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2. Lebanon after the Elections
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Although the parliamentary elections on 15 May did not bring a breakthrough in the Lebanese political scene, the weakening of the dominant parties may facilitate reforms necessary to obtain foreign financial aid. The positive results for candidates related to the 2019 anti-government protests will mean a greater emphasis on the fight against corruption among the political elite. To avoid further instability in Lebanon, the EU could step up its support for that state’s institutions, including the Lebanese army, popular amongst the public.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Foreign Aid, Elections, Protests, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
3. French Politics after the Second Round of Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Amanda Dziubińska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition fell well short of an absolute majority in the National Assembly (289 required of the chamber’s 577 seats). For both radical right-wing and left-wing voters, the limitation of the president’s power was of more importance than ideological differences. As a result, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally saw an unprecedented result, becoming the main opposition party. In the most likely scenario of a coalition with Republicans or moderate left and right politicians, the presidential camp, as the greatest political force in the Assembly, will seek to continue the current foreign policy and retain its representatives in key ministries.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Emmanuel Macron, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
4. Turkish Opposition Focuses on Foreign Policy Corrections
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- According to polls, the Turkish opposition candidate has a chance to defeat Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in next year’s presidential elections. Although the opposition parties’ vision of foreign policy is not consistent, as evidenced by public divergences in, for example, the approach to the EU or the war in Ukraine, they remain consistent with the need to improve Türkiye’s relations with the West.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
5. The Palestinian Authority after the Cancellation of Elections
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The cancellation of the 22 May parliamentary elections in the Palestinian Authority (PA) by President Mahmoud Abbas deepens the Palestinian political crisis and contributed to the escalation between Hamas and Israel. The decision is a result of internal disputes in the PA leadership and insufficient external support, primarily from the U.S. The lack of elections will preserve the current political turmoil in the PA and weaken Palestinian relations with Israel.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Crisis Management, and Escalation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
6. Signs of Change on the Hungarian Political Scene a Year Before Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Veronika Jóźwiak
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For the first time in 12 years, the ruling Fidesz and the opposition have even chances of winning the parliamentary elections in April 2022. Unification of the opposition gives it strength, however, the institutional and financial advantages of the ruling party will be difficult to overcome. The government may be weakened by the effects of the pandemic and the loss of membership in the European People’s Party (EPP). The authorities aim to get funds from the new EU budget before the elections. As a partnership with the European extreme right will not contribute to this goal, the formation of a new grouping in the European Parliament (EP) by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is unlikely for now.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, European Union, and Far Right
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Hungary, and Central Europe
7. The State and Future of U.S.-Belarus Relations
- Author:
- Andrzej Dąbrowski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The development of U.S.-Belarus relations has been hampered by the events following the Belarusian presidential election in August 2020. In response to the Lukashenka regime’s violation of human rights, the U.S. extended a set of sanctions against the country and will most likely reinstate suspended economic restrictions. At the same time, the Biden administration will expand support for civil society, which creates a point of cooperation with Poland and the EU to coordinate aid activities and build international support for democratic changes in Belarus.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, North America, Belarus, and United States of America
8. The Israeli Political Scene and the Next Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The continuing crisis in government has led to the dissolution of the Knesset and early parliamentary elections in Israel, the fourth in the last two years. Polls do not reveal any possible coalition variants, which increases the possibility for further elections in autumn. This scenario favours Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose position is strengthened by the effective vaccination campaign against COVID-19 and the normalisation of relations with Gulf states.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Benjamin Netanyahu, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gulf Nations
9. Changes in South Africa’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- May’s parliamentary elections in South Africa, a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), will change the directions of its foreign policy. The victory by the African National Congress (ANC) was made possible by the popularity of the current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, who will emphasize the international dimension of policy. In his new term, he will focus on regaining the trust of foreign investors, strengthening the country’s pro-Western course, supporting multilateralism, and reform of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, International Law, Politics, Elections, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
10. The Centre-Right Returns to Power in Greece
- Author:
- Małgorzata Pawłowska and Melchior Szczepanik
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- ND won the election with 39.9% of the votes. The governing left-wing Syriza took 31.5% while 8.1% voted for the Movement for Change (KINAL), a coalition built around PASOK, the main left-wing party before the last economic crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Politics, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece