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55102. In Praise and Criticism of Mexico's Pension Reform
- Author:
- L. Jacobo Rodriguez
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The privatization of Mexico's government-run pay-as-you-go social security system, which went into effect in July 1997, is the Ernesto Zedillo administration's most important structural reform. It is a measure that, if successful, will help bring much-needed social and economic stability. The Mexican peso crisis of 1994–95 underscore d the fragility of Mexico's economy, its need for independent institutions, and its need for a large pool of long-term domestic savings. An increase in the rate of private savings in Mexico, which this reform will promote, would make the Mexican economy less dependent on short-term fluctuations of international capital flows and, thus, more stable. More important still, the privatization of social security will erect one of the basic pillars of a free society by turning Mexico into a country of property-owning workers.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and Privatization
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
55103. National Missile Defense: Examining the Options
- Author:
- Charles V. Peña and Barbara Conry
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- To date, the debate surrounding national missile defense (NMD) has been dominated by political rhetoric. Supporters (usually conservatives) often paint a “doom-and-gloom” picture, pointing out that the United States is vulnerable to an attack by ballistic missiles. Critics (usually liberals) defend the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty as the cornerstone of deterrence and stability and argue that any defensive deployment would upset the balance between the offensive strategic nuclear forces of the United States and Russia.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
55104. U.S. Assistance for Market Reforms: Foreign Aid Failures in Russia and the Former Soviet Bloc
- Author:
- Janine R. Wedel
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, the governments of the United States and other Western countries have provided massive aid to promote a transition to the free market in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. But aid for market reforms in the region has been largely ineffective. Whether provided in the form of technical assistance, grants to political groups or nongovernmental organizations, loans and guarantees to the private sector, or direct financial aid to post-communist governments, that aid has been plagued by a number of problems. The failed $22.6 billion bailout of Russia by the International Monetary Fund in July 1998 only confirmed the flawed nature of the aid-for-reform approach.
- Topic:
- Economics and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
55105. Tilting at Windmills: Post-Cold War Military Threats to U.S. Security
- Author:
- Ivan Eland
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Serious military threats to U.S. security have diminished dramatically since the end of the Cold War. The threat from conventional Russian military forces has all but disintegrated and would take many years to reconstitute. China would take 20 to 30 years to transform its bloated and obsolete military into a major threat to U.S. vital interests. The militaries in both nations should be watched, but they may never develop into credible threats.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
55106. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: The Costs Outweigh the Benefits
- Author:
- Kathleen C. Bailey
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is now before the U.S. Senate for its advice and consent. The treaty bans all explosive testing of nuclear weapons. Advocates of the CTBT make several arguments in support of the treaty. The reasons reduce to two points: the ban will constrain the modernization and development of nuclear weapons by the nations that already possess them, and it will help prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to additional nations. Both objectives are set out in the CTBT's preamble.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States
55107. Japanese Entrepreneurship: Can the Silicon Valley Model Be Applied to Japan?
- Author:
- Katsuhiro Nakagawa
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Since 1992, the Japanese economy has been utterly stagnant, with signs of weak performance at every turn. Since 1997, Japan's economy has experienced negative growth, a situation unprecedented in the postwar era. Most large Japanese corporations have engaged in extensive restructuring during this period, which has in turn contributed to 4.8 percent unemployment—higher than rates in the United States. Further, in 1998, the closure rate of small companies (3.8 percent) exceeded the start-up rate of new business ventures (3.7 percent).
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Asia
55108. Accessing Venture Capital in India
- Author:
- Rafiq Dossani
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- In the 1970s, IT exports from India began with “body-shopping,” also known as contract programming. In such contracts, the amount of code was specified in the contract and there was relatively little risk. Until 1991, this was the main form of IT exports, and it was per- formed exclusively by Indian firms. Foreign firms were deliberately excluded as a matter of government policy. It was a difficult business environment. Indian firms that were exporting bodies, as well as firms that operated only in the domestic market, found themselves operat- ing in a closed economy, featuring high tariffs on hardware imports and non-tariff barriers on software imports. Quite by accident, this situation led to a growth of skills that would be of great value to India a few years later. India's UNIX talents, now globally in demand due to the growth of the Internet, developed because the country's closed economy forced Indian computer makers to develop their own hardware and software design skills. Sridhar Mitta noted that, in 1983, the United States used an Intel 386 microprocessor as the base for a simple personal computer, whereas India employed the same microprocessor with the UNIX operating system to power mainframes that controlled large enterprises. India's closed environment also spurred the country's IT industry to develop advanced skills in system design, architecture, protocol stacks, compilers, device drivers, and boards.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, India, and Asia
55109. Assessing U.S. Bilateral Security Alliances in the Asia Pacific's "Southern Rim": Why the San Francisco System Endures
- Author:
- William T. Tow
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- At the turn of the century, the United States' postwar alliance network remains a key component of its international security policy. That policy is fundamentally based on maintaining military superiority over current and potential rivals in the Eurasian landmass.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Eurasia, Asia, and San Francisco
55110. Containment by Stealth: Chinese Views of and Policies toward America's Alliances with Japan and Korea after the Cold War
- Author:
- Yu Bin
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- At the height of the Cold War, the dominant Western theories of alliance building in interstate relations argued that alliances tend to be motivated more by an external need to confront a clearly defined common adversary than by the domestic attributes of alliance partners. The newly reinvigorated U.S.-Japan alliance, however, together with the newly expanded NATO, seems to depart from the conventional pattern by emphasizing shared democratic values and by maintaining a high degree of ambiguity regarding the goals and targets of the alliance. Although these new features of American-led military alliances provide an anchor in an other- wise highly fluid situation in the post–Cold War world, many Chinese foreign-and defense-policy analysts believe that U.S. alliances with Asian countries, particularly with Japan, pose a serious, long-term challenge, if not a threat, to China's national security, national unification, and modernization. The ambiguity of the revised U.S.-Japan security alliance means that it is at best searching for targets and at worst aiming at China.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Asia, and Korea
55111. Catch-Up; Why Poor Countries Are Becoming Richer, Democratic, Increasingly Peaceable, and Sometimes More Dangerous
- Author:
- Henry S. Rowen
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- It is easy to be confused about the world's prospect. On the one hand, since the collapse of the Soviet Union and its empire, many millions of people have been freed from economic and political shackles that had long kept them under authoritarian rule and in poverty—or at least far poorer than they should be. On the other hand, several parts of the world are beset by political turmoil and conflicts, rapid population increases, and falling incomes.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Development, Emerging Markets, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- Soviet Union
55112. Crisis and Aftermath: The Prospects for Institutional Change in Japan
- Author:
- Rafiq Dossani
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Impelled in large part by the nearly decade-long stagnation of the Japanese economy, institutions in Japan are undergoing fundamental changes. When Professors Masahiko Aoki, of the Stanford University Department of Economics, and Henry Rowen, director of the Asia/Pacific Research Center, were talking about these changes, they realized that an international conference on the subject would be useful and informative. With funding from the Asia/ Pacific Research Center and the Institute for International Studies, a distinguished group of speakers, commentators, and participants was brought together for a one-day conference to look at institutional changes in three distinct sectors of Japanese society: the political system, the bureaucracy, and corporations.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Asia
55113. Nesting the Alliances in the Emerging Context of Asia-Pacific Multilateral Processes: A U.S. Perspective
- Author:
- Douglas Paal
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- As Americans consider their options for protecting and advancing their interests in Asia in the twenty-first century, it is natural that there will be wide-ranging views and vigorous debate. Recent events such as the 1996 Taiwan crisis, the Asian economic meltdown in 1997, and the exchange of state visits by presidents Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin in 1997 and 1998 have intensified, then moderated and redirected, much of the debate over a very short span of time. Two years ago, for example, the Chinese were worrying aloud about American efforts to “encircle” China. Now they talk about “building a constructive strategic partnership with the U.S.” Despite these ups and downs, however, the fundamental choices for the United States have remained largely the same.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, Taiwan, and Asia
55114. When Realism and Liberalism Coincide: Russian Views of U.S. Alliances in Asia
- Author:
- Andrew C. Kuchins and Alexei V. Zagorsky
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Contemporary discussions of virtually any aspect of Russian foreign and security policy must take as their point of departure the extraordinarily weakened condition of the Russian Federation. There is no comparable case of such a rapid and dramatic decline in the status of a great power during peacetime in modern history. The Russian economy has been in a virtual free fall for most of the 1990s. The World Bank estimated the Russian GNP in 1997, using fixed exchange rates not adjusted for purchasing power parity, at $403.5 billion, making Russia the twelfth-largest economy in the world, just ahead of the Netherlands and just behind South Korea. Russian per capita GNP of $2,740 ranked fifty-first in the world and was in the category of “low middle” income countries. In 1997 the Russian GNP was about 5 percent of that of the United States, 8 percent adjusted for purchasing power parity. The figures for 1998 will be even starker given the devaluation of the ruble to approximately 30 percent of its 1997 value and continuing overall economic decline. A back-of-the-envelope calculation would have Russian GNP at the end of 1998 at no more than $120 billion and per capita GNP at less than $1,000.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Asia, South Korea, and Netherlands
55115. Adjusting America's Two Alliances in East Asia: A Japanese View
- Author:
- Takashi Inoguchi
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The alliances of the United States in East Asia are in a process of profound change (Okimoto 1998). The treaties with Japan and Korea are undergoing distinctive metamorphoses. These changes are the result of a number of forces that unfolded over the decades of the twentieth century, most notably the Cold War, globalization, and democratization (Inoguchi 1993, 1995; and Archibugi, Held, and Koehler 1996).
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, East Asia, and Asia
55116. Changing Relations between Party, Military, and Government in North Korea and Their Impact on Policy Direction
- Author:
- Jinwook Choi
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- North Korea has recently exhibited some noteworthy changes. In September 1998 it amended its constitution to change the power structure and introduced a number of progressive clauses. It also began to use the slogan “A Strong and Prosperous Nation,” which emphasizes economic prosperity as well as political, ideological, and military strength.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and Latin America
55117. China and the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Korea Alliances in a Changing Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Chu Shulong
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The American security alliances with Japan and South Korea have been a major concern of China's foreign and defense policies. China's position toward the alliances is determined by its foreign policy and security theories, doctrines, and principles; by its approach to a regional security mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region; by its bilateral relations with countries in Northeast Asia; and by incidental issues such as territorial disputes in Asia in which it is involved.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea
55118. New Estimates of the United States - China Trade Balances
- Author:
- Lawrence J. Lau and K.C. Fung
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The United States and China have vastly different official estimates of the bilateral trade imbalance. The U.S. figures show that the United States had a merchandise trade deficit of US$57 billion vis-à-vis China in 1998 whereas the Chinese figures show that China had a merchandise trade surplus of only US$21 billion vis-à-vis the United States. There is a difference of US$36 billion. Which set of figures is right?
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
55119. Seoul Domestic Policy and the Korean-American Alliance
- Author:
- B.C. Koh
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- While domestic politics helps to shape foreign policy, the two do not necessarily covary. That is to say, fundamental change in the former may not always trigger corresponding change in the latter. This is especially true of an alliance relationship, for a shared perception of an external threat that helps to sustain such a relationship is frequently unaffected by domestic political change.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Asia, and Korea
55120. Japan-ROK Security Relations: An American Perspective
- Author:
- Michael J. Green
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This monograph explores contemporary Japan-ROK security relations from the perspective of U.S. strategic interests in Asia. Japan and the Republic of Korea have been aligned but not allied since the beginning of the Cold War, and the United States has long been frustrated in its desire to strengthen the Japan-ROK leg of its network of bilateral alliances in Asia. The United States abandoned the goal of encouraging a formal U.S.-Japan-ROK alliance early on in the Cold War, and in the current strategic environment a trilateral alliance would probably be counterproductive. At the same time, however, the fluidity of East Asian security relations today has heightened the dangers of leaving the Japan-ROK security relationship in an ambiguous state. Closer Japan-ROK security cooperation will enhance U.S. efforts to maintain forward presence, manage diplomacy and potential crises on the Korean Peninsula, and integrate China as a cooperative partner in the region. In contrast, distant Japan-ROK relations would complicate all of these U.S. objectives. Hostile Japan-ROK relations, particularly in the context of Korean reunification, would have a spillover effect on Sino-U.S. relations and could return the region to the great-power rivalry of the last century.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea
55121. The Korean-American Alliance and the "Rise of China": A Preliminary Assessment of Perceptual Changes and Strategic Choices
- Author:
- Jae Ho Chung
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Does history repeat itself? It appears so for Korea as an unfortunate geopolitical pawn of its stronger neighbors for the last century or so. History does not seem to repeat in quite the same way, however. As Chinese diplomat Huang Zunxian recommended in 1880 that Chosun (Korea's official designation during the Yi Dynasty) “side with the Qing” ( qinzhong ) while relegating the relative importance of Japan and the United States to the levels of “aligning and connecting” ( jieri and lianmei ), respectively, Korea remained for the most part the most loyal subsystem of the Sinic world order, thereby missing out on opportunities for self-strengthening and realignment and eventually becoming a Japanese colony. More than a hundred years later, the Republic of Korea (hereafter Korea) may now be about to confront a similar dilemma, but this time with a reversed order of preferences. That is to say, the rise of China, with which Korea has already accomplished diplomatic normalization, may gradually force the Seoul government to reconfigure its Cold War–based strategic thinking and reassess its half-century alliance relationship with the United States.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Korea
55122. Asian Alliances and American Politics
- Author:
- Michael H. Armacost
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The domestic politics of our Asian alliances is like the story of the dog that didn't bark. Though our defense ties with Japan and Korea were forged in the Cold War, nearly ten years after the Berlin Wall came down, few voices are being raised to amend, let alone terminate, either the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan or the U.S.-Korea Mutual Defense Treaty. Although large numbers of U.S. troops remain in both countries, congressional criticisms of allied “free riding” are rarely heard. Our alliances with Japan and Korea provoke little discernible opposition from the Congress, the press, or the general public. Polling data suggests that public support for the alliances and for forward deployments in both countries remains high. And no prominent leaders of the Congress are threatening to link security concerns to outstanding economic issues with the Japanese or South Koreans—a tactic frequently utilized a decade ago.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Asia, and Korea
55123. Show of Force: The PLA and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Author:
- Andrew Scobell
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- China conducted a series of military exercises and missile tests in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait between July 1995 and March 1996. On July 18, 1995, Beijing announced that missile tests would be conducted targeting an area some 90 miles off the coast of northern Taiwan. Then, on three consecutive days, July 21, 22, and 23, a total of six DF-15 missiles were launched from sites in Fujian province—two per day. The following month, after a five-day advance warning, PLA naval vessels and aircraft conducted ten days of live-fire tests off the coast of Fujian. Further military exercises were conducted in mid-November to the south of the Strait, including joint operations involving air, land, and naval arms of the PLA. On March 5, 1996, Beijing announced it would soon begin another round of missile tests. This time they were to be targeted at seas less than fifty miles from Taiwan's busiest ports. On March 8, three DF-15 missiles were fired from bases in Fujian. Five days later, another DF-15 missile was launched. Finally, also after advanced warning, live-fire tests and war games were conducted off the coast of Fujian to the north of the Strait and to the south of the Strait between March 12 and March 25. The maneuvers included amphibious landing exercises and aerial bombing. Some forty naval vessels, two hundred and sixty aircraft, and an estimated 150,000 troops participated.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia
55124. The Internet and Global Telecommunications: Exploring the Boundaries of International Coordination
- Author:
- Michael J. Kleeman
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The Internet is a driving force in global communications and commerce; as such, issues related to its governance and growth have broad implications that reach beyond those of traditional telecommunications services or networks. Unlike prior communications networks that carried primarily voice traffic, the Internet collects and distributes content and facilitates global and local/national commerce— which raises two types of questions: What purposes does the network serve for users? What barriers prevent or constrain such use?
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
55125. Toward Sustainable Competition in Global Telecommunications: From Principle to Practice
- Author:
- William J. Drake
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Many observers consider 1998 to be a watershed year in the evolution of the global telecommunications industry. This view is based on the fact that two major changes in the international policy landscape have begun to clear away many longstanding barriers to competition in global networks and services.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
55126. Media Madness: The Revolution So Far
- Author:
- David Bollier and Max Frankel
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Henry, for that generous introduction. I am proud to bear the title of Catto Fellow and if I were allowed to recite your biography as you have recited mine, you would know the source of my great pride. But like Harry Evans in a similar recent situation, (and now also his wife, Tina Brown), I am reminded of the New Yorker cartoon showing a partygoer being introduced at a cocktail party while enduring the urgent plea of a spouse: “Tell them who you WERE, dear. Tell them who you WERE!” I have to emphasize who I once was not only because I have retired from executive duties but also because the Revolution that I have come to discuss often regards me as passé, out of date, an expiring person of print—you know, that dying industry. That may be so. But the revolutionary “new” media are exhausting themselves parading their newness while actually betraying highly familiar symptoms of a very old media disease. We are all mad: just not newly mad.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States and New York
55127. The Global Wave of Entrepreneurialism: Harnessing the Synergies of Personal Initiative, Digital Technologies, and Global Commerce
- Author:
- David Bollier
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Future historians may call this period the entrepreneurial age. Rarely has such an explosion of new business ventures, technological innovation, and cultural experimentation swept across diverse cultures of the globe simultaneously. Government leaders in Beijing and Singapore, Warsaw and Caracas, Moscow and London are looking to business mavericks to energize their economies. Multinational companies are eager to instill entrepreneurial values within their workforces to boost their competitiveness. On the periphery of such power centers, meanwhile, entrepreneurs large and small are remaking entire sectors of the economy and creating high-tech boomtowns in San Jose, California; Bangalore, India; Cambridge, England; Austin, Texas; and many other places.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, India, London, California, Moscow, England, Singapore, Bangalore, Austin, and Texas
55128. Information Literacy: Advancing Opportunities for Learning in the Digital Age
- Author:
- Richard P. Adler
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The foregoing paraphrase of Dickens was how one participant in the Aspen Institute's 1998 Forum on Communications and Society (FOCAS) summed up the current state and impact of the Internet. On one hand, the Internet has provided more people with more convenient access to more information in a shorter period of time than any other medium in history. It has given rise to an enormous burst of entrepreneurial activity that has led to the creation of an entire new industry in just a few years. Electronic commerce already is a multibillion dollar enterprise and will become even more important in the near future.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
55129. Accommodating Turkey In ESDP
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci and Marc Houben
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Can Turkey's demands for equal treatment with EU member states be reconciled with the EU's demand for autonomous decision capacity? This commentary analyses the Turkish position and assesses the theoretical and practical possibilities for accommodating Turkey's demands in the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP).
- Topic:
- NATO
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
55130. Five Years To The Euro For The CEE-3?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- In terms of meeting the fiscal Maastricht criteria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are better placed today than were some of the current euro area members from the “Club Med” (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) at a comparable point in time leading up to their joining EMU. The CEE-3 should thus be able to qualify for full membership by early 2006, following a decision by the EU as early as 2005.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Greece, Poland, Hungary, Spain, Italy, and Portugal
55131. Health Not Wealth
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Health, and not wealth, should be the decisive criterion when considering the prospects of the Central and Eastern European candidates for EU membership and the capacity of the EU to enlarge. Viewed from this perspective, the outlook is promising. The CEECs are still very poor, compared to most of the existing EU members, but they are also much more dynamic. Their growth rates are generally expected to remain around 4-5% for the foreseeable future, compared to about 2-3% for the EU. This still implies that full catch-up in terms of GDP per capita will take decades, rather than years, but full catch-up is not the relevant goal if one is concerned about enlargement. Experience in the EU has shown that problems are much more likely to arise from established rich member countries with stagnant economies (Belgium in the 1980s and part of the 1990s) than poor, but more dynamic states (e.g. Portugal and Ireland today). The fact that most of the so-called 'periphery' is now experiencing stronger growth than the 'core' confirms that EU integration benefits poorer countries even more.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Belgium, Portugal, and Ireland
55132. Reinventing The Climate Negotiations: An Analysis of COP6
- Author:
- Christian Egenhofer and Jan Cornillie
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- With the cancellation of the Oslo ministerial mini-summit, the prospects for an early entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol are rapidly fading. Even if the US agrees to an outcome at a resumed COPbis in July, continued Congressional opposition and unresolved questions concerning the developing countries' commitments make US ratification highly implausible.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Law, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
55133. Effects of the Berlin Summit on Own Resources, Expenditures and EU Net Balances
- Author:
- Jorge Nuñez Ferrer
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The Berlin Summit has been concluded with the suspicious outcome in which every Head of State declares victory. The tone is not so victorious by the Presidency, however, which honestly declared that Germany didn't “win the lottery”. There is reason for suspicion if, after long and arduous discussions to reform policies and reduce EU expenditure, member states declare satisfaction at the result. Something must be amiss, if painful reforms appear not to hurt. In fact, after preliminary calculations and some political considerations, there are grounds to suspect that the reforms proposed are less than satisfactory.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, and Berlin
55134. A Primer on the Balance Sheet of the Eurosystem
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The ECB has just published the opening balance sheet for the Eurosystem, which is the official name given to the ECB plus the 11 national central banks of the euro zone. All 15 national central banks are part of the ESCB, but the participation of the four outsiders is purely formal. The balance sheet, which is reproduced at the end of this Commentary, reveals two very interesting facts: During 1998, the national central banks of the euro zone increased their holdings of dollar foreign exchange reserves by the equivalent of about 38 bn euro. This means that they de facto intervened consistently to support the dollar during that year. The ECB starts with huge foreign exchange reserves: 237 bn euro plus gold worth 100 bn euro. This is much more than the amount held by the US Federal Reserve and constitutes a major share of the reserves held by all OECD countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
55135. EMU and Labour Markets: Vae Germania?
- Author:
- Daniel Gros
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The outcome of the first round of wage negotiations in post-EMU Germany sheds some new light on the old question: What impact will the euro have on labour markets and unemployment? Economists would say that it depends on the structure of the bargaining process. In wage-setting, it seems that either one of the two extremes of full centralisation or complete fragmentation is conducive to low inflation and unemployment.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
55136. The First Weeks of the Eurosystem: An Initial Assessment and a Look Forward
- Author:
- Karel Lannoo
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- With the successful launch of the euro, the start of ESCB monetary policy operations and the operation of Target payment system, the previously national interbank bank markets have been integrated at once in a unified euro interbank market. Outstanding public debt was redenominated in euro, trading conventions harmonised and all EMU stock markets have started quoting in euro. This does not, however, bring us at once to a US-style capital market. Euroland remains profoundly different from the US in the weight of the regions and the importance of banks.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
55137. Iraq's Transition: On a Knife Edge
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The situation in Iraq is more precarious than at any time since the April 2003 ouster of the Baathist regime, largely reflecting the Coalition's inability to establish a legitimate and representative political transition process. The broad plan sketched out by UN Special Adviser Lakhdar Brahimi, the apparent willingness of the U.S. to delegate at least some political responsibility to the UN and the decision to loosen the de-Baathification decree are all steps in the right direction. But critical questions remain both unanswered and, in some cases, unasked.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Eastern Europe, and United Nations
55138. Rule of Law in Public Administration: Confusion and Discrimination in a Post-Communist Bureaucracy
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- To date, little attention has been paid to the role public administration plays in enforcing or violating the human rights and civil liberties of Bosnia and Herzegovina's citizens. Instead, much effort is concentrated on reforming the court system. Yet, the justice system in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) comprises far more than the court system. It also consists of "administrative justice," where small-scale rulings by seemingly minor municipal and cantonal officials in a variety of public administrative organs, exercise a huge influence on the lives and legal rights of ordinary citizens. Many of these rulings prevent citizens from exercising their legal rights and gaining access to due process of law.</p
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
55139. Trepca: Making Sense of the Labyrinth
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The enterprise known as Trepca is a sprawling conglomerate of some 40 mines and factories, located mostly in Kosovo but also in other locations in Serbia and Montenegro. Its activities include chemical processing and production of goods as varied as batteries and paint. But the heart of its operations, and the source of most of its raw material, is the vast mining complex to the east of Mitrovicë/a in the north of Kosovo, famous since Roman times. This report examines the current position of the mines, together with the associated smelting complex at nearby Zvecan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro
55140. Starting from Scratch in Kosovo: The Honeymoon Is Over
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After an unprecedented, multilateral military intervention in Kosovo succeeded in expelling Serb forces and enabling the return home of more than a million displaced persons, the international community embarked on the ambitious, long-term project of securing, rebuilding, and establishing the rule of law in Kosovo, while setting the territory on the path to self-governance. Visionary promises were made to the people of Kosovo, and careful planning was undertaken at NATO and United Nations headquarters and in many European capitals. But six months into the mission, the international community has so far not been able to deliver on its promises. No Kosovars of any ethnicity feel secure, tens of thousands of people remain without adequate shelter as winter sets in, civil registration has yet to get underway, there is as yet no agreed-upon, functional system of justice, and criminals – including suspected war criminals – continue to operate with effective impunity.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations
55141. Is Dayton Failing?: Bosnia Four Years After the Peace Agreement
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In anticipation of the fourth anniversary on 21 November 1999 of the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, this report presents a detailed analysis of the agreement and the future of the Bosnian peace process. The report assesses efforts to implement the agreement annex by annex, identifying obstacles to continued progress and setting out key choices facing international policymakers.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia and Eastern Europe
55142. Waiting For UNMIK: Local Administration in Kosovo
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- More than four months have passed since the start of the deployment of the United Nations in Kosovo. While first efforts were concentrated on the creation of a secure environment and the distribution of humanitarian aid, Civil Administration, the pillar of UNMIK which plays the role of a government, has been slow in reaching the local level.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations
55143. Macedonia: Gearing up for Presidential Elections
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 31 October and 14 November 1999, Macedonian citizens will go to the polls to elect a successor to 82-year-old President Kiro Gligorov, who is stepping down after two terms in office.
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Macedonia
55144. Transforming Serbia: the Key to Long Term Stability
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The NATO intervention in Serbia and the indictment of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia have created openings within Serbian society and exposed cleavages within the regime that should be rapidly exploited to hasten Milosevic's departure and bring about genuine political change. The loss of Kosovo, the destruction resulting from the bombing, and the refusal of the international community to rebuild Serbia until Milosevic is out of power have occasioned widespread despair among Serbs who have come to view their country's future under its present leadership as a dead end.
- Topic:
- NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
55145. Who's Who in Kosovo
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- This paper offers a brief guide to the leading indigenous political organisations and personalities in Kosovo/Kosova. The authority of the international civil and military presence in Kosovo rests on UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 10 June 1999. Under international law no other authority enjoys any legitimacy until the UN administration grants it.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations
55146. Montenegro Briefing: Calm Before the Storm
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Just under a year ago a nervous Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic warned the world that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic was preparing to trigger a new Balkan war by launching a campaign of violence against the tiny republic of Montenegro. Djukanovic was right about Milosevic's intent, but wrong about the target. In March of this year, the dictator struck against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo and unleashed the barbarous Operation Horseshoe.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, Albania, and Montenegro
55147. Preventing Minority Return in Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Anatomy of Hate and Fear
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The 1999 action plan of the Reconstruction and Return Task Force (RRTF) represents the most determined effort yet to implement a policy of mass minority return in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the signs at mid-season are that the results for 1999 will once again be disappointing.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and War
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
55148. Rule Over Law: Obstacles to the Development of an Independent Judiciary in BIH
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- ICG, with the support of the European Commission, has established a project to promote justice in Bosnia and Herzegovina. With the assistance of 8 partner organisations based all over BiH, ICG will monitor individual cases and general trends to highlight and promote the development of a judicial system in BiH up to the standards of a modern, European judiciary. This first, introductory report examines the factors preventing the development of an independent judiciary, and outlines steps necessary to promote judicial independence.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
55149. Republika Srpska in The Post-Kosovo Era: Collateral Damage and Transformation
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Repercussions from Kosovo continue to shake Republika Srpska (RS), and may prove a catalyst for further transformation and reform. The war's collateral damage included severance of trade ties with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); a dramatic rise in unemployment; a sharp drop in production and state revenues; and a tide of Serbian refugees from FRY into RS.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Migration, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
55150. Back To The Future: Milosevic Prepares for Life After Kosovo
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 28 June 1989, Slobodan Milosevic stood on the site of the ancient Serb battleground of Kosovo Polje and delivered the speech that was to propel him to prominence and the leadership of. Ten years on, Milosevic remains firmly entrenched in power. He has survived three Balkan wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, economic sanctions, 78 days of NATO air strikes, and an indictment on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, and Croatia
55151. The New Kosovo Protectorate
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The ICG Balkans Report N°66, "Kosovo: Let's Learn from Bosnia", of 17 May 1999 looked at how experience in Bosnia could be useful in Kosovo, and also at the extent to which the Rambouillet agreement of 23 February 1999 resembled the Dayton agreement of 21 November 1995.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo
55152. Macedonia: Towards Destabilisation? The Kosovo crisis takes its toll on Macedonia
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since NATO bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began on 24 March 1999, Macedonia has been in an extremely vulnerable frontline position, facing an unmanageable influx of refugees from Kosovo, the prospect of economic collapse and volatile domestic interethnic relations.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Macedonia
55153. Kosovo: Let's Learn from Bosnia
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After almost three and a half years working in Bosnia to implement the Dayton Peace Agreement, the international community will soon face the prospect of establishing a presence in Kosovo. The model proposed at Rambouillet was very similar to that set up at Dayton, but the situation now is very different. This report examines the international effort in Bosnia to see whether lessons can be drawn for Kosovo and other possible future international administrations.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo
55154. Milosevic's Aims in War and Diplomacy
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The limits of the West's resolve to enforce a solution to the crisis in the Balkans were freshly exposed last week at a press briefing by U.S. President Bill Clinton. Speaking to reporters on 6 May 1999, Clinton admitted that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic might well survive the current crisis and remain in power in Belgrade as long as he accepted the West's terms for a settlement in Kosovo and permitted refugees to return home. He also made clear that a NATO invasion of Yugoslavia from the north, the one option open to the West that would facilitate the forcible removal of the Milosevic regime and with it the greatest single source of instability in the Balkans, was something "our (NATO's) goals never entailed".
- Topic:
- International Relations, NATO, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
55155. Why Will No One Invest In Bosnia and Herzegovina?
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The donor countries hoped the governments of Bosnia and Herzegovina would use the promised $ 5.1 Billion post-war reconstruction aid to undertake the structural changes necessary to transition from communism to capitalism. As donor-aid diminished, private investment would replace it, stimulated by structural reforms. Unfortunately, this has not been the case. Indeed, interviews with Bosnian and foreign businessmen show a common reluctance to invest in BiH.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
55156. War in The Balkans: Consequences of the Kosovo Conflict and Future Options for Kosovo and the Region
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- NATO's strategy in the war with Yugoslavia over Kosovo isn't working. As the Alliance's bombing campaign enters its fourth week, it is Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic who is still winning the political game.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
55157. Republika Srpska - Poplasen, Brcko and Kosovo: Three Crises and Out?
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The early part of 1999 has been turbulent for Republika Srpska. Political life has been unsettled by three separate and hardly-related crises: the decision of the High Representative to remove from office the RS President Nikola Poplasen; the decision of International Arbitrator Roberts Owen to give the municipality of Brcko neither to RS nor to the Federation but to both as a condominium; and the NATO air-strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
55158. Macedonia Update: Challenges and Choices for the New Government
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The new Macedonian government marked its first hundred days in office in early March. Formed by the Macedonian Internal Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the Democratic Alternative (DA), and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) after the last parliamentary elections in October and November 1998, the government is headed by VMRO- DPMNE Chairman Ljubco Georgievski and has a comfortable majority of 73 out of 120 seats in the current parliament.
- Topic:
- Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
55159. Unifying The Kosovar Factions: The Way Forward
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Kosovo peace talks, held at Rambouillet (France) under the auspices of the sixnation Contact Group, have been suspended until 15 March 1999 after a provisional agreement was reached on granting substantial autonomy for Kosovo. However, neither the Kosovo Albanians nor Serbian delegates have yet signed the draft peace accord, which calls for a NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, and in which the "final status" issue has been deliberately fudged. The immense complexities of the Kosovo question were dramatically illustrated at Rambouillet by the last-minute refusal of the Albanian delegation to sign the accord, due to pressure from a hardline faction of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) which refused to attend the talks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
55160. Kosovo: The Road To Peace Critical Implementation Issues And a "Who's Who" of Key Players
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While last spring saw conflict erupt in Kosovo's central Drenica region when Serbian security forces attacked and killed residents of the villages of Prekaz and Likoshan, this spring brings the possibility of peace. The proposed deployment of a 28,000-strong international force for Kosovo will dramatically and immediately halt the sporadic low-intensity battles between Serbian security forces and ethnic Albanian rebels that have displaced 300,000 people. This peace will allow refugees to return to their homes, and provide the day-to-day sense of security on the ground that will enable Kosovo's transition to self-government.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
55161. Sidelining Slobodan: Getting rid of Europe's last dictator
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With just over two years to run before the end of his term as Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic remains entrenched in power in Belgrade. The Yugoslav constitution currently prevents the President from running for re-election in 2001, but while Milosevic may leave the presidency he shows no sign of forfeiting control and is in the process of purging both the army and secret police of all opposition. He also retains some residual influence over such cultural institutions as the Orthodox Church. Individuals who oppose his views and who are potential political opponents are invariably intimidated, often through brute force. Political party rivals are both attacked in the state and pro-regime press and also courted with the prospect of sharing power. The latest to succumb to that temptation has been Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Yugoslavia
55162. Breaking The Mould: Electoral Reform In Bosnia And Herzegovina
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Electoral reform is on the agenda this year in Bosnia and Herzegovina. For too long the country has been ruled by leaders who draw support from only one of the three main ethnic groups. These leaders have been unable to co-operate on even the simplest matters, inhibiting the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) and forcing the international community to micromanage the country. Electoral reform offers one promising way to allow Bosnians to choose less confrontational leaders, and so start to accept responsibility for their own future.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
55163. Brcko: A Comprehensive Solution
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Arbitral Tribunal on Brcko meets this month, and may or may not this time make its final decision, after postponements in 1997 and 1998. An award to either the Federation or Republika Srpska would provoke an extreme reaction: ICG advocates that a final decision should be made now, and that Brcko municipality should be reunited and made an autonomous district under the constitutional jurisdiction of the central government of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
55164. Macedonia:"New Faces In Skopje"
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The recent parliamentary elections and the change of government in Macedonia in many respects are a landmark in the country's development. The smooth transition of power from one political camp to another and the fact that the "radicals" from both major ethnic groups rather than the more moderate parties form the new government are significant in themselves. If the new government manages to solve Macedonia's problems, it might also have repercussions throughout the region. This report, prepared by ICG's field analyst in Skopje, looks back and draws lessons from the elections and the formation of the new government, looks ahead at the key policy changes facing the new administration, and assesses the capacity of the ruling coalition to meet those challenges.
- Topic:
- Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
55165. The State Of Albania
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Premier Pandeli Majko's new coalition government is slowly consolidating its hold over the administration, though the overall power of the government remains weak after the country was rocked in September by the worst political violence since the uprising of March 1997. Within the cabinet the deputy premier Ilir Meta has emerged as the key power in most decision-making and policy implementation. The new government consists of representatives of the Socialist Party (PS), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Union of Human Rights Party (PBDNj - this party represents the ethnic Greek minority), Democratic Alliance (AD), and the small Agrarian Party (AP). The largest opposition grouping the Democratic Party (DP), led by former president Sali Berisha, does not recognise the legitimacy of the Socialist-led government, is continuing its boycott of parliament and staging street rallies to push for early elections.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Albania
55166. Too Little Too Late: Implementation of the Sarajevo Declaration
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sarajevo's Bosniac authorities were given the opportunity to demonstrate their much-vaunted commitment to multi-ethnicity when, on 3 February 1998, representatives of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the Federation of Bosnia Herzegovina (Federation), Sarajevo Canton and the international community adopted the Sarajevo Declaration. The Declaration stressed the importance of the Bosnian capital “as a model of coexistence and tolerance for the rest of the country” and made it clear that: “The international community will condition continuation of assistance for Sarajevo on fulfilment of the benchmarks set out in this Declaration and on adequate progress toward meeting the 1998 goal of at least 20,000 minority returns.”
- Topic:
- Demographics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
55167. Regional Burden-Sharing for Humanitarian Action
- Author:
- David O'Brien
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The emergence of an international humanitarian system, the codification of international humanitarian law and the corresponding creation of supportive organizations, is arguably one of the most welcomed forms of multilateralism in the 20th century. At the close of this century, billions of dollars are raised annually by the UN system to alleviate the suffering caused by natural disasters and war but this financial support is declining and increasingly unable to meet humanitarian needs. This declining resource base, along with a search to diversify sources of funding and the recognition that some emergencies receive adequate attention while others do not, raises question for the need for new burden-sharing arrangements.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, International Organization, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa
55168. Underwriting Humanitarian Assistance
- Author:
- Shepard Forman
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The hopes and aspirations for international cooperation that marked the end of the Cold War had their most exuberant expression in the industrialized countries' ambitious approach to humanitarian intervention. Confronted with an unprecedented number of internal conflicts and media images of mass suffering, the Security Council charged the United Nations with more than a dozen new missions between 1987 and 1996. Conceived largely as peacekeeping operations, these interventions nonetheless took on the requirements and drama of humanitarian assistance as genocide, mass migrations and starvation took their toll on millions of people.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
55169. The Globalization of Services: What Has Happened? What Are the Implications?
- Author:
- Gary Hufbauer and Tony Warren
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Globalization has affected all facets of the world economy. This includes services, which in most economies are the single largest contributor to economic growth and employment. However, despite its importance to national output, the impact of globalization on services is only recently receiving the attention of researchers and policy-makers.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
55170. Hazards and Precautions: Tales of International Finance
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Erika Wada
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- In the wake of financial crises in Mexico (1994-95), Asia (1997-98), Russia (1998) and Brazil (1998-99), respected observers have questioned the benefits of wide-open international capital markets (Bhagwati, 1998; Krugman, 1998; Rodrik, 1998; Eichengreen, 1999). Our purpose is to identify true hazards and suggest appropriate precautions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Asia, Brazil, and Mexico
55171. Does Talk Matter After All? Inflation Targeting And Central Bank Behavior
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Since 1990, a number of countries have adopted inflation targeting as their declared monetary strategy. Interpretations of the significance of this movement, however, have differed widely. To some, inflation targeting mandates the single-minded, rule-like pursuit of price stability without regard for other policy objectives; to others, inflation targeting represents nothing more than the latest version of cheap talk by central banks unable to sustain monetary commitments. Advocates of inflation targeting, including the adopting central banks themselves, have expressed the view that the transparency and communication of the inflation targeting framework grant the central bank greater short-run flexibility in pursuit of its long-run inflation goal.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
55172. Modeling Korean Unification
- Author:
- Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Tao Wang
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- For North Korea, product market integration would generate large welfare gains, sufficient to end the famine. Additional gains could be had through military demobilization. For the South, the impact of product market integration would be trivial, but the impact of factor market integration would be considerable, affecting the composition of output, distribution of income, and rate of growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Israel, East Asia, and Korea
55173. Sovereign Liquidity Crisis: The Strategic Case For A Payments Standstill
- Author:
- Marcus Miller and Lei Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Is sovereign borrowing so different from corporate debt that there is no need for bankruptcy-style procedures to protect debtors? With the waiver of immunity, sovereign debtors who already face severe disruption from short-term creditors grabbing their currency reserves are also exposed to litigious creditors trying to seize what assets they can in a 'race of the vultures'.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
55174. Panama Canal Transition: The Final Implementation
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, Jr. Gillespie, Brandon Grove Jr., and David E. McGiffert
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The implications of the transfer of the Panama Canal go well beyond U.S. relations with Panama. This complex transition provides an important lesson for Latin America and the rest of the world on how countries of vastly different size and outlook can work together. The success of this 20 year process lies mainly in first identifying the primary common interest of the United States, Panama and the major canal users: access to an open, safe and efficient canal. Important but secondary concerns, including U.S. military access to facilities in Panama, were addressed during the process but never were allowed to displace the primary interest. By focusing on this clear, compelling key objective, both Panama and the United States were able to accommodate fundamental changes in the political, economic and security context, including several changes in administrations, tough negotiations and even a military confrontation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Latin America
55175. Beyond Kosovo: A Regional Approach to the Balkans
- Author:
- Roger Kirk, Jack M. Seymour Jr., John Lampe, and Louis Sell
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Basic Factors Underlying a Regional Settlement 1. Any overall settlement in the Balkans should be area-wide and coordinated among the entities directly involved, the neighboring states, the key nations of the outside community, and the relevant political and economic international institutions. 2. It will have to include political arrangements, international security guarantees, and substantial economic assistance as a basis for genuine peace and reconciliation. 3. It must embrace generally accepted international standards, including respect for human rights and rights for ethnic minorities; right of return for all area refugees; rule of law; effective media freedom; and free elections supervised or, where necessary, organized by the international community. 4. The settlement should promote and institutionalize political and economic cooperation, regional trade and/or formal ties among the participating states and entities of the former Yugoslavia, and neighboring states as feasible, including the free flow of goods, labor and capital. 5. International assistance in reconstruction, economic reform and development of economic ties among the peoples of the region and with the European Community must be massive. It should, however, be designed to promote democratic institutions, market reform, adherence to peace agreements, and respect for human rights. 6. Such assistance should target the private sector, encourage local initiatives, and help governments pursue effective economic reform policies. It should seek to curtail corruption and the maintenance of unprofitable state industries. It should avoid encouraging international dependency. The purpose should be to build societies and practices conducive to self-reliance, international cooperation, and outside investment. Positive and negative lessons can be drawn from experiences in Bosnia. 7. The support of the broad population of Serbia will be necessary if peaceful and economically viable regional arrangements are to last. The reconstruction process implied in these arrangements will itself be an incentive for the Serbs to opt away from destructive nationalist policies and join in the regional reconstruction process. 8. Neither lasting peace in the Balkans nor democracy in Serbia can be achieved as long as Slobodan Milosevic remains in power. He has been indicted by the Tribunal in The Hague for crimes against humanity and his removal from power is a prime NATO objective. There are increasing and encouraging signs of popular Serb desire to be rid of Milosevic, but it is not certain that he will depart in the near future. 9. A regional settlement may have to be negotiated indirectly with, or imposed upon, Milosevic as the ruler of Serbia. It should nevertheless be made clear that the West condemns Milosevic\'s actions, that Serbia cannot resume its rightful place in Europe as long as it is governed by indicted war criminals, and that the West will help the people of Serbia in their efforts to bring forth new, democratic, cosmopolitan leadership in their country. 10. The Kosovar Albanians cannot be expected to live under Serbian control again for the foreseeable future. Arrangements short of formal independence such as an international protectorate or trusteeship are possible, indeed likely, for a transitional period. A more permanent and self-sustaining arrangement is highly desirable if it can be achieved without creating more instability in the former Yugoslav space and the neighboring area. 11. A credible international military presence is needed to encourage the return of the remaining Albanian-Kosovars, the continued residence of Serb-Kosovars and to maintain peace and order within Kosovo and on its borders. Such a presence will also be a lasting part of any transitional arrangement. Any foreseeable regional settlement will similarly require a prolonged foreign military presence. This settlement should, however, lay the foundation for an end to that presence by, among other things, providing for supervised demilitarization of the states and entities involved, and a comprehensive regional arms control agreement. 12. A central objective of any regional settlement should be to promote conditions that will encourage a stable political and military environment, economic growth, and increasing self-reliance. These changes will permit an end to the foreign military, political, and economic presence in the region, though no date for that termination should be set.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Kosovo, and Balkans
55176. Building an Asia-Pacific Security Community: The Role of Nuclear Weapons
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, James E. Goodby, Tomohisha Sakanaka, W. Neal Anderson, Tomohide Murai, and Shinichi Ogawa
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The main challenge for Asia is to build a security community that transforms a legacy of military competition into security cooperation. This transformation will be difficult because of the high level of distrust among the states and considerable uncertainty about future relations. Asia lacks the kinds of developed, institutionalized multilateral security arrangements that contribute to transparency, confidence-building and long-term stability. Furthermore, a “ business as usual ” approach that focuses on managing bilateral relationships is unlikely to result in a security community. More attention needs to be devoted to multilateral security efforts. Without the reassurance of a network of cooperative arrangements, including verifiable arms limitations, potential adversaries may place their hopes in achieving unilateral military advantages. Such efforts could foster fears of regional domination and, in turn, a potential arms race that includes nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
- Topic:
- Security and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
55177. An Appropriate Role for Nuclear Power in Meeting Global Energy Needs
- Author:
- Donald L. Guertin, Richard E. Balzhiser, Christian Gobert, William J. Dirks, Joy C. Dunkerley, and Stephen P. Pettibone
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Despite the recent global economic slowdown, the demand for energy services is bound to increase over the long term in order to provide improved living standards for growing populations, in particular in developing countries. In recognition of its unique characteristics, the demand for electricity will rise even faster than total energy. Several studies present scenarios that show a doubling of global installed capacity over the next twenty years.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
55178. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise
- Author:
- Philip Manow
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped there-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
55179. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise
- Author:
- Philip Manow
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped the re-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
55180. Environmental Quality and Regional Conflict
- Author:
- Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Allen Hammond, David A. Hamburg, Donald Kennedy, John D. Steinbruner, and Timothy E. Wirth
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict
- Abstract:
- This Web cast highlights issues raised by Donald Kennedy, president emeritus and Bing Professor of Environmental Science of Stanford University, in his newly released monograph Environmental Quality and Regional Conflict. David Hamburg, president emeritus of the Carnegie Corporation and Tim Wirth, president of the United Nations Foundation, will give introductory remarks. In addition to Kennedy, presenters include John Steinbruner, senior fellow at The Brookings Institution; Jessica Mathews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Allen Hammond, director of strategic analysis at the World Resources Institute
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Environment, Peace Studies, and Science and Technology
55181. From Civil War to Civil Society: The Transition from War to Peace in Guatemala and Liberia
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- Freed American slaves began to settle what is currently known as Liberia in the 1820s, often in the face of hostility from the local inhabitants. By 1847, the ex-slaves and their descendants had declared a republic and began a 150 year period of Americo-Liberian elite rule based on domination and exploitation of the indigenous population. In 1980, Americo-Liberian rule ended with a military coup staged by Samuel Doe. The ensuing regime, violently suppressed any form of opposition for the next ten years, creating deadly ethnic cleavages.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Central America, Liberia, and Guatemala
55182. Developing a Methodology for Conflict Prevention: The Case of Estonia
- Author:
- Joyce Neu and Vamik Volkan
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- In April 1994, with Russian troops still stationed in Estonia, The Carter Center's Conflict Resolution Program (CRP) joined with International Negotiation Network (INN) members Vamik Volkan of the University of Virginia's Center for the Study of Mind and Human Interaction (CSMHI) and Harold Saunders of the Kettering Foundation to implement a set of workshops. The three-year series aimed to reduce tensions on two fronts: between Russia and Estonia and between Russians in Estonia and Estonians.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Estonia
55183. Transparency Project
- Author:
- Jennifer McCoy and Shelley McConnell
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- The Carter Center's Americas Program and its Council of Presidents and Prime Ministers of the Americas have initiated a multiyear project to work with governments and civil society to develop monitoring mechanisms to help combat corruption in government transactions and serve as a model for the rest of the world. Greater "transparency" in government-business interactions can improve investor confidence, spur economic growth, provide better public services to the population, and increase public confidence in democratic institutions. At a high-level conference May 4-5, 1999, leaders from across the hemisphere came to The Carter Center to evaluate specific anti-corruption efforts and seek commitments from other governments to implement similar strategies in their own countries. In preparation for that conference, The Carter Center partnered with three countries—Ecuador, Jamaica, and Costa Rica—to develop and assess specific anti-corruption tools.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Human Rights, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean
55184. The Geopolitics of Energy Development in the Caspian Region: Regional Cooperation or Conflict?
- Author:
- Vadim Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The Caspian Basin has emerged in recent years as a major focus of international affairs for a combination of political, economic, and geostrategic reasons. In the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union's dissolution in the early 1990s the region's newly independent states were overshadowed by Russia and attracted little Western and U.S. attention. But over the past several years this region has attracted growing attention from Western policymakers and scholars, as well as the media and the private sector. One of the main reasons for this new focus on the Caspian is its sizable energy reserves. In addition to its potential as a significant oil producer, however, it is also the Caspian's geostrategic location, its diverse mix of ethnic groups, and its unsettled intrastate and interstate conflicts that make it both an enticing and challenging region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Development, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Caspian Sea
55185. The Cox Committee Report: An Assessment
- Author:
- Michael M. May, Alastair Iain Johnston, W.K.H. Panofsky, Marco Di Capua, and Lewis R. Franklin
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The Cox Commission of the U.S. Congress was established in June 1998 to investigate concerns over Chinese acquisition of sensitive U.S. missile and space technology in connection with the launching of U.S. civilian satellites using Chinese launchers on Chinese territory. The investigations were broadened in October 1998 to include alleged security problems and possible espionage at the U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories. Some conclusions were released in January 1999 by the White House together with the administration's response. The full declassified (redacted) version of the report of the Cox Commission was released on May 25, 1999.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
55186. The U.S. Military and Civil Infrastructure Protection: Restrictions and Discretion under the Posse Comitatus Act
- Author:
- Gregory D. Grove
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- This article sets out the constraints of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 (the “Act”), which generally prohibits active enforcement of civilian laws by the military, and describes the discretion of the military commander to assist civilian law enforcement in protecting America's information infrastructure against computer—assisted attack. A primary purpose of this article is to help legal advisors to commanders and DoD civilian officials better understand the boundaries of command discretion so that commanders and officials can feel free to exercise proper command discretion to assist law enforcement according to military interests and their professional and personal ethics and ideals. Another primary purpose of the article is to appraise Congress of the Act, its prohibitions, and its application to assist in framing the policy debate about how to constrain or expand the discretion of commanders and other officials to most productively serve the American public.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
55187. The Nonproliferation Regime under Siege
- Author:
- George Bunn
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The nuclear nonproliferation regime was challenged in 1998 by nuclear-weapon tests in India and Pakistan, by medium-range missile tests in those countries and in Iran and North Korea, by Iraq's defiance of UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to complete its disclosure of efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and by the combination of “loose nukes” and economic collapse in Russia. Additional threats to the regime's vitality came in 1999 from the erosion of American relations with both China and Russia that resulted from NATO's 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia—with additional harm to relations with China resulting from U.S. accusations of Chinese nuclear espionage and Taiwan's announcement that it was a state separate from China despite its earlier acceptance of a U.S.-Chinese “one China” agreement. Major threats to the regime also came from the continued stalemate on arms-control treaties in the Russian Duma and the U.S. Senate, from a change in U.S. policy to favor building a national defense against missile attack, and from a Russian decision to develop a new generation of small tactical nuclear weapons for defense against conventional attack.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Korea
55188. Commercialization of Russian Technology in Cooperation with American Companies
- Author:
- David Bernstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- The Soviet Union placed a high priority on science and technology and built a huge assembly of research institutes, educational programs, design bureaus, and production enterprises embodying some measure of science and/or technology. This assembly concentrated over—whelmingly on military applications. Approximately three—quarters of this complex was located in Russia, but essential elements of many programs were located in other republics. The nature, structure, size, and operation of this military—industrial complex (MIC) as well as its decline and change during the Gorbachev and post—Soviet periods of economic transition have been documented in the literature.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
55189. Climate Change and the Transformation of World Energy Supply
- Author:
- Steve Fetter
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- In December 1997, world attention turned to Kyoto, Japan, where parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) negotiated a protocol to reduce the greenhouse-gas emissions of the industrialized countries by 5 percent below 1990 levels over the next ten to fifteen years. The agreement has been attacked from both sides. Environmental groups assert that much deeper reductions are urgently needed. Opponents claim that the proposed reductions are either unnecessary or premature, would curtail economic growth, or would be unfair or ineffective without similar commitments by developing countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Japan
55190. A Cross-Regional Analysis of Civil Society and Democratic Development
- Author:
- Andrew Green
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- Domestic instability often has a deleterious effect at the international level, too, particularly as more states adopt democratic institutions and market-oriented economies. Whether we are talking about failing multi-ethnic states and their impact on the UN and NATO, or about failing economies and their impact on international markets and such international organizations as the IMF and the World Bank, it is clear that the domestic and international levels cannot be separated. While instability may arise from many different sources, the state-society connection is perhaps the most problematic: a democracy in which the only link between citizens and politicians is the electoral connection is a democracy impoverished by stagnant ideas and limited societal input. A state disconnected from society is prone to domestic instability, with negative effects at both the domestic and international levels.
- Topic:
- NATO, Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, International Political Economy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
55191. The Competitive Advantage of Hollywood Industry
- Author:
- Luc Veron
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- The author is very grateful for the support, both material and intellectual, which he received during his stay at the University of Southern California. He is particularly appreciative of the many conversations he had with colleagues at the School of International Relations, the Center for International Studies, the Marshall School of Business and the Department of Economics of USC as well as at UCLA's School of Public Policy and Social Research which greatly helped him to formulate the ideas presented here. Although the author is currently employed by the European Commission, the ideas expressed in this paper are purely personal and do not reflect the views of any institution.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and California
55192. Hollywood and Europe: A Case of Trade in Cultural Industries, the 1993 GATT Dispute
- Author:
- Luc Veron
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- The heated dispute that erupted at the end of the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) negotiations between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) on audio-visual services is fairly representative of the cultural argument in trade. Culture is often proclaimed to oppose full liberalisation of international exchanges of goods and services. In 1989, after the liberalisation of US film import in Korea, angry Koreans directors in some Seoul theatres showing US movies released poisonous snakes Japan traditionally opposed rice imports on the basis that it would endanger Japanese culture. The United States claimed that the "potato-potato-potato rhythm at idle and the staccato beat at cruising speeds" of a Harley-Davidson was part of the American culture with the obvious aim to ridicule any notion of culture, or more precisely of national culture. German director Wim Wenders replied to the latter by provocatively reminding that the essence of US national culture being trade the Americans have no sense of any possible contradiction between trade and culture. When, to justify the remarkable work of the Australian Film Commission, experts came up with a tentative definition of Australian culture, the simple evocation of Crocodile Dundee generated outrage, especially among the feminists. It is uneasy to find an acceptable and workable definition of national culture to analyse its impact on trade.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Europe, Germany, Australia, and Korea
55193. Peacekeeping and Intervention in the Former Yugoslavia: Broader Implications of the Regional Case
- Author:
- Plamen Pantev
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- The aims of this research report are: First, to substantiate the meaning of the terms "intervention" and "peacekeeping" in the cases of Bosnia and Kosovo and how this may influence the broader interpretation of these activities in the post-Cold War period. Second, by learning from intervention and peacekeeping, as well as from conflict prevention and post-conflict rehabilitation in former Yugoslavia, to draft the prerequisites of a fundamentally new and more effective approach to international legal regulation of international relations, including to the timely management of regional conflicts. Third, to present some of the other interests beyond the moral and humanitarian ones that motivated the intervention, the peacekeeping and the strenuous peace building efforts in the post-Dayton and the post-Kosovo periods. The realisation of these tasks may facilitate theoretical and political work for shaping a more secure post-Cold War world.
- Topic:
- Peacekeeping, Humanitarian Intervention, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, and Balkans
55194. Conflict Prevention in the Baltic States: The OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
- Author:
- Rob Zaagman
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- The importance of national minority questions has long been recognised by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and this organisation has dealt with them extensively. Initially overshadowed by the East-West stand-off, minority issues were framed exclusively in terms of individual human rights, in particular the rights of persons belonging to national minorities. In “post-Wall” Europe, however, the explosive potential of many of them —e.g., in Yugoslavia and the Caucasus—became all too apparent. It also became clear that in this new era international violence would be mainly a consequence of domestic conflicts. Moreover, soon after the break-up of the Soviet Union the issue of the ethnic Russians outside the Russian Federation became an important factor in international relations in the OSCE area. As a result, minority issues are now mainly seen from the angle of conflict prevention, although this does include the continued pursuit of the implementation of human rights. The importance the OSCE attaches to minority issues as problems of peace and security is reflected most prominently in the office of the High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM) which was established in 1992 to prevent violent ethnic conflict. Equally, it finds its reflection in the mandates of most, if not all, of the long-term missions the OSCE has established over the years, of which inter-ethnic issues are the main and sometimes exclusive component. These developments fit in the increased emphasis the OSCE has been putting on conflict prevention, playing the role of an impartial, non-coercive third party. Against this background, the tense inter-ethnic relations in Estonia and Latvia were addressed early on by the OSCE. Even though no inter-ethnic violence had taken place, a number of factors made for a volatile mix in both Baltic states: firstly, the existence of domestic tensions between a large minority of mainly Russians without citizenship who had to get used to postSoviet realities and a majority determined to preserve and strengthen its own identity; and secondly, increasing international tensions because of the active interest which neighbouring Russia, mainly for geopolitical reasons, was taking in the condition of its kinfolk in Estonia and Latvia. By contrast, these factors were absent in the third Baltic state, Lithuania. As analysed in the following, the situations in Estonia and Latvia were typically cases for which the OSCE High Commissioner had been established. They demonstrate the extent to which international involvement can keep domestic conflicts tractable—by helping the parties to devise policies and positions which avoid an escalation of disputes and possibly irreconcilable differences—and thus at the same time prevent the build-up of international conflict potential. They are also showcases for the specific approach the OSCE High Commissioner has developed in dealing with tense inter-ethnic situations. Although for reasons of space the main emphasis of this paper will be on Estonia, it should be realised that many similar issues are at stake in Latvia.
- Topic:
- Security, Minorities, Conflict, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States
55195. The Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Minority Language Policies: Case Studies on Wales, Ireland and the Basque Country
- Author:
- François Grin and Francois Vaillancourt
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- The main contribution of the monograph is to demonstrate that it is possible to assess the output and costs of various language policies in such a way as to allow an explicit evaluation and ranking in terms of their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. To our knowledge, this study is the first of its kind, because it stresses the role of common units of measurement in order to make it possible to compare policies. We have therefore attempted to develop an approach different from that adopted in many existing discussions of the implementation of language policies. Such discussions often focus on the targets chosen (sometimes elaborating on targets put forward in earlier policy documents), and on the specific measures adopted to meet these targets; sometimes they offer a descriptive presentation of the effects of such measures. For example, a language planning office may set, as a target, the increase in the level of minority language skills of all teachers and school administrators in a particular region, whether they do or do not work in an establishment which uses the minority language as a medium of instruction. The authorities can then adopt corresponding measures, such as the legal requirement that all schoolteachers meet certain proficiency levels in the minority language. If some survey, five years on, confirms that the average competence level of schoolteachers in the minority language has risen, this will be a satisfactory result, but a moderately surprising one; at most, it would suggest that the “technical effectiveness condition” (condition No. 4, Section 6.2) has been met. Such an observation would, however, be of limited help in assessing whether this particular measure is effective or cost-effective with respect to a broader end-goal, such as the revitalisation of the minority language.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Ethnicity, Language, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Spain, Ireland, and Wales
55196. Language Policy in Multilingual Switzerland - Overview and Recent Developments
- Author:
- François Grin
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- Switzerland is often quoted as a success story for its handling of linguistic and cultural diversity. In this presentation, I will try to assess this success: to what extent is this reputation justified? What are the conditions that have resulted in this very particular way of dealing with diversity in a multilingual state? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the “Swiss model”? Since time and space are too limited to engage in a full-fledged historical, political, sociolinguistic and economic assessment of Swiss quadrilingualism, let alone in a comparative discussion, I will eschew the usual presentation of demo- and sociolinguistic data in favour of a more interpretative approach, with the aim to provide the reader with an analytical, rather than descriptive perspective on Swiss multilingualism today. Much relevant detail will have to be omitted, meaning that this text will concentrate on what I consider to be the essential dimensions of the problem. However, additional information (including an array of relevant figures) can be found in the references listed at the end of this paper. This paper is organised as follows. In Section 2, I review the historical foundations of Swiss multilingualism; the corresponding institutional arrangements are presented in Section 3; Section 4 is devoted to a discussion of the current challenges that Switzerland is confronted with in its handling of linguistic diversity.
- Topic:
- Multiculturalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, Diversity, and Language
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Switzerland
55197. The American Economy: Sustaining Growth with Opportunity
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- From the June 1999 American Assembly of the same name, the report focuses on the issues of productivity, income inequality, and the aging of the baby boom generation.
55198. Evaluating the Post-Cold War Policy of the United States
- Author:
- Jonathan Dean
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Ambassador Jonathan Dean, Adviser on International Security Issues, Union of Concerned Scientists, presentation to the PDA symposium Ten Years After the Wall: Trends in post-Cold War U.S. Security Policy held at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 11 November 1999.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
55199. Islam In Economic Organizations
- Author:
- Ayşe Buğra
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- This project approaches the political economy of Islamic resurgence in Turkey by exploring different uses of Islam as a strategic resource. The study is organized in five parts: The first section situates Islamic resurgence in its international and domestic context and shows that Political Islam in Turkey derives its strength largely from its ability to respond to the challenges of the current environment. The second section looks at the manifestations of Islam in business life through an analysis of a) MÜSİAD (The Association of Independent Industrialists and Businessmen) that could successfully bring together a large number of enterprises of different sizes located in different geographical regions of the country, and b) special financial institutions as well as other, more informal arrangements used to generate investment funds on the basis of "relations of trust among the believers". In the third section, marketing strategies directed to Muslim consumers are explored through an analysis of certain advertising agencies and TV channels either owned by sect affiliated groups or known by their closeness to Political Islam represented by RP/FP. In the fourth section, the development of the labor union confederation Hak-Is, an important element in the RP/FP constituency, is discussed. Finally, the conclusion presents a summary of the findings. The findings of the study in these areas suggest that what could be called the economic world of Islam in Turkey is formed by networks of social relations which do not constitute a coherent whole, but appear as separate power blocs which try to reach those groups that feel alienated form the secular westernized political and economic establishment for the generation of investment of funds, for the marketing of specialized products, or in organized interest articulation and representation by business associations and labor unions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Islam, Political Economy, Business, and Labor Unions
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
55200. India and Pakistan’s Fissile Material and Nuclear Weapons Inventory, end of 1998
- Author:
- David Albright
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- Estimating the size of India and Pakistan’s inventory of separated weapon-grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU) has become more difficult following their nuclear tests in May, 1998. Both countries treat these numbers as highly classified, partly because such estimates provide a direct indication of the number of nuclear weapons they possess. In the case of Pakistan, what can be surmised is that it has resumed full-scale production of HEU, following a declared moratorium on such production since 1991. Abdul Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan’s uranium enrichment program, announced soon after the Pakistani tests that his country had never stopped making HEU. Although his comment has been greeted skeptically, it indicates that Pakistan may have resumed making weapon-grade uranium well before its tests in May, 1998.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Uranium, and Plutonium
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, and India