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62. Britain's No-Deal Debacle? The Costs at Home and Likely Setbacks Abroad
- Author:
- John Ryan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- For much of the past four years, and increasingly in the past few months, the United Kingdom has drifted in the direction of a No-Deal Brexit. In this Strategic Update, John Ryan explores the economic and political consequences for the United Kingdom of such a situation, as well as the domestic factors in Ireland and the United States that may provide unanticipated problems for the Johnson government.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Politics, Brexit, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, and United States of America
63. Myanmar's Search for Normalcy in an Abnormal World
- Author:
- Matthew B. Arnold
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- For much of the past seventy-plus years since its independence, Myanmar, often known as Burma, was an isolated military dictatorship plagued by seemingly perpetual civil war. Myanmar’s evolution from military dictatorship began in 2010 when a wide-ranging reform process began. While much has changed in the years since, much has not. Myanmar’s transition can best be understood as a “search for normalcy.” Since 2010, the sheer extent of the country’s dysfunction after decades of military dictatorship has overshadowed prospects for change as has the mass exodus of Rohingya in 2017 after a brutal campaign by the military. Amid these quandaries, it is useful to focus on what is feasible for the country in terms of transitioning to what can be understood as “normal”, or at least on a trajectory towards “normalization”. Framing Myanmar’s domestic prospects is also the reality that the last decade has been distinctly abnormal for the whole world. Reform in Myanmar means working methodically to untangle the messy, convoluted knot that is Myanmar’s governance, politics, and economics and being patient throughout the process. All things considered, Myanmar is progressing in important ways that should neither be taken for granted nor forgotten.
- Topic:
- Politics, History, Conflict, and Dictatorship
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia and Myanmar
64. The War is Dead, Long Live the War? Counterterrorism after the Trump Presidency
- Author:
- Jonny Hall
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- In his re-election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly claimed to be ending America's 'endless wars'. In this Strategic Update, Jonny Hall examines this claim by reviewing the Trump administration's counterterrorism policies over the last four years, showing that although there has been recent concrete progress towards withdrawal, this does not constitute an ending the so-called 'forever wars'.
- Topic:
- War, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
65. Old Issues, New Threats: Mine Action and IEDs in Urban Environments
- Author:
- Dave Luke
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- The nature of conflict is changing. Mine Action’s policy and practices are therefore coming under strain from the contemporary conflict trends of urbanisation and non-state armed groups (NSAG) using improvised explosive devices (IEDs). This Strategic Update considers if there is a paradigm shift underway or if the current frictions are growth pains for this generation of humanitarian responders.
- Topic:
- Weapons, Landmines, and IED
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
66. Axis of Convenience? Israel and China in a multipolar world
- Author:
- Vuk Vuksanovic
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Despite being one of the most important allies of the United States in the Middle East, Israel has been building a new partnership with China since 2013. The repositioning is motivated by changes in the country’s strategic environment, its crisis in the relationship with the United States during the Obama years, and its economic and infrastructural needs. However, Israel is still deeply anchored in its alliance with the United States, which will impose limitations on how far its partnership with China can grow. For now, nevertheless, this relationship attests to the new geopolitical reality of the 21st century in which even the most ardent US allies, such as Israel, must hedge their bets and diversify their partnerships by engaging China.
- Topic:
- Partnerships, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and United States of America
67. China and COVID-19: a shock to its economy, a metaphor for its development
- Author:
- George Magnus
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- The Chinese government’s draconian actions to control the coronavirus seem to be producing a remarkable economic contraction. As so many are unable to attend or resume work at the moment, the government’s palliative economic measures may gain little traction. Although the demand shock will eventually fade, other longer-term issues will surely endure. The supply shock will be less obvious but more corrosive. The government’s questionable conduct in managing the public health crisis has unveiled significant features about governance in Xi’s China that can be mapped on to China’s development. While this crisis is the biggest challenge Xi has faced, there is little doubt that he will survive it, champion the party’s role in the nation’s rescue, and feel emboldened to continue with his authoritarian governance. Yet it is this that, in the long run, will prove incompatible with China’s economic development ambitions.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
68. Battleground Southeast Asia: China's Rise and America's Options
- Author:
- Charles Dunst
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Southeast Asia, while still a reservoir of goodwill for the US, has in recent years come increasingly under China's umbrella. In this Strategic Update, Charles Dunst analyzes China's expansion there, discusses Southeast Asians' American predeliction, and offers steps the US can take to "win back" the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, International Affairs, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
69. Making Sense of Technological Spheres of Influence
- Author:
- Valentin Weber
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- The deterioration of Sino-American relations and the rise of novel forms of statecraft have given way to a worrying new feature of the international system: technological spheres of influence. In this Strategic Update, Valentin Weber explains how we have arrived at this novel geopolitical arrangement, where in the world the greatest contestation lies, and what the future of technospheres may hold.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and International System
- Political Geography:
- China and United States of America
70. Five years after Maidan: Toward a Greater Eurasia?
- Author:
- LSE Ideas
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- This report, building on a workshop held at LSE IDEAS in December 2018 and supported by the Horizon 2020 UPTAKE and Global Challenges Research Fund COMPASS projects, brings together some of the UK’s foremost scholars on Russia, the EU and the post-Soviet space to evaluate the challenges and opportunities facing Russia’s 'Greater Eurasia’ foreign policy concept.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus