Political Geography: - CIAO Search Results

55701. Turkey: Thwarted Ambition

Author:: Simon V. Mayall
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: At the end of the Cold War every country was forced to reexamine the fundamental assumptions that had formed their security policies for the last 45 years. Among the "victors" of the Cold War, few countries were faced with a more disparate set of new circumstances than Turkey. Unlike the United States and Western Europe, "victory" for Turkey had a very ambivalent quality. Almost overnight Turkey moved from being the buttressing flank of one strategic region, to the epicenter of a new one.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States and Turkey

55702. NATO and Humanitarian Action in the Kosovo Crisis

Author:: Marc Sommers, Larry Minear, and Ted van Baarda
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: The world's response to the Kosovo crisis dramatizes the increased role of international military forces in humanitarian action. Some people view this development positively as the harnessing of the military for humanitarian tasks; others are alarmed at the perceived militarization of humanitarian action. A workshop convened by the Netherlands Foreign Ministry in The Hague on November 15-16, 1999, assessed these different perspectives on the Kosovo experience in the light of research it had commissioned.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: Kosovo and Netherlands

55703. Human Development: The World After Copehagen

Author:: Richard Jolly
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: John W. Holmes' talk for the first annual meeting of the Academic Council on the United Nations System ( ACUNS ) in 1988 was titled Looking Backwards and Forwards. I would like to put the emphasis in this article on looking forwards—from Copenhagen plus one to the year 2000, 2015, or even 2030. In short, I would like to direct attention to the world that the United Nations will need to face in the years ahead, and explore how human advance can be carried forward over that period, rather than dwell on the predicaments in which the world is at present caught up or through which the UN has struggled over the fifty years of its existence.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United Nations

55704. Humanitarian Action and Politics: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:: S. Neil MacFarlane and Larry Minear
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: This study reviews the intersection between politics and humanitarian action in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Approaching humanitarian action as including both assistance and protection, as well as emergency aid and reconstruction inputs, the study analyzes the intrusion of political agendas into humanitarian responses to the conflict and assesses the damages of the resulting politicization of activities.

55705. More Teaching About International Organization: Selected Syllabi

Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: No abstract is available.

55706. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Greg Gause
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Steve: My impression is that your group has identified the variables that might affect the way the peace process goes. In fact, you probably have too many to factor into any one scenario. One way to proceed might be to divide the variables into First Order and Second Order variables: First Order variables would be those in which a change would have direct and immediate consequences on the peace process; Second Order would be those in which change would have an indirect and/or longer-term effect. You rightly have problematized the question of just what direction your vectors might take. This distinction would add intensity as a second element of the vector.
Political Geography:: Middle East

55707. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Rick Hermann
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: My first cut at the hierarchy of driving forces ranks Israeli-Palestinian bilateral factors as the most important and regional and global factors as secondary. Competition between global powers (USA, Russia, China) is currently not intense. None of them see the bilateral Israeli-Palestinian conflict as instrumentally critical to their broader strategic competition with each other. None see their security as centrally tied to this conflict, and, consequently, while interested not even the United States will commit enough resources at this point to overturn the forces driving the bilateral bargain. Competition among regional states is substantial, but the conflicts that do not involve Israel do not involve states powerful enough to project their competition into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For example, Iranian v. Turkish, or Iranian v. Saudi Arabian, or Syrian v. Iraq, or India v. Pakistan might tangentially connect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, mostly in the realm of rhetoric and symbol manipulation. None of these states, however, are strong enough to see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an instrumental regional manifestation of their broader strategic conflict. The primary determinants of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation process in the short-term are the conflicting ambitions and calculations made by Israelis and Palestinians. Forces at the global and regional level will affect these bargaining calculations, (affecting both relative coercive leverage and positive reassurance) but they will not impose additional sources of conflict. My examination of global and regional forces, will follow my construction of the primary bilateral dynamic. I do not think global and regional factors will upset the short-term prediction I will make for the bilateral Palestinian-Israeli relationship. They may play a big role in shaping longer-term predictions.
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

55708. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Bruce Jentleson
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: There are two issues I want to raise regarding our basic approach of focusing on driving forces to trace scenarios and predict outcomes. First is the question of the time frame of the outcomes to which we are driving. I ask this with particular reference to the "violent collapse" outcome. There are numerous permutations here that we need to differentiate. I'm not adept enough to graph it on the computer, but here are the permutations: Two versions of violent collapse: violent collapse as some sort of end state for whatever our timeframe is, or violent collapse as an intermediate outcome which then comes back together and leads to "two state" or "autonomy"; If violent collapse as an intermediate stage, then what conditions make an ensuing path to Palestinian state more likely, and what conditions for autonomy? Or what 's the story line for getting to either of these without going through violent collapse? And what are the parameters and criteria for what we mean by "violent" (Singer and Small had their figures for how many deaths equal a war; how many equal "violent") and by "collapse", as distinct from pause or suspension of talks?
Political Geography:: Middle East

55709. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: David E. Spiro
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Several interesting observations came out of our first conference. We realized that the mainstream academic view on the Middle East peace process has changed dramatically—from a belief that there would never be a peace to confidence that the peace process would not be derailed. In trying to make predictions that are not driven by newspaper headlines, we used a fairly uncontroversial laundry list of systemic variables, but we could not agree on which way they would effect the outcome. My aim in this memorandum is to review my past views on the Middle East peace process as an exercise in exploring what changed—both in the Middle East, and in my own implicit assumptions. I will amend my conclusions about the past by examining what has happened since the Oslo Accords. Finally, I will suggest, by way of conclusion, what driving forces will affect the future.
Political Geography:: Middle East

55710. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Janice Stein
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The two-state solution includes continuing but declining violence over time against Israeli and Palestinian civilians as the Palestinian state becomes entrenched and its legitimacy and authority grows, Palestinian leaders develop a commitment to the status quo, and the opposition in Israel reluctantly accepts the permanence of a Palestinian state. If the Palestinian state is poorly institutionalized, violence against Palestinian and Israeli citizens may well increase over time.
Topic:: Development and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

55711. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Don Sylvan
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Steve asked each of us to do the following: "Each participant will return to the next meeting with arguments on these seven driving forces. These arguments will include: Logic: what is the causal logic by which the driving force impacts on the intervening and dependent variables. Probability: what is the probability estimate of the effect. Hierarchy: is there an identifiable hierarchy among these driving forces.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: Middle East

55712. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Steven Weber
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The election of Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel threw into flux the Middle East peace process. What in early 1996 seemed to many observers the almost inevitable "working out" of a decades-long conflict that had gradually become unsustainable on all sides, was by late 1996 seen more clearly as part of a contingent unfolding set of events which could drive the region in more than one direction, including backwards toward explicit conflict and even war. This presents unique theoretical, analytic, and policy opportunities.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: Middle East

55713. The New National Security Environment and its Impact on the Civilic-Military Relations in Bulgaria

Author:: Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: Civil-military relations as one of the indicators and factors for the consolidat ion of democracy in the national and international societies are undergoing deep - in some cases, or more gradual changes - in others. The absence of a univers al theory of how the relations between civil society and its military should loo k like is no reason to neglect the various sources of transformation in the civi l-military relations' field: First, the changing mission of the democratic military in the post-Cold War era; Second, the high-tech and especially the infotech revolutions that change largel y the roles of the military profession and its missions; Third, the social processes of the less developed South, or the so called "third " or "developing world" and, Fourth, the democratic transitions in the postcommunist or rather post-totalitar ian socialist world. Bulgaria is subjected to deep systemic social changes as a former totalitarian s ocialist society and state. At the same time the post-Cold War global, regional and sub-regional security situation strongly, and in some cases even decisively , motivates the national security and the more general social transformations an d adaptations. Bulgarian society and its military component cannot be isolated from the revolutionary technological and especially information technological ch anges - another major factor of understanding the complexity of the present situ ation in this country and in its armed forces.
Topic:: National Security, Military Affairs, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:: Europe and Bulgaria

55714. NATO Enlargement: Two Looks from Outside

Author:: Laszlo Nagy and Valeri Ratchev
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: Bulgaria’s missing institutional or effective bilateral contact pillars of national security, the conscientious alienation of Bulgaria by Russia and the treatment of the country by the west as a partner of secondary or even lesser importance endangers the very integrity of the Bulgarian society, the security of the Balkan subregion as well as the stability of Europe in general. Bulgaria desperately needs an anchor for its national security system and Laszlo Nagy’s and Valeri Ratchev’s considerations add importantly for the clarification of the issue. This Research Report is a part of the research activity of ISIS of openly and honestly assessing the needs, interests and the possible solutions of the Bulgarian national security dilemmas in the context of an All-European system of cooperation and stability.
Topic:: NATO, International Cooperation, National Security, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Bulgaria

55715. After Hebron: Prospects for the Peace Process

Author:: Zalman Shoval
Publication Date:: 03-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: The Hebron agreement is now finally in place. During the months that it took to reach that point, some must have been reminded of what the nineteenth century British Prime Minister Lord Palmerstone once said about the Schleswig-Holstein question: there were only three people who understood it - one of whom was dead, one was in an asylum, and he himself had forgotten it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Middle East

55716. Saudi Arabia in the 1990s: Stability and Foreign Policy

Author:: Mordechai Abir
Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: The stability of Saudi Arabia (and the Persian Gulf as a whole) is crucially important to the world's industrial countries. According to the Gulf Center of Strategic Studies, "oil is expected to account for 38 percent of all the world consumption of energy until 2015, compared to 39 percent in 1993. Increasing world-wide demand for oil, now about 74 million barrels per day, is projected to rise by 2015 to about 110 million" (Gulf Report, London, July 1997). Over 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia alone controls 25 percent of the total.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Saudi Arabia

55717. Demarcating an Israeli-Palestinian Border: Geographic Considerations

Author:: David Newman
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: Maps are a very important part of the political process of conflict resolution known as the peace process. Maps are important parts of all territorial conflicts. We often walk around with the idea of a map in our head and think we know what we are talking about, but often we do not.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Peace Studies, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

55718. Turkey Between Secularism and Islamism

Author:: Jacob M. Landau
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: When Mustafa Kamal (Ataturk) founded the Republic of Turkey in 1923 (he was its president until his death fifteen years later), he set as his main objective the modernization of the new republic. His preferred means was speedy, intensive secularization and, indeed, every one of his reforms was tied up with disestablishing other Islamic institutions from their hold on Turkey's politics, economics, society, and cultural life.
Topic:: Government, Islam, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

55719. The Northeast Asian Security Setting

Author:: Sheldon W. Simon
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: We may now be experiencing one of those relatively rare periods in world affairs when the structure of the international system does not dominate foreign policies. While the old cold war alliances have not completely disappeared from U.S. security policy, their ability to determine reflexively America's foreign relations on issues from Bosnia in Europe to the Spratly islands in the Pacific has greatly atrophied. For other states, too, domestic considerations and nearby regional concerns take precedence over alliances with remote great powers whose reliability is problematic in this new era. To better understand this unfamiliar international security environment, analysts should concentrate on internally generated alternative national visions of security which, in the aggregate, are creating a new, innovative structure of international politics.
Political Geography:: America, Europe, and Northeast Asia

55720. Changing U.S.-Korean Security Relations

Author:: Edward A. Olsen
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: United States-Korea security relations are experiencing a period of dynamic change that raises serious questions about the way that the relationship will evolve during the 21st Century. A number of well-known factors have provoked this phase. The end of the U.S.-Soviet cold war, North Korea's use of its nuclear card to engage the United States in a broader dialogue, South Korea's pursuit of diverse multilateral approaches to its security to shore up the U.S.-ROK alliance, and the emergence of Chinese and Japanese assertiveness in the regional balance of power, cumulatively have altered the context in which Washington and Seoul conduct their bilateral security relations. Both allies are struggling to come to grips with these new—and sometimes troubling—circumstances.
Political Geography:: United States, South Korea, and Korea

55721. The Viability of U.S. Security Strategy Toward the Korean Peninsula

Author:: William J. Taylor, Jr. and Abraham Kim
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The end of the cold war resulted in a mixed bag of challenges in the Northeast Asia region. The Soviet threat is gone, but the danger of regional instability is not. Lingering conflicts, old rivalries, and security challenges pose an uncertain future for the Asia-Pacific. The U.S. military presence still remains an important stabilizer in the region. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense, William Perry stated: "It is [the U.S. military] presence that the countries of the [Asia-Pacific] region consider a critical variable in the East Asia security equation.... [and] the most important factor in guaranteeing stability and peace."
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, South Korea, and North Korea

55722. North Korea and the United Nations

Author:: Samuel S. Kim
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: On 17 September 1991, the first day of its (46th) annual session, the United Nations General Assembly admitted the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) as the 160th and 161st member states. This historical turnabout was made possible by what had already happened in the Security Council five weeks earlier. Indeed, the 3001st meeting of the Security Council on 8 August 1991 may well be remembered as one of the remarkable events or nonevents in the annals of global high politics in the world organization. Since 1947 the Korean question, in a great variety of contentious manifestations, has proved to be one of the most intractable problems constandy intruding upon wider East-West geopolitical and ideological rivalries in and out of the world organization. Yet, on this day the Security Council devoted only five minutes—between 11:30am and 11:35am EST to be exact—to finally crossing the Rubicon on divided Korea. Without any debate, the Council unanimously adopted the report of the Committee on the Admission of New Members concerning the applications of the two Koreas for admission to membership in the United Nations.
Topic:: United Nations
Political Geography:: North Korea

55723. North Korea's Approaches to the United States and Japan

Author:: B.C. Koh
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: North Korea's approach to the United States is arguably one of the few success stories emanating from Pyongyang. While the story is still unfolding, what has transpired thus far has clearly benefited North Korea in both tangible and intangible ways. By contrast, North Korea's approach to Japan has produced but meager results thus far. Potentially, however, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) stands to profit immensely should its quest for diplomatic normalization with Japan bear fruit.
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and North Korea

55724. Japan's Policy Toward the Two Koreas in the Post-Cold War Era

Author:: Hong Nack Kim
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: During the cold war era, Japan's Korea policy was geared to the preservation of the status quo on the Korean peninsula by way of supporting the Republic of Korea (ROK) both politically and economically, while refusing to recognize the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). However, Japan's foreign policy in general and its Korea policy in particular had to make some significant adjustments in the aftermath of the collapse of the Communist regimes in the Soviet Union and Eastern European nations, which ended the cold war in Europe, and a train of rapid developments on and around the Korean peninsula in the post-cold war era.
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, and Korea

55725. U.S. Policies Toward the Two Koreas

Author:: Larry Niksch
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The South Korean government has announced that it would affect a delay in the inauguration of construction of light-water reactors in North Korea (DPRK). Seoul acted in response to North Korea's submarine-borne infiltration of military personnel into South Korea (ROK) and what appears to be North Korea's complicity in the assassination of an ROK diplomat in Vladivostok, Russia. The delay probably will be temporary. By the spring of 1997, a formula likely will be found that will allow construction to begin; and implementation of this important part of the October 1994 U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework will proceed.
Political Geography:: South Korea and North Korea

55726. Chinese and U.S. Relations with South Korea: Compatibilities and Conflicts

Author:: Robert Sutter
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Chinese-American Rivalry in Korea—A New "Great Game"?There has been considerable discussion in Washington, Beijing and Seoul in recent years about an emerging competition between the United States and China for influence in the Korean peninsula in general and in South Korea in particular. Some in China have voiced concern over alleged U.S. efforts to hold back and "contain" China's rising power and influence in East Asia. They have been impressed by the recent "gains" in U.S. influence with North Korea. Indeed, from their perspectives, the North Koreans have moved away from their traditionally antagonistic stance toward the United States to a foreign policy approach that appears to give top priority to reaching an arrangement with Washington that would allow for the continued survival of the North Korean regime, or at least a so-called "soft landing" for the increasingly troubled government. A possible scenario contrary to these Chinese analysts interests would see the end of the North Korean regime and the reunification of the peninsula by South Korea under arrangements carried out under the guidance and overall influence of the United States, with the support of Japan. In the view of such Chinese officials, such an arrangement would confront China with a major security problem in a crucial area of Chinese concern for the foreseeable future, gready weakening China's ability to exert power and influence in Asian and world affairs. It would give Americans interested in "containing" China a much more advantageous strategic position in East Asia than they now possess.
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, America, East Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

55727. China's Post-Cold War Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula

Author:: Thomas W. Robinson
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Domestic and International Determinants of Chinese Foreign Policy The period beginning with the Tiananmen Incident of June 1989 initiated the third period of Chinese foreign policy. The first coincided with the rule of Mao Zedong, 1949-1976, and the second extended, after a brief interregnum, from Deng Xiaoping's return to power in 1978 to the Beijing disturbances on 1989. While each period naturally exhibited its own special characteristics, all shared a set of three domestic and three international categories of determinants. To understand those of the post-Tiananmen period, one must inspect, for comparative purposes, those of the first two eras as well. In each era, it is clear that domestic determinants predominated, configuring not only the general direction of foreign policy but much of the specific content. The six determinants influenced Chinese policy toward the Korean peninsula as well, and it is therefore useful to provide a brief sketch in each instance.
Political Geography:: Korea

55728. Soviet and Russian Relations with the Two Koreas

Author:: Jane Shapiro Zacek
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This essay considers Soviet and then Russian relations with North and South Korea since 1988, which was a watershed year for Soviet policy toward northeast Asia. By that time, the Soviet leadership had reassessed basic ideological and security interests as well as the country's growing domestic economic needs. While the Communist Party was still in power and Mikhail Gorbachev was still General Secretary of the Central Committee (a position he had assumed upon the death of Konstantin Chernenko in March 1985), Marxist-Leninist ideology was playing an everdecreasing role in Party politics and policymaking. By 1987, Gorbachev began to stress the critical need to shift primary political power and the policymaking process from the Party to state institutions. He also emphasized the necessity of revamping the Soviet economy, which would be costly and would need foreign assistance. By 1988, the international communist movement, with the Soviet Union at its head, no longer was of interest to the Soviet leader. Rather, he was looking to reconfirm his country's role as a great power in the international arena, a power that could not be ignored in any regional political turmoil and subsequent settlement, whether in Africa, the Middle East, or Northeast Asia.
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, South Korea, Korea, and Northeast Asia

55729. Unification Policies and Strategies of North and South Korea

Author:: Young Whan Kihl
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The unification policies of North and South Korea have changed little from the days of the cold war era in both official lines and basic premise. The "new detente" between the two Koreas, which was to follow from the planned summitry between South Korean President Kim Young Sam and North Korean President Kim II Sung, was the casualty of the latter's sudden death in July 1994. Since then, instead of working toward peace, the frigid cold war atmosphere has returned to the Korean peninsula. Implementation of the historic Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation between the South and the North, signed 13 December 1991 and promulgated on 19 February 1992, has also proven to be more difficult than anticipated. Not surprisingly, the strategic goals of Seoul and Pyongyang remain far apart and irreconcilable despite official posturing and rhetoric.
Political Geography:: South Korea and North Korea

55730. The Dark Side of Social Capital

Author:: Martin Gargiulo and Mario Benassi
Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:: Research on social capital has stressed the advantages that networks can bring to managers and other economic actors. The enthusiasm with this "bright side" of social capital, however, neglects the fact that social bonds may at times have detrimental effects for a manager. This paper tries to correct the optimistic bias by looking at the "dark side" of social capital. Continuing benefits from social capital require that managers can adapt the composition of this social capital to the shifting demands of their task environment. This often implies the ability to create new ties while lessening the salience of some of the old bonds--if not severing them altogether. Available evidence, however, suggests that this ability may be encumbered by the same relationships purportedly responsible for the prior success of the manager. When and how this may happen is the central question we address in this paper. We argue that strong ties to cohesive contacts limit the manager's ability keep control on the composition of his network and jeopardize his adaptability to changing task environments. We test our ideas with data on managers operating in a special unit of a European high-technology firm.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: Europe

55731. Health Challenges for the 21st Century

Author:: Joshua Lederberg, Margaret Hamburg, Stephen Morse, Philip R. Reilly, and Timothy Wirth
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: New York Academy of Sciences
Abstract:: A crisis usually eliminates the time required to focus on the long-term: The urgent tends to drive out the important. Over the past several years, public policy perspectives on health care have often suffered from such myopia. In the United States, and in many other countries around the world, spiraling costs and shrinking budgets have focused health policy attention on perceived near-term crises over the allocation of (often public) resources. Because public resource allocation involves tax dollars, and because voters feel personally affected by changes in health services, the controversy enters the political arena. Moreover, politics itself is a very near-term business, with the ballot box and polling data providing its primary compass. In turn, this has added to the tendency to think of health care challenges in terms of immediate needs and to focus on the moment rather than on the consequences of today's changes in tomorrow's complex patterns.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and America

55732. As Mexico Imploded: Action and Inaction in the United States

Author:: Sidney Weintraub
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: On December 20, 1994, Mexican financial and monetary authorities raised the band within which the peso was permitted to fluctuate by 15 percent. They expected a short-lived shock, some economic adjustment, and then back to business as usual with a modestly devalued peso. Mexico, after all, had a history of currency devaluations, particularly during the transitions from one administration to another. Beyond that, Mexico was not a world monetary powerhouse and what it did would not normally attract great or sustained international attention.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Latin America, and Mexico

55733. Trading Places: The Caribbean Faces Europe and the Americas in the Twenty-first Century

Author:: Anthony T. Bryan
Publication Date:: 06-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: The challenges confronting the Caribbean with respect to trade with Europe and the Americas are essentially similar: the future of existing regimes of significant preferences, the need to plan for the long term without such preferences, and the development of a strategy to meet the transition. Unfortunately, the dialogue on these matters often has been characterized as a protocol for the Caribbean to “choose between friends.” Growth in the economies of the Caribbean will depend to a large extent on participation in or access to global trade arrangements. Ideally, a Caribbean strategy for participation should involve simultaneous access to as many pacts as possible. This paper is an overview of the legacy and the future of trade relations between the Caribbean and Europe, and between the Caribbean and the Americas, as these relationships constitute the Caribbean's most urgent global agenda.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, America, Europe, and Caribbean

55734. Possibilities and Realities of Cuba's Integration into the Caribbean: Perceptions of Cuban Entrepreneurs

Author:: Gerardo Gonzalez
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper analyzes how Cuban entrepreneurs perceive the importance of their role in Cuba's reintegration into the Caribbean. In the context of recent Cuban-Caribbean economic relations, Caribbean entrepreneurs have taken the lead, and Cuban entrepreneurs are trying to conduct business under changing and challenging conditions. As the Cuban economy gradually adapts to new national and international realities, an increasing number of Cuban firms are beginning to participate directly and actively in Cuba's external economic relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Cuba and Caribbean

55735. Trade Policy Options for Chile: A Quantitative Evaluation

Author:: Glenn W. Harrison and Thomas F. Rutherfod
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper examines the net economic benefits and government revenue implications for Chile of forming a free trade area with MERCOSUR as an associate member, forming a free trade area with NAFTA, and reducing its external tariff multilaterally and unilaterally. The research shows that NAFTA would benefit Chile, but Chile must obtain improved access in non-grain crops, one of its key export sectors, or NAFTA will result in losses for Chile. Chile will lose from the MERCOSUR agreement as presently constituted but can gain from participation in MERCOSUR by reducing its external tariff to between 6 percent and 8 percent. Such a lowering of the external tariff would lead to a reduction of costly, trade-diverting imports (on which Chile does not collect tariffs) from high-priced partner country suppliers. The paper indicates that Chile should continue to push for NAFTA membership, while moving toward broader multilateral trade liberalization. Additionally, collecting the value added tax at more uniform rates in Chile would reduce domestic distortions and enhance the effectiveness of trade policy reforms.
Topic:: Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance

55736. Privatization and Regulation: Lessons from Argentina and Chile

Author:: Luigi Manzetti
Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Some economists have argued that before governments privatize state-owned monopolies in public utilities, they should first try to promote competition. If this is not done, privatization does not produce gains in economic efficiency; instead, it fosters rent-seeking behavior by the new private ownership. Few empirical analyses of rent-seeking behavior for Latin America in post-privatization environments have been done — those that exist concentrate on economic issues and neglect important political motivations. The purpose of this paper is to fill that gap and address key issues of public policy by examining the cases of Chile and Argentina and providing a political explanation for why the Chilean and Argentine governments allowed rent-seeking behavior in important public utility markets. Based upon an analysis of these experiences, the paper then discusses the types of institutions most likely to avoid such negative consequences.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Political Economy

55737. Private Investment as a Financing Source for Microcredit

Author:: Carter Garber
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: In this paper, economist and development finance consultant Carter Garber examines the process of complementing donations and commercial bank credit with private investments as a source of capital for international microenterprise finance. First, he describes the large expectations for private capital in the rapid growth of microenterprise finance. Second, Garber discusses the varied sources of private capital, especially those involving socially responsible investment. The third and central section is an examination of eight “socially responsible investment” mechanisms that currently channel $27 million of U.S. private credit to microfinance lending institutions. Garber demonstrates the variety of available mechanisms and examines their track record to date. The final section identifies policy changes that will be necessary for these types of private investment in microenterprise to grow fast enough to meet the expected demand during the coming decade.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance

55738. Time to Reinvent APEC

Author:: Edward Lincoln and Kenneth Flamm
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, provides an opportunity for 18 countries with strong trade and investment ties to discuss a wide range of economic issues. APEC has scored two tangible achievements to date: a sweeping but vaguely worded 1994 pledge by its member states to open up to free trade and investment by 2010 and 2020, and a central role in the negotiation of the 1996 Information Technology Agreement (ITA). However, APEC is in danger of fading. When this year's summit begins on November 19, the United States must push for major reform of the APEC bargaining process if the organization is to have any chance of realizing its ambitious trade reform targets.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Asia

55739. Globaphobia: The Wrong Debate Over Trade Policy

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence and Robert E. Litan
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: The outcome of the fast-track debate that opened this month will determine whether the United States continues to lead the world toward a more open global economy or whether, for the first time since the end of World War II, it sends the opposite message.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

55740. Cato Institute's 15th Annual Monetary Conference

Author:: Anna J. Schwartz, Stanley Fischer, Jerry L. Jordan, Leland B. Yeager, Francisco Gil-Diaz, Roberto Salinas-Leon, A. James Meigs, Lawrence Kudlow, William A. Niskanen, Michael Prowse, and Bert Ely
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: On Tuesday, October 15, 1997 the Cato Institute continued its 15 year tradition of exploring pressing and timely issues in international fiscal policy with its meeting Money and Capital Flows in a Global Economy. Speakers including Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan; First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Stanley Fisher; and the Bank of Mexico's Vice Governor, Francisco Gil-Díaz, convened to sort through the pressing issues relevant to global capital flows that face the world economy.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Nagasaki

55741. Mixed Signals

Author:: Peter A. Hall and Robert J. Franzese Jr.
Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Plans for European Monetary Union are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the independence of the central bank can reduce inflation without any real economic effects. However, the theoretical and empirical bases for this claim rest on models of the economy that make unrealistic information assumptions and omit institutional variables other than the central bank. When the signaling problems between the central bank or other actors in the political economy are considered, we find that the character of wage bargaining conditions the impact of central bank independence by rendering the signals between the bank and the bargainers more or less effective. Greater independence can reduce inflation without major employment effects where bargaining is coordinated, but it brings higher levels of unemployment where bargaining is uncoordinated. Thus, currency unions like the EMU may require higher levels of unemployment to control inflation than their proponents envisage; they will have costs as well as benefits, costs which will be distributed unevenly among and within the member nations based on the changes induced in the status of the bank and of wage coordination.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

55742. The Academic-Industrial Symbiosis in German Chemical Research, 1905-1939

Author:: Jeffrey Johnson
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: This paper discusses academic-industrial relations in German chemical research from 1905 to the eve of World War II, considering four periods: the decade before World War I, the years of total war and postwar crisis (1916-1923), the renewed crisis (1929-1933), and finally the Nazi years. These periods saw, respectively, the creation of academic-style research laboratories with substantial industrial support; the emergence of industrially-funded organizations to subsidize chemical literature and educational institutions (as well as research); reductions in support for these organizations and in subsidies for contracted academic collaborators, but the expansion of postdoctoral fellowships funded by I.G. Farben; and finally the politicization and militarization of the academic-industrial symbiosis under National Socialism.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

55743. Capacity Losses, Reconstruction and Unfinished Modernization: The Chemical Industry in the Soviet Zone of Occupation (SBZ)/GDR 1945-1965

Author:: Rainer Karlsch
Publication Date:: 03-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Between the two World Wars, central Germany (the later GDR) was a preferred region for the foundation of new chemical plants. But after World War II, Soviet occupying troops dismantled 116 chemical plants in the Soviet Zone of Occupation. After the division of Germany became apparent, the Soviet Zone began a policy of self-sufficiency, but the chemical industry of the GDR dropped behind the West German chemical industry in the first postwar decade. After the "Sputnik shock" in 1957 and Khruschev's proclamation of an "economic race," the chemical industry in the Eastern Bloc moved into the center of the economic policy. In November 1958, the GDR enacted, as did the Soviet Union, a special chemical program. The main points of the program were the doubling of the chemical production within seven years, and an even greater increase in production of synthetic fibers and plastic. But the program failed. Decisive for the backsliding of the GDR's chemical industry was the uncoupling from the international division of labor and the integration into the East European economic zone. The GDR's Chemical Industry could find no real equivalent partner in Eastern Europe, and cooperation with the West was restricted for political reasons. The "opting for oil" of the Ulbricht-era became in the Honecker-era a policy of moving "back to coal." The maintaining of carbide chemistry finally ended in an energy crisis and an ecological fiasco.
Topic:: Cold War, Industrial Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

55744. Dominance through Cooperation - The Japan Strategy of I.G. Farben

Author:: Akira Kudo
Publication Date:: 03-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the Japan strategy of I.G. Farben in the inter-war period. It deals with export strategy as well as the licensing of technologies. It concludes that I.G. Farben suffered from a variety of difficulties in its Japan business, especially in the area of direct investment, and that, in spite of this, it succeeded in developing active business operations in Japan, especially in its exports of dyestuffs and nitrogenous fertilizer and in its licensing of the Haber-Bosch process for synthetic ammonia.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, Israel, and East Asia

55745. The Dynamics of Industry Structure: The Chemical Industry in the US, Western Europe, and Japan in the 1980s

Author:: Ashish Arora and Alfonso Gambardella
Publication Date:: 03-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the evolution of the structure of the chemical industry in the US, Europe, and Japan. Differences in institutions, historical conditions, and resource endowments across the three regions reinforce differences in initial conditions. However, technological innovation, the internationalization of the industry, and the development and operation of markets, especially markets for technology, capital, raw materials, and corporate control, are powerful forces encouraging convergence. Convergence is less marked at the level of the firm than at the level of the industry, and is more marked between the industries of Western Europe and the United States.
Topic:: Globalization and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and Europe

55746. Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits within the European Union

Author:: Mark Hallenberg and Jürgen. von Hagen
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Large government budget deficits are a concern in most industrialized countries. Two literatures in political economy argue that differences in political institutions explain much of the variation in the success of counties in their efforts to run small deficits. One group of authors considers how differences among electoral systems affect the size of budget deficits, while the second group concentrates on the governmental institutions which structure the formation of the yearly budget. Among the "electoral institutionalists", a consensus is beginning to emerge which treats proportional representation systems as a cause of high levels of public debt. In contrast, "fiscal institutionalists" argue that the presence of certain institutions in the decision-making process at the cabinet level, such as a strong finance minister or negotiated spending targets, lead to smaller deficits than in cases where such institutions are missing. We indicate that these two literatures complement one another. Electoral institutions matter because they restrict the type of budgetary institution at the governmental phase which a state has at its disposal. A strong finance minister is feasible in states where one-party governments are the norm, and such states usually have plurality electoral systems, while negotiated targets provide an alternative in multi-party governments. In multi-party governments, which are common in states with proportional representation, the coalition members are not willing to delegate to one actor the ability to monitor and punish the others for "defections" on the budget. The empirical section of the paper indicates a strong relationship between one-party governments and strong finance minister solutions within the European Union states on the one hand and multi-party or minority governments and targets on the other. Pooled time series regression results also support our contention that it is the presence or absence of one of these budgetary institutions, rather than the plurality/proportional representation dishotomy, which has the greatest impact on debt levels.
Topic:: International Organization and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

55747. A Strategy for Launching the Euro

Author:: Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: This paper studies the constraints placed by the Maastricht Treaty on the rates at which member currencies will exchange against the Euro at the start of stage 3 of economic and monetary union (EMU). The paper shows that the stage 3 bilateral conversion factors for EMU member currencies must correspond to closing market exchange rates as of December 31, 1998; furthermore, currency conversion rates into the Euro cannot be determined until that date. Moreover, official announcements about intended conversion factors will carry no credibility with markets, as market rates must be chosen over any prennounced rates according to the Treaty. Unless there is heavy official intervention in the runup to stage 3, EMU members' bilateral market rates will exhibit excessive volatility and may induce beggar-thy-neighbor policy behavior. On the other, hand, exchange-rate targeting may open the door to speculative currency crises. The only feasible solution appears a widely-publicized institutional reform to subjugate national central banks' policies entirely to the goal of intra-EMU exchange stability in the final months of stage 2.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

55748. European Integration and the Question of National Sovereignty

Author:: Lars Tragardh
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:: According to Ole Wæver, a leading student of the travails of the "New Europe," Western Europe is probably the part of the world that currently exhibits "the most advanced case of border fluidity and transgression of sovereignty." So dramatic are the processes underway that they have led otherwise prudent political scientists to turn to the trendy idiom of "postmodernity," meaning in the context of IR theory first and foremost "post-sovereignty." Thus John Ruggie has argued that what he sees as "the unbundling of territoriality" - i.e. the incipient decoupling of sovereignty and (nation)state - constitutes "nothing less than the emergence of the first truly postmodern international form." Similarly, Saskia Sassen notes that in the process of globalization the notion of a "national economy" has come to be replaced with that of a "global economy." As a consequence, she argues that while sovereignty and territory very much "remain key features of the international system," they have been "reconstituted and partly displaced onto other institutional areas outside the state." Thus, she concludes, "sovereignty has been decentered and territory partly de-nationalized."
Topic:: International Cooperation and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Europe

55749. Balancing Positive and Negative Integration: The Regulatory Options for Europe

Author:: Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: During the golden years from the 1950s to the mid-1970s, the industrial nations of Western Europe had the chance to develop specifically national versions of the capitalist welfare state - and their choices were in fact remarkably different (Esping-Andersen 1990). In spite of the considerable differences between the "Social-Democratic", "Corporatist" or "Liberal" versions, however, all were remarkably successful in maintaining full employment and promoting economic growth, while also controlling, in different ways and to different degrees, the destructive tendencies of unfettered capitalism in the interest of specific social, cultural, and/or ecological values (Scharpf 1991a; Merkel 1993). It was not fully realized at the time, however, how much the success of market-correcting policies did in fact depend on the capacity of the territorial state to control its economic boundaries. Once this capacity is lost, countries are forced into a competition for locational advantage which has all the characteristics of a Prisoner's Dilemma game (Sinn 1994). It reduces the freedom of national governments and unions to raise the regulatory and wage costs of national firms above the level prevailing in competing locations. Moreover, and if nothing else changes, the "competition of regulatory systems" that is generally welcomed by neoliberal economists (Streit/Mussler 1995) and politicians may well turn into a downward spiral of competitive deregulation and tax cuts in which all competing countries will find themselves reduced to a level of protection that is in fact lower than that preferred by any of them.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

55750. Employment and the Welfare State: A Continental Dilemma

Author:: Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Estimates of the comparative health of the North American and Western European economies and societies have had their fashion cycles - from Servain-Schreiber's warnings that Europe was falling behind, rather than catching up with, American technological leadership in the 1960s, to European exasperation over American trade and budget deficits in the 1970s, to anxieties over Eurosclerosis in the early 1980s and over the American loss of international competitiveness in the late 1980s. Presently, by all accounts, the sick man is again Europe, with higher unemployment and much lower rates of job creation over the last two decades or so. The main problem is a rising level of long-term unemployment that mainly affects unskilled workers and, in most countries, young job seekers with low levels of schooling.
Topic:: International Cooperation and Political Economy
Political Geography:: America, Europe, North America, and Western Europe

55751. Democracy and Globalization

Author:: David Held
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: One of the most conspicuous features of politics at the turn of the millennium is the emergence of issues which transcend national frontiers. Processes of economic internationalization, the problem of the environment and the emergence of regional and global networks of communication are increasingly matters of concern for the international community as a whole. The nature and limits of national democracies have to be reconsidered in relation to processes of social and economic globalization; that is, in relation to shifts in the transcontinental or interregional scale of human social organization and of the exercise of social power. This paper seeks to explore these changing circumstances and to examine, albeit tentatively, their implications for democratic theory.
Topic:: Democratization, Globalization, and Politics

55752. Regulatory Competition and International Cooperation

Author:: Philipp Genschel and Thomas Plumper
Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Recent research has shown that regulatory competition does not necessarily lead to downward pressures on regulation, but may at times also push the level of regulation upwards. Extending David Vogel's "California effect" argument, this paper shows that such upward pressure may not only result directly from the dynamics of the competitive process but also from international cooperation. Evidence from two case studies on international capital market regulation is used to identify the conditions under which cooperation in the shadow of regulatory competition is likely to succeed or fail. The successful multilateral standardisation of banking capital requirements in the BIS is compared to failed attempts to harmonise interest taxation across EC member states.
Topic:: Government, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: California

55753. Electricity: Liberal Futures

Author:: Walt Patterson
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Like the international dimension of electricity discussed in Working Paper 1, the liberal dimension of electricity has emerged only recently, at least as a recognized concept. However, whereas the international dimension is genuinely new, the dimension now characterized as 'liberal' needs closer examination. The language of policy discourse is not always consistent. Until the 1990s, policy analysts habitually referred to the electricity industry as 'conservative', in the sense that it was resistant to change and deeply wary of risk. However, those who first acted to 'liberalize' electricity were themselves 'conservative', in conventional political terms, notably the governments of Chile and the UK in the 1980s. That apparent irony in itself suggests that 'liberalizing' electricity is a more subtle and complex process than the term itself might indicate.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Chile

55754. Talking about "Tribe": Moving from Stereotypes to Analysis

Author:: William Minter, Chris Lowe, Tunde Brimah, Pearl-Alice Marsh, and Monde Muyangwa
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:: For most people in Western countries, Africa immediately calls up the word "tribe." The idea of tribe is ingrained, powerful, and expected. Few readers question a news story describing an African individual as a tribesman or tribeswoman, or the depiction of an African's motives as tribal. Many Africans themselves use the word "tribe" when speaking or writing in English about community, ethnicity or identity in African states.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict and Nationalism
Political Geography:: Africa

55755. Landmines: Africa's Stake, Global Initiatives

Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:: The momentum for a comprehensive global ban on anti-personnel landmines is growing rapidly, and 1997 is a particularly decisive year. Africa is the most heavily mined continent, and African governments and non-governmental landmine campaigns are taking an increasingly prominent role in the global effort. The South African and Mozambican governments both announced comprehensive bans in February 1997, just as the 4th International NGO Conference on Landmines was convening in Maputo, Mozambique. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is being urged to quickly declare Southern Africa a mine-free zone, and non-governmental campaigns are gathering steam in many other African countries.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: Africa and United States

55756. Making Connections for Africa: Constituencies, Movements, Interest Groups, Coalitions, and Conventional Wisdoms

Author:: William Minter
Publication Date:: 03-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:: This paper was prepared by APIC Senior Research Fellow William Minter for the Constituency Builders' Dialogue organized by the Africa Policy Information Center, held at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia, over the weekend of January 10-12, 1997. The Dialogue was designed as an opportunity for a diverse group of activists from different sectors of Africa advocacy work in the United States to step back, reflect and engage in dialogue on the strategic directions for grassroots Africa constituency-building in the current period. The Dialogue was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and by ongoing support from the Ford Foundation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and New York

55757. Future Prospects for the U.S. Defense Budget and Their Implications for Our Asian Alliance Commitments

Author:: Andrew Krepinevich
Publication Date:: 08-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This talk addresses two issues. First, given the level of American defense spending, are there enough resources available to sustain the U.S. presence in East Asia, over the long term, along the lines of the current commitment of approximately 100,000 troops? Second, even if there is adequate funding to maintain forward deployed troops, are these the kinds of investments we ought to be making, given the transformations we are seeing in the geopolitical environment and, I would argue, the military-technical environment? Will these investments, in other words, achieve American security objectives in East Asia over the next ten to twenty years?
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, America, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

55758. Sankin Kotai: Institutionalized Trust as the Foundation for Economic Development in the Tokugawa Era

Author:: Jennifer Amyx
Publication Date:: 06-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This article focuses on the sankin kotai, or alternate attendance, system instituted in Japan during the Tokugawa period. Most traditional accounts of the sankin kotai system–which included an important hostage element–portray it as a product of Tokugawa statecraft devised primarily for the coercion and exploitation of daimyo, or territorial lords, and control over a feudal order. In addition, these accounts tend to take the distinctive stability of this era for granted. Given the chaos and bloodshed of the "warring states" period which preceded it, however, the phenomenon of 267 years of peace deserves a stronger explanation.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Japan, Israel, and East Asia

55759. U.S.-Japan Defense Guidelines: Toward a New Accommodation of Mutual Responsibility

Author:: Paul Giarra
Publication Date:: 06-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War. The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War.
Topic:: Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, America, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union

55760. China's Foreign Economic Relations

Author:: K.C. Fung and Lawrence Lau
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: China's presence in the world economy continues to grow and deepen. The foreign sector of China plays an important and multifaceted role in the country's economic development. At the same time, China's expanded role in the world economy is beneficial to all its trading partners. Regions that trade with China benefit from cheaper and more varied imported consumer goods, raw materials, and intermediate products. China also provides a large and growing export market. While the entry of any major trading nation in the global trading system can create a process of adjustment, the outcome is fundamentally a win-win situation. It is a simple but powerful lesson from economics that freer international trade and investments benefit all parties concerned.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

55761. A Peace or just a Cease-Fire? The Military Equation in Post Dayton Bosnia

Publication Date:: 12-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Achieving the ambitious goals of the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina (DPA) -- forging a unified state out of the shaky Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and resistant and unstable Republika Srpska -- is a complex and difficult undertaking which has not been made easier by the quest for a so-called “exit strategy”. Ultimately, success will be judged by the durability of the peace. But as the pre-announced departure date for the NATO-led Stabilisation Force (SFOR) approaches, it is clear that a self-sustaining peace is not yet in sight.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

55762. Dayton: Two Years On, A Review of Progress in Implementing the Dayton Peace Accords in Bosnia

Publication Date:: 12-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Prospects for lasting peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina have improved in recent months as a result of a clear shift in approach towards implementation of the peace plan on the part of the international community. The new-found resolve has been characterised, in particular, by a snatch operation in Prijedor in July in which one indicted war criminal was captured and another killed, and the seizure by the NATO-led Stabilisation Force (SFOR) of four transmission towers used by Bosnian Serb television's (SRT) Pale studio which had hitherto been used to broadcast ethnic hatred and obstruct implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

55763. Paying for Essentials: Resources for Humanitarian Assistance

Author:: Shepard Forman and Rita Parhad
Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: This paper was prepared as background for the meeting on "Resources for Humanitarian Assistance," which was held on September 11-12, 1997 at the Pocantico Conference Center in New York. It reflects the aggregate set of responses of the primary intergovernmental and non-governmental humanitarian service providers to an inquiry regarding their financial, managerial, and staffing concerns, as well as discussions with them and with other experts in the field. Without denying the importance of longer term development assistance and its interconnectedness with humanitarian relief, this paper's focus has intentionally been limited to humanitarian assistance in complex emergencies, with the recognition that effective emergency aid must be understood within the broader humanitarian framework. The paper briefly analyzes the overall financial situation facing the humanitarian enterprise; examines the ways in which patterns of funding, as well as gross amounts, affect the delivery of assistance; and identifies several options which could strengthen the capacity and performance of the humanitarian system, including investment in preparedness measures and in staff recruitment and training.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: New York

55764. The Cost of International Justice

Author:: Cesare P. R. Romano
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The issue of the financing of international justice has been generally neglected by international research. Legal scholars have rarely ventured beyond generic calls for the widening of the jurisdiction of international courts or for the creation of new courts. The financing of international justice has usually been conceived as an essentially political and technical issue and, therefore, as outside of the scope of legal discourse. Economists, on their side, have never taken a hard look at the way international law works, aside from decisions that effect the functioning of the international economic system per se. It is not surprising, therefore, that there does not exist any serious study on how much international rule of law costs, how and if efficiency could be enhanced, and where and if additional resources could be tapped to enhance the functioning of the courts themselves and allow a greater use of existing means. Hopefully, the data presented in this paper, together with some general observations proposed in the conclusions, will elicit constructive criticism and new thoughts on these much neglected aspects of this particular area of international cooperation.
Topic:: International Law, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance

55765. Building China's Information Technology Industry

Author:: Stephen S. Cohen and Michael Borrus
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: At the October 29, 1997, summit meeting between President Jiang Zemin of the People's Republic of China ("China") and President Bill Clinton of the United States, President Jiang announced his government's commitment to join the Information Technology Agreement ("ITA") and thereby eliminate China's tariffs on semiconductors, computers and other information technology products. President Jiang also agreed that, in the context of the negotiations concerning China's accession to the World Trade Organization ("WTO"), China would make further substantial tariff reductions.
Topic:: Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

55766. Turnkey Production Networks:A New American Model of Industrial Organization?

Author:: Timothy J. Sturgeon
Publication Date:: 08-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: This paper explores the implications of the following hypothesis: that a significant share of American firms are adapting to volatile and intensely competitive market conditions by "outsourcing" manufacturing functions to specialized merchant suppliers. At the same time, "brand-name" firms have reasserted control over product definition, design, and marketing functions, which are largely being kept in-house despite the spate of high-profile "strategic alliances" formed in the 1990s.
Topic:: Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: United States

55767. From Partial to Systemic Globalization

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: Far-reaching changes are currently occurring in the organization and location of the production of industrial goods and services, changes which are bound to have important implications for the welfare, the development potential, and the competitive position of different countries and regions. As competition cuts across national and sectoral boundaries and becomes increasingly global, firms everywhere are forced to shift from exports to international production. Today, dominance in a domestic market—even one as large as the U.S.—is no longer enough. Mutual raiding of established customer and supply bases has become an established business practice, with the result that firms are now forced to compete simultaneously in all major markets, notably in Europe, North America and Asia.
Topic:: Globalization and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and North America

55768. Partners for the China Circle?: The Asian Production Networks of Japanese Electronics Firms

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: The "China fever" that has raged through the Japanese industry over the last few years, has drastically changed the locational patterns of Japanese investment within East Asia. The share of China in the investment of Japanese electronics firms abroad has increased by leaps and bounds: from the measly 0.6% of 1990 ( the year after the Tianmen massacre), it has now reached almost 7%, catching up fast with the 7.7% share of ASEAN.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

55769. Democratisation from the Outside in: NGO and International Efforts to Promote Open Elections

Author:: Vikram K. Chand
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Until recently, the monitoring of elections in a sovereign country by outside actors was extremely rare. The United Nations (UN) had significant experience in conducting plebiscites and elections in dependent territories but did not monitor an election in a formally independent country until 1989, when it reluctantly became involved in the Nicaraguan electoral process. At the regional level, the Organization of American States (OAS) occasionally sent small delegations to witness elections in member states, but these missions were too brief to permit any real observation of the processes, and failed to criticise fraud. Since the 1980s election-monitoring has become increasingly common in transitional elections from authoritarian to democratic rule. Non-governmental organisations (NGOs), domestic and international, were the first to become involved in election-monitoring in the 1980s followed by international and regional organisations like the UN, the OAS, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in the 1990s. Election-monitors played a crucial role in transitional elections held in the Philippines (1986), Chile (1989), Panama (1989), Nicaragua (1990) and Haiti (1990). In addition, elections began to form a crucial element of UN 'peace-building' strategies in countries torn apart by civil strife such as Namibia (1989), Cambodia (1993) and El Salvador (1994). By the middle of the 1990s, international election-monitoring had thus become widely accepted, and fairly universal standards established for defining the term 'free and fair' elections.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, Non-Governmental Organization, Sovereignty, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Europe, Philippines, Cambodia, Nicaragua, Chile, and Namibia

55770. America's New Deal with Europe: NATO Primacy and Double Expansion

Author:: Carl Conetta
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: Including analysis relevant to the 2022 Ukraine crisis, this article addresses NATO expansion, burdensharing, the Balkans crisis, and relations with Russia and Germany. The American debate and public opinion regarding NATO enlargement is reviewed as well.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Balkans, North America, and United States of America

55771. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 02-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

55772. Time to End the Certification Circus

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: More than a decade ago, the U.S. Congress established a procedure whereby each year the president must “certify” that a given country is cooperating with us in the eradication of drug production and trafficking. Governments that lag behind, show little enthusiasm for our crusade, or are found colluding with narco-lords are subject to sanctions. Those “decertified” are denied foreign assistance, as well as U.S. votes for loans at the international financial institutions. Such countries–or, rather, our investors in their countries–also become ineligible for premiums from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Narcotics Trafficking, and Drugs
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

55773. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 05-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America

55774. Arms Sales: An Old Issue Revisited

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 06-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: Is the United States on the verge of pushing the major Latin American countries into a new arms race? Time seems to think so, to judge by a long article in the April 14 issue. Subtitled “the inside story of how the Pentagon and big defense contractors got the President to open the way for weapons sales to Latin America,” Time claims to provide the background to the Clinton administration’s current review of arms transfer policy. In so doing, the article revives an old controversy, namely, what role the United States plays (or should play) in the acquisition (or denial) of expensive military hardware, particularly to countries that lie within its own sphere of influence and, in the opinion of arms control experts, humanitarians, and journalists, “don’t need weapons at all.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:: Latin America

55775. Mexico’s Midterm Elections: A Major Turning Point?

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: On July 6, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a new Chamber of Deputies, renew a quarter of the Senate, and choose governors and legislators in six states. They will also have the opportunity to elect–for the first time–the governor of Mexico City, a position that, until now, has been appointive rather than elected. These races amount to both a midterm referendum on the stewardship of President Ernesto Zedillo and a crucial test of his ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Elections, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

55776. Argentina: Another Round at the Polls

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 10-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: This month President Clinton visits Argentina, a major South American country that in recent years has become one of our most valued and trusted Latin allies. His presence there will underscore the special relationship that President Carlos Sal Menem has forged with the United States, a relationship that is a mirror image of Argentina’s historic antagonism toward Washington and all its works. Clinton’s presence will also highlight Argentina’s significant victories in the economic field–in the war against inflation, in the struggle to reestablish creditworthiness, and, above all, in its efforts to attract significant new foreign investment from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The visit precedes by about ten days an important midterm election, which in all probability will determine the political lineup for that country’s 1999 presidential election. In this regard, the most important development has been the creation of a multiparty coalition, the Alliance, which will be running joint lists against the candidates of Menem’s own Peronist Party. If the Peronists hold their own on October 26, Menem will be tempted to make a bid for an unprecedented third term. If they are soundly defeated, the struggle for succession within Peronism will begin the morning after. But a victory for the Alliance by no means clearly points the way for the opposition, which is beset by profound divisions of its own. This vagueness makes these elections a particularly interesting lens through which to view Argentina’s continuing evolution.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:: Argentina and Latin America

55777. Who’s Afraid of Big Bad Brazil?

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 11-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: On his trip to South America last month, President Clinton made quite a splash in Brazil. After starting off badly–dodging a torrent of manure thrown at his motorcade–he ended the week with the local media singing his praises. The secret of his success? The president (a quick study if there ever was one) immediately grasped that the best way to get along with Brazilians was to repeat back to them–with redoubled enthusiasm–what they told him about themselves. Thus, by the time Clinton had been in the country for thirty-six hours, he was expressing his conviction that Brazil, together with the United States, would lead the hemisphere in the twenty-first century. He also went out of his way to insist on his support for Mercosur, a subregional trade agreement-cum-political alliance of whose existence Clinton was probably only peripherally aware before his trip. In so doing, he seemed to be writing off an entire continent to the Brazilian sphere of influence.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Politics, and Reform
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and United States of America

55778. Party Discipline in the Brazilian Constitutional Congress

Author:: Scott Mainwaring and Aníbal Pérez-Liñán
Publication Date:: 03-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper analyzes party discipline in the Brazilian constitutional congress of 1987-88, focusing on roll call votes in 1988. Because of the large number (1,021) of roll call votes during the constitutional congress and the availability of an excellent data base, the Brazilian constitutional congress offers an opportunity for one of the most detailed studies that has been conducted of party discipline in a Third World legislature. We begin with a discussion of how we have calculated discipline scores, given some distinctive features of the Brazilian party system and the constitutional congress. We show that the biggest Brazilian parties of this period were comparatively undisciplined, and we also show that the leftist parties were a powerful exception to this general tendency. We demonstrate that legislators who switched parties during the constitutional congress were more likely than others to be undisciplined before switching and that their discipline increased markedly after their move to new parties. Finally, we attempt to explain why discipline was low in all but the leftist parties.
Topic:: Democratization, Governance, Democracy, Constitution, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

55779. Is the Third Wave of Democratization Over? An Empirical Assessment

Author:: Larry Diamond
Publication Date:: 03-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Since the Portuguese military overthrew the Salazar/Caetano dictatorship in April of 1974, the number of democracies in the world has multiplied dramatically. Before the start of this global trend toward democracy, there were roughly 40 countries in the world that could be rated as more or less democratic. The number increased moderately through the late 1970s and early 1980s as a number of states experienced transitions from authoritarian (predominantly military) to democratic rule. But then, in the mid-1980s, the pace of global democratic expansion accelerated markedly, to the point where as of 1996 there were somewhere between 76 and 117 democracies, depending on how one counts. How one counts is crucial, however, to the task of this essay: thinking about whether democracy will continue to expand in the world, or even hold steady at its current level. In fact, it raises the most fundamental philosophical and political questions of what we mean by democracy.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, South America, Central America, Caribbean, and Portugal

55780. Is the Third Wave of Democratization Over? The Imperative of Consolidation

Author:: Larry Diamond
Publication Date:: 03-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: In Kellogg Institute Working Paper no. 236 I charted the progress of what Huntington has called the 'third wave' of global democratic expansion, from 1974 to the present, distinguishing among the various types of democracy that have resulted. If I am right in my analysis, democracy, and especially liberal democracy, will not expand in the coming years. It could recede into a reverse wave. It could just keep persisting, becoming less liberal and more artificial in the process. Or it could stabilize and sink firm roots in countries where it is now present-and even liberal-but not secure. If the historical pattern is to be defied and a third reverse wave avoided, the overriding imperative in the coming years is to consolidate those democracies that have come into being during the 'third wave.' In this paper I examine various conceptual approaches to consolidation and identify a number of challenges faced by new and insecure democracies. The paper concludes with a discussion of future prospects for democracy worldwide.
Topic:: Democratization, Globalization, Democracy, and Consolidation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

55781. Indigenous Politics and Democracy: Contesting Citizenship in Latin America

Author:: Deborah J. Yashar
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Ethnic cleavages have rarely given rise to political organizing and sustained political conflict in Latin America. Over the past two decades, however, Latin America has witnessed a wave of rural organizing and movement building that mobilizes Indians as Indians to advance and defend self-proclaimed indigenous rights. This paper addresses why indigenous identity has become a more salient basis of political organizing and source of political claims in Latin America over the past two decades. After analyzing alternative theoretical approaches, the paper proposes a historically grounded comparative analysis that situates indigenous identity and movement formation in relation to the process of state building and the changing terms of citizenship. Drawing on social movement theory, the author suggests the conditions under which identity and organization have merged to generate indigenous movements in the region.
Topic:: Politics, Race, Democracy, Citizenship, Ethnicity, Indigenous, and Identity
Political Geography:: South America, Central America, and Caribbean

55782. Macro Comparisons without the Pitfalls: A Protocol for Comparative Research

Author:: J. Samuel Valenzuela
Publication Date:: 04-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Comparative analysis is, with statistical and case study approaches, one of the three main tools for studying macrophenomena in the social sciences. This paper begins by delimiting its essential characteristics in contrast to the other two approaches, noting that it owes much of its strength to cases studies even though it focuses, like statistical methods, on explaining how phenomena vary, producing both similarities and differences among cases (the complex configurations of variables where the phenomena are studied). The paper then presents a protocol of research steps that must be followed in order to minimize the possibilities of error in using comparative analysis. It is easy to fall prey to such errors, given the many variables that must be examined in a smaller number of cases-the defining feature of this form of analysis. Juan Linz's work is frequently mentioned as among the most insightful in comparative analysis because it has followed, avant la lettre, the protocol presented here.
Topic:: Democratization, Social Movement, and Research
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Asia, and South America

55783. Teenage Childbearing and Personal Responsibility: An Alternative View

Author:: Arline T. Geronimus
Publication Date:: 09-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: ARLINE T. GERONIMUS examines widely-shared assumptions about teen childbearing that informed the welfare reform debate. She argues that the scientific basis for these assumptions is equivocal and questions the belief that teen childbearing always represents irrationality and the abdication of personal responsibility.
Topic:: Reform, Youth, Welfare, Social Responsibility, and Parenthood
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

55784. Turkey-The Return of the Reluctant Generals?

Author:: Ben Lombardi
Publication Date:: 07-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: BEN LOMBARDI reviews developments currently affecting Turkish politics. He compares current trends with events in Turkey that preceded the three military coups in 1960, 1971, and 1980, and suggests that intervention in that country's domestic politics by the armed forces is a distinct possibility.
Topic:: History, Armed Forces, Domestic Politics, and Coup
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

55785. Full Faith and Credit for Same-Sex Marriages?

Author:: Ken I. Kersch
Publication Date:: 03-1997
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: KEN I. KERSCH addresses federalism questions involving the obligations of states to recognize same-sex marriages under the full faith and credit clause. He argues that a consideration of traditional norms of comity among states along with the nation's experience with analogous disputes concerning slavery and antimiscegnation statutes would be useful to policy makers grappling with the issue.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, LGBT+, Federalism, and Marriage
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

55786. Elite Circulation & Consolidation of Democracy in Poland

Author:: Jacek Wasilewski
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: The paper examines two aspects of democratic consolidation-institution building and value consensus through analysis of the old and new elites in Poland. It argues that although Polish democracy is established and working, it has not been fully consolidated. Poland represents the case of a ·shallow consolidation," i.e., all elements constituting a consolidated democratic regime are in place, but relations among them do not form a coherent structure typical of mature democracies.
Topic:: Democratization, Elites, Consolidation, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

55787. Unionists Against Unions: Towards Hierarchical Management in Postcommunist Poland

Author:: David Ost and Marc Weinstein
Publication Date:: 01-1997
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: Contrary to standard assumptions about union opposition to economic reform, our survey of firm-level deci sion makers in ninety-five manufacturing enterprises shows that Polish trade union leaders have strong pro-market leanings, and are profoundly skeptical of the utility of institutionalized employee influence in a market economy. This skepticism towards unions is shared by rank-and-file workers, as reported in other surveys. Industrial relations institutions in Poland are becoming less participatory and increasingly hierar chical according to a number of indicators, and this is due not just to coercion from above but acquies cence from below. At the same time, unionists in practice maintain a strong presence in non-private firms. This lingering employee influence stems, paradoxically, from a belief in property rights: unionists believe that private owners should be able to manage their assets as they choose, for this will allegedly benefit workers; but where private owners are lacking, unionists feel employees must act as temporary watchdogs. Long-term prospects for unions thus appear weak, and the weakness of institutions articulating labor inter ests can lead toward the delegitimation of democratic institutions in general. Finally, rational choice and historical institutionalist approaches are seen as unable to explain our findings. An ideational explanation appears to be the most plausible.
Topic:: Reform, Unions, Hierarchy, and Post-Communism
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

55788. Controversies on the Universality of Human Rights and the Conditionality of Aid

Author:: Franz Nuscheler
Publication Date:: 12-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: What is the reaction of human rights groups and academic scholars from Asia, who cannot be suspected of engaging in Western "cultural imperialism," to the challenge of "Asian values"? This INEF-Report includes the following papers: two papers presented by Sri Lankan scholars to an international conference in Colombo organized by the Goethe-Institute and the Sri Lanka Foundation; a paper by a political scientist from the Philippines read at the University of Druisburg in summer 1997; a paper on the conditionality of foreign aid presented by the editor of this INEF-Report to the above-mentioned international conference in Colombo, which was a fine example of an intercultural dialogue.
Topic:: Human Rights, Foreign Aid, Authoritarianism, Conditionality, and Universality
Political Geography:: South Asia, Philippines, and Sri Lanka

55789. Patent Protection, Biotechnology and Globalisation: The TRIPS Agreement and its Implications for the Developing Countries

Author:: Tanja Brühl and Margareta Kulessa
Publication Date:: 12-1997
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: Globalisation is often seen as one of the dominant trends of our times. Besides technological innovations, one of its driving forcds is the liberalisation of the world economy. The founding of the GATT's successor "World Trade Organisation" (WTO) in 1995 can be viewed as an important step towards worldwide economic integration. The "Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights" (TRIPs) is one of the WTO's components. The TRIPs Agreement aims at harmonising the level of intellectual property protection in all WTO member states at a fairly high level.
Topic:: Globalization, Treaties and Agreements, World Trade Organization, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Patents, and Biotechnology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

55790. Military Doctrine and Political Participation: Toward a Sociology of Strategy

Author:: Yagil Levy
Publication Date:: 01-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Studies of Social Change
Abstract:: Wars produce contrasting effects on the state's status in the domestic arena: they bolster its internal control but, at the same time, create opportunities for collective action of which domestic groups can take advantage and weaken state autonomy. As the case of Israel suggests, within the confines of geo-political constraints, states modify their military doctrine to balance the two contradictory impacts. The main purpose of the paper is to lay the foundation for a Sociology of Strategy by drawing on the case of Israel.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

55791. Participatión Ciudadana y Retos Ambientalistas Frente a los Riesgos de la Globalización y del TLCAN

Author:: Sofía Gallardo C.
Publication Date:: 01-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: With the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement different view regarding the possible environmental risks and the measures that had to be taken in order to be able to manage them were expressed. Some environmental organizations for the first time sought to influence international trading issues in local, national and trinational networks. Current globalization processes have established new challenges to the citizens because they have forced them to focus their political action simultaneously in national, regional and global public scenarios. Therefore, Mexican, Canadian and American citizens have been increasingly involved in their countries' economic integration processes, creating awareness of the possible risks generated by the current globalization patterns and of the ways in which they can be affected. This paper concentrates on the challenges that civic organizations in general, and environmental groups in particular, have had to confront in order to maintain or try to improve their living standards with the implementation of NAFTA and offers some considerations on the successes and failures of civic and environmental actions in the purview of NAFTA.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: America, Canada, North America, and Mexico

55792. Neo-conservatism: Some Theoretical and Terminological Clarifications

Author:: Jesus Velasco
Publication Date:: 01-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: The classification of current political tendencies in the United States is sometimes confusing. Since the beginning of Ronald Reagan's first presidential campaign, American journalists and scholars have used indistinctly terms like right, conservatism, neoconservatism, ultraconservatism, extreme right, New Right, etc., to define the different political forces behind Reagan's ascent to the White House. This confusion is evident in the work of John Judis. He believes that Kevin Phillips (a conservative scholar), Paul Weyrich (a New Right activist), Irving Kristol (a neoconservative leader), and William Buckley (a traditional conservative), could all be embraced within the term "conservative" without considering any differences in their theoretical and political position.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and America

55793. The Democratic Control Of Armed Forces

Author:: Rudolf Joo
Publication Date:: 02-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Political control of armed forces is not a problem that has confronted only liberal democracies of the twentieth century. Even less is it an issue challenging only the democratizing societies of Central and Eastern Europe in the l990s. The crucial dilemma -- that a separate armed body established in order to protect a society might pose a threat to that same society -- goes back to antiquity. The ever-relevant question of who guards the guards was a central issue in Plato's dialogue The Republic, written about 2,500 years ago. Plato, in presenting what he considered to be the right order of society, described the military state as a deviation. Ancient Greece and the Roman Empire were both confronted with the dilemma `sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?' The question has remained the same over the centuries, but as armed forces and society have changed, the nature of the problem has also changed.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Greece

55794. Cutting Losses: Reflections On Appropriate Timing

Author:: Christopher R. Mitchell
Publication Date:: 01-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University
Abstract:: The field of conflict resolution has reached a point in its evolution where hunches and intuitive guesses are being transformed into testable theoretical propositions. Nowhere is this more important than in the debate about when conflicts are “ripe for resolution.”
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies

55795. Palestinian Refugees and the Peace Process

Author:: Elia Zureik
Publication Date:: 05-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:: As a discipline, refugee studies is of a recent vintage and very much influenced by the more established tradition of migration studies. Analysis of (voluntary) migration tends to focus on individuals rather than groups. To the extent that groups are considered, they are treated as aggregates of individuals rather than as cohesive social units in the sociological sense of constituting communities with shared common historical experiences (Shami 1993). In contrast with immigrant status, refugee status is the outcome of involuntary forms of migration, in which displacement is often caused by events beyond the control of refugees, such as internal and external wars, state policies of expulsion and exclusion, development projects, and natural disasters.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Migration, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East

55796. Energy and Security in Northeast Asia

Author:: Michael May, Michael Stankiewicz, Edward Fei, Celeste Johnson, and Tatsujiro Suzuki
Publication Date:: 08-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: Since 1993, the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), a state-wide policy research institute of the University of California, has coordinated a series of high-level, track two consultations among security experts and officials from China, Japan, North and South Korea, Russia, and the United States. Known as the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), this forum has sought to reduce mistrust within the North Pacific region, and to avert conflicts among the major powers in Asia through ongoing, multilateral dialogues about current security issues. The informality of the process allows the participants to air their concerns and brainstorm about new approaches to building cooperation and reducing the risk of conflict in Northeast Asia.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Asia, Korea, and Northeast Asia

55797. Symposium on UN Global Conferences

Author:: Benjamin Rivlin, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, Arthur M. Schlesinger, Mehr Kahn, Jyoti Shankar Singh, Elissavet Stamatopoulou, Nitin Desai, John Mathiason, Waly N-Dow, and Paul M. Kennedy
Publication Date:: 02-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies, City University of New York
Abstract:: When the record of the United Nations during its first half-century of existence is remembered in history, the continuum of UN-sponsored global conferences from the "Children's Summit in 1990 to the City Summit in 1996" will emerge as perhaps the most important contribution of the organized world community to the furtherance of human well-being. Neither mentioned nor foreseen in the Charter of the United Nations, these global conferences represent a notable example of innovation that is possible within the framework of the Charter to meet the challenges posed by changing conditions and circumstances in the world.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and United Nations

55798. Theoretical Confidence Level Problems with Confidence Intervals for the Spectrum of a Time Series

Author:: Jon Faust
Publication Date:: 12-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Textbook approaches to forming asymptotically justified confidence intervals for the spectrum under very general assumptions were developed by the mid-1970s. This paper shows that under the textbook assumptions, the true confidence level for these intervals does not converge to the asymptotic level, and instead is fixed at zero in all sample sizes. The paper explores necessary conditions for solving this problem, most notably showing that under weak conditions, forming valid confidence intervals requires that one limit consideration to a finite-dimensional time series model.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Education

55799. Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle

Author:: Jon Faust and John S. Irons
Publication Date:: 11-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics

55800. The Accumulation of Human Capital: Alternative Methods and Why They Matter

Author:: Ann L. Owen and Murat F. Iyigun
Publication Date:: 05-1996
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: We show how the ability o accumulate human capital through formal education and through a learning-by-doing process that occurs on the job affects the dynamic behavior of the human capital stock under a liquidity constrained and a non-constrained case. When there are alternatives to formal schooling in the accumulation of human capital, investing resources in increasing school enrollment rates in low-income countries may not be the most efficient means of increasing the human capital stock. In addition, removal of the liquidity constraints may not be sufficient to escape a development trap.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Education, and International Trade and Finance

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