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41. Alternative North Korean Nuclear Futures

Author:
Shane Smith
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
On February 12, 2013, North Korea’s state media announced that it had conducted a third nuclear test “of a smaller and light A-bomb unlike the previous ones, yet with great explosive power…demonstrating the good performance of the DPRK's nuclear deterrence that has become diversified.”[1] Since then, there has been renewed debate and speculation over the nature and direction of North Korea’s nuclear program. Can it develop weapons using both plutonium and uranium? How far away is it from having a deliverable warhead and how capable are its delivery systems? How many and what kind of weapons is it looking to build? These are not easy questions to answer. North Korea remains one of the most notoriously secret nations, and details about its nuclear program are undoubtedly some of its most valued secrets. Yet, the answers to these questions have far reaching implications for U.S. and regional security.
Topic:
International Affairs and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Nuclear Energy Basics, Part 2: Reactors and Nuclear Fuel Making

Author:
Henry D. Sokolski
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
Many of the materials, facilities, and technologies used to produce nuclear energy can be used to create nuclear weapons material. In nearly all stages in the production of peaceful nuclear energy, it is difficult to differentiate between peaceful activities and those useful to produce explosive materials for nuclear weap- ons. The purpose of this primer is to inform the reader about the basic steps of the nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear energy production, and to draw attention to those aspects of the fuel cycle that present the greatest nuclear weapons proliferation risks.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

43. Nuclear Energy Basics, Part 1: Fission, Fusion, and the Bomb

Author:
Henry D. Sokolski
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC), a 501(c)3 nonprofit organization, is a nonpartisan, educational organization founded in 1994 to promote a better understanding of strategic weapons proliferation issues. NPEC educates policymakers, journalists, and university professors about proliferation threats and possible new policies and measures to meet them.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

44. The Nuclear Terrorism Threat: How Real Is It?

Author:
Michael Brian Jenkins and John Lauder
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
After the Cold War and nearly 70 years of waging war against communism, the United States and its key allies have adopted the war against terror as their new organizing principal. The king of terrorist threats, however, is nuclear terrorism. As Vice President Dick Cheney once argued, “if there is a one percent chance” of a terrorist developing a nuclear weapon, “we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response.”1
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. How Dark Might East Asia’s Nuclear Future Be?

Author:
Henry D. Sokolski
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
Long considered unlikely, the prospect of South Korea and Japan getting nuclear weapons and China and North Korea significantly ramping up their arsenals has become the next big worry. This June, CIA Director John Brennan testified that nuclear proliferation was “a blinking red light” and spotlighted North Korea’s nuclear misbehavior as a key concern.1 His testimony came only weeks after a The New York Times interview of Donald Trump in which the Republican presidential hopeful emphasized the inevitabil- ity and possible benefits of Japan and South Korea going nuclear.2 Since then, the question of whether or not it is in Washington’s interest to push nonproliferation in East Asia has been a hot topic in and outside the Beltway.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
East Asia

46. SERIOUS RULES FOR NUCLEAR POWER WITHOUT PROLIFERATION*

Author:
Henry D. Sokolski and Victor Gilinsky
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
In this chapter, we try to step back from the day-to- day struggles in Washington, DC, over nuclear non- proliferation policy to ask what measures we would need to have in place to be reasonably confident that expanding nuclear power globally will not increase the number of nuclear weapons-armed states. We recognize that, since the start of the Atoms for Peace Program in the mid-1950s, the United States has sup- ported worldwide use of nuclear power. It also has op- posed the spread of nuclear weapons and supported measures to control the nuclear weapons proliferation risks inherent in spreading nuclear technology for civilian purposes. The principal administrative ele- ments of this nonproliferation effort are the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the associated in- spection activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as well as various national and inter- national export controls.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

47. Alternative North Korean Nuclear Futures

Author:
Shane Smith
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
On February 12, 2013, North Korea’s state media announced that it had conducted a third nuclear test “of a smaller and light A-bomb unlike the previous ones, yet with great explosive power…demonstrating the good performance of the DPRK's nuclear deterrence that has become diversified.”[1] Since then, there has been renewed debate and speculation over the nature and direction of North Korea’s nuclear program. Can it develop weapons using both plutonium and uranium? How far away is it from having a deliverable warhead and how capable are its delivery systems? How many and what kind of weapons is it looking to build? These are not easy questions to answer. North Korea remains one of the most notoriously secret nations, and details about its nuclear program are undoubtedly some of its most valued secrets. Yet, the answers to these questions have far reaching implications for U.S. and regional security.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
North Korea

48. "Japanese Strategic Weapons Programs and Strategies: Future Scenarios and Alternative Approaches

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
The balance of power in Northeast Asia is shifting in ways that are dangerous to the security of Japan. That is certainly how the picture has appeared to the eyes of many observers in recent years.The reasons are many, and they are compelling. First, China’s emergence as a regional military power has taken place in a far more disruptive fashion than was expected. Attempts to shape China into a “responsible stakeholder” have failed. Beijing now threatens Tokyo with a growing number of coercive air and maritime operations around the Japanadministered Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands. Chinese fighters, bombers, ships, and submarines have greatly expanded the scope of their training operations. They now frequently pass through Japan’s Ryukyu Island Chain on their way out into the Philippine Sea where they conduct exercises that undermine confidence in the ability of the U.S. Navy to intervene in a regional conflict.
Topic:
International Affairs and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Japan

49. How South Korea Could Acquire and Deploy Nuclear Weapons

Author:
James Fergusson
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
Political leaders and defense planners in the Republic of Korea (ROK), or South Korea, are cognizant that worsening security in Northeast Asia could lead to additional states, including the ROK, to consider and even develop nuclear weapons. In particular, Korean President Park Geun-hye warned in May 2014 that another nuclear bomb test by North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) would be “crossing a Rubicon” and would make it “difficult for us to prevent a nuclear domino from occurring in this area
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
South Korea

50. If Japan and South Korea Go Nuclear: Two Military-Technical Scenarios

Author:
Ian Easton and Charles Ferguson
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
America's security alliances with Japan and South Korea made headlines last month. In addition to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's address to a joint session of Congress, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter visited both Japan and South Korea. Their main focus was on how to fortify Seoul's and Tokyo's security alliance ties with the US against possible Chinese and North Korean military threats.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus