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58111. Working for Women, Worldwide

Author:
Paula J. Dobriansky
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In 1995, at one of the largest international conferences ever held, women from around the world, representing both governments and the private sector, gathered in Beijing to set forth a platform for the political, economic, and social empowerment of women.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
United States and Beijing

58112. Investment-Specific and Multifactor Productivity in Multi-Sector Open Economies: Data and Analysis

Author:
Luca Guerrieri, Dale W. Henderson, and Jinill Kim
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In the last half of the 1990s, labor productivity growth rose in the U.S. and fell almost everywhere in Europe. We document changes in both capital deepening and multifactor productivity (MFP) growth in both the information and communication technology (ICT) and non-ICT sectors. We view MFP growth in the ICT sector as investment-specific productivity (ISP) growth. We perform simulations suggested by the data using a two-country DGE model with traded and nontraded goods. For ISP, we consider level increases and persistent growth rate increases that are symmetric across countries and allow for costs of adjusting capital-labor ratios that are higher in one country because of structural differences. ISP increases generate investment booms unless adjustment costs are too high. For MFP, we consider persistent growth rate shocks that are asymmetric. When such MFP shocks affect only traded goods (as often assumed), movements in 'international' variables are qualitatively similar to those in the data. However, when they also affect nontraded goods (as suggested by the data), movements in some of the variables are not. To obtain plausible results for the growth rate shocks, it is necessary to assume slow recognition.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

58113. Financial Market Developments and Economic Activity during Current Account Adjustments in Industrial Economies

Author:
Steven B. Kamin, Sylvain Leduc, and Hilary Croke
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Much has been written about prospects for U.S. current account adjustment, including the possibility of what is sometimes referred to as a “disorderly correction”: a sharp fall in the exchange rate that boosts interest rates, depresses stock prices, and weakens economic activity. This paper assesses some of the empirical evidence bearing on the likelihood of the disorderly correction scenario, drawing on the experience of previous current account adjustments in industrial economies. We examined the paths of key economic performance indicators before, during, and after the onset of adjustment, building on the analysis of Freund (2000).
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

58114. International Risk-Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks

Author:
Sylvain Leduc, Giancarlo Corsetti, and Luca Dedola
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A central puzzle in international finance is that real exchange rates are volatile and, in stark contradiction to efficient risk-sharing, negatively correlated with cross-country consumption ratios. This paper shows that a standard international business cycle model with incomplete asset markets augmented with distribution services can account quantitatively for these properties of real exchange rates. Distribution services, intensive in local inputs, drive a wedge between producer and consumer prices, thus lowering the impact of terms-of-trade changes on optimal agents' decisions. This reduces the price elasticity of tradables separately from assumptions on preferences.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

58115. An Assessment of the Impact of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: 1991-2004

Author:
Alain P. Chaboud and Owen Humpage
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We analyze the short-term price impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention operations between 1991 and 2004, using official data from Japan's Ministry of Finance. Over the period as a whole, we find some evidence of a modest "against the wind" effect, but interventions do not have value as a forecast that the exchange rate will move in a direction consistent with the operations. Interventions conducted between 1995 and 2002, which were large and infrequent, met with a much higher degree of success. For the most recent episode of intervention, in 2003 and 2004, despite the record size and frequency of the overall episode, it is difficult to statistically distinguish the pattern of exchange rate movements on intervention days from that of all the days in that particular subperiod, showing little effectiveness. Still, while the evidence of Japanese intervention effectiveness is modest overall, it appears to be stronger than that found using similar techniques for U.S. intervention operations conducted in the 1980s and 1990s.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan and Israel

58116. Going the Distance: The U.S. Tsunami Relief Effort

Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
On December 26, 2004, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake off the west coast of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia, triggered a tsunami—a series of giant waves—that inundated coastal areas of Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India, and Malaysia, as well as Indian Ocean islands and parts of East Africa.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and East Africa

58117. Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit

Author:
Luca Guerrieri, Christopher Gust, and Christopher Erceg
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper, we use an open economy DGE model (SIGMA) to assess the quantitative effects of fiscal shocks on the trade balance in the United States. We examine the effects of two alternative fiscal shocks: a rise in government consumption, and a reduction in the labor income tax rate. Our salient finding is that a fiscal deficit has a relatively small effect on the U.S. trade balance, irrespective of whether the source is a spending increase or tax cut. In our benchmark calibration, we find that a rise in the fiscal deficit of one percentage point of GDP induces the trade balance to deteriorate by less than 0.2 percentage point of GDP. Noticeably larger effects are only likely to be elicited under implausibly high values of the short-run trade price elasticity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

58118. The Sources of Stigma for Means-Tested Government Programs

Author:
Jennifer Stuber and Mark Schlesinger
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Wood Johnson Health Society Scholars Program
Abstract:
Stigma has been shown to discourage participation in means-tested government programs. Prior research cannot explain why this deterrent effect varies in intensity across different individuals and programs. We develop a more comprehensive model of the possible determinants of stigma associated with means-tested programs than has previously been suggested by studies of welfare stigma. We test hypotheses using unique data based on interviews with 1405 respondents in ten states and the District of Columbia. The results suggest that there are two distinct forms of stigma related to participation in means-tested government programs: one related to self-identity, the other to threats of negative treatment. Both forms of stigma are more pronounced for welfare compared to Medicaid. The sources of stigma identified by conventional treatments of welfare stigma (e.g. individual attributions of responsibility for poverty) have significant explanatory power, but neglect other important influences. We find that stigma is exacerbated by poor health and by minority status. Stigma is also fostered by the ways in which means-tested programs are implemented, including negative interactions with case workers, long waiting times and for Medicaid, applications for benefits in alternative enrollment sites such as health centers or hospitals. These findings suggest new points of leverage for addressing the potentially deleterious consequences of stigma.
Topic:
Development, Government, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Colombia

58119. U.S. Policy in Colombia

Author:
William Wood
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
LEE H. HAMILTON: Good morning to all of you. Good morning. Thank you very much for coming to the Wilson Center this morning. We're delighted to have you here.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, and South America

58120. Nontraditional Security Threats in the U.S.-Mexico Bilateral Relationship: Overview and Recommendations

Author:
John Bailey
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Before September 11, 2001, security—primarily, anti-drug trafficking efforts—ranked among the top two or three issues in Mexico-U.S. relations. Since that day, security has dominated the U.S. policy agenda in foreign affairs, including the bilateral agenda. Mexico, which had put more emphasis on migration reform, has accepted the new reality as defined by the United States. This background paper identifies some of the more pressing nontraditional security threats in the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship and suggests recommendations to address them. Inevitably somewhat U.S.-centric, my approach is to cover a good deal of ground in broad-brush strokes, providing only enough detail to buttress the main points and illustrate the recommendations.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico