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1. The IMF should enhance the role of SDRs to strengthen the international monetary system

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The special drawing right (SDR), issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has the potential to strengthen dramatically the international monetary system. Established in 1969 and allocated twice during its first decade, the SDR was in the institutional closet from 1980 until 2009, when $250 billion in SDRs was allocated to members of the IMF to help address the global financial crisis. In 2021 another $650 billion in SDRs was allocated to help address the coronavirus pandemic. The SDR has proved itself as a crisis instrument. This paper addresses critically the arguments against SDR allocations. It proposes regular annual SDR allocations, along with measures to make the SDR more attractive to critics and measures to build out the SDR system in support of the international monetary system. The paper includes an appendix on the history of the SDR. A second appendix analyzes SDR use following the 2009 and 2021 allocations and finds that contrary to the popular myth, many countries other than low-income members of the IMF benefited directly in multiple ways from those allocations.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Fiscal resiliency in a deeply uncertain world: The role of semiautonomous discretion

Author:
Peter R. Orszag, Robert E. Rubin, and Joseph E. Stiglitz
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Orszag, Rubin, and Stiglitz outline a new fiscal framework that they argue would better equip policymakers to face deep uncertainties about future interest rates (which, they say, may not remain low forever), hard-to-predict global shocks, and climate risks. They reject fiscal anchors—simple limits on deficits or debt as a share of GDP that governments adopt to check their spending and borrowing—that have historically guided fiscal policy and believe any attempts to modify such targets for the current period of low interest rates are likely to fail. Instead they propose making the budget respond more automatically to economic distress (through stronger automatic stabilizers) and to long-term fiscal pressures (e.g., embedding adjustment mechanisms in health care and pension programs), as well as creating an infrastructure program and extending debt maturities to insure against interest rate changes. Such a "streamlined dashboard" would then allow policymakers to use discretion as necessary to take any additional actions—either to provide more stimulus during short-term difficulties or to adjust the automatic features themselves—rather than adhering to fiscal targets that may no longer be appropriate when economic conditions change.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and Fiscal Deficit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Startups in the United States during the pandemic reflect some dynamism amid job losses

Author:
Simeon Djankov and Eva (Yiwen) Zhang
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
New business applications have surged in the United States since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth is driven largely by startups in online retail, transportation, and personal services. Many of these new entrepreneurs are self-employed and were likely laid off and forced into entrepreneurship by necessity. No official data are available yet on the number of businesses destroyed in 2020, because business data for firms that close without entering bankruptcy are lagging. But the authors calculate that firm births may have surpassed firm deaths during the pandemic. While this boom in business entry is a tribute to the adaptability and potential innovative spirit in US capitalism, one should not be overly optimistic about jobs created in this wave of startups. As many of these new startups are by people forced to strike out on their own, the number of jobs created per new firm is even smaller than it was during previous US recessions. And like online businesses started around the last recession (e.g., Uber, Airbnb, and Venmo), some of these new firms may turn out to be major contenders in their sectors, displacing workers employed by their traditional rivals.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4. Low inflation bends the Phillips curve around the world: Extended results

Author:
Jami Forbes, Joseph E. Gagnon, and Christopher G. Collins
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper revises and extends PIIE Working Paper 20-6. It continues to find strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is "low"—which our baseline model defines as less than 3 percent. The nonlinear curve is steep when output is above potential (slack is negative) but flat when output is below potential (slack is positive) so that further increases in economic slack have little effect on inflation. This finding is consistent with evidence of downward nominal wage and price rigidity. When inflation is high, the Phillips curve is linear and relatively steep. These results are robust to placing the threshold between the high and low inflation regimes at 2, 3, or 4 percent inflation or for a threshold based on country-specific medians of inflation. In this nonlinear model, international factors play a large role in explaining headline inflation (albeit less so for core inflation), a role that has been increasing since the global financial crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Inflation, and Philips Curve
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Sovereign debt restructuring: The centrality of the IMF's role

Author:
Sean Hagan
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Over the past 40 years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played a central role in the sovereign debt restructuring process. If the COVID-19 pandemic leads to a significant wave of sovereign debt distress, this role will be closely scrutinized. The paper analyzes how IMF policies have evolved to shape the incentives of sovereigns and their creditors at each stage of the sovereign debt restructuring process. It also identifies a number of issues that the IMF will likely have to address as a result of the pandemic, including (1) assessment of debt sustainability in a macroeconomic environment of considerable uncertainty, (2) treatment of official bilateral creditors, and (3) potential benefits—and challenges—of introducing additional incentives to maximize creditor participation in any debt restructuring.
Topic:
Debt, Emerging Markets, Government, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. When more delivers less: Comparing the US and French COVID-19 crisis responses

Author:
Jérémie Cohen-Setton and Jean Pisani-Ferry
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The US package of measures to help households hit by the economic shock from the COVID-19 crisis, including the Paycheck Protection Program, is almost twice as large in proportion of GDP as the French package, but it has proven less effective in curbing unemployment because of poor design and implementation. In contrast, the increase in the unemployment rate in France has been five times less than the increase in the United States. Cohen-Setton and Pisani-Ferry dive beneath the unreliable headline numbers to assess the effectiveness of government support provided to households in March–May 2020 in the two countries. They conclude that the French approach (mirrored in some other European countries) delivered a bigger bang for the buck. But the fact that the US approach has fallen short should not diminish the significance of the policy shift signaled by the enactment of measures to maintain household income.
Topic:
Education, Financial Crisis, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, France, North America, and United States of America

7. A possible IMF Pandemic Support Facility for emerging-market countries

Author:
Matthew Fisher and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adapts its strategy to meet the challenges of the COVID-19 crisis, it should develop a new temporary lending instrument to assist emerging-market countries facing pandemic-related fiscal and balance of payments difficulties. A dedicated IMF Pandemic Support Facility would help meet the exceptional financing needs of emerging-market countries at a time of high uncertainty while providing more lenient repayment periods and also allow the Fund to be more flexible in its operations with minimum disruptions to its existing facilities.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Lebanon's monetary meltdown tests the limits of central banking

Author:
Patrick Honohan and Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Lebanon has spent the last 20 years juggling an excessive level of debt and current account deficits. Apparent financial wizardry by the central bank (Banque du Liban) helped keep the exchange rate fixed, inflation low, and debt service flowing until 2020. But these efforts merely postponed the inevitable, at a high cost. Repeated shocks to the Lebanese economy and governance weaknesses pushed the financial contraption over the cliff before the COVID-19 outbreak. The explosion that ripped through the Port of Beirut in early August added to the disarray. The Lebanese pound has crashed, the government has defaulted on some of its debt, and restrictions have been placed on deposit withdrawals and access to foreign exchange. Lebanon faces an uncertain future of uneven suffering. It will need foreign assistance, but such assistance will not extend to covering the losses of the banking system. How the losses are distributed will set the scene for Lebanon’s future development. Policymakers should aim for fairness, predictability, and stability without overindebtedness.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Central Bank, and Banking
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

9. Sovereign debt relief in the global pandemic: Lessons from the 1980s

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The coronavirus pandemic and an unprecedented global recession have triggered fears of a debt crisis requiring massive intervention by international financial institutions as well as debt restructuring by private and official creditors. Truman draws two lessons for the current crisis, based on his ring-side experience during the debt crises of the 1980s. First, the initiation of debt relief will require a broad consensus among four groups: the borrowing countries, their foreign creditors, the authorities of the countries in which those creditors are located, and international institutions. Reaching consensus takes time. Second, implementation of the consensus framework will be case by case, because of differences in the political and economic circumstances of each country, which will militate against simple replication for different countries and against implementation all at the same time. Any framework will not be self-implementing. While the call for rapid action is understandable, applying a one-size-fits-all approach will not be possible.
Topic:
Debt, Emerging Markets, History, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, World Bank, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. International Coordination of Economic Policies in the Global Financial Crisis: Successes, Failures, and Consequences

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper evaluates international efforts to diagnose the global financial crisis and decide on appropriate responses, the treatments that were agreed and adopted, and the successes and failures as the crisis unfolded. International coordination of economic policies eventually contributed importantly to containing the crisis, but the authorities failed to agree on a diagnosis and the consequent need for joint action until the case was obvious. The policy actions that were adopted were powerful and effective, but they may have undermined prospects for coordinated responses to future crises.
Topic:
Government, International Cooperation, Financial Crisis, and Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. Iran Has a Slow Motion Banking Crisis

Author:
Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Suffering under Western sanctions and security challenges, Iran faces problems as well from its fragile banking system, which has been languishing for decades. Liquidity and solvency weaknesses pose a growing risk to the country’s financial stability. The sanctions reimposed by the United States in 2018 have heightened these vulnerabilities, but the problems also result from the heavy-handed role of the state, corruption, and the Central Bank of Iran’s failure to regulate and supervise the system. Iran’s ability to avoid a run on its banks is aided by their reliance on liquidity assistance, deposit insurance, and regulatory forbearance from the central bank. Depositors are forced to be patient because they have limited options to invest elsewhere. Iran has thus avoided a full-blown banking crisis. But the situation is not sustainable. Banks remain susceptible to external shocks, which could come from a complete halt to oil exports or war.
Topic:
Security, Financial Crisis, Sanctions, Banks, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

12. International Coordination of Economic Policies in the Global Financial Crisis: Successes, Failures, and Consequences

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper evaluates international efforts to diagnose the global financial crisis and decide on appropriate responses, the treatments that were agreed and adopted, and the successes and failures as the crisis unfolded. International coordination of economic policies eventually contributed importantly to containing the crisis, but the authorities failed to agree on a diagnosis and the consequent need for joint action until the case was obvious. The policy actions that were adopted were powerful and effective, but they may have undermined prospects for coordinated responses to future crises.
Topic:
International Affairs, Financial Crisis, Economic Policy, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Keeping Up with the Future: Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability and Geopolitical Risk

Author:
Cullen S. Hendrix and Sooyeon Kang
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The nature and magnitude of geopolitical risk is changing more rapidly than the ability to anticipate it, with increasingly severe economic consequences. This Policy Brief discusses the economic costs and risks associated with episodes of political instability, arguing that firms, government agencies, and international institutions must update their forecasting and risk assessment efforts to take global factors into account. Since the global financial crisis, political instability has shifted from emerging-market countries in the developing world to larger, more globally impactful econo¬mies. Acknowledging this changing risk profile—and developing better tools to predict major episodes of instability—will allow both policymakers and firms to plan with greater confidence.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus