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Begin New Search Topic Financial Crisis Publishing Institution The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University Publication Year within 25 Years

1. The Eye of the Storm

Author:
George G. Namur
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Lebanon is in the throes of an unprecedented crisis in its modern history. Starting 17 October 2019, the people of Lebanon have been protesting in the streets in a broad-based uprising. This paper highlights key post–civil war realities and practices that led to the country teetering and proposes a solution package to what ails the country and threatens its future.
Topic:
Corruption, Financial Crisis, Governance, Social Movement, Revolution, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

2. Why a Traditional Austerity Plan Would Exacerbate Lebanon’s Woes

Author:
Mounir Mahmalat
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Following the eruption of mass protests in autumn 2019, Lebanon’s economy slid into a deep financial and economic crisis. Given the magnitude of Lebanon’s contemporary economic woes, a bailout program with participation by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) appears unavoidable. However, while a bailout program could avoid formal default and cushion the immediate effects of financial impasse, the austerity measures that will come attached are unlikely to achieve their goals. This article argues that in clientelist polities with weak states such as Lebanon’s, austerity programs carry the risk of leaving unaddressed the underlying inefficiencies that led to economic decline in the first place. Instead of prioritizing budgetary measures and spending cuts in a conditional reform program, international donors should seize this novel window of opportunity to legitimize a reform plan with popular demands. Measures to increase judiciary independence and political accountability in particular bear a larger potential than austerity measures alone to change politics and finally create a sustainable economic model.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Austerity, Sustainability, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

3. The Cost of Holding Foreign Exchange Reserves

Author:
Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Eduardo Gómez
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Recent studies that have emphasized the costs of accumulating reserves for self-insurance purposes have overlooked two potentially important side-effects. First, the impact of the resulting lower spreads on the service costs of the stock of sovereign debt, which could substantially reduce the marginal cost of holding reserves. Second, when reserve accumulation reflects countercyclical LAW central bank interventions, the actual cost of reserves should be measured as the sum of valuation effects due to exchange rate changes and the local-to-foreign currency exchange rate differential (the inverse of a carry trade profit and loss total return flow), which yields a cost that is typically smaller than the one arising from traditional estimates based on the sovereign credit risk spreads. We document those effects empirically to illustrate that the cost of holding reserves may have been considerably smaller than usually assumed in both the academic literature and the policy debate.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Exchange Rate Policy, International Reserves, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

4. Measuring Venezuela Emigration with Twitter

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Julian Hinz, and Muhammad A. Yildirim
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Venezuela has seen an unprecedented exodus of people in recent months. In response to a dramatic economic downturn in which inflation is soaring, oil production tanking, and a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding, many Venezuelans are seeking refuge in neighboring countries. However, the lack of official numbers on emigration from the Venezuelan government, and receiving countries largely refusing to acknowledge a refugee status for affected people, it has been difficult to quantify the magnitude of this crisis. In this note we document how we use data from the social media service Twitter to measure the emigration of people from Venezuela. Using a simple statistical model that allows us to correct for a sampling bias in the data, we estimate that up to 2.9 million Venezuelans have left the country in the past year.
Topic:
Migration, Financial Crisis, Refugees, Internet, and Social Media
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

5. The Impact of the Crisis - Decline and Recovery

Author:
Joseph J. Stern
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
When the Asian financial crisis broke in mid-1997, the expectation was that Indonesia would weather the crisis with minimal damage. Actual events soon proved these expectations widely wrong and the Indonesian economy was more severely affected than other Asian countries. In part this outcome reflected Indonesia's fundamental institutional weakness that had been overlooked in the euphoria that marked international financial markets during the 1990s, and in part the impact of the financial crisis was magnified by inconsistent internal policies and by an overly ambitious IMF program that tried to achieve too much in to short a period of time. The result was not only a severe economic contraction with rising poverty levels and growing social unrest, but a political change that resulted, in the short-run, in further economic instability and effectively delayed Indonesia's recovery.
Topic:
Politics, Financial Crisis, Banks, Currency, IMF, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

6. The Rise and Fall of the Indonesian Economy

Author:
Joseph J. Stern
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The Indonesia crisis was particularly severe. What began as an economic crisis quickly evolved in to a political crisis. Most analysts failed to recognize the growing weaknesses of the economy and were caught by surprise. In part Indonesia's economic success over the period 1985 through 1997 and its records on policy reforms had persuaded many that, despite some obvious weaknesses, it would come through the Asian crisis with minimum damage. A closer analysis of the Indonesia's economic history shows that the initial reforms, carefully crafted by a highly respected group of economic technocrats, tackled many of the most serious distortions that held back economic growth. But as these reforms began to pay off in terms of higher growth rates, sharply declining poverty rates, and an increased level of integration in the global economy, the desire for further reforms waned. Over time the beneficiaries of the early reforms allied themselves with the political elites to block further reforms and in effect reduced the power of the technocrats to resist a return to the dirigiste tendencies that had marked much of Indonesia's early development efforts. While the reforms were important, in retrospect they were insufficient to create an institutional infrastructure that could weather a dramatic economic downturn.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Poverty, Financial Crisis, Reform, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

7. Targeted Programs in an Economic Crisis: Empirical Findings from Indonesia’s Experience

Author:
Lant Pritchett, Sudarno Sumarto, and Asep Suryahadia
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
In response to the economic, natural, and political crisis that enveloped Indonesia from August 1997 (beginning of depreciation) to May 1998 (resignation of Soeharto), the new government announced support for a set of “safety net” (JPS) programs in July 1998 budget. These included: (a) targeted sales of subsidized rice, (b) work creation programs, (c) scholarships to students and block grants to schools, (d) targeted health care subsidies, (e) community block grants. We used cross sectional and panel data to examine the targeting of these programs. First, "static participation incidence" (the relationship between program participation and household consumption expenditures) was substantially better than a uniform transfer, but substantially worse than perfect targeting --and remarkably similar for all of the JPS programs. Second, unlike standard static incidence measures, what we define as dynamic participation incidence — the relationship between changes in consumption expenditures and program participation — was very different between the JPS programs. The employment creation programs which relied on self-selection targeting was much more likely to reach those households with large shocks to their expenditures than programs based on administrative targeting such as subsidized rice sales, scholarships, and health subsidies. Third, larger coverage does not lead to either better or worse targeting: there is no general tendency across the programs for marginal incidence to be above, or below, average incidence. Fourth, the targeting design of many of the programs was not followed strictly in implementation in all of the programs. Community and individual characteristics that were de jure irrelevant played a role in targeting in practice. In the rice program, community influence led to the program going to many more than the eligible individuals. In other programs, individual characteristics appear to have influenced targeting.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia