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1. Averting a Global Calamity? Trump and Xi at the G20

Author:
John Edwards
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The outlines of a trade deal between the United States and China are there. But without a return to the negotiating table, the dispute could rapidly escalate, magnifying the damage to world growth. With the Osaka G20 meeting looming, Chinese analysts and policymakers visited in Beijing are pessimistic about the prospects for a trade deal with the United States. If they are right, global financial markets are in for a much wilder shock than anything yet seen in this quarrel. Yet much of a deal has already been agreed, while the consequences of not reaching a deal have become increasingly dire.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2. ASEAN-Australia Relations: The Suitable Status Quo

Author:
Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australia’s dialogue partner relationship with ASEAN is more suitable for Australian interests in Southeast Asia than the idea of ASEAN membership. Australian membership in ASEAN is currently not possible. Australia’s dialogue partner relationship with ASEAN supports Australian policy autonomy and Australia’s engagement with Southeast Asia. The ASEAN–Australia dialogue partner relationship has significant room for growth.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Partnerships, Regional Integration, and Trade
Political Geography:
Australia and Southeast Asia

3. Safeguarding Australia's Security Interests Through Closer Pacific Ties

Author:
Greg Colton
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Greater Australian engagement in the Pacific Islands region is needed if Canberra wants to ensure regional stability and underpin Australia’s national security. Inconsistent engagement by Australia, the United States, France and New Zealand in the Pacific Islands region has created space that non-traditional powers have exploited to engage with sovereign Pacific Island states. There is an increasing risk of geostrategic competition in the region, particularly with the growing influence of China and the economic leverage it holds over some indebted Pacific Island nations. The Australian Government should pursue a deliberate strategy of forging stronger links with its traditional partners in the region, and more equitable partnerships with its Pacific Island neighbours, if it is to underpin regional stability and strengthen Australia’s national security.
Topic:
International Relations, National Security, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Economy
Political Geography:
China, France, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

4. Northeast Asia's Turbulent Triangle: Korea-China-Japan Relations

Author:
Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Northeast Asia is one of the most important crucibles of global economic and strategic change, and it is far from a stable one. The modern histories of China, Japan and South Korea were forged by Japan's colonisation of China and Korea and the Korean War that divided the peninsula and saw China on the side of North Korea and Japan on the side of South Korea. This recent history has left the bilateral relations on each side of this turbulent triangle strained by a lack of trust, popular antipathy and unresolved territorial disputes. As noted in the project's Beijing workshop, the stalled trilateral free trade agreement negotiations between the three Northeast Asian neighbours, launched with great hope in 1997, have been the victim of this turbulence and strain.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and North America

5. Australia-China Ties: In Search of Political Trust

Author:
Linda Jakobson
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australia's political relationship with China is far less developed than its economic relationship. This is detrimental to Australia's interests because China is not merely an economic power but also a crucial political and security actor in the region. Underdeveloped political and strategic relations between Canberra and Beijing weaken Australia's ability to exert influence regionally.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Australia

6. The UN Security Council seat and Australia's diplomacy for the Asian century

Author:
Alex Oliver
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
It's been a big year for Australia's foreign relations. It's been a particularly big year for Australia's multilateralism and its position in the United Nations, with the win in late October of the seat on the UN Security Council after much speculation, controversy, partisanship and criticism.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and International Security
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

7. So what? Matching policy to Australian interests in West Asia

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Before 2001, Australian policy in the region defined here as West Asia – that stretching from India's western borders across to the eastern shores of the Mediterranean, encompassing Southwest Asia, the Persian Gulf and the Levant – focused on two broad objectives: supporting American-led efforts to promote regional stability, and securing opportunities for Australian exports.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia

8. Looking after Australians overseas

Author:
Hugh White
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the problem? As more and more Australians travel and live overseas, the Australian Government finds itself under increasing pressure to provide consular help and support, especially in emergencies. Providing these consular services is a traditional role for government representatives abroad, but both the scale and the nature of the demand have grown significantly in recent years. The demand from Australians for evacuation from South Lebanon during the conflict there last year demonstrated how far community expectations of the nature and scale of consular help have increased. This raises two problems. First, there is an issue of expectation management; community expectations are starting to run ahead of what can practicably be provided. Second, there is a problem of resources and priorities. While the consular workload has grown, the resources of Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade have not, and the result has inevitably been a diversion of resources away from other diplomatic tasks. That is something Australia can ill afford.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:
Australia and Lebanon

9. Uranium for India: avoiding the pitfalls

Author:
Ron Walker
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The prospect of Australia's selling uranium to India offers major potential benefits both for our exports and our foreign policy. There is however a conundrum as to how this could be done in a way that advances rather than damages Australia's interest in the global enterprise to resist the spread of nuclear weapons and in a rules-based international order.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
India and Asia

10. Reinventing 'West Asia': How the 'Middle east' and 'South Asia' Fit into Australia's Strategic Picture

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australia's economic, political and strategic interests in the Middle East and South Asia are growing and policymakers are gradually reassessing the place of these regions in Australia's overall strategic calculus. There is a risk, however, that in this reassessment, the two regions will continue to be viewed distinctly - a distinction that is increasingly artificial in strategic terms.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

11. Geeing up the G-20

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell and Dr. Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Globalisation implies a big increase in the payoffs from successful cross-border economic cooperation. Yet the main international institutional mechanisms designed to facilitate such cooperation, the G7 and the IMF, are not up to it. Both the G7’s membership and the IMF’s governance structure significantly under-represent several key players in the modern global economy, a potentially fatal handicap when it comes to tackling some of the most pressing challenges now facing policymakers. Moreover, neither gives Australia a permanent seat at the top table.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

12. Koizumi's legacy: Japan's new politics

Author:
Dr. Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
September 20th will be a landmark day in Japanese politics. Junichiro Koizumi will step down as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and, consequently, as prime minister of Japan. The fact that Koizumi will be stepping down on his own terms as Japan's longest-serving post-war leader and with his favoured successor, chief cabinet secretary Shinzo Abe, the clear front-runner to replace him, indicates just how much this self-styled maverick has recast Japanese politics. Abe's (likely) victory will institutionalise his predecessor's political legacy. This will ensure that Koizumi was not simply a charismatic flash in the pan, as his most trenchant critics inside the LDP and out had hoped, but a political reformer who has changed the nature of Japanese politics.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Japan and Israel

13. Fuelling confrontation: Iran, the US and the oil weapon

Author:
Anthony Bubalo, Mark P Thirlwell, and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Iranian nuclear issue has entered a critical phase. A draft UN Security Council resolution has been circulated that could pave the way for political and economic sanctions. Should these fail to change Iran's position, the likelihood of military action will grow towards the end of 2006 and into 2007. At the same time, high oil prices have bolstered Iran's ability to defy demands that it give up uranium enrichment and provide greater transparency with respect to its nuclear program. Given current supply, demand and price indicators, oil provides Iran with a very potent weapon with which to respond to punitive measures. However, the economic and political fallout produced by the use of the oil in this way makes it likely Tehran would use such a weapon cautiously.
Topic:
International Relations, Energy Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and Australia/Pacific

14. The testament of Solomons: RAMSI and international state-building

Author:
Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The phenomenon of state failure and its remedies constitute a growth area of international politics, partly because of the recognition that state failure generates security threats and partly because it is so very difficult. This Lowy Institute Analysis identifies the critical elements of one small but significant case, about which there is growing international interest: the Australian-led Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI). The background to the mission was the long-standing tension between the peoples of the two main islands, Guadalcanal and Malaita, which developed in the period 1998-2002 into militant violence which then mutated into widespread criminality and thuggery. Acting on a request from Honiara, the Australian Government and its regional partners elected to lead a new kind of statebuilding intervention.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

15. Iran, the international community and the nuclear issue: where to next?

Author:
Anthony Bubalo and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The international impasse over Iran\'s nuclear program is entering a critical phase. The compromise being offered by the international community, whereby Iran would carry out sensitive uranium enrichment work in Russia, is unlikely to be accepted in full by Tehran. The hardline rhetoric of new President Ahmedinejad is further limiting the prospects of a diplomatic solution being found. As a result, the issue is likely to come before the Security Council. Once in New York there are a number of ways it could play out. But at this stage it is not clear what the Council would be able to do to force a change of behaviour from Tehran. Faced with poor options all round, Washington may feel at some point that it has to risk the uncertain results of limited air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities to delay what it regards as the unthinkable - a nuclear armed Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

16. Angels and Dragons: Asia, the UN, reform and the next Secretary-General

Author:
Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The relationship between the UN and Asia can seem unfamiliar and distant. Most of New York's energy is consumed by the Middle East and Africa rather than Northeast, South and Southeast Asia; the international organisation can seem Atlanticist in orientation. On the other side of the Pacific Ocean the strict view of state sovereignty adopted by many Asian capitals leads them to keep the UN at arm's length. As always, however, the story is more complex: we need to differentiate between the UN's work in Asia on the one hand, and Asian behaviour at the UN on the other. Since 1945, the UN has contributed to the Asian security order but only at the margins, its security role circumscribed by power politics and Asian approaches to security. By contrast, Asian states have always been keen to exercise their prerogatives in New York, viewing their UN activities as a marker of sovereignty and a source of prestige. The Brief reviews this history and sets out the current stances of the three major regional powers — China, India, and Japan — towards the UN.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, India, and Asia

17. Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The current fragile ceasefire between Palestinian militants and Israel has raised hopes of an end to four years of violence. To sustain that ceasefire both Israel and the Palestinian Authority must meet their respective commitments under the "Road Map for Middle bast Peace". For the PA this means preventing terrorist attacks against Israel and undertaking political, legal and security reforms. These reforms are also critical to meeting the Palestinian public's own demands for an end to lawlessness and corruption. Given Australia's expertise in legal and institutional development, the Australian government's commitment to promoting democracy and peace in the Middle bast and its sound relationship with both the PA and the government of Israel, Australia should lend what support it can to the Palestinian effort to establish strong foundations for a stable, prosperous and democratic Palestinian state.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Australia

18. Balancing act: Taiwan's cross-strait challenge

Author:
Malcolm Cook and Craig Meer
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Taiwan is in the middle of a deep social transformation that is redefining the way its people identify themselves, how it sees its place in the world and, most urgently, its relationship with China. Taiwan's metamorphosis, and China's reaction to it, are making it more difficult to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait. Washington and its regional allies, including Australia, need to understand these changes better and to incorporate responses to them into their policies.
Topic:
International Relations and Democratization
Political Geography:
China, Washington, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia

19. Australians speak 2005: public opinion and foreign policy

Author:
Ivan Cook
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australians feel positive and self-confident about Australia's place in the world, but we also have a realistic sense of our limitations and vulnerabilities. A vast majority believe Australia is 'a good international citizen' (82%), 'important in Asia' (82%), and 'well-placed to succeed in a competitive world' (79%), while few agree with the notion that we are 'unimportant in global politics' (37%). But three quarters of respondents also think we are 'vulnerable to external threats' (76%), and while the population is evenly split on whether we are 'independent minded', 65% think we are 'a follower not a leader'.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

20. Sensible climate policy

Author:
Warwick McKibbin
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Kyoto Protocol enters into force on February 16, 2005. Nearly thirteen years after negotiations began at the Rio Earth Summit and seven years after the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated, this should be a cause for global celebration. Yet the basic tenets on which the Kyoto Protocol are built are flawed and leave it worryingly vulnerable to failure. Already proponents of Kyoto are looking for alternatives “beyond Kyoto”. It is no accident that it has taken so long for the Protocol to enter into force with so few of the major future greenhouse emitters effective participants.
Topic:
International Relations, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

21. The 'Khmer Islam' community in Cambodia and its foreign patrons

Author:
Milton Osborne
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Apart from brief references to the arrest in May 2003 of suspected members of Jemaah Islamiyah in Phnom Penh and the later revelation that Hambali (Riduan Isamuddin) had spent six months in Cambodia before being captured in Thailand, the international media have paid little attention to Cambodia's 'indigenous' Islamic community, the Khmer Islam (Islamic Cambodians), numbering around 500,000 in a total population of 12-13 million. Generally described as 'Chams', the majority are the descendants of immigrants from the once-powerful kingdom of Champa located on the central coast of modern Vietnam. But Cambodia's Islamic community also includes the descendants of Malay settlers, perhaps 15% of the total. Members of this latter group are known as Chvea. For the most part living apart from the ethnic Cambodian population both during colonial times (1863-1953) and following independence, the Khmer Islam community played little part in politics. During the Pol Pot regime (1975-79) members of the community suffered grievously, with an estimated 90,000 dying from executions, overwork and hunger and disease out of a total of250,000. Following the fall of Pol Pot the position of the Cambodian Islamic community has attracted the interest of co-religionists in the Middle East and Southeast Asia who have contributed substantial funds for the construction of mosques, the support of Koranic schools and financing of participation in the haj. At the same time there has been a substantial growth in the interchange between members of the Khmer Islam community and fellow Muslims in southem Thailand and Malaysia. Overall, the community remains generally poor and disadvantaged and so potentially unlnerable to external influences.
Topic:
International Relations and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia

22. The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: China in the limelight

Author:
John Bowan
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Beijing's successful bid for the 2008 Olympic Games gives China a unique opportunity to signal its emergence as a leading player in the mainstream of international affairs. The Games will provide a unique opportunity to showcase to the international public, as well as to foreign governments and international business, China's technical and organisational capabilities, its cultural and social achievements, and its standing and potential as a global economic power and partner. The ongoing strong commitment to the Games by the national Government, and the rapid and efficient progress made to date by the Beijing Olympic organisers, are impressive; from a technical point of view, China's challenging Olympic project is on track. The Games will make some limited contribution to the extraordinary economic and technological development China is making, particularly in environmental protection. Similarly, the Games have the potential to make some incremental contribution to improving human rights in China. Their significance as a force for change in this area should not be overestimated, however, and the evidence is that the Olympic influence on China's human rights has so far been limited. Despite the good cooperation at the Olympic level that has developed between China and Taiwan in recent years, the hosting of the Games would not stand in the way of drastic action by China if Taiwan pursued independence beyond the limits of its tolerance. Australia's cooperative Olympic links with China, developed during Beijing's bid, add a valuable dimension to the strong and important relationship between the two countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Development
Political Geography:
China and Asia