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55602. Turkey: Thwarted Ambition
- Author:
- Simon V. Mayall
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- At the end of the Cold War every country was forced to reexamine the fundamental assumptions that had formed their security policies for the last 45 years. Among the "victors" of the Cold War, few countries were faced with a more disparate set of new circumstances than Turkey. Unlike the United States and Western Europe, "victory" for Turkey had a very ambivalent quality. Almost overnight Turkey moved from being the buttressing flank of one strategic region, to the epicenter of a new one.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States and Turkey
55603. NATO and Humanitarian Action in the Kosovo Crisis
- Author:
- Marc Sommers, Larry Minear, and Ted van Baarda
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- The world's response to the Kosovo crisis dramatizes the increased role of international military forces in humanitarian action. Some people view this development positively as the harnessing of the military for humanitarian tasks; others are alarmed at the perceived militarization of humanitarian action. A workshop convened by the Netherlands Foreign Ministry in The Hague on November 15-16, 1999, assessed these different perspectives on the Kosovo experience in the light of research it had commissioned.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo and Netherlands
55604. Human Development: The World After Copehagen
- Author:
- Richard Jolly
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- John W. Holmes' talk for the first annual meeting of the Academic Council on the United Nations System ( ACUNS ) in 1988 was titled Looking Backwards and Forwards. I would like to put the emphasis in this article on looking forwards—from Copenhagen plus one to the year 2000, 2015, or even 2030. In short, I would like to direct attention to the world that the United Nations will need to face in the years ahead, and explore how human advance can be carried forward over that period, rather than dwell on the predicaments in which the world is at present caught up or through which the UN has struggled over the fifty years of its existence.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
55605. Humanitarian Action and Politics: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh
- Author:
- S. Neil MacFarlane and Larry Minear
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- This study reviews the intersection between politics and humanitarian action in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Approaching humanitarian action as including both assistance and protection, as well as emergency aid and reconstruction inputs, the study analyzes the intrusion of political agendas into humanitarian responses to the conflict and assesses the damages of the resulting politicization of activities.
55606. More Teaching About International Organization: Selected Syllabi
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
55607. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process
- Author:
- Greg Gause
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Steve: My impression is that your group has identified the variables that might affect the way the peace process goes. In fact, you probably have too many to factor into any one scenario. One way to proceed might be to divide the variables into First Order and Second Order variables: First Order variables would be those in which a change would have direct and immediate consequences on the peace process; Second Order would be those in which change would have an indirect and/or longer-term effect. You rightly have problematized the question of just what direction your vectors might take. This distinction would add intensity as a second element of the vector.
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
55608. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process
- Author:
- Rick Hermann
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- My first cut at the hierarchy of driving forces ranks Israeli-Palestinian bilateral factors as the most important and regional and global factors as secondary. Competition between global powers (USA, Russia, China) is currently not intense. None of them see the bilateral Israeli-Palestinian conflict as instrumentally critical to their broader strategic competition with each other. None see their security as centrally tied to this conflict, and, consequently, while interested not even the United States will commit enough resources at this point to overturn the forces driving the bilateral bargain. Competition among regional states is substantial, but the conflicts that do not involve Israel do not involve states powerful enough to project their competition into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For example, Iranian v. Turkish, or Iranian v. Saudi Arabian, or Syrian v. Iraq, or India v. Pakistan might tangentially connect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, mostly in the realm of rhetoric and symbol manipulation. None of these states, however, are strong enough to see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an instrumental regional manifestation of their broader strategic conflict. The primary determinants of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation process in the short-term are the conflicting ambitions and calculations made by Israelis and Palestinians. Forces at the global and regional level will affect these bargaining calculations, (affecting both relative coercive leverage and positive reassurance) but they will not impose additional sources of conflict. My examination of global and regional forces, will follow my construction of the primary bilateral dynamic. I do not think global and regional factors will upset the short-term prediction I will make for the bilateral Palestinian-Israeli relationship. They may play a big role in shaping longer-term predictions.
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
55609. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process
- Author:
- Bruce Jentleson
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- There are two issues I want to raise regarding our basic approach of focusing on driving forces to trace scenarios and predict outcomes. First is the question of the time frame of the outcomes to which we are driving. I ask this with particular reference to the "violent collapse" outcome. There are numerous permutations here that we need to differentiate. I'm not adept enough to graph it on the computer, but here are the permutations: Two versions of violent collapse: violent collapse as some sort of end state for whatever our timeframe is, or violent collapse as an intermediate outcome which then comes back together and leads to "two state" or "autonomy"; If violent collapse as an intermediate stage, then what conditions make an ensuing path to Palestinian state more likely, and what conditions for autonomy? Or what 's the story line for getting to either of these without going through violent collapse? And what are the parameters and criteria for what we mean by "violent" (Singer and Small had their figures for how many deaths equal a war; how many equal "violent") and by "collapse", as distinct from pause or suspension of talks?
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
55610. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process
- Author:
- David E. Spiro
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Several interesting observations came out of our first conference. We realized that the mainstream academic view on the Middle East peace process has changed dramatically—from a belief that there would never be a peace to confidence that the peace process would not be derailed. In trying to make predictions that are not driven by newspaper headlines, we used a fairly uncontroversial laundry list of systemic variables, but we could not agree on which way they would effect the outcome. My aim in this memorandum is to review my past views on the Middle East peace process as an exercise in exploring what changed—both in the Middle East, and in my own implicit assumptions. I will amend my conclusions about the past by examining what has happened since the Oslo Accords. Finally, I will suggest, by way of conclusion, what driving forces will affect the future.
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
55611. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process
- Author:
- Janice Stein
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The two-state solution includes continuing but declining violence over time against Israeli and Palestinian civilians as the Palestinian state becomes entrenched and its legitimacy and authority grows, Palestinian leaders develop a commitment to the status quo, and the opposition in Israel reluctantly accepts the permanence of a Palestinian state. If the Palestinian state is poorly institutionalized, violence against Palestinian and Israeli citizens may well increase over time.
- Topic:
- Development and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
55612. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process
- Author:
- Don Sylvan
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Steve asked each of us to do the following: "Each participant will return to the next meeting with arguments on these seven driving forces. These arguments will include: Logic: what is the causal logic by which the driving force impacts on the intervening and dependent variables. Probability: what is the probability estimate of the effect. Hierarchy: is there an identifiable hierarchy among these driving forces.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
55613. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process
- Author:
- Steven Weber
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The election of Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel threw into flux the Middle East peace process. What in early 1996 seemed to many observers the almost inevitable "working out" of a decades-long conflict that had gradually become unsustainable on all sides, was by late 1996 seen more clearly as part of a contingent unfolding set of events which could drive the region in more than one direction, including backwards toward explicit conflict and even war. This presents unique theoretical, analytic, and policy opportunities.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
55614. After Hebron: Prospects for the Peace Process
- Author:
- Zalman Shoval
- Publication Date:
- 03-1997
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Hebron agreement is now finally in place. During the months that it took to reach that point, some must have been reminded of what the nineteenth century British Prime Minister Lord Palmerstone once said about the Schleswig-Holstein question: there were only three people who understood it - one of whom was dead, one was in an asylum, and he himself had forgotten it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
55615. Saudi Arabia in the 1990s: Stability and Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Mordechai Abir
- Publication Date:
- 09-1997
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- The stability of Saudi Arabia (and the Persian Gulf as a whole) is crucially important to the world's industrial countries. According to the Gulf Center of Strategic Studies, "oil is expected to account for 38 percent of all the world consumption of energy until 2015, compared to 39 percent in 1993. Increasing world-wide demand for oil, now about 74 million barrels per day, is projected to rise by 2015 to about 110 million" (Gulf Report, London, July 1997). Over 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia alone controls 25 percent of the total.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Saudi Arabia
55616. Demarcating an Israeli-Palestinian Border: Geographic Considerations
- Author:
- David Newman
- Publication Date:
- 07-1997
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Maps are a very important part of the political process of conflict resolution known as the peace process. Maps are important parts of all territorial conflicts. We often walk around with the idea of a map in our head and think we know what we are talking about, but often we do not.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Peace Studies, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
55617. Turkey Between Secularism and Islamism
- Author:
- Jacob M. Landau
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- When Mustafa Kamal (Ataturk) founded the Republic of Turkey in 1923 (he was its president until his death fifteen years later), he set as his main objective the modernization of the new republic. His preferred means was speedy, intensive secularization and, indeed, every one of his reforms was tied up with disestablishing other Islamic institutions from their hold on Turkey's politics, economics, society, and cultural life.
- Topic:
- Government, Islam, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
55618. The Northeast Asian Security Setting
- Author:
- Sheldon W. Simon
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- We may now be experiencing one of those relatively rare periods in world affairs when the structure of the international system does not dominate foreign policies. While the old cold war alliances have not completely disappeared from U.S. security policy, their ability to determine reflexively America's foreign relations on issues from Bosnia in Europe to the Spratly islands in the Pacific has greatly atrophied. For other states, too, domestic considerations and nearby regional concerns take precedence over alliances with remote great powers whose reliability is problematic in this new era. To better understand this unfamiliar international security environment, analysts should concentrate on internally generated alternative national visions of security which, in the aggregate, are creating a new, innovative structure of international politics.
- Political Geography:
- America, Europe, and Northeast Asia
55619. Changing U.S.-Korean Security Relations
- Author:
- Edward A. Olsen
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- United States-Korea security relations are experiencing a period of dynamic change that raises serious questions about the way that the relationship will evolve during the 21st Century. A number of well-known factors have provoked this phase. The end of the U.S.-Soviet cold war, North Korea's use of its nuclear card to engage the United States in a broader dialogue, South Korea's pursuit of diverse multilateral approaches to its security to shore up the U.S.-ROK alliance, and the emergence of Chinese and Japanese assertiveness in the regional balance of power, cumulatively have altered the context in which Washington and Seoul conduct their bilateral security relations. Both allies are struggling to come to grips with these new—and sometimes troubling—circumstances.
- Political Geography:
- United States, South Korea, and Korea
55620. The Viability of U.S. Security Strategy Toward the Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- William J. Taylor, Jr. and Abraham Kim
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- The end of the cold war resulted in a mixed bag of challenges in the Northeast Asia region. The Soviet threat is gone, but the danger of regional instability is not. Lingering conflicts, old rivalries, and security challenges pose an uncertain future for the Asia-Pacific. The U.S. military presence still remains an important stabilizer in the region. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense, William Perry stated: "It is [the U.S. military] presence that the countries of the [Asia-Pacific] region consider a critical variable in the East Asia security equation.... [and] the most important factor in guaranteeing stability and peace."
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, South Korea, and North Korea
55621. North Korea and the United Nations
- Author:
- Samuel S. Kim
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- On 17 September 1991, the first day of its (46th) annual session, the United Nations General Assembly admitted the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) as the 160th and 161st member states. This historical turnabout was made possible by what had already happened in the Security Council five weeks earlier. Indeed, the 3001st meeting of the Security Council on 8 August 1991 may well be remembered as one of the remarkable events or nonevents in the annals of global high politics in the world organization. Since 1947 the Korean question, in a great variety of contentious manifestations, has proved to be one of the most intractable problems constandy intruding upon wider East-West geopolitical and ideological rivalries in and out of the world organization. Yet, on this day the Security Council devoted only five minutes—between 11:30am and 11:35am EST to be exact—to finally crossing the Rubicon on divided Korea. Without any debate, the Council unanimously adopted the report of the Committee on the Admission of New Members concerning the applications of the two Koreas for admission to membership in the United Nations.
- Topic:
- United Nations
- Political Geography:
- North Korea
55622. North Korea's Approaches to the United States and Japan
- Author:
- B.C. Koh
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- North Korea's approach to the United States is arguably one of the few success stories emanating from Pyongyang. While the story is still unfolding, what has transpired thus far has clearly benefited North Korea in both tangible and intangible ways. By contrast, North Korea's approach to Japan has produced but meager results thus far. Potentially, however, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) stands to profit immensely should its quest for diplomatic normalization with Japan bear fruit.
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and North Korea
55623. Japan's Policy Toward the Two Koreas in the Post-Cold War Era
- Author:
- Hong Nack Kim
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- During the cold war era, Japan's Korea policy was geared to the preservation of the status quo on the Korean peninsula by way of supporting the Republic of Korea (ROK) both politically and economically, while refusing to recognize the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). However, Japan's foreign policy in general and its Korea policy in particular had to make some significant adjustments in the aftermath of the collapse of the Communist regimes in the Soviet Union and Eastern European nations, which ended the cold war in Europe, and a train of rapid developments on and around the Korean peninsula in the post-cold war era.
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Europe, and Korea
55624. U.S. Policies Toward the Two Koreas
- Author:
- Larry Niksch
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- The South Korean government has announced that it would affect a delay in the inauguration of construction of light-water reactors in North Korea (DPRK). Seoul acted in response to North Korea's submarine-borne infiltration of military personnel into South Korea (ROK) and what appears to be North Korea's complicity in the assassination of an ROK diplomat in Vladivostok, Russia. The delay probably will be temporary. By the spring of 1997, a formula likely will be found that will allow construction to begin; and implementation of this important part of the October 1994 U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework will proceed.
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and North Korea
55625. Chinese and U.S. Relations with South Korea: Compatibilities and Conflicts
- Author:
- Robert Sutter
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- Chinese-American Rivalry in Korea—A New "Great Game"?There has been considerable discussion in Washington, Beijing and Seoul in recent years about an emerging competition between the United States and China for influence in the Korean peninsula in general and in South Korea in particular. Some in China have voiced concern over alleged U.S. efforts to hold back and "contain" China's rising power and influence in East Asia. They have been impressed by the recent "gains" in U.S. influence with North Korea. Indeed, from their perspectives, the North Koreans have moved away from their traditionally antagonistic stance toward the United States to a foreign policy approach that appears to give top priority to reaching an arrangement with Washington that would allow for the continued survival of the North Korean regime, or at least a so-called "soft landing" for the increasingly troubled government. A possible scenario contrary to these Chinese analysts interests would see the end of the North Korean regime and the reunification of the peninsula by South Korea under arrangements carried out under the guidance and overall influence of the United States, with the support of Japan. In the view of such Chinese officials, such an arrangement would confront China with a major security problem in a crucial area of Chinese concern for the foreseeable future, gready weakening China's ability to exert power and influence in Asian and world affairs. It would give Americans interested in "containing" China a much more advantageous strategic position in East Asia than they now possess.
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, America, East Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
55626. China's Post-Cold War Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- Thomas W. Robinson
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- Domestic and International Determinants of Chinese Foreign Policy The period beginning with the Tiananmen Incident of June 1989 initiated the third period of Chinese foreign policy. The first coincided with the rule of Mao Zedong, 1949-1976, and the second extended, after a brief interregnum, from Deng Xiaoping's return to power in 1978 to the Beijing disturbances on 1989. While each period naturally exhibited its own special characteristics, all shared a set of three domestic and three international categories of determinants. To understand those of the post-Tiananmen period, one must inspect, for comparative purposes, those of the first two eras as well. In each era, it is clear that domestic determinants predominated, configuring not only the general direction of foreign policy but much of the specific content. The six determinants influenced Chinese policy toward the Korean peninsula as well, and it is therefore useful to provide a brief sketch in each instance.
- Political Geography:
- Korea
55627. Soviet and Russian Relations with the Two Koreas
- Author:
- Jane Shapiro Zacek
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- This essay considers Soviet and then Russian relations with North and South Korea since 1988, which was a watershed year for Soviet policy toward northeast Asia. By that time, the Soviet leadership had reassessed basic ideological and security interests as well as the country's growing domestic economic needs. While the Communist Party was still in power and Mikhail Gorbachev was still General Secretary of the Central Committee (a position he had assumed upon the death of Konstantin Chernenko in March 1985), Marxist-Leninist ideology was playing an everdecreasing role in Party politics and policymaking. By 1987, Gorbachev began to stress the critical need to shift primary political power and the policymaking process from the Party to state institutions. He also emphasized the necessity of revamping the Soviet economy, which would be costly and would need foreign assistance. By 1988, the international communist movement, with the Soviet Union at its head, no longer was of interest to the Soviet leader. Rather, he was looking to reconfirm his country's role as a great power in the international arena, a power that could not be ignored in any regional political turmoil and subsequent settlement, whether in Africa, the Middle East, or Northeast Asia.
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, South Korea, Korea, and Northeast Asia
55628. Unification Policies and Strategies of North and South Korea
- Author:
- Young Whan Kihl
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- The unification policies of North and South Korea have changed little from the days of the cold war era in both official lines and basic premise. The "new detente" between the two Koreas, which was to follow from the planned summitry between South Korean President Kim Young Sam and North Korean President Kim II Sung, was the casualty of the latter's sudden death in July 1994. Since then, instead of working toward peace, the frigid cold war atmosphere has returned to the Korean peninsula. Implementation of the historic Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation between the South and the North, signed 13 December 1991 and promulgated on 19 February 1992, has also proven to be more difficult than anticipated. Not surprisingly, the strategic goals of Seoul and Pyongyang remain far apart and irreconcilable despite official posturing and rhetoric.
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and North Korea
55629. The Dark Side of Social Capital
- Author:
- Martin Gargiulo and Mario Benassi
- Publication Date:
- 09-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Research on social capital has stressed the advantages that networks can bring to managers and other economic actors. The enthusiasm with this "bright side" of social capital, however, neglects the fact that social bonds may at times have detrimental effects for a manager. This paper tries to correct the optimistic bias by looking at the "dark side" of social capital. Continuing benefits from social capital require that managers can adapt the composition of this social capital to the shifting demands of their task environment. This often implies the ability to create new ties while lessening the salience of some of the old bonds--if not severing them altogether. Available evidence, however, suggests that this ability may be encumbered by the same relationships purportedly responsible for the prior success of the manager. When and how this may happen is the central question we address in this paper. We argue that strong ties to cohesive contacts limit the manager's ability keep control on the composition of his network and jeopardize his adaptability to changing task environments. We test our ideas with data on managers operating in a special unit of a European high-technology firm.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
55630. Health Challenges for the 21st Century
- Author:
- Joshua Lederberg, Margaret Hamburg, Stephen Morse, Philip R. Reilly, and Timothy Wirth
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- New York Academy of Sciences
- Abstract:
- A crisis usually eliminates the time required to focus on the long-term: The urgent tends to drive out the important. Over the past several years, public policy perspectives on health care have often suffered from such myopia. In the United States, and in many other countries around the world, spiraling costs and shrinking budgets have focused health policy attention on perceived near-term crises over the allocation of (often public) resources. Because public resource allocation involves tax dollars, and because voters feel personally affected by changes in health services, the controversy enters the political arena. Moreover, politics itself is a very near-term business, with the ballot box and polling data providing its primary compass. In turn, this has added to the tendency to think of health care challenges in terms of immediate needs and to focus on the moment rather than on the consequences of today's changes in tomorrow's complex patterns.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
55631. As Mexico Imploded: Action and Inaction in the United States
- Author:
- Sidney Weintraub
- Publication Date:
- 07-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- On December 20, 1994, Mexican financial and monetary authorities raised the band within which the peso was permitted to fluctuate by 15 percent. They expected a short-lived shock, some economic adjustment, and then back to business as usual with a modestly devalued peso. Mexico, after all, had a history of currency devaluations, particularly during the transitions from one administration to another. Beyond that, Mexico was not a world monetary powerhouse and what it did would not normally attract great or sustained international attention.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, and Mexico
55632. Trading Places: The Caribbean Faces Europe and the Americas in the Twenty-first Century
- Author:
- Anthony T. Bryan
- Publication Date:
- 06-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- The challenges confronting the Caribbean with respect to trade with Europe and the Americas are essentially similar: the future of existing regimes of significant preferences, the need to plan for the long term without such preferences, and the development of a strategy to meet the transition. Unfortunately, the dialogue on these matters often has been characterized as a protocol for the Caribbean to “choose between friends.” Growth in the economies of the Caribbean will depend to a large extent on participation in or access to global trade arrangements. Ideally, a Caribbean strategy for participation should involve simultaneous access to as many pacts as possible. This paper is an overview of the legacy and the future of trade relations between the Caribbean and Europe, and between the Caribbean and the Americas, as these relationships constitute the Caribbean's most urgent global agenda.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Europe, and Caribbean
55633. Possibilities and Realities of Cuba's Integration into the Caribbean: Perceptions of Cuban Entrepreneurs
- Author:
- Gerardo Gonzalez
- Publication Date:
- 05-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes how Cuban entrepreneurs perceive the importance of their role in Cuba's reintegration into the Caribbean. In the context of recent Cuban-Caribbean economic relations, Caribbean entrepreneurs have taken the lead, and Cuban entrepreneurs are trying to conduct business under changing and challenging conditions. As the Cuban economy gradually adapts to new national and international realities, an increasing number of Cuban firms are beginning to participate directly and actively in Cuba's external economic relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Cuba and Caribbean
55634. Trade Policy Options for Chile: A Quantitative Evaluation
- Author:
- Glenn W. Harrison and Thomas F. Rutherfod
- Publication Date:
- 05-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the net economic benefits and government revenue implications for Chile of forming a free trade area with MERCOSUR as an associate member, forming a free trade area with NAFTA, and reducing its external tariff multilaterally and unilaterally. The research shows that NAFTA would benefit Chile, but Chile must obtain improved access in non-grain crops, one of its key export sectors, or NAFTA will result in losses for Chile. Chile will lose from the MERCOSUR agreement as presently constituted but can gain from participation in MERCOSUR by reducing its external tariff to between 6 percent and 8 percent. Such a lowering of the external tariff would lead to a reduction of costly, trade-diverting imports (on which Chile does not collect tariffs) from high-priced partner country suppliers. The paper indicates that Chile should continue to push for NAFTA membership, while moving toward broader multilateral trade liberalization. Additionally, collecting the value added tax at more uniform rates in Chile would reduce domestic distortions and enhance the effectiveness of trade policy reforms.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
55635. Privatization and Regulation: Lessons from Argentina and Chile
- Author:
- Luigi Manzetti
- Publication Date:
- 04-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Some economists have argued that before governments privatize state-owned monopolies in public utilities, they should first try to promote competition. If this is not done, privatization does not produce gains in economic efficiency; instead, it fosters rent-seeking behavior by the new private ownership. Few empirical analyses of rent-seeking behavior for Latin America in post-privatization environments have been done — those that exist concentrate on economic issues and neglect important political motivations. The purpose of this paper is to fill that gap and address key issues of public policy by examining the cases of Chile and Argentina and providing a political explanation for why the Chilean and Argentine governments allowed rent-seeking behavior in important public utility markets. Based upon an analysis of these experiences, the paper then discusses the types of institutions most likely to avoid such negative consequences.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Political Economy
55636. Private Investment as a Financing Source for Microcredit
- Author:
- Carter Garber
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- In this paper, economist and development finance consultant Carter Garber examines the process of complementing donations and commercial bank credit with private investments as a source of capital for international microenterprise finance. First, he describes the large expectations for private capital in the rapid growth of microenterprise finance. Second, Garber discusses the varied sources of private capital, especially those involving socially responsible investment. The third and central section is an examination of eight “socially responsible investment” mechanisms that currently channel $27 million of U.S. private credit to microfinance lending institutions. Garber demonstrates the variety of available mechanisms and examines their track record to date. The final section identifies policy changes that will be necessary for these types of private investment in microenterprise to grow fast enough to meet the expected demand during the coming decade.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
55637. Time to Reinvent APEC
- Author:
- Edward Lincoln and Kenneth Flamm
- Publication Date:
- 11-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, provides an opportunity for 18 countries with strong trade and investment ties to discuss a wide range of economic issues. APEC has scored two tangible achievements to date: a sweeping but vaguely worded 1994 pledge by its member states to open up to free trade and investment by 2010 and 2020, and a central role in the negotiation of the 1996 Information Technology Agreement (ITA). However, APEC is in danger of fading. When this year's summit begins on November 19, the United States must push for major reform of the APEC bargaining process if the organization is to have any chance of realizing its ambitious trade reform targets.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
55638. Globaphobia: The Wrong Debate Over Trade Policy
- Author:
- Robert Z. Lawrence and Robert E. Litan
- Publication Date:
- 10-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The outcome of the fast-track debate that opened this month will determine whether the United States continues to lead the world toward a more open global economy or whether, for the first time since the end of World War II, it sends the opposite message.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
55639. Cato Institute's 15th Annual Monetary Conference
- Author:
- Anna J. Schwartz, Stanley Fischer, Jerry L. Jordan, Leland B. Yeager, Francisco Gil-Diaz, Roberto Salinas-Leon, A. James Meigs, Lawrence Kudlow, William A. Niskanen, Michael Prowse, and Bert Ely
- Publication Date:
- 10-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- On Tuesday, October 15, 1997 the Cato Institute continued its 15 year tradition of exploring pressing and timely issues in international fiscal policy with its meeting Money and Capital Flows in a Global Economy. Speakers including Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan; First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Stanley Fisher; and the Bank of Mexico's Vice Governor, Francisco Gil-Díaz, convened to sort through the pressing issues relevant to global capital flows that face the world economy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Nagasaki
55640. Mixed Signals
- Author:
- Peter A. Hall and Robert J. Franzese Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 09-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Plans for European Monetary Union are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the independence of the central bank can reduce inflation without any real economic effects. However, the theoretical and empirical bases for this claim rest on models of the economy that make unrealistic information assumptions and omit institutional variables other than the central bank. When the signaling problems between the central bank or other actors in the political economy are considered, we find that the character of wage bargaining conditions the impact of central bank independence by rendering the signals between the bank and the bargainers more or less effective. Greater independence can reduce inflation without major employment effects where bargaining is coordinated, but it brings higher levels of unemployment where bargaining is uncoordinated. Thus, currency unions like the EMU may require higher levels of unemployment to control inflation than their proponents envisage; they will have costs as well as benefits, costs which will be distributed unevenly among and within the member nations based on the changes induced in the status of the bank and of wage coordination.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
55641. The Academic-Industrial Symbiosis in German Chemical Research, 1905-1939
- Author:
- Jeffrey Johnson
- Publication Date:
- 05-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses academic-industrial relations in German chemical research from 1905 to the eve of World War II, considering four periods: the decade before World War I, the years of total war and postwar crisis (1916-1923), the renewed crisis (1929-1933), and finally the Nazi years. These periods saw, respectively, the creation of academic-style research laboratories with substantial industrial support; the emergence of industrially-funded organizations to subsidize chemical literature and educational institutions (as well as research); reductions in support for these organizations and in subsidies for contracted academic collaborators, but the expansion of postdoctoral fellowships funded by I.G. Farben; and finally the politicization and militarization of the academic-industrial symbiosis under National Socialism.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, International Political Economy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
55642. Capacity Losses, Reconstruction and Unfinished Modernization: The Chemical Industry in the Soviet Zone of Occupation (SBZ)/GDR 1945-1965
- Author:
- Rainer Karlsch
- Publication Date:
- 03-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Between the two World Wars, central Germany (the later GDR) was a preferred region for the foundation of new chemical plants. But after World War II, Soviet occupying troops dismantled 116 chemical plants in the Soviet Zone of Occupation. After the division of Germany became apparent, the Soviet Zone began a policy of self-sufficiency, but the chemical industry of the GDR dropped behind the West German chemical industry in the first postwar decade. After the "Sputnik shock" in 1957 and Khruschev's proclamation of an "economic race," the chemical industry in the Eastern Bloc moved into the center of the economic policy. In November 1958, the GDR enacted, as did the Soviet Union, a special chemical program. The main points of the program were the doubling of the chemical production within seven years, and an even greater increase in production of synthetic fibers and plastic. But the program failed. Decisive for the backsliding of the GDR's chemical industry was the uncoupling from the international division of labor and the integration into the East European economic zone. The GDR's Chemical Industry could find no real equivalent partner in Eastern Europe, and cooperation with the West was restricted for political reasons. The "opting for oil" of the Ulbricht-era became in the Honecker-era a policy of moving "back to coal." The maintaining of carbide chemistry finally ended in an energy crisis and an ecological fiasco.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Industrial Policy, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
55643. Dominance through Cooperation - The Japan Strategy of I.G. Farben
- Author:
- Akira Kudo
- Publication Date:
- 03-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the Japan strategy of I.G. Farben in the inter-war period. It deals with export strategy as well as the licensing of technologies. It concludes that I.G. Farben suffered from a variety of difficulties in its Japan business, especially in the area of direct investment, and that, in spite of this, it succeeded in developing active business operations in Japan, especially in its exports of dyestuffs and nitrogenous fertilizer and in its licensing of the Haber-Bosch process for synthetic ammonia.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Europe, Israel, and East Asia
55644. The Dynamics of Industry Structure: The Chemical Industry in the US, Western Europe, and Japan in the 1980s
- Author:
- Ashish Arora and Alfonso Gambardella
- Publication Date:
- 03-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the evolution of the structure of the chemical industry in the US, Europe, and Japan. Differences in institutions, historical conditions, and resource endowments across the three regions reinforce differences in initial conditions. However, technological innovation, the internationalization of the industry, and the development and operation of markets, especially markets for technology, capital, raw materials, and corporate control, are powerful forces encouraging convergence. Convergence is less marked at the level of the firm than at the level of the industry, and is more marked between the industries of Western Europe and the United States.
- Topic:
- Globalization and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Europe
55645. Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits within the European Union
- Author:
- Mark Hallenberg and Jürgen. von Hagen
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Large government budget deficits are a concern in most industrialized countries. Two literatures in political economy argue that differences in political institutions explain much of the variation in the success of counties in their efforts to run small deficits. One group of authors considers how differences among electoral systems affect the size of budget deficits, while the second group concentrates on the governmental institutions which structure the formation of the yearly budget. Among the "electoral institutionalists", a consensus is beginning to emerge which treats proportional representation systems as a cause of high levels of public debt. In contrast, "fiscal institutionalists" argue that the presence of certain institutions in the decision-making process at the cabinet level, such as a strong finance minister or negotiated spending targets, lead to smaller deficits than in cases where such institutions are missing. We indicate that these two literatures complement one another. Electoral institutions matter because they restrict the type of budgetary institution at the governmental phase which a state has at its disposal. A strong finance minister is feasible in states where one-party governments are the norm, and such states usually have plurality electoral systems, while negotiated targets provide an alternative in multi-party governments. In multi-party governments, which are common in states with proportional representation, the coalition members are not willing to delegate to one actor the ability to monitor and punish the others for "defections" on the budget. The empirical section of the paper indicates a strong relationship between one-party governments and strong finance minister solutions within the European Union states on the one hand and multi-party or minority governments and targets on the other. Pooled time series regression results also support our contention that it is the presence or absence of one of these budgetary institutions, rather than the plurality/proportional representation dishotomy, which has the greatest impact on debt levels.
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
55646. A Strategy for Launching the Euro
- Author:
- Maurice Obstfeld
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- This paper studies the constraints placed by the Maastricht Treaty on the rates at which member currencies will exchange against the Euro at the start of stage 3 of economic and monetary union (EMU). The paper shows that the stage 3 bilateral conversion factors for EMU member currencies must correspond to closing market exchange rates as of December 31, 1998; furthermore, currency conversion rates into the Euro cannot be determined until that date. Moreover, official announcements about intended conversion factors will carry no credibility with markets, as market rates must be chosen over any prennounced rates according to the Treaty. Unless there is heavy official intervention in the runup to stage 3, EMU members' bilateral market rates will exhibit excessive volatility and may induce beggar-thy-neighbor policy behavior. On the other, hand, exchange-rate targeting may open the door to speculative currency crises. The only feasible solution appears a widely-publicized institutional reform to subjugate national central banks' policies entirely to the goal of intra-EMU exchange stability in the final months of stage 2.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
55647. European Integration and the Question of National Sovereignty
- Author:
- Lars Tragardh
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- According to Ole Wæver, a leading student of the travails of the "New Europe," Western Europe is probably the part of the world that currently exhibits "the most advanced case of border fluidity and transgression of sovereignty." So dramatic are the processes underway that they have led otherwise prudent political scientists to turn to the trendy idiom of "postmodernity," meaning in the context of IR theory first and foremost "post-sovereignty." Thus John Ruggie has argued that what he sees as "the unbundling of territoriality" - i.e. the incipient decoupling of sovereignty and (nation)state - constitutes "nothing less than the emergence of the first truly postmodern international form." Similarly, Saskia Sassen notes that in the process of globalization the notion of a "national economy" has come to be replaced with that of a "global economy." As a consequence, she argues that while sovereignty and territory very much "remain key features of the international system," they have been "reconstituted and partly displaced onto other institutional areas outside the state." Thus, she concludes, "sovereignty has been decentered and territory partly de-nationalized."
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Europe
55648. Balancing Positive and Negative Integration: The Regulatory Options for Europe
- Author:
- Fritz W. Scharpf
- Publication Date:
- 11-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- During the golden years from the 1950s to the mid-1970s, the industrial nations of Western Europe had the chance to develop specifically national versions of the capitalist welfare state - and their choices were in fact remarkably different (Esping-Andersen 1990). In spite of the considerable differences between the "Social-Democratic", "Corporatist" or "Liberal" versions, however, all were remarkably successful in maintaining full employment and promoting economic growth, while also controlling, in different ways and to different degrees, the destructive tendencies of unfettered capitalism in the interest of specific social, cultural, and/or ecological values (Scharpf 1991a; Merkel 1993). It was not fully realized at the time, however, how much the success of market-correcting policies did in fact depend on the capacity of the territorial state to control its economic boundaries. Once this capacity is lost, countries are forced into a competition for locational advantage which has all the characteristics of a Prisoner's Dilemma game (Sinn 1994). It reduces the freedom of national governments and unions to raise the regulatory and wage costs of national firms above the level prevailing in competing locations. Moreover, and if nothing else changes, the "competition of regulatory systems" that is generally welcomed by neoliberal economists (Streit/Mussler 1995) and politicians may well turn into a downward spiral of competitive deregulation and tax cuts in which all competing countries will find themselves reduced to a level of protection that is in fact lower than that preferred by any of them.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Organization, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
55649. Employment and the Welfare State: A Continental Dilemma
- Author:
- Fritz W. Scharpf
- Publication Date:
- 07-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- Estimates of the comparative health of the North American and Western European economies and societies have had their fashion cycles - from Servain-Schreiber's warnings that Europe was falling behind, rather than catching up with, American technological leadership in the 1960s, to European exasperation over American trade and budget deficits in the 1970s, to anxieties over Eurosclerosis in the early 1980s and over the American loss of international competitiveness in the late 1980s. Presently, by all accounts, the sick man is again Europe, with higher unemployment and much lower rates of job creation over the last two decades or so. The main problem is a rising level of long-term unemployment that mainly affects unskilled workers and, in most countries, young job seekers with low levels of schooling.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America, Europe, North America, and Western Europe
55650. Democracy and Globalization
- Author:
- David Held
- Publication Date:
- 05-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- One of the most conspicuous features of politics at the turn of the millennium is the emergence of issues which transcend national frontiers. Processes of economic internationalization, the problem of the environment and the emergence of regional and global networks of communication are increasingly matters of concern for the international community as a whole. The nature and limits of national democracies have to be reconsidered in relation to processes of social and economic globalization; that is, in relation to shifts in the transcontinental or interregional scale of human social organization and of the exercise of social power. This paper seeks to explore these changing circumstances and to examine, albeit tentatively, their implications for democratic theory.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Globalization, and Politics
55651. Regulatory Competition and International Cooperation
- Author:
- Philipp Genschel and Thomas Plumper
- Publication Date:
- 04-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- Recent research has shown that regulatory competition does not necessarily lead to downward pressures on regulation, but may at times also push the level of regulation upwards. Extending David Vogel's "California effect" argument, this paper shows that such upward pressure may not only result directly from the dynamics of the competitive process but also from international cooperation. Evidence from two case studies on international capital market regulation is used to identify the conditions under which cooperation in the shadow of regulatory competition is likely to succeed or fail. The successful multilateral standardisation of banking capital requirements in the BIS is compared to failed attempts to harmonise interest taxation across EC member states.
- Topic:
- Government, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- California
55652. Electricity: Liberal Futures
- Author:
- Walt Patterson
- Publication Date:
- 11-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Like the international dimension of electricity discussed in Working Paper 1, the liberal dimension of electricity has emerged only recently, at least as a recognized concept. However, whereas the international dimension is genuinely new, the dimension now characterized as 'liberal' needs closer examination. The language of policy discourse is not always consistent. Until the 1990s, policy analysts habitually referred to the electricity industry as 'conservative', in the sense that it was resistant to change and deeply wary of risk. However, those who first acted to 'liberalize' electricity were themselves 'conservative', in conventional political terms, notably the governments of Chile and the UK in the 1980s. That apparent irony in itself suggests that 'liberalizing' electricity is a more subtle and complex process than the term itself might indicate.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Chile
55653. Talking about "Tribe": Moving from Stereotypes to Analysis
- Author:
- William Minter, Chris Lowe, Tunde Brimah, Pearl-Alice Marsh, and Monde Muyangwa
- Publication Date:
- 11-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- For most people in Western countries, Africa immediately calls up the word "tribe." The idea of tribe is ingrained, powerful, and expected. Few readers question a news story describing an African individual as a tribesman or tribeswoman, or the depiction of an African's motives as tribal. Many Africans themselves use the word "tribe" when speaking or writing in English about community, ethnicity or identity in African states.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- Africa
55654. Landmines: Africa's Stake, Global Initiatives
- Publication Date:
- 04-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- The momentum for a comprehensive global ban on anti-personnel landmines is growing rapidly, and 1997 is a particularly decisive year. Africa is the most heavily mined continent, and African governments and non-governmental landmine campaigns are taking an increasingly prominent role in the global effort. The South African and Mozambican governments both announced comprehensive bans in February 1997, just as the 4th International NGO Conference on Landmines was convening in Maputo, Mozambique. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is being urged to quickly declare Southern Africa a mine-free zone, and non-governmental campaigns are gathering steam in many other African countries.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States
55655. Making Connections for Africa: Constituencies, Movements, Interest Groups, Coalitions, and Conventional Wisdoms
- Author:
- William Minter
- Publication Date:
- 03-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- This paper was prepared by APIC Senior Research Fellow William Minter for the Constituency Builders' Dialogue organized by the Africa Policy Information Center, held at Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia, over the weekend of January 10-12, 1997. The Dialogue was designed as an opportunity for a diverse group of activists from different sectors of Africa advocacy work in the United States to step back, reflect and engage in dialogue on the strategic directions for grassroots Africa constituency-building in the current period. The Dialogue was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and by ongoing support from the Ford Foundation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and New York
55656. Future Prospects for the U.S. Defense Budget and Their Implications for Our Asian Alliance Commitments
- Author:
- Andrew Krepinevich
- Publication Date:
- 08-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This talk addresses two issues. First, given the level of American defense spending, are there enough resources available to sustain the U.S. presence in East Asia, over the long term, along the lines of the current commitment of approximately 100,000 troops? Second, even if there is adequate funding to maintain forward deployed troops, are these the kinds of investments we ought to be making, given the transformations we are seeing in the geopolitical environment and, I would argue, the military-technical environment? Will these investments, in other words, achieve American security objectives in East Asia over the next ten to twenty years?
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
55657. Sankin Kotai: Institutionalized Trust as the Foundation for Economic Development in the Tokugawa Era
- Author:
- Jennifer Amyx
- Publication Date:
- 06-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This article focuses on the sankin kotai, or alternate attendance, system instituted in Japan during the Tokugawa period. Most traditional accounts of the sankin kotai system–which included an important hostage element–portray it as a product of Tokugawa statecraft devised primarily for the coercion and exploitation of daimyo, or territorial lords, and control over a feudal order. In addition, these accounts tend to take the distinctive stability of this era for granted. Given the chaos and bloodshed of the "warring states" period which preceded it, however, the phenomenon of 267 years of peace deserves a stronger explanation.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
55658. U.S.-Japan Defense Guidelines: Toward a New Accommodation of Mutual Responsibility
- Author:
- Paul Giarra
- Publication Date:
- 06-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War. The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, America, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union
55659. China's Foreign Economic Relations
- Author:
- K.C. Fung and Lawrence Lau
- Publication Date:
- 05-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- China's presence in the world economy continues to grow and deepen. The foreign sector of China plays an important and multifaceted role in the country's economic development. At the same time, China's expanded role in the world economy is beneficial to all its trading partners. Regions that trade with China benefit from cheaper and more varied imported consumer goods, raw materials, and intermediate products. China also provides a large and growing export market. While the entry of any major trading nation in the global trading system can create a process of adjustment, the outcome is fundamentally a win-win situation. It is a simple but powerful lesson from economics that freer international trade and investments benefit all parties concerned.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
55660. A Peace or just a Cease-Fire? The Military Equation in Post Dayton Bosnia
- Publication Date:
- 12-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Achieving the ambitious goals of the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina (DPA) -- forging a unified state out of the shaky Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and resistant and unstable Republika Srpska -- is a complex and difficult undertaking which has not been made easier by the quest for a so-called “exit strategy”. Ultimately, success will be judged by the durability of the peace. But as the pre-announced departure date for the NATO-led Stabilisation Force (SFOR) approaches, it is clear that a self-sustaining peace is not yet in sight.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
55661. Dayton: Two Years On, A Review of Progress in Implementing the Dayton Peace Accords in Bosnia
- Publication Date:
- 12-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Prospects for lasting peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina have improved in recent months as a result of a clear shift in approach towards implementation of the peace plan on the part of the international community. The new-found resolve has been characterised, in particular, by a snatch operation in Prijedor in July in which one indicted war criminal was captured and another killed, and the seizure by the NATO-led Stabilisation Force (SFOR) of four transmission towers used by Bosnian Serb television's (SRT) Pale studio which had hitherto been used to broadcast ethnic hatred and obstruct implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
55662. Paying for Essentials: Resources for Humanitarian Assistance
- Author:
- Shepard Forman and Rita Parhad
- Publication Date:
- 09-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- This paper was prepared as background for the meeting on "Resources for Humanitarian Assistance," which was held on September 11-12, 1997 at the Pocantico Conference Center in New York. It reflects the aggregate set of responses of the primary intergovernmental and non-governmental humanitarian service providers to an inquiry regarding their financial, managerial, and staffing concerns, as well as discussions with them and with other experts in the field. Without denying the importance of longer term development assistance and its interconnectedness with humanitarian relief, this paper's focus has intentionally been limited to humanitarian assistance in complex emergencies, with the recognition that effective emergency aid must be understood within the broader humanitarian framework. The paper briefly analyzes the overall financial situation facing the humanitarian enterprise; examines the ways in which patterns of funding, as well as gross amounts, affect the delivery of assistance; and identifies several options which could strengthen the capacity and performance of the humanitarian system, including investment in preparedness measures and in staff recruitment and training.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- New York
55663. The Cost of International Justice
- Author:
- Cesare P. R. Romano
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The issue of the financing of international justice has been generally neglected by international research. Legal scholars have rarely ventured beyond generic calls for the widening of the jurisdiction of international courts or for the creation of new courts. The financing of international justice has usually been conceived as an essentially political and technical issue and, therefore, as outside of the scope of legal discourse. Economists, on their side, have never taken a hard look at the way international law works, aside from decisions that effect the functioning of the international economic system per se. It is not surprising, therefore, that there does not exist any serious study on how much international rule of law costs, how and if efficiency could be enhanced, and where and if additional resources could be tapped to enhance the functioning of the courts themselves and allow a greater use of existing means. Hopefully, the data presented in this paper, together with some general observations proposed in the conclusions, will elicit constructive criticism and new thoughts on these much neglected aspects of this particular area of international cooperation.
- Topic:
- International Law, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
55664. Building China's Information Technology Industry
- Author:
- Stephen S. Cohen and Michael Borrus
- Publication Date:
- 11-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- At the October 29, 1997, summit meeting between President Jiang Zemin of the People's Republic of China ("China") and President Bill Clinton of the United States, President Jiang announced his government's commitment to join the Information Technology Agreement ("ITA") and thereby eliminate China's tariffs on semiconductors, computers and other information technology products. President Jiang also agreed that, in the context of the negotiations concerning China's accession to the World Trade Organization ("WTO"), China would make further substantial tariff reductions.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
55665. Turnkey Production Networks:A New American Model of Industrial Organization?
- Author:
- Timothy J. Sturgeon
- Publication Date:
- 08-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the implications of the following hypothesis: that a significant share of American firms are adapting to volatile and intensely competitive market conditions by "outsourcing" manufacturing functions to specialized merchant suppliers. At the same time, "brand-name" firms have reasserted control over product definition, design, and marketing functions, which are largely being kept in-house despite the spate of high-profile "strategic alliances" formed in the 1990s.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
55666. From Partial to Systemic Globalization
- Author:
- Dieter Ernst
- Publication Date:
- 04-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- Far-reaching changes are currently occurring in the organization and location of the production of industrial goods and services, changes which are bound to have important implications for the welfare, the development potential, and the competitive position of different countries and regions. As competition cuts across national and sectoral boundaries and becomes increasingly global, firms everywhere are forced to shift from exports to international production. Today, dominance in a domestic market—even one as large as the U.S.—is no longer enough. Mutual raiding of established customer and supply bases has become an established business practice, with the result that firms are now forced to compete simultaneously in all major markets, notably in Europe, North America and Asia.
- Topic:
- Globalization and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, and North America
55667. Partners for the China Circle?: The Asian Production Networks of Japanese Electronics Firms
- Author:
- Dieter Ernst
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- The "China fever" that has raged through the Japanese industry over the last few years, has drastically changed the locational patterns of Japanese investment within East Asia. The share of China in the investment of Japanese electronics firms abroad has increased by leaps and bounds: from the measly 0.6% of 1990 ( the year after the Tianmen massacre), it has now reached almost 7%, catching up fast with the 7.7% share of ASEAN.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
55668. Democratisation from the Outside in: NGO and International Efforts to Promote Open Elections
- Author:
- Vikram K. Chand
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- Until recently, the monitoring of elections in a sovereign country by outside actors was extremely rare. The United Nations (UN) had significant experience in conducting plebiscites and elections in dependent territories but did not monitor an election in a formally independent country until 1989, when it reluctantly became involved in the Nicaraguan electoral process. At the regional level, the Organization of American States (OAS) occasionally sent small delegations to witness elections in member states, but these missions were too brief to permit any real observation of the processes, and failed to criticise fraud. Since the 1980s election-monitoring has become increasingly common in transitional elections from authoritarian to democratic rule. Non-governmental organisations (NGOs), domestic and international, were the first to become involved in election-monitoring in the 1980s followed by international and regional organisations like the UN, the OAS, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in the 1990s. Election-monitors played a crucial role in transitional elections held in the Philippines (1986), Chile (1989), Panama (1989), Nicaragua (1990) and Haiti (1990). In addition, elections began to form a crucial element of UN 'peace-building' strategies in countries torn apart by civil strife such as Namibia (1989), Cambodia (1993) and El Salvador (1994). By the middle of the 1990s, international election-monitoring had thus become widely accepted, and fairly universal standards established for defining the term 'free and fair' elections.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Non-Governmental Organization, Sovereignty, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Philippines, Cambodia, Nicaragua, Chile, and Namibia
55669. Westphalia in Europe as West Failure Abroad? A Comparative Study of the Fate of the Nation-State in Non-Europe
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Conventionally viewing the state as a black box and focusing almost exclusively on its outward orientation, the Westphalia paradigm, I argue, has outlived its purpose, and may even be misleading when applied to the more porous and democratic state today. Rather than measure state viability in terms of power balances abroad, three constituent elements extracted from the Westphalia literature are used to evaluate internal state viability instead: the relationship between the nation and the state, the capacities of the state itself, and the state within a collectivity. Whereas the first is operationalized in terms of Buzan's four-fold typology, the second focuses on how two forms of internal divisions have been resolved—between city and country interests over policy-making, and between various classes in society through governmental income redistribution programs—while the third evaluates the propensity of the state to delegate loyalties to any supranational entity in the 1990s. Over 160 sovereign countries are pooled into 5 geographical regions for the analysis. The results strengthen the above argument, and generally portray the exceptionalism of West Europe: It is the global hub of established national states, even though there are more state nations worldwide whose historical emergence accented internal development over external security considerations; viable states, measured in terms of established democracies, urban preponderance over policy making, and welfare redistribution; and transferring loyalties beyond the state.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Maryland, and Westphalia
55670. Coping with US - Mexican Interdependence: The NAFTA Response
- Author:
- Miquel Ángel Valverde
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the theoretical discussion on interdependence, and its use for analyzing US-Mexican economic relations. It combines interdependence's premises with other perspectives on the position of North American economies in the global marketplace, arguing that NAFTA is an institutional response to these developments.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, North America, and Mexico
55671. The Politics of NAFTA: Presidential use of Side Payments
- Author:
- Miquel Ángel Valverde
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- In June 1990, President George Bush and Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari announced their intention to begin negotiating a free trade agreement. Canada joined the negotiations the following August. The proposed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) provoked an intense lobbying campaign in the US Congress, in what became a major political battle for its congressional approval. Some economic interests would win, others would lose with NAFTA. Congress members were worried about the loss of American low-skilled jobs and environmental issues. Regional interests were voiced loudly in the House of Representatives. A loose coalition of interest groups, including the AFL-CIO, public interest groups, and environmental organizations, coordinated opposition to the agreement. On the pro-NAFTA side was an ad hoc group of corporations, labeled USA-NAFTA, which included the National Association of Manufacturers and the US Chamber of Commerce. The Mexican government mounted an extensive lobbying campaign in favor of the trade pact. After intense congressional lobbying, President Bush obtained fast-track negotiating authority for NAFTA. Negotiations concluded in August 1992, and the following December, Presidents Bush and Salinas, as well as Canada's Prime Minister Mulroney, signed the pact, Presidential candidate Bill Clinton, under intense pressure from key constituencies of the Democratic Party, supported NAFTA "in principle," but only if complementary agreements on labor and environmental issues were included. Once in the office, Clinton negotiated these "side agreements" with Mexico and Canada, but still, strong opposition to NAFTA continued. In order to win congressional votes needed for the pact's approval, President Clinton engaged in a series of political compromises or "side-payments" with legislators, being able to form a congressional bipartisan coalition that allowed NAFTA passage.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico
55672. Taking the State Back Out? Comparing French Responses to Globalization in Agriculture and Shipping
- Author:
- Mark Aspinwall and Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- How autonomous is a state in today's highly interdependent international economy to pursue policies that diverge widely from the international norm? does the degree of autonomy vary for different domestic sectors? We adapt and apply Benjamin Cohen's unholy trinity model (1993), to a comparative assessment of how France responded to globalization over agriculture and shipping, focusing on three dimensions—investment, transaction costs, and government policy responses. Although France is reputed to possess a strong state machinery (Katzenstein, 1987; Wilson, 1987; Skocpol, 1985), our analysis raises qualifications. On the one hand, regardless of government policy intentions, we find irreversible forms of disinvestments in both sectors, though different in nature—geographic for shipping, and functional for agriculture; on the other, we also find continued dependence upon the state–for internal and endogenous, as well as external and exogenous, factors influence policy-making, the nature of these factors are different for the two sectors. We conclude by drawing implications of our findings for state-society relations and European integrations.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
55673. Canadian Environmental Movement and Free Trade
- Author:
- Sofía Gallardo
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- The concern for the quality of the environment reached significant proportions in the 1960's and 1970's throughout North America and Europe as other new social movements were emerging. Unlike some of the others, environmentalism has endured as a vital and major social phenomenon, one that has reoriented human perceptions, attitudes, and behavior.
- Topic:
- Environment and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, and North America
55674. Old Wine in New Bottle? The Summit of the Americas in Theoretical Perspective
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- What factors made the attainment of a regional trading bloc a priority at the Summit of the Americas? Why was it so inclusive a gathering? What are the prospects and problems of an American Free Trade Association? How can regionalism in this part of the world be explained theoretically?
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- America and North America
55675. Interest Groups in American Politics: Conceptual Elements and Key Literature
- Author:
- Miguel Angel Valverde
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- The objective of this paper is to discuss some concepts and review relevant literature on interest groups in the United States, in order to provide a broad guide to the study of the topic. It aims to explore the main questions raised by their presence in the political arena as well as suggest some themes for future research.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
55676. Environmentalism, Free Trade and Regionalism in Theoretical Perspective: An Unholy Developmental Trinity?
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Why do policy outcomes invariably fall short of expectations? Almost all studies of this puzzling topic over the last generation have revolved around a study of the limits of rational behavior. Although this literature is extraordinarily enriching, as society becomes more complex, the gap between policy intentions and outcomes seems to be widening, and constrained rational behavior appears to be accounting for increasingly less of that gap. Three incompatible policy areas today are environmentalism, free trade, and regionalism. This investigation undertakes a comparative analysis of the principles and key dimensions of those three policy areas, then transforms Benjamin Cohen's unholy monetary trinity into an unholy developmental trinity to offer a theoretical framework within which this incompatible policy-mix may be explained.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
55677. Assessing the Rules - Power Debate in Farm Trade: A Case Study of the Canadian-U.S. Free Trade Agreement
- Author:
- Imtiaz Hussain
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- Asking "How have trade disputes over agriculture been settled in North America?", this study examines 11 appeals made to binational panels established under Chapter 19 of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement of 1989. By disaggregating the process of dispute settlement into complaints, rulings, country responses, and overall settlement, it reassesses an old debate (whether dispute outcomes are influenced by collective rules or the pursuit of self-help) and sheds new light. Whereas extant studies make the argument, through a study of appeals to G.A.T.T., that collective rules temper the blind pursuit of self-help, this study makes the argument that self-help is equally important an explanation. Whereas the former focus on outcomes which are non-binding, this study focuses on outcomes which are binding. Implications are drawn, at a time when domestic interests, nationalistic sentiments, and supranational pursuits compete to influence policy outcomes at all levels, for agriculture, integration in North America, and dispute settlement at the multilateral level.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, and North America
55678. Frameworks for Security and Integration in Europe: Region-Building in South-Eastern Europe
- Author:
- Dr. Renata Dwan and Dr. Andrew Cottey
- Publication Date:
- 11-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- In 1997-98 the Institute for EastWest Studies (IEWS) is running two projects on means for strengthening cooperation in Europe. The 'Strategy Group for Strengthening Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe' is a series of meetings funded by the European Union's PHARE/TACIS Democracy Programme. Ten meetings and workshops will examine the diverse range of security problems facing the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and possible cooperative solutions to these problems. The Strategy Group brings together representatives of the Central and Eastern European Associates of the European Union and Ukraine (and Western states and neighbouring countries where appropriate). Participants in Strategy Group conferences and workshops come from diverse backgrounds, including (but not limited to) governmental representatives, politicians, business people, academics and non-governmental representatives. IEWS is joined in organizing this Strategy Group series by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA).
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Maryland
55679. Private Equity Investment in Hungary: the Competitive Edge as a Force for Innovation
- Author:
- Eugene Spiro
- Publication Date:
- 10-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- At the conference opening, György Surányi, President of the National Bank of Hungary, outlined Hungary's successful efforts to rejuvenate economic activity with the prospect of European Union membership approaching . Following the successful implementation of economic policies aimed at establishing a market economy, for the first time in 25 years Hungary is gradually moving towards sustainable economic growth. Real GDP gains of almost 4 percent per annum are evident without accompanying deterioration of the external accounts or increases in inflation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
55680. The New National Security Environment and its Impact on the Civilic-Military Relations in Bulgaria
- Author:
- Plamen Pantev
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- Civil-military relations as one of the indicators and factors for the consolidat ion of democracy in the national and international societies are undergoing deep - in some cases, or more gradual changes - in others. The absence of a univers al theory of how the relations between civil society and its military should loo k like is no reason to neglect the various sources of transformation in the civi l-military relations' field: First, the changing mission of the democratic military in the post-Cold War era; Second, the high-tech and especially the infotech revolutions that change largel y the roles of the military profession and its missions; Third, the social processes of the less developed South, or the so called "third " or "developing world" and, Fourth, the democratic transitions in the postcommunist or rather post-totalitar ian socialist world. Bulgaria is subjected to deep systemic social changes as a former totalitarian s ocialist society and state. At the same time the post-Cold War global, regional and sub-regional security situation strongly, and in some cases even decisively , motivates the national security and the more general social transformations an d adaptations. Bulgarian society and its military component cannot be isolated from the revolutionary technological and especially information technological ch anges - another major factor of understanding the complexity of the present situ ation in this country and in its armed forces.
- Topic:
- National Security, Military Affairs, and Post Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Bulgaria
55681. NATO Enlargement: Two Looks from Outside
- Author:
- Laszlo Nagy and Valeri Ratchev
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- Bulgaria’s missing institutional or effective bilateral contact pillars of national security, the conscientious alienation of Bulgaria by Russia and the treatment of the country by the west as a partner of secondary or even lesser importance endangers the very integrity of the Bulgarian society, the security of the Balkan subregion as well as the stability of Europe in general. Bulgaria desperately needs an anchor for its national security system and Laszlo Nagy’s and Valeri Ratchev’s considerations add importantly for the clarification of the issue. This Research Report is a part of the research activity of ISIS of openly and honestly assessing the needs, interests and the possible solutions of the Bulgarian national security dilemmas in the context of an All-European system of cooperation and stability.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Cooperation, National Security, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Bulgaria
55682. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 02-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and United States of America
55683. Time to End the Certification Circus
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 04-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- More than a decade ago, the U.S. Congress established a procedure whereby each year the president must “certify” that a given country is cooperating with us in the eradication of drug production and trafficking. Governments that lag behind, show little enthusiasm for our crusade, or are found colluding with narco-lords are subject to sanctions. Those “decertified” are denied foreign assistance, as well as U.S. votes for loans at the international financial institutions. Such countries–or, rather, our investors in their countries–also become ineligible for premiums from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Narcotics Trafficking, and Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and United States of America
55684. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 05-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America
55685. Arms Sales: An Old Issue Revisited
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 06-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Is the United States on the verge of pushing the major Latin American countries into a new arms race? Time seems to think so, to judge by a long article in the April 14 issue. Subtitled “the inside story of how the Pentagon and big defense contractors got the President to open the way for weapons sales to Latin America,” Time claims to provide the background to the Clinton administration’s current review of arms transfer policy. In so doing, the article revives an old controversy, namely, what role the United States plays (or should play) in the acquisition (or denial) of expensive military hardware, particularly to countries that lie within its own sphere of influence and, in the opinion of arms control experts, humanitarians, and journalists, “don’t need weapons at all.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Arms Trade
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
55686. Mexico’s Midterm Elections: A Major Turning Point?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 07-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On July 6, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a new Chamber of Deputies, renew a quarter of the Senate, and choose governors and legislators in six states. They will also have the opportunity to elect–for the first time–the governor of Mexico City, a position that, until now, has been appointive rather than elected. These races amount to both a midterm referendum on the stewardship of President Ernesto Zedillo and a crucial test of his ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Elections, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
55687. Argentina: Another Round at the Polls
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 10-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- This month President Clinton visits Argentina, a major South American country that in recent years has become one of our most valued and trusted Latin allies. His presence there will underscore the special relationship that President Carlos Sal Menem has forged with the United States, a relationship that is a mirror image of Argentina’s historic antagonism toward Washington and all its works. Clinton’s presence will also highlight Argentina’s significant victories in the economic field–in the war against inflation, in the struggle to reestablish creditworthiness, and, above all, in its efforts to attract significant new foreign investment from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The visit precedes by about ten days an important midterm election, which in all probability will determine the political lineup for that country’s 1999 presidential election. In this regard, the most important development has been the creation of a multiparty coalition, the Alliance, which will be running joint lists against the candidates of Menem’s own Peronist Party. If the Peronists hold their own on October 26, Menem will be tempted to make a bid for an unprecedented third term. If they are soundly defeated, the struggle for succession within Peronism will begin the morning after. But a victory for the Alliance by no means clearly points the way for the opposition, which is beset by profound divisions of its own. This vagueness makes these elections a particularly interesting lens through which to view Argentina’s continuing evolution.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and Latin America
55688. Who’s Afraid of Big Bad Brazil?
- Author:
- Mark Falcoff
- Publication Date:
- 11-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- On his trip to South America last month, President Clinton made quite a splash in Brazil. After starting off badly–dodging a torrent of manure thrown at his motorcade–he ended the week with the local media singing his praises. The secret of his success? The president (a quick study if there ever was one) immediately grasped that the best way to get along with Brazilians was to repeat back to them–with redoubled enthusiasm–what they told him about themselves. Thus, by the time Clinton had been in the country for thirty-six hours, he was expressing his conviction that Brazil, together with the United States, would lead the hemisphere in the twenty-first century. He also went out of his way to insist on his support for Mercosur, a subregional trade agreement-cum-political alliance of whose existence Clinton was probably only peripherally aware before his trip. In so doing, he seemed to be writing off an entire continent to the Brazilian sphere of influence.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Politics, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and United States of America
55689. Teenage Childbearing and Personal Responsibility: An Alternative View
- Author:
- Arline T. Geronimus
- Publication Date:
- 09-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- ARLINE T. GERONIMUS examines widely-shared assumptions about teen childbearing that informed the welfare reform debate. She argues that the scientific basis for these assumptions is equivocal and questions the belief that teen childbearing always represents irrationality and the abdication of personal responsibility.
- Topic:
- Reform, Youth, Welfare, Social Responsibility, and Parenthood
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
55690. Turkey-The Return of the Reluctant Generals?
- Author:
- Ben Lombardi
- Publication Date:
- 07-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- BEN LOMBARDI reviews developments currently affecting Turkish politics. He compares current trends with events in Turkey that preceded the three military coups in 1960, 1971, and 1980, and suggests that intervention in that country's domestic politics by the armed forces is a distinct possibility.
- Topic:
- History, Armed Forces, Domestic Politics, and Coup
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
55691. Full Faith and Credit for Same-Sex Marriages?
- Author:
- Ken I. Kersch
- Publication Date:
- 03-1997
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- KEN I. KERSCH addresses federalism questions involving the obligations of states to recognize same-sex marriages under the full faith and credit clause. He argues that a consideration of traditional norms of comity among states along with the nation's experience with analogous disputes concerning slavery and antimiscegnation statutes would be useful to policy makers grappling with the issue.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, LGBT+, Federalism, and Marriage
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
55692. Controversies on the Universality of Human Rights and the Conditionality of Aid
- Author:
- Franz Nuscheler
- Publication Date:
- 12-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and Peace
- Abstract:
- What is the reaction of human rights groups and academic scholars from Asia, who cannot be suspected of engaging in Western "cultural imperialism," to the challenge of "Asian values"? This INEF-Report includes the following papers: two papers presented by Sri Lankan scholars to an international conference in Colombo organized by the Goethe-Institute and the Sri Lanka Foundation; a paper by a political scientist from the Philippines read at the University of Druisburg in summer 1997; a paper on the conditionality of foreign aid presented by the editor of this INEF-Report to the above-mentioned international conference in Colombo, which was a fine example of an intercultural dialogue.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Foreign Aid, Authoritarianism, Conditionality, and Universality
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Philippines, and Sri Lanka
55693. Patent Protection, Biotechnology and Globalisation: The TRIPS Agreement and its Implications for the Developing Countries
- Author:
- Tanja Brühl and Margareta Kulessa
- Publication Date:
- 12-1997
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and Peace
- Abstract:
- Globalisation is often seen as one of the dominant trends of our times. Besides technological innovations, one of its driving forcds is the liberalisation of the world economy. The founding of the GATT's successor "World Trade Organisation" (WTO) in 1995 can be viewed as an important step towards worldwide economic integration. The "Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights" (TRIPs) is one of the WTO's components. The TRIPs Agreement aims at harmonising the level of intellectual property protection in all WTO member states at a fairly high level.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Treaties and Agreements, World Trade Organization, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Patents, and Biotechnology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
55694. Party Discipline in the Brazilian Constitutional Congress
- Author:
- Scott Mainwaring and Aníbal Pérez-Liñán
- Publication Date:
- 03-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes party discipline in the Brazilian constitutional congress of 1987-88, focusing on roll call votes in 1988. Because of the large number (1,021) of roll call votes during the constitutional congress and the availability of an excellent data base, the Brazilian constitutional congress offers an opportunity for one of the most detailed studies that has been conducted of party discipline in a Third World legislature. We begin with a discussion of how we have calculated discipline scores, given some distinctive features of the Brazilian party system and the constitutional congress. We show that the biggest Brazilian parties of this period were comparatively undisciplined, and we also show that the leftist parties were a powerful exception to this general tendency. We demonstrate that legislators who switched parties during the constitutional congress were more likely than others to be undisciplined before switching and that their discipline increased markedly after their move to new parties. Finally, we attempt to explain why discipline was low in all but the leftist parties.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Governance, Democracy, Constitution, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
55695. Is the Third Wave of Democratization Over? An Empirical Assessment
- Author:
- Larry Diamond
- Publication Date:
- 03-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the Portuguese military overthrew the Salazar/Caetano dictatorship in April of 1974, the number of democracies in the world has multiplied dramatically. Before the start of this global trend toward democracy, there were roughly 40 countries in the world that could be rated as more or less democratic. The number increased moderately through the late 1970s and early 1980s as a number of states experienced transitions from authoritarian (predominantly military) to democratic rule. But then, in the mid-1980s, the pace of global democratic expansion accelerated markedly, to the point where as of 1996 there were somewhere between 76 and 117 democracies, depending on how one counts. How one counts is crucial, however, to the task of this essay: thinking about whether democracy will continue to expand in the world, or even hold steady at its current level. In fact, it raises the most fundamental philosophical and political questions of what we mean by democracy.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, and Dictatorship
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, South America, Central America, Caribbean, and Portugal
55696. Is the Third Wave of Democratization Over? The Imperative of Consolidation
- Author:
- Larry Diamond
- Publication Date:
- 03-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- In Kellogg Institute Working Paper no. 236 I charted the progress of what Huntington has called the 'third wave' of global democratic expansion, from 1974 to the present, distinguishing among the various types of democracy that have resulted. If I am right in my analysis, democracy, and especially liberal democracy, will not expand in the coming years. It could recede into a reverse wave. It could just keep persisting, becoming less liberal and more artificial in the process. Or it could stabilize and sink firm roots in countries where it is now present-and even liberal-but not secure. If the historical pattern is to be defied and a third reverse wave avoided, the overriding imperative in the coming years is to consolidate those democracies that have come into being during the 'third wave.' In this paper I examine various conceptual approaches to consolidation and identify a number of challenges faced by new and insecure democracies. The paper concludes with a discussion of future prospects for democracy worldwide.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Globalization, Democracy, and Consolidation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
55697. Indigenous Politics and Democracy: Contesting Citizenship in Latin America
- Author:
- Deborah J. Yashar
- Publication Date:
- 07-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Ethnic cleavages have rarely given rise to political organizing and sustained political conflict in Latin America. Over the past two decades, however, Latin America has witnessed a wave of rural organizing and movement building that mobilizes Indians as Indians to advance and defend self-proclaimed indigenous rights. This paper addresses why indigenous identity has become a more salient basis of political organizing and source of political claims in Latin America over the past two decades. After analyzing alternative theoretical approaches, the paper proposes a historically grounded comparative analysis that situates indigenous identity and movement formation in relation to the process of state building and the changing terms of citizenship. Drawing on social movement theory, the author suggests the conditions under which identity and organization have merged to generate indigenous movements in the region.
- Topic:
- Politics, Race, Democracy, Citizenship, Ethnicity, Indigenous, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- South America, Central America, and Caribbean
55698. Macro Comparisons without the Pitfalls: A Protocol for Comparative Research
- Author:
- J. Samuel Valenzuela
- Publication Date:
- 04-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Comparative analysis is, with statistical and case study approaches, one of the three main tools for studying macrophenomena in the social sciences. This paper begins by delimiting its essential characteristics in contrast to the other two approaches, noting that it owes much of its strength to cases studies even though it focuses, like statistical methods, on explaining how phenomena vary, producing both similarities and differences among cases (the complex configurations of variables where the phenomena are studied). The paper then presents a protocol of research steps that must be followed in order to minimize the possibilities of error in using comparative analysis. It is easy to fall prey to such errors, given the many variables that must be examined in a smaller number of cases-the defining feature of this form of analysis. Juan Linz's work is frequently mentioned as among the most insightful in comparative analysis because it has followed, avant la lettre, the protocol presented here.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Social Movement, and Research
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Asia, and South America
55699. America's New Deal with Europe: NATO Primacy and Double Expansion
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 10-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Including analysis relevant to the 2022 Ukraine crisis, this article addresses NATO expansion, burdensharing, the Balkans crisis, and relations with Russia and Germany. The American debate and public opinion regarding NATO enlargement is reviewed as well.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Balkans, North America, and United States of America
55700. Elite Circulation & Consolidation of Democracy in Poland
- Author:
- Jacek Wasilewski
- Publication Date:
- 01-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The paper examines two aspects of democratic consolidation-institution building and value consensus through analysis of the old and new elites in Poland. It argues that although Polish democracy is established and working, it has not been fully consolidated. Poland represents the case of a ·shallow consolidation," i.e., all elements constituting a consolidated democratic regime are in place, but relations among them do not form a coherent structure typical of mature democracies.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Elites, Consolidation, and Democratic Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland