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2. Policy Liberalization and FDI Growth, 1982 to 2006
- Author:
- Matthew Adler and Gary Clyde Hufbauer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Over the last three decades the global economy has expanded in a remarkable fashion. While nominal world GDP has increased four times, world bilateral trade flows have grown more than six-fold, and the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown by roughly 20 times since 1980. The sources of global trade and investment growth are well known—general economic expansion, policy liberalization, and better communications and technology—but the impact of each source is unclear. In this paper we attempt to uncover the contribution of policy liberalization to the rising ratios of US inward and outward FDI stocks to GDP over the last three decades.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
3. Can Doha Still Deliver on the Development Agenda?
- Author:
- Kimberly Elliott
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, so named because it was launched in the Qatari capital, is in deep trouble. Negotiators have yet to meet any of the interim deadlines for completing the talks, and they missed another at the end of April 2006. While it is still possible to finish the round by early 2007, the odds are diminishing by the day, and this deadline matters more than most. Trade promotion authority (TPA) in the United States will expire in June 2007, and if the round does not make significant progress before then, TPA might not be renewed, and the round would likely drag on for several more years.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
4. Negotiating the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott, Scott C. Bradford, and Thomas Moll
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Five years ago the Institute published Free Trade between Korea and the United States? by Inbom Choi and Jeffrey J. Schott, which analyzed the potential benefits and costs of pursuing a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). At the time, neither government had vetted the idea in bilateral consultations, though some business groups in each country—and some members of the US Congress—had voiced support for deepening US-Korea economic ties through an FTA.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and Korea
5. The US Current Account, New Economy Services, and Implications for Sustainability
- Author:
- Catherine L. Mann
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This essay considers the implications for sustainability of the US current account of widespread uptake of new economy services around the world. The main contribution of this paper is to estimate new income elasticities for US exports and imports of services that have become increasingly internationally tradable on account of the networked information technologies characteristic of the new economy. These elasticity estimates are then incorporated into a simple model of the US current account. Assumptions on the increase in global growth coming from widespread uptake of new economy services around the world are taken from other sources. The new estimates of income elasticities and the assumptions on global growth yield a trajectory for the US current account deficit that is compared to a base case without increased integration of new economy services in international trade and around the world. The paper concludes that although new economy services reduce the asymmetry in estimated income elasticities and contribute to raising global growth, reasonable estimates of these two structural improvements are not sufficient to stabilize the US current account deficit, in part because the share of new economy services in trade is still small.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
6. More Pain, More Gain: Politics and Economics of Eliminating Tariffs
- Author:
- Gary Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- A good proposal to eliminate tariffs must take into account both the pain and gain that developing countries are likely to experience. The authors take the measure of these costs and benefits and urge rich countries to maximize the benefits to developing countries while giving them ample time to accept, and adjust to, the changes that trade liberalization will require. But trade liberalization should not stop with tariff proposals. The United States and other industrial countries should generously reduce subsidies to farmers and eliminate nontariff barriers on agricultural imports. The United States should offer more concessions on services trade, particularly in its allowances for temporary foreign workers. Unless rich countries put more on the table, a WTO agreement to eliminate tariff barriers may be postponed for years.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- United States
7. The Impact of Economic Sanctions on US Trade: Andrew Rose's Gravity Model
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Barbara Oegg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- With the end of the Cold War, the focus of US foreign policy changed—and so did that of economic sanctions. Partly because of increased cooperation within the UN framework, economic sanctions were imposed so routinely in the early 1990s that scholars called that period the sanctions decade. This proliferation sparked intense debate about the effectiveness of sanctions as a policy tool and moved US sanctions policy to the center of public discourse.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
8. The Foreign Sales Corporation: Reaching the Last Act?
- Author:
- Gary Hufbauer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Some trade disputes—like long Russian novels—never seem to end. The United States, Europe, and other trading nations have disputed the taxation of export earnings since the 1970s. To understand why the Foreign Sales Corporation (FSC) dispute is so hard to resolve, we must start with a historical tour.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Europe
9. Moral Hazard and the U.S. Stock Market: Analyzing the “Greenspan Put”?
- Author:
- Marcus Miller, Paul Weller, and Lei Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- When the risk premium in the US stock market fell far below its historic level, Shiller (2000) attributed this to a bubble driven by psychological factors. As an alternative explanation, we point out that the observed risk premium may be reduced by one-sided intervention policy on the part of the Federal Reserve, which leads investors into the erroneous belief that they are insured against downside risk. By allowing for partial credibility and state dependent risk aversion, we show that this 'insurance'—referred to as the Greenspan put—is consistent with the observation that implied volatility rises as the market falls. Our bubble, like Shiller's, involves market psychology, but what we describe is not so much 'irrational exuberance' as exaggerated faith in the stabilizing power of Mr. Greenspan.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
10. Finance and Changing US-Japan Relations: Convergence Without Leverage—Until Now
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In the postwar era, US-Japan economic relations have been characterized by substantial tensions, yet this has not damaged the underlying security relationship or critically harmed the multilateral economic framework. In fact, these two economies have become more integrated over time even as these tensions played out. These tensions, however, have required an enormous expenditure of political capital and officials' time on both sides of the Pacific and have led to foregone opportunities for institution building and policy coordination. They have deepened since Japan “caught up” with the United States around 1980, and Japanese and US firms began increasingly to compete for profits and market share in the same sectors. Moreover, as both the US and Japanese economies continue to mature – both in terms of the age of their populations and their industrial mix – they will likely face even greater tensions between them over allocating the management and costs of industrial adjustment.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, and East Asia