates the term "ethnicity" into attributes, meanings, and actions. Referring to constructivism, it then argues that political science should focus on meanings. Building on the theory and findings of social psychology, this paper shows that political science must distinguish analytically between meanings regarding different in- and out-group processes. Doing so can help advance the study of ethnic relations and conflict-management practices.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Politics, and Ethnic Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Bulgaria

488. Drones, Risk, and Perpetual Force

Author:
Christian Enemark
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
How should we conceptualize the use of missile-equipped uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs or "drones") in the U.S. "war on terror"? If violence of this kind is to be effectively restrained it is necessary first to establish an understanding of its nature. To this end, it is useful to focus on those theatres of the war where drones are the dominant platform for violence (such as in Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia), rather than where they support primarily ground-based efforts (such as in Afghanistan and Iraq). The analysis in this article is presented in two parts. The first part considers whether drone strikes are better conceptualized as acts of war or of law enforcement. If it is difficult to conceptualize drone-based violence as acts of war, then such violence may not be captured by the traditional jus ad bellum (just resort to war) framework within just war theory. And if drone strikes do not constitute a law enforcement practice, the peacetime ethics of criminal justice may not apply either. One possible solution is to develop and apply a legitimization framework of jus ad vim (just resort to force) in which vim is "force short of war," although this depends upon the sustainability of a vim/bellum distinction.
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Yemen, and Somalia

489. Pakistan and Afghanistan: International Indicators of Progress

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
It is unclear that the United States has any current assessments and strategy to deal with either these governance or economic issues. If it does, it has provided no transparency as to what these plans are, and has failed to develop any effective public measures of the effectiveness of its civil aid programs after more than 10 years of effort, and in spite of the fact that the civil dimension of counterinsurgency efforts is at least as important as the military efforts. It is also important to note that World Bank and UN reporting show the same lack of progress in governance, economics, and human development in Pakistan as in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and India

490. Security Transition in Afghanistan

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan's other allies face during 2014-2015 and beyond.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East

491. The Civil Transition in Afghanistan: 2014-2016

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan's other allies face during 2014 2015 and beyond. The five other key challenges include: Going from an uncertain election to effective leadership and political cohesion and unity. Creating an effective and popular structure governance, with suitable reforms, from the local to central government, reducing corruption to acceptable levels, and making suitable progress in planning, budgeting, and budget execution. Coping with the coming major cuts in outside aid and military spending in Afghanistan, adapting to a largely self-financed economy, developing renewal world economic development plans, carrying out the reforms pledged at the Tokyo Conference, and reducing the many barriers to doing business. Establishing relations with Pakistan and other neighbors that will limit outside pressures and threats, and insurgent sanctuaries on Afghanistan's border. Persuading the US, other donors, NGCO, and nations will to provide advisors to furnish the needed aid effort through at least 2018, and probably well beyond.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

492. Losing the "Forgotten War" The U.S. Strategic Vacuum in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
President Obama has addressed the need to deal with Ukraine and the Islamic State in speeches and at the NATO Ministerial meeting Afghanistan, however, has become the forgotten war at a time when the Taliban is making steady gains, civilian casualties are rising there is still no effective Afghan government the Afghan economy is in crisis, and there still are no clear plans for any post 2014 aspect of transition.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

493. The "Home Game" Counting Violent Extremism within NATO

Author:
Jacqueline Page
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
As the complex global security environment faced by NATO members continues to evolve in the coming years, terrorism – waged by actors both in and outside of their borders – will remain a vexing challenge. For over a decade, NATO's counterterrorism strategy has been built on taking the fight abroad. Member nations have been intimately involved in this effort as contributors to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, to the Multi-National Force in Iraq and in a variety of smaller missions around the globe. In recent times, however, there has been growing attention to the threat posed by “homegrown” terrorism and foreign fighters returning from Syria and elsewhere to their home countries throughout the Euro-Atlantic area.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and International Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

494. TSG IntelBrief: Foreign Fighters in Syria: A Growing Threat

Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The number of foreign fighters is high, 12,000 and counting, and the spread of countries they come from covers much of the globe. Two recent events involving foreign fighters show the radicalizing influence of the war. With the support to bolster Syria's more secular rebel forces at times inconsistent and tepid, the lack of an alternative has accelerated a natural gravitation towards extremist elements. It will be hard to know which returnees pose a threat, and harder still to deal with them. Given that the number of foreign fighters already exceeds those that went to Afghanistan, government resources will be severely strained to monitor all returnees and will have to rely on the help of local communities.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Syria

495. Afghanistan's Political Transition

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ashraf Ghani was inaugurated as president of Afghanistan on 29 September, under difficult circumstances. He inherited a government that is running out of money and losing ground to a rising insurgency. His ability to confront those problems and other challenges as foreign troops withdraw will be shaped by the aftermath of the political contest that brought him to power. Forming a national unity government with his election rival Abdullah Abdullah presents opportunities to stabilise the transition, preventing further erosion of state cohesiveness. Yet, it also poses risks, particularly of factionalism within Kabul, which could undermine urgently needed reforms. Given the international role in developing the agreements that have created this new partnership, and the absence of mechanisms to resolve internal differences, the international community should serve as a guarantor of Kabul's new political order and, if necessary, mediate any serious disputes that arise.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Islam, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

496. Licensing Afghan Opium for Medicinal Use: Why It Won't Work

Author:
David Mansfield and William A. Byrd
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
With large increases in Afghan opium cultivation and production in 2013 and 2014, there is a risk that resulting frustration may give rise to a search for extreme but unproductive solutions. There are no easy solutions to the illegal narcotics problem. The proposal that Afghanistan could shift to licensed production of opium for pain medications will not work. Due to severe problems with governance, rule of law and security, opium licensing in Afghanistan would be subject to extremely high leakages. Afghanistan's comparative advantage in supplying the illicit market means that it would likely expand cultivation to meet demand in both markets. Afghanistan is a high-cost producer of opium, and prices for licensed opium are much lower than on the illegal market, so profits might well be marginal or even negative. Existing producers of licensed opiates— Australia, Turkey, India, France and others—would strongly oppose any move to let Afghanistan become a competitor on the licensed market. Even if a more liberalized market for opiates is envisioned, technological advances and modern techniques in other countries mean that Afghanistan could not be a competitive producer.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Turkey, India, France, and Australia

497. Reconciliation and research in Afghanistan: an analytical narrative

Author:
Thomas Waldman
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This article examines the evolution of western policy towards the idea of pursuing negotiations with the Taliban, or 'reconciliation', in Afghanistan and the role that research and expert opinion played in that process. The official western position has evolved iteratively from initial rejection to near complete embrace of exploring the potential for talks. It is widely assumed that the deteriorating security situation was the sole determinant of this major policy reversal, persuading decisionmakers to rethink what had once been deemed unthinkable. Moreover, given the politicized and sensitive nature of the subject, we might expect the potential for outside opinion to influence decision-makers to be low. Nevertheless, this article demonstrates that it would be a mistake to underestimate the role that research and expert knowledge played-the story is more nuanced and complex. Research coalesced, sometimes prominently, with other key drivers to spur and shape policy change. Importantly, it often took experts to make sense of events on the ground, especially where the failure of the military approach was not recognized, understood or palatable to those in official circles. Research interacted with changing events, policy windows, the emergence of new personalities and the actions of various intermediaries to shape emerging positions. More broadly, the case of reconciliation in Afghanistan reveals the difficulties and challenges, but also the variety of opportunities and techniques, for achieving research influence in conflict-affected environments.
Topic:
Security and Environment
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

498. The blue helmet blues

Author:
Richard Gowan
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Imagine a dystopian future in which NATO, struggling against Islamist terrorism, has to deploy troops on a constant basis across Africa and the Middle East. Then all of a sudden it is struck by a series of calamities: more than 40 personnel are taken hostage in the Middle East, soldiers start dying on a weekly basis on the edge of the Sahara and an operation to handle an outbreak of ebola begins to spiral out of control. NATO, you might expect, would give up in exhaustion. After Afghanistan, western powers have little appetite for quagmires.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, and Middle East

499. Expert view: Afghanistan

Author:
Michael Keating
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This has been a roller-coaster year for Afghans. It has included vigorous presidential and provincial election campaigns, a protracted political crisis, the formation of a government of national unity, the inauguration of a president with big new ideas, a financial crunch, devastating natural disasters, widening Taliban attacks and a surge in the number of Afghans being killed. Meanwhile, the US-led International Security Assistance Force is winding down and will conclude in December.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

500. Soldiers of Misfortune?

Author:
Thomas R. Mockaiti
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Private contractors have become an essential but highly problematic element in the U.S. military's total force structure. The Army in particular relies heavily on contractors to perform duties that free up Soldiers for combat roles. The vast majority of these civilian employees provide logistical and technical support. They build facilities, do laundry, and staff dining halls on U.S. bases at home and abroad. While some of these contractors have been involved in issues of waste, fraud, and abuse, these issues do not have a significant Effect on the conduct of contingency operations, especially counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, and Arabia