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50071. Crime and Insurgency in the Tribal Areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Gretchen Peters
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Insurgent and terror groups operating in the tribal areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan are deepening their involvement in organized crime, an aspect of the conflict that at once presents enormous challenges and also potential opportunities for Coalition forces trying to implement a population‐centric counterinsurgency strategy. To gain a better understanding of these issues, Crime and Insurgency in the Tribal Areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan maps out how key insurgent groups engage in illicit activity in strategic areas, tracks how their involvement in this activity is evolving, and illustrates how insurgent and terror groups impose themselves on local communities as they spread to new territory. The report’s findings are presented through a series of short and anecdotal case studies drawn from field research, primary source documents and open-source reporting. It is hoped that this report will bring some clarity to an extremely complex phenomenon and prove useful to those developing policies and plans for the Afghanistan/Pakistan region.
Topic:
Crime, Terrorism, Taliban, and Haqqani Network
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and United Arab Emirates

50072. Self Inflicted Wounds: Debates and Divisions within al-Qa'ida and its Periphery

Author:
Anne Stenersen, Bernard Haykel, Brynjar Lia, Marc Lynch, Mohammed Hafez, Reuven Paz, Steven Brooke, and Vahid Brown
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Self‐Inflicted Wounds: Debates and Divisions within al‐Qa’ida and its Periphery examines the internal, or endogenous, reasons that have hastened the decline of the jihadi movement. In doing so, it exposes the jihadi movement, with al‐Qa’ida at its helm, as one that lacks coherence and unity, despite its claims to the contrary. The report divides the jihadis’ endogenous problems into two categories: internal divisions plaguing al‐Qa’ida and the jihadi movement proper; and fault lines dividing the jihadi movement from other Muslim and Islamist actors.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Al Qaeda, Ideology, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Palestine, Egypt, and Arabian Peninsula

50073. Deepening East Asian Economic Integration in Services

Author:
Phillippa Dee
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In services markets, there may be legitimate reasons to regulate. Integration efforts should target regulatory restrictions that explicitly limit competition, and those that are intended to meet legitimate objectives, but are clearly more burdensome than need to be. In health and maritime, ASEAN is already relatively liberal by international standards, although there is still scope to promote cross-border trade and ease costly cabotage restrictions. In telecommunications, the residual foreign equity limits are hard to understand, given that past reforms and current technologies have ensured that most markets are already relatively competitive. In finance, there is substantially more to do, despite progress made during the Asian financial crisis. And in air transport, despite commitments to open skies, there is a need to further align the content of bilateral air services agreements with regional integration objectives.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Services
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

50074. Comprehensive Asia Development Plan and Beyond -Growth Strategies for More Prosperous and Equitable East Asia

Author:
Takeshi Fujimoto, Shochiro Hara, and Fukunari Kimura
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Let's dream of our bright and prosperous future. In the year of 2020, sixteen East Asia Summit (EAS) member countries can reach doubled per capita income compared with their income level in 2008 with proper policy guidance; eight countries may join developed countries with per capita income exceeding US$10,000, five countries could enjoy the status of newly industrialized countries with per capita income between US$3,000 and US$10,000, and three countries would have per capita income above US$1,000. The Comprehensive Asia Development Plan (CADP) provides immediate policy guidance for industrialization through the development of logistics and other economic infrastructure. Beyond CADP, EAS member countries will face novel policy challenges that developing countries in the world have not broken through yet. This policy brief claims that establishing four virtuous cycles will be the key and we must have the courage to meet a number of policy challenges.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

50075. Azerbaijan’s Accession to World Trade Organization (WTO); Pros and Cons

Author:
Vugar Bayramov
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) together with Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) have published new policy paper titled as “Azerbaijan’s accession to the WTO: Assessing the macroeconomic consequences for the economy of Azerbaijan”. The paper analyzes the macroeconomic consequences for Azerbaijan’s economy in case the country joins the World Trade Organization (WTO ). Existing studies primarily draw on qualitative methods, while for this study a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the economy is calculated to simulate the consequences of WTO accession. The authors are able to generate numeric forecasts for macroeconomic variables as a measure for welfare and elaborate how WTO accession, interpreted as an external shock to the economy, would affect these variables. This study is, therefore, a unique contribution to the public and academic debate as it is the first study to quantitatively gauge the effects of accession beyond qualitative arguments. To contextualize the quantitative findings, several independent experts were interviewed to compile their opinions on WTO accession. The results of this study suggest positive welfare effects of WTO accession through increases in income, consumption and savings. However, the forecasts generated through our model reveal that exports would plummet as a consequence of accession. This must be of particular concern for the Azerbaijani economy with its oil and energy sector currently being the main driver of gross domestic product, foreign direct investment and exports. As a consequence, the Azerbaijani economy needs to diversify rapidly and decrease its dependence on oil to realize positive effects on general welfare that could be triggered through WTO accession. Whether these positive effects will materialize in the long run is hard to predict, although the qualitative evidence cited in this study suggests that accession would bring along important incentives for diversification.
Topic:
Economics, Oil, World Trade Organization, and Trade
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

50076. Fracture Lines: Will Canada's Water Be Protected in the Rush to Develop Gas?

Author:
Ben Parfitt
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto
Abstract:
On October 14, 2010, POWI released a discussion paper and held a conference on Fracture Lines: Will Canada’s Water Be Protected in the Rush to Develop Shale Gas? The conference and the discussion paper were the first major formal public discussion in Canada of the shale gas issue. As supplies of fossil fuel dwindle, oil and gas companies are increasingly looking to unconventional sources such as shale gas to supply energy needs. The Fracture Lines paper outlined the potential impacts of shale gas exploration and production on groundwater resources, and described the paucity of groundwater mapping and lack of effective regulatory oversight. With possible shale gas deposits in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick and a loud public outcry against shale gas drilling in Quebec, the conference attracted a wealth of attention. Because of its availability in both languages and its timeliness, the conference received extensive media coverage and over 500 logins to the webcast. In the wake of the conference, the research contained in the Fracture Lines report was determined to be a major factor in the decision to expand the terms of reference for a Parliamentary Committee studying offshore drilling issues in Canada. The Committee opted to include shale gas in its deliberations. The issue of how to protect groundwater resources from the impacts of shale gas exploration continues to be a burning issue, across Canada and around the world.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Oil, Water, and Gas
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

50077. After the Orange Era: Economic Prospects in Ukraine

Author:
Dmytro Boyarchuk, Kateryna Ruskykh, Olga Kravets, and Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
When Victor Yanukovich won Ukraine’s presidential election in February 2010, it marked the official end of the Orange Revolution. Soon after taking office, Yanukovich managed to form a loyal parliamentary coalition in a legally dubious way and, consequently, appointed his ally Mykola Azarov as Prime Minister. Indeed this decision may have made state governance more predictable and even provided for shortterm economic stability, but it may have come at the expense of Ukraine’s democratic freedom and long-term economic prospects.
Topic:
Development, Reform, Institutions, Economic Stability, Post-Soviet Space, and Victor Yanukovich
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

50078. Bulgaria’s Fiscal Expansion: Navigating Through Stormy Waters

Author:
Georgy Ganev
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
When the global economic crisis wreaked havoc across the world, most governments responded with a dramatic increase in spending. Their reactions had two main goals in mind: first, to bailout failing financial systems and second, to substitute the decline in private demand with a boost in aggregate public spending. For Bulgaria, fiscal stimulus programs proved to present their own unique set of challenges.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Bulgaria

50079. Will the U.S. Dollar Remain the Global Reserve Currency?

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The U.S. economy’s rapidly growing trade and current account deficits (2003-2007) and systematic weakening of the dollar against the Euro and other currencies raised several concerns about its future as the global reserve currency. The global financial crisis of 2007-2009, while reinforcing the U.S. dollar’s role as the most liquid and in demand currency (especially during periods of increased risk aversion) triggered a political debate on how the future global reserve currency system should be shaped.
Topic:
Finance, Economy, Currency, Dollar, and Euro
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

50080. Macroeconomic Surveillance Within the EU

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The new European Union (EU) economic governance package released by the European Commission on September 29, 2010 includes two major components, i.e., changes and amendments to the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and new regulation on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances within the EU and European Monetary Union (EMU). While the first piece offers a certain improvement in the EU fiscal surveillance rules the second one looks deeply flawed and operationally unenforceable.
Topic:
Debt, Financial Crisis, Governance, European Union, Macroeconomics, and European Monetary Union
Political Geography:
Europe