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57782. Middle East Missile Proliferation, Israeli Missile Defense, and the ABM Treaty Debate
- Author:
- Dore Gold
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- For most of the Cold War period, the spread of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction to the Middle East was severely constrained by the existence of a global regime of arms control agreements and export controls that was chiefly supported by both the U.S. and the Soviet Union. But in the last decade this regime has crumbled: In the Middle East, Iran and Iraq are seeking to build their own indigenous military-industrial infrastructure for the manufacture of intermediate-range (500-5,000 kilometers) missiles, and thus reduce their dependence on imports of whole missile systems, as was the case in the 1970s and 1980s. Intercontinental strategic-range systems are also planned. These efforts are being backed not just by other rogue states, like North Korea, but by no less than Russia itself, which has abandoned the cautiousness toward proliferation that was demonstrated by the former Soviet Union. Despite Washington's efforts to stop these trends through the United Nations monitoring of Iraq and limited sanctions against Iran, the build-up of Middle Eastern missile capabilities has only worsened, especially since 1998 which saw Iran's testing of the 1,300-kilometer-range Shahab-3 and the total collapse of the UN monitoring effort. Iraq has preserved considerable elements of its missile manufacturing infrastructure, continuing to produce short-range missiles, and with large amounts of missile components still unaccounted for. Nor did the administration stop the flow of Russian missile technology to Iran. "The proliferation of medium-range ballistic missiles," CIA Director George Tenet testified on March 21, 2000, "is significantly altering strategic balances in the Middle East and Asia." Clearly, the Middle East is far more dangerous for Israel than it was in 1991 at the end of the Gulf War. While diplomatic energies over the last decade have been focused on the Arab-Israeli peace process, a major policy failure has taken place that has left Israel and the Middle East far less secure. Not only will Israel's vulnerability increase, but on the basis of these planned missile programs, the vulnerability of Europe and the Eastern United States is likely to be far greater in the next five to ten years, as well. Thus, an entirely new strategic situation is emerging in the Middle East requiring far more intense efforts in ballistic missile defense on the part of the states of the Atlantic Alliance in order to assure their own security and enhance Middle Eastern regional stability. With Russia playing such a prominent role in the disintegration of key elements of the proliferation regime, Moscow's objections to robust missile defenses on the basis of the ABM Treaty should not serve as a constraint on the development and deployment of future missile defense systems. The Russian argument that the ABM Treaty is the cornerstone of global arms control rings hollow. The arms control regime for the Middle East has completely broken down and cannot reliably serve as the primary basis for protecting national security in the new strategic environment of this region. The most promising way of assuring the defense of Israel, the U.S., and the Western alliance is through a concerted effort to neutralize the growing missile threat with robust missile defenses, combined with the deterrence capabilities that they already possess.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Soviet Union
57783. The End of the Post-Gulf War Era
- Author:
- Dore Gold
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Three basic conditions prevailed when the Arab-Israeli peace process began in 1991 in Madrid and accelerated in 1993 at Oslo. First, the Soviet Union crumbled and eventually collapsed, removing what had since 1955 been the strategic backbone of the Arab military option against the State of Israel. Second, Iraq was militarily crushed and under both UN sanctions and monitoring, and was therefore removed from the political and military calculus of relations between Israel and the Arab world. Third, Iran was still recovering from its eight-year war with Iraq and was far from ready to have an impact in the Middle East. Together, these three conditions created a unique moment of Pax Americana, maintained not just by virtue of American power, but by the consent of its potential rivals.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, War, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Soviet Union
57784. Overthrowing Saddam Hussein: The Policy Debate
- Author:
- Max Singer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi dictator, has biological weapons capable of killing hundreds of thousands of Israelis with infectious diseases such as anthrax. These weapons could be delivered either by missiles, by small pilotless planes, or by infecting the passengers of a plane landing at Ben-Gurion Airport with less than an ounce of agent spread through the plane's air conditioning system. Saddam also has at least several nuclear weapons that are missing only highly enriched uranium which he is likely to be able either to make himself or to buy this year.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
57785. The Pope's Millennium Visit to Israel
- Author:
- Dan V. Segre
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the 1950s, the French Catholic academician, playwright, and former Ambassador to the U.S., Paul Claudel, asked the cultural attachè of the Israeli Embassy in Paris to convey the following message to Martin Buber: Now that the Jews had recovered their sovereignty, would they consider granting citizenship to Jesus, thereby putting an end to his "statelessness" status both for Judaism and Christianity? This could contribute to the fight against anti-Semitism.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Paris
57786. Bringing Peace in from Without: How to End the Cold War in Korea
- Author:
- Tong Whan Park
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- From June 13 to 15, 2000, the first-ever summitry was held between the two Koreas since the peninsula's division at the end of World War II. The two heads of state produced a five-point agreement2 designed to launch an era of dialogue between the erstwhile enemies. As part of the agreement, a limited number of people with separated families have since traveled to each other's capital for a tearful reunion. The ground has been broken to re-link the countries by rail that would pass through the Demilitarized Zone. Bureaucrats of the two countries have engaged in a flurry of activity including high level talks and the historic visit by North Korea's defense minister to the South. Seoul's chaebols also got themselves busy to jump aboard the bandwagon heading north. And the new mood of detente peaked at the opening ceremony of the 27th Olympiad in Sydney when athletes from the two Koreas—albeit competing as separate national teams—marched together following a hastily concocted flag with an image of the Korean peninsula.
- Political Geography:
- North Korea, Korea, Sydney, and Korean Peninsula
57787. Economic Recovery in the DPRK: Status and Prospect
- Author:
- Nicholas Eberstadt
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- Early in September 2000, a front- page story in the Washington Post nicely captured the newly prevailing view among international "North Korea watchers" concerning the DPRK economy's current condition and immediate outlook.. The article, titled "North Korea Back From The Brink", reported that "[visitors and other analysts] say the North Korean economy is growing for the first time in nine years, the mass starvation is over....". It remarked upon "nascent signs of recovery—more traffic on the roads, more livestock in the fields, peasants who look healthy." The story further noted that the Republic of Korea Bank of Korea (BOK) recently "concluded—with some surprise—that the North's economy grew last year by a sustainable 6.2 percent, the first growth since 1990", and quoted the South Korean central bank as stating that "it's reasonable to predict that the worst is over for the North Korean economy".
- Political Geography:
- Washington, South Korea, and North Korea
57788. Monitoring the Dynamics of Democratization in Korea: The Korea Democracy Barometer Surveys
- Author:
- Doh Chull Shin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- The past decade has witnessed a growth in major efforts to study mass reactions to democratic regime change on a global scale. Since 1991 Professor Richard Rose, of the Center for the Study of Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland, has been conducting the New Democracies Barometer surveys and the New Russia and Baltic Barometer surveys to compare the mass experience of democratization in post-Communist countries. Since 1995 Dr. Mata Lagos, of Market Opinion Research International in Santiago, Chile, has been conducting the Latinobarometro surveys on an annual basis to trace and compare the levels and sources of popular support for democracy and democratic reforms in 15 Latin American countries along with Spain. Most recently, in1999, Professor Michael Bratton of Michigan State University in the United States and Robert Mattes of the Institute for Democracy in South Africa launched the Afrobarometer to map mass attitudes toward democracy, markets, and civil society in a dozen African countries.
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, United States, Latin America, Spain, Korea, and Scotland
57789. Korea-United States Industrial Alliance
- Author:
- Youn-Suk Kim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- Historically, Korea has been under the influence of its ambitious neighbors, China, Japan and Russia, which causes Korea's intense concern for its long-term independence. Through the budding signs of North-South Korea unification, Korea perceives that long-term peace and security derive from having a close diplomatic and economic relationship with the United States as the most crucial ingredient. Thus President Kim Dae Jung of South Korea and his counterpart of the North, Kim Jong II, at the June meeting emphasized the continued presence of United States troops in the Korean peninsula for stability and peace in East Asia even after the unification. In association with the United States economy, the unified Korea could play a major role as a regional balancer, giving stability to a new order in Northeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole.
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Japan, China, Korea, and Northeast Asia
57790. Economic Voting in Korean Elections after Democratization
- Author:
- Hyeon-Woo Lee
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- Many factors influence the electoral results. One of them in the western countries is the economic condition. Whether they are personal or national economic conditions, the importance of economic factors in elections cannot be ignored. This paper focuses on economic voting and investigates whether economic voting worked in the Korean elections after 1987. It is generally accepted that Korean democratization was achieved in 1987. Before that year, democratization was the prevailing issue in elections because many Koreans still thought that the government was an authoritarian regime. Though the opposition parties insisted political democracy as first priority and urgent task required for Korea to accomplish, the ruling parties emphasized efficient and fast economic development led by ruling elites.
- Political Geography:
- Korea