Publishing Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy / Political Geography: United States / Topic: Security

1. U.S. Strategic Dialogues with Morocco and Algeria: Take Two

Author:: Vish Sakthivel
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Secretary Kerry's visit comes amid Morocco's efforts to expand its regional influence and an upcoming vote in Algeria. Next week, Secretary of State John Kerry will head to Rabat and Algiers to reconvene the Strategic Dialogues that were postponed in November when he had to travel to Geneva for urgent Iran negotiations. While the broader themes to be discussed remain the same, certain developments in the two countries' diplomatic positioning will likewise inform the talks.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Morocco

2. Yemen's Forever War: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

Author:: Christopher Boucek
Publication Date:: 07-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is not the biggest problem -- or even the biggest security challenge -- facing the Yemeni government, the United States and much of the international community still place it above other issues. Successful counterterrorism is directly linked to state stability. If Yemen becomes a failed state within the next few decades, U.S. counterterrorism objectives would be decisively undermined. The challenge for U.S. policy is finding a way to bolster the struggle against AQAP without exacerbating other aspects of Yemen's overlapping security, economic, and political crises.
Topic:: Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Yemen, and Arab Countries

3. Quds Day in Iran: Velvet Revolution Trumps Nuclear Negotiations

Author:: Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While the United States is concentrating on the G-20 summit and the October 1 meeting with the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Iranian attention has been focused on the potentially destabilizing protests planned for September 18, Quds Day. This critical difference of agenda -- with Iran focused more on its domestic turmoil than on simmering international issues -- will be a major complicating factor in negotiations between the international community and Iran in the coming weeks.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, International Cooperation, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States and Iran

4. PolicyWatch #1383: Domestic and Regional Politics Delay U.S.-Iraqi Security Agreement

Author:: Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While experts negotiate the technical aspects of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) -- an arrangement that would govern future security relations between Iraq and the United States -- Iraqi politicians are engaged in a rhetorical campaign against such an agreement, making it nearly impossible to finalize a deal by this summer. Meanwhile, the escalating debate now includes Iraq's neighbors, with top Iranian officials expressing their opposition to any kind of security arrangement.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

5. Fighting Terrorism: A Chance to Improve Bilateral U.S.-Turkish Ties

Author:: Selahattin Ibas
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, led all countries to assess the threat of terrorism and generate new perspectives on countering it. This is necessarily a global effort. Even when terrorist activity is executed in a single country, the preparatory training, planning, directing, financing, and logistical support are conducted in several.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States and Turkey

6. The Mecca Accord (Part II): Implications for Arabs, Israel, and U.S. Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Fatah-Hamas unity agreement reached in Mecca last week has powerful implications for all regional players. The most serious challenge it poses is to U.S. diplomacy.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Mecca

7. Making the Lebanon Ceasefire Work: Security Requirements and Implications for an International Force

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt, Emile El-Hokayem, and Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Daniel Christman
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 23, 2006, Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Daniel Christman, Emile El-Hokayem, and Michael Eisenstadt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Christman is senior vice president for international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and previously served as assistant to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Emile El-Hokayem is a Middle East analyst at the Henry L. Stimson Center. Michael Eisenstadt is director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States and Washington

8. The Confused Security Situation in Iraq: Some Less Publicized Units

Author:: Cecile Zwiebach
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While U.S. and coalition forces—and increasingly the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF)—struggle to defeat the Sunni insurgency in Iraq, they are also dealing with a range of armed groups that complicate the security scenario. Militias and ad hoc units with different levels of government sanction are growing in strength, and the training of the ISF is progressing unevenly. While it is not possible to conduct a comprehensive survey of both independent groups and ISF units, a sampling of less publicized units illustrates how diffuse military power in Iraq has become.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

9. As UN Ceasefire Resolutions Loom, Diplomatic Gaps Remain

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As diplomacy to end hostilities between Israel and Lebanon intensifies at the United Nations, with a first resolution passed perhaps on Monday, conceptual gaps between the parties remain. The differences range from substantive to procedural. France has been at the center of diplomacy surrounding the passage of a UN Security Council resolution, since it is expected to lead the multinational force to southern Lebanon. From the outset of its consultations with the United States, which are at the center of UN diplomacy, France has sought two Security Council resolutions; this plan has won the backing of U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice. The first resolution would declare an immediate ceasefire and establish general principles to guide the period after the ceasefire. The second resolution would, among other things, define the scope and mission of the multinational force.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, France, and Lebanon

10. Israel and Hizballah at War: A Status Report

Author:: David Schenker, Dennis Ross, and Moshe Yaalon
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 19, 2006, Brig. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, David Schenker, and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Schenker, a senior fellow in Arab politics at the Institute, served until 2005 as Levant country director of the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

11. Iranian Azeris: A Giant Minority

Author:: Ali M. Koknar
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recently in Iran, tens of thousands of Iranian Azeris took to the streets for several days of demonstrations touched off by the May 12 publication of a racist cartoon in the state-run Iran newspaper. (The cartoon depicted an Azeri-speaking cockroach.) Iranian security forces cracked down violently on the demonstrators, killing at least four people (Azeri nationalists claim twenty dead), injuring forty-three, and detaining hundreds of others. These developments indicate brewing discontent among Iran's Azeri population and should be studied for their implications for U.S. and Western policy toward Tehran.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Tehran

12. Mr. Olmert Goes to Washington: Prospects for U.S.-Israel Relations

Author:: David Makovsky and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ehud Olmert is proposing a plan to withdraw 60,000 settlers from the West Bank and consolidate Israel's borders. His reasoning is that these settlers have been in limbo for thirty-nine years. He does not want their presence in the West Bank to jeopardize Israel's democratic nature, nor to use them as human bargaining chips in negotiations. He is looking at the issue from the perspective of security instead of ideology.
Topic:: Security, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, and Israel

13. Assessing the Iranian Nuclear Threat with Reference to Pakistan's Experience

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 30, the Sunday Times of London reported that Israeli Mossad chief Meir Dagan had warned U.S. officials during a secret visit to Washington of covert Iranian plans for enriching uranium, which may mean Tehran was "nearer to acquiring nuclear weapons than widely believed." The same report quoted Knesset Foreign and Defense Committee chairman Yuval Steinitz as saying that Iran might be only a year from developing a bomb. Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director-general and Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohammed ElBaradei is on the record as saying that, once Iran can enrich uranium in quantity, making an actual bomb would only take "a few months." And, in August 2005, the Washington Post reported that the new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate "projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing [sufficient highly enriched uranium] for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years." In such circumstances it is small wonder if the public is confused, wondering whether some officials are exaggerating the potential danger of a nuclear-armed Iran while others seem to be almost irresponsibly unconcerned. In fact, the statements above are not mutually inconsistent, reflecting instead the discrepancy between hard fact and plausible interpretation. Since Iran's controversial uranium enrichment technology was initially acquired from Pakistan, an examination of that country's progress toward a nuclear bomb is both worthwhile and illuminating.
Topic:: Security and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Tehran

14. Reinforcing Lebanon's Sovereignty

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The United States has been lobbying the UN Security Council to pass a new resolution about reinforcing Lebanon's sovereignty, building on the October 25, 2005, report by UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen on the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. That resolution, adopted on September 2, 2004, called for the disbanding and disarmament of all militias in Lebanon, the extension of Lebanese government control over all Lebanese territory, and the strict respect of Lebanese sovereignty. Important as each might be in light of recent developments, the Resolution 1559 requirements are closely interconnected.
Topic:: Security, Sovereignty, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

15. The Countdown for Bashar al-Asad and Lebanon

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 25, 2005, Lebanese journalist May Chidiac nearly lost her life in yet another car bomb attack on prominent Lebanese figures who are critical of Syria. Led by German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis, the international commission charged with investigating the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri is expected to issue a report on its findings to the UN Security Council on October 21. Many Lebanese fear that during the countdown to the report, which reportedly may implicate senior Syrian officials in Hariri's assassination, Syria and its allies in Lebanon might try to destabilize the country in an act of retribution against the Lebanese opposition and the "ungrateful" country.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

16. Al-Qaeda's North African Franchise: The GSPC Regional Threat

Author:: Emily Hunt
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 29, Algerians will vote on President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's proposed Charter for Peace and National Reconciliation, a policy that would provide amnesty for most of the one-thousand Islamic terrorists the government believes are still hiding in Algeria and neighboring countries. Between three hundred and five hundred of the terrorists still at large belong to the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC). This cadre of Afghanistan-trained, al-Qaeda-linked militants was behind the September 24 ambush of a police patrol east of Algiers that killed eight people. These holdouts have shown no interest in a government amnesty, despite the Algerian population's clearly waning interest in Islamist-inspired political violence.
Topic:: Security, Peace Studies, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and North Africa

17. The Black Sea Basin: A New Axis in Global Maritime Security

Author:: Orhan Babaoglu
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Black Sea Naval Cooperation Task Group (BLACKSEAFOR), a regional maritime security initiative started by Turkey in 2001, was activated August 14-27. With world attention devoted to Iraq and the Middle East, important developments in the nearby Black Sea region involving energy politics, frozen conflicts, and new regional security initiatives have gone mostly unnoticed. The Black Sea is a stable but complex basin with vast economic resources and strategic importance as a medium for energy transportation. Is the Black Sea a bridge or a barrier between United States and Turkey? Does the issue of Black Sea security provide an opportunity to mend deteriorated relations or a new source of friction?
Topic:: International Relations, Security, NATO, and Cold War
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

18. Deciphering the Bush-Abbas Press Conference

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President George W. Bush welcomed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to the White House Thursday with an unprecedented shower of diplomatic, political, and financial support. Most media attention has focused on two high-profile signs of U.S. backing of Abbas -- Bush's bold characterization of his guest as a "man of courage" and the dispatch of $50 million in direct assistance to the PA. As constructive as these messages were in bolstering the new Palestinian leader, little attention has been given to several other surprising messages Bush delivered -- both by omission and commission -- that could rebound against the administration's twin objectives of strengthening Palestinian democracy and advancing the vision of "two states living side by side in peace and security."
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

19. From Crawford to Gaza: Countdown to Disengagement

Author:: Michael Herzog and Dennis Rose
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 7, 2005, Dennis Ross, Michael Herzog, and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Ross is the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, former U.S. Middle East peace envoy, and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace (Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2004). Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Brig.-Gen. Herzog, a visiting military fellow at the Institute, was formerly the senior military aide to the defense minister and a peace negotiator. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks; David Makovsky's remarks served as the basis for PeaceWatch no. 498.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Gaza, and Arab Countries

20. Preventing Iran and Hizballah from Filling the Void in Lebanon

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The March 8 mass rally in Beirut, organized by Hizballah to counter the popular Lebanese opposition movement, serves as a reminder that establishing genuine freedom and democracy in Lebanon will require more than a Syrian withdrawal. Whereas the opposition, backed by strong international and regional sentiment, focuses on rejecting Syria's occupation, Hizballah focuses on rejecting international interference in Lebanese affairs. Yet, if Iran and Hizballah are permitted to fill the void created by a Syrian departure, Lebanon will continue to be subjected to such foreign interference. Such a development would also increase the potential for escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli front, with possible regional spillover. Accordingly, while encouraging the ongoing historic events in Lebanon and pushing for an end to Syrian domination, the international community should not neglect two other key implications of UN Security Council Resolution 1559: ending the Iranian presence and disarming Hizballah.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria

21. Banning Hizballah TV in America

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Avi Jorisch
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Seeking to prevent terror propaganda and incitement to terror in America, the U.S. government added al-Manar (Arabic for "the beacon"), the official television mouthpiece of Hizballah, or the Lebanese Party of God, to the Terrorism Exclusion List (TEL). By designating the network as a terrorist organization the government will effectively take Hizballah television off the air in the United States by denying entry to its employees and to anyone who supports the network.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries

22. Carrots for Iran? Lessons from Libya

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As European and Iranian officials began negotiations December 14 on whether to make permanent Iran's temporary suspension of uranium enrichment, eight former Western foreign ministers issued a joint statement calling on Washington to support the European efforts by engaging with Iran. There is a growing chorus claiming that Iran will keep its nuclear program suspended only if offered significant incentives by the United States, such as security guarantees, an end to hostility, or at least normal relations.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, America, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Libya, and Arab Countries

23. Saudi Stability in the Shadow of the U.S. Consulate Attack in Jeddah

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The December 6 terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in the Saudi port city of Jeddah, which killed five non-American staff members, was a worrisome display of al-Qaeda's careful planning, detailed timing, and audaciousness. Worse still, the assault contradicts Riyadh's claims that it has contained the threat of terrorism. The incident, which comes at a time of persistent high oil prices, has only exacerbated concerns about some of the most senior members of the ruling al-Saud family with regard to their health and ability to govern.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

24. U.S.-Turkish Cooperation against New Maritime Threats in the Mediterranean Basin

Author:: Orhan Babaoglu
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On November 23, 2004, Gen. James Jones, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, praised Operation Active Endeavour (OAE) for its role on the war on terror. OAE is NATO's post-September 11 answer to the question of naval security in the Mediterranean Sea. With the threat of terrorism on the open waters gaining increasing attention, especially in the aftermath of the 2000 USS Cole bombing in Yemen and the September 11 attacks, the Mediterranean basin (including the Black Sea) has become a new focal point for policymakers. The basin lies between three dangerous conflict areas -- the Middle East, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. Moreover, as a passageway between developed and underdeveloped nations, with access to three strategically important sea passages -- Gibraltar in the west, the Suez Canal in the south, and the Turkish Straits in the north -- the Mediterranean gives terrorists, human traffickers, and drug and arms smugglers easy access to the long and difficult to patrol coastlines of Europe. Is the West doing an adequate job of confronting the new threats in the Mediterranean? What role does the U.S.-Turkish alliance play in this enterprise?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Yemen, Arab Countries, and Balkans

25. Establishing a National Intelligence Director: Directing U.S. Intelligence Efforts in the Post-September 11 Era

Author:: Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After an extended absence from public view, Osama bin Laden reappeared in video excerpts aired on al-Jazeera several days before the November 2 election, issuing warnings to the U.S. public about al-Qaeda's intention to continue striking the United States. The incident raises new questions about the extent to which bin Laden is directing terrorist operatives and operations. In recent months, many experts have opined that he is no longer in complete control, and that the groups affiliated with al-Qaeda are operating more independently, with bin Laden's organization serving predominately as a source of inspiration.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries

26. Judgment Day: The Second Battle of Falluja

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Coalition and Iraqi government forces are moving to retake Falluja from insurgents who have held the city since April 2004. On the evening of November 8, U.S. troops with large-scale air support began to penetrate at several points, encountering some resistance. The coalition and the Iraqi government are gambling that they can break the insurgents hold on the city with acceptable losses and without a protracted battle. The insurgents are hoping to avoid annihilation, inflict embarrassing losses, create an image of wanton destruction by the coalition and government forces, and force an inconclusive end to the fighting. Indeed, Falluja has become a kind of "Stalingrad on the Euphrates" -- a city imbued with political, military, and symbolic consequence, and a battle whose outcome will have long-term implications.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

27. The Iraqi Security Forces (Part I): Background and Current Status

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The counterinsurgency in Iraq has entered a critical phase: the start of operations by U.S.-led coalition and Iraqi forces to pacify insurgent-held areas, smoothing the way for January 2005 elections. In recent weeks, coalition and Iraqi forces have battled insurgents in Tal Afar, Samarra, Mahmudiya, and Latifiya, as well as Sadr City and Haifa Street in Baghdad. They now appear to be preparing to move against Falluja, which has been described by some U.S. officials as the "center of gravity" of the Sunni insurgency.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

28. Islam, Islamists, and U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:: Martin Kramer and Gilles Kepel
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: During the Cold War, Washington reached out to some Islamists in order to counter the Soviet threat. Some claim that engaging so-called "moderate" Islamists would serve U.S. interests today. But in any U.S.-Islamist dialogue, the Islamists are certain to demand concessions from the United States, including visas, freedom to raise money for their organizations, U.S. support for their participation in the politics of their home countries, and a reassessment of U.S. policy in the Middle East, including support for Israel. In return, Islamists would propose to condemn terrorist attacks against the United States, and discourage new attacks on American soil.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Soviet Union, and Arab Countries

29. Elections in Saudi Arabia: Assessing the Latest Postponement

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, scheduled to begin in November, have been postponed until 2005. Given that these will be the first public political elections ever to take place in the kingdom, their introduction has been keenly watched, both domestically and from abroad. The latest delay, the second since the original announcement in 2003, indicates that the Saudi royal family is divided over the present usefulness of the sort of broadened political participation that the United States considers vital to combating the militant Islamism of al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden. No official reason was given for the change, which was reported on September 12 as being a rescheduling rather than a postponement.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

30. China and Oil: The Middle East Dimension

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Rapidly growing Chinese oil demand was one of the key factors influencing discussions at this week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), convened in Vienna by ministers from OPEC member states. During the first eight months of 2004, Chinese oil imports surged by 40 percent compared with the same period in 2003, contributing to the rapid rise in oil prices during the summer. China, the world's most populous nation, knows its economic growth must be fueled by oil imports, with the Middle East serving as the principal source. Accordingly, Beijing has begun to make energy security a priority, mounting a campaign to build improved commercial and diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern states. These efforts will entail increased competition with U.S. influence in the region.
Topic:: Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, China, Middle East, and Arab Countries

31. Implications of U.S. Dependence on Middle East Oil

Author:: Dov Zakheim
Publication Date:: 07-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The subject of energy and oil dependence should be at the top of the U.S. national security agenda. There are several reasons for concern. First, the world demand for oil is growing rapidly. Chinese and Indian development alone will push oil consumption up in the near future. The middle class in India, for instance, although not yet reaching the American standard of living, is approximately the size of the population of the United States and will be in the market for cars in the next five to ten years.
Topic:: Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

32. The PKK's New Offensive: Implications for Turkey, Iraqi Kurds, and the United States

Author:: Soner Cagaptay and Ali Koknar
Publication Date:: 06-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 1, 2004, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) -- an organization that appears on the State Department's list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations and whose attacks caused more than 30,000 deaths in Turkey during the 1980s and 1990s -- declared that it had rescinded its unilateral "ceasefire" of February 2000. This declaration was quickly followed by an escalation of violence in southeastern Turkey. This development poses a threat to Turkey's internal security and to the European Union reform process that began after Ankara apprehended PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan in February 1999. Ocalan's capture led to a drop in PKK violence and a relaxation in the country's political environment, catalyzing reforms on the Kurdish issue that had previously been deemed impossible (see PolicyWatch no. 786).
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

33. Muqtada al-Sadr's Continuing Challenge to the Coalition (Part I): The U.S. Military Response

Author:: Jeffrey White and Ryan Phillips
Publication Date:: 06-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Muqtada al-Sadr represents a serious long-term political and military challenge to the coalition and the new Iraqi government. Open warfare between Sadr and the coalition first emerged on April 4, 2004, with "uprisings" by his militia, the so-called Mahdi Army, in Baghdad and across southern Iraq. Although Sadr has not achieved his objective of a broad-based Shi'i rebellion, coalition forces have not been able to bring him to justice or dissolve his militia. Both sides are now playing a high-stakes game. The coalition is betting that it can eliminate or reduce Sadr as a political force without causing a serious breach with the larger Shi'i community. Sadr is gambling that he can persist, even prosper, in the face of the coalition. Indeed, he has long-term political goals and is positioning himself for the upcoming elections. The prospects that the coalition can bring him under control at acceptable cost and risk remain uncertain.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

34. NATO, Iraq, and the Greater Middle East: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Relationship

Author:: Egemen Bagis
Publication Date:: 05-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: For years, the Turkish Cypriots have been blamed for the Cyprus issue. Nevertheless, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan personally convinced UN secretary general Kofi Annan to open the fourth round of negotiations, and Rauf Denktas, president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, was much more productive in these talks than was the Greek Cypriot leader. The conclusions emerging from the Annan Plan negotiations were the best obtainable result, even though they did not address all Turkish priorities. According to the plan, the Greek and Turkish Cypriots each submitted the plan's proposals to a separate referendum. Yet, only the Turkish Cypriot leadership stood behind its word and asked for a "yes" vote. With this, the Turkish Cypriots sent the message that they were ready to integrate into the international community. Unfortunately, the Greek Cypriot leadership backed off of its support for the agreement, and the Greek Cypriots consequently rejected the plan in their referendum. The European Union (EU) had promised Greek Cypriot accession regardless of their referendum result, however, and on May 1, Greek Cyprus entered the EU while the Turkish side remains unfairly punished by international sanctions. The destiny of the Turkish Cypriots should not rest in the hands of the Greek Cypriots, and the world has begun to recognize this. Now, lifting the sanctions on the Turkish Cyprus is Turkey's priority.
Topic:: Security, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Cyprus

35. Relying on the Saudis: The Challenge for U.S. Oil Policy

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the past week, oil prices have exceeded $40 per barrel for the first time since the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and gasoline prices in parts of the United States are now more $2 per gallon. Contributing to this increase were heightened concerns about supply, particularly in the wake of a May 1 terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter. Two Americans and three other Westerners were killed in the attack, and the body of one of the victims was dragged through the streets behind the terrorists' vehicle. Following the incident, the U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia urged Americans to leave the kingdom.
Topic:: Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia

36. Setting Realistic Expectations for Iraq's Security Forces

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 04-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Faced with both the Muqtada al-Sadr uprising and intense fighting in Ramadi and Fallujah, Washington announced that it will hold the number of U.S. forces in Iraq at the current level of 134,000 by delaying plans to withdraw some troops during the current rotation. The announcement is a recognition that Iraqi security forces are not yet able to handle civil emergencies and armed resistance on the scale being seen in central and southern Iraq. These forces have been sorely tested in recent incidents; the Iraqi Police Service (IPS) failed to warn about the attack on U.S. contractors in Fallujah, and it surrendered control of its police stations and vehicles to Sadr's Mahdi Army in cities from Baghdad to Basra. The Iraqi Civil Defense Corps (ICDC), designed by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to provide paramilitary support to IPS and coalition forces, underperformed in its first major deployment in the Fallujah fighting and failed to prevent the collapse of IPS forces in the face of Mahdi Army pressure in the south. These incidents should prompt new analysis of what can be done to support the continued development of Iraqi security forces, and a realistic reevaluation of expectations regarding the role of these forces before, during, and after the upcoming transition period. Most important, these fragile forces should not be prematurely exposed to serious fighting or other situations that are likely to strain their loyalties.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

37. Deciphering Palestinian Politics Post-Arafat

Author:: Khaled Abu Toameh
Publication Date:: 12-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On November 29, 2004, Khaled Abu Toameh addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Toameh, the West Bank correspondent for the Jerusalem Post and a special correspondent for U.S. News World Report, is the 2004 Ira and Betty Weiner visiting fellow at the Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

38. In the Wake of Arafat: Palestinian Politics, Disengagement, and U.S. Policy

Author:: David Makovsky, Aaron David Miller, and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A transfer of power within the Palestinian Authority, coupled with the Israeli disengagement from Gaza, presents both challenges and opportunities for reviving Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. The preconditions of past peace treaties between Israel and its Arab neighbors have demonstrated the necessity for calm on the ground and strong leaders who can force their constituents to accept peace. Unfortunately, the past four years of fighting, the lack of strong leadership, and the asymmetry of power between the Israelis and Palestinians all act as bulwarks against necessary change. The situation is complicated by the need to prevent Hamas and local warlords from expanding their power. Nevertheless, from the Israeli perspective, there are some opportunities for change. The disengagement plan proves that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon understands that Israel cannot sustain the settlements, while the continued construction of the West Bank fence presents opportunities for new negotiations.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

39. A Decade of Israeli-Jordanian Peace: An Untold Economic Success Story

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ten years on, the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan has weathered a number of storms, including the passing away of King Hussein, four years of Israeli-Palestinian armed struggle, and war in Iraq. Despite considerable domestic anti-peace pressure on the Jordanian regime (nurtured by Islamist elements) and strained Israeli-Jordanian political relations, the two countries have developed impressive security and economic relations. The economic field in particular offers a ray of hope for the future, exemplifying how things could and should be done to enhance peace.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

40. Terror on the UN Payroll?

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 10-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On October 4, 2004, Commissioner-General of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) Peter Hansen unapologetically admitted to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) that the UN employs members of Hamas. "Oh, I am sure that there are Hamas members on the UNRWA payroll," Hansen stated, "and I don't see that as a crime." The fact that Palestinian terrorist groups have increasingly used civilian cover to facilitate their activities remains undisputed (notwithstanding the recent spat between Israel and the UN over drone reconnaissance pictures depicting what Israeli officials claimed were Hamas operatives transporting Qassam missiles in a UN ambulance, but which now appear to have been merely stretchers). In several documented cases, Palestinian terrorists have exploited employment with UN and other agencies to support their groups' activities.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

41. The Missing Peace: A Conversation on Middle East Peacemaking

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 10, 2004, Madeleine Albright and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. As secretary of state, Albright was the highest-ranking woman in the history of the U.S. government. Currently, she is chairman of the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs and founder and principal of the Albright Group. Ambassador Ross, counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow at The Washington Institute, is author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace (Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2004). From 1989 to 2000, he served as the chief U.S. envoy to the Middle East. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

42. Indicting Hamas: By Disrupting Its Operations, Does the West Become a Target?

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 08-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week, federal authorities in Chicago indicted three senior Hamas members—two of whom were arrested in the United States, while the third remains at large in Syria—on charges of racketeering and (in the case of one defendant) providing material support to terrorists. The indictment marks a watershed in the prosecution of terrorists raising funds and plotting attacks from the United States. It also raises reason for concern: might Hamas now target Western interests?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arabia, Syria, and Chicago

43. Prospects of Israeli Disengagement: A Status Report

Author:: Dennis Ross and Wendy Sherman
Publication Date:: 07-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: There is no doubt that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is absolutely determined to carry out disengagement despite the political problems within his own party. The demographic issue of ensuring a long-term Jewish democratic majority in Israel and the associated political pressure has fueled his determination to proceed with disengagement.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt

44. Sharon's Disengagement Plan: A Likud Perspective

Author:: Zalman Shoval
Publication Date:: 06-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 6, the Israeli government approved a plan for unilateral separation by a 14 to 7 vote. The plan includes complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip (with the exception of the so-called "Philadelphi Corridor" on the Egypt-Gaza border) and from certain West Bank settlements. It is scheduled to be implemented beginning in March 2005 and should be completed by the end of that year.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

45. Time to Shut Down the PKK: Why the United States and Turkey Should Work Together

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A U.S. government team is in Ankara today for talks with members of the Turkish military and intelligence services regarding the future of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an organization on the State Department's Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. On September 2, 2003, the PKK, whose past attacks have cost Turkey 35,000 lives, renounced a unilateral ceasefire it had declared in February 2000. This is a dangerous development for three reasons. First, PKK violence could throw Turkey back into the political maelstrom of the 1990s, and it is in Washington's best interests to help preserve democratic Turkey's stability. Second, if the PKK attacks Turkey from U.S.-controlled northern Iraq, where it has an estimated 4,000-5,000 terrorists, this could put Washington and Ankara at loggerheads. Third, Turkey considers joint action against the PKK a sine qua non for U.S.-Turkish cooperation in Iraq; it is unlikely that Ankara will send troops to Iraq unless the PKK issue is tackled. Given all of these reasons, the threat that the PKK poses to U.S. national interests is now at such a level that the organization is a legitimate target in the war on terror. Therefore, it is time to take action against the PKK.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

46. Arrows for India?

Author:: Richard Speier
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon visits India on September 9-11, he is likely to explore the possible sale of Israeli Arrow antiballistic missiles to New Delhi. The United States, which has provided funds and technology for the Arrow since 1986, has a veto right over sales to third parties. U.S. approval of a sale to India would offer both advantages and disadvantages.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, India, Israel, New Delhi, and Arabia

47. European Union Reforms Diminish the Role of the Turkish Military: Ankara Knocking on Brussels' Door

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 8, 2003, the seventh European Union (EU) reform package went into effect in Turkey, significantly curbing the role of the military in politics. This legislation, passed by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government on August 4, follows six previous packages adopted since February 2002. Collectively, these reform measures have vastly liberalized the country's political system, facilitating Kurdish broadcasting and education, abolishing the death penalty, and subjecting Turkish courts to the European Court of Human Rights. Turkey now has laws guaranteeing freedom of speech, and the military is no longer the kingmaker in Ankara. As a result, AKP -- a self-styled "conservative democratic" party with an identifiable "Islamist pedigree" -- anticipates that Turkey will pass muster when Brussels reviews its candidacy for EU membership in June 2004. Ankara hopes that the EU will establish an accession calendar, opening the way for Turkey's eventual entry into the union, perhaps within the next decade. These developments are crucial to Turkey's future. Which path will the country take now that the military is stripped of its role as a decisionmaking body? Will the EU open its doors to Turkey?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

48. U.S.-Turkish Military Cooperation in Iraq? The Next Step

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A surprising summit meeting yesterday in Ankara involving members of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, the Turkish General Staff, the Turkish Foreign Ministry, and the Turkish National Intelligence Organization produced an agreement "in principle" to send Turkish "peacekeeping soldiers" to Iraq. From one perspective, if Turkish troops were deployed to Iraq, it could end the period of "strategic pause" between Washington and Ankara in place since March 1, when the Turkish parliament refused to open up a northern front for U.S. troops invading Iraq. There are still political obstacles to Turkish troop deployment -- such as a divided AKP and a fairly reluctant parliament. Moreover, Turkish law requires that parliament authorize sending troops abroad except in the case of international legislation (such as a UN resolution), or a call for help justifying such a deployment, and the Turkish parliament is in recess until October 1. But even before the AKP government determines its position on this issue, a major hurdle will have to be overcome: if American and Turkish troops are to work together in Iraq, they will first have to build mutual confidence, which -- once formidable -- seems to have quickly eroded over the past months. How can this be accomplished?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

49. The September 11 Congressional Report: A Sea Change in U.S.-Saudi Relations?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Yesterday's meeting in the White House between U.S. president George W. Bush and Saudi foreign minister Prince Saud al-Faisal reflects both Saudi official anger at the reports of the kingdom's apparent complicity in the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and its continuing ability to gain short-notice access to the very top of the U.S. administration. But reports of the meeting suggest a new and public toughness by President Bush toward the Saudi leadership -- a significant break in the closeness between two political dynasties, the Bushes and the al-Saud.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

50. Special Policy Forum Report: The U.S.-Turkish Relationship -- Prospects and Perils

Author:: Abdullah Gul
Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 25, 2003, Turkish deputy prime minister and foreign minister Abdullah Gul addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Gul was Turkey's prime minister between November 2002 and March 2003, and he served as minister of state and government spokesman in the Welfare Party government of 1997. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Dr. Gul's remarks and the question-and-answer session that followed.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

51. Hizballah's Unwitting U.S. Bankers

Author:: Avi Jorisch
Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Executives at some leading U.S. financial, corporate, and journalistic institutions, such as JP Morgan Chase, Wachovia, American Express Centurion Bank, Associated Press Television News (APTN), Telestar5, and Interland, should be aware that their organizations are unwitting accomplices in the terrorist activities of Hizballah, recently labeled "the A team" of terrorism by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

52. Succession Politics in the Conservative Arab Gulf States: The Weekend's Events in Ras Al-Khaimah

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The normally sleepy shaykhdom of Ras al-Khaimah, part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), was wracked by gunfire and street protests over the weekend after the aged and frail ruler, Shaykh Saqr bin Mohammed al-Qassimi, switched the title of crown prince from one of his seven sons to another. Sword-waving supporters of the deposed son, Shaykh Khalid, forced members of the emiri guard to retreat behind the high walls of the ruler's palace. A semblance of order was restored only after Abu Dhabi, the lead emirate of the UAE, sent armored vehicles to Ras al-Khaimah. Shaykh Khalid still contests the change, but troops have prevented supporters from reaching his palace. Although he is an outspoken critic of the United States, his removal flies in the face of certain U.S. policy objectives.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

53. Reading Between the Lines of the Sharm Al-Shaykh Summit

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At yesterday's Sharm al-Shaykh summit, President George W. Bush persisted in his post-September 11 campaign to transform the Middle Eastern landscape, an effort that includes not only promoting Israeli-Palestinian peace but transforming intra-Arab politics as well. A close reading of the carefully crafted statements by Bush and his Egyptian host, President Hosni Mubarak, offers a revealing look into where U.S. and Arab leaders agree, disagree, and choose to remain ambiguous on critical issues facing the region.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

54. Special Policy Forum Report: Impact of Success in Iraq on Gulf States

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The end of Saddam Husayn's regime offers several key benefits with regard to U.S. interests. World oil supplies will increase as Iraq -- which has not been a major oil exporter since the beginning of the 1980-1988 war with Iran -- raises its oil production capacity to its full potential, which may amount to 5-6 million barrels per day. Cheap oil will boost the global economy, reduce Arab control of the oil market, and allow the United States to become less dependent on Saudi Arabia and better positioned to demand reforms from Middle Eastern regimes. In addition, postwar Iraq will no longer pose a weapons-of-mass-destruction threat to the region. The end of Saddam's regime will also reduce Russian and French influence in the region.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

55. The Emergence of Resistance in Iraq

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Whatever the long-term prospects for a stable and democratic Iraq, the potential exists for the development of resistance to that goal. This potential is rooted in both historical factors (e.g., Iraq's political culture; Iraqi distrust of the United States; enduring images of colonialism) and immediate circumstances (e.g., the collapse of Saddam Husayn's regime and the attendant destruction of governing systems and infrastructure; the legacy of regime crimes). Indeed, the latter circumstances have created precursors for resistance to coalition forces, the transitional government, and the eventual Iraqi government.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

56. U.S. Policy and Iraqi Oil: The Challenges Ahead

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) -- the oil producers' cartel of which Iraq is a founding member -- meets in Vienna to discuss production cuts intended to maintain the current, relatively high price of oil. The United States is not expected to send a representative for Iraq, although one or more among the plethora of political groups in the liberated country may send a would-be representative, unlikely to be seated. While ignoring the meeting, Washington still needs to make clear how it will reconstruct the Iraqi oil industry and utilize the nation's huge oil reserves, second in size only to those of Saudi Arabia.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Vienna

57. Winning the Peace in the Middle East: A Bipartisan Blueprint for Postwar U.S. Policy

Author:: William Perry, Newt Gingrich, R. James Woolsey, Lawrence Eagleburger, Alexander Haig, Robert Kerrey, and Fred Thompson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President George W. Bush declared that Iraq would be disarmed -- peacefully if possible, through force if necessary. While resort to arms was surely not the preferred option, Saddam Husayn's determination to preserve his weapons of mass destruction (WMD) ensured that the United States and its allies would be left with no choice but to act militarily. The path to war has not been precipitous. If the United States is now to avoid the age-old fear of winning the war but losing the peace, the administration's postwar priorities must reflect an understanding of the challenges it faces and the choices it must make.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

58. Trying to Walk a Fine Line? Hizballah's Stakes in the Current War

Author:: Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Amidst the war in Iraq, the Lebanese group Hizballah has decided not to open up what could have been a "second front" by attacking Israel. This decision should not be mistaken for passivity, however. With the world paying scant attention, Hizballah is seeking to shape Arab public opinion against the United States. It is important to understand the underlying forces that drive Hizballah's campaign against the United States so as to better comprehend the organization's stakes in the Iraq war and its aftermath.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

59. Basing Restrictions Shape Concept and Conduct of War

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With Saudi Arabian, Turkish, and Jordanian host-nation restrictions limiting coalition ground and air operations, the United States has begun to develop a range of Iraqi airfields as forward operating bases for combat aircraft. This is ironic considering that successive U.S. governments spent billions of dollars to develop an unparalleled basing environment to support U.S. power projection in the Gulf. Recent decisions by Saudi Arabia and Turkey -- key U.S. allies -- have arguably prevented Washington from waging a shorter and less costly war in terms of both blood and treasure. Yet, the United States has benefited greatly from its policy of diversifying basing assets in the smaller Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, recognizing that Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman are dependable allies and that Iraq may one day replace Saudi Arabia as a key airbase provider.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

60. Turkmens, The Soft Underbelly of the War in Northern Iraq

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With the northern front in Iraq being officially launched today, coalition forces may soon move toward the city of Kirkuk, which they began bombing on March 21. Kirkuk, claimed by Kurds as the prospective capital of a Kurdish region in postwar Iraq, is the bastion of the Turkmens, a Turkish-speaking community that shares close historical, social, and cultural ties with the Anatolian Turks in neighboring Turkey. Their fortunes will be closely scrutinized in Turkey during and after Operation Iraqi Freedom. If Turks feel that the Turkmen community is being discriminated against or threatened, they could force Ankara to take action, perhaps undermining what remains of U.S.-Turkish cooperation in Iraq.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

61. The 'Arab Street' and the War: Are Regimes in Control?

Author:: Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: An apparently spontaneous protest stopped traffic in Cairo's Tahrir Square Thursday. Protesting the allied attack on Iraq, some of the participants turned violent, overturning police blockades. In Damascus, riot police fired tear gas on hundreds of protesters who threw rocks and tried to rush the U.S. embassy. Several smaller demonstrations were also reported in Lebanon, Jordan, and the Gaza Strip. Today, more protests occurred in Cairo, Jerusalem, Beirut, Damascus, Amman, and Manama. In Yemen, a shootout was reported between police and antiwar protesters marching on the U.S. embassy in Sanaa. These incidents support the idea of a dangerous "Arab street," reflecting a disaffected Arab public incensed at U.S. policy. What is the impact of Arab antiwar opinion on regional stability?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

62. Infrastructure Targeting and Postwar Iraq

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Using new operational concepts in concert with rapidly maturing strike technologies, the U.S. military will attempt to seamlessly dovetail the destructive process of warfare with the reconstructive effort of nation building in any future air operations against Iraq. Lessons learned from air campaigns conducted in Iraq during the 1990s have laid the foundation for a more finessed approach to infrastructure targeting.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

63. Promoting Saudi Civil Society: What role for the United States?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week the Bush administration decided to reject the recommendation of an independent federal agency to designate Saudi Arabia as a "country of particular concern" under the 1998 International Religious Freedom Act. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom had heard evidence that the Saudi religious police raided the homes of foreign workers who practiced Christianity and held them in squalid, overcrowded prisons. Washington's dilemma lies in dealing with such evidence without upsetting Riyadh at a time when the United States is trying to secure optimal Saudi cooperation on military action against Iraq. The administration's reluctance is at odds with President George W. Bush's National Security Strategy announced in September 2002, which defined "a single, sustainable model for national success [in the world]: freedom, democracy, and free enterprise." It also obscures an opportunity to bolster emerging trends in Saudi Arabia that hint at potential political change.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

64. Iraq's Nascent Nuclear Doctrine: Insights from a Captured Document

Author:: Norman Cigar
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: During Operation Desert Storm, U.S. forces captured several million Iraqi military documents. Among these was one titled "The Operational Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction; Volume 2; Part 2; Foundations for the Use of Nuclear Weapons in War." The manual was published in July 1988 by the Ministry of Defense and bears the approving signature of then-chief of staff Lt. Gen. Nizar al-Khazraji. As such, it represents official Iraqi thinking on the topic, providing the most detailed description of how Baghdad might use nuclear weapons if it were to acquire them. The existence of the manual indicates that the Iraqi military was thinking ahead to a time when Iraq would have nuclear weapons, and that it was preparing to integrate such weapons into its arsenal and its overall military doctrine
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

65. Special Policy Forum Report: Fighting With or Without Turkey? Lessons and Implications

Author:: Gordon Rudd and Gerald Thompson
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: It is unclear clear whether the Turkish parliament will re-vote or approve the deployment of U.S. troops in Turkey in preparation for an attack on Iraq. Turkish military cooperation -- or its absence -- may either facilitate or, respectively, complicate an American military operation. Even if the Turkish parliament were to approve the move, potential fault lines could challenge a Turkish-American partnership in the event of war. In this environment, Operations Provide Comfort (OPC) I and II of the early 1990s -- when Turkey, the United States, and other NATO allies collaborated closely in northern Iraq to establish a safe haven for Kurds -- may prove instructive.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

66. What Kind of Defense Might Iraq Mount?

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: If the United States and the "coalition of the willing" go to war, the result will be a comprehensive defeat of the Iraqi regime and its military and security forces. What is not so clear is how smoothly the military campaign will proceed. Many commentators seem to assume that any serious problems would emerge only after the war was over. Yet, could the Iraqis mount enough defense to cause problems during the war itself? How might they defend themselves, and why might they have some success?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

67. The U.S. Indictment of Palestinian Islamic Jihad Militants: The Iranian Connection

Author:: Ely Karmon
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 20, 2003, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the indictment of eight leading members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). The indictment provides a wealth of detail about the close connection between PIJ and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Topic:: Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

68. An Accident on the Road to U.S.-Turkish Cooperation in Iraq: Implications for Turkey

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a dramatic session yesterday, the Turkish parliament convened to consider a motion sent by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, which had requested that a large U.S. force be permitted to use Turkish soil as a staging ground for a possible campaign in Iraq. The legislature refused to authorize the motion, however, blocking the creation of a northern front in the looming war. Of the 533 deputies in session, 264 voted for the motion, 250 voted against it, and 19 abstained, bringing the motion only three votes shy of the majority required by the constitution. AKP assurances that only 30 to 40 of its delegates would object to the motion crashed to a halt over the course of the session, with 99 of the party's deputies voting nay. Although the democratic will of the Turkish parliament should be respected, the fact remains that the AKP government failed to pass its agenda through the legislature. Some analysts argue that this spells trouble for both Turkey and AKP, with others speculating that U.S.-Turkish relations are now at a historical threshold.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

69. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey's Stakes in Iraq

Author:: Soner Cagaptay and Mark Parris
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey's parliament will soon vote on whether to allow U.S. forces to use Turkish soil as a staging ground for a possible war with Iraq. Since Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz's trip to Ankara in early December 2002, Turkey and the United States have engaged in a protracted dialogue about Ankara's stance toward potential U.S. military action. Why has Turkey been hesitant to support Washington's plans, and how might such vacillation affect the U.S.-Turkish strategic alliance in the future?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

70. Complicity in Iraq: How Deep?

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As war with Iraq looms closer, postwar questions are receiving increasing attention. Senior defense officials have been addressing such issues frequently, and the White House held a press briefing yesterday on "Humanitarian Reconstruction" in Iraq. One of these issues concerns individuals who have been complicit in the crimes of Saddam Husayn's regime. According to the Washington Post, the United States intends to conduct a "de-Baathification" program in Iraq similar in some ways to the "de-Nazification" program conducted in Germany in the wake of World War II. Although the details of this program are still to be worked out, the Post indicated that complicity in "human rights and weapons abuses" would be key criteria in determining which Iraqi officials would be permitted to keep their jobs.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Germany

71. Lebanese Military Deployment to the South: Understanding Syria's Defensive Tactics

Author:: Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent weeks, Syria has begun to alter its military tactics in Lebanon as a direct consequence of U.S. policy toward Iraq. Even without U.S. forces firing a shot against Saddam Husayn, leaders throughout the Middle East have already begun to position themselves for an eventual U.S.-led victory and the reverberations to follow.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

72. Up Next: Al-Jazeera in English

Author:: Merissa Khurma
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Planning to target the English-speaking market for the first time in its history, the popular twenty-four-hour Arabic television news network al-Jazeera is working to launch a new English-language website sometime this spring. Upon its launch, the site will reach a new and diverse audience beyond the borders of the Arabic-speaking world. The Christian Science Monitor has even reported that this might be a first step toward the creation of an English-language television channel designed to broadcast controversial news programming in the United States "by satellite and cable."
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

73. Iran's Nuclear Program: Gathering Dust or Gaining Steam?

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the United States looks to disarm Iraq and to defuse or defer a nuclear crisis with North Korea, another nuclear crisis -- with Iran -- looms on the horizon. U.S. policymakers could face critical decisions this year regarding Iran's nuclear program as the Bushehr reactor approaches completion, as Iran's efforts to produce fissile material progress, and, most alarming, as North Korea appears poised to become a significant producer -- and perhaps supplier -- of fissile material.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, and Arabia

74. Why are the Turks Hesitating on Iraq?

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 25, Secretary of State Colin Powell met Turkish prime minister Abdullah Gul and the chair of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Tayyip Erdogan, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Powell's meeting -- which followed a January 19 visit to Turkey by General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a December 6 visit by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz -- was aimed at persuading Ankara to allow American troops entry into Turkey in order to prepare a northern front against Iraq. After nearly two months of negotiations, the Turkish government still appears undecided on this issue. Why are the Turks hesitant to cooperate with U.S. military plans, and how can Washington overcome Ankara's indecision? Recent developments in Turkey may help answer both of these questions.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Switzerland

75. Easy on the Stick: Why the United States Should Deconflict

Author:: Max Abrahms
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, hundreds of U.S. soldiers will participate in Juniper Cobra, a joint exercise with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to test the interoperability of U.S. Patriot and Israeli Arrow antiballistic missile systems. Such bilateral cooperation, coupled with reports that the Bush administration is considering providing Israel an additional $4 billion in military assistance, suggests that Washington is relying mainly on carrots to discourage an Israeli military response in the event of an Iraqi attack. These moves may explain Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's recent declaration, "We never had such cooperation in everything as we have with the current administration." Yet, precisely what form would this "cooperation" take if Iraq used weapons of mass destruction against Israel or otherwise inflicted mass casualties? Would Washington attempt to shape Israel's retaliatory options as it did during Operation Desert Storm?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

76. Special Policy Forum Report: The Bush Administration's Busy Year in the Middle East -- A Preview of 2003

Author:: Robert Satloff, Dennis Ross, E.J. Dionne, and Fred Barnes
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Dilemmas for U.S. Middle East policy will arise in the immediate post-Saddam aftermath. Foremost will be America's preoccupation with stabilizing Iraq and transforming its new government into a democracy. Vague at present is whether U.S.-led forces will focus on existing institutions (e.g., the Iraqi military) or build new ones to achieve these goals. Such decisions will affect the degree and nature of Iraq's transformation, and the new regime's composition could be significantly different if the United States were to depend on a reformed Iraqi military to promote stability. Moreover, Iraqi transformation corresponds directly to a region-wide transformation, because increased efforts to transform Iraq with a broad-based, representative government will send signals of political reform to Iraq's neighbors. U.S. policy must stand ready to assist other Middle Eastern regimes in their transition to more responsible governments that offer their people hope and the prospect for change.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

77. Ansar Al-Islam: Iraq's Al-Qaeda Connection

Author:: Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ansar al-Islam, an al-Qaeda affiliate active in Iraqi Kurdistan since September 2001, is a prototype of America's enemies in the "war on terror." The group serves as a testament to the global spread of al-Qaeda affiliates, achieved through exploitation of weak central authorities and a utilitarian willingness to work with seemingly differing ideologies for a common cause. Lengthy reports on Ansar have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times, and Kurdish leaders have given Washington a plethora of intelligence on the group. Nevertheless, Ansar has yet to appear on official U.S. terrorism lists. Meanwhile, political complexities would make military action against the group difficult, at best. Hence, this small force of 650 fighters is a textbook example of the ongoing challenges posed by the war on terror.
Topic:: Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, New York, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

78. Criminal Enterprise in the Political Economy of Middle Eastern Terrorism

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At least five terrorist suspects who entered the United States illegally from Canada during the Christmas holidays are now the subjects of an international manhunt. The suspects' international travel was apparently facilitated by Pakistani criminal elements engaged in the production of false documents, including forged visas and passports. The nexus between criminal and terrorist activity is not new. Indeed, international terrorism is facilitated and financed by an array of states, groups, fronts, individuals, businesses, banks, criminal enterprises, and nominally humanitarian organizations. Since the attacks of September 11, experts and decisionmakers have focused much attention on charitable and humanitarian organizations, as well as official and unofficial banking systems in the network of terrorist financing. The political economy of terrorism, however, relies just as heavily on legitimate businesses and, increasingly, criminal activity.
Topic:: Security, Political Economy, and Religion
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Taliban, Arab Countries, Syria, and North America

79. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq's WMD Declaration – How Important? How to Respond?

Author:: David Kay
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 6, 2002, David Kay addressed the Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. David Kay is a senior fellow at the Potomac Institute. He previously served as the UN's chief nuclear weapons inspector in Iraq, where he led teams that uncovered the scope and extent of Iraq's nuclear program. He has also served as corporate vice president of Science Applications International Corporation. UN Security Council Resolution 1441 required Iraq to submit a full and complete declaration of all weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs and associated delivery systems by December 8. Given the stakes, and the fact that Iraq's previous declarations have been incomplete and misleading, the international community remains concerned, and the United States wary, of the Iraqi declaration.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

80. Powell on Democracy in the Muslim World: Assessing the Latest Exposition of U.S. Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: U.S. policy on promoting democracy in Muslim-majority countries took two steps forward and one step back last week with Secretary of State Colin Powell's major address unveiling the new Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI). On the positive side was the simple fact that democratization merited such cabinet-level focus, along with the details of MEPI itself – a promising set of small-scale, big-bang-for-the-buck, incubator-style projects targeted at critical groups (women, youths, educators) that deserve attention and support. On the negative side were a series of political messages within the speech – both explicit and implicit – suggesting that the active promotion of democratic change in Muslim countries, especially U.S. allies in the Arab world, may not be such a priority after all.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

81. Saudi Financial Counterterrorism Measures (Part I): The Impact in the Kingdom

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Measures being taken by Saudi Arabia to stop terrorist financing have been welcomed by top U.S. officials. But the main test for the new rules announced on December 3 will be in Saudi Arabia itself, where zakat (giving to Islamic charities) is a religious duty and where measures that please Washington are increasingly regarded as objectionable. As often happens in the kingdom, the theory behind the new rules may well differ from how they are actually implemented.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

82. A Tale of Two Qatars

Author:: Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Central Command of the U.S. military reports that the biennial "Internal Look" exercise is slated to begin Monday at the as-Sayliyah base in Qatar. The operation is designed to test U.S. military reactions to various threats in the Middle East.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

83. Keeping Al-Qaeda out of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:: Benjamin Orbach
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Initial suspicions, select intelligence reports, and growing evidence have indicated that al-Qaeda played a role in Thursday's attacks on an Israeli-owned hotel and airliner in Mombasa, Kenya. If this evidence proves accurate, the attacks signal a shift in al-Qaeda's choice of targets and demonstrate a new danger to immediate U.S. interests in the Middle East. After almost a year of silence, Osama bin Laden (or someone speaking in his name) has resurfaced with a revised political agenda meant to mobilize the Arab and Muslim worlds against the United States. Through two recent communications – a November 12 statement and a less publicized "Letter to the American People" distributed on the internet and translated by the British Observer on November 24 – al-Qaeda has made the Palestinian issue the new focal point of its allegations against the United States.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

84. Special Policy Forum Report: Envisioning a Post-Saddam Iraqi Military

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt and Kenneth Pollack
Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Retraining and reorganizing the Iraqi military and eliminating weapons of mass destruction (WMD) will be vital tasks in the wake of any U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Yet, political change is a prerequisite for military change, and neglecting the former could pose disastrous consequences for the latter. Specifically, the United States should assist in the creation of an apolitical, professional Iraqi military in concert with a new pluralist, federal, civilian-led Iraqi government with indigenous roots. Ultimately, these efforts would help to stabilize Iraq both internally and vis-a-vis its neighbors.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

85. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran – Reformist Blues, Economic Woes

Author:: Afshin Molavi
Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iran has been experiencing nationwide student demonstrations this week, touched off by a hardline court's recent decision to sentence Tehran professor Hashem Aghajari to death for advocating reform of the Shi'i clergy. Although Aghajari's message was well within the mainstream of traditional Shi'a thought, it presented a challenge to the hardline clerics, who insist on a far-reaching revision of Shi'a that includes unquestioning obedience to ruling clergy. The death sentence was meant to send a message to other midranking academics within the reformist movement. Yet, the hardliners' grave miscalculation about the reaction of the Iranian street has led to protests in Tehran, Tabriz, and other Iranian cities.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and World Bank
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

86. Behind the French Tanker Bombing: Yemen's Ongoing Problems with Islamist Terrorism

Author:: Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since September 2001, Yemen has worked hard to shed its image as a hotbed of Islamist terrorism. That image, however, was reinforced when London's al-Sharq al-Awsat Arabic daily reported that the Islamic Army of Aden (IAA, or Aden-Abyan Islamic Army), an al-Qaeda affiliate, claimed responsibility for an explosion that crippled a French tanker on October 6 in the Yemeni harbor of Mina' al-Dabba. Moreover, a recent letter allegedly written by Osama bin Laden praises the "bold heroic jihad operations . . . against the crusader's oil tanker." The attack, which killed one crewman, underscores Yemen's importance as an area of concern in the U.S. government's "war on terror."
Topic:: Security, Religion, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, London, and Arab Countries

87. Special Policy Forum Report: The Old Middle East's Triumph: Roots of Current Crises

Author:: Barry Rubin
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This question is usually answered in one of two ways. The "just around the corner" view, often favored by Western government officials and the media, argues that the region's conflicts and lack of significant progress could be rectified quickly if only the proper policies and detailed solutions were proposed. In contrast, the "victim" view, often favored in academia and in the Arab world, argues that the area's problems result primarily from external aggression and oppression. The irony is that those styling themselves progressive and pro-Arab in the West actually do great damage to the lives of Arabs in the Middle East, in part by embracing reactionary dictatorships.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

88. Enhancing the Turkish-American Alliance: The Campaign for Iraq and Other Possibilities

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones was in Ankara Monday to discuss foreign policy issues including Iraq with her Turkish counterparts. Interestingly, Iraq's vice premier Tariq Aziz visited Ankara yesterday for the same purpose. These trips come at a crucial time as Washington prepares for a confrontation with Saddam Husayn. While prepared to stand with its close NATO ally the United States, Turkey remains uneasy about several issues.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

89. Shaping a New UN Draft Resolution on Iraq

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The United States and Britain are consulting with the other three permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, France, and China) before introducing a new draft resolution on Iraq. Much attention has been given to whether the resolution will explicitly authorize the use of force. At least as important will be whether the resolution reverses the long, slow erosion of Iraq's UN-mandated obligations. For all their seemingly tough language, recent Security Council resolutions on Iraq have been ambiguous at best about the issues on which Saddam Husayn has been allowed to cheat in the past.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

90. November Elections in Turkey: Assessing the Ban on Justice and Development Party Leader Tayyip Erdogan

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the United States considers a possible military campaign in Iraq, Turkey is preoccupied with its upcoming elections. Although a party with roots in Islamism will be a major contender in the November 3 elections, it is unlikely that Turkey's approach to the Iraq issue will change much, regardless of which party wins. That said, continuing political uncertainty at home could preoccupy Turkish leaders, reducing Turkey's contribution to solving the Iraq problem.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

91. Special Policy Forum Report: Battling for the 'Hearts and Minds' of Middle Easterners, Post-September 11: A Year-End Assessment

Author:: Martin Kramer and Mouafac Harb
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Public diplomacy in the Middle Eastern context is not a new problem. Every non-Muslim state that has projected its power into the Middle East has had to win over the "hearts and minds" of the Muslim population under its control. Muslim Middle Easterners have always viewed the projection of non-Muslim power into the region with suspicion. Nevertheless, America does not have to reinvent the public diplomacy wheel. The United States should learn from the history of the European experience in the Middle East and from its own successful public diplomacy efforts in the Cold War era.
Topic:: Security, Cold War, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, America, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

92. Special Policy Forum Report: U.S.-Turkish Interests: Convergence and Divergence

Author:: Seyfi Tashan and Heath Lowry
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The U.S.-Turkish security relationship is becoming increasingly important to the stability of the Middle East. The two countries have long enjoyed a friendship based on mutual economic and military interests. Many perceive this to be an ideal relationship between the West and the Islamic world. Americans certainly have an interest in encouraging Muslim countries to develop more democratic societies. Yet, the secular structure of Muslim Turkey may not necessarily be the right model for the entire Muslim world. Any externally imposed model is a recipe for failure; individual countries must possess structures of their own that will allow them to develop secular institutions.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

93. Special Policy Forum Report: Battling for the Hearts and Minds in the Middle East: A Critique of U.S. Public Diplomacy, Post-September 11

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In terms of public diplomacy (PD), the U.S. government's record since September 11 is poor. This failing grade is due to a combination of factors: faulty strategic direction from PD policymakers, who have put a premium on a well-intentioned but highly counterproductive effort "to be liked" at the expense of policy advocacy; flawed tactical decisions that have lent an aura of endorsement to some of the most virulent critics (and critiques) of U.S. interests and policy; a lack of speed and creativity in taking advantage of the post-September 11 window to develop and implement new PD projects and initiatives (some of which are actually resurrected old projects that were prematurely terminated); and over-reliance on the powers of broadcasting and a concomitant lack of attention and adequate funding to medium- and long-term aspects of the "hearts and minds" campaign. An assessment of the past year suggests that the heart of the problem lies in Washington, not in the field, where most PD professionals toil with woefully inadequate resources and poor policy direction. Even in the field, however, some are reluctant to press the case for U.S. policy, preferring instead to focus efforts on winning admiration for and sympathy with U.S. values.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

94. WMD Inspections in Iraq: A Trap or an Opportunity?

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President George W. Bush's speech to the UN General Assembly on September 12 is expected to lay out U.S. policy on Iraq. There are strong arguments against raising the issue of arms inspections at all during this speech, and even stronger arguments for proposing a specific deadline for resuming inspections.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

95. A Roadmap from Crawford to Baghdad

Author:: Raymond Tanter
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: An uninvited guest – Saddam Husayn – may dominate the August 21 military planning session at President George W. Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas. The publicized agenda for this session does not mention Iraq, but then again, neither did the Bush speech at West Point in June 2002. Nevertheless, the doctrine Bush set out in that speech – the doctrine of preventive war – will receive its first test case with Iraq. Bush's argument in June was that the United States must be prepared to take preemptive action against rogue states that acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD), which could be transferred to terrorists if not used directly by such states.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, South Africa, Baghdad, and Arabia

96. Special Policy Forum Report: Where is Iran – and U.S. Iran Policy – Headed?

Author:: Zalmay Khalilzad
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: "On January 29, the President in his State of the Union address laid the foundation for the policy we are pursuing today for Iran. It's a dual track policy based on moral clarity: tell the world specifically what is destructive and unacceptable about Iran's behavior – sponsorship of terror, pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and repression of the clearly expressed desires of the Iranian people for freedom and democracy – while laying out a positive vision of partnership and support for the Iranian people. This dual track approach reflects two fundamental principles and beliefs of the President more broadly: first, that September 11 taught us that we need to deal with threats before they manifest [themselves], and, second, that there is an essential truth that must be emphasized: when given the choice, people will choose freedom. . . ."
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

97. Turkey and Regime Change in Iraq

Author:: Mark Parris
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey's attitude will be critical in the event the United States seeks to remove Saddam Husayn through use of force. Simple geography demands that any military option include Turkey. What do Turks think about the prospect of direct U.S. military action to topple Saddam? The short answer is: they hate the idea. But sitting it out is not an option.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

98. U.S.-Saudi Energy Policy Stands at the Brink

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Just short of four years since Crown Prince Abdullah, while on a trip to Washington, met leaders of U.S. energy companies to discuss cooperation efforts, negotiations to secure $25 billion of investment for Saudi gas projects have broken down. A policy that should have cemented the energy-supply facet of Washington's sixty-year friendship with Riyadh is in tatters, alongside the diplomatic and military relationships, themselves frayed by a purported lack of Saudi cooperation since the September 11 attacks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

99. Turkey's Crisis, Iraq's Future, and the Wolfowtiz Visit

Author:: Helena Kane Finn
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The speech delivered by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz at the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) in Istanbul on July 14 was a detailed, comprehensive statement of U.S. policy on Turkey. In the clearest expression of U.S. policy on Turkish-Iraqi relations to date, Wolfowitz observed that "it is vital to Turkey for the people of Iraq to govern themselves democratically, with full respect for the rights of minorities, including the Turcomans, and to maintain the territorial integrity of Iraq." Yet, how will current Turkish crises affect the prospects for U.S.-Turkish cooperation on Iraq?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

100. Subtle Backtracking: Assessing the Quartet's New York Statement

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the most significant Bush administration pronouncement on Arab-Israeli issues since President George W. Bush's landmark June 24 speech, Secretary of State Colin Powell joined with leaders from the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and Russia in issuing a "joint statement" on Middle East policy in New York yesterday. In characterizing the meeting of "Quartet" diplomats that produced the statement, much of today's media reportage highlighted the contrast between Secretary Powell's fealty to the president's security-first approach and the preference of the other Quartet members for pursuing security, political, and humanitarian objectives simultaneously. Yet, a close reading of the Quartet's statement shows a different trend — namely, a disquieting resurrection of pre-June 24 prescriptions for Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, as well as acquiescence by U.S. participants in subtle yet meaningful backtracking in key areas of policy.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, New York, Middle East, and Arabia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS