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2. South Africa-Russia Maintain Special Relations
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Although South Africa declares it is neutral regarding the war in Ukraine and offers mediation, it remains a de facto ally of Russia. This is due to the strong sentiment among the ruling elites for the period of cooperation with the USSR, its successor Russia and its activity and influence in this country, and the perception that BRICS will help elevate South Africa’s international importance. If Vladimir Putin visits Johannesburg as scheduled in August, the authorities of the state, which is party to the Rome Statute, will not be willing to fulfil their obligation to arrest him or may even leave the International Criminal Court.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, BRICS, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and South Africa
3. China Adapts Policy in Response to Russia's Aggression Against Ukraine
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China perceives the Russian aggression against Ukraine as an expression of resistance to the U.S. and NATO hegemony and an important element of building a new international order that marginalises the West. Based on this, China is strengthening strategic cooperation with Russia, striving to weaken the international position of the U.S., the EU, and their partners, while testing reactions to a possible escalation of Chinese actions towards Taiwan, for example. President Xi Jinping expressed this policy course during his March visit to Russia. At the same time, China is trying to gain support from the countries of the Global South. This approach means a continuation of China’s assertive policy towards the European Union, among others.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia
4. Cooperation and Peril: Germany Attempts a Policy Balance with China
- Author:
- Łukasz Jasiński
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the resulting disruption of supply chains have intensified the ongoing debate in Germany over the preferred shape of German-Chinese relations. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government sees China as both a partner and rival. Reducing dependence on China is challenging due to its scale and the strength of the pro-China business lobby. This unsteady position will cause tensions in relations with partners, including the U.S., and conflicts within the governing coalition. Germany will continue to develop trade relations with China while blocking Chinese investment in critical sectors.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Trade, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Germany
5. Ukraine’s Policy Towards Turkey
- Author:
- Maria Piechowska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The current revival of Ukrainian-Turkish contacts stems from Ukraine’s efforts to win over Turkey as an economic and defence partner in the face of Russian aggression. Both countries share the common goal of limiting Russian domination in the Black Sea. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stands up for the Crimean Tatars, persecuted by Russia. Close bilateral relations may make Turkey—after the EU and the U.S.—one of Ukraine’s most important partners. However, the intensity of the political dialogue will depend on the state of Russian-Turkish relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East
6. Germany-U.S. Relations: A Return to the Strategic Partnership
- Author:
- Lidia Gibadło and Mateusz Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since Joe Biden’s presidency began, Germany’s relationship with the United States has improved. The U.S. made significant concessions, primary among them agreeing to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. This is a new opening for the U.S. in the bilateral relations and sets the foundations for the reconstruction of the strategic partnership with Germany that Biden sees as necessary to implement U.S. policy towards a post-Brexit Europe. However, the possible reluctance of the next German government to adopt a more confrontational policy towards China could be a challenge to that goal.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Nord Stream 2
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America
7. The Specificity of Hungarian-Israeli Relations
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz and Veronika Jóźwiak
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Hungary under Viktor Orbán’s premiership has become one of Israel’s most important European partners. This is reflected in the diplomatic support for Israel by Hungary, mainly at the EU level. Close relations with Israel serve Hungary’s foreign and domestic policy goals and at the same time weaken the effectiveness of the EU’s Middle East policy. However, the new Israeli government may be less open to political cooperation with this country because of earlier criticism of Hungary on, for example, historical issues.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Hungary
8. Ukraine's Foreign Policy Strategy
- Author:
- Maria Piechowska
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, approved in August this year the first Foreign Policy Strategy in the country’s history. According to the document, Ukraine’s main goal is membership in the EU and NATO and an end to the conflict with Russia. Like in the National Security Strategy, Ukraine included Poland in the second group of strategic partners. Cooperation with Poland is to be deepened and developed, not only bilaterally but also as part of multilateral formats in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, European Union, and Volodymyr Zelensky
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
9. Belarus in Turkey's Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Karol Wasilewski
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s actions towards Belarus show that the country plays a greater role in Turkish foreign policy than bilateral relations might suggest. It would be beneficial for Turkey’s Western allies, including Poland, to take this factor into account in the dialogue with their Turkish partner on the political use of the migration through the Belarusian-Polish border by Alexander Lukashenka’s regime and on the political situation in Belarus.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Bilateral Relations, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Poland, and Belarus
10. A Crash Test: EU Strategic Autonomy in the Foreign Policy of France
- Author:
- Łukasz Maślanka
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- France uses the idea of EU strategic autonomy as a tool in its own foreign policy. France’s aim is to redefine the Union’s partnership with the U.S. and NATO. Hence, the activity of President Emmanuel Macron in emphasising the differences between the positions of the U.S. and the EU, especially in relations with China and Russia. Macron’s rhetoric worries other European countries and hides the real problems in EU security policy, such as insufficient financing of the Common Security and Defence Policy as well as the lack of a clear definition of strategic autonomy.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Strategic Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, France, and United States of America
11. Almost Best Friends: Austria’s Relations with Germany
- Author:
- Adam S. Czartoryski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- No other neighbour is as closely connected to Austria as Germany. For years, bilateral relations have been based on deep economic connection and mutual understanding of interests. However, Austria under Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is more and more often and more decisively able to express a different opinion from Germany on important issues in European politics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, and Austria
12. The EU Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime: Prospects and Challenges
- Author:
- Elzbieta Kaca
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The European “Magnitsky Act” adopted by the EU is a political signal that the Union wants to protect human rights in the world more effectively. It fixes the scope of sanctions application in this field, but it does not fundamentally change existing EU practices. Still, the challenges lie in the adoption of sanctions listings by a unanimous decision of the Member States and their subsequent effective implementation. The new system will be used for the first time to impose restrictions on those responsible for the detention of Alexei Navalny in Russia. It may also be used in cases of human rights violations in China or on the territory of conflict areas in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Sanctions, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
13. NATO on the Road to a New Strategy
- Author:
- Wojciech Lorenz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- During the meeting of NATO foreign ministers on 2–3 December 2020, a group of experts presented the report “NATO 2030. United for a New Era” about strengthening the political dimension and consultation mechanisms of the Alliance. The report indicates a possible consensus on the expansion of the Alliance’s tasks, including on a common policy towards China. The document increases the chances that the allies will decide to start work on a new NATO strategy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and United States of America
14. The Importance of the Western Balkans in China’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China’s cooperation with the Western Balkans through the “17+1” format and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), among others, is primarily political. In the economic sphere, Chinese investments are to a large extent only declarations, and trade is marginal in comparison to cooperation with the EU or others. China’s goals are to gain political influence in future EU countries and limit their cooperation with the U.S. Competition with China in the region requires more intense EU-U.S. cooperation, made more difficult by the pandemic.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Investment, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and Balkans
15. Chinese Discourse on NATO
- Author:
- Justyna Szczudlik
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Chinese experts’ interest in NATO has been growing for a year. The reason is the debate on China that began in the Alliance last year. China treats NATO as part of its rivalry with the U.S., vindicated by Chinese analysts’ emphasis on divergences between members, critical assessments of U.S. NATO policy and their conciliatory approach to European members. The continuation of the Alliance debate on China, including recognizing it as a threat, may lead the latter to intensify efforts to widen the divisions and seek closer cooperation with Russia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
16. Consequences of Hong Kong’s National Security Law
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The National Security Law, imposed on Hong Kong by China on 30 June, has reduced protests against China’s policy. The scale of the restrictions, including those potentially affecting foreigners, and China’s supervision over the implementation of the law have already worsened the living conditions of Hong Kong residents and functioning of foreign companies. China’s actions caused an international reaction, mainly from the UK, the U.S. and the EU. Concerned about the safety of its citizens, the EU recommends that Member States suspend their extradition agreements with Hong Kong.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Law, European Union, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, Hong Kong, and United States of America
17. The Most Important Challenges in China’s Foreign Policy after the First Phase of the Pandemic
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China’s rivalry with the U.S. is intensifying. New American sanctions threaten, among others, Huawei’s global position. As a result of China’s aggressive foreign policy, relations with the EU and Australia have worsened, and the border conflict with India has intensified. To counter these failures and re-build their image, the Chinese authorities are trying to shift the responsibility for the problems to the U.S., strengthening anti-Western rhetoric, and presenting the world with new multilateral initiatives, such as one related to data security. With China’s foreign policy being idealogised, any successful cooperation with the EU on climate matters is unrealistic.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Borders, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, India, Asia, and Australia
18. Germany and the Three Seas Initiative
- Author:
- Tomasz Żornaczuk
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This year, Germany participated for the second time in a Three Seas Initiative (TSI) summit as an observer. Its participation is motivated by the desire to strengthen cooperation with Central European countries and reduce divisions in the EU. It also aims to limit U.S. economic ambitions in the region, with TSI a potential key vehicle for them. Germany’s efforts to gain membership should be seen as a foreign policy goal. Its success could contribute to influencing infrastructure priorities in Central Europe, if implemented under the TSI.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, North America, Central Europe, and United States of America
19. Israel’s Policy in the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The significance of the Eastern Mediterranean for Israel has increased in the last decade, an outcome of interlocking factors associated with the civil war in Syria, the deterioration of relations with Turkey, and discoveries of new gas fields. The effectiveness of Israeli policy, especially in energy issues, depends on strengthening relations with the states of the region, such as Egypt or Cyprus. Hence, regional cooperation will deepen, which may have a positive impact on Israel-EU relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, Egypt, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
20. Germany’s Policy Regarding Western Balkans’ EU Accession
- Author:
- Małgorzata Pawłowska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- President Emmanuel Macron’s opposition to the start of accession talks between the EU and Albania and Northern Macedonia may lead Germany to revise its current policy towards the Western Balkans. Germany will try to influence France’s position but, at the same time, it may decide to develop bilateral relations with the countries of the region and existing forms of cooperation in which Poland may be a partner.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, Germany, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania
21. Benefits of Regional Integration: What Sri Lanka Can Learn From Poland
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel, Shari Cooray, and Thileni Wickramaratne
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Although Poland and Sri Lanka are distant and differ significantly, a comparison of their experiences with regional cooperation reveals a few interesting observations. Poland's accession to the EU proves the economic and political benefits of deeper integration, may mitigate fears of marginalisation and domination by regional hegemons, and can disperse concerns over lost sovereignty. The EU integration model and the Polish experience could serve as an inspiration for Sri Lanka and other members of SAARC, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, and encourage them to revive their own integration process.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Economy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Asia, and Sri Lanka
22. The European Union and India: Partners in Democracy Promotion?
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Arab Spring has reinvigorated discussions about strengthening the EU's democratisation efforts. In this context, one may consider whether India could be an attractive partner for the EU in democracy promotion in Asia and elsewhere. It is not only the world's largest democracy but also a “strategic partner” of the EU, and it is willing to strengthen cooperation on regional and global levels. Shared values and adherence to democracy were seen as natural common ground for closer cooperation since the EU and India took on strategic cooperation in 2000. As early as the second EU–India Summit in 2001, both sides agreed to “step up efforts to promote democracy and to address human-rights issues at the international and bilateral levels”. In 2003, they reiterated their commitment to “work together to promote pluralistic democracy in the world by laying special emphasis on democratic policies and practice“. A special section on “Democracy and Human Rights” was included in a major document on a strategic partnership signed in 2005 in which both sides committed to “look together for possible synergies and initiatives to promote human rights and democracy”.Since then, however, democratisation has been silenced from the ongoing dialogue, and not many examples of the practical implementation of those aims can be found. In fact, democracy seems to have become more often a point of friction between the two than an area for cooperation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, India, Asia, and Arabia
23. Towards an Enhanced Polish-Spanish Partnership
- Author:
- Bartlomiej Znojek
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In Autumn 2011, parliamentary elections took place in Poland and Spain. In both countries centre-right parties came out triumphant, but the new governments will hold power in extremely challenging times. The much-desired economic recovery in the EU has yet to come to pass and economic issues will dominate national political agendas. Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk's coalition government of Civic Platform (PO) and its junior partner, Polish People's Party (PSL), will have to make significant reforms to reduce public debt and minimize the risk of recession. In Spain, however, Mariano Rajoy's People's Party (PP), the majority government, will have much harder work to do. It will need to restore international confidence in the Spanish economy, implement further measures aimed at stimulating economic growth and reducing the country's record-high unemployment. The success will depend on close cooperation among EU member states. Indeed, it is not only European economic recovery at stake but also the future of European integration. The present difficulties have been feeding euroscepticism and doubts about the integrity of the EU. With their strong record as the most vocal supporters and beneficiaries of the membership to the bloc, Poland and Spain could champion efforts advocating solidarity and further integration in the EU. The urgency and scale of the issues concerning the Union give a perfect opportunity for these new governments to renew a common agenda and enhance their bilateral relationship.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, and Spain
24. European Neighbourhood Policy: How to Reconcile EU's Offer with Neighbour's Expectations?
- Author:
- Beata Wojna and Monika Arcipowska
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since its launch in 2004, the ENP has succeeded in bringing about a strengthening of economic relations, especially trade, between the EU and its neighbours. However, the political record of the seven-year implementation of this policy is relatively poor. The violent, unprecedented socio-political changes in North Africa and the Middle East, which started in January 2011, revealed weaknesses and problems in the European policy towards its southern neighbours as developed in the framework of the Barcelona Process and the Union for the Mediterranean. Arab spring has shown that the EU support to introduce political reforms and to build and consolidate democracy in the southern neighbouring countries has yielded very limited results. The Eastern Partnership seems to be one of the few positive manifestations of the European Neighbourhood Policy's evolution in recent years but is not free from problems. The most tell-tale sign of the Eastern Partnership's deficiencies is a palpable relapse in democratisation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Middle East