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2. Winter is Coming: The Baltics and The Russia-Ukraine War
- Author:
- Leon Hartwell, Agnė Rakštytė, Julia Ryng, and Ēriks Kristiāns Selga
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- In this LSE IDEAS Special Report, the authors focus on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Baltics. The report highlights both collective and country-level impacts and responses to the conflict. It is argued that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been among the top supporters of Ukraine, not merely in terms of military aid, but also with regards to providing substantial diplomatic and humanitarian support during Ukraine’s darkest hour since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Moreover, it is argued that this literal and metaphorical winter will be a key challenge, not only for Ukraine, but also for the Baltics. Given how closely the fate of Ukraine is intertwined with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the manner in which the Baltics and NATO respond to the winter could significantly influence the Russia-Ukraine war. A key strategic priority for the Baltics and NATO should be to promote resilience of everything from defense to energy security. Accordingly, the Report concludes with a variety of key policy recommendations aimed at the Baltics, EU and NATO.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, European Union, Conflict, Resilience, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Baltic States
3. Hedging by Default: The Limits of EU “Strategic Autonomy” in a Binary World Order
- Author:
- Richard Higgott and Simon Reich
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- For some time, international relations has trended in the direction of an American and Chinese dominated binary world order. While the Trump administration has been an accelerator not a cause of this trend between 2016 and 2020, not coincidentally the post 2016 era has also seen key EU figures move to develop a strategy of greater "strategic autonomy". This interest in strategic autonomy was, in no small part, a reflection of growing European distrust in the reliability of both China and, increasingly, the USA. The paper shows, in contrast to the Cold War era during which the EU was unambiguously aligned, how the EU now appears to have embarked on a hedging strategy, albeit implemented more by default than design. In its desire to defend its core interests the EU appears to lean to one side or the other on an issue by issue basis in at least seven key policy domains identified in the paper. This approach is seen to be the outcome of its dual desire to articulate the values of its much touted “Geopolitical Commission" at the same time as it tries to continue its traditional institutional commitment to multilateralism. The paper concludes that the ambiguity present in this endeavour to straddle the realist-liberal fence only serves to expose the limitations of the strategy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
4. Authoritarian protectionism in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe: diversity, commonality and resistance
- Author:
- Luke Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Authoritarianism has become a major buzzword of global politics today. But the public debate has often focused on headline-catching cases of democratic decline. In the European Union (EU), Hungary and Poland, have tended to dominate discussion and critique with the implication that a modern-day ‘containment’ strategy might suffice to withstand the authoritarian advance. This brings dangers for how we think about politics in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE), involving a problematic reading of the region as a source of threat to democracy, rather than a theatre for its renewal. This new LSE IDEAS report, Authoritarian protectionism in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe: diversity, commonality and resistance, seeks to provide a wider regional contextualisation through the examination of Hungary and Poland in tandem with four other case studies in the region: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Romania and Slovakia. The paper argues that the recent histories of these states provide a vantage point for reflection on the broader tendencies driving democratic decay globally. As the populaces of these states have shown tremendous civic energy in their willingness to resist authoritarianism, often in very large numbers, these case studies also point to the need to re-frame how this topic is discussed in the European public sphere. They suggest we should highlight how events in the region may be a harbinger of new opportunities for democratic advance. The snapshot comparative analysis of these states is undertaken through the frame of what the author, Dr Luke Cooper, calls authoritarian protectionism. This emphasises the importance of a politics of ethnonational partisanship to the contemporary challenge to democracy. In the cases examined in the report, authoritarian protectionism draws particular attention to the coherence that exists amongst such actors– despite the fact the examples are drawn from the left, centre and right of the political spectrum.
- Topic:
- Politics, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Diversity, and Protectionism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and Southern Europe
5. Germany and the World of Yesterday
- Author:
- Leon Mangasarian
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- In the past six decades, the four pillars of Germany’s post-World War II security model were built and expanded: NATO, the European Union, trans-Atlanticism and free trade. This gave Germans their longest period of peace, making them fantastically rich as the world’s fourth biggest economy. Can Germany’s view of itself as a ‘big Switzerland’ be sustained? Leon Mangasarian argues not. The Biden presidency is providing Germans with a false sense of security, one which means that Germany will fail to build the appropriate policies and NATO alliances Germany desperately needs in order to build a grand strategy of its place in Europe. If that debate is not led by the chancellery then it needs to come from the Bundestag, from the country’s expanding think tank community, the universities and citizen fora.
- Topic:
- NATO, European Union, Economy, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
6. Getting Brexit Started: prospects for a new EU-UK partnership into the 2020s
- Author:
- Andrew Hammond and Tim Oliver
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- The withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) on January 31 was a seminal moment in post-war history, and one that presents challenges and opportunities for both key parties. Yet far from being a single, isolated event, the departure derives from a much broader process of well over a dozen negotiations (a catch-all term used here for formal diplomatic discussions and wider debates about Brexit) between and within the UK and EU about their futures. With so many Brexit negotiations still underway, this paper underlines that the final form of the UK’s departure from the EU is not yet set in stone. Even with a withdrawal deal now ratified, there are multiple scenarios still possible: from a disorderly exit this year, through to the outside prospect of the transition being extended and a deep, comprehensive deal being concluded later in the 2020s. The stakes in play therefore remain huge and historic as both sides seek a new constructive partnership that can hopefully bring significant benefits for both at a time of global geopolitical turbulence.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
7. Europe in a Multipolar World
- Author:
- Benjamin Martill and Lisa ten Brinke
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Power is diffusing from West to East and non-democratic powers are among those rising fastest. These changes have been in the offing for decades, but their effects are now increasingly manifest. Where does Europe stand within this emerging multipolar order? Is there a European ‘pole’ in the international system, and — if so — what is its contribution to the emerging order? These are important questions at the forefront of policymakers’ minds. Benjamin Martill and Lisa ten Brinke examine in more detail the position of Europe — and the EU — in a multipolar world.
- Topic:
- European Union, Democracy, and International System
- Political Geography:
- Europe