Political Geography: - CIAO Search Results

401. 50-30: Lessons from the U.S.-Vietnam Reconciliation: Roadmap for the World

Author:: Wafaa El-Sadr, Jean-Marie Guéhenno, Paige Arthur, Dany Dinh Quy, and Adam Tooze
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Commemorating 50 years since the end of the Vietnam War and the 30th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietnam rapprochement, members of Columbia Global and Vietnam's former representative at the United Nations reflect on potential lessons for the rest of the world in the two countries' gradual reconciliation. Chair: Wafaa El-Sadr, Executive Vice President of Columbia Global Moderator: Jean-Marie Guehenno, Director of the Kent Global Leadership Program on Conflict Resolution, SIPA Speakers: Paige Arthur, Director of Global Programming, Columbia Global Ambassador Dang Dinh Quy, former Permanent Representative of Vietnam to the United Nations Adam Tooze, Chair of the Committee on Global Thought; Director of the European Institute; Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of History Hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and co-sponsored by Columbia Global, this program was part of the three-day series "50-30: From War to Peace in Vietnam and the United States," held at Columbia University from April 30 through May 2, 2025.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Reconciliation, Vietnam War, and Rapprochement
Political Geography:: Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

402. 50-30: Conversations Left Unsettled — Healing the Wounds of War in Vietnam Through the Arts

Author:: Nguyễn Phan Quế Mai and Tony Bui
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Commemorating the 50th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War, this conversation among poet Nguyễn Phan Quế Mai; photographer Peter Steinhauer; and film director Tony Bui explores how the arts can reassess troubled legacies, foster dialogue, and build bridges for new generations. Speakers: Nguyễn Phan Quế Mai, poet and author Peter Steinhauer, photographer Moderator: Tony Bui, filmmaker; Artist in Residence, Weatherhead East Asian Institute; Adjunct Professor, School of the Arts This program was part of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute's three-day series "50-30: From War to Peace in Vietnam and the United States," held at Columbia University from April 30 through May 2, 2025.
Topic:: Arts, Reconciliation, Vietnam War, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Vietnam and Southeast Asia

403. Exhibitionist Japan: The Spectacle of Modern Development

Author:: Angus Lockyer
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: On April 13, Osaka opened its third and Japan's sixth international exhibition, or expo. This talk draws on a new book to sketch how the latest exhibition emerges from more than a century and a half of exhibitionism, which has included over 1,000 expos in Japan. This history offers a useful, corrective lens on standard accounts of both spectacle and modern Japanese development. Angus Lockyer has taught Japanese, East Asian, and global history in North Carolina and London. "Exhibitionist Japan: The Spectacle of Modern Development" was published by Cambridge University Press earlier this year. "Japan: A History in Objects," based on the collection of the British Museum, will come out in 2026. Lockyer currently lives in Rhode Island and teaches at RISD. Hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute.
Topic:: Development, History, and Museums
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

404. Precarious Geographies: Migrant Labor in China’s Network Production

Author:: Na Fu
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: As industrial production decentralizes, rural China has become a new hub for networked manufacturing, blurring the boundaries between factory and home. Migrant workers are returning to their hometowns to set up workshop-style facilities, driven by labor shortages, infrastructure improvements, and digital connectivity. Na Fu's study examines how mobility, once seen as a path to opportunity, now reinforces labor precarity, reshaping spatial and economic relations under China’s evolving network production system. Na Fu holds a Ph.D. in Politics from the New School for Social Research and is currently a Postdoctoral Fellow at China Initiative at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University. Her research explores the intersections of digital labor, political economy, and smart production, focusing on how technological advancements reinforce social inequities and drive resource extraction in industrial transformations. This event is hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute.
Topic:: Economics, Manufacturing, Migrant Workers, and Production
Political Geography:: China and Asia

405. Left to Live and Die: Resource Security and the Biopolitics of Land Stockpiling in China

Author:: Ross Doll
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: February 27, 2025 — Beginning in 2007 the Chinese state used liberalizing policy and funding to encourage the expansion of large-scale grain farming. Despite this support, many of the new farms have financially struggled and folded. Drawing on Foucauldian biopolitics and resource security literature, Ross Doll argues that with modernized agriculture the state primarily sought to create not commercial farms but redundant farming infrastructure, which it needed to buffer its growing reliance on food imports while abiding by the global trade regulations needed to sustain its urban export manufacturing economy. Ross Doll is a lecturer in the UC-Berkeley Blum Center for Developing Economies. He researches agrarian change in Asia drawing on political ecology, cultural geography, and resilience ecology. Based on longterm ethnography, his current research considers the origins and influence of contemporary state-led agricultural modernization in the Yangzi Delta region of China, focusing on food security, landscape, and rural politics. Dr. Doll teaches courses on the geographies of natural resources, global and Asian development, and global poverty. He holds a PhD in Geography and a MA in China Studies from the University of Washington. This event is hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and co-sponsored by China Center for Social Policy.
Topic:: Agriculture, Manufacturing, Imports, Farming, Biopolitics, Political Ecology, and Resources
Political Geography:: China and Asia

406. From the Country to the City, Life Today in Chengdu

Author:: Ning Yuan
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Ning Yuan is the author of several widely circulated works of fiction, owns a bookstore in Chengdu, has a clothing line made of natural fibers, and has led in the redevelopment of a village in Sichuan that was devastated by the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. Ning Yuan will introduce her various activities as described above and relate them to her observations on Chinese society, especially in Chengdu and environs.
Topic:: Development, Rural, and Cities
Political Geography:: China and Asia

407. Public Expectations of Government Responses to Security Contingencies Around Japan

Author:: Satoshi Machidori, Harukata Takenaka, Amy Catalinac, and Kenneth McElwain
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: In this workshop, scholars Satoshi Machidori and Harukata Takenaka speak on Japanese public attitudes toward possible geopolitical contingencies in the light of changing international environment in East Asia. Their new, large-scale survey experiment examines voter assessments of possible government responses to security crises, including a possible Taiwan contingency. The report also analyzes how perceptions of shared ethnicity may affect public reactions to a hypothetical threat from a democratic regime, expanding the research on the relationship between ethnicity and democratic peace. This research is part of a multi-year study project by ROLES (Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies, University of Tokyo). Speakers: Satoshi Machidori, Professor of Political Science, Graduate School of Law, Kyoto University, Japan Harukata Takenaka, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies = GRIPS, Japan Discussant: Amy Catalinac, Associate Professor of Politics, NYU Moderator: Kenneth Mori McElwain, Visiting Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Columbia University Hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and co-sponsored by China and the World Program and APEC Study Center.
Topic:: Security, Public Opinion, Geopolitics, and Ethnicity
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

408. Ronnie C. Chan: The Past, Present, and Future of U.S.-China Relations

Author:: Ronnie C. Chan and Lien-Hang Nguyen
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: December 2, 2024 — Ronnie C. Chan, Honorary Chair of Hang Lung Properties and Chair Emeritus of the Asia Society, speaks with Lien-Hang Nguyen, Director of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, about the implications of the 2024 U.S. presidential election for the future of U.S.-China relations and global stability. Columbia University Interim President Katrina Armstrong and University Professor Jeffrey Sachs contribute introductory remarks.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Political stability
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

409. Reforming Iran’s Energy Policy: Strategies for Sustainability, Subsidies, and Global Integration

Author:: Behdad Gilzad Kohan and Hamid Dahouei
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Iran’s energy sector, rich in natural gifts and brimming with potential, struggles to realize its promise due to systemic inefficiencies, heavy dependence on fossil fuels, outdated infrastructure, and the weight of international sanctions. These challenges plague Iran with recurring energy crises, including seasonal energy shortages, environmental degradation, and socio-economic discontent. This article investigates the root causes of Iran’s energy challenges and offers a comprehensive analysis of the critical deficiencies of Iranian energy policies. Based on these insights, the article proposes a strategic roadmap with immediate, medium-term, and long-term policy recommendations to stabilize the sector, most critical of which include subsidy reforms, ambitious renewable energy integration, and energy efficiency improvements. The proposed reforms emphasize the importance of transparent governance, targeted investments, and stakeholder engagement to achieve meaningful change. By aligning its energy policies with global sustainability trends and addressing domestic inefficiencies, Iran can transform its energy sector into a model of innovation and equity.
Topic:: Sanctions, Reform, Fossil Fuels, Sustainability, Subsidies, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

410. Superstorm Sandy and Coastal Corralling in New York City

Author:: Ari Lippi
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: On October 29, 2012, a cyclone and a tropical storm fused under an inauspicious full moon off the Atlantic Northwest of the US to create Hurricane Sandy. It beelined toward the New York City metropolitan area at high tide and became the most destructive and costly hurricane in the City’s history; costing NYC $19 billion in in damages, 43 deaths and the absence of electricity and heat for around two million people. While the impacts were widespread, the neighborhoods of Coney Island and the Rockaways experienced widely disparate impacts which magnified the underlying social vulnerabilities among low-income racialized and ethicized populations. This paper positions Hurricane Sandy as a locus of interrogation to question how discriminatory policies excised low-income and socially vulnerable populations to the environmentally vulnerable lands of Coney Island and the Rockaways at the time of Sandy, and what injustices preceded the event and were engendered as a result. To answer these questions, this paper will examine the sequence of displacement and place-making over time that created channels for populations with existing social vulnerabilities to be thrust into environmentally risky coastal areas in New York City. Ultimately, the process, which I name coastal corralling, created the conditions for the little-discussed post-storm disaster and environmental injustices in Coney Island and the Rockaways, producing chronic issues that continue to persist over a decade after the storm.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Hurricane, and Hurricane Sandy
Political Geography:: New York, North America, and United States of America

411. White Homeowners’ Racialized Opposition to Affordable Housing Development

Author:: Jose Luis Gandara
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: I investigate the effects of the race of the perceived beneficiaries of an affordable housing development on white homeowners’ support for the project, using an online survey experiment with 520 participants. I find that priming respondents to believe a nearby proposed project’s residents will likely be Black significantly increases opposition compared to the white prime. However, the effect is moderated by respondents’ racial attitudes, such that self-reported racially sensitive individuals instead become more supportive when led to believe a project’s residents will be Black. Despite racial cues increasing opposition, respondents do not express different concerns with development in a racialized context. These results suggest that race is a central factor driving attitudes toward affordable housing; however, racially motivated public commenters mask their concerns behind those ostensibly unrelated to race. Policymakers concerned with advancing equity while addressing the housing crisis may reconsider public comment’s role informing them of the public’s preferences toward development.
Topic:: Racism, Equity, and Affordable Housing
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

412. Two Roads to Reform: Marijuana Policy Changes, Arrest Trends, and Racial Disparities in Chicago and Indianapolis

Author:: Mustafa Ali-Smith and Keiana West
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: This paper examines the relationship between marijuana policy changes, arrest trends, and racial disparities in arrests in two major U.S. cities, Indianapolis and Chicago, between 2014 and 2023. Chicago implemented statewide legalization in January 2020, while Indianapolis decriminalized certain marijuana offenses at the county level in September 2019. By analyzing public arrest data from Chicago and the State of Indiana, this research addresses three key questions: whether marijuana-related arrests declined after these policy changes, how racial disparities in arrests changed after these shifts, and how marijuana arrest trends compare with those for other drugs. Our findings reveal significant reductions in marijuana-related arrests in both cities following policy reforms, though the degree of change varied. The results also demonstrate stark racial disparities in marijuana arrest rates both prior to and following policy changes in each city, though racial disparities decreased in both Chicago and Indianapolis following each policy change during the study period. Ultimately, racial disparities in both cities increased again as time after reform passed, signaling the need for policies and practices that sustain decreases in disparities overtime.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Reform, Marijuana, and Drug Policy
Political Geography:: North America, Chicago, United States of America, and Indianapolis

413. Unlocking India’s Energy Transition: Opportunities, Challenges, and the Role of Cross-Subsidies

Author:: Fatima Mumtaz
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: This paper examines India’s opportunities and challenges in unlocking its clean energy transition. While the country has made significant advancements in expanding its renewable energy capacity, structural inefficiencies within the electricity sector continue to hinder progress. A key barrier is the cross-subsidy pricing mechanism, which charges commercial and industrial users higher electricity tariffs to subsidize power for agricultural and residential consumers. Although originally intended to promote equity, this mechanism has, over time, contributed to mounting debts for power distribution companies, ultimately weakening the financial health of the electricity grid. This paper provides an analysis of the consequences of the cross-subsidy electricity pricing mechanism. It further explores how a phased approach to reforming this pricing structure could offer a viable pathway to address the financial instability of the power distribution companies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

414. From Trade to Supply Chain Investments: China’s Three Roles in the Solar Surge of the Gulf Region

Author:: Qi Wang
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: This paper examines China’s evolving role in the solar energy surge of the Gulf region, with a focus on the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. It identifies three approaches through which China has progressively deepened its participation: (1) large-scale export of solar products, (2) investment and construction of solar power projects, and (3) offshore investment in local solar manufacturing bases in the Gulf. These approaches reflect not only China’s response to ambitious green energy commitments and rising solar demand in the Gulf, but also the strategic efforts of China’s solar industry to address domestic overcapacity under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative and mitigate growing trade protectionism. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for China and the Gulf countries to strengthen solar cooperation, tackle trade barriers, and ensure a balanced, transparent, and sustainable energy transition.
Topic:: Investment, Trade, Solar Power, Supply Chains, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

415. Beyond the Weapon of War: Rethinking Gendered Narratives of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence

Author:: Sydney Leigh Smith
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) has traditionally been understood as an inevitable byproduct of war, with rape framed as a biologically driven act of sexual gratification committed by men against women. This perception shifted following landmark rulings by the International Criminal Tribunals for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and Rwanda (ICTR), which established sexual violence as a weapon of war. This article critically examines the "weapon of war" framework, which portrays militarized men as strategic perpetrators and women as symbolic victims, arguing that it reproduces harmful gendered identities and oversimplifies the complexities of sexual violence in conflict. The paper first traces the historical evolution of how CRSV has been conceptualized—from a natural consequence of war to a gendered and strategic tool of power—before analyzing the limitations of the weapon of war paradigm. It highlights the framework’s exclusion of male victims, female perpetrators, and diverse motivations for sexual violence—such as opportunism, material gain, and combatant bonding—as well as its failure to account for cases where armed groups refrain from using sexual violence altogether. Drawing on original analysis of over 4,000 redacted ICTR witness testimonies, the article demonstrates how the framework has constrained legal recognition, obscured lived experiences, and reproduced narrow narratives of ethnic hatred and gendered violence. It calls for a reframing of the gendered weapon of war concept to better account for the complexity of CRSV and to promote more inclusive approaches to justice, prevention, and survivor-centered redress.
Topic:: Rape, Sexual Violence, Accountability, Armed Conflict, Gender, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

416. The Fight Over Gender Equality in South Korea

Author:: Cecilia Hyunjung Mo and Soosun You
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: As more South Korean men perceive marriage as unattainable, their politics disfavor gender equality and reinforce sexism. These attitudes likely make marriage less appealing to women, which in turn fuels backlash among men.
Topic:: Demographics, Survey, Marriage, Gender, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

417. Forecasting Nuclear Escalation Risks: Cloudy With a Chance of Fallout

Author:: Jamie Kwong, Anna Bartoux, and James M. Acton
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Forecasting—that is, estimating the probability of specified events’ occurring—can contribute to efforts to better understand and address the challenge of managing escalation.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Forecast, Escalation, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

418. Democratic Recovery After Significant Backsliding: Emergent Lessons

Author:: Thomas Carothers and McKenzie Carrier
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: In a global political landscape marked by twenty years of widespread democratic backsliding, some good news exists: in a handful of countries where leaders significantly undercut democratic norms and institutions, elections have brought to power new leadership with a strong declared commitment to restoring democracy.
Topic:: Democracy, Institutions, Democratic Backsliding, and Global Politics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

419. What the White House and Congress Can Do to Prevent Global Mass Atrocities

Author:: Federica D'Alessandra
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Unites States has long recognized that preventing and responding to mass atrocities is both a moral responsibility and in its national security interest. Commitment to atrocity prevention and response has long enjoyed broad bipartisan support, and the U.S. government has long been a global leader on the issue. In 2011, the United States was the first country to establish an interagency body dedicated to atrocity prevention. Ever since, each Republican and Democratic administration—with the support of Congress—has taken additional, important steps toward implementing this objective. In 2019, under President Donald Trump, the United States was the first country to enact federal legislation addressing global mass atrocities. The Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act mandates the White House to report annually to Congress on government-led atrocity prevention efforts. Under the act, the second Trump administration will again be required to report to Congress by mid-2025, raising the question: What is in store for the atrocity prevention agenda under Trump 2.0? This paper reviews the atrocity prevention track record of the first Trump administration and other relevant action taken so far in this second term to parse out what efforts to sustain and uphold U.S. atrocity prevention obligations could look like under Trump’s second White House. This paper highlights how a number of steps the administration has already taken, including but not limited to the recently announced reorganization of the U.S. Department of State and the effective dissolution of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), unless promptly addressed, will raise dire challenges for the readiness and capacity of the State Department and other relevant agencies tasked with operationalizing U.S. commitments to this end. Accordingly, this paper advances a number of actionable recommendations that both the White House and the U.S. Congress should urgently consider to ensure the administration stands ready and capable to fulfill its obligations under the Elie Wiesel Act and other relevant legislation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

420. Geothermal Energy and U.S. Competitive Advantage: Drill, Baby, Drill

Author:: Robert W. Sweeney and Noah Gordon
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The United States and the rest of the world sit at the intersection of potentially destabilizing trends. Great power competition, climate change, intensifying geopolitical uncertainty, the economy’s potential deglobalization, and the potential massive increase in energy demands arising from artificial intelligence (AI) are creating challenges for U.S. national energy policy. A foremost concern is the vulnerability of energy supply chains to interference from or control by a hostile power. In this dynamic context, U.S. energy policy has evolved significantly in terms of markets, supplies, regulation, and legislation. The country’s success in using fracking technology and exploiting abundant shale reserves have made it the world’s largest producer of hydrocarbons and a major exporter, especially of natural gas.1 Further, as national and international concerns about climate change have grown, U.S. energy policy has become more aligned with transitioning to renewable sources. So far, the focus of clean energy additions has been on wind, solar, and nuclear power. Beginning in the mid-2000s, the United States issued legislation and policies raising renewable energy to the level of industrial policy. Among those were the Energy Policy Act (2005), the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009), the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) (2021), the CHIPS and Science Act (2022), and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (2022). However, geothermal energy—which uses the heat of the earth’s crust for power—has been largely left out of U.S. industrial policy. This is despite the facts that utilizing this source of renewable energy requires some of the same technologies that have made the United States the world’s top oil and gas producer and that geothermal has the potential to provide clean, dispatchable power that does not rely on weather conditions. With U.S. clean firm power demand expected to increase by approximately 700–900 gigawatts by 2050,2 the United States needs to dramatically increase capacity while reducing or eliminating net carbon output and insulating its energy supply from dependence on international supply chains. The question for the country now is: how should public and private resources be directed to provide the United States with an energy system optimized for the current national and international environment? This paper argues that recent advances in geothermal power have made it the technology with superior characteristics for future U.S. energy system development. With its comparative advantages, geothermal power merits an urgent, intense, and dedicated reorientation of U.S. industrial policy, legislation, and resources.
Topic:: Development, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Geothermal Power
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

421. Will Kuwait’s Parliamentary Democracy Be Restored, Reformed, or Repudiated?

Author:: Omar Al Jasser and Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Kuwaitis are accustomed to a domestic political scene that sometimes resembles a soap opera with shifting characters and much melodrama but no resolution. For over a generation, fiercely contested parliamentary elections have consistently produced fractured parliaments that clash with individual ministers, leading to confrontation, parliamentary grilling, and dissolutions of cabinets and parliaments that are replaced by new bodies that merely resume the tussle. But on May 10, 2024, the soap opera abruptly came to an end. Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad, the newly enthroned emir, not only dissolved the recently elected parliament but also suspended the body indefinitely, promising a four-year process of constitutional revision. While the step was dramatic, the extent and nature of further change remains unclear. The suspension is forcing all Kuwaiti political actors to direct their attention to portentous long-term issues rather than more ephemeral short-term drama, but so far there is little indication of how the issues will be resolved. The drama of daily crises has often obscured far more significant evolutionary trends. Over the six decades of its existence, the Kuwaiti constitution’s text has not changed, but the way key institutions operate (parliament in particular) and the way they interact (especially cabinet-parliamentary relations) have changed significantly. The suspension of parliament came largely in response to ruler frustrations with this dichotomy and the feeling that parliaments lead to gridlock, grandstanding, and corruption. Has a governing system that seemed to offer so much noise and motion but little movement come to a full stop? Will Kuwait rejoin its neighbors and abandon its experiment with powerful parliaments? Other parliamentary bodies on the Arabian Peninsula are generally more limited in their prerogatives, and elections are either avoided or constrained; notably, Qatar abandoned elections in favor of an appointed assembly six months after the Kuwaiti parliamentary suspension. Or will Kuwait instead simply revert back to its old system after a cooling-off period or in response to popular pressure (as happened twice in the past)? At this point, it is uncertain whether Kuwait’s style of parliamentary democracy will be restored, reformed, or repudiated. Still, the fallout from the emir’s action has deeply affected the rhythm of Kuwaiti politics (and silenced some of the loudest public discussions) without determining the country’s fundamental direction. The path of full autocracy remains open, and the promise of a committee to reform the constitution and pave the way for parliamentary restoration has been ignored to date. But this inaction does not necessarily imply an intention to permanently abolish parliament; rather, it may suggest that reform or restoration is more likely. Regardless, there are currently no clear indications of what changes might be made. So, while the potential for dramatic change exists, Kuwait’s leaders may have simply bought themselves a respite rather than a resolution. Important Kuwaiti political actors seem to be working out their strategies very slowly, meaning that questions will be answered over years, not weeks or months. But in the meantime, the flavor of Kuwaiti politics is shifting in ways that are often unannounced but very consequential for a society accustomed to a feisty and active political life.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Kuwait and Gulf Nations

422. Double Dealers: Lebanon and the Risks of Captagon Trafficking

Author:: Mohanad Hage Ali
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Lebanon’s financial collapse and the Syrian conflict have allowed for the growth of an illicit economy, giving rise to a new breed of drug traffickers with ties to Lebanese parties and influence in the security forces. To address this, the country must adopt a comprehensive approach.
Topic:: Security, Syrian War, Drug Trafficking, and Captagon
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

423. Rethinking a Political Approach to Nuclear Abolition

Author:: George Perkovich, Fumihiko Yoshida, and Michiru Nishida
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Preventing nuclear war and other existential military threats requires nations today to focus more on politics than on the qualities or quantities of weapons. Yet, many participants in nuclear policy debates do the opposite.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Military
Political Geography:: Global Focus

424. Reconsidering Sovereignty Amid the Climate Crisis

Author:: Nitya Labh
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The current international order is based on the presumption that our physical geography is fixed and unchanging. However, climate change—in the form of sea level rise and inundation—is shifting international boundaries. The world’s changing geography will force policymakers and legal experts to adapt the concepts of sovereignty, statehood, and citizenship to address the new global environment. This paper focuses its discussion of climate impacts and response policies on the Pacific islands. The changes befalling low-lying islands, like those in the Pacific, are a harbinger of the future that awaits the residents of coastal cities and shorelines on larger land bodies.1 Islands’ experiences of climate change offer insights into the shortcomings of the existing international system and demonstrate the fundamental tension between sovereignty and climate change. Ultimately, the Pacific region serves as an important case study and a critical blueprint for the future of global adaptation and stability. In view of this challenge, policymakers should consider new legal options to address climate-induced boundary changes. These may include the creation of fictitious boundaries, collective sovereignty, hybrid citizenship, and corridors for climate displacement. This paper does not seek to suggest that these new ideas for sovereignty are the only path to resolving the nexus of legal-climate challenges that exist today. Instead, this paper attempts to raise new questions and ideas about how policymakers should think about the international system at a time when anthropogenic climate and environmental change is rearranging its geophysical foundations.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Sovereignty, and International Order
Political Geography:: Indo-Pacific

425. De-Peripheralizing Morocco’s East in the Face of Climate Change and Border Securitization

Author:: Yasmine Zarhloule
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The closure of the border between Morocco and Algeria disrupted smuggling networks in the former’s Eastern Region. Moroccan authorities have since striven to develop local infrastructure and create alternative employment there. While these initiatives have maintained stability, the challenges posed by climate change, particularly water scarcity, remain. This underscores the need for Morocco to more thoroughly integrate climate-change adaptation strategies into local and regional planning, while also embracing and protecting indigenous ancestral socioeconomic systems.
Topic:: Climate Change, Water, Border Control, and Securitization
Political Geography:: North Africa and Morocco

426. Ending the New Wars of Attrition: Opportunities for Collective Regional Security in the Middle East

Author:: Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Middle East’s only viable path toward stability and security lies in fostering dialogue, coordinated initiatives, and joint diplomacy among its influential states.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Armed Conflict, Dialogue, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: Middle East

427. China Decoupling Beyond the United States: Comparing Germany, Japan, and India

Author:: Joshua Sullivan and Jon Bateman
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Key U.S. partners are moving toward less technological integration with China. But their specific paths diverge significantly based on domestic circumstances and varied relationships with Beijing.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, Economy, Regional Integration, and Decoupling
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, Asia, Germany, and United States of America

428. Measuring Changes Caused by Generative Artificial Intelligence: Setting the Foundations

Author:: Samantha Lai, Ben Nimmo, Derek Ruths, and Alicia Wanless
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Informed policy that leads to beneficial change is extremely challenging to develop without being able to measure the material impacts of GenAI.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Policy, and Generative Models
Political Geography:: Global Focus

429. European Democracy Support Annual Review 2024

Author:: Richard Youngs, Kinga Brudzinska, Zselyke Csaky, Ricardo Farinha, and Ken Godfrey
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: In 2024, a series of elections reinforced EU concerns about the fragility of European democracies. This, coupled with intensifying conflict dynamics and authoritarian trends worldwide, led the EU to focus on protecting democracy at home at the expense of supporting it globally.
Topic:: Civil Society, Authoritarianism, Reform, European Union, Democracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Europe

430. International Crimes Accountability Matters in Post-Assad Syria

Author:: Federica D'Alessandra
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Syria’s civil war has already changed the global accountability landscape. It could now set the course for the future of post-regime transitions.
Topic:: Syrian War, Accountability, International Crime, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

431. Assessing National Information Ecosystems

Author:: Alicia Wanless, Samantha Lai, and John Hicks
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Often driven by misunderstanding, fears abound over how new technologies will change an information ecosystem.1 They might, and they might not. Either way, it’s extremely difficult to know what those changes will be without first understanding what an ecosystem was like before the introduction of those new technologies. In other words, to know how a system has changed, one must first know what constitutes the system and its prior state. This paper proffers factors that can constitute baselines for assessing national information ecosystems that can be measured across decades, geographies, and cultures. Assessing these factors over time and comparing them among countries can foster understanding of the impacts of new regulations, conflicts, and technologies. Perhaps more importantly, such an approach offers an objective analysis of information ecosystems, which is much needed in these politically charged times. The framework can also be used to identify existing gaps in knowledge, guiding policymakers and researchers on funding and research priorities to establish baselines of national information ecosystems. As those baselines are established and maintained, comparative analysis between ecosystems can generate insights on policy interventions to redress threats within them.
Topic:: Science and Technology and Information Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

432. To Vote or Not to Vote: Venezuelans Face Another Election Choice

Author:: Catherine Ellis
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the shadow of a contested presidential vote, Venezuela’s upcoming regional elections reveal more about power struggles than democratic representation.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Representation, and Voting
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

433. Indigenous Women Survivors of Guatemala’s Rape Camps Seek Justice

Author:: Jo-Marie Burt, Paulo Estrada, and Eduardo Colindres
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Forty years after surviving state violence, Maya Achi women return to court to demand justice, challenging a long legacy of impunity for crimes against humanity.
Topic:: Rape, Sexual Violence, Accountability, Justice, and Crimes Against Humanity
Political Geography:: Central America and Guatemala

434. The Modern Surveillance State: Mexico and the CIA during the Cold War

Author:: Claire Dorfman
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Newly declassified CIA documents reveal the links between Mexico’s contemporary surveillance state and a uniquely close Cold War collaboration with U.S. intelligence agencies.
Topic:: Cold War, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

435. The Reinvention of the Strike: 10 Years of Feminist Uprising in Argentina

Author:: Verónica Gago and Linas Kojala
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: This year marks the 10-year anniversary of the Ni Una Menos movement. Understanding the tensions that mark these moments of intense rearrangements and changes in increasingly militarized capitalism is urgent.
Topic:: Capitalism, Protests, and Labor Strike
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

436. Debates over TPS for Venezuelans Reveal Diasporic Divide

Author:: Francisco Llinas Casas and Erick Moreno Superlano
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The battle over Temporary Protected Status provides a window into the class, racial, and political divisions within the Venezuelan diaspora in the United States.
Topic:: Politics, Race, Diaspora, Class, Immigration Policy, and Temporary Protection Status (TPS)
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

437. Honduran Farmers Continue Their Fight for Land and Justice

Author:: Jaime Jacques
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: After the murder of their leader, communities in the Aguán Valley have continued their fight against corruption, impunity, and the pollution of their lands.
Topic:: Justice, Land Rights, Pollution, and Activism
Political Geography:: Central America and Honduras

438. Cuerpx en Vela: Travesti Performance Against the Necro-State

Author:: Malú Machuca Rose
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Artist Germa Machuca uses her body as an altar and guiding light to illuminate the connections across anti-trans and anti-Indigenous violence in Peru.
Topic:: Arts, Violence, Indigenous, Transgender, and Travesti
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

439. At the Thresholds: Labor Organizing as Travesti-Trans Formal Workers in Argentina

Author:: Francisco Fernández Romero, Pato Laterra, and Victor Sánchez
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Travesti and trans workers in the formal sector expand imaginaries about the relationship between LGTBQ+ people and work, contributing to broader labor struggles for all of society.
Topic:: Labor Issues, LGBT+, Transgender, and Organizing
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

440. For Trans Men in Colombia, All Cops Are Bastards

Author:: Nikita Dupuis-Vargas Latorre
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Violence against trans men by state forces is widespread—and little studied. The profiling inherent to mandatory military service only aggravates the problem.
Topic:: Violence, LGBT+, Police, Transgender, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

441. Transfeminist Struggles Against Debt and Dispossession

Author:: Lucía Cavallero
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In Argentina, sexual dissidents mobilize transversal alliances to denounce indebtedness as a tool of capitalist displacement and violence.
Topic:: Debt, Capitalism, Displacement, Feminism, Violence, and Transgender
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

442. Community Forestry Addresses Environmental Destruction in Mexico

Author:: Linda Farthing
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Community-based governance structures put decision-making about Ixlán de Juarez’s forests into local hands, creating economic opportunity and reversing centuries of deforestation in the town.
Topic:: Environment, Governance, Deforestation, Forestry, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

443. Neofascist March Calls for the Expulsion of Haitians in Punta Cana

Author:: Simón Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A recent violent and destructive march calling for the expulsion of Haitians in Punta Cana demonstrates the vehement anti-Haitianism and rising fascism prevalent in the Dominican Republic.
Topic:: Economics, Far Right, Migrant Workers, and Neofascism
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, Haiti, and Dominican Republic

444. El Salvador, No Place for Asylum Seekers

Author:: Laura Blume, Stephanie Sosa, and Andrea García Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Deported from the United States without due process, asylum seekers now face political persecution and deadly conditions in El Salvador’s mega-prisons as the Trump administration outsources cruelty to the Bukele regime.
Topic:: Prisons/Penal Systems, Donald Trump, Deportation, Due Process, Nayib Bukele, and Asylum Seekers
Political Geography:: Central America, El Salvador, and United States of America

445. Colombia's Just Energy Transition

Author:: Patricia Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: President Gustavo Petro is leading the way in promoting a fossil fuel phase-out in South America and beyond, but there are challenges and contradictions in Colombia’s actions at home.
Topic:: Climate Change, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

446. Tren de Aragua: A Gang, Not Terrorist Invaders

Author:: Elliott Young
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act to target Venezuelan migrants relies on a false narrative about Tren de Aragua and the Venezuelan state, and sets a dangerous precedent for immigrant rights.
Topic:: Immigration, Deportation, Gangs, and Tren de Aragua
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

447. Ecuador Enters "Trump Mode" with Noboa Victory

Author:: Ociel Alí López
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Authoritarian drift and political blackmail shape the runoff election in Ecuador, where incumbent President Daniel Noboa won Sunday’s vote.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Domestic Politics, Democratic Backsliding, and Daniel Noboa
Political Geography:: Central America and Ecuador

448. The Life of a Trans Mexican Revolutionary, in Drag

Author:: Olivia Ferrari
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Drag performers mine the story of the revolutionary hero and trans icon Amelio Robles to better understand the past and shape the future.
Topic:: History, Transgender, Amelio Robles, Drag, and Mexican Revolution
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

449. Can Democracy Stop Extractivism and Authoritarianism?

Author:: Paula Sevilla Núñez
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Ecuador’s electorate will go to a runoff vote in April in a highly polarized climate. At stake is a broader political struggle between authoritarianism and democracy.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Extractivism
Political Geography:: Central America and Ecuador

450. Despite Regional Opposition, a Canadian Company Pursues Mining in Santander

Author:: Lital Khaikin
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the face of rifts over securitization issues and calls for conservation, Aris Mining intends to launch the Soto Norte mine in Santander, Colombia, in 2029.
Topic:: Environment, Mining, Conservation, and Securitization
Political Geography:: Canada, Colombia, and South America

451. In a Polarized Political Climate, Ecuador Heads to a Presidential Runoff

Author:: Marc Becker
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Ecuador held its general election on February 9. Defying the polls, Ecuadorians will be heading to a runoff race in April to choose its next president.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Central America and Ecuador

452. In the Face of Violence, Catatumbo’s Communities Call for Solidarity

Author:: Priscyll Anctil Avoine and Adriana Pérez-Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Failed peace negotiations and the battle for control over valuable territory have produced an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe.
Topic:: Solidarity, Negotiation, Humanitarian Crisis, and FARC
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Catatumbo

453. A Proposal for Plurinational Popular Power Woven from Below

Author:: Malvika Gupta
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Leonidas Iza, Ecuador’s presidential candidate with the Indigenous-aligned Pachakutik political movement, outlines his vision for governing a Plurinational State.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Domestic Politics, Indigenous, and Plurinationalism
Political Geography:: Central America and Ecuador

454. Panama Canal Takeover: An Old Ghost in a Curious Present

Author:: Francisco Javier Bonilla
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Trump's threat to take back the Panama Canal signals a new era of U.S. expansionism and the greatest attack on Central American sovereignty since the 1990s.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Donald Trump, Panama Canal, and Expansionism
Political Geography:: Central America and Panama

455. The Forgotten Victims: Orphans of Femicide in Colombia

Author:: Anna Abraham, Tony Kirby, and David García
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the face of the femicide crisis in Colombia, a second crisis persists: hundreds of children are left orphaned each year and without support from the state.
Topic:: Crime, Children, Gender Based Violence, Femicide, and Orphans
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

456. Trump and the Threat of Domestic Militarization

Author:: Dawn Paley and Ojalá
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Mexico's experience with the militarization of prohibition and migration is defined by violence and displacement.
Topic:: Migration, Displacement, Violence, Donald Trump, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

457. The Disappearance of a Mapuche Elder is an Indictment of Chile’s “Progressive” Government

Author:: Carole Concha Bell
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Activists link the disappearance of land defender Julia Chuñil to the state’s militarization of the region and its deep ties to rapacious forestry companies.
Topic:: Disappearance, Land Rights, Indigenous, Deforestation, and Mapuche
Political Geography:: South America and Chile

458. Forensic Crisis Reveals Institutional Responsibility in Mexico City’s Disappearance Crisis

Author:: Eliana Gilet, Madeleine Wattenbarger, and Gleider I. Hernández
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In Mexico City, families of the disappeared mobilize for justice for their loved ones and the accountability of forensic authorities.
Topic:: Crime, Accountability, Police, Disappearance, Activism, and Forensics
Political Geography:: Latin America, Mexico, and Mexico City

459. Mass Grave in Medellín Tourist Hotspot Sparks War of Words—and Walls

Author:: Joshua Collins
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The discovery in historic neighborhood Comuna 13, a neighborhood known for its art as much as its dark past, has reignited the debate over paramilitarism in the country.
Topic:: Arts, Tourism, Memory, Paramilitary, and Mass Grave
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Medellín

460. This Spanglish Bookstore In New York Is Reclaiming Bushwick's Sense Of Latinidad

Author:: Victoria Mortimer
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Mil Mundos began as a means for María Herrón to reclaim her identity. Now, this bookstore’s founder is building a community among Latines in Brooklyn, New York.
Topic:: Community, Identity, and Spanglish
Political Geography:: New York, North America, and United States of America

461. A New Mall for the Village: How Carbon Credits Impact Indigenous People in Guyana

Author:: Clarissa Levy and Agência Pública
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In 2022, Guyana became the first country in the world to issue carbon credits on a national scale. Indigenous people say they were excluded from the negotiations and criticize the loss of autonomy in their territories.
Topic:: Negotiation, Indigenous, Autonomy, Carbon Emissions, and Carbon Credits
Political Geography:: South America and Guyana

462. The U.S. Is Helping Brazilian Police Kill

Author:: Joseph Bouchard
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Brazil’s highly militarized policing disproportionately impacts poor and racialized communities. By providing funding and training, the United States has helped exacerbate the crisis.
Topic:: Training, Police, Militarization, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

463. Explosive Report and Exposé on Colombia’s Magdalena Medio Oil Industry

Author:: Yago Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: After a two-year investigation, a comprehensive report, BBC documentary, and whistleblower dossier reveal alleged widespread contamination, health impacts, and surveillance by Colombia’s state-owned Ecopetrol.
Topic:: Oil, Surveillance, Journalism, Investigations, State-Owned Enterprises, and Contamination
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

464. Buscadoras in Mexico Under Threat After Grisly Discovery

Author:: Joshua Collins and Daniela Diaz Rangel
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: News of a mass grave found by civilian search collectives has reopened an old debate about a lack of political will on the part of authorities to investigate violent crime.
Topic:: Crime, Accountability, Police, and Mass Grave
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

465. "Memory Moves Us": Argentines Take to the Streets for 24M

Author:: Virginia Tognola
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the face of Javier Milei’s deepening attack on civil rights, massive mobilizations in Argentina honor the victims of state terrorism on the Day of Remembrance for Truth and Justice.
Topic:: Protests, Memory, Civil Rights, Truth and Reconciliation, and Javier Milei
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

466. Destierro y Desmar: Embroidering Experiences of Internal Migration and Forced Displacement

Author:: Morgan Londoño Marín
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: For transmasculine activists uprooted from the lands and waters they called home, embroidery and poetry become practices for expressing nostalgia and building community in Bogotá.
Topic:: Arts, LGBT+, Community, Transgender, Forced Displacement, and Embroidery
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

467. Cuerpos Furiosos: Travesti-Trans Politics for Counterrevolutionary Times

Author:: Cole Rizki
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Spring 2025 issue of the NACLA Report explores travesti-trans politics across the Americas, an antifascist and transversal politics with the power to reshape our world.
Topic:: Politics, Transgender, Antifascism, and Travesti
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Central America

468. Afro-Feminist Poetics and Trans Life in Cuba: A Conversation with Max Fonseca

Author:: Kerry M. White and Max Fonseca
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The poet and activist talks about the precarity that trans, queer, and Afrodescendent people in Cuba face today, and the life sustaining worlds built by Black trans women in Cuba and its diaspora.
Topic:: Politics, Feminism, Interview, Transgender, Activism, and Afro-Feminism
Political Geography:: Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean

469. Bodies on Fire: Toloposungo’s Trans-Marika Abolitionist Performance

Author:: Cecilia Azar
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In Colombia, a trans-marika vogue collective takes to the streets to denounce state violence and call for police abolition.
Topic:: Culture, State Violence, Transgender, and Abolitionism
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

470. Anti-Racist Transfeminism: Against Adjustment and the Plundering of Rights

Author:: Chana Mamani
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the face of discriminatory narratives and laws in Argentina, activists advocate for anti-racist, transfeminist initiatives during this year’s International Women’s Day.
Topic:: Feminism, Racism, Activism, and Transfeminism
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

471. “Carnival is Always Political”: Keeping Protest Alive in Trinidad

Author:: Khalea Robertson
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Designer Robert Young discusses the political activism woven into the costumes of his band, Vulgar Fraction, which participates annually in Trinidad and Tobago’s Carnival celebrations.
Topic:: Politics, Protests, Interview, and Carnival
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, and Trinidad and Tobago

472. Brazil’s Student Movement Resists the Far Right, at Home and Abroad

Author:: Alice Taylor
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the days after the Trump inauguration, Brazilian students gathered at the largest student congress in Latin America to debate the future of left resistance.
Topic:: Donald Trump, Leftist Politics, Students, and Activism
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Latin America

473. Trump’s Latin America Policy: Inconsistencies and Vacillations

Author:: Steve Ellner
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s volatility on foreign policy reveals internal divisions within Trumpism. But when threats and populism lose their momentum, the anti-communist hawks may get their way.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Latin America

474. The U.S. War on Migrants Gets Help from El Salvador

Author:: Timothy O'Farrell
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: El Salvador's offer to house deportees and U.S. citizens in its infamous prisons – for profit – signals a new and troubling escalation in the criminalization of migration.
Topic:: Migration, Prisons/Penal Systems, Donald Trump, Deportation, and Criminalization
Political Geography:: Latin America, El Salvador, and United States of America

475. Rio’s Samba Parade Spotlights Trans Rights

Author:: Constance Malleret
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Tuiuiti samba school uplifts trans identities and highlights the political dimensions of Brazil’s Carnival celebrations.
Topic:: Politics, Dance, Transgender, and Carnival
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

476. Forbidden African Legacies in the Dominican Republic

Author:: Patricia Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Despite the ongoing criminalization and racist persecution of African tradition, from the criminalization of Vodou to restrictions against Gagá, Afro-Dominican culture persists.
Topic:: Culture, Racism, Tradition, Criminalization, and Vodou
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, and Dominican Republic

477. South Sudan’s peace process stagnates as violence grips Greater Upper Nile region

Author:: Stefan Bakumenko
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In September 2024, South Sudan’s government postponed elections until 2026.1 This and other violations of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) reinforce the country’s deep divisions and continued, widespread violence.2 After a devastating civil war (2013-2018), politicians, generals, and communities have lacked a unifying identity or incentive and have focused on shoring up their political power, undermining their rivals, and diversifying their economic holdings. As South Sudan’s oil fields dry up, wealth and sustenance are carved out wherever they can be found, often violently.3 The central government in Juba deprives national institutions of funding, neither state nor rebel forces are committed to integrating into a unified military, and state officials at all levels exploit their positions to fund expensive lifestyles and large patronage networks.4 Politicians have long plundered South Sudan’s main source of wealth, its state-owned oil company, Nilepet, to fuel their wars and wealth, and the country remains economically destitute.5 Across South Sudan, violence has become more geographically dispersed as armed groups have fractured. Between 1 January 2013 and the signing of R-ARCSS on 12 September 2018, there were conflict events in 718 distinct locations, compared to 1,720 between 13 September 2018 and 17 January 2025 (see maps below). Given these realities, the peace process could hardly address South Sudan’s myriad, local-level contests over borders, resources, and political positions.6
Topic:: Elections, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Peace Process
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

478. Q&A: What happened in the coastal region of Syria last week?

Author:: Muaz Al Abdullah
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 6 March, a group of armed supporters of former President Bashar al-Assad ambushed a group of security forces in Beit Ana village in the Lattakia countryside, killing and injuring several service members. Following the attack, the gunmen targeted an ambulance that tried to evacuate those who were killed and injured. This triggered a large-scale response by the security forces inside Beit Ana that included artillery shelling and helicopter strikes. Later that same day, Assad loyalists launched coordinated attacks across Lattakia and Tartus governorates to restore control over the main junctions that link the two provinces. This sparked a cycle of violence that included extrajudicial killings of people in the Alawite community by regime forces. At least 57 distinct locations in Lattakia, Hama, Homs, and Tartus governorates were the site of violence over four days (see map below).
Topic:: Security, Extrajudicial Killings, Armed Conflict, and Alawites
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

479. India — Expert Comment: Kashmir attack stokes tensions along the India-Pakistan Line of Control

Author:: Pearl Pandya
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 22 April, separatist militants fired at tourists in the resort town of Pahalgam in the Kashmir Valley, killing at least 26, including one foreign national. This was the deadliest attack on civilians in nearly two decades, and a rare attack against tourists, who have thus far been largely spared from separatist violence.1 Local reports attributed the attack to The Resistance Front (TRF), believed to be an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, an Islamist separatist group.2 While the group has focused its activities against Indian security forces, ACLED data show the TRF’s involvement in at least 21 attacks targeting civilians in Kashmir since the group’s founding in 2019. Similar to Tuesday’s attack, non-Kashmiris and Hindus have borne the brunt of the TRF’s violence.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Violence, Separatism, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

480. Expert Comment: The possibility of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea

Author:: Clionadh Raleigh
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: ACLED’s CEO, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, said: “The lines of this potential conflict are too fragmented, and there is more smoke than fire. The prevailing idea seems to be a rising contest between Eritrea and Ethiopia in and over Tigray, which the Ethiopia National Defense Force (ENDF) withdrew from in February. The ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) party is incredibly and dangerously fragmented, and the non-ruling fragment is making a lot of noise. Although the faction has never admitted it, much is being made about their possible opportunistic alliances with the (former and current enemy) Eritrean government on one hand and fragments of the (former and current enemy) Amhara nationalist militias — Fano — on the other hand. So who would fight whom over what is as confusing and unlikely in Tigray as it is outside of the region.”
Topic:: Armed Conflict, Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), and Ethiopia National Defense Force (ENDF)
Political Geography:: Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Africa

481. Philippines — Expert Comment: Drug war killings continue in the Philippines as former president Rodrigo Duterte faces ICC warrant over anti-drugs crackdown

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In the weeks that followed the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte on 11 March, nationwide protests against and in support of him broke out in the Philippines. ACLED data show nearly 60 pro-Duterte and eight anti-Duterte rallies in the Philippines in March. The largest protest took place in Davao City, Duterte’s stronghold, where supporters condemned Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. for allowing the arrest.1 In contrast, the demonstrations in support of the ICC’s actions were led by the families of drug victims. Meanwhile, Filipinos living overseas gathered in The Hague to support Duterte and ask for his repatriation.
Topic:: War on Drugs, Extrajudicial Killings, International Criminal Court (ICC), and Rodrigo Duterte
Political Geography:: Philippines and Asia-Pacific

482. Iron Wall or iron fist? Palestinian militancy and Israel’s campaign to reshape the northern West Bank

Author:: Ameneh Mehvar and Nasser Khdour
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The largest forced displacement of Palestinians in the West Bank since 1967 has taken place in the first months of 2025, according to the United Nations:1 Over 40,000 Palestinians have been displaced, and the Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nur al-Shams camps are nearly emptied. This occurred as part of an operation launched on 21 January 2025 called Iron Wall — the largest Israel Defense Forces (IDF) military operation in the West Bank in decades — which initially targeted refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarm before expanding to other areas, including Tubas and Nablus. The operation was launched shortly after the ceasefire in Gaza went into effect (see graph below), when Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, announced that the government had decided to add security in the West Bank as an official war goal.2 Israeli officials allege that militancy in the West Bank is part of a multi-pronged campaign orchestrated by Iran against Israel,3 and that it is necessary to curb the growing militant presence in the north, citing both the intensity of the fighting and the number of attacks originating from the area — some targeting Israel — as justification for the operation.4 However, the UN and other human rights organizations have criticized Israel’s heavy-handed approach in Operation Iron Wall, stating that its use of force is more suited to war than policing.5
Topic:: Settler Colonialism, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), 2023 Gaza War, Forced Displacement, and Militancy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

483. Q&A | Disbanding the PKK: A turning point in Turkey’s longest war?

Author:: Nancy Ezzeddine
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 12 May 2025, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) officially announced its decision to disband and end its armed struggle. Designated a terrorist organization by Turkey and several of its allies, the group has waged a decades-long insurgency for Kurdish autonomy and rights. This announcement followed a unilateral ceasefire declared on 1 March, after the PKK’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, issued a call for the group to disarm. The PKK has previously made commitments to peace, but last week’s announcement is unprecedented. In this Q&A, ACLED Middle East Analyst Nancy Ezzeddine explains how this development compares to previous efforts, what motivates each side, and whether it marks the start of a sustainable peace process.
Topic:: Insurgency, Kurds, PKK, and Peace Process
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

484. Regional deprivation, individual prospects, and political resentment

Author:: Giovanni Facchini, Anja Neundorf, Sergi Pardos-Prado, and Cecilia Testa
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: Regional economic conditions affect livelihoods and the geography of political resentment. Yet, individuals do not equally partake in their region’s economic fortunes, and their perceptions of relative deprivation need not be the same. Grievances are likely to be shaped not only by income disparities but also by how personal prospects are tied to regional conditions. We argue that the interaction between subjective individual and regional relative deprivation crucially affects perceptions of shared experience and systemic unfairness. Through a large-scale survey experiment in Britain, we provide causal evidence that poor individuals in poor regions express more political resentment due to diminished personal financial prospects and social status. In contrast, political attitudes among poor and wealthy individuals are indistinguishable in affluent regions. Our findings reveal how reference groups affect subjective perceptions of relative deprivation and highlight the importance of egocentric mechanisms, whereby the local economy shapes expectations of individual prospects.
Topic:: Economic Inequality, Regional Economy, Social Status, and Political Resentment
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

485. Impacts of the Artificial Intelligence on International Relations: Towards a Global Algorithms Governance

Author:: Vicente Garrido Rebolledo
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article examines the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on international relations (IR) and global governance. It begins by presenting a conceptual framework that situates AI within the theoretical and practical dimensions of IR, and explores how AI influences global power dynamics, alters state behaviour, and reshapes institutional frameworks. The study highlights the ethical and regulatory challenges of AI governance, focusing first on the efforts of the United Nations (UN), the Council of Europe and the European Union (EU). Later, the article discusses the "AI technology race" between the United States and China and their regulations. Finally, the article highlights the need for ethical and responsible AI development to foster global cooperation and address the challenges and opportunities that this technology presents in contemporary international relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, United Nations, Governance, European Union, Regulation, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, and Council of Europe
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

486. La regulación de la inteligencia artificial y la responsabilidad de los Estados en su utilización militar

Author:: Juan Manuel Rodriguez
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: El uso militar de la inteligencia artificial plantea numerosas cuestiones de orden jurídico y ético, destacando las referidas a la aplicación de normas internacionales. La complejidad de los sistemas autónomos de armas conlleva interrogantes sobre su adecuación al ordenamiento internacional, necesarios para determinar la responsabilidad por su desarrollo y empleo. Sin normas especiales que los regulen, el soporte normativo básico es el Derecho Internacional Humanitario y el Derecho Internacional de los Derechos Humanos, con problemas específicos que promueven una evolución normativa para regular estas máquinas. La responsabilidad por la vulneración de obligaciones internacionales constituye uno de los aspectos más complejos que rodean a los sistemas de inteligencia artificial. Los problemas se extienden principalmente a la atribución de la conducta, la necesidad de imponer el respeto de las normas a otros sujetos y actores, así como a la garantía de cumplimiento en el desarrollo o adquisición de estos sistemas.
Topic:: Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Warfare, and Autonomous Weapons Systems
Political Geography:: Global Focus

487. La Intersección entre Inteligencia Artificial y Armas Nucleares: Riesgos, Beneficios y Recomendaciones

Author:: Manuel Herrera
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Las innovaciones tecnológicas han sido clave en la evolución de la defensa militar, permitiendo a los Estados obtener ventajas estratégicas, como ocurrió en 1945 con la bomba atómica. Actualmente, la inteligencia artificial (IA) impulsa una revolución similar. Aunque su uso principal es civil y empresarial, varios países la están integrando en sus capacidades militares para ganar superioridad estratégica. La IA ya se emplea con éxito en drones y análisis de macrodatos, pero también comienza a aplicarse en sistemas de armamento nuclear, lo que podría tener consecuencias imprevisibles. Este artículo examina el impacto de la IA en las armas nucleares, centrándose en los sistemas de mando y control, y sus implicaciones para el equilibrio estratégico global. Se define la IA, se analiza su uso histórico en la Guerra Fría por Estados Unidos y la Unión Soviética, y se evalúan sus aplicaciones actuales. Finalmente, se proponen recomendaciones para mitigar riesgos asociados a su integración en el ámbito nuclear.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:: Global Focus

488. The militarization of artificial intelligence and the autonomous weapons

Author:: Andreas Heinz Westhues
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The rise of autonomous weapons technology in recent conflicts demonstrates the increasing militarisation of artificial intelligence. The rapid development of new technologies, such as AI-based targeting systems and autonomous weapons systems, poses significant challenges to the international community. On the one hand, there are potential threats associated with militarised artificial intelligence. On the other hand, there are ethical dilemmas related to algorithmic decision-making and legal liability. While efforts have been made over the past decade to establish a regulatory framework under the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, progress has been hampered by a small group of resistant States. However, recent regional and international conferences have indicated a growing consensus in favour of an international treaty based on a two-tier approach. This approach seeks to prohibit full autonomy and to regulate autonomous functions in weapon systems.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Regulation, Artificial Intelligence, Militarization, and Autonomous Weapons Systems
Political Geography:: Global Focus

489. Cybersecurity Implications of Quantum Computing and Its Combined Use with Artificial Intelligence

Author:: Andrea G. Rodriguez
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Quantum computing presents new market opportunities, but also significant challenges, particularly in areas such as cybersecurity. Although still in its infancy, quantum computing is maturing rapidly. If quantum computers can provide countries with new offensive capabilities - often in combination with artificial intelligence - it is arguably investment in the quantum communications agenda - in particular quantum networks - that can provide measures and actions to improve cyber defence.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Machine Learning, Encryption, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

490. A vision from China on Artificial Intelligence. Implications for Soft Power in Global Cultural Exchange

Author:: Sonia Valle, Yi Wang, and Deng Lian
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article examines China's vision of AI, its efforts to use it as a tool to promote its soft power, and the implications this has for digital diplomacy and global cultural exchange. As key findings, we highlight that through AI-powered platforms and digital diplomacy, China can adjust global narratives on sensitive issues such as human rights, economic development, and its role in global trade. China's AI expansion on the world stage serves not only as a tool for economic growth, but also as a strategic tool for enhancing its soft power. By offering technological solutions to global challenges and fostering meaningful partnerships, China is enhancing its global image as a responsible, innovative and forwardlooking actor in the international community.
Topic:: Foreign Exchange, Global South, Soft Power, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Diplomacy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

491. Unleashing AI´s Transformative Power: Reshaping Productivity, Labor Markets and Policy in the Global Economy

Author:: Antonio Serrano
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping global productivity, labour markets and regulatory landscapes. It examines AI's potential to drive innovation, optimise processes and improve decision-making, while acknowledging associated risks such as job displacement, inequality and ethical concerns. The study highlights policy approaches such as the EU AI Act, emphasising a balanced, human-centred framework. It highlights the need for interdisciplinary collaboration to balance the transformative potential of AI with equitable and sustainable growth, and advocates for adaptive governance that fosters innovation while protecting fundamental rights.
Topic:: Economy, Economic Growth, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Transformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

492. Prioritizing Patani? Indonesian Human Security Diplomacy Towards the Issue of Thailand’s Deep South Provinces

Author:: Sidik Jatmika, Zain Maulana, and Ajeng Puspa Marlinda
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This study examines the reasons for Indonesian President Jokowi's foreign policy not to prioritise human security diplomacy towards the Patani issue, specifically the acceleration of peace talks between the Thai government and representatives of the combatants from Thailand's Deep South provinces. A qualitative methodology was employed, involving 22 in-depth interviews with elite and grassroots participants from Thailand and Indonesia. These included 7 interviews with State actors and 15 with non-State actors, 4 of whom were combatants. The findings are discussed in relation to the existing literature on the diffusion and implementation of Indonesian human security diplomacy in relation to peace issues in Patani. The article argues for a more proactive and effective diplomacy including the strengthening the role of Islamic non-governmental organisations to help resolve security issues and conflicts there.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

493. The Global Terrorist Threat Forecast in 2025

Author:: Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The global terrorist threat remains persistent and pervasive as the world moves into 2025. Armed conflicts from Ukraine to Gaza and destabilisation by both State and non-State actors are redefining international stability. The influence of groups such as Islamic State, al-Qaeda and Iranian-backed militias underscores the enduring risks. Key challenges include geopolitical rivalries, radicalisation and increasingly sophisticated cyber and physical attacks. With the Middle East at the epicentre of escalating tensions and Africa emerging as a new hotspot, coordinated international efforts are essential to prevent and counter threats. States must strengthen cooperation in intelligence, security and strategic foresight to deal with a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous global landscape.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Radicalization, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Collaboration, Threat Assessment, 2023 Gaza War, Transnational Threats, and Salafi-Jihadism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

494. Europe’s next watershed – how liberal Europe should react to Trump 2.0

Author:: Fabian Zuleeg
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The return of Donald Trump to the White House and his “America first” doctrine inevitably poses a fundamental challenge for the EU. Trump’s second presidency represents a new watershed moment: the policies of the next US administration are not just likely to put Europe at a global disadvantage, they will threaten its core objectives of prosperity, sustainability, security, and democracy. This is why European countries will have to act decisively to safeguard the bloc’s unity and strengthen its autonomy in a changed world. Assuming that a second Trump administration will resemble the first would be a serious error. Trump has become more extreme in his policy positions, while facing fewer constraints and operating in a more favourable international environment. As a result, preparing for a worst-case scenario may be a wise approach. Trump’s adversarial, zero-sum approach to international trade is likely to undermine the structures and processes of multilateral economic governance. Measures such as tariffs also threaten the EU’s growth and competitiveness and risk deepening divisions within the bloc. Global progress towards greater sustainability is certain to suffer. A disengagement on behalf of the US from its leadership role in environmental and climate governance will be a significant setback in these efforts. Should the US turn away from its climate goals, this would send a strong signal to other countries that these objectives are no longer a priority. On security, any potential benefit that a Trump presidency might produce in terms of strengthening EU unity is strongly undermined by his stance on Ukraine, which is set to increase the threat facing Europe from Russia. A US-imposed ceasefire would be no guarantee of lasting peace or security for Ukraine or for Europe. In response, the EU and its members will have to take a much bolder and more proactive role, sharply increasing Europe’s own military capabilities and spending. Policies that signal a tolerance for the use of open and covert force, in violation of international law, will also have profound consequences for global security. Far-right and anti-democratic forces within Europe are likely to be emboldened by an incoming Trump government. His actions to exploit Europe’s political divides are set to put significant pressure on European integration – a project Trump will have no qualms in undermining. The entrenchment and normalisation of Trump’s style of populistic, divisive politics and ‘us against them’ rhetoric risks eroding democratic debate more broadly. His amplification of falsehoods and disinformation will undermine public trust in the US and beyond, and could also boost political figures adopting similar strategies in Europe. There is strong potential for Trump’s anti-establishment narrative to gain further ground in Europe, and Europe’s illiberal, regressive and new-nativist forces will no doubt seek to harness this to increase their power. Should they be successful, there is a very real risk of the EU becoming hollowed-out and ineffectual. In this context, achieving consensus and acting with unity will be a greater challenge than ever for the EU27. Those within the EU who are prepared to take the necessary steps to rise to the challenge posed by Trump may have to explore unconventional forms of cooperation to act effectively. Moving forward in this way poses its own legal and political risks. But with European democracy at stake, it may be the only path to achieving the necessary level of ambition and unity to mount a strong response to Trump 2.0.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Donald Trump, Sustainability, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Europe

495. Building Economic Security into Europe’s Clean Energy Agenda: Eight Recommendations for Europe’s Net-Zero Course Correction

Author:: Pawel Swieboda, Georg Riekeles, and Simon Dekeyrel
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: A European consensus may still exist on the end goal of climate neutrality, yet there is no such consensus on the political, economic and social choices required to reach it. Each possible pathway carries a distinct set of costs and trade-offs across the energy trilemma of sustainability, affordability and security. An excessively benign reading of the international environment, political and economic negligence and a lack of sufficient action on key parameters of the trilemma have put Europe on a decarbonisation trajectory of high prices and low security. This has become increasingly untenable. The long-term reliance on Russian natural gas was a fateful symptom of this predicament but is not a stand-alone example. Europe’s situation is currently aggravated by a series of equations that do not compute, with targets being set not matched by the required efforts and investments across core areas of Europe’s ambitions, such as wind, hydrogen, nuclear, net-zero manufacturing and energy efficiency. Europe is, consequently, on paths towards endpoints that are inconsistent with the EU’s Fit for 55 and 2040 climate scenarios. All too often, the EU’s energy choices have been an outcome of inner-EU compromises, rather than a reflection of the long-term strategic approach. All this is happening in a stormy international environment, with President Trump abandoning international cooperation and climate ambitions while China’s overcapacities are taking global economic relations to the brink. Consequences are bound to be dire. Unless yearly energy system investments can be significantly ramped up, suggestions that Europe can no longer pursue its 2050 net-zero objective at the expense of cost competitiveness and economic security will only get stronger. Europe should not abandon its net-zero ambitions, but a significant course correction is required. Building on the former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s call for a joint approach to decarbonisation and competitiveness and adding an economic security perspective, this paper proposes eight recommendations for Europe’s net-zero course correction. We argue that the best course of action for Europe is to gain ‘escape velocity’ on the green transition: prioritising cost-effective investments in clean industry and energy infrastructure, which are essential to enable a transition to clean energy. While the competitiveness debate tends to focus on the more immediate ways of activating growth, economic security encompasses a broader, forward looking framework that emphasises resilience. This includes managing risks, reducing dependencies, and preparing for potential disruptions. Staying on track toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 must remain Europe’s overarching objective, coupled with a parallel goal of optimising economic value-creation and reducing the cost, uncertainty and risks of the energy transition. EIGHT RECOMMENDATIONS FOR EUROPE’S NET-ZERO COURSE CORRECTION Prioritise and coordinate large-scale investments to achieve ‘escape velocity’ in the energy transition. Set realistic targets and priorities using foresight and analysis recognising the interdependencies between policy levers at EU and national levels. Double down on electrification through proactive technology-neutral supply policies, grid investment, strategic industrial policy and enabling frameworks. Elaborate and implement a dedicated ‘masterplan for energy system flexibility, grid investment and energy storage’. Anchor the Clean Industrial Deal on an ‘economic security yardstick’ involving strategic funding for European ecosystems, enabling infrastructure and necessary shielding. Factor in nuclear power investments as an essential component in Europe’s net-zero scenario. Strengthen single market coordination, price differentiation and investment incentives while expanding long-term contractual solutions. Develop a comprehensive energy system risk management approach.
Topic:: Renewable Energy, Carbon Emissions, Economic Security, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: Europe

496. How to Spend It: European defence for the age of mass precision

Author:: Chris Kremidas-Courtney
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Europe urgently needs to redefine its defence strategy in response to the United States’ growing disengagement from its transatlantic allies. The suspension of US military assistance to Ukraine and calls for increased European self-reliance have forced policymakers to rapidly reassess how to sustain collective security. The European Union’s ReArm EU plan seeks to mobilise €800 billion in national defence spending to meet these challenges, but investments must be made wisely to prepare for future warfare. Modern warfare has entered into an era of mass precision, where forces can achieve the effects of massed firepower through distributed, AI-enabled, and highly accurate weapons systems. Ukraine’s innovative use of drone swarms and precision strikes against Russian forces has demonstrated this shift. China and the US are also leveraging mass precision to reshape the battlefield, making traditional mass-based warfare increasingly obsolete. However, while armoured vehicles, fighter jets, and ships require new protections, they remain essential when integrated into networked, distributed operations. To prepare for this new strategic reality, Europe must: Invest in mass precision and distributed operations – Prioritise drone warfare, deep-strike capabilities, and networked operations. Accelerate investment in the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) programme to develop long-range cruise missiles. Build a European command-and-control (C2) system – Reduce reliance on NATO’s US-centric C2 infrastructure. Strengthen Europe’s intelligence capabilities and decision support – Expand European satellite and cyber capabilities and expand analytical capacities. Strengthen air and missile defence – Accelerate the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) and deploy cost effective countermeasures such as more cost effective laser-based systems. Build a European military logistics system – Ensure the ability to sustain forces and ensure rapid troop and equipment mobility within Europe. Train and exercise European forces at scale – Conduct large-scale joint exercises to build readiness. Buy Ukrainian – Integrate Ukrainian defence firms into EU supply chains. Buy European – Reduce dependence on US arms while leveraging UK, Norwegian, Canadian and Turkish defence industries. Build a European nuclear umbrella – France and the UK should explore extended deterrence options to protect all European allies in case of further US withdrawal. Build a European blue-water navy – Strengthen and expand European naval capabilities to protect vital sea lanes in addition to supporting territorial defence. Winning the next war, not the last one Europe can no longer afford slow, bureaucratic and fragmented defence spending—it must accelerate, integrate and innovate in order to defend itself in the event that the United States is unable or unwilling to do so. We don’t just need bigger budgets—we need a better strategy. The future of warfare is mass precision and distributed operations, enabled by AI, and supported by capabilities that enable decision, cyber and information dominance. If Europe invests wisely, it can be a technologically advanced, resilient and autonomous military power while remaining a robust pillar of NATO’s collective security. The hour of Europe is now.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Weapons, Disengagement, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

497. The e-commerce challenge: Is importing low-value consignments going to become more cumbersome in the EU and the US?

Author:: Anna Jerzewska
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In the last few months, terms such as e-commerce and de minimis (threshold below which imported goods are not subject to tariffs) have made headlines both in the EU and in the US. The rapid growth of e-commerce exacerbated problems with this exemption both in the US and in the EU. The first problem is lack of control. Only a percentage of commercial goods are subject to physical border checks, and for e-commerce goods this number is even smaller. Then there is the issue of endangering the level-playing field. De minimis benefits consumers and businesses that rely on it, but harms domestic manufacturers and retail outlets that import in bulk (and thus are subject to full customs and product standards and safety requirements). But can the challenges around the rapid growth of e-commerce be solved by the removal of de minimis? And what would be the consequences of removing the exemption? The paper summarises recent attempts and proposals of removing de minimis in the EU and the US and the challenges faced by both administrations. In both cases, e-commerce is still under discussion and it’s not clear what the final solution will look like. However, there are already noticeable differences in approach.
Topic:: European Union, Trade, Imports, and E-Commerce
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

498. Biopower: Securing American Leadership in Biotechnology

Author:: Vivek Chilukuri and Hannah Kelley
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The biorevolution is upon us. Converging breakthroughs in biological sequencing, engineering biology, and machine learning are ushering in an almost science fiction–like world in which humans can manipulate and even design the building blocks of life with increasing sophistication—for good or ill. In this world, cutting-edge biotechnologies will create organs, capture carbon emissions, restore polluted environments, tailor medicines to a person’s genes, and replace vulnerable supply chains for food, fuel, fabrics, and firepower with domestic biobased alternatives. According to one estimate, existing biotechnologies could have a direct economic impact of $4 trillion a year for the next 20 years.1 As innovation continues, the ceiling could be far higher. If next-generation biotechnologies hold great promise, they also come with gathering perils from new bioweapons, intrusive biosurveillance, and the race for biotechnology breakthroughs without adequate safeguards for public health, the environment, and democratic values. For policymakers, the question is not whether the biorevolution has transformative power, but which nation will responsibly harness that power to unlock new tools for defense, health, manufacturing, food security, environmental remediation, and the fight against climate change. No country is better positioned to lead the biorevolution than the United States, but it requires that policymakers act now with swift, ambitious, and far-sighted steps to secure America’s place as the global biopower. The United States enters the biorevolution with formidable tailwinds—an unrivaled innovation ecosystem, world-leading research institutes, unmatched private investment, talent, and a global network of democratic partners and allies. Recent federal investments and an emerging policy framework have fortified U.S. leadership. But in this fast-moving field, settling for gradual progress will guarantee falling behind as competitors like China race to eclipse the United States with ambitions to scale up their biotechnology research, innovation, talent, and infrastructure. To secure America’s place as the global biopower, the Trump administration and Congress should accelerate U.S. tailwinds through greater investment in biotechnology research and infrastructure, especially in sectors beyond health and medicine; expand the pipeline of biotalent; and lead globally to drive biotechnology norms, standards-setting, and responsible adoption. At the same time, policymakers must navigate headwinds that could imperil further progress—specifically, an underdeveloped national biomanufacturing infrastructure; insufficient public and private investment that flows overwhelmingly to biotechnology research and development (R&D) in the health and medical sectors; a lack of uniform federal standards, definitions, and codes; a morass of conflicting policies and regulations; inaccessible and insecure biodata; and low public awareness and trust in emerging and ethically fraught biotechnology applications. This report outlines several recommendations to shore up America’s position as the preeminent biopower, including an investment of $20 billion in new federal funding. Policymakers should view this level of investment as the floor of what it will require to secure U.S. biotechnology leadership. Cutting-edge biotechnologies will create organs, capture carbon emissions, restore polluted environments, tailor medicines to a person’s genes, and replace vulnerable supply chains for food, fuel, fabrics, and firepower with domestic biobased alternatives. Regardless of what U.S. policymakers do, countries around the world are moving swiftly to embrace the biorevolution. The United Kingdom (UK) is driving innovation by concentrating and sharing its biodata through the UK Biobank, which houses the fully sequenced genetic codes of 500,000 people.2 France has invested roughly $9.5 billion through Innovation Santé 2030 to drive biomedical research.3 Japan has committed $3 billion to promote its biotechnology ecosystem.4 South Korea is carving out a niche in digital biotechnology and aims to transition 30 percent of its manufacturing industry to biomanufacturing within a decade.5 If any nation can surpass the United States as the global biopower, it will be China. In its most recent five-year plans, Beijing made explicit its ambition to become a biotechnology “superpower.” It is well on its way. China’s biotechnology leadership has surged on the back of significant public investment, long-term policy prioritization, a massive domestic market, decades of largely unrestricted capital flows, and the amassing of biodata through licit and illicit means.6 China’s concerted biotechnology push has already paid dividends: its scholars rank second in the world for authoring biomedical papers, and the country leads high-impact research in biofuels and biomanufacturing. China’s high-impact research in synthetic biology is more than triple that of the United States, posing a high risk of monopolization.7 Today, China is a global biomanufacturing powerhouse that exports roughly 40 percent of the world’s active pharmaceutical ingredients.8 Now, China aspires to move up the biotechnology value chain with a renewed push to support start-ups, integrate its vast biodata with cutting-edge machine learning tools, and dominate emerging markets for biotechnology with “national champions” such as BGI Group and WuXi Biologics, as it did with Huawei and 5G. China’s ambition to close the gap with the United States should inspire action from policymakers to secure and extend America’s lead. To that end, this report outlines a series of immediate and longer-term recommendations in six key areas for leaders in policymaking and industry.
Topic:: Leadership, Innovation, and Biotechnology
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

499. Averting AI Armageddon: U.S.-China-Russia Rivalry at the Nexus of Nuclear Weapons and Artificial Intelligence

Author:: Jacob Stokes, Colin H. Kahl, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, and Nicholas Lokker
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: In recent years, the previous bipolar nuclear order led by the United States and Russia has given way to a more volatile tripolar one, as China has quantitatively and qualitatively built up its nuclear arsenal. At the same time, there have been significant breakthroughs in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, including for military applications. As a result of these two trends, understanding the AI-nuclear nexus in the context of U.S.-China-Russia geopolitical competition is increasingly urgent. There are various military use cases for AI, including classification models, analytic and predictive models, generative AI, and autonomy. Given that variety, it is necessary to examine the AI-nuclear nexus across three broad categories: nuclear command, control, and communications; structural elements of the nuclear balance; and entanglement of AI-enabled conventional systems with nuclear risks. While each of these categories has the potential to generate risk, this report argues that the degree of risk posed by a particular case depends on three major factors: the role of humans, the degree to which AI systems become a single point of failure, and the AI offense-defense balance. As Russia and China increasingly aim to modernize their nuclear arsenals and integrate AI into their militaries, it is essential for policymakers to be aware of the risks posed by the AI-nuclear nexus. Dealing with China and Russia on issues at this nexus is likely to be difficult in the current diplomatic and military context, characterized by increasingly strained bilateral relationships between the United States and both China and Russia, along with an uptick in coordination between Beijing and Moscow. Nonetheless, there are still various steps that U.S. policymakers could take to bolster deterrence and stability with respect to these issues. These include: building knowledge and competency around issues at the AI-nuclear nexus; integrating AI into diplomatic initiatives related to nuclear and other strategic risks, and vice versa; establishing and promoting norms for the safe use of AI in relation to nuclear arsenals and other strategic capabilities; developing policy and technical criteria for assessing exactly how and when to keep humans in the loop on all nuclear-related processes; including AI technologies as a factor in oversight and reviews of the U.S. nuclear arsenal; investing in AI-enabled cyber and space capabilities to enhance defense and resilience, reduce incentives to attack those areas, and mitigate entanglement risks; consulting closely with U.S. allies about how AI will shape extended deterrence calculations related to both nuclear and conventional capabilities; and pursuing a comprehensive set of risk reduction and crisis management mechanisms with China and Russia while recognizing the obstacles to progress. Failing to take these steps could leave the country and the world dangerously exposed to risks and ill-prepared to seize any opportunities arising from the increasingly salient AI-nuclear nexus.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

500. Assessing China’s Nuclear Decision-Making: Three Analytical Lenses

Author:: Jacob Stokes
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: China’s rapid nuclear buildup is raising questions about how the country makes decisions related to nuclear weapons. This policy brief analyzes that trend by presenting three overarching analytical lenses, or categories of factors, that shape Beijing’s nuclear decision-making: leadership, weapons systems and military organizations, and official policies and doctrine. On leadership, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping likely sees nuclear weapons granting prestige and growing in relevance, but his views on nuclear weapons’ efficacy are less clear. On weapons systems and military organizations, the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal provides the country’s leaders with new options, which could shift those leaders’ intentions over time. Implementation of those options, though, runs through often-corrupt People’s Liberation Army military organizations. On official policies and doctrine, Beijing possibly sees its professed stance as a country that does not engage in U.S.- and Russian-style arms buildups as a source of diplomatic influence, particularly in the developing world or Global South. Separately, the circumstances where China’s nuclear no-first-use policy would face a true test—for example, during a major Taiwan contingency—are precisely the moments when Beijing would have massive incentives to selectively interpret or simply abandon that policy. In the near term, China’s official nuclear weapons policies will likely stay the same, so the gap between rhetoric and action will grow. A bigger arsenal and more nuclear rhetoric and signaling will, over time, also shape future Chinese coercion campaigns. In response, U.S. policymakers should commission an intelligence assessment of Xi’s views of specific nuclear crises, pressure China to issue more explanation of its nuclear policies and capabilities, and expand information sharing about missile tests on a reciprocal basis. U.S. policymakers should also make an authoritative policy statement on what would constitute China reaching nuclear parity with the United States and counter China’s nuclear buildup using both conventional and nuclear capabilities.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS