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54901. Europe and the Mediterranean: The Barcelona Process Five Years On

Author:
George Joffé
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In November 1995, the European Union signed a wide-ranging declaration with the twelve littoral states of the South Mediterranean at the end of a major conference in Barcelona. The declaration outlined an agreed policy for future relations between the EU and its Mediterranean partners which sought to create a zone of shared stability, prosperity and peace. This policy is designed to condition relations throughout the Mediterranean on a new basis of partial economic integration and cooperation over mutual security issues, together with support for regional political, cultural and social development. It has extremely ambitious objectives and represents a new departure for the European Union, although the means proposed to achieve it have been modest. Now, almost five years after its inception, it is appropriate to consider to what degree it has begun to realize the objectives it set for itself, given the fact that they should be achieved by the year 2010.
Topic:
Security and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Barcelona

54902. Emerging Threats on the Internet

Author:
Mariyam Joyce-Hasham
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Fears about extremist groups operating on the Internet are on the increase. This is paralleled by concern about the ways in which such groups can use Internet technology to disrupt or undermine familiar ways of life in stable societies. The Internet appeals particularly to groups that operate at substate level, most visibly the neo-Nazis and hate groups at the forefront of the resurgent white pride movement in America.
Topic:
Security and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and America

54903. An Ever Larger Europe

Author:
Julie Smith
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Thirteen countries are currently seeking to join the European Union. Several more countries, including some Southeast European states that have already signed Stability and Association Agreements with the EU, not to mention some of the Caucasian and Central Asian members of the CIS, have also expressed a desire to be considered for membership at some point in the future. While those former Soviet states, with the possible exception of Moldova, are unlikely to join, the EU is committed to enlarging to the south and east.
Topic:
International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

54904. Trade and Environment After Seattle

Author:
Duncan Brack
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The interrelationship between international trade and environmental protection is becoming increasingly important – and controversial. The volume of world trade in goods topped $5 trillion for the first time in 1996, having grown at an average rate of about 8% a year since the signing of the Marrakesh agreement in 1994 which marked the completion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. The set of agreements administered by the World Trade Organization (WTO), centred around the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and covering areas such as agriculture, textiles, services, intellectual property, technical barriers to trade and health standards, represents a significant extension in scope compared with its pre-Uruguay Round version. In turn this means that international trade regulation increasingly impinges on other areas of public policy.
Topic:
Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance

54905. Gas For Oil Markets

Author:
Koji Morita
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Public projections by the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the European Commission suggest that, with present policies, world consumption of gas will roughly double by 2020, taking about 5% of the primary energy market from other fuels. About half this gain will be at the expense of more carbon-intensive fossil fuels, mainly coal, but the other half will replace carbon-free nuclear energy. The net effect on the growth of greenhouse gas emissions will therefore be small. For comparison, gas consumption increased in the past 20 years by almost 80%, at the expense of other fossil fuels. Half the increased gas demand is projected for developing countries, compared with 45% of the increase over the past 20 years and their present share of about a quarter of total world gas consumption.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

54906. Changing Oil

Author:
Norman Selley
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Black gold, as oil is sometimes called, has a double image. On the negative side crude oil is typically seen only when accidents occur – when it spills from ships, pollutes beaches or kills wildlife. The positive is taken for granted. Users rely on oil's refined products to power transport and heat or cool homes invisibly, as required. The twentieth century progressed hand in hand with increased usage of oil, in times of both war and peace, and can justifiably be described as the Oil Era.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology, and Third World

54907. Financial Services Liberalization in China: Conservative Gradualism

Author:
Chen Yixin
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Recent years have seen increasing liberalization of trade in financial services associated with the GATT / WTO negotiations. The Agreement concluded on 13 December 1997 by 70 WTO members will result in a significant impact on the financial services sector for these members. Although China has not yet been admitted to membership of the WTO, it has come under pressure to open its financial services market. Market access in this sector has been not only one of the major issues in its WTO accession talks, but also intrinsically linked to China's ongoing domestic financial system reforms, consistent with the gradualist scheme for its overall economic reform. China has been liberalizing its financial services sector, but only gradually. This paper outlines the reforms in its financial sector since 1979, and then offers an explanation for the slow speed of reform .
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Shanghai

54908. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2000

Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index declined 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index declined 0.1 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity. The slowdown of the Leading Index is primarily a result of the sustained inverted yield curve, shorter manufacturing hours brought about by tapering consumer demand, and loss of confidence on the part of both business executives and consumers in the future direction of the economy. Since reaching a peak in September, the Coincident Index remains fairly flat, consistent with a moderation in the pace of economic activity. The six-month change of the Leading Index has been declining for 7 consecutive months with the most recent two months having declined over one percent. Prior to these past seven months, the last time the Leading Index posted a decline in the six-month change was in August of 1995.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

54909. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2000

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity ahead. Since the high of 106.3 in January of this year, the Leading Index was down in eight of the past ten months. This is in sharp contrast to a 1.5 to 2 percent gain annually in the previous three years. The coincident to lagging ratio, which also tends to lead business cycle peaks, reached a high of 110.3 last March and has declined to 109.3 in November. A decrease in the ratio means a sharper increase in the Lagging Index, which measures the cost of doing business, relative to the Coincident Index. A further, more dramatic weakening of the Leading Index in the next few months, together with a continued decline in the coincident to lagging ratio, would confirm the danger of a downturn.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

54910. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2000

Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index held steady in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing down to a more moderate pace. A cooling off in the economy from its faster pace earlier this year and last year is reflected in the nine straight months that the Leading Index has been either flat or declining. This was confirmed by the Coincident Index which registered a decline this month after 13 months of continuous gains. The leveling off of the leading and coincident indexes results from the sustained inverted yield curve and the tight labor market brought about by prolonged economic expansion.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

54911. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2000

Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.4 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity continues to grow although more moderately. Strong income gains, together with increases in employment and industrial production, continue to drive the Coincident Index higher. The flat performance of the leading index partly results from the sustained inverted yield curve, which has the potential of hindering strong economic growth in the near term.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

54912. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 2000

Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing to a more moderate pace during the second half of the year. The deceleration in the performance of the leading index appears to be showing up in the more modest growth of the coincident index. The perverse behavior of the leading indicators, particularly the sustained inverted yield curve, will nevertheless be a negative factor for the economy over the near term.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

54913. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2000

Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.1 percent in July. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to a slowing in the pace of economic activity for the second half of the year. The decline in the leading index over the past 6 months signifies a moderation in the momentum of the economy. After several months of strong gains, the unchanged level of the coincident index for the month of July is consistent with the deceleration in the performance of the leading index. No change in the coincident index, coupled with a decline in the lagging index, resulted in a rise in the coincident-to-lagging ratio. The decline in the leading index would be a stronger signal of an economic slowdown had it been matched by a decline in the ratio.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

54914. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 2000

Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.8 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The flat pace in the leading indicators in the recent months clearly points to moderating momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index, even as growth in the leading index slows. If sharp increases in the lagging index continue, cyclical imbalance could jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

54915. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2000

Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.2 percent in May. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components point to sustained expansion but not at the rapid pace we saw in the beginning of the year: The modest pace in the leading index in the recent months clearly indicates some loss of momentum in the pace of economic activity. Gains in the employment, income, and industrial production continue to drive the coincident index. Future interest-rate increases remain to be the most significant threat to the current economic expansion.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

54916. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2000

Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.5 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.6 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components continue to show a strong economy: The indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though at a slower pace than that of the last six months. The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion remains the interest-rate increases at hand, and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve action. The most immediate risk would be a sustained inverted yield curve.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

54917. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2000

Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index held steady in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through March. Coupled with no change in the lagging index, the coincident-to-lagging ratio shows that last months decline was merely a one-month aberration. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though not at the pace of the last six months. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in March, but should be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

54918. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2000

Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.8 percent in February. Taken together, the long-term outlook remains positive: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the second month of the year. With the release of February data, the expansion that began in the early 1990's is now the longest expansion in U.S. history. Despite a decline in the leading indicators, continued economic growth is expected. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability, as measured by the lagging index, must be monitored for future increases.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

54919. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2000

Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the first month of the year. With the release of January data, the economy has tied the expansion of the 1960's as the longest expansion in U.S. history. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in January.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

54920. Re-Armament in Sierra Leone: One Year After the Lomé Peace Agreement

Author:
Eric Berman
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
On 7 July 1999, the government of Sierra Leone and the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) signed the Lomé Peace Agreement in an effort to end over eight years of civil war between the government and the RUF. This confl ict resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of more than 2 million people – well over one-third of the total population – many of whom are now refugees in neighbouring countries. A central component of this agreement called for the RUF to disarm. But this did not happen. Instead, a year later, the RUF leader, Foday Sankoh, was in the custody of the Sierra Leonean government and the future of the peace accord was in grave doubt.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and War
Political Geography:
Africa

54921. ASEM 3: More Talk or Move Forward?

Author:
Yeo Lay Hwee
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Third ASEM Summit (ASEM 3) was held in Seoul on 20-21 October 2000. Openly, those who participated in the meeting, and several of the Asian newspapers, particularly the Korean papers, were happy to hail the meeting as a "success". What does it mean? With the presence of all heavy-weight European and Asian leaders - Tony Blair, Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schroeder, Zhu Rongji, Yoshiro Mori, Abdurrahman Wahid, and the adoption of three Documents - The Chairman's Statement; Seoul Declaration for Peace on the Korean Peninsula; and the Asia-Europe Cooperation Framework 2000, it is possibly the best outcome one could hope for under the cloud of rumours of forum-fatigue, acrimonious debates about human rights, increasing divergences and complaints on the slow progress of some key initiatives such as the Trade Facilitation Action Plan (TFAP) during the preparatory process. That the meeting was held smoothly under tight security without any major disruptions from anti-globalisation protestors was another triumph for the Korean government, especially in the wake of a series of street protests and demonstrations that targeted and disrupted several international meetings since the Seattle fiasco in November last year.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

54922. The fall of Milosevic and the Kosovo problem

Author:
Kenneth Schmidt Hansen
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Despite all precautions taking by Slobodan Milosevic the Presidential elections held in Yugoslavia 24 September 2000 turned out to be his Waterloo. It is an outspread belief that the political regime in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that Slobodan Milosevic represented was one of the last obstacles to bringing peace and stability to the Balkans. Despite this outspread belief, it is in this paper argued that the problems in Kosovo are not just the product of the policy pursued by Milosevic which implies that they not necessarily will be easier solved in the years to come even though a democratic revolution has taken place in Yugoslavia. No solution to the Kosovo problem seems available that will satisfy both the Serbs and the Kosovo-Albanians. But perhaps most interesting, it seems reasonable to argue that even maintaining status quo, i.e. not deciding for the final status of Kosovo, might turn out to be a problem for the current democratic developments in Belgrade.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Albania

54923. Back in the U.S.S.R.? Russia as an Actor in World Politics

Author:
Mette Skak
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The gap between the structural reality surrounding Russia and the cognitive level of Russian foreign policy making is highlighted. The literature on Russian foreign policy is reviewed, distinguishing between 'optimists' and 'pessimists'. The analysis differentiates between 'milieu goals' and 'possession goals' and traces the pursuit of these goals in Czarist Russian, Soviet and postcommunist Russian foreign policy. The conclusion is that possession goals – hard-core realism, as it were – remain the dominant feature of Russian foreign policy (as in the Soviet era). This challenges the theory of democratic peace. This finding is then subjected to a policy-oriented criticism of Russian foreign policy. Three examples of dysfunctional Russian foreign policy are addressed: the misguided pursuit of multipolarity, myth and reality about regional priorities, and Russian self-destructive partisanship in ex-Yugoslavia. The final section raises the eternal Russian questions of Kto vinovat? and Shto delat'?On the causal factors behind the observed traits of irrationality, the analysis emphasises the volatile, 'praetorian' decision-making environment. Concerning policy implications, the dialogue with Russia must address features of realism, for instance by marketing the virtue of internal balancing, and as for concessions, formally dismiss foreign policy doctrines of spheres-of-influence like the Monroe doctrine as anachronistic in an era of globalization.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia

54924. The Emergence of the New Nordic Co-operation

Author:
Tom Schumacher
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Nordic Co-operation is an outstanding example of how radically many international institutions changed their functions, working structures and not at least their motives of existence since 1989. It is significant that this regional institution is now aiming to influence developments in third countries and consequently plays its own role in the reconstruction of Europe after the end of the Cold War. This article investigates the motives behind this transformation. After reviewing theoretical and empirical research on institutional adaptation done by other scholars of International Relations, the dimensions of change in Nordic Co-operation will be shown by contrasting its motives, institutions and tasks in the decades before and after 1989. One interesting and quite relevant factor seems to be a certain dynamic of development which is a result of reciprocal interaction with other international institutions in Northern Europe. This aspect will be a special focus of this paper.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, and Cold War
Political Geography:
Europe

54925. "War is Never Civilised";: Civilisation, Civil Society and the Kosovo War

Author:
Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
'War is never civilised', Prime Minister Tony Blair declared on 10 June 1999 as the Serb government yielded to NATO's bombing campaign, 'but war can be necessary to uphold civilisation' he went on (Blair, 1999a). Thus 79 days of war were brought to an end by the assertion that war had secured for the future the principles on which the post-Cold War European order was founded. For that reason the Kosovo war provides an opportunity to study what the West believed to be the foundation of the new European order. It is important to use this opportunity because the reflexive confusion which followed the end of the Cold War has finally settled in a new order. To understand how the West constructs this order is a major concern for anyone how wants a glimpse of what the twenty-first century has to offer international relations.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, and War
Political Geography:
Europe

54926. European State Formation 1900-2000

Author:
Birthe Hansen
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper focuses on twentieth century European state formation. The purpose is to present a survey of these, to point at significant patterns, and to offer an explanation of why the states were formed.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

54927. The NATO of the Future: Intervention and Integration in Europe

Author:
Bertel Heurlin
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
There is good reason to take a closer look at NATO. The former Cold War alliance has dominated the international arena for a considerable amount of time. Should NATO have been dissolved long ago? What are the reasons for NATO's revival? Not only is NATO expanding, it has also recently conducted a war in the very heart of Europe. What can this renaissance and hectic NATO-activity lead to? Many politicians, commentators and observers discern the development of a new cold war, not least because of the lack of Russian support for, and understanding of, NATO's bombings in the Balkans. In May 1999, a prominent Russian security expert alleged that “if NATO commits a mistake such as the bombings in Yugoslavia, there would be a risk of Russian retaliation with nuclear weapons.2 Others, on the other hand, predict a collapse of the organisation as a whole because of internal disputes among the member states due to the extremely complex situation in the Balkans.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

54928. Integration Policy: Between Foreign Policy and Diffusion

Author:
Morten Kelstrup
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This working paper is a discussion of the concept of “integration policy” and its application, in particular to the study of policies of individual states towards European integration. The paper takes its point of departure in traditional studies of foreign policy. It illustrates different approaches to the study of foreign policy. It claims that when we are dealing with policy towards integration, for instance European integration, focus has to be redirected from the study of foreign policy to what we might call integration policy. Different dimensions of integration policy are specified. European integration is interpreted at being somewhere between intergovernmental cooperation and supranational decision making. It is shown how integration policy, as integration become more intense, will develop into a proliferated and multidimensional set of policies and possibly develop further into “diffusion”. The overall contribution of the paper is to conceptualise a new, grey area and to contribute to the study of different kinds of integration policy.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

54930. The Public Life of the Arts in America

Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Art and entertainment constitute America's second-largest export. Most Americans--96 percent, to be exact--are somehow involved in the arts, whether as audience participants, hobbyists, or via broadcast, recording, video, or the Internet. The contribution of the arts to the U.S. economy is stunning: the nonprofit arts industry alone contributes over 857 billion dollars per year, and American artists enjoy world-class status. Despite its size, quality, and economic impact, the arts community is not articulate about how to serve the public interest, and few citizens have an appreciation of the many public policies that influence American arts and culture. The contributors to this volume argue that support for the arts and culture is good economic and trade policy and contributes to the quality of life and community, while it sustains the creativity of American artists and organizations.

54931. Reweaving the Social Tapestry: Public Policies for American Families

Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The American Assembly on "Reweaving the Social Tapestry: Public Policies for American Families" convened on September 21-24, 2000 in Kansas City, Missouri. Participants concluded that families can play a vital role in bringing America to greater unity. Yet even the definition of "family" can be a source of great division. The group's recommendations encouraged business and government initiatives designed to support this core societal structure.

54932. Syria and Weapons of Mass Destruction

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The Middle East is the scene of an ongoing process of proliferation. Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Libya, and Syria all have significant capabilities to deliver weapons of mass destruction Israel, and Syria has made considerable progress in acquiring weapons of mass destruction since the mid-1970s. Syria has never shown a serious interest in nuclear weapons, although it did seek to buy two small research reactors from the PRC in 1992, including a 24-megawatt reactor, and purchased a small 30-kilowatt research reactor from the PRC in 1991. It allowed inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency for the first time in February 1992. Syria does, however, deploy sheltered missiles, armed with chemical warheads, as a means of both countering Israel's nuclear forces and maintaining its rivalry with Iraq. As the attached article Syrian Defense Minister Gen. Mustafa Tlas shows, Syria has a major interest in biological warfare, and the fact his article first appeared in public in an Iranian journal may not entirely be a coincidence.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Syria, and Egypt

54933. Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
There is a wide spectrum of potential threats to the American homeland that do not involve the threat of overt attacks by states using long-range missiles or conventional military forces. Such threats include covert attacks by state actors, state use of proxies, independent terrorist and extremist attacks by foreign groups or individuals, and independent terrorist and extremist attacks by residents of the US. These threats are currently limited in scope and frequency. No pattern of actual attacks on US territory has yet emerged that provides a clear basis for predicting how serious any given form of attack will be in the future, what means of attack will be used, or how lethal new forms of attack will be if they are successful.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and America

54934. Managing the Global Nuclear Materials Threat: Policy Recommendations

Author:
Sam Nunn and Robert E. Ebel
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Despite the end of the Cold War, nuclear weapons continue to pose the most devastating security threat to Americans. Although the risk of a nuclear war destroying civilization has virtually disappeared, the risk that a single nuclear weapon might be used to destroy a major city has increased, particularly given the erosion of control over nuclear material with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nothing could be more central to international security than ensuring that the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons do not fall into the hands of terrorists or proliferant states. Effective controls over nuclear warheads and the nuclear materials needed to make them are essential to the future of the entire global effort to reduce nuclear arms and stem their spread. At the same time, ensuring protection of public health and the environment in the management of all nuclear materials—from nuclear weapons to nuclear wastes—remains a critical priority. Appropriate management of both safety and security worldwide will be essential to maintaining nuclear fission as an expandable option for supplying the world's greenhouse-constrained energy needs in the twenty-first century.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Soviet Union

54935. The Strategic Implications of Terrorism

Author:
Paul Wilkinson
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:
Terrorism is a special form of political violence. It is not a philosophy or a political movement. Terrorism is a weapon or method which has been used throughout history by both states and sub-state organisations for a whole variety of political causes or purposes.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Politics, and Terrorism

54936. El TLCAN y la Inversióon Extranjera Directa: El Nuevo Escenario

Author:
Arturo Borja
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This working paper looks at the changes that have taken place in North America in foreign direct investment (FDI) after NAFTA. The first part analyses the regime defined in the treaty. The main four principles of this regime are: "national treatment", the prohibition of performance requirements for investors, a more liberal norm for foreign ownership of firms, institutional procedures for the solution of disputes. The rule of origin is identified as the most important measure for non-North American investors. The second part offers an empirical evaluation of changes in FDI flows during the first five years of NAFTA. It compares that period with the five years previous to the implementation of the agreement. The findings show a significant increase in FDI going to Mexico, Canada and the United States. At the same time, there have been changes in the distribution of these flows within the region. More FDI is going now to the United States than to Mexico, and investments between Canada and the U.S. are growing at a higher rate than those between Mexico and the U.S. The paper also identifies different patterns between Mexico and Canada. The increases in Canadian investments suggests that Canadian multinationals are adapting their strategies to the new conditions created by NAFTA.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

54937. Coexistence, Consensus, Competition, Conflict: Interservice Contestation

Author:
Varun Sahni
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This paper explores one of the lesser-researched aspects of Latin American military politics, namely, relations among the three military services - army, navy and air force. This is done through a study of the Argentine Navy and its relations with the Army and Air Force of that country. The analysis proceeds in three stages. First, the article classifies issue-areas on the basis of four variables: resource and/or prestige implications, symbolic and/or functional importance, zero-sum contestation, and iterative contestations. Second, the article suggests a four-fold typology of inter-service contestation - coexistence, consensus, competition, and conflict - that is closely linked to the nature of the issue-area. Finally, the validity of the typology is tested through the study of four cases: naval management of the National Atomic Energy Commission (CNEA); naval domination of national policy on Patagonia, Tierra del Fuego, the South Atlantic and Beagle Channel islands and Antarctica; the annual inter-service competition over the military budget; and the long-standing rivalry between the Nave and Air Force over military aviation. The four cases studied demonstrate that the taxonomy proposed in this article more than adequately classifies and explains the patterns of inter-service contestation in Argentina, thereby raising questions about its applicability to other military-dominated polities.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

54938. Pruebas Nucleares en el Sur de Asia: Las Razones y las Repercusiones

Author:
Varun Sahni
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
On May 11, 1998, India conducted three underground nuclear tests, followed by two more 48 hours later. Two weeks later, Pakistan responded with six nuclear tests of its own. The purpose of this document is to analyze the reasons behind the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests as well as their innumerable implications. To facilitate analysis, the study is divided into two parts. In the first, the reasons that propelled the governments of India and Pakistan to a posture of overt nuclearization are analyzed. In both cases, the nuclear tests were the result of diverse factors, ranging from security concerns to domestic political calculations to considerations of international prestige. In the second part of the document the impact of the Indian and Pakistani actions are analyzed on four well-defined levels: internal, bilateral, regional and global.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Middle East, and India

54939. Three and a Half Centuries of the Westphalian State System

Author:
Varun Sahni
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This short paper studies how the international system has evolved over the last 350 years through an identification of its most important features. The paper has a pedagogic rather than research orientation, and is divided into three sections. The first section analyzes the most significant features of international relations from the Peace of Westphalia (1648) to the Second World War. It demonstrates how, over the centuries, the evolution of alliances and the rise of a peace norm transformed a war system into a peace system, thereby mitigating the basic systemic condition of anarchy on the salient structural characteristics of the sovereign state system. The second section studies international relations during the Cold War, with the focus on the strategic, economic, ideological and cultural factors that defined the international system during that period. The third section of the paper analyzes international relations since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The various developments and trends that are leading to systemic change are examined. Despite the sundry challenges posed to the state by non-state actors, the rise of new issue-areas and sub-systemic supranational integration, the sovereign state and the Westphalian system is expected to endure.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Development, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Berlin and Westphalia

54940. Drug Trafficking in US-Mexican Relations: The Politics of Simulation

Author:
Jorge Chabat
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This document presents the hypothesis that the Mexican and U.S. governments are trapped in their current anti-drug strategy. This strategy causes high levels of violence and corruption in Mexican territory, and cannot be changed because it responds to pressures exerted by American public opinion on its own government. One of the consequences is that the U.S. government is compelled annually to certify the Mexican government's fight against drugs. This certification constrains an accurate evaluation of Mexico's combat against narcotrafficking, because it tends to underestimate failures and exaggerate accomplishments. Nevertheless, the possibility of change in the anti-drug strategy is limited, so this scenario is expected to endure for several years. In this sense on can also expect a better integration f Mexican and U.S. anti-drug policies in the near and medium term.
Topic:
International Relations, Crime, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, America, North America, and Mexico

54941. International Explanations for Stock Market Opening

Author:
Susan Minushkin
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Most studies on financial market liberalization focus on wealthy countries, emphasizing international, economic or domestic political factors as explanations for financial liberalization or have specified the conditions under which one factor dominates in causal significance. They have not tested whether their arguments are applicable to the middle-income countries that comprise the 'emerging markets.' Focusing on these countries, this paper seeks to isolate and test a series of propositions derived from international approaches. The main contribution of this article is to provide some first-cut testing of the existing hypotheses, as a guide for other researchers in terms of the timing, pace and style of financial opening in middle-income countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance

54942. A Theoretical and Statistical Assessment of the Structural Reform in Latin America

Author:
Jorge A. Schiavon
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This working paper argues that the institutional variation between Latin American countries is one of the central variables that explains the huge differences in the implementation, and level of consolidation of the structural reform process in Latin America during the 1980s and 1990s, an issue still unexplained in a satisfactory way in the existing literature. The argument is tested and supported using a statistical model that includes macroeconomic indicators in the explained side of the equation (structural reform), and constitutional, electoral, and party system data on the explanatory side (institutional configuration).
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Central America

54943. Brazil, India and South Africa: Three Pathways to Regional (In)security

Author:
Varun Sahni
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the regional security problems of Brazil, India and South Africa in the Southern Cone of South America, South Asia, and southern Africa, respectively. The three states are treated as emerging powers, i.e., middle powers that have the capability and intention to maneuver their way into great power status. a study of the regional distributions of military and socioeconomic capability suggest Brazilian regional primacy, Indian regional dominance and South African regional supremacy. Furthermore, while Brazil's neighbors ignore its regional status, India's neighbors contest it and South Africa's neighbors acknowledge it. In the first three sections of the paper, the three regional powers studied in their respective regions, with emphasis on the geographical boundaries, historical evolution, cultural characteristics and power dynamics of each region. A comparative analysis of the nuclear option chosen by each emerging power is presented in the section immediately following the three case studies. The final section situates the regional security of the emerging powers in the context of U.S. grand strategy and analyzes security cooperation between Brazil, India, South Africa and the U.S. It is concluded that in their quest to transcend their regional bounds and have a global impact, the regional security context is a critical factor for the emerging powers.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, India, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

54944. The Globalization of Property Rights: An Anglo and American Frontier Land Paradigm, 1700-1900

Author:
John Weaver
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:
Old-world ideas accompanied European migrants, and a few changed the globe. An English obsession with landed property was implanted in settlement colonies, so that, between the late 1600s and late 1800s, private initiatives and official planning on British colonial and American frontiers interacted to frame property rights to extensive regions. This paper dwells on that interaction and the tensions between private goals and state sovereignty. The state was essential for framing property rights when these were associated with land and in situ resources. In very recent times, property rights have fostered entirely new industries, for example in software and genetically modified biota. Property rights have changed traditional activities such as art and entertainment. Do new forms of property - "less constrained by physical location" - leave the state with a reduced role in the realm of property rights? Does the paradigm of evolving property rights seen in previous centuries suggest any parallels with struggles over more recent property rights? These are questions for members of the institute to consider. We will offer several concluding thoughts.
Topic:
Globalization, Government, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
America and Europe

54945. Identity, Empathy and International Relations

Author:
Rhoda E. Howard-Hassmann
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:
The insertion of identity politics into international relations undermines the capacity for cosmopolitan empathy, a capacity that might be useful in ameliorating some of the world's social problems. Empathy is the capacity to put oneself into another's shoes and recognize a stranger's humanity. The useful post-modern stress on the mutability of identity has hardened in identity politics into the creation of exclusive social categories of Oppressed and Oppressor. The social creation of such categories through such devices as the politics of amnesia paves the way for isolationist indifference. Yet data drawn both from the sociology of genocide and from the author's own research shows that humanitarian empathy across lines of identity is possible.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Imperialism

54946. Globalization as the End and the Beginning of History: The Contradictory Implications of a New Paradigm

Author:
Arif Dirlik
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:
This paper seeks to understand globalization as a new paradigm. It recognizes that there is much about the discourse of globalization that is ideological, that seeks to cover up the detrimental consequences of globalization for the majority of the world's population. It suggests nevertheless that there may be much to be gained from viewing it as a new paradigm, albeit a contradictory one, that has replaced an earlier paradigm of modernization. It makes an analytical distinction between globalization as historical process, which is at least as old as the history of capitalism, if not older, and globalization as a new way of looking at the world and its past, which is quite novel. To illustrate its argument, the paper contrasts present-day political and intellectual consequences of globalization with the late nineteenth-century, where several observers have identified a level of economic globalization greater than that of the present. It argues that whereas earlier globalization produced nationalism, colonialism and epistemological universalism, globalization presently is postcolonial, challenges the nation-state, and is marked by a break-down of universalism. It follows that globalization needs to be understood not just as global integration, as suggested by its ideologues and in economistic interpretations, but equally importantly as a new mode of fragmentation. An analytical distinction between globalization as process and paradigm is necessary to grasping globalization as a new mode of comprehending the world, but it is nevertheless necessary from a critical perspective to keep in mind the historical relationship between the two; globalization may be viewed as a new beginning in breaking down old hegemonies, but globalization may be viewed also as the ultimate victory of capitalist modernity. The contradictoriness may be perceived in the epistemologies of postmodernism and postcolonialism. The paper suggests that these epistemologies are best grasped as symptoms of globalization, that seek to break with modern and colonial ways of knowing, and yet are stamped by those very legacies. The discussion turns, by way of conclusion, to the relationship between globalization and history. While globalization is best understood historically, it also has produced new ways of looking at history. Three modes are selected here as products of globalization: world history writing, which is consciously motivated at the present by the idea of globalization, and seeks to understand the past in nonEurocentric ways, but may be understood also as a mode of containing the break-down of universalism; and two different perspectives on the "end of history" as we have known it. First, a EuroAmerican perspective that sees in the end of universalism(and the crowding of the past with incompatible and incommensurate cultural claims) also the end of history. Second, a conscious challenge to history as a modern way of knowing in the name of "alternatives to history." The paper concludes that these conflicts over history, too, point to the present as both an end, and a possible new beginning-but only as a possibility.
Topic:
Globalization, Political Theory, and History

54947. When Needs are Rights: An Overview of UN Efforts to Integrate Human Rights in Humanitarian Action

Author:
Karen Kenny
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
Integration of human rights throughout the United Nations system is, and always has been, a legal imperative flowing from the UN Charter. More recently, how- ever, it has also become stated policy of the organization and its component parts. The commitment to integration expressed by the Secretary-General in his reform program of July 1997 builds on the directions in the Vienna Declaration and Programme of Action, to which 171 states agreed in 1993.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Organization, and United Nations

54948. The Problems of Preparedness: Challenges Facing the U.S. Domestic Preparedness Program

Author:
Richard A. Falkenrath
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The U.S. government is now actively engaged in preparing the nation for highly destructive acts of terrorism, especially those involving chemical and biological weapons. This effort involves multiple federal agencies and a wide variety of programs. Collectively known as the “U.S. domestic preparedness program,” these programs are a very recent innovation in American governance. The budget of federal weapons of mass destruction (WMD) preparedness programs has grown from effectively zero in 1995 to approximately $1.5 billion in fiscal year 2000. 1 This made the U.S. domestic preparedness program one of the fastest growing federal programs of the late 1990s.
Topic:
Environment and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

54949. Analytic Models and Policy Prescription: Understanding Recent Innovation in U.S. Counterterrorism

Author:
Richard A. Falkenrath
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The threat of terrorism has received enormous attention in the last decade. Anxieties ran particularly high at the turn of the millennium, which fortunately passed without a major terrorist incident. Virtually all states expend some resources to combat terrorism. The policies, programs, and operations that governments undertake to meet this challenge are known collectively as counterterrorism. Although this term is only a few decades old, the practice of counterterrorism is as old as terrorism itself. Like terrorism, counterterrorism is easily recognized, even if its boundaries are somewhat imprecise.
Topic:
Environment and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

54950. Responding to the Threat of Agroterrorism: Specific Recommendations for the United States Department of Agriculture

Author:
Anne Kohnen
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The threat of biological weapons (BW) is usually associated with terrible outbreaks of human illness. Receiving substantially less attention from the media, however, is the fact that BW can also be used against agricultural targets as strategic economic weapons. Agriculture accounts for about 13 percent of the United States' annual gross domestic product. 1996 U.S. cash receipts for livestock, poultry, and crops totaled more than $200 billion. An attack on agriculture could have enormous economic consequences.
Topic:
Environment and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

54951. Moving Beyond Kyoto

Author:
Warwick J. McKibbin
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In November 2000, just after the presidential elections in the United States, negotiators will meet in The Hague at the sixth meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP6) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). By then, it will have been almost three years since the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol on global climate change at COP3, which was held in Kyoto in December 1997. Intense negotiations over the intervening period have focused on how to implement the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol has been signed by 84 countries but not ratified by any of the key countries, and ratification does not appear to be imminent, especially in the United States, where the Senate has registered its strong opposition.
Topic:
Environment and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States

54952. Permanent Normal Trade Relations for China

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In what has been described as its most important vote this year, the U.S. Congress will soon decide whether to provide permanent normal trade relations to China. A vote is required because, after 14 years of negotiations, China is poised to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO). Assuming China concludes its bilateral negotiations with the European Union by June or July, entry is likely before the end of the year. The cornerstone principle of the World Trade Organization is that members provide each other unconditional Most Favored Nation trade status, now called Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) in U.S. trade law. Current U.S. law precludes granting PNTR to China; as a result President Clinton has asked Congress to amend the law. A negative vote would have no bearing on China's entry into the World Trade Organization, but it would mean that U.S. companies would not benefit from the most important commitments China has made to become a member. Gaining the full range of benefits is particularly important in light of the large and growing deficit the United States faces in its trade with China (Figure 1). A positive vote would give U.S. companies the same advantages that would accrue to companies from Europe, Japan, and all other WTO member states when China enters the World Trade Organization. It would also provide an important boost to China's leadership, that is taking significant economic and political risks in order to meet the demands of the international community for substantial additional economic reforms as a condition for its WTO membership. A positive vote would strengthen bilateral economic relations more generally. That may help place a floor on the broader bilateral relationship, which continues to face critical challenges on security issues, stemming largely from tensions between China and Taiwan, and on human rights issues.
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Asia

54953. Human Capital and the Quality of Growth

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
T. W. SCHULTZ was ahead of his time, at least among economists. The earliest postwar models of development emphasized accumulation of physical capital, and saw spending on health and education as a drain on the accumulation of "productive" assets. But eventually, the newer classical growth models incorporated formally Schultz's insight, and related work on accounting for growth by Hollis Chenery and colleagues at the World Bank pointed to the contribution of more skilled workers with more human capital to increased productivity and growth. The more recent endogenous growth models are even more emphatic. Sustainable growth in these models is the result in part of positive externalities generated by education, an important form of human capital. In these models, the new ideas and new technologies that are critical to high sustained growth rely fundamentally on high levels of human capital.
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
India

54954. Intervention in Internal Conflicts: Legal and Political Conundrums

Author:
Chantal de Jonge Oudaraat
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THE KOSOVO CRISIS in 1999 and the Sierra Leone hostage debacle in 2000 have reignited a recurring debate in international policy circles over humanitarian intervention. This debate focuses on the legal, political, and operational conundrums of coercive actions for humanitarian purposes. I believe that this debate over intervention will only intensify in the future. Indeed, internal conflicts, even if their numbers go down, are hard to ignore in a globalizing world.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States

54955. Privatization and the Distribution of Assets in Brazil

Author:
Roberto Macedo
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This paper focuses on the Brazilian privatization program undertaken in the 1990s, one of the largest in the world, as a result of which over US$71 billion worth of equity capital and US$17 billion of debt owed by the former state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were transferred to private owners, both at the federal and state levels.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Latin America

54956. The Next Wave: Urgently Needed New Steps to Control Warheads and Fissile Material

Author:
Matthew Bunn
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Nothing could be more central to U.S. and world security than ensuring that nuclear warheads and their essential ingredients—plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU)—do not fall into the hands of terrorists or proliferating states. If plutonium and HEU become regularly available on a nuclear black market, nothing else we do to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons will succeed. Similarly, unless stockpiles of nuclear warheads and fissile materials can be secured, monitored, and verifiably reduced, it will be impossible to achieve deep, transparent, and irreversible reductions in nuclear arms. Measures to control warheads and fissile materials, therefore, are central to the entire global effort to reduce nuclear arms and stem their spread. The tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and hundreds of tons of plutonium and HEU that remain in the U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles represent a deadly legacy of the Cold War, and managing them securely must be a top U.S. security policy priority.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

54957. Natural Resources, Human Capital, and Growth

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Thomas Pinckney, and Richard Sabot
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In this paper, we present evidence that among developing countries, those that are resource-abundant invest less in education. We then discuss the economic processes behind this evidence. We describe a virtuous circle in which rising private returns to human capital and other assets lead to increased work effort and higher rates of private investment immediately, including among the poor, and generate higher productivity and lower inequality in the future. With resource abundance, however, governments are tempted to move away from the policies that generate this virtuous circle. Dutch Disease and related effects tend to lower the rate of return to the agricultural and human capital investments available to the poor. Resource rents accumulate in the hands of the government, and/or a small number of businessmen, further reducing incentives to invest. Staple-trap effects lead to the subsidization of capital, thereby taxing labor. The labor market in the resulting capital-intensive economy offers little benefit for moderate levels of education. The government may try to assuage the poor by directing some proportion of resource rents to populist programs that create new fiscal burdens but that do not enhance productivity. In short, resource abundance tends to break the virtuous circle linking education, growth and inequality in several places: the choice of development strategy, the level of inequality, the lack of incentives for investment in education, and the creation of a welfare state. We illustrate this breakdown by contrasting the cases of Korea and Brazil, and, since resource abundance need not be destiny, we conclude with policy lessons for resource-abundant developing economies.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, Government, Political Economy, and Third World
Political Geography:
Brazil and Korea

54958. Democracy Assistance and NGO Strategies in Post-Communist Societies

Author:
Sarah E. Mendelson and John K. Glenn
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, Eastern Europe and Eurasia have been host to a virtual army of Western non-governmental organizations (NGOs)-from the United States, Britain, Germany, and elsewhere in Europe-all working on various aspects of institutional development, such as helping to establish competitive political parties and elections, independent media, and civic advocacy groups, as well as trying to reduce ethnic conflict. Little is known-although much good and bad is believed-about the impact of this assistance, carried out on a transnational level in cooperation with local political and social activists. This study, based at Columbia University, was designed to address this gap.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, International Organization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

54959. Naturalization in the Wake of Anti-Immigrant Legislation: Dominicans in New York City

Author:
Audrey Singer and Greta Gilbertson
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The motives of immigrants who seek to naturalize in the United States are a source of current controversy. Recent events, such as the passage in 1996 of anti-immigrant laws, appear to have increased the benefits of becoming a U.S. citizen and the costs of remaining a legal permanent resident. Critics of recent policies have argued that the laws pushed immigrants to naturalize in order to retain social welfare benefits, thus cheapening the value of U.S. citizenship. Most of the debate on this issue, however, is based on rhetoric rather than observation. The extant literature provides little insight into how these recent developments influence immigrants' propensity to naturalize through shaping their perceptions of citizenship. How immigrants understand and view the costs and benefits of U.S. citizenship are important, because they are likely to be the most proximate determinants of naturalization decisions (Alvarez 1987; Yang 1994).
Topic:
Government and Migration
Political Geography:
United States and New York

54960. The Third Force: The Rise of Transnational Civil Society

Author:
P.J. Simmons and Ann M. Florini
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
IN LATE 1999, tens of thousands of people filled the streets of Seattle in one of the most visible manifestations of civil society in recent decades. They had gathered to show their opposition to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the broader forces of economic integration that it represents. The WTO, which was meeting to set an agenda for a proposed new round of global trade negotiations, found it- self under scrutiny as never before. For several days, television news shows around the world displayed protesters being gassed and arrested by the hundreds. Although media reports portrayed the protesters as a combination of American labor unionists who wanted to protect their jobs at the expense of Third World workers and hippies left over from the 1960s, in fact the protesters represented a broad and to some degree transnational coalition of concerns. They objected not only to the WTO's ability to override domestic environmental legislation but also to the very nature of the processes by which governments and corporations are fostering economic integration.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Human Welfare, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
America

54961. The Great Game, Round 2: Washington's Misguided Support for the Baku-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline

Author:
Stanley Kober
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
One of the top foreign policy priorities of the Clinton administration during the last few years has been strong support for building a pipeline to transport oil from Baku, Azerbaijan, to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The administration has argued that this pipeline, bypassing other routes going through Russia and Iran, would be the best way for the economically struggling countries of Central Asia to get their energy exports to market, thereby underpinning their newly won independence. Washington also stresses the supposed benefit of having the pipeline run through the territory of a NATO ally, Turkey.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Baku

54962. Constitutional Problems with Enforcing the Biological Weapons Convention

Author:
Ronald D. Rotunda
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The 1972 Biological Toxins and Weapons Convention—often called the Biological Weapons Convention, or BWC—requires the signatories to renounce the development, employment, transfer, acquisition, production, and possession of all biological weapons listed in the convention.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Law, and Terrorism

54963. From the Sea: National Missile Defense Is Neither Cheap Nor Easy

Author:
Charles V. Peña
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Sea-based missile defense is being advocated as an alternative to the Clinton administration's limited land-based national missile defense (NMD), which is in the early stages of testing. Proponents of sea-based NMD (which is only a concept, not a program) argue that such a system can be deployed more quickly and will be less expensive than the Clinton administration's land-based system. Some argue that the Navy Theater Wide (NTW) system—which is being designed to provide midcourse intercept capability against slower, shorter-range theater ballistic missiles—can be upgraded to attack longrange intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in their boost phase (when under powered flight at the beginning of their trajectories). Interestingly enough, advocates of sea-based NMD include not only traditional supporters of missile defense but also people who were previously opposed to missile defense.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Politics, and Terrorism

54964. Korean Détente: A Threat to Washington's Anachronistic Military Presence?

Author:
Doug Bandow
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The recent summit meeting between South Korean president Kim Dae Jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il raises the prospect that the Cold War on the Korean Peninsula may at last be coming to an end. Although the latest effort at détente could ultimately abort as did similar initiatives in the 1970s and early 1990s, North Korea's dire economic straits probably leave the Stalinist state little choice this time but to open itself to the outside world and seek trade and investment from its prosperous, democratic South Korean rival.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Israel, Asia, South Korea, Latin America, and Korean Peninsula

54965. Arrogance of Power Reborn: The Imperial Presidency and Foreign Policy in the Clinton Years

Author:
Gene Healy
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In his classic 1973 book The Imperial Presidency, historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr. warned that the American political system was threatened by “a conception of presidential power so spacious and peremptory as to imply a radical transformation of the traditional polity.” America's rise to global dominance and Cold War leadership, Schlesinger explained, had dangerously concentrated power in the presidency, transforming the Framers' energetic but constitutionally constrained chief executive into a sort of elected emperor with virtually unchecked authority in the international arena.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and America

54966. Reclaiming Our Schools: Increasing Parental Control of Education through the Universal Education Credit

Author:
Darcy Ann Olsen and Matthew J. Brouillette
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Demand for alternatives to state-run schools has swelled over the past decade, as witnessed by rising poll numbers favoring increased choice and by the creation of new charter schools, voucher programs, education tax credits, homeschools, and private scholarship funds. Despite mounting demand, however, such alternatives reach relatively few students. Charters and vouchers, for instance, serve only 2 percent of school children nationwide.
Topic:
Education
Political Geography:
United States

54967. Are We Prepared for Terrorism Using Weapons of Mass Destruction? Government's Half Measures

Author:
Eric R. Taylor
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In 1996 the U.S. Congress passed and the president signed the Nunn-Lugar-Domenici Act on domestic preparedness for terrorism using weapons of mass destruction. That law directs various departments and agencies of the federal government to make available to state and local governments training and equipment to respond to acts of terrorism involving the use of radiological, biological, and chemical weapons. The program—costing tens of billions of dollars per year—seeks to train local law enforcement, fire, medical, and other emergency response personnel to deal with such an attack against the American public.
Topic:
Security, National Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

54968. "Edupreneurs": A Survey of For-Profit Education

Author:
Carrie Lips
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Education companies, or “edupreneurs,” are entering the education marketplace in droves with creative, cost efficient products and services for students of all ages. This rapidly expanding industry, which constitutes approximately 10 percent of the $740 billion education market, demonstrates that private enterprises, even when competing against a monopolistic system, can deliver a wide range of affordable high-quality educational services. This study provides a glimpse of the products, services, and innovations that a fully competitive marketplace could generate if the government's stranglehold on education were loosened.
Topic:
Education
Political Geography:
United States

54969. Microsoft's Appealing Case

Author:
Alan Reynolds and Robert A. Levy
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson's final judgment in the Microsoft case indicates that he has fallen hook, line, and sinker for the government's flawed arguments. But the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit is unlikely to be so accommodating. The Justice Department's case will crumble as a result of procedural errors, flawed fact-finding, wrongheaded legal conclusions, and Jackson's preposterous plan to break up the software company most directly responsible for America's high-tech revolution.
Topic:
Government, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and America

54970. A Foreign Policy Report Card on the Clinton-Gore Administration

Author:
Jonathan G. Clarke
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The foreign policy record of the Clinton-Gore administration deserves a less than stellar grade. At the end of the Cold War, there was an extraordinary opportunity to build a new relationship with a democratic Russia; restructure U.S. security policy in both Europe and East Asia to reduce America's burdens and risk exposure; and revisit intractable Cold War–era problems, such as the frosty relations with Cuba, Vietnam, and North Korea. The administration's performance must be judged within the context of such an unprecedented opportunity for constructive change.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, Asia, North Korea, and Vietnam

54971. India as a World Power: Changing Washington's Myopic Policy

Author:
Victor M. Gobarev
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
American interest in and concerns about India rose sharply after that country carried out underground nuclear tests in May 1998. Clinton administration officials belatedly acknowledged that developing a good working relationship with India should be one of America's top foreign policy priorities. President Clinton's visit to South Asia in March 2000 was an important symbolic step.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, America, South Asia, Washington, and India

54972. From the Sea: National Missile Defense Is Neither Cheap Nor Easy

Author:
Charles V. Peña
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Sea-based missile defense is being advocated as an alternative to the Clinton administration\'s limited land-based national missile defense (NMD), which is in the early stages of testing. Proponents of sea-based NMD (which is only a concept, not a program) argue that such a system can be deployed more quickly and will be less expensive than the Clinton administration\'s land-based system. Some argue that the Navy Theater Wide (NTW) system—which is being designed to provide midcourse intercept capability against slower, shorter-range theater ballistic missiles—can be upgraded to attack longrange intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in their boost phase (when under powered flight at the beginning of their trajectories). Interestingly enough, advocates of sea-based NMD include not only traditional supporters of missile defense but also people who were previously opposed to missile defense.
Topic:
Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States

54973. Constitutional Problems with Enforcing the Biological Weapons Convention

Author:
Ronald D. Rotunda
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The 1972 Biological Toxins and Weapons Convention—often called the Biological Weapons Convention, or BWC—requires the signatories to renounce the development, employment, transfer, acquisition, production, and possession of all biological weapons listed in the convention.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Government
Political Geography:
United States

54974. Arms Control and Missile Defense: Not Mutually Exclusive

Author:
Charles V. Peña
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Traditionally, strategic offensive arms control and ballistic missile defense have been viewed as mutually exclusive. During the Cold War, the general belief was that anti–ballistic missile (ABM) systems would call into question the ability of the superpowers to successfully survive a first nuclear strike and inflict sufficient damage with a second strike. That is, missile defense could allow one superpower to launch a first strike and then use its defenses to intercept a second strike with the other superpower's surviving warheads—thereby undermining deterrence and stability. Furthermore, the thinking was that this situation would result in a dangerous offensive arms race as each side sought to counter the effects of the other's defenses.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

54975. Let's Make National Missile Defense Truly "National"

Author:
Ivan Eland
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Not all proposals for deploying a national missile defense live up to their name. Many are for “international” missile defense systems that would also defend U.S. allies and “friends,” even though they are wealthy enough to build their own missile defenses. For example, some policymakers and analysts on both the left and the right advocate sea-based missile defense as a substitute for the Clinton administration's limited land-based system, which is designed to protect only the territory of the United States. Conservatives would like to build a more comprehensive, layered defense consisting of sea- and space-based weapons or land-, sea-, and space-based weapons. George W. Bush, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, is clear that he wants a comprehensive defense to defend U.S. allies and seems to favor the latter approach.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States

54976. Dubious Anniversary: Kosovo One Year Later

Author:
Christopher Layne and Benjamin Schwarz
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
One year after NATO ended its bombing campaign against Yugoslavia, the Clinton administration's Kosovo policy is a conspicuous failure. Kosovo is now the scene of a brutal ethnic cleansing campaign carried out by NATO's erstwhile de facto ally, the Kosovo Liberation Army, an organization profoundly inimical to America's interests and professed values. The KLA is also currently fomenting an insurgency elsewhere in Serbia, which promises to destabilize the Balkans even further.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Genocide
Political Geography:
United States, America, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

54977. WTO Report Card III: Globalization and Developing Countries

Author:
Aaron Lukas
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The “anti-globalization coalition” that paraded through the streets of Seattle in November and stormed police barricades in Washington, D.C., in April contends that international trade and investment are “lose-lose” propositions. On the one hand, organized labor argues that low-wage workers in developing countries will gain employment at the expense of American workers. On the other hand, self-appointed advocates of the developing world claim that trade with and investment from Western countries lead only to exploitation and continued poverty abroad. Given that negative view of globalization, it is not surprising that anti-trade activists are calling to “shrink or sink” the World Trade Organization.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
Political Geography:
America and Washington

54978. China's Long March to a Market Economy

Author:
Mark A. Groombridge
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The U.S. Congress is in the historic position of being able to help pro-reform leaders in China move their country in a market-oriented direction. A vote to grant China permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status will bolster the position of those leaders in Beijing who are attempting to deepen and broaden the scope of China's two-decade experiment with economic reform. Granting PNTR and China's subsequent accession to the World Trade Organization will benefit, not only the United States and the world trading community, but most directly the citizens of China, millions of whom are still mired in abject poverty.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, and Asia

54979. Green Wars: Making Environmental Degradation a National Security Issue Puts Peace and Security at Risk

Author:
Paul Benjamin
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, a fundamental shift in national security policy has taken place in the United States. No longer restricting itself to such issues as military alliances, the strategic behavior of other great powers, and nuclear strike capabilities, security policy now tackles environmental degradation, poverty, infectious diseases, drug use, and other problems. Moreover, it increasingly posits them as threats to the national security of the United States.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States

54980. "Isolationism" as the Denial of Intervention: What Foreign Policy Is and Isn't

Author:
Earl C. Ravenal
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The tendency of both the Clinton administration and its Republican opponents to frame foreign policy as a compromise between “global policeman” and “isolationism” misses the point entirely. The real issue is what the United States commits itself to defend—and whether it is actually willing to incur the costs and risks required to fulfill such commitments. Structural changes in the international system already greatly limit the options of U.S. policymakers.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States

54981. The Greening of the World Bank: A Lesson in Bureaucratic Survival

Author:
James M. Sheehan
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The World Bank has a dismal environmental record that environmentalists have long condemned. Its lending policies have financed ecological destruction, human rights violations, and forced resettlement, and its projects have suffered from high failure rates, according to the bank's own criteria.
Topic:
Development, Environment, and International Organization

54982. The Coming Apathy: Africa Policy Under a Bush Administration

Author:
Salih Booker
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
"There's got to be priorities," George W. Bush responded when asked about Africa in the second presidential campaign debate. Africa did not make his short list: the Middle East, Europe, the Far East, and the Americas. A Bush presidency portends a return to the blatantly anti-African policies of the Reagan-Bush years, characterized by a general disregard for black people and a perception of Africa as a social welfare case. Vice President Dick Cheney is widely expected to steer the younger Bush on most policy matters especially foreign affairs. Cheney's perspective on Africa in the 1980s was epitomized by his 1986 vote in favor of keeping Nelson Mandela in prison and his consistent opposition to sanctions against apartheid South Africa.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and South Africa

54983. HIV/AIDS and Failed Development

Author:
Joe Collins and Bill Rau
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
HIV/AIDS continues to cut into the fabric of African households and societies. It is not uncommon to hear that a quarter to a third of the adult population in several african countries are HIV infected. Against this reality of a rapidly spreading epidemic, some two decades of prevention interventions have met with but limited success. Whatever successes there might be are not to be lightly dismissed. The reasons for those successes, however, are not well understood and thus not readily applicable elsewhere. To date, most prevention efforts have focused on increasing individual awareness about risks of transmission and promoting individual risk reduction through a variety of means.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa

54984. Turning Points in the Korean Space-Economy: From the Developmental State to Intercity Competition, 1953-2000

Author:
Mike Douglass
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Territorial development processes and patterns in Korea from the 1950s have encountered four turning points. The first involved the reconstitution of the Korean nation state, which, following radical land reform, implicitly focused on the expansion of the Seoul Capital Region. The second came with the launching of strategies for export-oriented urbanindustrial growth in the early 1960s, which led to the development, in the 1970s, of an urban-industrial corridor moving from the rapidly expanding metropolis of Seoul to the southeast coast, centered on Pusan and heavy industrial complexes. The third turning point was brought about by rising wages and labor costs; the ascending value of the Korean currency; and the overseas relocation of labor-intensive industries, which saw a repolarization of growth in Seoul and a deindustrialization of other metropolitan economies. While some regions outside of Seoul began to register high rates of economic growth around automotive and electronics industries in the early 1990s, this pattern was abruptly challenged at the fourth turning point, the 1997 financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia. Recovery from the crisis is being pursued under a fundamentally new political and economic strategy of decentralized policymaking. The major territorial development question facing Korea at this turning point is whether localities can create capacities to rebuild and sustain their economies through direct engagement in a turbulent world economy.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, Korea, and Southeast Asia

54985. Political Change in Taiwan: Implications for American Policy An address by RICHARD BUSH and Roundtable Discussion on Taiwan's Historic 2000 Elections

Author:
Katsuhiro Nakagawa
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Richard Bush is chairman of the board and managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), a private organization that conducts unofficial relations with the island of Taiwan on behalf of the United States government. Established in April 1979, AIT has a small headquarters in Washington, D.C., and offices in Taipei and Kaohsiung. Dr. Bush was appointed to the AIT Board by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on September 2, 1997, and was selected as chairman and managing director on the same day.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, America, Washington, and Asia

54986. Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta: "One Country, Two Systems" in the Emerging Metropolitan Context

Author:
Thomas P. Rohlen
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Now, more than at any point since 1949, Hong Kong's economic future is tied to that of China. This commonplace observation must be coupled with the less obvious, but equally fundamental point that Hong Kong's future with China is based largely on activities that arise in or pass through the Pearl River Delta. This region, however, is cut in half by a sovereign border and governed by a patchwork of political authorities. The Delta as a whole is rich with opportunities, but it is increasingly apparent that these can be realized only if integration moves forward, both in a metropolitan and regional sense. This prospect is currently marked by serious uncertainties.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Hong Kong

54987. The Japanese Network State in U.S. Comparison: Does Embeddedness Yield Resources and Influence?

Author:
Jeffrey Broadbent
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Scholars describe the East Asian—Japanese and South Korean—state as a network state that guides the private sector by means of embedded relationships (i.e., informal persuasive ties). In theoretical terms, these embedded ties represent informally institutionalized social capital. This study refines the network state thesis by comparing embedded ties with tangible resource exchanges in their effects upon political influence among political (organizational) actors in Japanese and U.S. labor politics. The network state thesis predicts that in Japan embedded ties should channel the flow of tangible resources (e.g., vital information, political support), and that embedded third party brokers should mediate this flow. Embedded ties have generally pervaded the Japanese polity, whereas in the United States, they have remained concentrated within the labor sector. In Japan, the embedded ties form a “bow tie” pattern: the Ministry of Labor (MOL) bridges a structural hole between corporatistic business and labor. The presence of embedded third parties predicts the dyadic exchange of information. Political support, by contrast, forms a distinct, nonembedded network, centered on political parties. Tensions between the embedded network and the instrumental political support network help explain characteristics of Japanese politics, such as the relative slowness of its response to financial crisis.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, and South Korea

54988. Opening Up to the World: India's Pharmaceutical Companies Prepare for 2005

Author:
Sean Eric Smith
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
In 2005, India will implement new intellectual property (IP) laws that recognize product patents on pharmaceuticals. Because India's 1970 Patent Act only recognizes process patents, Indian drug companies have been free to copy molecules from multinational companies (MNCs), to sell within India and other nonpatent conforming markets. New laws, such as the Exclusive Marketing Rights amendment to the 1970 Patent Act (ratified on April 19, 1999), will substantially alter this practice. This paper discusses what companies are doing to prepare for 2005 and beyond. As is the case today, Indian and MNCs alike will figure prominently in the future of the pharmaceutical sector, albeit in somewhat altered form. Although the new patent regime has the potential to reward MNCs at the expense of Indian firms, local companies will likely benefit from stricter laws. In fact, it is plausible that the 2005 laws will vault some Indian pharmaceutical companies into globally prominent positions.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and International Law
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

54989. Relating the U.S.-Korea and U.S.-Japan Alliances to Emerging Asia Pacific Multilateral Processes: An ASEAN Perspective

Author:
Chin Kin Wah and Pang Eng Fong
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
American military power underpinned the security structure of the Asia Pacific region during the Cold War. Post-Cold War, its role is still vital to peace and stability in the region. The most overt manifestations of American military might are the Japan–America Security Alliance (JASA) and the Korea–America Security Alliance (KASA). These bilateral alliances, together with a modified Australia–New Zealand–United States (ANZUS) treaty relationship, point to the diversity of security interests and perspectives in the region. Even during the height of the Cold War, the region never quite presented the kind of coherence that would have facilitated the creation of a truly multilateral defense framework of the sort exemplified by NATO. In Southeast Asia, the lack of strategic coherence resulted in a patchwork of defense arrangements between local and extraregional states. Dominated by the United States, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) was only nominally regional.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, America, Asia, Korea, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand

54990. The United States and the Republic of China, 1949-1978: Suspicious Allies

Author:
Steven M. Goldstein
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper discusses the relationship between the United States and the Republic of China (ROC) from 1949 to 1979. This was an association that began and ended with an American determination to distance itself from the government on Taiwan, in the interests of improved relations with the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. In the intervening years, the United States and the ROC were aligned in a relationship—formalized by a mutual defense treaty from 1955 to 1979—which weathered two (almost three) military confrontations with the PRC.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, and Asia

54991. The Domestic Context of the Alliances: The Politics of Tokyo

Author:
Akihiko Tanaka
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
It is now almost a cliché to say that domestic politics and foreign policy are closely connected. Yet however trite this expression, nonetheless it is true. Japan's international behavior and particularly its security policy cannot be fully understood without analyzing its domestic politics. In post–World War II Japan, security policy has been the dominant theme of domestic politics and source of ideological divide.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, and Tokyo

54992. Market, Technology, and Policy Drivers: The Future Structure of the Electricity Industry

Author:
Elizabeth Malone
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The electricity industry is being challenged on the one hand by restructuring and on the other by the potential of new technologies. Restructuring is proceeding slowly and unevenly, with uncertain national leadership, disputes over the jurisdiction of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), continuing and increasing environmental concerns, and a plethora of state policies and regulations.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54993. Changing Rules In the Market for Attention: New Strategies for Minority Programming

Author:
Richard P. Adler
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In July 1999, a controversy erupted that focused public attention on the issue of the representation of blacks and other minorities in the media. It began when Kweisi Mfume, president of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), expressed dismay that only one of the twenty-six new prime time television programs planned by the four major broadcast networks for the upcoming fall season included a black actor in a leading role. Shortly thereafter, representatives of several other minority groups, including Hispanics and Asians, claimed that their members were also underrepresented in network programming. The controversy generated a good deal of discussion about how television programs are developed and cast. Eventually, the NAACP and the four networks reached agreements that identified a variety of steps the networks would take to increase minority participation in network programming.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54994. Campaigns in Cyberspace: Toward A New Regulatory Approach

Author:
Anthony Corrado
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The explosive growth of the Internet as a medium for political activity is transforming our conceptions of political communication and the methods by which campaigns for public office are conducted. This rapidly evolving technology has already made possible an unprecedented flow of information and new modes of citizen participation in the electoral process. The Internet has provided candidates with a means of communicating directly with voters without the inter-mediation or interpretation of the news media. Candidates now use web sites to offer voters texts of public statements and detailed information on their policy positions, as well as audio and video materials. These sites allow individuals to “customize” information so that they may access materials that are relevant to their particular concerns or interests. Similarly, these sites allow candidates to provide individuals with updated information as it becomes available, facilitating a type of interaction between campaigns and individual voters that was not possible before the advent of digital communications.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54995. Coming Together -- Bridging the Gap between Investors and Minority Internet Entrepreneurs

Author:
Robert M. Entman
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
A group of about two dozen entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, researchers, and nonprofit community development leaders met on April 7-8, 2000, at the Aspen Institute Wye River Conference Center in Queenstown, Maryland, to discuss “Coming Together: Bridging the Gap between Investors and Minority Internet Entrepreneurs.” The group identified a series of problems that impede minorities' success in raising sufficient capital to launch and maintain entrepreneurial enterprises in the Internet market, and brainstormed creatively about resources, institutions, and processes to improve the situation.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Maryland

54996. Ecologies of Innovation: The Role of Information and Communications Technologies

Author:
David Bollier
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
It has become a truism in recent years that technological innovation lies at the core of a robust economy. Once an arcane matter for economists, innovation has moved from the back salons of corporate strategy to the grand ballroom of mainstream culture. Fueled by the World Wide Web and other electronic technologies, unknown entrepreneurs with big ideas have joined with investment bankers, multinational corporations, and Main Street investors on a relentless search for The New New Thing, as the title of Michael Lewis' book on Silicon Valley calls it.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54997. Six Degrees of Competition: Correlating Regulation With the Telecommunications Marketplace

Author:
Robert M. Entman
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The Fourteenth Annual Aspen Institute Conference on Telecommunications Policy explored the contentious issues of regulatory symmetry and asymmetry in the telecommunications industry. The core question was whether regulatory policy should be harmonized so that all similarly situated providers are treated the same way. Assuming that symmetrical treatment is desirable, exactly how should regulators approach the task?
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54998. Values For the Digital Age: The Legacy of Henry Luce

Author:
Gerald M. Levin
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
It's a great honor to be this year's Catto Fellow and to be part of such impressive company. I'm grateful to Henry and Jessica Catto, whose generosity and thoughtful commitment to public dialogue have made this event possible.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

54999. New World, New Realities: The Remaining Roles of Government in International Telecommunications

Author:
Rob Frieden
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
New World,New Realities Much has changed in the international telecommunications environment since 1995, when the Aspen Institute convened the first annual Aspen Institute Roundtable on International Telecommunications (AIRIT): The Internet has reached critical mass, with credible forecasts that data communications soon will predominate over voice services for the first time; Internet-mediated telephone service has begun to challenge the traditional toll revenue-sharing arrangements and pricing systems based on voice services; Regional and global market opening trade initiatives have become a reality; Strategic industrial alliances have grown in importance as carriers strive to exploit new market access opportunities; and Deregulation and market liberalization have become more widespread in developed and developing nations alike.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

55000. A Financial Architecture for Middle-Class-Oriented Development

Author:
Walter Russell Mead and Sherle R. Schwenninger
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Case For Middle-Class-Oriented Development International financial architecture works best when it serves social goals that command widespread support and legitimacy. Without neglecting the more conventional goal of allowing the greatest possible global flow of capital with the least risk of financial crisis, the primary goal of international financial reform, for both economic and political reasons, ought to be to promote middle-class-oriented development around the world.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States